Skeptical Science

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #20

Sun, 19 May 2013 10:39:51 EST

SkS Highlights

On May 15, the peer-reviewed paper, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature was published in the scientific journal, Environmental Research Letters. The paper presents The Consensus Project (TCP) – a survey of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers by our volunteer, citizen science team at Skeptical Science. The analysis found a 97% consensus among papers taking a position on the cause of global warming in the peer-reviewed literature that humans are responsible.

Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature by Dana & John Cook generated a much discussion with some readers challenging the validity of the results of the newly published TCP. John Cook's Measure the climate consensus yourself with our Interactive Rating System and John Hartz's 2013 SkS News Bulletin #12: The Consensus Project rounded out the posts devoted to the TCP.

As discussed below, the paper generated an immense amount of media coverage. There is also a website, Facebook page, and Twitter account associated with TCP, to make it easy for people to spread the word about these important results. More details on this to come next week.

Toon of the Week

Quote of the Week

"Climate is a complicated system but there is no change at all in our understanding of climate sensitivity [to carbon dioxide] and where the climate is headed," he said. "Our understanding of sensitivity is based on the Earth's history, not on climate models, and we have good data on how the Earth responded in the past when carbon dioxide changed. So there is no reason to change the forecast for the long term." - Prof. James Hansen

Global warming has not stalled, insists world's best-known climate scientist by Damian Carrington, The Guradian, May 17, 2013

The Week in Review

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20B by John Hartz
2013 SkS News Bulletin #12: The Consensus Project by John Hartz
Measure the climate consensus yourself with our Interactive Rating System by John Cook
Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature by Dana & John Cook
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20A by John Hartz
Schmitt and Happer manufacture doubt by Dumb Scientists
The last time carbon dioxide concentrations were around 400ppm: a snapshot from Arctic Siberia by John Mason
2013 SkS News Bulletin #11: Alberta Tar Sands and Keystone XL Pipeline by John Hartz
Another Piece of the Global Warming Puzzle - More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake by Dana

Rebuttal Articles Updates

The Consensus Project results have been incorporated into the rebuttals to the denier myths There is no consensus and IPCC is alarmist.

Coming Soon

The Consensus Project Social Media (John Cook)
2013 News Bulletin #13 (John Hartz)
Has the rate of surface warming changed? 16 year revisited (Kevin C)
Weathering of rocks: guide to a long-term carbon-sink (John Mason)
2013 SkS News Roundup #21B (John Hartz)
Will Tropical Forests Remain Carbon Sinks? (AlexanderAc)
Scientists use crowd-sourcing to help map global CO2 emissions (John Hartz)
2013 SkS News Roundup #21B (John Hartz)

In the Works

Climate for the Trees (jg)
How did Ancient Coral Survive in a High CO2 World? (Rob Painting)
A tale told in maps and charts: Texas in the National Climate Assessment (Dana)
Agnotology, Climastrology, and Replicability Examined in a New Study (Dana)

SkS in the News

The consensus project and Cook et al. (2013) discussed in Dana and John Cook's Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature generated an immense amount of news coverage. This includes newspaper and magazine articles, television and radio intervies, Tweets from President Obama and other prominent influential figures, and blog posts about the paper, its results, and its importance. We have created a page cataloguing the media coverage of our paper. If you know of any media coverage which is not listed on the page, please let us know in the comments and we'll add it.

SkS Spotlights

The mission of US-based Interfaith Power & Light (IPL) is to be faithful stewards of Creation by responding to global warming through the promotion of energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy. This campaign intends to protect the earth’s ecosystems, safeguard the health of all Creation, and ensure sufficient, sustainable energy for all.

Interfaith Power & Light effort began in 1998 with Episcopal Power & Light and the support of Grace Cathedral as a unique coalition of Episcopal churches aggregated to purchase renewable energy. In 2000, this Episcopal effort broadened its focus, brought in other faith partners, and California Interfaith Power & Light was born.

California IPL developed a successful organizational model that engaged hundreds of congregations, educated thousands of people of faith about the moral and ethical mandate to address global warming, and helped pass California’s landmark climate and clean energy laws. Building on California’s success, this model has now been adopted by 38 sister state affiliates, and IPL is working to establish Interfaith Power & Light programs in every state.

Measure the climate consensus yourself with our Interactive Rating System

Fri, 17 May 2013 01:53:14 EST

The Consensus Project was a long, ambitious effort by many volunteers, lasting 12 months from beginning to submission of our paper to peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters. The project involved citizen science from start to finish - from the rating of the abstracts to the collection of scientists' emails to crowd-funding the journal fee to make the paper free to the public. It was an enormous collaborative effort that the entire Skeptical Science community contributed to. The effort has resulted in strong media interest including a tweet from President Obama.

We want our results to be transparent and replicable, so that anybody can quantify the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming for themselves. Thus we've created an interactive rating system that lets Skeptical Science readers rate the abstracts from The Consensus Project. You can then compare your ratings to the results from Quantifying The Consensus. Note that your ratings are private - no specific ratings will be publicly attributed to individuals.

All papers receive two types of ratings - the category of research and the level of endorsement of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Here are general definitions of each category and endorsement level, although we've also provided a more detailed set of guidelines.

Level of Endorsement

Explicit Endorsement of AGW with quantification
Explicit Endorsement of AGW without quantification
Implicit Endorsement of AGW
Neutral
Implicit Rejection of AGW
Explicit Rejection of AGW without quantification
Explicit Rejection of AGW with quantification

2013 SkS News Bulletin #12: The Consensus Project

Sat, 18 May 2013 00:10:24 EST

Obama tweets analysis that 97% of peer-reviewed science confirms human-caused global warming by Lauremce Lewis, Daily Kos, May 16, 2013

Climate denial's death knell
Climate research nearly unanimous
Consensus study
Is the science settled?
It's official! Humans caused global warming.
Global warming consensus: We can haz it!
'Overwhelming' consensus for manmade warming
Scientists agree (again)
Scientists agree global warming is man-made
Scientific 'consensus' that humans to blame
Scientists say united on global warming
Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree

Climate Denial's Death Knell

A new survey conducted by a team of volunteers at Skeptical Science has definitively confirmed the scientific consensus in climate science literature -97 percent of peer-reviewed papers agree that global warming is happening and human activities are responsible.

Climate Denial's Death Knell: 97 Percent of Peer-Reviewed Science Confirms Manmade Global Warming, Consensus Overwhelming by Brendan DeMelle, DeSmog Blog, MAy 15, 2011

Climate research nearly unanimous

Of more than 4,000 academic papers published over 20 years, 97.1% agreed that climate change is anthropogenic.

Climate research nearly unanimous on human causes, survey finds by Suzanne Goldenberg, May 15, 2013

Consensus study

Research suggests support for climate change action increases if the public is aware of a scientific consensus on the evidence for human causes. But how many scientists really agree? A new study, out today, shows very few studies reject that climate change is human caused, and hopes to promote this message by encouraging the public to get involved.

A team of volunteers from climate science blog,Skeptical Science, rated the abstracts of nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed papers based on their level of agreement that climate change is human caused. The new study aims to identify the level of consensus by analysing 20 years of climate change literature.

Consensus study: fewer than one per cent of climate studies reject human causes by Mat Hope and Freya Roberts, The Carbon Brief, May 16, 2013

Is the science settled?

A group of volunteers have given up their time over the last few years to answer the question, once and for all, as to whether the "science is settled".

Is the science settled? by Dana Nuccitelli, ABC Environment, May 16, 2013

It's official! Humans caused global warming.

A comprehensive analysis of 4,000 studies on climate change published over last 21 years has revealed an overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that humans are to blame for global warming, researchers claim.

It's official! Humans caused global warming, ZeeNews.com, May 16, 2013

Global warming consensus: We can haz it!

The issue at hand is this: What is the level of agreement in the scientific community about the reality of climate change and about the human role in climate change? The new paper, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature, address this question and the answer is very clear. The number of climate scientists who question the reality of global warming or the human role in global warming is vanishingly small.

Global Warming Consensus: We can haz it! by Greg Laden, Greg Laden's Blog on Science Blog, May 16, 2013,

Largest study of peer-reviewed literature to date

A new peer-reviewed study has confirmed again that there is an overwhelming consensus on the human-driven cause of climate disruption. The study, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature by John Cook and a large number of contributors to the website Skeptical Science (Cook et al 2013), looked at 11,944 papers over a 21 year period and assigned each to one of three categories on the basis of the papers’ abstracts: endorse, reject, or take no position on the consensus. Of the papers that either endorsed or rejected the consensus, 97.1% of the papers and 98.4% of the papers’ authors endorsed the consensus. In addition, 1200 authors of the analyzed papers were contacted and asked to self-rate their own papers for level of endorsement. Of the self-rated papers that either endorsed or rejected the consensus, 97.2% of the papers and 96.4% of the authors endorsed the consensus.

Largest study of peer-reviewed literature to date finds overwhelming climate disruption consensus by Brian Angliss, Scholars & Rogues, May 15, 2013

'Overwhelming' consensus for manmade warming

A comprehensive assessment of climate change research has found an overwhelming consensus among scientists that recent warming is human-induced.

'Overwhelming' consensus for manmade warming: review by Sarah Clarke, ABC News, May 16, 2013

Scientists Agree (Again)

Public opinion on the topic of climate change is notoriously fickle, changing -- quite literally sometimes -- with the weather. The latest bit of evidence on this: Yale's April 2013 climate change survey, which found, among other things, that Americans' conviction that global warming is happening had dropped by seven points, to 63 percent, over the preceding six months. The decline, the authors surmised, was most likely due to "the cold winter of 2012-13 and an unusually cold March just before the survey was conducted."

Scientists Agree (Again): Climate Change Is Happening by Tom Zellar Jr., Huffington Post, May 16, 2013

Scientists agree global warming is man-made

An overwhelming majority of scientists agree humans have caused global warming, according to a study of scientific literature produced over the past two decades that claims to be the most comprehensive of its kind.

Scientists agree global warming is man-made by Pilita Clark, Financial Times, May 16, 2013

Scientific 'consensus' that humans to blame

A review of 12,000 scientific papers has found the consensus among scientists that humans are to blame for climate change is "overwhelming" and the dissenting view was held by less than two per cent of scientists.

Scientific 'consensus' that humans to blame for climate change by Jonathan Pearlman, The Telegraph, May 16, 2013

Scientists say united on global warming

Ninety-seven percent of scientists say global warming is mainly man-made but a wide public belief that experts are divided is making it harder to gain support for policies to curb climate change, an international study showed on Thursday.

Scientists say united on global warming, at odds with public view by Alister Doyle, Reuters, May 15, 2013

Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree

Our team of citizen science volunteers at Skeptical Science has published a new survey in the journal Environmental Research Letters of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers, as the Guardian reports today. This is the most comprehensive survey of its kind, and the inspiration of this blog's name: Climate Consensus – the 97%.

Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree warming is man-made by Dana Nuccitelli, The Guardian, May 16, 2013

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20B

Sun, 19 May 2013 03:24:42 EST

Burning tar sands = 'unsolvable' climate crisis: Hansen
Climate change has shifted the North and South Poles
Climate change is happening… So what?
Fiji's villagers move uphill to escape rising seas
Global warming has not stalled
Go fish (somewhere else): Warming oceans are altering catches
Ignoring the cost of climate change is bad business
Mount Everest's ice is melting
Profits vs. disaster in Arctic meltdown
Warmer springs linked to dwindling snow in Rocky Mountains
Why we know about the greenhouse gas effect
Zombie climate sceptic theories survive

Burning tar sands = 'unsolvable' climate crisis: Hansen

Fresh off his resignation from NASA, leading climate scientist James Hansen is making the rounds this week, warning media and lawmakers that not only are we heading for a "tremendously chaotic" climate, but if we dig up and burn Canadian tar sands, the climate crisis will be rendered "unsolvable."

Burning Tar Sands = 'Unsolvable' Climate Crisis: Hansen by Jacob Chamberlain, Common Dreams, May 17, 2013

Climate change has shifted the North and South Poles

Increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and other ice losses worldwide have helped to move the North Pole several centimeters east each year since 2005.

Climate Change Has Shifted the Locations of Earth's North and South Poles by Richard A. Lovett, Nature magazine, Scientific American, May 14, 2013

Climate change is happening… So what?

Seven in 10 U.S. citizens believe climate change is real and happening now. Yet most have never even contacted a government official about the issue, let alone volunteered with an environmental organisation or taken other action.

These findings are part of an exploration of Climate Change in the American Mind issued by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

Climate Change Is Happening… So What? by Silvia Romanelli, Inter Press Service (IPS), May 16, 2013

Fiji's villagers move uphill to escape rising seas

Fiji's picturesque Natewa Bay must be a hard place to leave, and for none more so than the villagers of Vunidogoloa, who are preparing to abandon their ancestral home in the face of the rising sea. But they have little choice: big waves now overtop a once-protective sea wall, their salt-polluted vegetation is dying. They are to move as a community a mile inland, and uphill, to a new site on the northern island of Vanua Levu. Devout Methodists, they have named Kenani, Fijian for Canaan – the promised land.

Fiji's villagers move uphill to escape global warming's rising seas by Geoffry Lean, The Telegraph, May 17, 2013

Global warming has not stalled

Suggestions that global warming has stalled are a "diversionary tactic" from "deniers" who want the public to be confused over climate change, according to the world's best-known climate scientist. Prof James Hansen, who first alerted the world to climate change in 1988, said on Friday: "It is not true that the temperature has not changed in the two decades."

Global warming has not stalled by Damian Carrington, The Guardian, May 17, 2013

Go fish (somewhere else): Warming oceans are altering catches

The new study in Nature shows these anecdotes aren't simply a fluke. Data from fish catches from around the world show it's happening everywhere the ocean is warming — which is just about everywhere.

Go Fish (Somewhere Else): Warming Oceans Are Altering Catches by Richard Harris, NPR, May 15, 2013

Ignoring the cost of climate change is bad business

In the financial markets, volatility is rising and all manner of derivatives are employed to hedge against potentially catastrophic losses. In the real world, the climate is becoming more volatile, yet cities and businesses – make that entire industries – are doing little to protect themselves from extreme weather.

Ignoring the cost of climate change is bad business by Eric Reguly, The Globe and Mail, May 17, 2013

Mount Everest's ice is melting

Earth's global thaw has reached Mount Everest, the world's tallest peak, researchers said today (May 14) at the Meeting of the Americas in Cancun, Mexico.

Glaciers in the Mount Everest region have shrunk by 13 percent in the last 50 years and the snowline has shifted upward by 590 feet (180 meters), Sudeep Thakuri, a graduate student at the University of Milan in Italy, said in a statement. Located in the Himalaya Mountains on the border between China and Nepal, Everest's summit is 29,029 feet (8,848 m) above sea level.

Mount Everest's Ice is Melting by Becky Oskin, LiveScience, May 14, 2013

Profits vs. disaster in Arctic meltdown

Many eyes are turning north to the Arctic, some in horror at the rapid decline of a key component of our life support system, others in eager anticipation at the untapped resources beneath the vanishing snow and ice.

“I’ve worked in the north for 21 years and the scale and speed of change up there is astonishing,” said Douglas Clark of the University of Saskatchewan.

“These changes, taken as whole, and reflected in our report, keep me awake at night,” Clark told IPS.

Profits vs. Disaster in Arctic Meltdown by Stephen Leahy, International Press Service, IPS, May 16, 2013

Warmer springs linked to dwindling snow in Rocky Mountains

Snow cover across the Rockies has been shrinking since 1980. This meltwater accounts for 80 percent of the annual water supply for more than 70 million people in the U.S.

Warmer Springs Linked to Dwindling Snow in Rocky Mountains by Denise Chow and LiveScience, Scientific American, May 15, 2013

Why we know about the greenhouse gas effect

Our understanding of how certain atmospheric gases trap heat dates back almost 200 years to 1824 when Joseph Fourier described what we know as the greenhouse effect. Fourier, a French mathematician and physicist, asked what seems to be a simple question: why doesn’t the planet keep heating up as it receives sunlight? What is regulating our atmospheric temperature?

Why we know about the greenhouse gas effect by David Wogan, Scientific American, May 16, 2013

Zombie climate sceptic theories survive

Study finds overwhelming scientific consensus that humans have caused global warming, but media still hasn't caught up.

Zombie climate sceptic theories survive only in newspapers and on TV by Graham Readfearn. PlanetOz, The Guardian, May 17, 2013

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #19

Sun, 12 May 2013 03:41:28 EST

SkS Highlights

KK Tung posted part 2 of his article, The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years?. It generated an ongoing discussion with Dr. Tung on the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in global climate change.

Who is Paying for Global Warming? by Agnostic suammarizes the findings of Yang and Cui (2012) which details the funding and increased use of coal likely over the next decade.

Toon of the Week

H/T to Joe Romm's Climate Progress blog.

Quote of the Week

"It is symbolic, a point to pause and think about where we have been and where we are going," said Professor Ralph Keeling, who oversees the measurements on a Hawaian volcano, which were begun by his father in 1958. "It's like turning 50: it's a wake up to what has been building up in front of us all along."

Global carbon dioxide in atmosphere passes milestone level by Damian Carrington, The Guardian, May 10, 2013

The Week in Review

The evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC A Peter Hadfield video posted by Dana
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B by John Hartz
What you need to know about climate sensitivity by Dana
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19A by John Hartz
Who is Paying for Global Warming? by Agnostic
The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2. A guest post by KK Tung
2013 SkS News Bulletin #10: Alberta Tar Sands and Keystone XL Pipeline by John Hartz
Distinguishing Between Short-Term Variability and Long-Term Trends by Dana

Coming Soon

Organic vapours affect clouds leading to previously unidentified climate cooling (John Hartz)
Another Piece of the Global Warming Puzzle - More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake (Dana)
2013 SkS News Bulletin #11 (John Hartz)
A Rough Guide to the Jet Stream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to enhanced Arctic warming (John Mason)
2013 SkS News Roundup #20A (John Hartz)
Schmitt and Happer manufacture doubt (Dumb Scientist)
Major Skeptical Science Announcement (Dana and John Cook)
2013 SkS News Roundup #20B (John Hartz)

In the Works

Climate for the Trees (jg)
How did Ancient Coral Survive in a High CO2 World? (Rob Painting)
Has the rate of surface warming changed? 16 year revisited (Kevin C)
Tropical forests still carbon sink by the end of this century? (Alexander Ac)
Weathering of rocks: guide to a long-term carbon-sink (John Mason)
A tale told in maps and charts: Texas in the National Climate Assessment (Dana)
Agnotology, Climastrology, and Replicability Examined in a New Study (Dana)

SkS in the News

The Skeptical Science one-liner myth rebuttals were posted by Climate Progress, Doug Craig's Blog, Jeff Weintraub, RenewEconomy, IBI Watch, and Tweeted by Carl Zimmer.

John Cook's request for climate blogs to Participate in a survey measuring consensus in climate research was posted by Jeff Masters, James' Empty Blog, Hot Topic, Yale Forum, Stoat, and HotWhopper.

Carbon Brief used several SkS resources in discussing the surface warming slowdown.

Gaham Readfearn used the SkS 'it's the sun' rebuttal to debunk denial from The Australian.

Suzuka University of Medical Science is using SkS resources on extreme weather in their exams.

Dana's Distinguishing Between Short-Term Variability and Long-Term Trends was referenced at HotWhopper.

Scholars and Rogues used SkS resources in showing how much heat the air and oceans can store.

Media Matters, the Columbia Journalism Review, and Slate's Bad Astronomy referenced SkS resources on CO2 as plant food in debunking nonsense from Happer and Schmitt at the Wall Street Journal.

The Aotearoa Independent Media Centre referenced SkS posts on continued global warming.

SkS Spotlights

The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment is a research centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

The Institute was established in May 2008 with the support of philanthropists Jeremy and Hannelore Grantham, through their Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment.

The Institute's vision is a world in which climate change and other global environmental challenges are managed effectively to promote prosperity and well-being.

The purpose of the Institute is:

to increase knowledge and understanding by performing world-class research on climate change and the environment;
to promote better informed decision-making about climate change and the environment by engaging with a wide range of key audiences around the world; and
to educate and train new generations of researchers through our undergraduate and postgraduate programmes.

The Institute's principles are:

Independence: We carry out research and other work without interference from our sponsors and supporters.
Rigour: We base our research findings and views on robust evidence and reasoning, and not on ideology.
Internationalism: We are located in the UK, but we aim to advance understanding and inform decision-making across the world.
Leadership: We seek to guide thinking, discussion and decision-making in the UK and beyond on effective solutions to global environmental challenges.
Collaboration: We are committed to working effectively together and with our partners in the UK and across the world.
Engagement: We work constructively with decision-makers among the public, businesses and policy-makers.

The Grantham Research Institute has five research programmes:

Global response strategies;
Green growth;
Practical aspects of climate policy;
Adaptation and development; and
Resource security.

The last time carbon dioxide concentrations were around 400ppm: a snapshot from Arctic Siberia

Tue, 14 May 2013 08:53:51 EST

Synopsis

During the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene Series of the Cenozoic Era, 3.6 to 2.2 Ma (million years ago), the Arctic was much warmer than it is at the present day (with summer temperatures from 3.6-3.4 Ma some 8^oC warmer than today). That is a key finding of research into a lake-sediment core obtained in Eastern Siberia, which is of exceptional importance because it has provided the longest continuous late Cenozoic land-based sedimentary record thus far. The sedimentary sequence dates from recent times back to 3.6 Ma when the lake was formed by a large extraterrestrial impact. During the warm period, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were close to those of today, at around 400 parts per million, indicative of a strong climate sensitivity signal in the Arctic, which has again warmed very rapidly in recent decades. The lake sediment record has thus provided us with a snapshot of how the Arctic may look in the near future.

Introduction

Geologists divide geological time into Eons (the longest divisions), Eras, Systems and Series. The Pliocene (5.333-2.588 Ma) is the final Series of the Neogene System and the Pleistocene (2.588 Ma-11,700 years ago) is the first Series of the Quaternary System, both being part of the Cenozoic Era, the latest Era of the Phanerozoic Eon.

Just to get that into context, here is all of geological time plotted against the human 12-month calendar year, so that geological time starts on the first second of New Years' Day and the present is the last second of New Years' Eve. On such a scale, the whole Cenozoic Era equates to a tiny bit of late December!

So let's zoom in by doing the same exercise just with the Cenozoic Era. Now the Pliocene and Pleistocene Series occupy December, although the most recent Series, the Holocene - from 11,700 years ago to now - is such a short timeframe that it remains invisible in among the last seconds of New Years' Eve!

Numbers: millions of years ago. Data: International Commission on Stratigraphy. Graphics: author.

To set the scene, the Pliocene and Pleistocene Earth had a very similar geography to that of the present day in terms of the distribution of continents, with the closure of the Panama Isthmus, forming a land-bridge between North and South America, being a significant development around 3 Ma. The cooling climatic trend that had been underway since the early Oligocene (33 Ma) continued down into the alternating series of glacials and interglacials later in the Pleistocene. Pliocene and early Pleistocene sea levels were significantly higher than those of the present day, with marine sedimentary rocks belonging to this time occurring on land in various parts of the world. Here in the UK, the lower Pleistocene Red Crag Formation, with a well-preserved fossil fauna of bivalves and other shells, many of familiar types, forms extensive cliffs along parts of the East Anglia coast, bearing testament to those higher sea-levels.

above: landslip-prone cliffs of lower Pleistocene Red Crag Formation, Walton-on-the-Naze, Suffolk, UK. Photo: author.

The cooling occurred gradually and in a stepped fashion. Warmer and cooler periods, but with an overall cooling trend, occurred throughout the Pliocene and up until the so-called Mid-Pleistocene Transition on cycles of ~41,000 years: the cyclic pattern being due to orbital or Milankovitch Cycles. Following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, a 100,000 year glacial-interglacial cycle predominated.

The cyclic, alternating warm and cool periods each left their mark on the marine oxygen isotope record, something that was first predicted in a 1947 paper by chemist and paleoclimatology pioneer Harold Urey. Oceanic sediment cores show that the ratios of the isotopes oxygen 16 and 18, as measured in the calcite shells of fossil foraminifera, vary through geological time with temperature. This is because oxygen 16 (in water vapour) is more easily lost to the atmosphere during ocean evaporation: in turn, during cold cycles, much more of it gets trapped in snow and ice. Hence, the O16/18 ratio varies at any given time depending on the volume of ice present on the planet.

Via the detailed record of warm and cool climatic stages that has been reconstructed using oxygen isotope data going back through time, each warm or cool period has been given a Marine Isotope Stage number, starting with the present Interglacial, which is Marine Isotope Stage 1. Because the sequence begins with a warm stage, other warm stages have odd numbers and cool stages have even numbers. It's worth mentioning what these Stages are because they are referenced so frequently in the research itself.

The research: Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia

Lake El'gygytgyn, pronounced El-Guh-Git-Kin (but commonly called 'Lake E'!) is located in the northeast Russian Arctic, 100 kilometres north of the Arctic Circle. It was formed at 3.6 Ma when an extraterrestrial object estimated to be about 1km in diameter impacted, blasting out a crater some 18 kilometres in width. After the impact, the crater filled with water and sedimentation commenced. The lake is up to 170m deep and beneath its floor there occur bedded lake sediments some 300m in thickness that cover the impact-shattered volcanic rocks (termed impact-breccia), of Cretaceous age. For a detailed geological description of the crater, the following reference gives an interesting read:

http://www.geo.umass.edu/lake_e/publications/Gutrov2007.pdf

Skeptical Science has covered research at this lake before here, but on May 9th 2013 a new paper was published in the journal Science that gives more details of the core and the paleoclimatic evidence it is yielding up. Written by an international team (lead writer: Julie Brigham-Grette of the University of Massachusetts Amherst), the paper describes how drilling was done from an artificially-thickened ice-platform on the lake early in 2009, with resultant cores covering a complete 3.6 million year record spanning 318m of sediments. That is an impressive accomplishment: the record preserved by the Greenland ice, as sampled by ice-coring, stretches back no more than ca. 140,000 years.

above: the 100-ton drilling-rig on the lake. The ice had to be artificially thickened to over 2m in order to safely take the weight. Photo: Jens Karls.

The part of Siberian Russia in which the lake is situated is one of the few areas of the Arctic that were not glaciated (and thereby glacially eroded) during the later Pleistocene glaciations. This is why the sedimentary record is so well-preserved at 'Lake E': glaciers are thuggish things that move lots of boulders and other heavy debris around, so only non-glaciated environments have much chance of staying undisturbed for such a long time.

The drillcore revealed that the lake sediments are pelagic in nature, i.e. they were deposited very slowly as fine, clay-sized sediment particles settled out of suspension. Think of how a muddly puddle slowly clears up if left undisturbed and you have the picture. Sediment would have been supplied via the streams that flow into the lake and by windblown dust.

For the first ca. 20,000 years following the impact, the sediments reveal few signs of life, but after that there exists a rich assemblage of fossil pollen. The pollen allowed the team to reconstruct the types of vegetation living around the lake, and how it changed through time in response to changes in temperatures and precipitation. Many plants that thrived there in the past, such as the Douglas Fir and Hemlock that are typical of Boreal forests, do not do so today: the area is currently tundra dominated by mosses with stunted trees such as prostrate willow and dwarf birch and is underlain by permafrost.

above: Lake El'gygytgyn in the summer. Photo: Julie Brigham-Grette

The paper reports that the pollen reconstructions show that the climate of the area in the middle Pliocene, between 3.6 to 3.4 Ma, was much warmer than that of today. The mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was +15-16^oC compared to +8^oC today. Rainfall, indicated by the influx rates of sediment, was also substantially greater in the past at 600mm/year compared to the 200m/yr average of today.

Cooling events did occur during the late Pliocene: the largest occurred between 3.31 and 3.28 Ma, when steppe-like habitats developed around the lake. This event, a punctuation mark in the overall warm theme, is thought to have been related to a period in which the influence of the North Atlantic Current declined significantly. However, from 3.26 to 2.6 Ma, warm and moist conditions prevailed, with warmest month temperatures 3-6^oC greater than those of today.

above: sections of drillcore from Lake El’gygytgyn. Five distinct facies (sediments with specific sets of characteristics) are present. Facies A, only noted at intervals during the Pleistocene, was deposited in the presence of perennial lake-ice cover. Facies D and E are restricted to the Pliocene. Image from the supplementary material for Brigham-Grette et al, 2013.

The first sign in the lake sediments of cyclic cold spells (glacials), driven by changes in insolation via the orbital Milankovitch Cycles, appears at 2.6 Ma, with such conditions becoming relatively common from 2.3 Ma onwards. The indicator is a change in sediment characteristics (termed 'facies') indicative of the periodic development of year-round lake ice-cover. However, only from 1.8 Ma onwards do all cold cycles produce sediments indicative of perennial ice cover. Thus, the transition from the warmth of the Pliocene down into the cold of the later Pleistocene occurred in a stepwise fashion. The stepwise pattern was also reflected by the vegetation: conifers disappear from the record at 2.71-2.69 Ma and the period 2.6 through to 2.53 Ma saw the transition from forest to a treeless, shrubby environment as the protracted warmth came to an end. By 2.2 Ma, Arctic summers during the warm cycles were - predominantly - no warmer than at present.

That these initial cold cycles were not as drastic as those later in the Pleistocene is also evidenced by sea level variability across individual cycles of only ~70m, compared with ~125m for Marine Isotope Stage 2 - the last glacial maximum.

Another interesting discovery that warrants inclusion in this piece, although it features in an older (2012) paper by the same team, is that 'Lake E' also records the fact that during the Pleistocene there occurred a number of 'super-interglacials'. An example is Marine Isotope Stage 31 which occurred at about 1.07 Ma and in which temperatures in the area were some 4-5^oC warmer than present. Climate simulations have difficulty in producing such a degree of warmth with the then greenhouse gas and orbital (Milankovitch) forcings alone, suggesting there must be some other factor at work, such as amplifying feedbacks.

The fact that the sheer amount of Arctic warming that occurred exceeds that simulated by climate models is both interesting and somewhat worrying: Arctic Amplification has only emerged as a realtime signal in recent years and, as the graph below indicates, modelling has not handled its effects particularly well with Arctic sea-ice degradation being a classic example.

above: observed Arctic sea-ice extent (thick maroon line), with the other lines being modelled forecasts and the thicker black line being their mean. When someone tells you that the models don't get it right, it's worth pointing out that this works both ways!

At the other end of the world, investigations into this 400ppm carbon dioxide world of the past have yielded other indications of the type of world we are heading into. Sediment cores obtained during the ANDRILL drilling programme yielded results with which the 'Lake E' data are in good agreement. Writing in Nature in 2009, concerning an early (5-3 Ma) Pliocene Antarctic sediment core section, Naish et al note:

Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS [West Antarctic Ice-Sheet], which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to approx 3 °C warmer than today and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as approx 400 p.p.m.v.

A second 2009 paper in Nature compared simulations of past Antarctic ice-cap behavour with the sedimentary history obtained from drillcore and determined that the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet had undergone major and perhaps total retreat during Marine Isotope Stage 31 and in other super-interglacials. The fact that there exists strong evidence for past major warming and its consequences in both polar regions suggests an interconnectivity between the poles, with the implication that these are effects occurring on a global scale.

2013 almost certainly marks the first year, since the Pliocene, in which rising carbon dioxide concentrations have breached the 400ppm milestone. What next? As Julie Brigham-Grette notes:

"This could tell us where we are going in the near future. In other words, the Earth system response to small changes in carbon dioxide is bigger than suggested by earlier climate models."

To conclude, the Arctic climate response to warm forcing agents is to warm more than models would predict, with other poorly-constrained amplifying feedbacks the likely culprits, and what goes on in the Arctic tends to be reflected in due course by what goes on in the Antarctic. Past warming events during the Pleistocene and Pliocene have seen ice-cap collapse in both areas. Readers will be familiar with the figures: it is estimated that the collapse of the West Antarctica and Greenland ice-sheets would lead to getting on for fourteen metres of sea-level rise over a number of centuries. The results of the studies discussed above show that such events are compatible with a world in which the atmosphere contains ~400ppm of carbon dioxide. How, then, will Marine Isotope Stage 1 (the current interglacial) pan out? It's up to us to decide that one.

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20A

Wed, 15 May 2013 22:30:05 EST

A change in temperature
Arctic waters growing alarmingly acidic
'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise
Canada sells out science
Climate change 'will make hundreds of millions homeless'
Fewer Rain Forests mean less energy
Obama administration outlines new policy the Arctic
Ralph Keeling ponders a sobering milestone
Sea levels are rising - but how quickly?
Swift political action can avert a carbon dioxide crisis
UK government faces an exodus of energy experts
Warmer climate threatens Africa’s vital cassava crop

A change in temperature

Since 1896, scientists have been trying to answer a deceptively simple question: What will happen to the temperature of the earth if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles?

A Change in Temperature by Justin Gillis, New York Times, May 13, 2013

Arctic waters growing alarmingly acidic

In the past 200 years the average acidity of surface waters in the world’s oceans has risen by 30 percent. This is prime evidence of humans really changing the entire planet.

Arctic waters growing alarmingly acidic by Erlend Lånke Solbu, The Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation, ScienceNordic, May 11, 2013

'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise

Researchers have published their most advanced calculation for the likely impact of melting ice on global sea levels.

'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise by Matt McGrath. BBC News, May 14, 2013

Canada sells out science

Over the past few years, the Canadian government has been lurching into antiscience territory. For example, they’ve been muzzling scientists, essentially censoring them from talking about their research. Scientists have fought back against this, though from what I hear with limited success.

But a new development makes the situation appear to be far worse. In a stunning announcement, the National Research Council—the Canadian scientific research and development agency—has now said that they will only perform research that has “social or economic gain”.

This is not a joke. I wish it were.

Canada Sells Out Science by Phil Plait, Bad Astromony Blog, Slate, May 13, 2013

Climate change 'will make hundreds of millions homeless'

It is increasingly likely that hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homelands in the near future as a result of global warming. That is the stark warning of economist and climate change expert Lord Stern following the news last week that concentrations of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere had reached a level of 400 parts per million (ppm).

Climate change 'will make hundreds of millions homeless' by Robin McKie, the Guardioan, May 12, 2013

Fewer Rain Forests Mean Less Energy

The loss of tropical rain forests is likely to reduce the energy output of hydroelectric projects in countries like Brazil that are investing billions of dollars to create power to support economic growth.

That is the conclusion of a group of experts whose findings, released Monday, run counter to the conventional understanding of deforestation’s impact on watersheds.

Fewer Rain Forests Mean Less Energy for Developing Nations, Study Finds by Felicity Barringer, Naew York Times, May 13, 2013

Obama administration outlines new policy for the Arctic

The Obama administration on Friday released a national strategy for the Arctic in advance of Secretary of State John Kerry’s trip next week to Sweden to attend a conference of eight polar nations.

Obama administration outlines new policy for protecting, drilling in the Arctic by Erika Bolstad,McClatchy, Washington Bureau, May 10, 2013

Ralph Keeling ponders a sobering milestone

Climate scientist Ralph Keeling has followed in the footsteps of his father, who pioneered the measurement of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, the younger Keeling talks about the implications of crossing an alarming CO2 threshold this month.

Son of Climate Science Pioneer Ponders A Sobering Milestone by Fen Montaigne, Yale Environment 360, May 14, 2013

Sea levels are rising - but how quickly?

Scientists are warning that the level of the sea may rise by slightly more than previously forecast - but they also say that the very worst predictions look much less likely.

Sea levels are rising - but how quickly? by David Shukman, BBC News, May 14, 2013

Swift political action can avert a carbon dioxide crisis

Carbon dioxide levels have reached an all-time high. But there is some hope if governments take the figures seriously

Climate change: swift political action can avert a carbon dioxide crisis, Editorial Board, The Observer/The Guardian, May 11, 2013

UK government faces an exodus of energy experts

The Government is facing an exodus of senior energy and climate change advisers amid growing concerns that decisive action to tackle global warming is falling victim to Treasury intransigence.

Coalition faces an exodus of energy experts as funding for renewables is held up on grounds of cost by Paul Bignell and Oliver Wright, The Independent, May 11, 2013

Warmer climate threatens Africa’s vital cassava crop

A plant which is a staple food crop for millions of people across Africa is at risk from disease as regional temperatures rise, scientists say.

The plant, cassava, is a significant source of food and income, and is an important industrial crop, and there is concern that serious food shortages may result and poverty worsen.

Experts say the spread of the disease could halve cassava production and threaten the diets of 300 million people.

Warmer climate threatens Africa’s vital cassava crop by Alex Kirby, Climate News Network, May 11, 2013

What you need to know about climate sensitivity

Fri, 10 May 2013 10:31:28 EST

This is a partial re-post of my latest in the Guardian's Climate Consensus – the 97%. It's intended as a basic primer to reference the next time somebody tells you global warming is nothing to worry about because climate sensitivity is low.

What you need to know about climate sensitivity

Clouds are the only plausible feedback that could significantly dampen future global warming. Photograph: Graham Turner for the Guardian

Climate sensitivity is a subject sometimes explored in mainstream media articles. For example, The Economist tried to summarize some recent research on the subject, although as climate scientist Michael Mann and I noted in an article for ABC, they made some key mistakes.

What is climate sensitivity?

We know that humans have increased the greenhouse effect due to the carbon emissions associated with burning fossil fuels. This increased carbon dioxide traps more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, causing a global energy imbalance. There is more energy incoming than escaping, and as a result the planet will warm until it reaches a new balanced energy state (equilibrium), with equal incoming and outgoing energy.

We also know that if we double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the increased greenhouse effect will cause the planet's average surface temperature to warm about 1.2°C (2.2°F) in response. That may not sound like very much, but the difference between an ice age and the current warm period is only about 5°C (9°F). Seemingly small temperature changes make a big difference in the Earth's climate.

In addition, there are feedbacks that can dampen or amplify the warming from the increased greenhouse effect. For example, when ice melts it makes the Earth's surface less reflective, causing it to absorb more sunlight and warm further. A warmer atmosphere will also hold more water vapor, and water vapor is another greenhouse gas.

The term "equilibrium climate sensitivity" refers to the total amount of warming that will occur at the Earth's surface once it reaches a new balanced energy state, including from the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and including these feedback effects.

What are the biggest feedbacks?

Water vapor is probably the largest individual feedback. A 2009 study published in the prestigious journal Science by Andrew Dessler and Steven Sherwood found that, as climate scientists expected, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is increasing by enough to double the warming from the increased greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide.

As discussed above, melting ice is another significant warming feedback. Releases of stored carbon from beneath permafrost and methane from the deep ocean would also amplify global warming.

Unfortunately we don't know of many large negative feedbacks that would dampen global warming. Global plant growth has increased so far, and plants absorb carbon dioxide. But that trend probably won't last as extreme weather events like heat waves and droughts that damage plant life become more common.

Clouds are really the only plausible feedback that could significantly dampen future global warming. They're tricky because clouds cause both warming by increasing the greenhouse effect, and cooling by reflecting sunlight away from the Earth's surface. High clouds tend to have an overall warming effect, while low clouds tend to have an overall cooling effect.

So what types of clouds will become more abundant in a warming world, and what will the net effect on temperatures be?

Click here to read the rest of the story

Another Piece of the Global Warming Puzzle - More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake

Mon, 13 May 2013 02:59:47 EST

Although it is still within the range of model simulations, the rate of global surface air warming over the past decade has slowed. Climate scientists, being scientists, would like to explain exactly why that has happened.

There are several possible explanations. Perhaps it's due to the natural internal variability (short-term noise) in the climate system, with more heat being shifted to the deeper oceans as a result of more recent La Niña events. Perhaps it's due to a smaller global energy imbalance due to more aerosol cooling and lower solar activity offsetting more of the greenhouse gas-caused warming. Perhaps it's a combination of several factors, but which is the main cause of the slowed surface warming over the past decade?

Meehl et al. (2011) found that in their model simulations, there were 'hiatus decades' with little surface warming, but increased deep ocean warming (Figure 1). Similarly, Guemas et al. (2013) concluded that most of the recent slowed surface warming can be attributed to the increased accumulation of heat in the oceans.

Figure 1: Composite global linear trends for hiatus decades (red bars) and other decades (green bars). Positive values for top of the atmosphere (TOA) net radiation (left-hand side) indicate energy accumulating in the system (i.e. global warming). Right-hand side shows ocean heat content decadal trends, for the various ocean layers. From Meehl et al. (2011).

These results are also consistent with several studies showing a recent increase in ocean warming (e.g. Levitus et al. 2012, Nuccitelli et al. 2012, and Balmaseda et al. 2013).

Is this the best explanation for the slowed surface warming, and why is it happening? In a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters, Watanabe et al. (2013) seek to answer these questions.

Model Simulations

Watanabe ran simulations with five general circulation models (GCMs) – CanCM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk-3.6, HadCM3, and MIROC5. In comparing the observed temperature changes to the model simulations, they suggest that the recent surface warming slowdown is due to a large natural flucuation, and/or that some source of bias in climate models is making it difficult for them to simulate it.

They mainly focused their analysis on the MIROC5 climate model, and found that in 11 individual model runs, it did reproduce a surface temperature cooling trend over the past decade twice (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Global average surface temperature (SAT_g) trends during the last two decades for 1991–2000 (left), 2001–2010 (middle) and 2003–2012 (right). Thick ‘X’ marks indicate the observational linear trends, while thin marks represent the trends in historical ensembles from the five CMIP5 models having more than 10 members. Thick (thin) bars denote the 50% (75%) range of the trend values in each ensemble.

It's Not Changes in the Global Energy Imbalance

Watanabe et al. noted that the global energy imbalance from 2001 to 2010 in their climate models was somewhat smaller than in the observational data. Yet the climate models also simulate more surface warming than is observed. In other words, the slowed surface warming isn't a result of a smaller global energy imbalance due to factors like increased cooling from human aerosol emissions. As Watanabe et al. note,

"This implies that errors in the external forcing agents, even if they exist, do not explain the overestimation of the SAT_g trend for 2001–2010."

More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake is a Better Explanation

Similar to the Meehl et al. (2011) 'hiatus period', Watanabe et al. found a strong correlation between global surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific. They then applied a simple statistical correction using this relationship with sea surface temperatures to determine whether internal variability could explain the slowed global surface warming.

The model originally overestimated ocean heat content in the upper 300 meters and underestimated it for 300–1,500 meters for the decade of 2001–2010. When applying this statistical correction, Watanabe et al. found an enhanced overall ocean heat uptake, which suggests that the slowed surface warming can be explained by internal variability transferring more heat to the deep oceans, consistent with previous research.

Climate model simulations expect a long-term decrease in ocean heat uptake efficiency as a consequence of global warming. Watanabe et al. offer a possible explanation for this model expectation:

"Since climate will be far from equilibrium during this period, the weakening in κ [ocean heat uptake efficiency] should not be interpreted as saturation of heat uptake. Rather, it is likely that surface warming gradually stabilizes ocean stratification, thus reducing deep-water production at high latitudes, which acts to weaken advective heat uptake by meridional overturning circulation [cf. Meehl et al., 2011; 2013]."

What's Causing More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake?

So why has ocean heat uptake become more efficient over the past decade instead? We don't yet know the answer to that question. Watanabe et al. suggest it could just be a product of short-term natural variability in the climate system, or it could somehow be related to human influences.

"We cannot yet conclude whether the observed hiatus was part of unpredictable natural phenomena or a deterministic response to predictable changes in external forcing agents."

Slowed Surface Warming May be Short-Lived

However, we expect ocean heat uptake efficiency to decrease in a warming world, so unless we're missing something, surface warming may soon return with a vengeance. Consistent with comments made by Virginie Guemas and Kevin Trenberth, Watanabe et al. conclude,

"Therefore, unless models miss effects of other forcing agents, it is likely that this [less efficient ocean heat uptake] process will occur and act to accelerate surface warming in coming decades."

This research adds another piece to the increasingly clear climate puzzle. The slowed surface warming over the past decade seems to be a result of more heat accumulation in the oceans due to short-term increase in ocean heat uptake efficiency. However, this trend seems unlikely to continue, and we will probably see accelerated surface warming in the coming decades.

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B

Sat, 11 May 2013 07:38:57 EST

Are we doomed to food insecurity?
Big Oil may destroy world's largest rain forest
Chile looks to volcanoes and geysers for energy
Climate milestone is a moment of symbolic significance
Does God hate climate change?
Fresh analysis of the pace of warming and sea-level rise
Greenland’s ice loss may slow, but coasts still At risk
If the Oceans die - we die
New study tells three million-year old story of the Arctic
No need to worry about global warming, folks
The coming GOP civil war over climate change
Thoreau's radicalism and the fight against the fossil-fuel industry
What you need to know about climate sensitivity
What's causing the surface warming slowdown?

Are we doomed to food insecurity?

Half the world's population—5.2 billion people—could be doomed to an insecure and greenhouse gas-causing reliance on food imports by 2050, according to a new study.

Are We Doomed to Food Insecurity? by Andrea Germanos, Common Dreams, May 8, 2013

Big Oil may destroy world's largest rain forest

The Rainforests are the lungs of the earth.—Pablo Neruda

Deus Ex Machina: Something that appears suddenly and unexpectedly and provides a solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty.

Big Oil May Destroy World's Largest Rain Forest and Accelerate Global Warming by Jacqueline Marcus, Buzzflash at Truthout, May 7, 2013

Chile looks to volcanoes and geysers for energy

Chile is one of the countries with the greatest potential for geothermal energy development in Latin America, but a lack of incentives for investment in the sector has kept it from moving past the exploratory phase. A strategic partnership with New Zealand aims to change that situation.

Chile Looks to Volcanoes and Geysers for Energy by Marianela Jarroud, Inter Press Service (IPS), May 8, 2013

Climate milestone is a moment of symbolic significance

The only way forward is back: to retrace our steps and seek to return atmospheric concentrations to around 350ppm

Climate milestone is a moment of symbolic significance on road of idiocy by George Monbiot, May 10, 2013

Does God hate climate change?

Democrat lawmaker is trying to sell environmental legislation as "God's work" -- but is he pandering to religion to push progressive legislation?

Does God Hate Climate Change? by Stpehen Hsieh, AlterNet, May 10, 2013

Fresh analysis of the pace of warming and sea-level rise

Here are two useful articles assessing the latest thinking on the pace at which Greenland ice loss could raise sea levels and the implications of the recent plateau in global temperatures (one acknowledged by climate scientists including Susan Solomon and James Hansen):

Fresh Analysis of the Pace of Warming and Sea-Level Rise by Andrew Revkin, Dot Earth, New York Times, May 9, 2013

Greenland’s ice loss may slow, but coasts still at risk

The flow of Greenland’s glaciers toward the sea may have increased significantly in the past decade, but a new report in Nature finds that rate of increase is unlikely to continue. “The loss of ice has doubled in the past 10 years, but it’s not going to double again,” said lead author Faezeh Nick, a glaciologist at the University Centre in Svalbard, in Longyearbyen, Norway, in an interview.

Greenland’s Ice Loss May Slow, But Coasts Still At Risk by Michael D. Lemonick, Climate Central, May 8, 2013

If the Oceans die - we die

As lawmakers in Washington continue to ignore the most pressing issue facing our planet today - climate change - we are about to pass a very disturbing environmental milestone.

If the Oceans Die - We Die, Op-ed by Thom Hartmann, Truthout, May 7, 2013

New study tells three million-year old story of the Arctic

The Arctic wasn't always as cold and icy as it is now. Three million years ago, carbon dioxide levels were similar to today - but summer temperatures were eight degrees Celsius higher and Greenland was almost ice-free. A new study has scientists speculating whether earth's distant past can provide a window into future climate change.

New study tells three million-year old story of the Arctic by Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, May 9, 2013

No need to worry about global warming, folks

I see a lot of pretty amazingly bad global warming denial online. It ranges from mildly cherry-picked data to such baldly transparent garbage that you have to wonder if the person who wrote it can possibly, actually believe what they are saying is true.

After reading dozens, hundreds, of such mind-numbing articles, I think we’ve found a winner. One that is so sweepingly wrong and based on such a ridiculous premise that it’s weapons-grade denial. Unsurprisingly, it was published in the Wall Street Journal, which has a lengthy history of printing reality-free OpEds about climate change. Perhaps surprisingly, it was penned by two actual scientists, William Happer and Harrison Schmitt. I’ll have more about them later.

No Need to Worry About Global Warming, Folks: More Carbon Dioxide Will Be Awesome, by Phil Pliat,Bad Astromomy, Slate, May 10, 2013

The coming GOP civil war over climate change

Science, storms, and demographics are starting to change minds among the rank and file.

The Coming GOP Civil War Over Climate Change by Coral Davenport, National Journal, May 9, 2013

Thoreau's radicalism and the fight against the fossil-fuel industry

What would it mean if we were to walk in his footsteps?

Thoreau's Radicalism and the Fight Against the Fossil-Fuel Industry by Wen Stephenson, May 7, 2013

What you need to know about climate sensitivity

It's a critical aspect of the climate system, but the basics are simple

What you need to know about climate sensitivity by Dana Nuccetell, The Guardian, May 10, 2013

What's causing the surface warming slowdown?

Despite greenhouse gas emissions continuing to rise fairly steadily, earth's surface - that's the land and top of the oceans - has warmed relatively slowly over the past fifteen years or so.

We asked climate scientists to give us their thoughts about what's causing the recent slower pace of surface warming. Here's what they told us.

What's causing the surface warming slowdown? Scientists tell us what they think by Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, May 8, 2013

2013 SkS News Bulletin #11: Alberta Tar Sands and Keystone XL Pipeline

Mon, 13 May 2013 20:41:26 EST

Al Gore tells Obama to cancel Keystone XL
Alberta oil sands production likely to double by 2022
Can carbon capture clean up Canada’s oil sands?
Canada says it may take EU to WTO over oil sands dispute
Carbon dioxide approaching a new high
Foes suggest a tradeoff if pipeline is approved
House GOP prepares fast-track for Keystone XL
Indigenous resistance grows strong
Keeping the faith in carbon capture and storage
Keystone XL could cost society over $100 billion per year
Norway, Canada, the United States and the Tar Sands
'This Is Our Last Chance'
U.S. decision on Keystone XL pipeline seen dragging past summer

Al Gore tells Obama to cancel Keystone XL

Love him or loath him, you can say one thing Al Gore at the moment. He is certainly winding the Canadians up into a right old rage.

Al Gore Tells Obama to Cancel KXL by Andy Rowell, Oil Change International, May 7, 2013

Alberta oil sands production likely to double by 2022

Alberta’s Energy Resources Conservation Board said on Wednesday it expects output from the province’s oil sands to double to 3.8 million barrels a day by 2022.

Alberta oil sands production likely to double by 2022, Reuters, May 8, 2013

Can carbon capture clean up Canada’s oil sands?

Alberta will serve as a test bed for large-scale carbon capture and sequestration.

Can carbon capture clean up Canada’s oil sands? by Mike Orcutt, MIT Technology Review, May 9, 2013

Canada says it may take EU to WTO over oil sands dispute

Canada threatened on Wednesday to take the European Union to the World Trade Organisation over its plans to label Canadian oil sands as dirty, but promised not to delay a bilateral trade pact.

Canada says it may take EU to WTO over oil sands dispute by Robin Emmott, Reuters, May 8, 2013

Carbon dioxide approaching a new high

For the first time in human history, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will surpass 400 parts per million, according Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which has been measuring carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii since 1958.

With Carbon Dioxide Approaching a New High, Scientists Sound the Alarm by Christopher F. Schuetz, International Herald Tribune, May 6, 2013

Foes suggest a tradeoff if pipeline is approved

President Obama’s first major environmental decision of his second term could be to approve the Keystone XLpipeline, profoundly disappointing environmental advocates who have made the project a symbolic test of the president’s seriousness on climate change.

Foes suggest a tradeoff if pipeline is approved by John M. Broder, New York Times, May 8, 2013

House GOP prepares fast-track for Keystone XL

In memo, House Majority Leader declares: 'We will ensure that the Keystone XL pipeline is built without any further delay'

House GOP Prepares Fast-Track for Keystone XL by Laren McCcauley, Common Dreams, May 6, 2013

Indigenous resistance grows strong

On cloudy days, heavy smoke fills the air of Ponca City, Okla., with grey smog that camouflages itself into the sky. The ConocoPhillips oil refinery that makes its home there uses overcast days as a disguise to release more toxins into the air. These toxins are brimming with benzene — a chemical that, according to the Centers for Disease Control, can cause leukemia, anemia and even decrease the size of women’s ovaries. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, in 2008 the ConocoPhillips refinery released over 2,000 pounds of this chemical into the air in Ponca City.

Indigenous resistance grows strong in Keystone XL battle by Crysbel Tejada and Betsy Catlin, Waging Nonviolence, May 8, 2013

Keeping the faith in carbon capture and storage

Once touted a major answer to oil sands’ carbon emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has seen setbacks in Canada and around the world that have prompted alarms about its potential to make a difference in the battle against climate change.

But in Alberta and Saskatchewan, governments remain committed to CCS projects, which they believe will allow their provinces to continued their reliance on a fossil fuel economy while dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Keeping the faith in carbon capture and storage by Kelly Cryderman, Shawn McCarthy, Globe & Mail, May 6, 2013

Keystone XL could cost society over $100 billion per year

One of the missing pieces of information is an estimate of the damage – translated into dollars – that Keystone XL’s climate pollution would do to health, property, agriculture, ecosystem services, and more.

That estimate, provided here, ranges to over $100 billion per year.

Keystone XL Could Cost Society Over $100 Billion per Year by Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International, May 7, 2013

Norway, Canada, the United States and the Tar Sands

Today 36 Norwegian organizations sent an open letter to Prime Minister Stoltenberg expressing opposition to development of Canadian tar sands by Statoil (the Norwegian state is majority shareholder of Statoil). Signatories include not only environmental organizations, but a broad public spectrum, including, appropriately, many youth organizations. It is encouraging that Norwegian youth press their government to stop supporting tar sands development, given the fact that Norway saves much of its oil earnings for future generations and given the fact that Norway is not likely among the nations that will suffer most from climate change.

Norway, Canada, the United States and the Tar Sands by Dr. James Hansen, The Huffington Post, May 10, 2013

'This Is Our Last Chance'

In a letter sent to President Obama on Friday, 150 high profile Democratic donors urged the president "to proclaim with clarity and purpose that our nation will transition away from carbon-based fossil fuels to job-creating clean energy" and take a stand once and for all against the proposed construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

This Is Our Last Chance': Deep-Pocketed Dems Urge Obama to Reject Keystone XL by Jacob Chamberlin, Common Dreams, May 10, 2013

U.S. decision on Keystone XL pipeline seen dragging past summer

The Obama administration is unlikely to make a decision on the Canada-to-Nebraska Keystone XL pipeline until late this year as it painstakingly weighs the project's impact on the environment and on energy security, a U.S. official and analysts said on Friday.

Exclusive: U.S. decision on Keystone XL pipeline seen dragging past summer by Timothy Gardner, Reuters, May 10, 2013

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19A

Wed, 8 May 2013 16:23:22 EST

Carbon tax backers quietly forge ahead
Cherry-picking one survey to discredit a survey
Climate change denial, economics and conspiracy theories
Climate change scientist discusses life at center of storm
Drive to make energy cleaner has stalled
Hawaii in climate change bullseye
How the oil and gas boom will change America
Inaction on global warming 'not an option': Angela Merkel
Is climate change is a problem for governments and oil firms?
Rich countries drag feet at climate talks
Scrap fuel subsidies and price CO2, urges World Bank
Whither global warming? Has it slowed down?

Carbon tax backers quietly forge ahead

Activists are quietly forging ahead with their campaign for carbon taxes despite long odds on Capitol Hill.

Carbon tax backers quietly forge ahead by Ben Geman, E2Wire/The Hill, May 5, 2013

Cherry-picking one survey to discredit a survey

For the purposes of this fact check, we will look at his claim about the 98 percent statistic, which he says “has been repeatedly discounted” and is based just on a survey of 77 people. What’s he talking about?

Cherry-picking one survey to discredit a survey of scientists on climate change by Glenn Kessler, The Fact Checker, Washington Post, May

Climate change denial, economics and conspiracy theories

Climate change denial, laissez-faire economics, conspiracy theorizing. A new study suggests that these rather diverse belief systems may lie on a continuum. That climate change denialists don’t believe in anthropogenic global warming is a given, but are there other more general indicators of their belief system that include climate change denial as a subset?

Climate change denial, laissez-faire economics and conspiracy theories: A productive pairing? by Ashutosh Jogalekar, Scientific American, May 6, 2013

Climate change scientist discusses life at center of storm

Michael E. Mann holds undergraduate degrees in physics and applied math, a master's degree in physics and a Ph.D in geology and geophysics.

That's fine for figuring out climate change, but he had to learn politics the hard way.

[Video of interview included.]

Climate change scientist discusses life at center of storm by Hugh Lessig, The Daily Press (Hampton Raods, VA), May 8, 2013

Drive to make energy cleaner has stalled

Average unit of energy is 'basically as dirty' as two decades ago, says new IEA report, despite boom in renewables. Among its recommendations: Encourage move from coal to gas by developing unconventional gas.

Drive to make energy cleaner has stalled. Shale gas could help. by Nick Grealy, The Christian Science Monitor, May 5, 2013

Hawaii in climate change bullseye

Tropical cyclones of the future may have the Hawaiian islands in their cross hairs, according to a new study of how climate change will alter eastern Pacific Ocean storms near the end of the 21st century.

Hawaii in Climate Change Bullseye by Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News, May 5, 2013

How the oil and gas boom will change America

Let’s get this out of the way first: Michael Levi’s new book, “The Power Surge,” is very likely to be one of the best things you’ll read about the ongoing oil and gas boom in the United States.

How the oil and gas boom will change America: An interview with Michael Levi by Brad Plumer, Washington Post, May 5, 2013

Inaction on global warming 'not an option': Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Monday that in the quest for binding international emissions targets to fight global warming, doing nothing is "not an option"

Inaction on global warming 'not an option': Angela Merkel, AFP/The Economic Times, May 6, 2013

Is climate change is a problem for government and oil firms?

Either governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms are overvalued.

Governments And Oil Firms Aren't Acting Like Climate Change Is A Problem, The Economist, May 5, 2013

Rich countries drag feet at climate talks

Another week of international climate negotiations ended in Bonn, Germany last Friday, but there was little mid-level bureaucrats could do when world leaders remain in thrall to the fossil fuel industry, say environmentalists.

Rich Countries Drag Feet at Climate Talks by Stpehen Leahy, International Press Service (IPS), May 7, 2013

Scrap fuel subsidies and price CO2, urges World Bank

The world’s nations must scrap fossil fuel subsidies and put a price on emitting carbon dioxide if the planet is to avoid dangerous climate change, according to the president of the World Bank.

Scrap fuel subsidies and price CO2, urges World Bank, Reuters, May 6, 2013

Whither global warming? Has it slowed down?

The so-called warming ‘hiatus’ over the past decade and a half is no reason for complacency on future warming. Mathematics teaches us that 15 years is simply too short a period from which to draw statistically valid conclusions.

Whither Global Warming? Has It Slowed Down? by David Appell, Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media, May 7, 2013

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #18

Sun, 5 May 2013 21:08:48 EST

SkS Highlights

John Cook's Participate in a survey measuring consensus in climate research provides an opportunity for SkS readers to to rate the abstracts of the climate papers with the purpose of estimating the level of consensus regarding the proposition that humans are causing global warming. Dana's Roy Spencer's Catholic Online Climate Myths garnered the most comments of the articles posted during the past week.

Toon of the Week

H/T to Joe Romm's Climate Progress blog.

Quote of the Week

Corporate America, meanwhile, is also moving forward on climate adaptation. They just call it something else. “A lot of companies don’t use the term for fear of alienating conservative employees and investors,” says Joyce Coffee, who advises Fortune 500 companies on environmental issues for Edelman, the world’s largest public relations firm. “They label these investments under standard terms like ‘risk avoidance’ or ‘continuity panning,’ but everyone knows it’s all climate related. Major companies used to fear climate change because they thought it meant new regulations. Now they see it is a direct fiscal threat. Any company with a supply chain is thinking about how to avoid climate disruption.”

Getting rich off global warming by Alexander Zaitchik, Salon, May 5, 2013

The Week in Review

Climate change will raise the sea level in the Gulf of Finland by John Hartz
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18A by John Hartz
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B by John Hartz
Greenland: A Ring of Mountains by Greenman
WMO Annual Climate Statement Confirms 2012 as Among Top Ten Warmest Years by John Hartz
Participate in a survey measuring consensus in climate research by John Cook
Roy Spencer's Catholic Online Climate Myths by Dana
Leave It in the Ground, Climate Activists Demand by John Hartz
Forks in the Road: Last Exit to Two Degrees by Sarah
New Research Shows Humans Causing More Strong Hurricanes by Dana
2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #17B by John Hartz

Rebuttal Articles Updated

Dana's New Research Shows Humans Causing More Strong Hurricanes was incoporated into the rebuttal to the myth, 'Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming'

Coming Soon

Distinguishing Between Short-Term Variability and Long-Term Trends (Dana)
Who is Paying for Global Warming? (Agnostic)
2013 SkS News Bulletin #10 (John Hartz)
Visualizing Arctic Ice Loss (Andy Lee Robinson)
Climate for the Trees (jg)
2013 SkS News Roundup #19A (John Hartz)
The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2. (KK Tung)
2013 SkS News Roundup #19B (John Hartz)

In the Works

How did Ancient Coral Survive in a High CO2 World? (Rob Painting)
16 Years Video Update (Kevin C)
Tropical forests still carbon sink by the end of this century? (Alexander Ac)
The Polar Jetstream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to Arctic warming (John Mason)
Weathering of rocks: guide to a long-term carbon-sink (John Mason)
A tale told in maps and charts: Texas in the National Climate Assessment (Dana)

SkS in the News

ECOS re-posted John Cook's The Conversation article, More evidence for human fingerprint on climate change.

Climate Progress re-posted Dana's New Research Shows Humans Causing More Strong Hurricanes.

John Bruno at Sea Monster referenced several SkS rebuttals in discussing global warming since 1999.

The Rockford Register Star re-posted AndyS' Global Warming: Not Reversible, But Stoppable.

The Daily Blog and The Standard referenced Dana's Real Skepticism About the New Marcott 'Hockey Stick'.

The Guardian Expressed referenced Skeptical Science several times in debunking the 'climate change is a hoax' myth.

HotWhopper referenced Dana's Roy Spencer's Catholic Online Climate Myths.

Scholars and Rogues and Neven's Artic Sea Ice Blog posted about John Cook's Participate in a survey measuring consensus in climate research.

Climate Progress used John Garrett's cartoon from Sarah's Forks in the Road: Last Exit to Two Degrees.

SkS Spotlights

Climate Nexus is a strategic communications group dedicated to highlighting the wide-ranging impacts of climate change and clean energy solutions in the United States.

Since its founding in 2011, Climate Nexus has drawn upon established and emerging science to personalize and localize the climate and energy story through work with the media, relevant NGOs and other thought leaders. With backgrounds spanning the fields of environmental science, traditional and digital media, public affairs, corporate sustainability, consulting, environmental policy, and documentary filmmaking, we bring a diverse set of skills to the greater science, technology, public health and environmental communities. And that’s a good thing, because we’re here to help.

WMO Annual Climate Statement Confirms 2012 as Among Top Ten Warmest Years

Fri, 3 May 2013 06:04:01 EST

This article is a reprint of a press release posted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on May 2, 2013.

The World Meteorological Organization’s Statement on the Status of the Global Climate says that 2012 joined the ten previous years as one of the warmest — at ninth place — on record despite the cooling influence of a La Niña episode early in the year.

The 2012 global land and ocean surface temperature during January–December 2012 is estimated to be 0.45°C (±0.11°C) above the 1961–1990 average of 14.0°C. This is the ninth warmest year since records began in 1850 and the 27th consecutive year that the global land and ocean temperatures were above the 1961–1990 average, according to the statement. The years 2001–2012 were all among the top 13 warmest years on record.

“Although the rate of warming varies from year to year due to natural variability caused by the El Niño cycle, volcanic eruptions and other phenomena, the sustained warming of the lower atmosphere is a worrisome sign,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “The continued upward trend in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and the consequent increased radiative forcing of the Earth’s atmosphere confirm that the warming will continue,” he said.

“The record loss of Arctic sea ice in August-September — 18% less than the previous record low of 2007 of 4.17 million km2 — was also a disturbing sign of climate change,” said Mr Jarraud. “The year 2012 saw many other extremes as well, such as droughts and tropical cyclones. Natural climate variability has always resulted in such extremes, but the physical characteristics of extreme weather and climate events are being increasingly shaped by climate change,” he said.

“For example, because global sea levels are now about 20 cm higher than they were in 1880, storms such as Hurricane Sandy are bringing more coastal flooding than they would have otherwise,” said Mr Jarraud.

WMO’s annual statements gather the key climate events of each year. The series stands today as an internationally recognized authoritative source of information about temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, tropical cyclones, and sea ice extent. The newly released statement provided in-depth analysis of regional trends as part of a WMO drive to provide more information at regional and national levels to support adaptation to climate variability and change.

The 2012 climate assessment, the most detailed to date, will inform discussion at WMO’s Executive Council meeting (15-23 May 2013).

Above-average temperatures were observed during 2012 across most of the globe’s land surface areas, most notably North America, southern Europe, western Russia, parts of northern Africa and southern South America. Nonetheless, cooler-than-average conditions were observed across Alaska, parts of northern and eastern Australia, and central Asia.

Precipitation across the globe was slightly above the 1961-1990 long-term average. There were drier-than-average conditions across much of the central United States, northern Mexico, northeastern Brazil, central Russia, and south-central Australia. Wetter-than-average conditions were present across northern Europe, western Africa, north-central Argentina, western Alaska, and most of northern China.

Snow cover extent in North America during the 2011/2012 winter was below average, resulting in the fourth smallest winter snow cover extent on record, according to data from the Global Snow Laboratory. This was in marked contrast to the previous two winters (2009/2010 and 2010/2011), which had the largest and third largest snow cover extent, respectively, since records began in 1966.

Meanwhile, the Eurasian continent snow cover extent during the winter was above average, resulting in the fourth largest snow cover extent on record. Overall, the northern hemisphere snow cover extent was above average – 590000 km2 above the average of 45.2 million km2 – and was the fourteenth largest snow cover extent on record.

Greenland ice sheet: In early July, Greenland’s surface ice cover melted dramatically, with an estimated 97 per cent of the ice sheet surface having thawed in mid-July. This was the largest melt extent since satellite records began 34 years ago. During the summer it is typical to observe nearly half of the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet melt naturally, particularly across the lower elevations. However, in 2012 a high-pressure system brought warmer-than-average conditions to Greenland, which are associated with the rapid melting.

Arctic sea ice extent reached its record lowest level in its annual cycle on 16 September at 3.41 million km2. This value broke the previous record low set on 18 September 2007 by 18 per cent. It was 49 per cent or nearly 3.3 million km2 below the 1979–2000 average minimum. The difference between the maximum Arctic sea-ice extent on 20 March and the lowest minimum extent on 16 September was 11.83 million km2 – the largest seasonal sea-ice extent loss in the 34-year satellite record.

Antarctic sea-ice extent in March was the fourth largest on record at 5.0 million km2 or 16.0 per cent above the 1979–2000 average. During its growth season, the Antarctic sea-ice extent reached its maximum extent since records began in 1979 on 26 September, at 19.4 million km2. This value surpassed the previous maximum sea-ice extent record of 19.36 million km2 set on 21 September 2006.

Extreme Events: Hurricane Sandy killed close to 100 people and caused major destruction in the Caribbean and tens of billions of US dollars in damage and around 130 deaths in the eastern United States of America. Typhoon Bopha, the deadliest tropical cyclone of the year, hit the Philippines – twice – in December. During the year, the United States and south-eastern Europe experienced extreme drought conditions, while West Africa was severely hit by extreme flooding. The populations of Europe, northern Africa and Asia were acutely affected by extreme cold and snow conditions. Severe flooding occurred in Pakistan or a third consecutive year.

Climate change is aggravating naturally occurring climate variability and has become a source of uncertainty for climate-sensitive economic sectors like agriculture and energy.

“It is vital that we continue to invest in the observations and research that will improve our knowledge about climate variability and climate change,” said Mr Jarraud.

“We need to understand how much of the extra heat captured by greenhouse gases is being stored in the oceans and the consequences this brings in terms of ocean acidification and other impacts. We need to know more about the temporary cooling effects of pollution and other aerosols emitted into the atmosphere. We also need a better understanding of the changing behaviour of extreme weather and climate events as a consequence of global warming, as well as the need to assist countries in the most affected areas to better manage climate-related risks with improved climate early warning and climate watch systems,” said Mr Jarraud.

The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), adopted by the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress in 2012, provides the necessary global platform to inform decision-making for climate adaptation through enhanced climate information.

Climate change will raise the sea level in the Gulf of Finland

Sun, 5 May 2013 04:28:16 EST

The following article is a reprint of a news release posted by the Finnish Meteorological Institute on Apr 29, 2013

The Finnish Meteorological Institute has updated its estimates concerning the impact of rising sea levels on the Finnish coast.

Photo: Eija Vallinheimo

Post-glacial rebound and changes in the Earth’s gravity field protect the Finnish coast against rising sea levels, especially in the Gulf of Bothnia. In the Gulf of Finland, the sea level is starting to rise.

The rise in ocean levels varies regionally

Global warming raises ocean levels at an accelerating pace, currently on average about three millimetres per year. The reasons for this are the thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of glaciers. It is estimated that by the end of this century, ocean levels will rise at least about 20 centimetres. The highest estimates are nearly two metres.

There is, however, great regional variation in the rise, for reasons such as the uneven warming of seas, changes in the Earth’s gravity field, and changes in the circulation of seas. The Finnish Meteorological Institute has used the latest scientific publications to estimate the impact of these regional factors on the Finnish coast.

As glaciers melt, mass will shift from continents into seas. In consequence, the Earth’s gravity field and the height of the Earth’s crust will be altered. The mass of continental glaciers will no longer attract sea water as strongly as before. In addition, the Earth’s crust will rise under the lighter glacier. For this reason, the rise in the sea level will be minor near the melting glacier, whereas the rise will be felt more acutely further away from the glacier.In consequence, the melting of the continental glacier in Greenland will have a fairly small impact on the Finnish coast. The regional rise in Finland will remain below the global average.

The characteristics of the Baltic Sea affect the Finnish coast

In addition to the regional rise in ocean levels, local events in the Baltic Sea affect the sea level changes on the Finnish coast. In Finland, the uplift of the land after the last glacial period is still 4–10 millimetres per year. Moreover, climate models predict stronger western winds, which will push water into the Baltic Sea through the Danish straits and water will accumulate against the Finnish coast.

So far, post-glacial rebound has offset the rise in sea level in Finland, but the situation is gradually changing on the southern coast. It is estimated that the sea level will start to rise in the Gulf of Finland. In the Gulf of Bothnia, the uplift is still likely to even out the sea level rise in the coming decades.

If the highest projections come to pass, the sea level will rise everywhere on the Finnish coast: by as much as 90 centimetres in the Gulf of Finland by the end of the century, by 65 cm in the Bothnian Sea and by about 30 cm in the Bay of Bothnia.

The current estimate concerns the change in the average sea level in the long term. In addition, the impact of waves and other changes in the short-term variation of the sea level must be taken into account in building and other activities on the coast. In the near future, the Finnish Meteorological Institute will update its estimates of the lowest recommended building heights, where these factors will also be considered.

Skeptical Science

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #20

SkS Highlights

Toon of the Week

Quote of the Week

The Week in Review

Rebuttal Articles Updates

Coming Soon

In the Works

SkS in the News

SkS Spotlights

Measure the climate consensus yourself with our Interactive Rating System

Level of Endorsement

Categories

2013 SkS News Bulletin #12: The Consensus Project

Climate Denial's Death Knell

Climate research nearly unanimous

Consensus study

Is the science settled?

It's official! Humans caused global warming.

Global warming consensus: We can haz it!

Largest study of peer-reviewed literature to date

'Overwhelming' consensus for manmade warming

Scientists Agree (Again)

Scientists agree global warming is man-made

Scientific 'consensus' that humans to blame

Scientists say united on global warming

Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20B

Burning tar sands = 'unsolvable' climate crisis: Hansen

Climate change has shifted the North and South Poles

Climate change is happening… So what?

Fiji's villagers move uphill to escape rising seas

Global warming has not stalled

Go fish (somewhere else): Warming oceans are altering catches

Ignoring the cost of climate change is bad business

Mount Everest's ice is melting

Profits vs. disaster in Arctic meltdown

Warmer springs linked to dwindling snow in Rocky Mountains

Why we know about the greenhouse gas effect

Zombie climate sceptic theories survive

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #19

SkS Highlights

Toon of the Week

Quote of the Week

The Week in Review

Coming Soon

In the Works

SkS in the News

SkS Spotlights

The last time carbon dioxide concentrations were around 400ppm: a snapshot from Arctic Siberia

Synopsis

Introduction

The research: Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #20A

A change in temperature

Arctic waters growing alarmingly acidic

'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise

Canada sells out science

Climate change 'will make hundreds of millions homeless'

Fewer Rain Forests Mean Less Energy

Obama administration outlines new policy for the Arctic

Ralph Keeling ponders a sobering milestone

Sea levels are rising - but how quickly?

Swift political action can avert a carbon dioxide crisis

UK government faces an exodus of energy experts

Warmer climate threatens Africa’s vital cassava crop

What you need to know about climate sensitivity

What you need to know about climate sensitivity

What is climate sensitivity?

What are the biggest feedbacks?

Another Piece of the Global Warming Puzzle - More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake

Model Simulations

It's Not Changes in the Global Energy Imbalance

More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake is a Better Explanation

What's Causing More Efficient Ocean Heat Uptake?

Slowed Surface Warming May be Short-Lived

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B

Are we doomed to food insecurity?

Big Oil may destroy world's largest rain forest