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Debunking this skeptic myth is left as an exercise to the reader

Posted on 17 December 2010 by John Cook

I recently received an email proposing an alternative cause for global warming:

"The real reason for global warming is the earth's orbit around the sun is slowly decaying, and the earth is being pulled closer to the sun."

It's fairly straightforward to determine whether this is actually occuring using direct measurements. Without wanting to give away too many details (for reasons that will soon become apparent), I cited some empirical observations that falsified the "decaying orbit" hypothesis. His response:

"This is where we must agree to disagree. I measure the progression of earth's decaying orbit by the surface temperature, and by the increase of the surface area the sun is warming. Houston is near the equator. Our winters are becoming sunny, and warmer."

I queried why he relies on these indirect methods and ignored the direct measurements I cited. The response:

"I ignore direct readings, because I feel it flawed."

I was never able to extract from him why he felt the direct measurements were flawed, other than a general "I'd rather depend on my own senses" sentiment. But I've intentionally left out the details of my response as I thought I'd leave it as an exercise to the reader as to how you would respond to the argument that global warming is being caused by a decaying orbit. I'd be interested to see what different approaches others take.

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Comments 51 to 54 out of 54:

  1. @muoncounter #51 I wasn't thinking in fine psychology but something in the style of The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism. For me, paragraphs like
    It's a testament to the robustness of the AGW theory that skeptics can't seem to decide what their objection to it is. If there were a flaw in the theory, then every skeptic would pounce on it and make a consistent argument, rather than the current philosophy which seems to be "throw everything at the wall and see what sticks."

    are worth a gold ingot because almost everyone can understand them. With these kind of messages, people who can't follow the arguments suddenly understands what's going on 'behind the scenes'. No wonder some 'big shot' who drives real funding to GW denialism felt the need to comment on that post.

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  2. Humanity Rules #11 When you accuse people of circular reasoning, it's kind of an obligation to present actual evidence of their circular reasoning. That way, we can see that you're not simply being frivolous. wingding #47 the simplest counterargument (one that everyone can understand the logic to) Well, maybe not everyone. Apparently, some people just know when a scientific argument is "flawed," just as some people can reportedly sense Magnetic North. Personally, I like the idea of a luminiferous aether. It's a shame that modern physics is conspiring to suppress an idea that really deserves to be true. muoncounter #48 #40: Yooper, you and I apparently misspent our youth in much the same way. Although The Hollow Earth (fact or fiction?) would explain why the Arctic ice is melting -- heat from the internal sun! Close, but no cigar. The warming actually comes from the underground UFO bases at New Swabia.
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  3. So your correspondent believes "the real reason for global warming (ie. increased surface temperatures) is that the earth's orbit around the sun is slowly decaying". And the reason he knows the earth's orbit is decaying is [increased] "surface temperature". That's circular reasoning in keeping with typical skeptic logic. False logic is a barrier to establishing the facts, but is no barrier at all to a skeptic confirming what he wants to believe. To the extent that political will in the US is subject to ignorance of ordinary Americans, I fear we the planet is doomed!
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  4. It sounds like the facts are not good enough for this denier, and I have found that to be the case with most deniers I have talked with. I have had better luck appealing to popular figures in the government that work to mitigate climate change, such as the US Navy, Pentagon and John McCain. If the climate change issue is removed from its political "liberal" stereotype and framed as an issue that crosses political boundaries, there is a better chance of getting the point through any mental walls that some people put up. Also, I would reply back to the "I don't trust the direct measurements" with an explanation of how the measuring devices work. These instruments are somewhat abstract to the average person, and a clear explanation of how they work could go a long way to establishing trust in their results. Also, while it may be tempting to poke fun or get frustrated, we must realize that today's deniers may be tomorrow's activists. Back in college, I was in the denier camp, but now I have devoted my career towards engineering renewable solutions. We must remain civil at all times in order not to alienate anybody. Thanks so much for this website. I have been reading for a month or so, and there is a wealth of concise, distilled information here along with some pretty interesting and civil comment discussions. I've donated since this is great work that benefits the world.
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