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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 901 to 950:

  1. There is no consensus

    Note there is more the Naomi Oreskes paper here. It is not clear to me from the context whether the Oreske article was peer-reviewed. Editorial-type and some review pieces in Science journals are not always peer-reviewed, though papers are in Science. However, the Oreske paper was in section called "essays on science and society". Since it was presenting an actual analysis rather than comment, I would guess "yes", but it isnt that clear.

    The Oreske conclusion is not substantively different from other peer-reviewed studies of consensus however. It is extremely difficult to challenge the conclusion that a very strong scientific consensus on AGW exists from the evidence.

  2. There is no consensus

    Karlengle: Perhaps I misunderstood your question. I thought you asked to see the peer reviews of the publications. Are you instead asking how to tell whether a given publication was peer reviewed?

  3. There is no consensus

    Karlengle: "Peer review" of submissions for scientific publication usually is done double blinded--the reviewers don't know who the authors are, and vice versa. Authors are given the reviews regardless of the final decision of acceptance or rejection by the journal or conference. For many decades, those reviews remained private, as a way to support frankness. But some publications are changing the model to open reviews.

    (In fact, at this very moment, I am in hour 10 of 12 hours of a conference subcommittee meeting--fortunately three sessions of four hours. All 37 subcommittee members are watching discussions of each submitted paper by two of those members, summarizing each paper's review by them plus by two to four reviewers who are not on the subcommittee. Substantial effort went into carefully recruiting those two to four external reviewers, curating discussions among those reviewers to clarify disagreements in their reviews, and crafting demanded or suggested revisions to the authors.)

  4. There is no consensus

    Hi, I have a question about peer reviews.  Are there lists somewhere that show who has peer-reviewed studies/papers being mentioned?  For example, I have been searching for peer reviews of Naomi Oreske's consenus study, but I'm not having any luck?  Any places you can point me to?  When offer these studies at online discussions, I invariably get linked to critiques given by bloggers.  Of course, these bloggers, being climate deniers offer all sorts of claims of dishonesty and bad studies, but it seems like if these studies where peer reviewed, those reviews would hold much more water than a denier blogger with no real expertise in climate science...

  5. CO2 is plant food

    johnd@44

    Hi johnd,

    CO2 is not the basic buidling block for a carbon based life.

    CHNOPS, which stands for carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, sulfur, represents the six most important chemical elements whose covalent combinations make up most biological molecules on Earth.

    Carbons ability to hybridize orbitals is the key factors here, not the CO2 molecule.

    It's also Carbon's capability of forming a vast number of compounds, more than any other element, with almost ten million compounds described to date. Carbon's widespread abundance, its ability to form stable bonds with numerous other elements, and its unusual ability to form polymers at the temperatures commonly encountered on Earth enables it to serve as a common element of all known living organisms. Carbon is important because of its ability to form long chain-like molecules (carbon chains form the backbone of organic molecules.

    Finally, consider the abundance of carbon in the universe ( 4,600 ppm in the universe) versus the next group 14 element silicon (650 ppm in the universe) and you see that carbon has a  unique abilty  to hybridize its S and P electron shells, thus making 4 electrons of equal energy level, this proptery of carbon really was the only way to achieve a carbon based life here on earth. Why? Because carbon can form stable bonds with itself, but also with a variety of other types of elements. This is why life is "carbon-based" or predominantly carbon.




  6. CO2 is plant food

    Eclectic @42, @43

    I truly enjoy your responses.  I've learned so much from posting the links and comments from the occasional denialist I run across.

    I told the Canadian to go ask the Midwest farmers if the extra CO2 in the atmosphere helped their flooded fields in 2019 and the econimic impact it cost.   I suggested that while he's at it, please ask the CA farmers if the extra CO2 in the atmosphere helped their drought stricken crops last year and to explain how climate change impacted these events.

  7. CO2 was higher in the past

    Robert Murphy#46 
    "And that is true, except it says nothing at all about CO2 levels." From: 'The Undesigned Universe' - Peter Ward
    “ . . . it>
    62:26 is these ocean state changes that are
    62:28 correlated with the great disasters of
    62:30 the past impact can cause extinction but
    62:35 it did so in our past only once that we
    62:38 can tell whereas this has happened over
    62:40 and over and over again we have
    62:42 fifteen evidences times of mass
    62:45 extinction in the past 500 million years
    62:48 so the implications for the implications
    62:51 the implications of the carbon dioxide
    62:52 is really dangerous if you heat your
    62:55 planet sufficiently to cause your Arctic
    62:58 to melt if you cause the temperature
    63:01 gradient between your tropics and your
    63:03 Arctic to be reduced you risk going back
    63:07 to a state that produces these hydrogen
    63:11 sulfide pulses “ www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ako03Bjxv70

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] You have been warned before about posting comments that consist of little more than quoted material. You are skating on thin ice, approaching violation of the comments policy.

    The comment you claim to be responding to (#46) was posted in 2011. Do you really expect to be engaging in discussion with that participant?

     

  8. CO2 is plant food

    Perhaps rather than considering that CO2 as being plant food it is more exact to describe it as the basic building block of a carbon based life form, given all life as we know it is just that.

    Typically, 99% of the human body consists of six elements, oxygen 65%, carbon 18.5%, hydrogen 9.5%, nitrogen 3.2%, calcium 1.5%, and phosphorus 1.0%. which explains why when the human body combusts, so too with most other materials, all that is left is carbon.

  9. CO2 is plant food

    TVC15 @#40 ,

    the Canadian denialist has linked to an "amusing" website article showing :- 

    (A) "Plants have been starved for CO2 at the low levels existing before the industrial revolution".    (Which would be why the South American Amerindians have dwelt in semi-arid wastelands for thousands of years rather than discovering the lush vibrant Amazonian Jungle ? )

    and (B) "Mankind has been living on the edge of extinction with low levels of atmospheric CO2"  . . . since all (terrestrial?) plants die if atmospheric CO2 falls below 150ppm.

    I gather that under experimental conditions, plants can survive with less than 150ppm CO2  ~  but this is confounded by many other associated factors that would apply in a real world situation (including very extensive glaciation).

    See my comments in #34 above.

    But the very low CO2 scenario is moot because of recent anthropogenic CO2 emission.   Without current human emissions, the planet would have continued for millions of years before reaching below the 150ppm mark.  During that time, "assisted" or natural evolution would likely produce plants adapted to low CO2.  Assuming that the humans of the future would decide not to burn a few gigatons of coal occasionally . . . or chose not to use heat to decompose calcium carbonate rock.

    Humans "on the edge of extinction"  is alarmist hogwash.

  10. CO2 is plant food

    TVC15  @#40 ,

    undeniably, CO2 is a plant food, and the increased planetary greening is of benefit to insects and goats.  Whether the general increased greening is to be beneficial to humans, is an arguable point (see the Lead Article, above).

    Also note that some of the greening in India has come from increased irrigation, and some of the greening in China has come from extensive governmental tree-planting programs.

    And the greening of past decades may be plateauing out ( I do not have a convenient citation for that).

    What is amusing, is how so many prominent denialists will vehemently [and correctly] assert that nearly all life on Earth is supported by the tiny amount of CO2 in the atmosphere . . . yet, minutes later, they will assert that the atmospheric level of CO2 is simply too tiny to affect Earth's climate.

  11. An exponential increase in CO2 will result in a linear increase in temperature

    Crashed: That sentence is an attempted summarization. Would it be clearer if it were expanded to "...rather than examining only noisy short-term temperature data, we should remove the effects of those other factors on temperature so we can estimate the effect of CO2 alone, then examine how much atmospheric CO2 is increasing."

  12. An exponential increase in CO2 will result in a linear increase in temperature

    Crashed @14 ,

    Quite right.  And it goes in the opposite direction, too  ~  some "skeptics" say well-established physics theory (e.g. gravity causing downward acceleration, or CO2 radiational properties causing planetary warming) must be false because whatever-it-is  has not yet happened.  Or more precisely: has not yet happened "enough"  to impress them to a drastic extent.

    Rather like the tale of the Optimist who fell off the top of the Empire State Building  ~  "25 floors and okay so far . . . 28 floors and okay so far . . . 32 floors and okay so far . . . "

    Until the final predictable Splat  onto the pavement, the Optimist refuses to make a realistic assessment of the overall situation.

    You see that sort of thing very often with "skeptics"  ~  the globe isn't warming (enough) . . . the ice isn't melting (enough) . . . the sea-level rise can't accelerate ( because  it didn't do so during the previous century).   And they turn the logic inside out, to claim this proves AGW & climate science must be fake.

    Crashed ~ if you could analyse & explain that sort of stupid thinking, I would be very grateful !

  13. An exponential increase in CO2 will result in a linear increase in temperature

    Some skeptics have claimed that these projected amounts of warming have not been borne out in the surface temperature changes over the past decade. But there are many factors which impact short-term global temperatures, which may conceal the long-term warming caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. So if we want to know if the IPCC projections are realistic, rather than examining noisy short-term temperature data, we should examine how much atmospheric CO2 is increasing.

     

    That is not really helpful. When you break it down what it says is... some skeptics might say that what's happening on the ground doesn't reflect the theory, so for that, we use the theory to proove that what didn't happen will happen in the future.

    You cant use what we expect to see in the future as a rebuttal against what we haven't seen in the past, that seems like abit of a fallacy.

  14. CO2 is plant food

    Ops I meant Canadian denier. 

  15. CO2 is plant food

    The climate deniers are getting out of hand here in the US.

    I have a Canidain denier trying to covince me that CO2 is plant food and good for the earth.  He proceeds to back his beleif by posting this on LinkedIn.  

    …CO2 is Greening Planet Earth…

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  16. Daniel Bailey at 09:27 AM on 6 April 2021
    CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    Sigh.  If only people would stop checking their cerebral cortex at the border to Denierstan: people live in the troposphere, not the thermosphere.

    I know they both start with "t", but that's all they have in common.

    From NASA scientist Martin Mlynczak:

    "There is no relationship between the natural cycle of cooling and warming in the thermosphere and the weather/climate at Earth’s surface. NASA and other climate researchers continue to see a warming trend in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface."

    https://climatefeedback.org/false-claims-coming-ice-age-ecosystem-unreliable-news-sites-blogs-social-media-accounts/

    "Observations have shown that solar flare activity on the surface of the Sun is in the quiet phase of its continuing 11-year cycle. This causes cooling of the thermosphere—a layer of the atmosphere that starts 65 miles above the surface—and will not cause noticeable cooling at the surface"

    https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/metros-claims-of-coming-mini-ice-age-have-no-basis-in-reality/

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

     

    Please surprise us by demonstrating some actual skepticism.

  17. Rob Honeycutt at 07:38 AM on 6 April 2021
    CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    Well, Likeitwarm... I'd say that's one seriously ludicrous piece of writing you've linked to there. 

    It's a long Gish-gallop of anti-science, so was there any specific point contained in it that you'd like to see addressed? If you don't narrow it down a little it would require a very long response to debunk the loads of crap written on that page.

  18. CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    Hi.  Neophyte here again and I do consider myself that, but I keep trying to learn.

    I think this'll be on topic, but possible it should be under "it's the sun". Sorry if I made a mistake.

    I ran into this article: https://coldclimatechange.com/carbon-dioxide-is-a-cooling-gas-according-to-nasa/

    Let me know what you think of it.  I'll keep reading.

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Link activated.

    The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box.

    ...and pay attention to Rob Honeycutt's comment, along with the portion of the Comments Policy that states:

    No link or picture only. Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic.

     

  19. Philippe Chantreau at 08:23 AM on 5 April 2021
    Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    MA Rodger,

    It may be too late for that. Down the comment thread at NTZ she seems to argue against space being a heat sink.

    Other commenters refer to G&T as if it held any value.

    It seems NTZ is every bit as much a waste of time as WUWT.

  20. Clock is running on our reliance on vegetation as a steady 'carbon sink'

    The new netflicks movie Seaspiracy makes the point that killing off the bigger fish eventually reduces the ability of the Ocean to sequester CO2.

  21. Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    Rob Honeyutt @434,

    Even though Zoe Phin's credentials are not that of a climatologist, I would suggest her work providing the basis for the 'article' presented @431 (her work is set out here) is so poor, she should approach her college and ask for her money back. Evidently her education has entirely failed.

    What Zoe Phin manages to show is no more than "Look!! Lots of numbers with decimal points. So I'm right and AGW is fake!!!" Or in her own  baseless words "The greenhouse effect hypothesis is simply incorrect and should be abandoned for the sake of empirical science."

    The first table of numbers presented by Zoe Phin are presumably taken from CERES and shows that high, uppermid & lowermid clouds have increased through the period 2003-19 while low cloud shows no statistical trend. However I don't see any use of this data within the analysis provided.

    The second and third tables (again presumably from CERES but quite where from CERES is a different matter as this is modelled data not measured data) shows annual global average values for surface upward & downward IR and TAO upward for clear-sky/all-sky and with/without areosols. These numbers are not the sort of thing that can be measured globally and further are a ridiculously good fit with GISS annual global average SAT which shows to anybody with half a brain who thought to examine them that the values are modelled numbers not measured numbers.

    The extent of the analysis provided by Zoe Phin is simply to compare the 2003-19 averages of these annual global average IR numbers and declare the upward surface IR do not vary enough between clear-sky/all-sky for clouds to play any role in any greenhouse effect. Thus Zoe declares AGW must be fake.

    The averaged clear-sky/all-sky TOA upward IR numbers vary by 25Wm^-2, enough to provide 20% of a theoretical +33ºC greenhouse effect, not a million miles from what would be anticipated. But the analysis dismisses the relevance of TOA IR. We are told "Less top-of-atmosphere outgoing radiation doesn’t cause surface heating."  So what does less energy leaving the planet do? Where does the energy that is now failing to exit planet Earth go? These are the questions Zoe Phin needs to answer before she continues to make a total fool of herself.

  22. Rob Honeycutt at 06:29 AM on 3 April 2021
    Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    I would note that Zoe Phin's credentials are "B.S. Economics, M.S. Quantitative Finance, 10-year Wall Street veteran"

    These are most certainly excellent degrees and experience to have, but they are far from what you would want to rely on for topics like, changes in planetary energy balance and the earth's greenhouse effect.

    When you need an expert in economics and finance, you certainly don't go looking for a phycisist or a climate scientist. I'm not sure why people think the reverse is rational.

  23. Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    Rkcannon, permit me to add a comment, as a non-expert in these matters.   Measuring the alterations in outgoing IR radiation from Earth, is a matter of measuring a very small quantity against the background of a very large quantity.   Rather like measuring your bodyweight on ordinary bathroom scales ~  with and without wearing your wristwatch.   It is hard to get an accurate assessment of the weight of your wristwatch, even though you repeat the measurements daily over many years!

    (Nevertheless, basic physics and common sense do combine to tell you that the wristwatch has a real positive weight, not a negative or zero weight.)

    Taking a step back and looking at the climate situation :-  over many decades, the observed surface temperature is rising, and the observed Ocean Heat Content is rising, and the observed planetary ice-sheets are melting, and the observed sea-evel is rising.   And these changes are in accord with our understanding of radiational basic physics, too.

    So only a fool (or scoundrel) would assert that Global Warming is not occurring.   (Despite the difficulties inherent in a situation of continual variations and distributions of planet-wide cloud types.)

    Speaking of which :- the NoTricksZone  website has an appalling track record of presenting distorted and/or misleading information.   It is clear that "NTZ"  has a strong agenda of presenting disinformation via misquotes and misinterpeting of scientific papers.   Yes, I am making an ad hominem comment ~  and it is a very well deserved ad hom in the case of NTZ  and its chief editor.   Whenever you see something "scientific" reported on NTZ  website, your own proper skepticism should immediately go to Triple Red Alert overdrive status.

    There are several versions of reporting circulating about an initial study (Kramer et al., 2021).    NTZ's  effort mentions a Zoe Phin, who is IIRC one of these "GreenHouse Effect does not exist" people ~  so again, your skepticism should result in a close examination of what's being put forward.  (Unless you wish to dismiss it all as a huge waste of time for you to investigate.  Just as you do when faced with a complicated "proof" of Flat Earth . . . or a new Perpetual Motion Machine . . . or a complicated screed of mathematics supplied by AGW-deniers like Christopher Monckton.)

  24. Philippe Chantreau at 05:22 AM on 3 April 2021
    Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    rkcannon,

    If Zoe Phin really thinks she has a better grasp than the Kramer et al (2021) team, she should go hack it in the litterature, I'm sure that GRL would be interested. In the meantime, the Kramer et al study is even more recent than Zoe's blog post, peer-reviewed and published, so it was picked up by the SkS team. It uses the data from CERES, whic includes the ERB instruments. Kramer et al find 0.5 W/sq meter increase just between 2003 and 2018.

    Kramer et al (2021)

    NASA's press release on the paper.

     

  25. Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

    Can someone please comment on this article?  Why is overall radiation still constant over last couple decades? https://notrickszone.com/2021/02/28/faulty-hypothesis-nasa-erb-measurements-dont-show-significant-radiative-budget-differences/

  26. Clock is running on our reliance on vegetation as a steady 'carbon sink'

    Seems there is no particular point in planting trees when the planet's principal oxygen producing organisms, phytoplankton, are  being marched off to extinction.

  27. Clock is running on our reliance on vegetation as a steady 'carbon sink'

       This does not seem like new information. Tim Flannery wrote about this in "The Weathermakers". Plant growth from excess CO2 has always produced toughened leaf structures, undesirable phenolics, etc. At the same time, other scientists report increasing losses in oxygen production by phytoplankton, themselves imperiled by  ocean acidification and warming from the CO2 problem...etc.

  28. It's planetary movements

    Likitwarm @7,

    The intervening comment provides answer to the direct question you pose.

    I think it should be added that this correlation you invoke certainly does not imply any causation. This is not because it is but an instance of coincidental curve-fitting, but simply because there is no correlation.

    The measure of Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum which provides one side of the corelation is in the words of its creator "nonsense"  while the other side (already a very poor fit for a correlation,) is but one version of the measure and additionally incomplete in its presentation. Note the prediction of the creator of the graphic.

    "According to this connection, the current warming rate should slow down a little now, but will grow to local maximum arround year 2040, from which point it should drop to next little ice age arround year 2430 and to next warming arround year 2900."

    The "current warming rate" presented runs up to 1979. Has the post-1979 warming rate 'slowed down'? It hasn't. It has done the exact opposite and has been doing so for forty years. Thus the complete presentation of this second side of the correlation results in a very very bad fit.

    Then you do tell us @3, "I think I'm in over my head." You apprear to be correct with that statement.

  29. It's planetary movements

    To further add to Rob's comment, the time scales in which CO2 causes a tempaerature rise, and  a temperature rise causes a CO2 rise are very different.

    For a temperature rise to cause a CO2 rise, you need to wait while ecosystems and oceans slowly adapt to the temperature rise - hundreds to thousands of years.

    CO2 rising from fossil fuel combustion is taking only decades to cause a rise in temperature.

    Time scales are important.

  30. It's planetary movements

    Correlation does imply causation. In fact, correlation is necessary for causation. It's just not sufficient.

  31. It's planetary movements

    Likeitwarm : if I may add to Rob Honeycutt's comment :-

    Your thinking seems muddled and confused.

    A rise in temperature can cause a rise in atmospheric CO2.  And a rise in CO2 can cause a rise in temperature (the last 200 years being an excellent example of that . . . and you can find other examples in the paleo history).   But I suspect you already knew that.

    Just to put things in perspective : the planetary temperature has been falling gradually for about 4,000 years ~ a fall of roughly 0.7 degreesC.   The recent Medieval Warm Period [MWP] and the Little Ice Age [LIA] have been very small blips (around 0.3 degrees up or down) on that background decline.  So the MWP and LIA have been insignificant in comparison with the overall trend since the peak of the Holocene.

    But the modern temperature has now risen far above the MWP and is probably even slightly higher than the previous plateau of the Holocene ( 5-10,000 years ago ).  And it is still rising fast.  The onset of next major ice age (glaciation) was due in around 15-25,000 years' time . . . but is now postponed far beyond that time span.

    Sadly, the movement of the planets Jupiter and Saturn have nix to do with the Earth's climate.  But they may have some influence on your personal life, Likeitwarm ~ if you yourself believe in Astrology.  (Are you a Cancer or a Capricorn perhaps . . . or more likely a Taurus ?   Or perhaps all three ? )

  32. Rob Honeycutt at 05:02 AM on 1 April 2021
    It's planetary movements

    Likeitwarm... No, because there is a definable mechanism for CO2 being the cause of warming. We know CO2 is a long-lived, non-condensing greenhouse gas. We know that other greenhouse gases, like water vapor, are feedbacks (short-lived, condensing GHG's) that respond to changes in temperature.

    You kind of have to look at the whole puzzle, not just the isolated bits.

  33. It's planetary movements

    MA Rodger @6

    Well, I guess that I have perpetrated a case of correlation does not imply causation. I've heard that a lot.  I had a thought on that, doesn't that same principal apply to a rise in temperature just happening to correlate to a rise in CO2? Which is it, CO2 causing the rise in temperature or the rise in temperature causing the rise in CO2 or niether?

  34. Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'

    David:

    The moderator comment you are looking at (which was entered by me) is in response to deleted contents for comment #2, from jamesh.

    That particular user has been making a habit of posting off-topic responses that are not connected to the topic at hand.

    Anyone is welcome to participate here, according to the Comments Policy that is linked to in the line just below "Post a Comment" when you are logged in.

    Moderator comments appear in green boxes, to distinguish them from general comments from any normal users. They apply specifically to that one comment.

  35. UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target

    MAR @2, thats unfortunate to hear. You live there so you would obviously know. Looks like the material I was reading some time ago put a rosy glow on things. Still, its important to acknowledge that their leaders have made some progress on at least some things like wind power. Carrot and stick psychology.

  36. Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'

    This message is very confusing to me.  Does it means I should erarse this site and just go away?  In the message the moderator uses the word "you" as continuing to do whatever. Does this mean "me?"  

    I don't recall making any comments on this site?  I don't mind leaving it if you want that, or your moderator whats that?  Never saw such a threatening message with mo content to me? 

    My book on climate change sells well in Europe and Asia. I guess I'll post this comment on chat sites there to see if they should abvoid this site as well?  Hope this helps  you get rid of readers.

     

    "Moderator Response:

    [BL] Despite repeated warnings, you continue to fail to find proper places to discuss items."

  37. Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'

    [Deleted]

     

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Despite repeated warnings, you continue to fail to find proper places to discuss items.

    Final Warning

    Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

    Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
     
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  38. prove we are smart at 19:48 PM on 30 March 2021
    Biden's executive orders on climate have broad public support

    Nice reading , however in my opinium, until you stop political parties of all persuasions accepting donations/(bribes) as in my Australian example here, the world will still keep warming . https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/woodside-leads-the-pack-in-fossil-fuel-political-donation-spree/ar-BB1cRWaw

  39. Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'

    Would love to hear from folks who did a screening in the US south ... scary thought

  40. It's planetary movements

    Likeitwarm @3,

    You appear to be wanting to convert Semi's assertions into something more than they merit.

    Semi says that the Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum (which even Semi brands as as "nonsense") "seems to match the climatologic events" and also "roughly correspond to human civilization thriving" (although I would suggest Semi demonstrates a pretty poor grasp of the chronology of "human civilisation").

    From that rather weak relational description you are asserting there is a "correlation" (your assertion because Semi does not go so far). And if you examine the data that you assert is correlated (as shown in Semi's Fig 81 on p50), it is far from convincing. And it gets worst. Note the Moberg et at proxy data only reaches to 1979, since when NH temperatures have risen by +1.3ºC. Semi strangely omits the vertical scaling from his graphics, but a quick look at Moberg et al shows his smoothed 2000-year NH proxy reconstruction has a full range of 0ºC down to -0.7ºC meaning if the last 40 years were plotted onto that Fig 81, the NH temperature trace wouldn't just be off the graph, it would be off the page!!

    So I would strongly caution you to ignore all ideas of there being something 'matching' or 'corresponding'  shown and certainly not any correlating.

  41. Daniel Bailey at 02:45 AM on 30 March 2021
    It's planetary movements

    "there is no effect on our climate"

    Likeitwarm, while the Sun can influence the Earth’s climate it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity.

    One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing the recent warming of Earth’s surface and ocean comes from looking at the amount of the Sun’s energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites and what they tell us is that there has been no upward or downward overall trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth.

    A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping gases near the surface of the Earth, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.”

    It's not the Sun

    Scientists have quantified the warming caused by human activities since preindustrial times and compared that to natural temperature forcings.

    Changes in the sun's output falling on the Earth from 1750-2011 are about 0.05 Watts/meter squared.

    By comparison, human activities from 1750-2011 warm the Earth by about 2.83 Watts/meter squared (AR5, WG1, Chapter 8, section 8.3.2, p. 676).

    What this means is that the warming driven by the GHGs coming from the human burning of fossil fuels since 1750 is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval.

    Radiative forcing of climate 1750-2011

    https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#fig-2-3

    The reality is, over the past 6 decades of significant global warming, the net energy forcing the Earth receives from the Sun had been very slightly negative. As in, the Earth should be cooling, not warming, if it was the Sun driving the observed warming of the past 6 decades. Does this mean the Sun is dimming? No. Over the centuries, the Sun’s output waxes and wanes between more active periods of time, like during the 1950s and 1960s, and periods when it is very quiet for decades like in the1600s (called a Grand Solar Minimum). However, the difference between the more active periods and the quieter periods isn’t very great and is not by itself long enough or great enough to propel Earth’s climate into either a runaway heating (like happened on Venus) or into an “snowball Earth”. Overall, the Sun has increased its output by roughly 10% per billion years of its life.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-incoming-sunlight

    "brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century"

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature05072

     

    What this means, in plain English: the warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is 6 times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum.

    Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last for a century, global temperatures would still continue to warm. Because the Sun is not the only factor affecting global temperatures on Earth. 

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010GL042710
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/6dbf95a2-e322-4c92-838a-faf4dd77fa93/grl26938-fig-0002.png
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD017013
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/50198c16-0139-4e49-a7f2-e3e66e3af759/jgrd17754-fig-0006.png
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50361
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/a4f99608-109a-410d-99e6-d1c80799bccc/grl50361-fig-0002-m.jpg
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50806
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022022
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature21364
    https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/abs/2017/01/swsc170014/swsc170014.html
    https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article-abstract/58/2/2.17/3074082
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aaa124/meta
    https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/3469/2018/
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118307261
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0402-y
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0059.1
    https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/
    https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/solar-cycle-25-is-here-nasa-noaa-scientists-explain-what-that-means

    The human forcing is now the dominant forcing of climate, dwarfing all natural forcings combined. Even that from the Sun.

  42. Rob Honeycutt at 01:57 AM on 30 March 2021
    It's planetary movements

    It's important to note that it's unlikely anyone here will be alive in 2100 to see what transpires after that point. Decisions we make today must be made on what the best available science tells us is likely to happen.

    As far as science goes, I wouldn't put much credence on a paper that claims that the modern tech boom is a product of solar cycles. 

  43. It's planetary movements

    MA Rodger, #2

    Even though I think I'm in over my head, to put it in layman's terms ... So, even though there is a correlation between Semi's 934 year cycle and warm and cool periods of our climate, there is no effect on our climate?  I guess we'll see if it starts getting colder in 2100, but I won't be here.  Thanks for the explanation.

  44. CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    A reply to Likeitwarm @65 has been posted on the thread indicated as others may be curiiious about the thesis cited @65.

  45. It's planetary movements

    Likeitwarm @Elsewhere,

    You link to comment presented in Semi (2009-unpublished) 'Orbital resonance and Solar cycles' specifically p48 which says:-

    The "wave" of approximate period of 934* years, which could also probably be anti-correlated with Sun spin rate, seems to match the climatologic events of Medieval optimum and Global warming, and also the Little Ice age of Maunder minimum, and similar periods in earlier ages (fig. 81)...
    If this is right, now the Solar activity could drop a little, but will approach a larger maximum arround year 2050, not disturbed by the peak anomally, and then drop to a next little-ice-age arround 2400 AD. The time-lag between the spin rate change and activity change is still uncertain...

    The periods of low scalar angular momentum (and higher Solar activity) roughly correspond to human civilization thriving: 1450BC Egypt, 600BC Greece, India and China, 200AD Rome and China, 1200 Medieval optimum (population growth in Europe), 2000AD (present "technical boom"). The periods of high scalar angular momentum (and lower Solar activity) correspond to crisis periods of human civilization.

    According to this connection**, the current warming rate should slow down a little now, but will grow to local  maximum arround year 2040, from which point it should drop to next little ice age arround year 2430 and to next warming arround year 2900. [**This referring to the paper's Fig 81 which plots the  scalar sum of angular momentum of 9 planets and Sun with the climatologic data from Moberg et al (2005) which presents a 200-year NH hockeystick.]

    This is all about a "wave" in the Scalar sum of Angular momentum and the page also presents a NOTE saying:-

    NOTE: It was remarked, that Scalar sum of Angular momentum is a nonsense, which it is...

    I think I would have to agree with this NOTE. Angular momemtum is considered maintained in a closed system and any heat-related effects that may work beyond a close system (the sun loses 130 trillion tons of mass a year through nuclear fusion) wouldn't make a great deal of difference to that, processes which themselves may show variation but again not significantly even if the sun's position relative to the solar-system's barycrentre were a factor (which Semi [2009-unpublished] asserts is when peak Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum occur).
    Further to the NOTE, Semi (2009-unpublished) also does not set out this as an overall finding as it is unmentioned in either the abstract or conclusions.

    Of course, that does not stop the swivel-eyed denialists. I note one of the two papers referencing Semi (2009-unpublished), Holmes (2018) 'Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change ' is cites Semi (2009-unpublished) as apparently showing "Yoshimura is in evidence throughout the climate system, and in proxy records, on all time-scales," (Yoshimura [1978] being cited to support a 55-year barcentric solar-system cycle but with zero actual mention of Earthly climate in that paper).

  46. CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    I feel that I am a total neophyte, I have a lot of respect for the understanding of the atmosphere that resides in this forum.
    I don't deny the atmosphere has been warming for the past 200 years or so.
    In looking around the internet for answers, I recently read about a planetary cycle described by P.A. Semi at http://semi.gurroa.cz/Astro/Orbital_Resonance_and_Solar_Cycles.pdf page 48.
    He says this 934 year cycle coincides with the relatively short cycles of climate change, i.e., medieval warm period and medieval cold period(little ice age) and prior.
    If this cycle is fact, then the earths climate is warming now from natural processes coming out of the "Little Ice Age" and CO2 may not be the driver of recent warming of .9 deg C of the last 170 years.
    I'd love to know what others think of this.

    Moderator Response:

    [TD] That speculation is incorrect. Please see this post, and put further comments there. Everyone who wants to reply to this comment here, please please instead comment over there instead.

    [TD] People wanting to reply to this comment: Also, you might want to wait until somebody checks for sockpuppetry. "LikeItWarm" seems an odd handle for someone who has such a lot of respect, and the details in this comment seem not entirely consistent with "neophyte."

  47. Philippe Chantreau at 05:00 AM on 25 March 2021
    Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?

    Thank you for the link Bob. I felt very validated to see that, as I understood it already at the time, the stupid G&T canard was little more than a play on words leading to a convoluted strawman argument...

  48. ParadoxIntegration at 15:25 PM on 24 March 2021
    Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?

    This is my first post on SkepticalScience. I recognize that I'm over a decade late on this thread, and I don't know whether or not there might be a more appropriate place to post this. Yet, in case it's of interest, I want to share that I recently wrote a new critique of Gerlich and Tscheuschner's 2009 paper purporting to falsify the greenhouse effect. While my essay overlaps some of the insights offered by Halpern et. al. (2010), it offers its own perspective, and might be accessible to readers in a different way.

    Moderator Response:

    [BL]

    Welcome to Skeptical Science.

    None of our threads here are ever closed. As long as your post is on-topic (as yours is) it is appropriate to add a comment. It is always useful to have more information.

  49. UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target

    nigelj @1,

    As somebody who has been campaigning in the UK for a quarter of a century to get the government to wake up and take AGW seriously, my take on the achievement of the UK reaching "halfway" is to brand it "delusional." It is akin to bragging about your hill-climbing abilities and how you have scaled hafway up Snowden when all you have actually done is driven to the car park at Pen-Y-Pas (which is about a third the way up). You haven't even got you boots on yet.

    The argument I would make is that the reduction of UK emissions from 1990 (here specifically CO2 rather than CO2e which is the value used in the claim) have mainly resulted from exporting the emissions to China. The carbon footprint of UK has been calculated as being half off-shore and to have grown by 45Mt(C)/yr since 1990. Effectively, over a quarter of the UK's 165Mt(C) 1990 CO2 emissions has been exported to China.

    The Primary Energy Use has thus peaked (thanks to China), yet (as shown in this Carbonbrief post), the remaining dependence on fossil fuels (as of 2017) remains at 80% with 7% provided by nuclear which will mostly need replacing. And dig deeper into this grand achievement of Primary Energy, of the 14% from renewables, half results from replacing imported coal with imported wood chips.

    It will be interesting to see the plans now being developed by today's Tory-led government. They can't dodge this planning any longer although when the cosequences of zero carbon by 2050 is understood, I can imagine there will be an renewed attempt to kick the planning into the long grass again.

  50. UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target

    Imo the UK have made some impressive achievements cutting emissions, but the title of the Carbon Brief article "UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target" is just woefully misleading and hands deniers ammunition and says shoot us. Gains made by covid 19 don't count because most of them are temporary, so should not be used to claim the UK is half way to achieving its emissions target. The achievements without covid 19 impacts are quite good, and didn't need this sort of embelishment in the title. 

    It would be interesting to know why more progress hasn't been made with EV's. Perhaps its because the UK don't appear to offer the subsidies for EVs that Scandinavian countries do.

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