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blaisct at 12:08 PM on 1 March 2022It's albedo
Rodger @128
Once again thanks for your input and patience. My objective in these three cases was to show the difference in air quality (temp and RH) of possible man-made land changes. These air changes are related to the cloud ceiling.
Sorry for the errors. I do not do a good job going from my excel sheet to this format. I should have shown the before water step in case 1, and I did copy the results of case 1 wrong.
To correctly compare these cases a base case enthalpy change must be picked based on real world data that represents the middle part of the earth with the sun shining. I have made lots of temp vs RH plots and came up with 8 kJ/kg(da) as a good average change in enthalpy. The same data shows that adding 2g/kg dry air was typical of tropical conditions.
The short cut you suggested is ok as long as it crosses the 18g/kg water line and the 74kJ/kg(da) (66+8) line simultaneously. The two albedo cases are ether side of the 8kJ/kg base case at 6.4 kJ/kg and 9.7kJ/kg. I corrected the cases to include the case 1 with out water added and the enthalpy difference for each case. All cases start at the same 25’C and 80%RH.
Cloud ceiling (m) = (ground temp. – ground dew point)/2.6 *1000*0.3084
I hope all the errors are out of these cases and we can discuss the conclusions.
1. These simple cases show that the beginning (event 1) of the LHAC theory in @121is valid in that land changes that result in lower available moisture will produce higher temperatures and lower RH air even if the albedo is increased.
2. This higher temperature lower humidity air is correlated to cloud ceiling.
Base case water added: typical rain forest (other vegetation or water sources would have less water added)
Base case no water: Just to show what the rain forest would look like without water added. Note same enthalpy change and same dew point of all the other cases.
Low albedo: intended to simulate a UHI.
High albedo: intended to simulate the rain forest conversion in Amazonia.
Summary of these cases:
Base case water added: 8kJ/kg(da), 27.9’C, 75.5% RH, 23.3 dew point calculating 561 m ceiling
Base case no water: 8kJ/kg(da), 32.5’C, 52.0% RH, 21.4’C dew point calculating 1318 m ceiling
Low albedo: 9,7kJ/kg(da), 33.4’C, 47.0% RH, 21.4’C dew point calculating 1543 m ceiling
High albedo: 6.7kJ/kg(da), 31.5’C, 55.5% RH, 21.4’C dew point calculating 1171 m ceiling
Cloud ceiling and cloud cover should have a negative correlation? This exercise also suggests that the LHAC theory is more related to cloud prevention than destruction. The real-world origins of the ceiling correlation to temp and dew point suggest the plume of hot low RH air reaches high into the atmosphere supporting the model in Figure 3 @121.
Comments on how big (% of earth’s surface) this effect is? See event 2 calculation @121. I get 7.8% of the earth surface that could be affected by hot low RH air to some degree. Figure 2 @121 show a decreasing RH over time, suggesting low RH air is being produce. -
Bob Loblaw at 11:13 AM on 1 March 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
alonerock:
That seems to be a zombie myth resulting from a search-and-replace on the old canard that CFCs cannot reach the stratosphere because they are "heavier than air". As in all good zombie myths, there is a tiny smidgeon of truth to the idea that heavy gases settle at the bottom - c.f. the risks of toxic gases in enclosed spaces. The trick in enclosed spaces is that air does not circulate.
As scaddenp points out, turbulent mixing is so common in the atmosphere that nearly all non-reactive gases are largely uniformly mixed. After all, N2 is lighter than O2, and yet we do not see those concentrations change with height. If the O2 all settled to the bottom of the atmosphere, fire hazards would be extremely high.
And the Mauna Loa CO2 observations are at an altitude of about 3400m above sea level - yet are much the same as those at much lower altitudes.
Google Scholar will provide lots of papers with measurements of vertical profiles if you search for "atmospheric CO2 concentrations vertical profile".
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scaddenp at 10:37 AM on 1 March 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
alonerock - the amazing confidence of the ignorant continues to surprize. Gases are well-mixed by kinetic motions of molecules. This is demostration that is usually done at high school. (Bromine being much heavier than CO2)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oLPBnhOCjM
Of course, you could also measure the vertical concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere if you want to deny the kinetic theory of gases. Not hard to find. eg https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/2455/2011/acp-11-2455-2011.pdf
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Eclectic at 09:22 AM on 1 March 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Fair enough , BL , on the deletion. There was (IMO) some amusement value in the lame excuses and schoolyard argumentation from the good Santalives.
The real danger of his tonto antics, is that the SkS readers might relax into smug superiority feelings, on seeing his low-quality nonsense.
In the earlier years of SkS , there were a handful of high-quality trolls ~ capable of half-skilful dissimulation (of intentions) , and capable of some subtlety of argument [ultimately refuted, of course]. These superior ones provided less amusement but more entertainment & intellectual exercise.
Ah, where are the Trolls of Yesteryear ? And is their seeming demise a good sign or a bad sign of the way things are going ?
[ Please delete this post if you feel it is too far Off Topic. ]
Moderator Response:[BL] Let's let that dead horse rest in peace.
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Evan at 08:55 AM on 1 March 2022The problem of growth in a finite world
OPOF, you are too clever. :-)
It is indeed a compound rate. But 1 day * 1.01^10 = 1.1046 which when rounded down, is 1.10. So the first example comes out about the same whether is grows arithmetically or geometrically. And whether the rate is 232 or 300 after 1.5 years, I hope you agree that the message is the same: growth always leads to catastrophic consumption, emissions, etc.
To get from 232 to 300 days consumed per calendar day at a compounding growth rate of 1% requires just an additional 26 days. The actual number was 1.57 years. Because I did not expect anybody to check my math, I used a convenient, easy to remember number of 1.5 year, instead of writing the nerdy number of 1.57, or rounding up to 1.6.
Thanks for keeping me on my toes. :-)
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:09 AM on 1 March 2022The problem of growth in a finite world
The selected topic is an excellent way to present the problem and potential solutions.
I am preparing some thoughts that may improve the presentation. But I need to ask about: "...after 1.5 years we are consuming our lives 300 times faster than on Day 1!"
With the growth rate being simple growth (after 10 days of 1% growth the result is a rate of 1.1000 days per day) after 1.5 years the rate would increase from '1.0 day per day' to '6.47 days per day'.
Using coumpounding increase (each day is 1% more than the day before), which is more like the growth pursued by investors, a compound rate of 1% per day would result in a consumption of life rate of '232 days per day' after 1.5 years.
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alonerock at 03:51 AM on 1 March 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Can anyone please suggest some links or scholarly articles pertaining to the relationship of CO2 density versus air density ? A lady recently stated that CO2 resides near the surface of the Earth due to its greater density and that is why she does not believe in its contribution in climate change. I want to prove her wrong !
I am an expert at biogeochemistry, not atmospheric chemistry, but my undertstanding is that due to air currents, atmospheric gasses are reasonably well mixed ? I recently finished a paper on the damage that Earthworms have established to the forest ecology of Northern New England (former glaciated soils), which includes their contibution tof releasing CO2, if anyone is interested.
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Steve L at 03:19 AM on 1 March 2022Global Surface Temperature: Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 1
I still find the "Going down the up escalator" graph to be very useful. In a way, I prefer it to the rebuttal to "It's cooling" climate myth rebuttal. I wish there was a more up-to-date version. In fact, it would be nice to do this and even add citations to the escalator figure (like Svensmark — I had to click his linked name in the rebuttal article to go to the archived WUWT to see that he made the claim of cooling 12 years ago). Is anyone interested in building an automatically updated version? (Out of my league on a technical level, I'm afraid.)
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JohnSeers at 20:59 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
SantaLives @ 19
"I have read nearly everyone of the Climate Myth and many of the comments. They are less than convincing ..."
Really? You have read nearly all the Climate Myths? They are ALL less than convincing? ALL of them? That comment makes you even less than convincing as you cannot come up with just one point and discuss it sensibly. You are not commenting honestly or in good faith.
Hopefully the Grim Moderator will pay a visit soon.Moderator Response:[BL] Due to his repeated inability to read, understand, and follow the Comments Policy, and his repeated pointless,non-responsive behavior in the discussions, Santalives will no longer be participating here.
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Eclectic at 19:41 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
MA Rodger @42 ,
Yep, he often is on WUWT, denying Greenhouse Effect. Incorrigible.
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MA Rodger at 17:53 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Concerning 'The Greenhouse Defect' website.
At the back-end of last year I encontered a commenter at RealClimate calling himself E. Schaffer who linked his presence there to that defective website. E. Schaffer proved to be a proper numpty.
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Eclectic at 16:03 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @40 . . . er, no ~ I would say that the truth is more important than "reputation for maturity". Think: Galileo . . . who really wasn't trying very hard to win a Miss Congeniality contest. Einstein was a bit of a flake when it comes to treating his first wife. Even Isaac Newton could be a bit of a curmudgeon. Santalives, earnest seekers of the truth ~ such as yourself ~ should never seek to deflect the scientific argument by means of Tone Policing. Wokeness is not welcome at SkS.
AFAICT , the SkS site here is educational ~ in providing a huge source of excellent & well-organized scientific information (and links) for your convenience. And a pathway for self-education. Especially via the Most Used Climate Myths ~ a really excellent section. But you have to do the lion's share of work yourself. For it is a shoe-string organization, run by a small number of volunteers. There's not a "boiler room" full of staff eager & willing to spend countless hours spoonfeeding you. Sorry.
Did you really think all the angry nutters at WUWT or other denialist sites, could be educated on science? No, they don't want to be.
SkS is for normal people who are interested in learning about climate ~ an important and interesting subject.
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Santalives at 15:32 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@Eclectic 39. I agree A insulting B does not means A arguments are automatically wrong but it does call into question A's maturity which diminishes A in the eye of the reader.
But the topic ot hand you say to rebutte articles like this the-holy-grail-of-ecs is too time consuming, lifes too short. But I would have thought isn't that one of the key purpose of the site. If noneone is taking on the people writing these articles then they have the field to themselves. It was one of the main reasons I came to this site.
Moderator Response:[BL] Another substance-free pointless comment deleted.
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Eclectic at 14:32 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Thanks, Santalives @38 , though the name of the author/s at the greenhousedefect blogsite is irrelevant to his argument ~ just as my borderline-insulting description of him is likewise irrelevant. ~Because none of us would take the schoolyard attitude that: if A insults or hurts the feelings of B , then A's arguments are automatically wrong. None of us would wish to act like a radical woke snowflake Leftie . . . as I'm sure you will agree !
So what are the connections between the widely-condemned Coe et al., paper? ( But let me first point out that Coe is a regular in the comments columns at WUWT so in effect, WUWT is featuring an "inside job".) Quite simply, both state the planetary ECS is negligible. Despite a mountain of evidence that they're wrong. Not that this ever bothers Denialists ~ they simply close their eyes and say: What forest of evidence, what mountain?
And what is so wrong about the numptiness of greenhousedefect ? Reply is : How long have you got? But I won't tire the readers here, by going into all the details. For to quote the sainted Rud Istvan (at WUWT ) who, when pressed for detailed analysis of the problems of the Coe paper, said: "Life is too short to sort that out." [unquote]
Let me just say: the greenhousedefect author's biggest mistake is that, like Spinoza, he simply creates definitions to suit himself. I see that his brain is shying away from examining the empirical data ~ the physical evidence of the bleeding-obvious GHE. It's a marvel of convoluted rhetorical thinking, where he seeks to fool himself.
. . . and Robin Hood he ain't, when it comes to archery. By choice !
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Santalives at 13:43 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@Eclectic 37. I would be interested in you coments on that site as I only stumbled across it recently. Have read a few articles which seem very plausible and written in a first person style. But there is no info on the author or I suspect multiple authors as some writing style changes mid article.
This is still fun, but it's a bit like going on a date and your mum comes along as Chaperone.
Moderator Response:[BL] We are no longer interested in hearing what you have to say.
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Eclectic at 13:25 PM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @36 . . . it is a marvel how you are magnetically attracted to the Numpties, time and again.
Really, Santalives, you wish to back up the Numpty paper by Coe et al., by appealing to the authority of the even bigger Numpty at the greenhousedefect.com blogsite? (As linked at the now-deleted part of your #36. ) The same gh-defective site which states: "It is impossible to produce an ECS beyond 0.5K ."
Granted, the gh-defective author sounds like his IQ is higher than Coe's above-average IQ. But what use is intelligence if it is not used rationally? So many of these prominent denialists (even Nobel Laureates) are like insane medieval longbowmen. They have a good bow, a good arrow, and a strong arm. But their emotional bias & motivated reasoning cause them to turn their bow & arrow 20 degrees to one side of the target. That's why they score Zero in the scientific field of climate. Santalives, it is a pity you don't wish to recognize that.
[ After coffee ~ more on the greenhousedefect site . . . as I hope the Moderator will regard that as informative for readers who have never encountered that blogsite. ]
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Santalives at 11:06 AM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
MA Rodger @31. Thanks for your response I thinks it the first time somone has actually refuted the science. But really name calling the authors numpties. I am an average guy reading these posts (like lots of others) trying to understand the issues, but will generally dismiss comments that start name calling. Anyway I went over to wuwt which is having a lively debate and would warn anyone there is a very wide(weird) degree of views. But one of the last posts refutes the article also but say the result is still bascially correct, the basis for tha; greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/a-total-synthesis-the-ecs-estimate
The scope of this article is to outline how consensus assumptions violate logical restrictions and produce impossible outcomes. Whether an ECS of about 0.45K could somehow fit an extended “consensus range”, if something like it even exists, is not the question. Rather this estimate is based on the very same foundations the orthodoxy uses. The only difference is in the elimination of logical mistakes. And these mistakes are undeniable.
Moderator Response:[BL] No, it isn't. You just aren't listening. And you are not actually responding in any manner that suggests you understand or read the response in any detail.
Sections that complain about others,and refer to other blogs without actually responding to comments posted here, deleted.
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MA Rodger at 07:51 AM on 28 February 2022It's albedo
blaisct @127,
I'm not sure this interchange is going anywhere. You are not noting the obvious errors in these numbers you are throwing around and if they were corrected I don't see any relevance to the climate change occuring, either globally or regionally.
On the errors thing, do note that your numbers from the Free Online Interactive Psychrometric Chart are wrong. Consider simplifying the process you are trying to represent. This is not some reversable process so all that matters is the start & end points, not the route between.
Thus if you choose to start at 25°C & RH=80%, you can add the SH from 16g/kg to 18g/kg (that is 11% increase not 22%) giving RH rising to 89.4% & Enthalpy increasing from 66kJ/kg to 71kJ/kg.
Now if you add further energy through warming with SH fixed at 18kJ/kg, the enthalpy will rise and the RH will drop with that warming.
So your Case 3 with an endpoint of 72.3kJ/kg gives a temperature increased from +25°C to +26.2°C & RH drops to 83.6%.
Your Case 1 with an endpoint of 74kJ/kg gives a temperature increase to +28°C & RH dropping to 75.5%.
And your Case 2 with reduced albedo giving additional warming to +9.7kJ/kg from the same start conditions yields an endpoint of +29.3°C & RH dropping to 69.7%.But these are just numbers. I don't see them relating to what we see of the real world climate change.
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nigelj at 06:15 AM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
MAR @31, thanks for going to that effort. It's interesing and your comments generally look right to me. The paper looks suspicious straight away because we have already had considerably more warming than their calculations suggest we should have had. However could you (or anyone else) perhaps explain in simpler laypersons terms why the n factor is flawed. If you have a spare moment.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:56 AM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
I thought that n factor looked funny.
I also thought that the publication looked suspicious. This is not a paper that I would ever had paid attention to, regardless of what it said.
Explanation: After following this so-called debate for 20 years, digging in the "skeptics" (a qualificative they truly don't deserve) arguments and examining what is actually in the science litterature to the best extent of my abilities, I reached the conclusion that the weight of the scientific evidence points, without contest, to CO2 caused anthropogenic warming.
However, that does not exonerate me from being critical toward any piece of information. If something as dubious, as low quality, poorly thought out as Coe, Fabinski & Wiegleb came along in a publication with all the hallmarks of a pseudo-journal, but with a conclusion reinforcing the one I already reached, I would dismiss it as junk because, well, it is.
That is what being skeptical consists of.
I'm having serious doubts that Santalives is putting forth a sincere effort to evaluate information.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:07 AM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
In my comment @32, there is an unstated, but undeniable, link to understanding the harm of rapid climate changes due to human activity.
Structures are designed to safely resist expected climate conditions. If those climate conditions (such as wind speed, snow load, rain accumulation on roofs) change rapidly before the end of use of what has been built they can harmfully change the performance requirements, increasing the chance of a harmful outcome of items that were developed without consideration of the changed performance requirements.
And developments that would be affected by sea level rise are also a concern 'from a Civil Engineer's perspective' of things like roads and sewers and surface run-off management, and concern a structural engineer if the higher water levels compromise the performance of the foundation.
However, a more significant concern for harm done is likely the changes of climate conditions affecting developed regional agricultural practices. There are no guarantees that developed agriculture can adapt to climate changes. And growing conditions shifted to new regions can be very harmful to regional developed societies.
And that leads to understanding the additional concerns for the harm of unsustainable industrial agricultural practices like heavy fertilizer and pesticide use, or reduced genetic diversity in agriculture. And deforestation and heavy use of fossil fuels in industrial agriculture development has the added harm of climate change impacts.
And there is so much more 'developed activity' that is harmful and unsustainable, all excused by misleading marketing that promotes the popularity of harmful unsustainable pursuits of benefit in the short-term.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:48 AM on 28 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives,
It is possible that you have become one of the many unwitting victims of harmful misleading marketers. The following may help.
I am an engineer. I learned to have the fundamental ethic of "pursuing increased awareness and improved understanding and applying what I learn to limit harm done and help develop lasting improvements for Others". But I have also learned that my work as a Civil Engineer, particularly my Structural Engineering work, divisively sets me apart from other Appliers of Science, especially the appliers of marketing science. My work powerfully motivates me to have that fundamental ethic govern over pursuit of popularity or profit. If I do not govern what I do that way "People will be far more likely to Die".
I also have an MBA. So I understand the powerful motivation Others can develop. They will be powerfully tempted to allow pursuit of personal benefit (like popularity or profit) to govern over 'concerns to limit harm done or develop lasting improvements for Others'.
As a Structural Engineer if I learn that an existing development is harmful or unsafe I am ethically obliged to push to have the use of the existing development be stopped until it can be made to be safe. Others who benefit from the risky harmful developments will resist the required corrections, because they do not want to suffer the loss of personal benefit that is associated with being governed to have safer, less harmful, developments.
Many developed societies, especially the western capitalist ones (but certainly not exclusively western capitalist ones), can be understood to harmfully allow misleading marketing in pursuit of popularity or profit to govern over concerns for limiting harm done or compromise the understanding of what is required to limit harm done and develop lasting improvements.
Misleading marketing is a powerful "Applied Science". And it is likely that you have, like so many others, developed your thinking, learned, while immersed in the influence of misleading marketing. I even notice other engineers who have been motivated away from governing their thoughts and actions base on limiting harm done and developing lasting improvements. The temptation to acquire more personal status relative to others is very powerful. And misleading marketers prey on that human vulnerability by producing and disseminating harmful misunderstandings that will be very tempting.
Becoming aware of the temptation to be harmfully misled is an important first step. The next step is to learn to change your mind for Good Reason (to be less harmful and more helpful) so that you are less likely to be tempted to be harmfully misled by messages that appeal to your 'gut instinct' or 'developed personal preferred beliefs'. If I, or any other structural engineer, were to design structures based on 'gut instinct' or 'developed personal preferred beliefs' the results would likely be disastrous.
I hope helps you appreciate the ways that others here have been trying to help you.
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MA Rodger at 22:43 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @28,
You now present a third pile of nonsense here at SkS. At least you show a level of consistency. Coe et al (2021) 'The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures' is as ridiculous as the other two you presented.Coe et al (2012) claims that it addresses the issue of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) which, as is well known, has not been well-nailed-down by science for four decades now. So it would be quite a feat if there was even a smidgeon of promise in this paper to some contribution to the asssessment of ECS.
I could set out why this is an entirely non-scientific paper that well deserves its place in the trash can but in your ignorance you would likely see this as "one side" being disrespectful to "the other side".So instead let me address what these numpties Coe, Fabinski & Wiegleb are doing that is so badly wrong.
The crux of the ignorance presented within Coe et al (2012) begins to congeal in their Section 1.4. Here they derive entirely on their own** a value called “n” the “energy retention factor” given "a" the "atmospheric absorptivity" (or the proportion of surface radiation gets to space through a clear atmosphere. By using HITRAN to derive "a" (the calculated percentage of surface radiation that reaches space through that clear atmosphere), they derive "n" by balancing "a" against the radiation that has to reach space to balance the incoming solar warming.
The process they use runs as follows.
(**Note the one citation presented by the numpties for this grand work, Wilson & Gea-Banacloche [2012], is a total misrepresentation.)If a black body of 288K (representing the surface temperature) was in equilibrium with today's absorbed solar energy which equates to a 255K black body, they calculate that the energy out into space would be just 61.5% of the 288K black body radiation.
Thus, they derive for today's atmosphere (with a=a0) n.a0 = 38.5% of the surface radiation will be absorbed by the atmosphere. However, they also calculate using the grown-up HITRAN database, that the transmission through today's clear atmosphere of such 288K black body radiation would be a0 = 73.0% allowing them to derive in their Section 2.7 a value for "n"; n = 52.7%.
And this incredibly simplistic method allows all the sceintific effort over the last four decades attempting to derive accurate ECS values to be sidestepped. Even the complex impact of clouds on this finding is sweetly side-stepped because, as they tell us in their Section 5.1, clouds are already accounted for in the derivation of "n".And all this is their own work. No supporting evidence. What clever numpties are these Coe, Fabinski & Wiegleb.
Of course, there are feedback mechanisms to be negotiated and the numpties calculate (using simplistic assumptins) feedback values for water vapour (+18%) and the wavelength change in the radiation from a warmer world (-5%) with a net result feedback of (1.18 x 0.95 =) +12%.
They then calculate the impact of differing levels of CO2 GHGs on the absorption of surface radiation through a clear atmosphere to calculate direct warming from a doubling of CO2 (400ppm to 800ppm) of +0.45ºC (when the science is irrefutably sure the value is +1.0ºC) and thus with a feedback of +12%, they can derive ECS = +0.5ºC (when the science says +1.5ºC to +4.5ºC).Of course, the GH-effect doesn't work in anything like the manner assumed by Coe et al (2012) so all these numpties Coe, Fabinski & Wiegleb are doing is advertising their own stupidity.
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BaerbelW at 21:07 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@Santalives #28
What in this caveat don't you (want to) understand?
"Here are a few initial "red flags" about the paper and journal it has been published in - none of which necessarily mean that the content is actually wrong but that it at least needs to be taken with a suitably large grain of salt."
Bottom line: The likelihood that the paper is correct is fairly small and it's fair game to point that out, lest some gullible people might fall for it. Some papers might warrant a proper response, others not so much if indicators like those listed point to it not being up to standards.
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Eclectic at 19:15 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Thanks, BaerbelW @28 , for those "identifiers".
Amusing how Santalives wants a full-genome DNA analysis of "his" paper, even when the average guy (like me) can look at the paper and say :- If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck . . . and lays a great big duck egg . . . then it is a duck. No DNA test needed. ;-)
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Santalives at 18:49 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Baerbelw @ 27. Thanks for that response as you confirmed my hypothesis that rather there be any attempt at serious rebuttal @19 comments will be to trash the authors, the publication or dismiss it on the grounds its settled science
Moderator Response:[BL] Note that in one of your earliest comments here, you mentioned a paper with "backscatter" in its title, and commented "The experiment is a fairly straight forward test of the physical properties of c02 to produce back scatter radiation.".
To anyone with even a minor undergraduate-level understanding of the physics of CO2 and climate change, the use of the phrase "back-scatter" in this context shows an abysmal knowledge of how the greenhouse effect works in the atmosphere.
In a comment on a climate science blog. it shows a level of ignorance that can be remedied by learning.
On an undergraduate test, it would result a grade of zero on that question.
In a "scientific" publication, it gives an immediate indication that the authors, reviewers (if there really were any) and editor are completely unqualified to to be writing about or publishing anything on CO2 and climate.
Yes, in some cases it is easy to know that a "paper" is rubbish.
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BaerbelW at 18:10 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@Santalives #19
We had received an email about the paper you mentioned and sent back the below as an initial reply. It contains some quick hints of what to check when encountering a paper to quickly judge it's credibility (or lack thereof):
Here are a few initial "red flags" about the paper and journal it has been published in - none of which necessarily mean that the content is actually wrong but that it at least needs to be taken with a suitably large grain of salt.
- Science Publishing Group, which publishes the "journal", is on Beall's list which is a collection of potentially predatory journals
- The "journal" doesn't have/show an impact factor
- less than 200 papers have thus far been published in it
- judging by the time line - Received: Aug. 2, 2021; Accepted: Aug. 11, 2021; Published: Aug. 23, 2021 - not much (if any) proper peer review happened
- non of the authors seems to have a background in climate science, two of them are retired from companies
- questionable authors like William Happer and Herman Harde are listed in the references
In addition, the authors appear to have made a common (or perhaps even deliberate?) error in evaluating the total greenhouse effect (which we know is much larger than the observed changes) instead of the change to the greenhouse effect (which is what matters in discussions of climate change).
Hope this helps to put this publication into perspective!
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Eclectic at 16:47 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @25 , I note that you still haven't played any valid card.
As for the energetic Rud Istvan, you are mistaken. He appears in many threads, often more than once, at WUWT. He doen't need to explain everything, every time over, to you. He often has something sensible to say (in contradistinction to perhaps 85% of the run-of-the-mill WUWT commenters).
True, he's not a scientist nor a climate scientist. He's more the case of an intelligent guy who's allowed himself to be torpedoed by his own emotions that are producing a bunch of motivated reasonings. Sad. But he's always worth reading, because he can come out with some useful information or some contrarian points worthy of consideration (if only briefly ! )
# Yes, Santalives, WUWT is not quite a complete wasteland of cranks, conspiracist nutters, and luny political extremists. It is possible to learn a bit at WUWT ~ but you have to start with a solid knowledge of science, so you can immediately spot the all the garbage and faulty logic and self-delusion which so many WUWT regulars keep recycling day after day and year after year. So, Santalives, it wouldn't be genuinely useful to you in the slightest. Sorry. The WUWT site is a disorganized mess, and a hopeless case for educating the novice.
For myself reading WUWT , I have a quick skim through the Leading Articles (which are mostly a lot of sour grapes, designed to generate clicks). Anything looking like it might be a bit scientific [though mostly these ones are recycled trash] . . . then I skim through the comments columns ~ trying not to read all the nauseating rubbish comments, and I look for the tiny number of regulars' names who might just be worth a consideration. So scanning through is usually only taking a brief time !
Santalives, if you want to educate yourself above the know-nothing level, then you'll need to do the bulk of the heavy lifting yourself. Start at your zero level (where you seem incapable of judging good from bad) and take one step at a time. You cannot expect me or Rud Istvan to spend umpteen hours spoonfeeding you. Especially when you are giving out a strong vibe that you are reluctant to learn . . . and reluctant to accept that anyone (scientist or denialist) knows more than you.
Good luck in improving yourself !
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Santalives at 14:51 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Eclectic @24. I'm glad Rud Istvan is energetic but maybe he shouldn't being making statements like those quoted above and where he cannot explain himself other than point to other scientists who, he thinks because they are labelled deniers makes his rebuttal valid.
I thought the whole point of sks was to to provide rebuttal to evidence presented not play he said, she said. Simply you said the paper is rubbish, based on what? Are any of the equations wrong?
Moderator Response:[BL] This comment will will be left intact, as others have responded, but note that is violates several aspects of the comments policy, and would have been deleted entirely. Santalives is simply repeating his nonsense over and over again, without responding directly to any previous criticisms.
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Eclectic at 14:23 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @23 . . . very droll of you, again. The SkS comments column not being in a logical dated order, is something worthy of the Stephen Colbert show. (Does Stephen have a successor lined up yet?)
And yes, Santalives, you should get a handle and jump right into the tepid . . . er, water . . . at the comments columns of WUWT . You can then tell Rud Istvan (whose level of energy I respect) that he should completely ignore all published papers older than 12 months. Tough about Einstein and all that crew . . . but really, they were so yesterday's fashions. Thumbs up !
Santalives, for a long time here, you have been asked to play a sensible card. So far, all you've played are two Jokers [Koutsoyiannis paper and Coe paper]. I would like to think that's that for now, and you are going to get serious. But I am worried by the multi-deck sized bulge up your left sleeve. ( Is it possible to buy a deck which is all Jokers? ~Probably only at the WUWT shop.)
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Santalives at 12:54 PM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Eclectic, @22
If you read what I wrote it was it would be useful if comments could be sorted by date. That way you could read the latest comments rather than start with stuff from a decade ago. But glad you thought that's funny.
Not sure about Rud, his very first statement is:
Figure 13 is wrong, casting all that follows in doubt
When asked why, his answer is
I dunno why or how figure 13 is wrong.
Then goes off quoting some other paper from 12 years ago.
Anyway as Philipe Chantreau said here's hoping something with some knowledge on the subject will enlighten us all.
Moderator Response:[BL] Please buy a clue. You can read the most recent comments on a thread by starting at the end. Your expectation that someone else work to sort the material into a convenient order for your taste is a strong indication of you wlilingness to do any work yourself.
...and 12 years ago is recent, in a scientific discipline that goes back to the 1800s. The current science is built on a solid foundation, and if you fail to consider that foundation when examining the current science, you end up believing all sorts of clap-trap.
As stated previously, you have huge amounts of learning to do. You have provided zero indication that you have read, and understood, any of the material you claim to have knowledge of.
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Eclectic at 11:47 AM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @19 , it is always a fine day for me when I come across two good jokes in a day. (A) The first is that you say you've read "nearly every one of the [over 200] Climate Myth and many of the comments." And how you felt that the comments were not arranged by date. Thank you for your personal revelations in these matters. Difficult to top.
(B) The second joke: was the David Coe et al., paper which you linked to @ WattsUpWithThat blogsite. Hilarious. Even your paper by the good professor Koutsoyiannis looks half-way sane in comparison.
Santalives, sit down and put your thinking cap on. As Philippe Chantreau [above] says, the Coe paper is wildly . . . wildly . . . inconsistent with everything that's within arm-reach of conventional climate science. IIRC, only the good Lord Monckton has ever come out with a similar figure to Coe's ultra-low 0.5K figure for total climate sensitivity to CO2. And Monckton seems to produce new & wildly high/low ECS figures annually (but with a strong bias toward Zero).
Now, I've looked through the WUWT assessment of the Coe paper. Not encouraging, at all. As usual, a number of commenters there deny that CO2 absorbs radiation and/or deny that there is any GreenHouse Effect whatsoever. At my own time of writing [>80 comments] no expert scientist has appeared to make comment at WUWT . Especially no climate scientist. Yes, that is the usual lofty standard of scientific analysis at WUWT .
# However, Santalives, if you scroll down to a couple of comments by Rud Istvan [an intelligent & well-informed guy, if you make allowance for his bad case of motivated reasoning on climate] . . . you will find he shows that some semi-respectable "contrarian" scientists such as Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen give a climate sensitivity of 1.1 - 1.2 for CO2 alone [without the large additional feedback from H2O ].
'Nuff said. The Coe paper you mentioned is simply garbage. Santalives, please remember the acronym GIGO ~ where sometimes you see the Garbage going In . . . and sometimes (e.g. with Coe et al., ) you see the Garbage coming Out.
# Oh, Santalives, I did come across a joke yesterday :
"My math teacher really hated negative numbers. Hated them. He would stop at nothing to avoid them."
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Philippe Chantreau at 10:14 AM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
"the content at WUWT seems to be better researched."
That is the funniest thing I have read in a while. People like me who have been following this non-debate for a long time know better.
WUWT is the site where the superbly absurd idea that excess CO2 fell back on Antarctica as carbonic snow was presented, and bitterly defended by the peanut gallery, even after multiple posts showing the phase diagram of CO2 and emphasizing the importance of partial pressure. Finally, someone could beat some sense into Anthony Watts' head, and made him realize that he had better take this off the site if he wanted any appearance of credibility. It is still accessible through the wayback machine, I believe.
The very premise of WUWT existence was the following: there is no warming, it is all an artefact of poorly designed temperature reporting stations, and the whole thing might even be intentional (insert ominous music).
This theory was successfully challenged on multiple occasions: first by a John V, who did a quick analysis of the high quality stations showing no significant difference with the major other datasets. Then, there was the BEST project, led by Richard Muller, who somehow lent credence to the concerns of some so-called "skeptics." At the time this effort was launched, Watts solemnly swore that he woud accept the conclusions. That enthusiasm evaporated (another feedback perhaps?) when the conclusions were released, confirming what the other datasets were already showing. Then, some NOAA researchers published a paper reaching, again, the same conclusions. Then, after much, much time, Watts himself participated in a research paper that essentially redid what the NOAA researchers had done, and reached the same conclusions again, but he pulled a "Spencer" by still making some vacuous argument that, in some way, he could still be right.
Over time, of course, the continued warming forced it to go silent about the very hypothesis that caused its existence in the first place, but there was never any shortage of new spots where other goal posts could be moved. It has now evolved and received help from people who managed to give it a better appearance. Nonetheless, it is still the same motivated reasoning machine that it always was.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:37 AM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
The "article in point" claims this: "In fact, the
climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 from 400ppm to
800ppm is calculated to be 0.45 Kelvin."However, there has already been over 1 degree of temperature increase compared to pre-industrial, with the concentration going from 290 ppm to 400 ppm and we are nowhere near equilibrium for 400, which would take some time.
I did not see in the paper a competing explanation for the measured increase. I also did not see why exactly they believe that all the rest of the litterature that concludes the equilibrium sensitivity for a doubling of pre-industrial concentration is around 3 degrees is wrong.
The argument against feedbacks is not very detailed and amounts to little more than hand-waving. It flies in the face of an extensive body of research into the glacial/interglacial transitions associated with Milankovitch cycles.
At first glance, I am not very impressed. Hopefully, more qualified commenters will look into it. I am also not sure about the publication where this piece appeared.
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Santalives at 08:53 AM on 27 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@electic. 18. I don't have a handle over ar wuwt. This is the only CC site I have ever signed up too. I was hoping it would provide a robust discussion of CC especially around the more controversial issues. I have read nearly everyone of the Climate Myth and many of the comments. They are less than convincing, not sure if it's the age of articles or the comments you read which start 15 years ago. ( useful feature would be able to sort comments by date).
For an article in point www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12. Which is discussed on today's wuwt, this is the sort I thing I thought sks would provide the alternative view on. But I suspect the comments will be to trash the authors, the publication or dismiss it on the grounds its settled science. It's the latter is probably the most frustrating. I watched the Rogan interviews with Nonien and the Dressler. Worth a watch and will let you decide who is more credible.
Moderator Response:[BL] Of course, the comments are sorted by date - from oldest to newest. That is the sequence in which the conversations take place. If this is a difficult concept for you to follow, then it is no surprise that you have such difficulty in following the science.
As for you claim that you have read nearly every one of the Climate Myths - that claim requires evidence, and you have provided none. Suitable evidence would be to add a comment on one of the articles you question - i.e., on a place where it is on topic.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:57 AM on 27 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
nigel, Ian and Bob:
My comments were meant in the context of the content of the video series. They are additional ways of exposing the lack of good reason in the Oregon Petition (referred to in the videos as the "Global Warming Petition Project"), and the potential harmful reasoning behind its creation.
The points you present are valid. However, they are not likely to be effective at spoiling the misleading marketing attempt of something like the Oregon Petition. Focusing on the lack of good reason in the claim is likely a better way to inoculate a person from being fooled in the future. It is also better than saying a version of "Believe me when I say that the Oregon Petition is incorrect".
I added the ethical angle of challenging a claim on purpose. It applies to this case. But, more importantly, the ethical perspective can effectively refute economic evaluations that conclude that significantly more than 1.5 C warming is Fair and Justified. The ethical perspective makes it easier to point out the ways that the economic evaluations fail to properly evaluate the case, and have the added bonus of raising questions about the motivations of the people who do the evaluations in those ways. They are attempting to excuse understandably harmful actions.
There have been many economic evaluations performed to compare the 'perceived impacts today if climate change harm is limited' vs. 'perceived future impacts of not limiting climate change harm'. There are many ethical faults in those evaluations, even in the one done by Stern that showed the benefits of aggressive action to limit climate change impacts. They discount the cost of harm done in the future. And they fail to fully evaluate the future harm that is discounted because the total harm is uncertain at this time. The Ethical Engineering approach to uncertainties about potential harm is to amplify what is able to be evaluated to account for the uncertainty. None of the economic evaluations did that, because they need to try to excuse known harm being done.
A more powerful critique of those evaluations is not the Stern approach of using a 'lower discount rate'. It is the fundamentals of Ethics which clearly indicate it is unacceptable to "Compare the Benefit some people obtain with the Harm done to Others and claim things to be OK as long as the situation is a Net-Zero". And the ethical evaluation goes further than that. The ethical evaluation does not allow the people hoping to benefit form compromising or participating in the evaluation of the acceptability of their beliefs and actions.
It can be very powerful to focus on the fundamental understanding that it is best for all actions to be governed by "Do no harm - Help develop lasting improvements for Others". That statement, that is the core of Ethical Engineering and the Sustainable Development Goals, can be very hard to argue against (but some people will still try, usually by attempting to make it appear that such thinking is Ivory Tower Elitist or Incredibly Naive or a fancy way of hiding the true intent of Authoritarian take-over. It isn't any of those things. But those appear to be the only paths of attack available).
I will close by saying that my perspective is clearly 'not the norm', not even among engineers or professors of ethics. But I will add that things are likely to only get worse, while misleadingly appearing to be improving, until the ethical focus becomes the norm among Leaders who are no longer harmfully compromised by the potential popularity or profitability of harmful misunderstandings.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:46 AM on 27 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
Note that the Oregon petition is on the SkS list of most-used climate myths.
https://skepticalscience.com/OISM-Petition-Project-intermediate.htm
Whenever such petitions are discussed, I also like to point out the National Center for Science Education's Project Steve. (Disclaimer: one of the Steves is there because I told him about it.)
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Ian Forrester at 12:52 PM on 26 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
The Oregon Petition was accompanied by 2 pieces of AGW denier malfeasance. Firstly was the cover letter from Frederick Seitz signed as past president of the National Academy of Sciences and secondly an AGW denier paper with Baliunas and Soon as co-authors formatted to make it look as if it was published in PNAS.
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nigelj at 08:30 AM on 26 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
Regarding the "Global Warming Petition Project". I believe it is also called the Oregon Petition. It has no credibility. For example many of the signatories are social scentists, and some are dead people and others fictitious people and very few are climate scientists. The wikipedia entry documents investigative studies on the so called petition.
And the petition statement: "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of [ghgs] is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating ..." Is just a strawman because scientists have not claimed such a thing could happen. So its a meangless statement. They have found the consequences of global warming will be very serious for humanity, due to increased severity of heatwaves and floods, other changes to weather extremes, sea level rise, and reduced agricultural output etc, etc.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:24 AM on 26 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
There is also an ethical angle for critically evaluating the "Global Warming Petition Project"
My understanding (open to improvement) is that ethics is about evaluating and governing things based on "Do no harm - Help develop lasting improvements for Others". The petiton includes statements that are clearly irrational and inconsistent from that ethical perspective.
The premise that "... proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment." is clearly ethically incorrect. In addition to the harm done to the existing environment by the global warming produced by human actions increasing the ghgs, the extraction, processing and burning of fossil fuels causes many other types of harm to people and the environment.
And, after that incorrect application of the concern for 'harm', the petition jumps to "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of [ghgs] is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating ...". Suddenly 'convincing evidence' (a matter of personal interpretation) is required and the harm has to be 'catastrophic' and has to occur in the 'foreseeable future'. None of those criteria were part of the earlier flawed position.
Anyone who accepts such an ethically compromised presentation probably has developed a powerful preference for ethically compromising many matters, including compromising the term 'ethics'. That reinforces the concern about signatories of the petition who have jobs related to 'public safety'.
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Evan at 23:34 PM on 25 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast can we slow down?
OPOF, agree with your comments. EV's are not the answer, just one tool. I do not push people to prematurely switch to EV's, especially if they are already driving small cars and not driving them that far. In our case we switched from driving a truck 25,000 miles/year to a Tesla. I figure we save 10 tons of CO2/year. Yes, the root cause is driving 25,000 miles/yr. We live in an area where driving is dangerous (lots of deer and trucks on 2-lane roads) and our choice was for more sheet metal to stay safe. Now I feel that we have a better option with Tesla's top safety ratings and 100 mpge.
One thing I love about owning an EV, any EV, is that it presents opportunities to talk about alternative transportation and renewables. I agree with you OPOF that EV's do not make sense everywhere, but we do need to keep pushing in the direction of hybrids/plug-in hybrids/EV's as hard and fast as we can.
And simply reducing the amount we drive is a winner as well, no matter what we drive!
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Eclectic at 16:48 PM on 25 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Santalives @17 : <" I joined this site to ask some questions and learn something."> [unquote]
Okay . . . that's why most people come to SkS. Reading through the [Home Page] sections : Newcomers Start Here and The Big Picture gets you off to a good start. And if you have some particular points of interest, then there's a huge list of Most Used Climate Myths with all sorts of good stuff (even too, in their comments columns ~ though often lengthy). [ by the way, the WattsUpWithThat blogsite is disorganized & useless for anyone wishing to learn . . . at any level ! ]
And you can enter into many comments columns [as you have] for more questions/discussions. But, Santalives, a Home Truth is that you yourself have been (repeatedly) doing the Hurt Innocence and Playing Tonto act. It fools nobody.
What card do you want me to play? ~Anything that is to do with climate science, which you seem to think is somehow faulty. I have asked you many times to play a card.
<" [I] don't have any knock out evidence about anything but I have learnt that neither side does, which is why we seem to have the never ending debate. "> [unquote]
~ In other words, Santalives, you don't know anything about the climate subject, and you are absolutely sure that nobody else does either. Bravo, amigo mio. Bravo. Sounds like you would fit in well at WUWT. Plenty of folks to see there ~ angry folks, who don't know and don't want to learn. [ WUWT is basically a site for venting anger, and sour grapes, and for stoking outrage. That sort of stuff keeps the click rate high ! ]
btw, Santalives, I am often observing at WUWT. Let me know what handle you have there, and I can pay closer attention. And keep an eye out for an old friend of mine there. Surname six letters, starting with Z. Usually he is just angry . . . but occasionally he states that he was abused & expelled from SkS. Unsurprisingly, that's a complete "porkie".
Best of luck, Santalives.
Moderator Response:[BL] Santalives will be subject to more aggressive moderation from here on in, and I would encourage the others to wait a bit and hold off on responding to him.
I will leave this post intact for now, but I would tell Santalives to follow the links suggested by Eclectic, as Santalives really, really needs to show evidence that he can read, understand, and learn from the material available here if he wants to continue to comment here.
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Santalives at 15:01 PM on 25 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
@Eclectic 10. I joined this site to try ask some questions and learn something. But can't say many responses are helpful or nice that for matter. Not sure what the story is with the moderator but fairly sure if I said 1/2 the things that have been directed at me I would get punted.
what card do you want me to play. don't have any knock out evidence about anything but I have learnt that neither side does, which is why we seem to have the never ending debate. But it's not actually a debate any more but each side (and there are more than 2) simply accuses the other of disinformation. I have to admit the content over at wuwt seems to better researched and presented then here. So if this is a propaganda war they seem to winning.
Moderator Response:[BL] Moderation complaints snipped.
You can start by reading the Comments Policy. In particular, you can look at what it says about moderation complaints:
All comments must be on topic. Comments are on topic if they draw attention to possible errors of fact or interpretation in the main article, of if they discuss the immediate implications of the facts discussed in the main article. However, general discussions of Global Warming not explicitly related to the details of the main article are always off topic. Moderation complaints are always off topic and will be deleted
Your general behavior here is been confrontational and unproductive. Many of your earlier claims, such as "the science isn't settled", are so common that this site has a list of such claims and why they do not hold water. The top 10 are listed on the upper left of every page you read here, and the entire list is linked under the "View All Arguments" text.
You have claimed you don't need "fact checkers" because you can decide for yourself. Nearly every post that you have made here provides lots of evidence that you do not have the skills to tell the difference between crap and actual climate science.
You have shown no evidence that you have actually read and understood any material provided on this site, and you have repeatedly failed to engage on actual science discussions that others have attempted to provide.
The fact that you look at this as starting with "two sides" shows that you come into this with baggage that perverts your ability to judge the science.
First, you need to un-learn much of what you think you know about "climate science", and then start learning again.
The simple fact is that none of your posts here have presented any new information or argument. The regulars here have seen it all before, and seeing it all again just gets tiresome.
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Santalives at 14:09 PM on 25 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
Is there a plan B? Given the geopolitical crises and the fact Russia and China generally ignore then IPCC, it is more then probable that the rate of emissions may increase in spite of climate change policies elsewhere. So what is the solution?
Moderator Response:[BL] Your rhetorical posturing by Just Asking Questions has worn thin. Unless you actually provide substantive commentary on the blog posts you are responding to, expect to see such questions deleted in their entirety.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:20 PM on 25 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast can we slow down?
Here is a recent CBC News item that presents the current day reality of relocating homes out of potential climate change impacted areas and areas already impacted by climate change.
"Cities are abandoning homes that will be destroyed by climate change"
Note that something similar happened in Calgary after the 2013 flood. The option for people to move out of flood risk zones and have the property remain undeveloped was the course of action. And because there was so much development at risk the offer was only available to a few properties 'most at risk'. And property owners who chose to rebuild rather than be bought out had to renovate to have no basement developments at risk of flood damage and main floors raised above established flood risk levels.
So, many developed areas in wealthy nations are already paying the price of the impacts due to previous generations refusing to give up on benefiting from harmful ways of living.
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blaisct at 09:33 AM on 25 February 2022It's albedo
I don't know what went wrong but I tested these; Online psychrometric chart and Tutorial
Please except my assumption and online calculator results in the summary of the three conditions, they are only examples.
Doing some further research on the clouds I found this site Cloud Ceiling Calc that had a correlation used by airplane pilots to predict cloud celling.Cloud ceiling (m) = (ground temp. – ground dew point)/2.6 *1000*0.3084
The base case is virgin land with lots of trees and vegetation, and is simulated by adding water to the online psychrometric chart calculator. The water added (22% of total water) is typical of data for rain forest type land.
I have added the cloud ceiling calculation to the summary to show that the LHAC cases increase the cloud ceiling no matter what the albedo is. The high albedo case is 20% higher albedo than the base case and much greater than your chart on W/m^2 vs time. The emphasis of the LHAC theory is that cities and cropland do not put as much water into the atmosphere as the orginal virgin land and this lack of water can reduce the cloud cover.
Summary of these cases:
Base case: 29.2’C and 70% RH with 23.3 dew point calculating 701 m ceiling
Low albedo: 33.4’C and 47% RH with 21.4 dew point calculating 1543 m ceiling
High albedo: 31.5’C and 55.5% RH with 21.4 dew point calculating 1171 m ceiling
Cloud ceiling and cloud cover should have a correlation. -
One Planet Only Forever at 09:00 AM on 25 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
Philippe @15,
I encounter a similar problem regarding the use of the term Ethical.
Seems that these days some people consider Ethical to mean "complying with 'their' interpretations of a set of rules, with or without a version of the word 'ethical' in the title of the rules".
People also claim that if something cannot be proven "conclusively to their satisaction" to have been done or harmful then it wasn't done or harmful. And when they are presented (confronted from their perspective) with evidence of harm done that they want to excuse, they will argue that their perception of the benefits obtained outweights 'their perception of the harm done'. That is the classic flawed utilitarian argument that the Greater Good is being achieved "as they see it". And everybody's perception is an equally valid alternative perception will be claimed if necessary. ANd the need to compromise understanding to suit everyone's perception becomes the 'pragmatic centrist' thing to do.
That leads to needing "alternative facts", or whatever else needs to be claimed to maintain the harmful misunderstandings that excuse the harmful actions they have developed a liking for.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:23 AM on 25 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
I noticed something else misleading and concerning about the "Global Warming Petition Project" that should raise doubts and concerns about it and its signatories and its developers and promoters.
The Petition wording is very questionable. It states: "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of [ghgs] is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating ...". The term "catastrophic" is misleading and open to interpretation. And the term "human release" could be interpreted as only being human breath, burps and farts. And what exactly is the "foreseeable future"?
The Petition also states that "... proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment." Anyone claiming to seriously believe that point has more questionable mental capability than the point that they lack direct climate science experience.
Post-secondary education is not required to see how questionable the posed Petition is. People should really be concerned about the potential that the people who signed such a misleading vague and incorrect claim as if it was a legitimate understanding could have responsible 'public safety related' roles in society. Perhaps the signatories should not be doing the jobs they are doing.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:58 AM on 25 February 2022Video series: The science of Cranky Uncle
This set of 3 videos is a great presentation of the problem of misinformation and effective solutions.
When dealing with a person claiming that 'global warming isn't happening because it is cold' I like to try to further than pointing out the fallacy of believing that since it is cold somewhere at some time during the year global warming is not occurring. I like to ask them if they are aware of how much 'average global surface temperature warming' has been measured in the past century (today vs the 1910s). The answer is that the warming has been about 1 degree C through the past 100 years. That leads to the question "Would 1 degree C warmer be expected to mean there would be no more cold days anywhere?"
The SkS Temperature Trend Calculator is very helpful if the person questions, or is unsure of, this point. It shows that:
from 1910 to 1920 the global data sets indicate an average of about -0.4C with variations ranging from -0.1C to -0.5C.
from 2010 to 2020 the global data sets indicate an average of about +0.75C with variations ranging from +1.1C to +0.6C.If they let me show them the SkS Temperature Trends, I also point out that the trend of temperatures during 1910 to 1920 is a significantly slower increase than 2010 to 2020. Which is consistent with the knowledge that human activity was causing global warming impacts at a slower rate 100 years ago. And the atmospheric CO2 levels support that understanding. And if they are willing to learn more I show them the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory website CO2 Animation ... and that can lead to more learning about ghgs.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:55 AM on 25 February 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
When I see "alternative facts," the reasoning of the one using the concept immediately falls under suspicion. How did that even become a concept? There are facts. Some are important, others not. They can be relevant, or not, are part of a context, but how can they be alternative? The bullshit wars have taken a toll...
