Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
Cook, J., Ellerton, P., & Kinkead, D. (2018). Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2), 024018. Link to PDF & Link to Supplement
The table below is inspired by the simplified supplement and may differ slightly from what is shown in the GIF. This is mostly due to make the text fit into the available space which made it necessary to reword some of it.
| 1 | Identify claim | Climate has changed naturally in the past, so current climate change is natural. |
| 2 | Argument structure | Premise 1: Climate has changed natural in the past. Premise 2: The climate is currently changing. Conclusion: Current climate change is naturally caused. |
| 3 | Inferential Intent |
Deduction |
| 4 | Validity | INVALID Conclusion doesn't follow from premise - just because nature caused climate change in the past doesn't mean it has to be causing it now. |
| 4a | Hidden premises | Premise 1: Climate has changed natural in the past. Premise 2: The climate is currently changing. Premise 3: Past drivers of climate change must be the same as current drivers. Conclusion: Current climate change is naturally caused. |
| 5 | Check premises | Premise 1 is true. Premise 2 is true. Premise 3 is false: single cause. Assumes that only one factor drives climate change. |
| 6 | Status of claim | FALSE The argument is made valid with an extra premise but the premise is false. |
| 7 | Summary of fallacies | Single cause: Assumes only natural processes cause climate change. Just because nature drove climate change in the past doesn't mean it must always be the driver. We are confident that human activity is driving current climate change because human fingerprints are observed all over our climate system. |
What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
Blog post with background information about the myth deconstructions: Myth deconstructions as animated gifs
To learn more about the fallacies used in the myth deconstructions: A history of FLICC: the 5 techniques of science denial
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