Tracking the 2C Limit - September 2015

The latest temperature anomaly coming out of GISS is, same as last month, 0.81°C. Adjusting that for our preindustrial baseline we show we're now at 1.062°C over preindustrial times.

The current El Niño continues to grow and is now predicted to have a 95% probability of continuing into the Spring of 2016. 

Ironically, the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) satellite temperature data is still showing little sign of warming now 5 months into the warming you see above in the equatorial upper-ocean anomaly. I've asked other more knowledgeable folks about this and everyone is in agreement this is probably about right, but we should start seeing the satellite data begin spiking in the next month or so. With the Pacific "blob" off the coast of California, I would guess much more heat is entering the atmosphere than even during the 1998 el Nino, as such we would expect a similar or greater spike in the satellite data. If not, something must be amiss.

Far more dramatic this month are the figures coming out of the Japanese Meteorological Agency (below). September shows a sharp rise in surface temperature for the month. 

It's going to be very interesting to watch how the next few months pan out with all the various surface station and satellite datasets.  

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Posted by Rob Honeycutt on Friday, 23 October, 2015

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