Tracking the 2C Limit - October 2015

This month GISS data hit a new astounding anomaly of 1.04C over their 1951-1980 baseline period. The previous record was 0.97C back in 2007. It's possible this figure may get adjusted downward slightly in coming months, but suffice to say this is a big jump in surface temperature. 

Clearly this jump is by-and-large a function of the current el Nino churning away in the Pacific, but bear in mind, the surface temperature response to the el Nino is just getting started. There's generally a 4 to 6 month delay between the el Nino and surface temperature. Given that, we should continue to see sharply increasing surface temperatures through most of the early part of 2016 before things start to settle back again.

Dueling Ninos

I also recently started tracking the Ocean Nino Index (ONI) comparing the current el Nino to the 1997/98 el Nino, and here's what I got.

Note that each ONI data point is a three month average. The most recent ONI value is 1.7 but the most recent weekly Nino data hit an all-time record of 3.0. So, here again we should expect to see a continuing rise in both the ONI values and surface temperature.

Satellite Data

Once again, the satellite data isn't quite picking up the warming coming from this el Nino yet. The satellite data tends to lag the surface temperature data a bit. In the next couple of months we should expect to see a sizable jump in that data as well.

CFSv2 Forecast Model

As I've been following the current el Nino I keep noticing the CFSv2 Nino3.4 forecast model. I am not enough of an expert to say whether or not this is actually the case, but it looks broken at this point. Perhaps others will be able to comment more authoritatively than I can.

This same "V" shaped peak has been present in this model for a couple of months now. 

An Aside...

Completely unrelated to the rest of this post, I just want to send out my own condolences to all the families affected by the horrendous Paris attacks. We all stand with you.

Vive la France!

Posted by Rob Honeycutt on Monday, 23 November, 2015

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