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Scientists caution that a four- or eight-year delay in reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lead to dangerously higher global temperatures and long-term adverse impacts. (See article and Q&A with scientist Ben Sanderson)
Precisely how the incoming Trump administration will deal with climate change remains uncertain. But Donald Trump’s statements during the campaign and since his election – and also his Cabinet nominations and his immediately purging the whitehouse.gov website of climate science information – signal, at a minimum, that he will not make addressing climate change a priority.
And that the administration likely will move to shelve federal government mitigation efforts.
Throughout his campaign and during the transition leading up to his January 20th inauguration, Trump frequently had been dismissive of the science and bullish on coal and fossil fuels generally. Proponents for aggressive action and many in the climate science research community have expressed increasing concerns.
In recent months, two climate modelers – Ben Sanderson, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colorado, and Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich, Switzerland – examined how Trump administration inaction and actions might influence future planetary warming. They concluded that a four- or eight-year delay in mitigation could lead to substantially exceeding global temperature limits for dangerous levels of emissions and concentrations, perhaps indefinitely.
Two scientists' concerns over years of climate inaction by Daniel Grossman & Bud Ward, Yale Climate Communications, Jan 21, 2017
“We have clearly passed 1 degree above preindustrial temperatures,” and likely won’t go below it without a major volcanic eruption (which tends to cool global temperatures), Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said.
When we might actually reach 1.5°C isn’t clear, Schmidt said, and depends both on how quickly greenhouse gases are emitted — which depends on how quickly countries act to limit their emissions — and just how much additional carbon dioxide can be emitted before the 1.5°C goal is breached, which is still somewhat uncertain.
“We’re closer than we would like to be,” he said.
With El Niño gone, and a weak La Niña to start off 2017, this year isn’t likely to continue the streak and best 2016, climate scientists say. But even if 2017 is cooler than 2016, it will only be a very slight dip compared to the long-term warming trend — in fact, the U.K. Met Office expects that 2017 will still rank among the hottest years on record.
“It’s still going to be a top 5 year in our analysis. I’m pretty confident about that,” Schmidt said.
2016 Officially Declared Hottest Year on Record by Andrea Thompson, ClimateCentral, Jan 18, 2017
The running average of global temperatures throughout 2016 compared to recent years.
2016 Officially Declared Hottest Year on Record by Andrea Thompson, ClimateCentral, Jan 18, 2017
Alliance for Climate Education (ACE)
ACE's mission is to educate young people on the science of climate change and empower them to take action. By empowering youth to take action within a frame of justice and optimism, we are shifting the national discourse on climate in ways that are proven to affect public opinion and policy.
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Jeff Goodell on Miami Flooding by Peter Scinclair, Climate Crock of the Week, Jan 21, 2017
Signs of the Times by Peter Scinclair, Climate Crock of the Week, Jan 22, 2017
Climate Feedback asked its network of scientists to review the article, U.S. scientists officially declare 2016 the hottest year on record. That makes three in a row. by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Jan 18, 2017
Five scientists analyzed the article and estimated its overall scientific credibility to be ‘high’.
Click here to access the detailed review.
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Posted by John Hartz on Sunday, 22 January, 2017
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