New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Diurnal Cycle Variability of Surface Temperature Inferred from AIRS data

" is found that the DTR of the surface (skin) temperature over the global Earth has a temporal small positive trend in the decade of the AIRS measurements indicating that the day temperatures grew slightly more rapidly than the night temperatures. A possible cause of the observed DTR increase is a decrease of the low cloud fraction at nighttime found for the same time period from the AIRS retrievals."

2. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model

"We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice–albedo feedback predominates the surface–height–temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength."

3. Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing

"... all of the poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and Hadley cell edge occurs in a fast response within 5 to 10 years of the forcing, during which less than half of the expected equilibrium warming is realized. Compared with this fast response, the slow response over subsequent decades to centuries features stronger polar amplification (especially in the Antarctic), enhanced warming in the Southern Ocean, an El Niño-like pattern of tropical Pacific warming, and weaker land-sea contrast."

4. Reducing model structural uncertainty in climate model projections - A rank-based model combination approach

5. Soil greenhouse gas fluxes, environmental controls and the partitioning of N2O sources in UK natural and semi-natural land use types

6. Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate

7. Sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in boreal forest carbon pools in northeastern China: Effects of nitrogen deposition

8. Heatwaves in China: definitions, leading patterns and connections to large-scale atmospheric circulation and SSTs

9. Seasonal sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere jet-streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal timescales

10. Variability in above- and belowground carbon stocks in a Siberian larch watershed

11. The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes over South America

12. Rainfall along the coast of Peru during strong El Niño events

13. Relict mountain permafrost area (Loess Plateau, China) exhibits high ecosystem respiration rates and accelerating rates in response to warming

14. Multi-decadal evolution characteristics of global surface temperature anomaly data shown by observation and CMIP5 models

15. Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States

16. A multi-scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009

17. Potential to constrain projections of hot temperature extremes

18. Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

19. Detection of intraseasonal large-scale heat waves: Characteristics and historical trends during the Sahelian Spring

20. A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America

21. Marine air penetration in California's Central Valley: Meteorological drivers and the impact of climate change

22. How robust is the weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation in CMIP5 idealized transient climate simulations?

23. Response of water use efficiency to summer drought in a boreal Scots pine forest in Finland

24. Sea ice assimilation into a coupled ocean–sea ice model using its adjoint

25. Numerical simulations to quantify the diurnal contrast in local climate trend induced by desert urbanization

26. Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall

27. Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change impacts

28. Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

"We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species."

29. Projected reductions in climatic suitability for vulnerable British birds

"In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear."

30. Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades


• Maximum temperatures have increased more than minimum temperatures.
• Spring phenology has advanced at a faster rate than the date of the last frost.
• The risk of frost injury to trees has increased at higher elevations in Switzerland.
• The risk of frost injury to trees has remained unchanged at lower elevations.
• Planting summer-adapted trees should be carefully considered regarding frost risk."

31. Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany

"For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century."

32. Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean

"This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014–2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences."

33. A decline in primary production in the North Sea over twenty-five years, associated with reductions in zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment

"This shows that recent decades have seen a significant decline in primary production in the North Sea. Moreover, primary production differs in magnitude between six hydrodynamic regions within the North Sea. Sea surface warming and reduced riverine nutrient inputs are found to be likely contributors to the declining levels of primary production." ... "Given positive (bottom-up) associations between primary production, zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment, this study provides strong evidence that if the decline in primary production continues, knock-on effects upon the productivity of fisheries are to be expected unless these fisheries are managed effectively and cautiously."

34. Radial growth and physiological response of coniferous trees to Arctic amplification

"Tree radial growth decreased over the past 52 years in central eastern Siberia with the higher rate of summer temperature increase than other regions, as indicated by the negative correlation between radial growth and summer temperature, but increased in northern Europe and Canada."

35. Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology

36. A conceptual model for climatic teleconnection signal control on groundwater variability in the UK and Europe

37. Extreme flows and water availability of the Brahmaputra River under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios

38. Biome-specific climatic space defined by temperature and precipitation predictability

39. Interannual variability of ecosystem carbon exchange: From observation to prediction

40. Ice ages leave genetic diversity ‘hotspots’ in Europe but not in Eastern North America

41. Detecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks

42. Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

43. The Importance of Freshwater to Spatial Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the Gulf of Alaska

44. Bottom Water Acidification and Warming on the Western Eurasian Arctic Shelves: Dynamical Downscaling Projections

45. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

46. Subjective measures of climate resilience: What is the added value for policy and programming?

47. Dry groundwater wells in the western United States

48. Temporal photoperiod sensitivity and forcing requirements for budburst in temperate tree seedlings

49. Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

50. Farmers’ perception on agro-ecological implications of climate change in the Middle-Mountains of Nepal: a case of Lumle Village, Kaski

51. Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

52. Interannual and seasonal patterns of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes from ecotonal and thermokarst-impacted ecosystems on carbon-rich permafrost soils in northeastern Siberia

53. Changes in relative fit of human heat stress indices to cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal hospitalizations across five Australian urban populations

54. Snowmelt timing, phenology, and growing season length in conifer forests of Crater Lake National Park, USA

Climate change mitigation

55. Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards

"RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities."

56. U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Reasons, impacts, and China’s response

"China faces mounting pressure from the international community to assume global climate leadership after the U.S. withdraws, and this article proposes that China should reach the high ends of its domestic climate targets under the current Nationally Determined Contributions; internationally, China should facilitate the rebuilding of shared climate leadership, replacing the G2 with C5. Meanwhile, China needs to keep the U.S. engaged in climate cooperation."

57. The impacts of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost of China, EU, and Japan under the constraints of the global carbon emission space

"...the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase the U.S. carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU, and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be increased."

58. Citizens show strong support for climate policy, but are they also willing to pay?

"The findings reveal that WTP [willingness to pay] is much lower than WTS [willingness to support]." (When asking about forest conservation in Brazil.)

59. Carbon futures: a valiant attempt to bring scientific order from modeling chaos

60. Renewable natural gas in California: An assessment of the technical and economic potential

61. The sociological imagination in a time of climate change

Other papers

62. The Plio-Pleistocene climatic evolution as a consequence of orbital forcing on the carbon cycle

63. Spatially variable geothermal heat flux in West Antarctica: evidence and implications

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on Friday, 6 October, 2017

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