New research, November 27 - December 3, 2017

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Figure is from paper #38.

Climate change impacts

1. Phenotypic plasticity and climate change: can polar bears respond to longer Arctic summers with an adaptive fast?

"We found that bears on shore maintained lipid and protein stores by scavenging on bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from human harvest, while those that followed the retreating sea ice beyond the continental shelf were food deprived. They had low ratios of blood urea to creatinine (U:C), normally associated with adaptive fasting. However, they also exhibited low albumin and glucose (indicative of protein loss) and elevated alanine aminotransferase and ghrelin (which fall during adaptive fasting). Thus, the ~ 70% of the SBS subpopulation that spends summer on the ice experiences more of a regular, rather than adaptive, fast. This fast will lengthen as summer ice declines. The resulting protein loss prior to winter could be a mechanism driving the reported correlation between summer ice and polar bear reproduction and survival in the SBS."

2. Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

"We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of €3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors."

3. Changes of heating and cooling degree-days in Europe from 1981 to 2100

"For both RCPs, all simulations project a significant decrease for HDD, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia, and an increase of CDD which peaks over the Mediterranean region and the Balkans. Overall, degree-day trends do not show remarkable differences if population weighting is applied. If a constant population scenario is considered, the decrease in HDD will outbalance the increase in CDD in the 21st century over most of Europe. Thus the related energy demand (expressed as Energy Degree-days, EDD) is expected to decrease. If, however, population projections over the 21st century are included in the calculations, it is shown that despite the persisting warming, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic countries, Great Britain, Ireland, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus, resulting in an overall increase in EDD over Europe."

4. Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA

"By midcentury, we predict yield reduction from heat stress will reduce cotton and maize yields by 37 and 27%, respectively, compared to potential yield. Our results contradict the notion that the warmest counties cultivating field crops will be the most impacted. Rather, future temperature, total crop area and crop sensitivity contribute to more complex county-level impacts."

5. Species interactions can shift the response of a maerl bed community to ocean acidification and warming

"Our results indicate that the response of marine communities to climate change will depend on the direct effects on species physiology and the indirect effects due to shifts in species interactions."

6. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extra-tropical ecosystems

"Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations, and atmospheric CO2 concentration and δ13C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71° N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extra-tropical (>23oN) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2±0.6 days decade−1 in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0±0.8 days decade−1) and end (1.5±1.0 days decade−1) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4±0.8 days decade−1), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8±1.8% for 1982−2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO2 concentration and δ13C data, is advancing by 2.5±2.6 and 4.3±2.9 days decade−1, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p < 0.01) with the earlier onset of the start of growing season and POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50oN) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget."

7. Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach

8. Social learning as an adaptive measure to prepare for climate change impacts on water provision in Peru

9. Cultural adaptation to climate change among indigenous people of South India

10. Upstream with a shovel or downstream with a water right? Irrigation in a changing climate

11. A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures: a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe

12. Patterns and drivers of biodiversity–stability relationships under climate extremes

13. Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration

14. Stronger ecosystem carbon sequestration potential of mangrove wetlands with respect to terrestrial forests in subtropical China

15. New insights on plant phenological response to temperature revealed from long-term widespread observations in China

16. Can mesophotic reefs replenish shallow reefs? Reduced coral reproductive performance casts a doubt

17. Individual and interactive effects of warming and CO2 on Pseudo-nitzschia subcurvata and Phaeocystis antarctica, two dominant phytoplankton from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

18. The short-term combined effects of temperature and organic matter enrichment on permeable coral reef carbonate sediment metabolism and dissolution

19. Multi-model impacts of climate change on pollution transport from global emission source regions

20. Small-holder farmers’ climate change adaptation practices in the Upper East Region of Ghana

Climate change mitigation

21. Drivers of stagnating global carbon intensity of electricity and the way forward

"It finds that global ACI barely improved since 1990 because of a shift in electricity production from developed to developing countries with higher ACIs. This geographical shift offset consistent improvements to power generation efficiency worldwide and is likely to persist in the future. To keep the 2 °C target realisable, it is imperative to enhance international cooperation to lower the ACIs of emerging economies and deepen the penetration of renewables, which have thus far performed below expectations."

22. The spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate opinions at state and local scales

"We find substantial geographic variation in Republican climate opinions across states and congressional districts. While Democratic party members consistently think human-caused global warming is happening and support climate policy reforms, the intensity of their climate beliefs also varies spatially at state and local scales."

23. How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions?

"Economic growth/renewable electricity consumption relation increases CO2 emissions."

24. Raising awareness of climate change causes? Cross-national evidence for the normalization of societal risk perception of climate change

25. Deforestation may increase soil carbon but it is unlikely to be continuous or unlimited

26. China's rise: Challenging the North-South technology transfer paradigm for climate change mitigation and low carbon energy

27. An assessment of U.S. rare earth availability for supporting U.S. wind energy growth targets

28. Politics in the U.S. energy transition: Case studies of solar, wind, biofuels and electric vehicles policy

29. The impact of urbanisation on energy consumption: A 30-year review in China

30. Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index in the context of climate change in Chile

31. Investigating driving forces of aggregate carbon intensity of electricity generation in China

32. Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China

33. The cost of decarbonizing the Canadian electricity system

34. Vulnerable yet relevant: the two dimensions of climate-related financial disclosure

35. Scanning agroforestry-based solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Europe

Climate change

36. Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation

"The Earth has warmed over the past century. The warming rate (amount of warming over a given period) varies in time and space. Observations show a recent increase in global mean warming rate, which is initially maintained in model projections, but which diverges substantially in future depending on the emissions scenario followed. Scenarios that stabilize forcing lead to much lower warming rates, as the rate depends on the change in forcing, not the amount. Warming rates vary spatially across the planet, but most areas show a shift toward higher warming rates in recent decades. The areal distribution of warming rates is also changing shape to include a longer tail in recent decades. Some areas of the planet are already experiencing extreme warming rates of about 1 °C/decade. The fat tail in areal distribution of warming rates is pronounced in model runs when the forcing and global mean warming rate is increasing, and indicates a climate state more prone to regime transitions. The area-proportion of the Earth displaying warming/cooling trends is shown to be directly related to the global mean warming rate, especially for trends of length 15 years and longer. Since the global mean warming rate depends on the forcing rate, the proportion of warming/cooling trend areas in future also depends critically on the choice of future forcing scenario."

37. The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal evolution of Climate Sensitivity

"The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully-coupled simulation."

38. Global precipitation trends across spatial scales using satellite observations

"We show that warm climate regions exhibit decreasing precipitation trends while arid and polar climate regions show increasing trends. At the country scale, precipitation seems to have increased in 96 countries, and decreased in 104."

39. Unidirectional trends in daily rainfall extremes of Iraq

"The obtained results confirmed the increase in dry spells and droughts in the region."

40. The drivers of variability in UK extreme rainfall

41. Snow cover and vegetation-induced decrease in global albedo from 2002 to 2016

42. Local and external moisture sources for the Arctic warming over the Barents-Kara Seas

43. Tornado climatology of China

44. Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

45. Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using surface relative humidity and temperature

46. Intercomparison of stratospheric temperature profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer with other techniques

47. A new method for temperature spatial interpolation based on sparse historical stations

48. Causes of the Antarctic region record high temperature at Signy Island, 30th January 1982

49. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Synoptics of Extreme Wet-Bulb Temperature in the Contiguous United States

50. Climate change projections over China using regional climate models forced by two CMIP5 global models. Part I: evaluation of historical simulations

51. Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate of Germany

52. Modelling the occurrence of heat waves in maximum and minimum temperatures over Spain and projections for the period 2031-60

53. The climate of the European region during the 20th and 21st centuries according to Feddema

54. Spatiotemporal patterns of the fossil-fuel CO2 signal in central Europe: results from a high-resolution atmospheric transport model

55. Some Pitfalls in Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate

56. Atlantic Water advection vs. glacier dynamics in northern Spitsbergen since early deglaciation

57. Supraglacial ponds regulate runoff from Himalayan debris-covered glaciers

58. Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the winter Arctic Oscillation on summer sea ice extent

59. Monte-Carlo Study of UAV-Measurable Albedo Over Arctic Sea Ice

60. Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

61. Winter Sentinel-1 backscatter as a predictor of spring Arctic sea ice melt pond fraction

62. On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic

63. Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

64. Effects of projected changes in wind, atmospheric temperature, and freshwater inflow on the Ross Sea

65. An energetic perspective on United States tropical cyclone landfall droughts

Other papers

66. The relationship between Neogene dinoflagellate cysts and global climate dynamics

"The increase in the percentage of cold water species of dinoflagellate cysts recorded worldwide from the Early and Middle Miocene to the Late Pliocene indicates a global scale forcing agent on Neogene climate such as CO2."

67. Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

68. Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Decadal to Centennial Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice Extent during the Last Millennium and on Initiation of the Little Ice Age

69. Tune in on 11.57?µHz and listen to primary production

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on Tuesday, 5 December, 2017

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