New research, January 1-7, 2018

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #20.

Climate change

1. Climate Change on Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: Results From a Regional Downscaled Ocean and Sea-Ice Model Under an A1B Forcing Scenario 2011–2069

"Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11?m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening."

2. Quantifying the effects of historical land cover conversion uncertainty on global carbon and climate estimates

Temperature and precipitation

3. A Comparative Study of Atmospheric Moisture Recycling Rate Between Observations and Models

4. Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015

5. The land and its climate knows no transition, no middle ground, everywhere too much or too little: a documentary-based climate chronology for central Namibia, 1845–1900

Extreme events

6. Intra-annual variability of heat wave episodes over the east coast of India

7. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

8. Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios

9. Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

"The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones."

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

10. Multi-model evidence for an atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections

11. Large uncertainty in the relative rates of dynamical and hydrological tropical expansion

Climate forcings

12. Trends and Variability of Surface Solar Radiation in Europe based on Surface- and Satellite-based Data Records

"The results show an overall brightening period since the 1980's onwards (comprised between 1.9 and 2.4 W/m2/decade), with substantial decadal and spatial variability. The strongest brightening is found in Easter Europe in spring. An exception is found for Northern and Southern Europe, where the trends shown by the station data are not completely reproduced by satellite data, especially in summer in Southern Europe. We conclude that the major part of the observed trends in surface solar radiation in Europe is caused by changes in clouds and that remaining differences between the satellite- and the station-based data might be connected to changes in the direct aerosol effect and in snow cover."

13. Effects of model resolution and parameterizations on the simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols


14. Late summer frazil ice-associated algal blooms around Antarctica

15. Spring snow-albedo feedback analysis over the Third Pole: results from satellite observation and CMIP5 model simulations

16. Heterogeneous decadal glacier downwasting at the Mt. Everest (Qomolangma) from 2000 to ~ 2012 based on multi-baseline bistatic SAR interferometry

17. Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Carbon cycle

18. Carbon stocks and losses to deforestation in protected areas in Brazilian Amazonia

"In 2014, a total of 33.4 Pg C or 57.0% of all carbon stored in Legal Amazonia was held in protected areas and 32.7 Pg C or 58.5% of all the carbon stored in the Amazonia biome was held in protected areas. By 2014, carbon lost due to clearing in protected areas in Legal Amazonia and the Amazonia biome totaled, respectively, 0.787 (or 2.3%) and 0.702 (or 2.1%) Pg C if one assumes that previously each protected area was entirely covered by native vegetation."

19. Historical carbon fluxes in the expanding deforestation frontier of Southern Brazilian Amazonia (1985–2012)

"We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO2 between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO2 year−1) and 959.8 TgCO2 over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO2 year−1). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004."

20. Inorganic carbon and water masses in the Irminger Sea since 1991

21. The extent and predictability of the biodiversity–carbon correlation

22. Trends and variability of global fire emissions due to historical anthropogenic activities

23. Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

Climate change impacts

Impacts to mankind

24. What helps people recover from floods? Insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in Germany

"We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions)."

25. ENSO and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in Association with Canadian Wheat Yield Variability

26. Is the participatory formulation of policy strategies worth the effort? The case of climate change adaptation in Austria

27. Climate change can reduce shrimp catches in equatorial Brazil

"Considering that both temperature and precipitation were important determinants of shrimp productivity, we estimated how such productivity would be affected by climate change. Our results suggest that these fisheries could collapse in a warmer and drier future, which is a possible scenario for the region."

28. The risk of tardive frost damage in French vineyards in a changing climate

"The risk of tardive frost will likely increase in the continental regions of France."

29. Household and community responses to impacts of climate change in the rural hills of Nepal

30. Mind the gap: The role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change

Impacts to nature

31. Basal resistance enhances warming tolerance of alien over indigenous species across latitude

"Using springtails as an exemplar taxon, widely known to have species-specific effects on below- and aboveground dynamics, we show that across a wide latitudinal span (16–54°S), alien species have greater ability to tolerate climate change-associated warming than do their indigenous counterparts. The consequences of such consistent differences are profound given globally significant invasions of soil systems by springtails."

32. Tree cover shows strong sensitivity to precipitation variability across the global tropics

33. The dark side of Lepidoptera: Colour lightness of geometrid moths decreases with increasing latitude

34. Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

35. A mineralogical record of ocean change: Decadal and centennial patterns in the California mussel

"Shell mineralogy has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, despite evidence for consistent mineral structure in the California mussel, Mytilus californianus, over the prior 2500 years. We present evidence for increased disorder in the calcium carbonate shells of mussels and greater variability between individuals. These changes in the last decade contrast markedly from a background of consistent shell mineralogy for centuries."

36. What to eat in a warming world: do increased temperatures necessitate hazardous duty pay?

37. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change

"However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species."

38. The impact of sea ice conditions on breeding decisions is modulated by body condition in an arctic partial capital breeder

39. Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

Climate change mitigation

40. Analysis of 100% renewable energy for Iran in 2030: integrating solar PV, wind energy and storage

"A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option."

41. The role of regulatory learning in energy transition: The case of solar PV in Brazil

42. Distributions of carbon pricing on extraction, combustion and consumption of fossil fuels in the global supply-chain

43. Black carbon emissions from biomass and coal in rural China

44. China’s national emissions trading scheme: integrating cap, coverage and allocation

45. Emission factors of greenhouse gases from layer and broiler barns in Cameroon

46. Smart home technologies in everyday life: do they address key energy challenges in households?

"There is a risk that SHTs will lead more energy intensive ways of life."

47. Is coal extension a sensible option for energy planning? A combined energy systems modelling and life cycle assessment approach

"When compared to the reference scenario, the results show that coal extension could favour the penetration of renewables in the long term. Notwithstanding, this would come at the expense of undesirable increases in climate change and human health impacts. Consequently, the implementation of the sustainability dimension in energy plans could avoid a “coal conundrum” situation in Spain."

48. Willingness to know and talk: Citizen attitude toward energy and environmental policy deliberation in post-Fukushima Japan

49. A discussion on China's vehicle fuel policy: Based on the development route optimization of refining industry

50. The impacts of economic structure on China’s carbon dioxide emissions: an analysis with reference to other East Asian economies

51. Complexity ethics and UNFCCC practices for 1.5 °C climate change

52. Gendered discourse about climate change policies

53. Factors affecting energy-saving behaviours and energy efficiency investments in British households

54. Comparative Well-to-Tank energy use and greenhouse gas assessment of natural gas as a transportation fuel in Pakistan

"The results indicate that petroleum fuel have WtT efficiencies in the range of 82–86% while WtT efficiencies of natural gas based fuels are in the range of 75–88%. The results reveals that WtT GHG emission associated with CNG produced from indigenous natural gas sources are 16% and 21% higher than the gasoline and diesel fuel produced from ingenious crude oil, respectively. As compared to other countries, the WtT GHG emissions results of Pakistani petroleum and natural gas based fuels are 10% and 29 higher than those of the Europe mainly due to higher methane emission."

55. Annual methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddies and inland fish aquaculture wetlands in southeast China

56. Nitrogen pollution: a key building block for addressing climate change

57. ‘Raising the temperature’: the arts in a warming planet

58. Environmental effects of Arctic oil spills and spill response technologies, introduction to a 5 year joint industry effort

59. Interpreting Images of Fracking: How Visual Frames and Standing Attitudes Shape Perceptions of Environmental Risk and Economic Benefit

60. Science Literacy or Value Predisposition? A Meta-Analysis of Factors Predicting Public Perceptions of Benefits, Risks, and Acceptance of Nuclear Energy

61. How do landowners learn about high-volume hydraulic fracturing? A survey of Eastern Ohio landowners in active or proposed drilling units

Other papers

62. Decline in Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Lower Stratospheric Chlorine Determined From Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

63. Effects of undetected data quality issues on climatological analyses

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on Friday, 12 January, 2018

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