New research, April 2-8, 2018

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts


1. Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming (open access)

"Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge."

2. Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran’s population health

3. Heat stress and chickens: climate risk effects on rural poultry farming in low-income countries

"Although these birds are generally known to be hardy, it appears that some losses experienced in rural poultry farming may be a direct or indirect consequence of climate-related stresses."

4. Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: Implications for health and agriculture (open access)

"Applying published heat-health relationships to projected changes in temperature shows that increases in mortality due to high temperatures for all cities examined would occur if projected future climates occurred today." ... "Assuming no adaptation or acclimatisation, published statistical relationships between drought and national wheat yield suggest that national yields will have a less than one quarter chance of exceeding the annual historical average under far future precipitation change (excluding impacts of future temperature change and CO2 fertilization)."

5. Rainfed maize yield response to management and climate covariability at large spatial scales

6. The impact of climate warming and crop management on phenology of sunflower-based cropping systems in Punjab, Pakistan

7. Identifying key meteorological factors to yield variation of potato and the optimal planting date in the agro-pastoral ecotone in North China

8. Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia (open access)

9. Determinants in the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from rainfed-dependent smallholder farmers in north-central Ethiopia (Wolekasub-basin)

10. Vulnerability of communities to climate change: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to an environmentally sensitive region of China

11. Mapping urban residents’ vulnerability to heat in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

12. The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change

13. Increasing the effectiveness of environmental decision support systems: lessons from climate change adaptation projects in Canada and Australia

14. Spatial analysis of the benefits and burdens of ecological focus areas for water-related ecosystem services vulnerable to climate change in Europe (open access)

15. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

16. American archives and climate change: risks and adaptation (open access)

"Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1,232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90%) when risk factors are combined."

17. Minimizing irrigation water demand: An evaluation of shifting planting dates in Sri Lanka

18. Damage to buildings and structures due to recent devastating wind hazards in East Asia

19. A media framing analysis of urban flooding in Nigeria: current narratives and implications for policy (open access)

20. The effect of geographical and climatic properties on grass pollen and Phl p 5 allergen release

21. Mainstreaming climate adaptation: taking stock about “what works” from empirical research worldwide (open access)

22. Unpacking local impacts of climate change: learning with a coastal community in Central Vietnam

23. A framework for pluvial flood risk assessment in Alexandria considering the coping capacity

24. Simulating the dynamics of individual adaptation to floods

25. A global network for operational flood risk reduction (open access)

26. Climate variability, change and potential impacts on tourism: Evidence from the Zambian side of the Victoria Falls

27. Provision of Climate Services for Agriculture: Public and Private Pathways to Farm Decision-making (open access)


28. Soil microbial biomass, activity and community composition along altitudinal gradients in the High Arctic (Billefjorden, Svalbard) (open access)

29. Drivers of spatial variability in greendown within an oak-hickory forest landscape

30. Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change—A review

31. Elevated CO2 and water addition enhance nitrogen turnover in grassland plants with implications for temporal stability

32. Herbivory and eutrophication mediate grassland plant nutrient responses across a global climatic gradient (open access)

33. Atmospheric and geogenic CO2 within the crown and root of spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) growing in a mofette area

34. Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change—A review

35. Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long‐term wild host–pathogen association

"We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long‐term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April‐November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host–pathogen association."

36. Do pelagic grazers benefit from sea ice? Insights from the Antarctic sea ice proxy IPSO25 (open access)

37. Decalcification and survival of benthic foraminifera under the combined impacts of varying pH and salinity

38. Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests

39. Heat shock influences the fatty acid composition of the muscle of the Antarctic fish Trematomus bernacchii

40. Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

41. Macrorefugia for North American trees and songbirds: Climatic limiting factors and multi‐scale topographic influences

42. Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

43. Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes

44. Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies

45. Plant functional diversity affects climate–vegetation interaction (open access)

46. Water availability as driver of birch mortality in Hustai National Park, Mongolia

Climate change mitigation

47. Global patterns of national climate policies: Analyzing 171 country portfolios on climate policy integration

48. Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments

49. The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal

Emission reductions

50. Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars (open access)

"Furthermore, in the presence of defeat devices, the climatic advantage of ‘clean diesel’ cars over gasoline cars, in terms of global-mean temperature change, is in our view not necessarily the case."

51. Digging deeper: A holistic perspective of factors affecting soil organic carbon sequestration in agroecosystems

52. Decarbonisation perspectives for the Polish economy

53. Spatial effect of factors affecting household CO2emissions at the provincial level in China: a geographically weighted regression model

54. Why are rented dwellings less energy-efficient? Evidence from a representative sample of the U.S. housing stock

55. E-bike trials' potential to promote sustained changes in car owners mobility habits (open access)

Energy production

56. The global overlap of bioenergy and carbon sequestration potential (open access)

57. Climate-wise choices in a world of oil abundance

58. Wind farm acceptance for sale? Evidence from the Danish wind farm co-ownership scheme

59. Tracking the transition to renewable electricity in remote indigenous communities in Canada

Climate change communication

60. Illuminating the link between perceived threat and control over climate change: the role of attributions for causation and mitigation

61. Public perceptions of energy policies: Predicting support, opposition, and nonsubstantive responses

Climate change

62. What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us About Their Climate Sensitivity?

63. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model (open access)

Temperature and precipitation 

64. The Effect of Hydrometeors on MSU/AMSU Temperature Observations over the Tropical Ocean

"It is shown that correcting the TMT or TLT monthly anomalies by removing the hydrometeor contamination does not significantly influence estimates of tropical mean temperature trends but it could affect the pattern of temperature trend over the tropical oceans."

65. Climatology and trends of the Euro‐Mediterranean thermal bioclimate

66. Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

67. Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies (open access)

68. Implications of a decrease in the precipitation area for the past and the future (open access)

69. Investigating the trend of average changes of annual temperatures in Iran

Extreme events

70. Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather (open access)

71. Statistics of multi‐year droughts from the method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation

72. Multi-model event attribution of the summer 2013 heat wave in Korea (open access)

73. Assessment of drought during corn growing season in Northeast China

74. Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble (open access)

"We apply a stationary generalized extreme value analysis to the annual maxima of the three day average of the daily maximum surface air temperature, finding that long period return values have been increased by human activities between 1 and 3 °C over most land areas."

Forcings and feedbacks

75. Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor (open access)

76. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

77. Aerosol Absorption: Progress Towards Global and Regional Constraints (open access)

78. Aerosol optical properties and radiative effects: Assessment of urban aerosols in central China using 10-year observations

79. The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (open access)

80. Sensitivity of polar amplification to varying insolation conditions

81. Assessing the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate extremes using CMIP5 models


82. Basal Settings Control Fast Ice Flow in the Recovery/Slessor/Bailey Region, East Antarctica

83. Early 21st century spatially detailed elevation changes of Jammu and Kashmir glaciers (Karakoram–Himalaya)

"On an average the JK East (Karakoram) glaciers showed less negative elevation changes (− 0.19 ±0.22 m yr−1) compared to the JK West (Himalaya) glaciers (− 0.50 ±0.28 m yr−1)."

84. The accuracy of snow melt-off day derived from optical and microwave radiometer data — A study for Europe (open access)

85. Impacts of snow on soil temperature observed across the circumpolar north (open access)

86. Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections (open access)

87. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system (open access)

88. Topographic controls on the surging behaviour of Sabche Glacier, Nepal (1967 to 2017)

Carbon cycle

89. Potential of European 14CO2 observation network to estimate the fossil fuel CO2 emissions via atmospheric inversions (open access)

90. Substrate potential of last interglacial to Holocene permafrost organic matter for future microbial greenhouse gas production (open access)

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

91. Transient vs. Equilibrium Response of the Ocean’s Overturning Circulation to Warming

"The transient response to surface warming is characterized by a shoaling and weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—consistent with results from coupled climate simulations. The initial shoaling and weakening of the AMOC occurs on decadal time-scales and is attributed to a rapid warming of northern-sourced deep water. The equilibrium response to warming, in contrast, is associated with a deepening and strengthening of the AMOC. The eventual deepening of the AMOC is argued to be associated with abyssal density changes and driven by modified surface fluxes in the Southern Ocean, following a reduction of the Antarctic sea ice cover. Full equilibration of the AMOC requires a diffusive adjustment of the abyss and takes many millenia. The equilibration time-scale is much longer than most coupled climate model simulations, highlighting the importance of considering integration time and initial conditions when interpreting the deep ocean circulation in climate models. The results also show that past climates are unlikely to be an adequate analog for changes in the overturning circulation during the coming decades or centuries."

92. Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe (open access)

Other papers

General climate science

93. A New Monthly Pressure Dataset Poleward of 60°S since 1957

94. Detecting and adjusting artificial biases of long‐term temperature records in Israel


95. A “La Niña-like” state occurring in the second year after large tropical volcanic eruptions during the past 1500 years (open access)

96. Marine invertebrate migrations trace climate change over 450 million years

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on Friday, 13 April, 2018

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