Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019

38 articles, 9 open access

Known unknowns become known

3 months of SkS research news exposes a persistent feature of the weekly harvest: reports of investigations of expected climate outcomes in particular geographical sectors of Earth. This is made possible by regional climate modeling, a capacity that has matured and almost equally importantly become less expensive and hence more widely available in recent years. Earlier this year Filippo Giorgi's Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next? (open access) comprehensively described how we've arrived at the point that we may project our likely experience decades into the future.This ability allows us to tackle both mitigation of and adaptation to global warming in a plethora of modes, not least in agriculture, engineering and health sciences. We have a lot of planning to do if we're to optimize the dilemma we've created but happily we've developed the skill and resources to drive this planning with numbers.

We knew something was going to happen but now increasingly we can say how much and where. That tells us what we need to do.

More generally, it's one thing to hear that the world's temperature will increase by 2 degrees centigrade if we play our remaining cards exactly right, but our imaginations may light up a little more brightly when "2 degrees" is replaced by "these things will happen" and  "world" is replaced by "on my continent," or "in my country's borders" or "in my province" or "in my county." This information invites comparisons and comparisons can lead to resentment. The Earth being spherical and hence a closed space, as a pragmatic matter we're all in this together despite regional disparities; each local choice counts to a whole that we must each wish to be successful. Hopefully regional climate modeling will translate into public awareness and motivation that finds a sink in wise formulation of public policy connecting dots in a bigger picture.


Physical science of anthropogenic global warming

Effects of ocean slow response under low warming targets

How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change? (open access)

Observation of global warming and global warming effects

The role of winter warming in permafrost change over the Qinghai?Tibet Plateau

Stronger increase in the frequency of extreme convective El Niño than extreme warm El Niño under greenhouse warming

Responses of the Hadley Circulation to regional sea surface temperature changes

Deep Convection over Africa: annual cycle, ENSO, and trends in the hotspots

Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains

Ice shelf basal melt rates from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) record for Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica (open access)

Rising mean and extreme near surface air temperature across Nepal

Modeling global warming and global warming effects

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)

National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics

Evaluating a regional climate model simulation of Greenland ice sheet snow and firn density for improved surface mass balance estimates

Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers (open access)

Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth System Models due to representation of vegetation structure

North Atlantic Integrated Water Vapor Transport – from 850-2100 CE: Impacts on Western European Rainfall

Nonlinear response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to late Quaternary sea level and climate forcing (open access)

Estimates of changes in surface wind and temperature extremes in southwestern Norway using dynamical downscaling method under future climate

Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5?°C and 2?°C of global mean warming

Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Humans dealing with our global warming

The contribution of technological diffusion to climate change mitigation: a network-based approach

Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions

Climate uncertainty communication

Optimizing forest management stabilizes carbon under projected climate and wildfire

Impacts of Enhanced Weathering on biomass production for negative emission technologies and soil hydrology (open access)

Net neutral carbon responses to warming and grazing in alpine grassland ecosystems

Amplified or exaggerated changes in perceived temperature extremes under global warming

Using traditional ecological knowledge to understand and adapt to climate and biodiversity change on the Pacific coast of North America (open access)

Fast track or Slo-Mo? Public support and temporal preferences for phasing out fossil fuel cars in the United States (open access)

Capacity building for implementation of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement (open access)

Biology and global warming

Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability (open access)

Climate change and invasion may synergistically affect native plant reproduction


Introduction of water?vapor broadening parameters and their temperature?dependence exponents into the HITRAN database, Part I: CO2, N2O, CO, CH4, O2, NH3, and H2S


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The previous edition of Skeptical Science new research may be found here. 

Posted by Doug Bostrom on Tuesday, 15 October, 2019

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