Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42, 2019

54 articles, 18 open access

When positives are a negative

Nature Climate Change highlights Susan Natali's Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region, observing:

Warming in the Arctic is causing soils to decompose more rapidly, even during winter. Now, estimates of winter carbon dioxide loss indicate that it can offset carbon gains during the growing season, meaning that the region is a source of carbon.

We need another positive feedback like we need a hole in the head. Outcomes like this increase the weight of mitigation lifts we are currently failing to perform.

Speedier equilibrium opens a horizon of opportunity?

Geophysical Research Letters notes an article by D. Saint?Martin, Fast?Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate, remarking:

The Earth system responds on a range of timescales to a change in radiative forcing, and full equilibration takes centuries to millennia in many models. In their recent paper, [D.Saint-Martin et al] propose a technique for reaching a faster equilibrium temperature response to alternative CO2 concentration levels by briefly overshooting the desired concentration level to warm the deep ocean faster than a conventional step?change experiment. Understanding how these timescales interact is essential for better representing the relationship between transient climate change and the warming which should be expected as greenhouse gas concentrations stabilize. But, the technique also raises new possibilities about how Earth System Models could be developed, and whether we could gain the capacity to spin up alternative model configurations such as perturbed parameter simulations or alternative control states to explore historical forcing uncertainty.

Cow tuning for a better tomorrow

Adjusting input variables to dairy cattle so as to optimize for maximized milk output and minimized CO2 hoofprint is explored by Brandt et al with  their Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa. The authors find that— according to their results— there is potential to significantly expand dairy production while distinctly shrinking both CO2 intensity and (less dramatically) overall emissions from this sector, while also reducing loss of forest productivity. The devil may be in the details and the need to attend to those; the authors note the potential for problems if inputs are not scrupulously sourced.


Physical science of anthropogenic global warming

Rapid CO2 release from eroding permafrost in seawater

Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers (open access)

Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure (open access)

Thermodynamic and dynamic effects of increased moisture sources over the Tropical Indian Ocean in recent decades

Observation of global warming and global warming effects

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Assessment of water cycle intensification over land using a multi?source global gridded precipitation dataset

Temperatures across Europe: evidence of time trends

The Indian Ocean Deep Meridional Overturning Circulation in three Ocean Reanalysis Products

Asymmetrical shift towards longer dry spells associated with warming temperatures during Russian summers

Patch aggregation trends of the global climate landscape under future global warming scenario

Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate? (open access)

Modeling global warming and global warming effects

Fast?Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate

Assessment of the Laurentian Great Lakes’ hydrological conditions in a changing climate (open access)

Response of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the North Pacific Ocean to CO2 Quadrupling (open access)

Land?Atmosphere coupling regimes in a future climate in Africa: from model evaluation to projections based on CORDEX?Africa

How Robust is the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea?Ice Loss Across Climate Models?

Climatology explains intermodel spread in tropical upper tropospheric cloud and relative humidity response to greenhouse warming

Testing for dynamical dependence ?? Application to the surface mass balance over Antarctica

Sea?level science on the frontier of usability (open access)

Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Investigating the role of the relative humidity in the co?occurrence of temperature and heat stress extremes in CMIP5 projections

Is the net cloud radiative effect constrained to be uniform over the tropical warm pools?

Visualizing climate change adaptation: An effective tool for agricultural outreach?

New Approach for Bias Correction and Stochastic Downscaling of Future Projections for Daily Mean Temperatures to a High-resolution Grid

Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps

Intercomparison of daily precipitation persistence in multiple global observations and climate models (open access)

Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift

Humans dealing with our global warming

Taxing crude oil: A financing alternative to mitigate climate change?

The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers (open access)

Climate change impacts the epidemic of dysentery: determining climate risk window, modeling and projection (open access)

Climate exceeded human management as the dominant control of fire at the regional scale in California’s Sierra Nevada (open access)

Emotional foundations of the public climate change divide

Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios (open access)

Climate Warming Changed the Planting Boundaries of Varieties of Summer Corn with Different Maturity Levels in the North China Plain

Social readiness of adaptation technologies

Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa

Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall (open access)

Review of indicators for comparing environmental effects across energy sources (open access)

Evaluation of the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO 2 emissions in China’ transport sector: the FMOLS and VECM approaches

Which are the factors influencing the integration of mitigation and adaptation in climate change plans in Latin American cities? (open access)

Industrial water-use technical efficiency and potential reduction of CO2 emissions: evidence from industry-level data (open access)

Frames, facts, and the science of communicating environmental crises

Measuring climate resilience by linking shocks to development outcomes

Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Climate change and disasters: The ethics of leadership

Biology and global warming

Pathway dependence of ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming (open access)

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions (open access)

Priority effects will impede range shifts of temperate tree species into the boreal forest

Climate warming may affect the optimal timing of reproduction for migratory geese differently in the low and high Arctic (open access)

Global warming and artificial shorelines reshape seashore biogeography

Multi?scale integration of tree recruitment and range dynamics in a changing climate

Ecological resilience of Arctic marine food webs to climate change

The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow


The end of the wait for Climate Sensitivity?

Reply to Comment by Robock et al. on “Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations”


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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Tuesday, 22 October, 2019

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