Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2, 2020

Conflation and how to fix it

VIa AMS,  Raul Lejano looks at what in a layperson's thinking would be called conflation— confusion and blending of entirely different topics— when people think about climate change. Ideology and the Narrative of Skepticism  (open access) starts with some arguably frightening false connections between the science and policy outcomes of climate change with other drivers of social anxiety among people who reject what we know about climate change. Lejano moves on to identify some possible ways forward. Among those: "Climate skeptics need to be listened to, taken seriously, and respected. Finding a way to respect people expressing racial and other brands of bigotry (as identified in the paper) as a justification for ignoring facts is a bit of a large ask. Leaving that aside, Lejano's work seems to confirm general findings of much other work, and his conclusions about improving the flow and efficacy of climate communications are thought-provoking. Many buttons need to be pushed in many minds if we're to rise to this occasion. 

Bulging ocean warmth

A distinguished group of authors led by Ljing Cheng bring us very sobering news, in Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019. Open access. This graph neatly captures the overall picture:

 Ocean heat content Cheng et al 2019


61 Articles

Physical science of global warming 

Eurasian cooling linked with Arctic warming: Insights from PV dynamics

Role of local atmospheric forcing and land-atmosphere interaction in recent land surface warming in the middle latitude over East Asia (open access)

A Nonmodal Instability Perspective of the Declining Northern Midlatitude Synoptic Variability in Boreal Summer

Roles of sea ice–surface wind feedback in maintaining the glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate (open access)

Observations & observational methods of global warming & effects

Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019 (open access)

Global warming accelerates uptake of atmospheric mercury in regions experiencing glacier retreat (open access)

On the imbalance and response time of glaciers in the European Alps

Sentinel?1 detects firn aquifers in the Greenland Ice Sheet

POLSTRACC: Airborne Experiment for Studying the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate with the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) (open access)

Arctic Lower-Tropospheric Warm and Cold Extremes: Horizontal and Vertical Transport, Diabatic Processes, and Linkage to Synoptic Circulation Features

Analysis of 24 years of mesopause region OH rotational temperature observations at Davis, Antarctica – Part 1: Long-term trends (open access)

Lessons from a high CO2 world: an ocean view from ~ 3 million years ago (open access)

Modeling & simulation of global warming & global warming effects

Strong remote control of future equatorial warming by off-equatorial forcing

Intermodel uncertainty in the projection of the Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone associated with El Niño under global warming

Response of extreme rainfall for landfalling tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition to projected climate change: Hurricane Irene (2011) (open access)

Changes in extreme climate events in China under 1.5°C?4°C global warming targets: projections using an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

CMIP5 models predict rapid and deep soil warming over the 21st century

Decadal attribution of historic temperature and ocean heat content change to anthropogenic emissions

Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change Projections for the South Asian Monsoon: Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes and Physics Parameterization Impacts

Global and Regional Projected Changes in 100-yr Subdaily, Daily, and Multiday Precipitation Extremes Estimated from Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations (open access)

Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of mountain-glacier contribution to the sea level (open access)

Drought Risk Assessment for Future Climate Projections in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea

Climate model advancement

The Role of Zonally Averaged Climate Change in Contributing to Intermodel Spread in CMIP5 Predicted Local Precipitation Changes

On the Superposition of Mean Advective and Eddy-Induced Transports in Global Ocean Heat and Salt Budgets (open access)

How Are Emergent Constraints Quantifying Uncertainty and What Do They Leave Behind? (open access)

LongRunMIP: Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AOGCM Simulations (open access)

The sub-adiabatic model as a concept for evaluating the representation and radiative effects of low-level clouds in a high-resolution atmospheric model (open access)

A Causal Flow Approach for the evaluation of Global Climate Models

Biology & global warming

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

Light and warming drive forest understorey community development in different environments

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co?occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks (open access)

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Emissions in the stream: estimating the greenhouse gas impacts of an oil and gas boom (open access)

Forest management in southern China generates short term extensive carbon sequestration (open access)

The impact of improved satellite retrievals on estimates of biospheric carbon balance (open access)

Lagged effects dominate the inter-annual variability of the 2010–2015 tropical carbon balance (open access)

Changes in soil greenhouse gas fluxes by land use change from primary forest

Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change

Impacts of land management practices on blue carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes in coastal ecosystems—A meta?analysis

A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes

The Net Landscape Carbon Balance – Integrating terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes in a managed boreal forest landscape in Sweden

Soil carbon loss with warming: New evidence from carbon?degrading enzymes

Climate change communications & cognition

Ideology and the Narrative of Climate Skepticism (open access)

Understanding and countering the motivated roots of climate change denial

Humans dealing with our global warming

The Blue Fix: What's driving blue growth?

Climate change adaptation costs in developing countries: insights from existing estimates (open access)

Advancing the understanding of adaptive capacity of social?ecological systems to absorb climate extremes (open access)

Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming on rice production across China

Heat shocks increasingly impede grain filling but have little effect on grain setting across the Australian wheatbelt

The overlooked spatial dimension of climate?smart agriculture


A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue from 1950 to 2016 (open access)

Importance of orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking

Improved GNSS-R bi-static altimetry and independent DEMs of Greenland and Antarctica from TechDemoSat-1 (open access)

Causes and consequences of eastern Australia’s 2019?20 season of mega?fires

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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Wednesday, 15 January, 2020

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