Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5, 2021

BAMS Extreme Events of 2019 

The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has published its annual retrospective on 2019's extreme weather events and their connection to climate change, "Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 from a Climate Perspective." The entire collection of articles is available here, (pdf) or as separate pieces down below. Open access, fascinating. 

Research productivity

The BAMS 2019 report's author country constituency leads us back to the mission of Skeptical Science, in an elliptical way.

Once we've gotten past straight climate science denial in the slice of a general population hoping to duck primary responsibility for the accidental mess we've made of Earth's climate, a fork in the road presents itself, with one major path signed as "Solutions Denial." Down that road can be found various novel rhetorical gambits and other creative shirking methods, the destination being "I don't have to do anything about my mess." One favorite technique is to point to somebody else's imperfections and lean on those as an excuse to avoid self-improvement. 

China is a favorite shiny object to employ for "but what about them and if they don't change, why should I?" This "argument" is about as nonsensical as pointing to another vehicle full of children not wearing safety belts as an excuse to let one's own offspring be unrestrained and ready for launch through the windshield. However (and more pertinent to Skeptical Science New Research), China is in fact paying scrupulous attention to scientific research of anthropogenic climate change, climate change mitigation, decarbonization and the swath of public  policy necessary to get the country past its heavy dependence on hydrocarbons  ("mitigation" is "I own it and I have to fix it," for the rest of us).

This is amply apparent with a glance at the BAMS 2019 report, or any edition of New Research. China is richly equipped with supercomputer horsepower and is deploying those petaflops to perform climate modeling integrated with reanalysis at a prodigious scale, with a noticeable concentration in regional climate effects on agriculture, megacities and hydrology, these of course being special preoccupations for the country context. Policy research is very active in attempting to identify how to thread the needle of maintaining economic growth at historically high rates while rapidly decarbonizing. There is a notable level of intent for application to this collective research effort highly suggestive of urgency. China isn't going to do a perfect job in dealing with anthropogenic climate change of course (which nation is?) but neither is the country running away from the problem. China seems to fully understand the  potential cost of failure to deal with climate change and appears to be engaging in a concerted effort to deal with the problem. 

So, those hoping to exploit China as an excuse to dodge local responsibility may increasingly expect to hear an invitation for comparison thrown back: "OK. What are you doing about the problem?" To the extent that question goes unanswered, we're hearing hypocrisy draped on a scapegoat framework, with the scapegoat being not particularly guilty. There are in fact unfavorabe discrepancies visible in the research streams of various countries with adequate resources to drive research, these not being reflective of lack of talent but in the nature of funding priorities. Those priorities are where we're able to tell the difference between one nation and another, when it comes to assessing credibility of effort. 

143 Articles

Physical science of climate change, effects

Modeling the Radiative Effect on Microphysics in Cirrus Clouds against Satellite Observations
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033923

Observations of climate change, effects

Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 from a Climate Perspective
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-explainingextremeevents2019.1

Attribution of the Extreme Drought-Related Risk of Wildfires in Spring 2019 over Southwest China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0165.1

Has Global Warming Contributed to the Largest Number of Typhoons Affecting South Korea in September 2019?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0156.1

Extremely Warm Days in the United Kingdom in Winter 2018/19
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0123.1

Was the Extended Rainy Winter 2018/19 over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0127.1

Anthropogenic Influence on 2019 May–June Extremely Low Precipitation in Southwestern China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0128.1

Anthropogenic Contribution to the Rainfall Associated with the 2019 Ottawa River Flood
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0191.1

CMIP6 Model-Based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on the Long Sustained Western Cape Drought over 2015–19
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0159.1

Are Long-Term Changes in Mixed Layer Depth Influencing North Pacific Marine Heatwaves?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0144.1

Roles of Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability in the Record- Breaking Low Sunshine Event in January–February 2019 over the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0185.1

Increased Risk of the 2019 Alaskan July Fires due to Anthropogenic Activity
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0154.1

Attribution of 2019 Extreme Spring–Early Summer Hot Drought over Yunnan in Southwestern China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0121.1

Anthropogenic Influence on Hurricane Dorian’s Extreme Rainfall
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0160.1

Anthropogenic Influences on Heavy Precipitation during the 2019 Extremely Wet Rainy Season in Southern China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0135.1

Relationships between Wintertime Sea Ice Cover in the Barents Sea and Ocean Temperature Anomalies in the Era of Satellite Observations
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0022.1

On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U.S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD

Increasing Synchronous Fire Danger in Forests of the Western United States
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091377

The Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic SST Trends, 1870–2019
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090677

Continuous Estimates of Glacier Mass Balance in High Mountain Asia Based on ICESat?1,2 and GRACE/GRACE Follow?On Data
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090954

Changes in Hourly Extreme Precipitation over Eastern China from 1970 to 2019 Dominated by Synoptic?Scale Precipitation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090620

A global, multi?product analysis of coastal marine heatwaves: distribution, characteristics and long?term trends
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016708

Diurnal asymmetry of desert amplification and its possible connections to planetary boundary layer height: a case study for the Arabian Peninsula
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05634-x

Declining Summertime pCO2 in tundra lakes in a granitic landscape

Atlantic and Mediterranean influence promoting an abrupt change in winter precipitation over the southern Iberian Peninsula
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105485

Interdecadal changes in Southern Hemisphere winter explosive storms and Southern Australian rainfall
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05633-y

The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5

Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice?sheet melt and mass?balance change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6771

On the changing relationship between North Pacific climate variability and synoptic activity over the Hawaiian Islands
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6789

Assessing trends in atmospheric circulation patterns across North America
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6983

Time?varying trends in frost indicators in the U.S. Southern Great Plains
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6803

Landsat-based lake distribution and changes in western Alaska permafrost regions between the 1970s and 2010s
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd270

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

The CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) measurement campaign
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1049-2021

Representation of Climate in Reanalyses: An Intercomparison for Europe and North America
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0609.1

Partitioning net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 using Solar?Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Diurnal asymmetry of desert amplification and its possible connections to planetary boundary layer height: a case study for the Arabian Peninsula
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05634-x

An imputation method for the climatic data with strong seasonality and spatial correlation
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03537-9

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x

Future changes in the Hadley circulation: the role of ocean heat transport
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091372

The Relationship between Precipitation and Precipitable Water in CMIP6 Simulations and Implications for Tropical Climatology and Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0211.1

Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2019-1207

Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2019-1152

The Influence of Sudden Arctic Sea-Ice Thinning on North Atlantic Oscillation Events

Two Atmospheric Responses to Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Barents?Kara Seas
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090288

Evolution of dry and wet spells under climate change over North?Eastern North America
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033740

Correlations between sea?level components are driven by regional climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001825

Future Changes in the Asian?Australian Monsoon System With 1.5°C and 2°C Rise in Temperature
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032872

The impact of snow loss and soil moisture on convective precipitation over the Rocky Mountains under climate warming
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05622-7

Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05641-y

Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05618-3

Using large ensemble modelling to derive future changes in mountain specific climate indicators in a 2 and 3°C warmer world in High Mountain Asia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6742

Climate analogue and future appearance of novel climate in Southeast Asia

Assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment load in the upstream of the Mekong River Basin
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7025

An integrated multi?GCMs Bayesian?neural?network hydrological analysis method for quantifying climate change impact on runoff of the Amu Darya River basin
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7026

Changes of extreme climate events and related risk exposures in Huang?Huai?Hai river basin under 1.5–2°C global warming targets based on high resolution combined dynamical and statistical downscaling dataset
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6820

Future projections of winter cold surge paths over East Asia from CMIP6 models
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6797

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Compensation between cloud feedback and aerosol?cloud interaction in CMIP6 models
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091024

Is the Stationary Wave Bias in CMIP5 Simulations Driven by Latent Heating Biases?
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091678

Improved atmospheric circulation over Europe by the new generation of CMIP6 earth system models
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05652-9

A sensitivity analysis of the different setups of the RegCM4.5 model for the Carpathian region

Internal variability versus multi?physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

Climate change scenarios at hourly time?step over Switzerland from an enhanced temporal downscaling approach
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7032

Cryosphere & climate change

A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Antecedent control on active ice sheet retreat revealed by seafloor geomorphology, offshore Windmill Islands, Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-8 (preprint)

Thinning leads to calving-style changes at Bowdoin Glacier, Greenland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-252

Indication of high basal melting at EastGRIP drill site on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

Continuous Estimates of Glacier Mass Balance in High Mountain Asia Based on ICESat?1,2 and GRACE/GRACE Follow?On Data
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090954

Remote control of Filchner?Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates by the Antarctic Slope Current.
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016550

Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice?sheet melt and mass?balance change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6771


Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-253-2021

Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-459-2021

Greenland climate simulations show high Eemian surface melt which could explain reduced total air content in ice cores
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-317-2021

Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the past 3.6 million years
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8762

Biology & climate change, ocean acidification

Multispecies justice: Climate?just futures with, for and beyond humans
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.699

Mechanisms matter: predicting the ecological impacts of global change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15527

Late afternoon seasonal transition to dissolution in a coral reef: An early warning of a net dissolving ecosystem?
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090811

Ocean acidification locks algal communities in a species?poor early successional stage
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15455

Forecasting impacts of ocean acidification on marine communities: Utilising volcanic CO2 vents as natural laboratories

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15490

Macroecological context predicts species’ responses to climate warming
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15532

Genomic vulnerability of a dominant seaweed points to future?proofing pathways for Australia’s underwater forests
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15534

Climate sensitivity of understory trees differs from overstory trees in temperate mesic forests
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3264

Climate?driven conifer mortality in Siberia
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13243

Climate?driven range shifts of montane species vary with elevation
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13246

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Temporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20616-z

Under-reporting of greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. cities
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20871-0

Sensitivity of 21st century ocean carbon export flux projections to the choice of export depth horizon
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504023.1

Estimating maximum fine-fraction organic carbon in UK grasslands
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-605-2021

The CO2 integral emission by the megacity of St. Petersburg as quantified from ground-based FTIR measurements combined with dispersion modelling

Partitioning net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 using Solar?Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon and Freshwater Export in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005725

Ecosystem scale implication of soil CO2 concentration dynamics during soil freezing in Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystems

Isotopic Branchpoints: Linkages and Efficiencies in Carbon and Water Budgets
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006043

Global estimates of marine gross primary production based on machine?learning upscaling of field observations
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006718

Wind, convection and fetch dependence of gas transfer velocity in an Arctic sea?ice lead determined from eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements

Consistent Relationships Among Productivity Rate Methods in the NE Subarctic Pacific
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006721

Declining Summertime pCO2 in tundra lakes in a granitic landscape

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emission inventory for Pakistan: Part II agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.003

The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5

Spartina alterniflora invasion controls organic carbon stocks in coastal marsh and mangrove soils across tropics and subtropics
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15516

The influence of two land?surface hydrology schemes on the terrestrial carbon cycle of Africa: A regional climate model study
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6762

Greening of the earth does not compensate for rising soil heterotrophic respiration under climate change
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15531

Estimating the carbon storage potential and greenhouse gas emissions of French arable cropland using high?resolution modeling
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15512

Herbivore absence can shift dry heath tundra from carbon source to sink during peak growing season
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd3d0

Carbon footprint of a university campus from Colombia
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1876531

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Estimating maximum fine-fraction organic carbon in UK grasslands
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-605-2021

Carbon Dioxide Fluxes of a Young Deciduous Afforestation Under the Influence of Seasonal Precipitation Patterns and Frequent Typhoon Occurrence
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005996

Getting the message right on nature?based solutions to climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15513

Role of negative emissions technologies (NETs) and innovative technologies in transition of Japan’s energy systems toward net-zero CO 2 emissions

Injectivity index: a powerful tool for characterizing CO2 storage reservoirs—a technical note

Comparison of geological models for the simulation of CO2 migration: a case study in Ordos, China

Geoengineering climate

North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding regional implications of solar radiation management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-802


Low-carbon pathways for the booming express delivery sector in China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20738-4

Climate change communications, perception & cognition

Understanding the Links Between Climate Change Risk Perceptions and the Action Response to Inform Climate Services Interventions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/risa.13683

Voices of contention: the value of development narratives in the age of climate (change) migration misconceptions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1877103

Are perception and adaptation to climate variability and change of cowpea growers in Mali gender differentiated?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01242-1

Time-series trend analysis and farmer perceptions of rainfall and temperature in northwestern Ethiopia
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01192-0

The effect of cultural practices and perceptions on global climate change response among Indigenous peoples: a case study on the Tayal people in northern Taiwan
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5c

Supporting communities of practice as a strategy to accelerate uptake of environmental science for climate action: TV weathercasters as a case study
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcfe2

Exploring the roles of analytic cognitive style, climate science literacy, illusion of knowledge, and political orientation in climate change skepticism
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101561

Engaging People on Climate Change: The Role of Emotional Responses
DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1871051

Political polarization in support for subsidizing unprofitable coal power plants

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81907-z

Impacts of climatic hazards on agricultural growth in India
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1867045

Shifts in the thermal niche of fruit trees under climate change: The case of peach cultivation in France
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.28.315960

Near future climate change projections with implications for the agricultural sector of three major Mediterranean islands
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01736-0

Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut ( Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01745-z

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15490

Crop rotations sustain cereal yields under a changing climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc651

Pure and even-aged forestry of fast-growing conifers under climate change: on the need for a silvicultural paradigm shift

Future climate risk to UK agriculture from compound events
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100282

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Adapting our Flood Risk Policies to Changing Conditions

How does emission right-based lending contribute to sustainable production and green financing? A modelling study
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01246-x

A computable general equilibrium analysis of environmental tax reform in Japan with a forward-looking dynamic model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00903-4

Financing for sustainability: Empirical analysis of green bond premium and issuer heterogeneity
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04540-z

Climate change mitigation public policy research

The climate change mitigation impacts of active travel: Evidence from a longitudinal panel study in seven European cities
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102224

Life Cycle Assessment of Coal-to-Liquid Process
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01252-z

Explaining the emergence of low carbon forerunner cities based on the interaction effects of different governance processes: a case study of china's low carbon pilot
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1876530

Residential coal-switch policy in China: Development, achievement, and challenge
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112165

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20704-0

The role of social networks in relocation induced by climate-related hazards: an empirical investigation in China
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1877102

On- and non-farm adaptation in Senegal: understanding differentiation and drivers of farmer strategies
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1881424

Climate change impacts on human culture

Managing climate change risk: the case of the Italian Churches
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04415-9


Poleward Shift of the Kuroshio Extension Front and Its Impact on the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water in the Recent Decades
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-20-0088.1

A future perspective of historical contributions to climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02982-9

Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00982-8

Reply to: Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00983-7

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A digital twin of Earth for the green transition
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-00986-y

Invited perspective: What lies beneath a changing Arctic?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-479-2021

Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-35 (preprint)

Are there similarities between the Corona and the climate crisis?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00666-5


Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided.


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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found  here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Posted by Doug Bostrom on Wednesday, 3 February, 2021

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