Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2021

$62,000,000,000 of simulated "income

Dealing with climate change as a society and in a socially cooperative fashion has proven uniquely difficult among historical collisions of science and public policy. Skeptical Science itself is simply an offshoot of this situation. Why is this so? We have various clues on hand. In "The producer benefits of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States" by Matthew Kotchen and just published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of he United States of America perhaps we find another hint. The abstract:

This paper estimates the financial benefits accruing to fossil fuel producers (i.e., the producer incidence) that arise because of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States. The analysis takes account of coal, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel, along with the implicit subsidies due to externalized environmental damages, public health effects, and transportation-related costs. The direct benefit to fossil fuel producers across all four fuels is estimated at $62 billion per year, a sum calculated due to the higher price that suppliers receive because of inefficient pricing compared to the counterfactual scenario where environmental and public health externalities are internalized. A significant portion of these benefits accrue to relatively few companies, and specific estimates are provided for companies with the largest production. The financial benefit because of unpriced costs borne by society is comparable to 18% of net income from continuing domestic operations for the median natural gas and oil producer in 2017–2018, and it exceeds net income for the majority of coal producers. The results clarify what the domestic fossil fuel industry has at stake financially when it comes to policies that seek to address climate change, adverse health effects from local pollution, and inefficient transportation.

The majority of coal producers are entirely dependent on an invisible form of welfare for their "profit." Is it any wonder that fossil fuel companies have assiduously encouraged prevarication and delay of what ultimately must be the end of hydrocarbon monetization as a byproduct of our energy supply? 

89 Articles 

Physical science of climate change, effects

Changes in atmospheric latent energy transport into the Arctic; planetary versus synoptic scales

Observations of climate change, effects

Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps: 1971 to 2019
Matiu et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3287

Climate change in China affects runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention more than changes in leaf area index and land use/cover over the period 1982–2015
Zhai & Tao 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005902

Deep-Water Warming in the Gulf of Mexico from 2003 to 2019
Ochoa et al 2021 Journal of Physical Oceanography
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-19-0295.1

A Decline of Observed Daily Peak Wind Gusts with Distinct Seasonality in Australia, 1941–2016

Change in the Occurrence Frequency of Landfalling and Non-Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Northwest Pacific
Xiao 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0647.1

Convective precipitation trends in the Spanish Mediterranean region
Llasat et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105581

Climatic drivers of extreme sea level events along the coastline of Western Australia
Lowe et al 2021 Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001620

Near-surface warming reduces dew frequency in China
Dou et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091923

Retreat of Humboldt Gletscher, North Greenland, driven by undercutting from a warmer ocean.
Rignot et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091342

Drivers of phenology shifts and their effect on productivity in northern grassland of China during 1984–2017—evidence from long-term observational data
Xu et al 2020 International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02046-0

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast

The Lorenz energy cycle: trends and the impact of modes of climate variability
Ma et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1900033

A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen

Recent climate change is creating hotspots of butterfly increase and decline across North America
Crossley et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15582

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Middle-Atmosphere Temperature Monitoring Addressed with a Constellation of CubeSats Dedicated to Climate Issues

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Non-monotonic Response of the Climate System to Abrupt CO2 Forcing

Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey
Baçaci et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105576

A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis
Sarofim et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6

Evolving AMOC multidecadal variability under different CO 2 forcings

Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations
Griffiths et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2019-1216

Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate
Joh et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-85582-y

Impacts of climate change on intensity–duration–frequency curves in the rainiest city (Rize) of Turkey
?en & Kahya 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03592-2

Projected Changes to Australian Marine Heatwaves
Misra et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091323

Transient Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss with Two Ice-Constraining Methods
Simon et al 2021 Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0288.1

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Development and validation of the Climate Model Confidence Index (CMCI): measuring ability to reproduce historical climate conditions
Hewer et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03581-5

A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble
Irving et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0281.1

Evaluating the Diurnal and Semidiurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

A modified gas-phase scheme for advanced regional climate modelling with RegCM4
Ciarlo` et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05722-y

Regional Climate Model Biases, Their Dependence on Synoptic Circulation Biases and the Potential for Bias Adjustment: A Process-Oriented Evaluation of the Austrian Regional Climate Projections
Maraun et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032824

New observational constraints on warm rain processes and their climate implications
Dong et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091836

Cryosphere & climate change

Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation
Hansen et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-69

Retreat of Humboldt Gletscher, North Greenland, driven by undercutting from a warmer ocean.
Rignot et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091342

Paleoclimate

A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century
Christ et al 2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2021442118

Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano’s miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity
Zanchetta et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x

Milankovitch, the father of paleoclimate modelling
Berger 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2021-9

Lower oceanic δ13C during the last interglacial period compared to the Holocene

Biology & climate change

Changing climate associated with the range-wide decline of an estuarine finfish
Erickson et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15568

Increased water use efficiency leads to decreased precipitation sensitivity of tree growth, but is offset by high temperatures
Heilman et al 2021 Oecologia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04892-0

Phenological sensitivity to temperature mediates herbivory
Meineke et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15600

Polar bear diet in the face of Arctic climate change
Jack Tseng 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15599

Meta-analysis of the response of marine phytoplankton to nutrient addition and seawater warming
Wu et al 2021 Marine Environmental Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105294

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave
Suryan et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83818-5

Climate change transforms the functional identity of Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages
Gómez-Gras et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/ele.13718

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda
De Frenne et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15569

How robust is the apparent break-down of northern high-latitude temperature control on spring carbon uptake?
Joyce et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091601

Drivers of phenology shifts and their effect on productivity in northern grassland of China during 1984–2017—evidence from long-term observational data
Xu et al 2020 International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02046-0

Unexpected greening in a boreal permafrost peatland undergoing forest loss is partially attributable to tree species turnover
Dearborn & Baltzer 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15608

European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South
Duchenne et al 2021
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13730

Vulnerability of bat-plant pollination interactions due to environmental change
Zamora-Gutiérrez et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15611

Recent climate change is creating hotspots of butterfly increase and decline across North America
Crossley et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15582

GHG sources & sinks, flux

A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen

Substantial decrease in CO2 emissions from Chinese inland waters due to global change
Ran et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21926-6

Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change
Heinrich et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22050-1

Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical coastal wetlands and their alternative agricultural lands: Where significant mitigation gains lie
Iram et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-28

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high-latitudes
Zha & Zhuang 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-57

Analysis of a wastewater treatment plant for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
Sharawat et al 2020 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
DOI: 10.1007/s13762-020-02893-9

Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO2 Growth in a Multi-Model Framework
Ilyina et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504292.1

Can land surface models capture the observed soil moisture control of water and carbon fluxes in temperate-to-boreal forests?
Santos et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005999

Comment on “Increasing Rates of Carbon Burial in Southwest Florida Coastal Wetlands” by J. Breithaupt et al.
Parkinson et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006057

Legacy effects following fire on surface energy, water and carbon fluxes in mature Amazonian forests
de Oliveira et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005833

Carbon sink of a very high marshland on the Tibetan Plateau
Qi et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006235

The Pulse of the Amazon: Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, nutrients, and ions from the world’s largest river
Drake et al 2021 Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006895

Stable Carbon Isotopes Suggest Large Terrestrial Carbon Inputs to the Global Ocean
Kwon et al 2021 Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006684

Quantifying errors in observationally-based estimates of ocean carbon sink variability
Gloege et al 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006788

The ocean carbon response to COVID-related emissions reductions
Lovenduski et al 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092263

Quantification of Natural CO2 Emission Through Faults and Fracture Zones in Coal Basins

Drivers of difference in CO2 and CH4 emissions between rubber plantation and tropical rainforest soils

Similar importance of edaphic and climatic factors for controlling soil organic carbon stocks of the world
Luo et al 2021 Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-2063-2021

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Exploring cross-national public support for the use of enhanced weathering as a land-based carbon dioxide removal strategy
Spence et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03050-y

Influence of elevated CO 2 concentrations on growth, nutrient removal, and CO 2 biofixation using Chlorella kessleri cultivation

Geoengineering climate Aerosols

How does the North Atlantic SST pattern respond to anthropogenic aerosols in the 1970s and 2000s?
Fiedler & Putrasahan 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092142

New Particle Formation and Growth to Climate-relevant Aerosols at a background remote Site in the Western Himalaya
Sebastian et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033267

Decarbonization

Achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals requires carbon neutrality by middle century with far-reaching transitions in the whole society
Huang & Zhai 2021 Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.004

Climate change communications & cognition

Conceptual framing to link climate risk assessments and climate-migration scholarship
McLeman et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03056-6

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

The producer benefits of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States
Kotchen 2021 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2011969118

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Impacts of fertilization on grassland productivity and water quality across the European Alps under current and warming climate: insights from a mechanistic model
Botter et al 2021 Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-1917-2021

Local Effects of Climate Change on Row Crop Production and Irrigation Adoption
He-Lambert et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100293

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest

Climate change risk to southern African wild food plants
Wessels et al 2020
Open Access DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01755-5

Spatio-temporal assessment of GHG emissions and nutrient sequestration linked to agronutrient runoff in global wetlands
Pasut et al 2021 Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006816

Climate change impacts on human health

Understanding the effect of climate change in the distribution and intensity of malaria transmission over India using a dynamical malaria model
Chaturvedi & Dwivedi 2021 International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02097-x

Deadly heat stress to become commonplace across South Asia already at 1.5°C of global warming
Saeed et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091191

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Urban greenspace as a climate change adaptation strategy for subtropical Asian cities: A comparative study across cities in three countries
Mabon & Shih 2021 Global Environmental Change
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102248

Climate change impacts and strategies for adaptation for water resource management in Indiana
Cherkauer et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02979-4

A critical exploration of adaptation heuristics
Nalau et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100292

Global patterns of adaptation to climate change by Indigenous Peoples and local communities. A systematic review
Schlingmann et al 2021 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.03.002

Other

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?
Overland et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d

Atmospherically-forced and chaotic interannual variability of regional sea level and its components over 1993-2015
Alice Carret et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc017123

A plural climate studies framework for the Himalayas
Chakraborty et al 2021 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.02.005

Dams and climate interact to alter river flow regimes across the United States
Chalise et al 2021 Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001816

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate
Sala et al 2021 Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03371-z

 


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