The Clausius-Clapeyron equation isn't complicated— once somebody has thought of the concept and mathematically tamed it. However, the deceptively meek and harmless looking caged expression of the idea in combination with an entire planet's atmosphere heating up in the presence of an ample water supply unpacks as a zoo of forbidding complications for us humans and our built environment.
Capturing and quantitatively describing details of how our climate train wreck is going to unfold is in some ways even more difficult than establishing root cause principles such as the Clausius-Clapeyron.equation. A lot of previous work in disparate disciplines has first to be assembled and then extended into an self-consistent, coherent whole in order to produce useful results, with this work requiring objectively remarkable aggregations of specialist insight working in deep cooperation. Despite the steep hill of progress, researchers with sufficient collective technical and collaborative skills and employing newly available tools are elucidating consequences of our fundamental error in fixating on fossil hydrocarbons as our principal energy source.
In this week's highlighted article and exemplar of what might be termed "reverse engineering the future" we learn details about how water already available will interact with heat we're accidentally providing to cost us a lot of inconvenience, along with eye-popping amounts of money. Rhoades et al marry the physical science and modeling of climate change with large-scale economic damage exposure and loss to explore and quantify one such inexorably damper and warmer scenario in Implications of warming on western United States landfalling atmospheric rivers and their flood damages. The paper essentially hinges on this seemingly bland statement of basic facts:
Feedbacks that alter thermodynamic processes arise primarily from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (i.e., column-integrated water vapor increases at approximately +7.5%/K [17]) that in turn influences the magnitude and variability of moisture sources that seed ARs.
A short sentence that mushrooms when fully teased out, quantified and put into the context of human affairs. These investigators have obviously put a lot of effort into this publication but the takeaway for us laypersons is not very complicated: a "successful" confinement of temperature rise to 2 degrees C will leave the West Coast of the US with an annual $2 billion additional bill for flood damages. This is due to the ratio of beneficial to damaging atmospheric rivers being substantially changed. From the abstract:
We show that warming increases the number of water manage-ment relevant landfalling ARs from 19.1 ARs per year at +0?C to 23.6 ARs per year at +3?C. Additionally, this warming intensifies the amount of wa-ter transported by landfalling ARs resulting in a decrease in the fraction of ARs that are “mostly to primarily beneficial” to water resource management (i.e., 91% of ARs at +0?C to 78% at +3?C) and an increase in the fraction of ARs that are “mostly or primarily hazardous” to water resource manage-ment (i.e., 2% of ARs at +0?C to 8% at +3?C).
Implications of warming on western United States landfalling atmospheric rivers and their flood damages is open access and despite being "free" is possibly worth quite a few billion dollars— if we read and hear.
Notable: over 1/2 of this edition's articles are open access, the first such ratio of quantified scientific integrity since we've been keeping track. Could the apparatus of scientific publishing be shedding its recently adopted Rupert Maxwell architecture, moving beyond its oddly anachronistic alchemy-inspired phase? Are we seeing a secular trend? Don't jinx the graph by making predictions.
Observations of climate change, effects
An assessment of climate change impact on air masses arriving in Athens, Greece
Karozis et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03624-x
Regional differences in surface air temperature changing patterns from 1960 to 2016 of China
Yuan et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05774-0
Climate change and Northern Hemisphere lake and river ice phenology from 1931–2005
Newton & Mullan 2021 The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021
Ice-marginal lakes associated with enhanced recession of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Mallalieu et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103503
Heat waves in spring from Senegal to Sahel: Evolution under climate change
Sambou et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7176
First and last frost date determinations based on meteorological observations in Japan: trend analysis and estimation scheme construction
Masaki 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03637-6
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Ciavarella et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A novel statistical decomposition of the historical change in global mean surface temperature
Qian et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abea34
Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution
van Oldenborgh et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An assessment of climate change impact on air masses arriving in Athens, Greece
Karozis et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03624-x
Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents across two generations of climate models
Sen Gupta et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-88934-w
Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperatures across the Loess Plateau, China
Fan et al 2021 Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100328
Arctic Warming Revealed by Multiple CMIP6 Models: Evaluation of Historical Simulations and Quantification of Future Projection Uncertainties
Cai et al 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0791.1
Heat waves in spring from Senegal to Sahel: Evolution under climate change
Sambou et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7176
The projected effects of urbanization and climate change on summer thermal environment in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China
Wang et al 2021 Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100866
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation?
Moreno-Chamarro et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a
Long-term simulation of daily rainfall across India: Performance of cumulus convection schemes in regional climate model during southwest and northeast monsoon
Dutta et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105675
Effects of cumulus parameterization and land-surface hydrology schemes on Tibetan Plateau climate simulation during the wet season: insights from the RegCM4 model
Wang et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05781-1
CMIP5 model performance of significant wave heights over the Indian Ocean using COWCLIP datasets
Krishnan et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03642-9
Evaluating spatial patterns of Asian meteorological drought variations and associated SST anomalies in CMIP6 models
Zhang & Wu 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03639-4
Cryosphere & climate change
Weakening of the pinning point buttressing Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica
Wild et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-130
Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization
Crawford et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
de Vrese & Brovkin 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
Preferential export of permafrost-derived organic matter as retrogressive thaw slumping intensifies
Bröder et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abee4b
Climate change and Northern Hemisphere lake and river ice phenology from 1931–2005
Newton & Mullan 2021 The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021
Ice-marginal lakes associated with enhanced recession of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Mallalieu et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103503
Extending End-of-Summer-Snowlines for the Southern Alps Glaciers of New Zealand back to 1949
Salinger et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7177
Sea level & climate change
Author Correction: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure
Nicholls et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01064-z
Paleoclimate
AMOC and Climate Responses to Dust Reduction and Greening of the Sahara during the Mid-Holocene
Zhang et al 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0628.1
Tree-ring-based hydroclimatic reconstruction for the northwest Argentine Patagonia since 1055 CE and its teleconnection to large-scale atmospheric circulation
Hadad et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103496
Biology & climate change
Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental?scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems
Gervais et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15634
The climatic debt is growing in the understorey of temperate forests: Stand characteristics matter
Richard et al 2021 Global Ecology and Biogeography
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13312
Non-native species outperform natives in coastal marine ecosystems subjected to warming and freshening events
McKnight et al 2021 Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/geb.13318
Impact of climate change on alpine plant community in Qilian Mountains of China
Du et al 2021 International Journal of Biometeorology
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02141-w
Oceanic islands and climate: using a multi-criteria model of drivers of change to select key conservation areas in Galapagos
Escobar-Camacho et al 2021 Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01768-0
Is the southern crab Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775) the next invader of Antarctica?
López-Farrán et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15674
Tree line advance reduces mixing and oxygen concentrations in arctic-alpine lakes through wind sheltering and organic carbon supply
Klaus et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15660
Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework
Bhatt et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe676
Quantifying carbon footprint for ecological river restoration
Chiu et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01477-y
Physiological Response to Warming in Intertidal Macroalgae with Different Thermal Affinity
Díaz-Acosta et al 2021 Marine Environmental Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105350
Fevers are plaguing the oceans — and climate change is making them worse
Viglione 2021 Nature
DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-01142-4
GHG sources & sinks, flux
An empirical analysis of the environmental performance of China’s overseas coal plants
Springer et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf287
Supply chain effects of China’s fast growing marine economy on greenhouse gas emissions
Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
de Vrese & Brovkin 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
Beyond biomass to carbon fluxes: application and evaluation of a comprehensive forest carbon monitoring system
Zhou et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf06d
Preferential export of permafrost-derived organic matter as retrogressive thaw slumping intensifies
Bröder et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abee4b
Assessing the carbon dioxide balance of a degraded tropical peat swamp forest following multiple fire events of different intensities
Ohkubo et al 2021 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108448
Grassland-to-cropland conversion increased soil, nutrient, and carbon losses in the US Midwest between 2008 and 2016
Zhang et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abecbe
Fluvial carbon dioxide emission from the Lena River basin during spring flood
Vorobyev et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-109
Soil carbon balance of afforested peatlands in the maritime temperate climatic zone
Jovani-Sancho et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15654
Ocean acidification
Calcium carbonate dissolution patterns in the ocean
Sulpis et al 2021 Nature Geoscience
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00743-y
Recent trends in the wind-driven California current upwelling system
Quilfen et al 2021 Remote Sensing of Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112486
Oyster biomineralisation under ocean acidification: from genes to shell
Chandra Rajan et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15675
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
Emerging reporting and verification needs under the Paris Agreement: How can the research community effectively contribute?
Perugini et al 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.012
Modest capacity of no-till farming to offset emissions over 21st century
Graham et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe6c6
Dynamic global monitoring needed to use restoration of forest cover as a climate solution
Cook-Patton et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01022-9
The role of electricity mix and production efficiency improvements on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of building components and future refurbishment measures
Potr? Obrecht et al 2021 The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11367-021-01920-2
Geoengineering climate
Response of the Indian summer monsoon to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination
Bhowmick et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-89249-6
Black carbon Aerosols Decarbonization
Explaining the slow progress of coal phase-out: The case of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Region
Wang et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112331
Climate change communications & cognition
Who supports which low-carbon transport policies? Characterizing heterogeneity among Canadian citizens
Long et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112302
Contemporary Flood Risk Perceptions in England: Implications for Flood Risk Management Foresight
Ngenyam Bang & Church Burton 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100317
Not all boomers: temporal orientation explains inter- and intra-cultural variability in the link between age and climate engagement
Geiger et al 2021
Open Access DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03116-x
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions
Laborde et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22703-1
Modest capacity of no-till farming to offset emissions over 21st century
Graham et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe6c6
Increasing maize yields in Northeast China are more closely associated with changes in crop timing than with climate warming
Zhang et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe490
Evaluating the practices of climate-smart agriculture sustainability in Ethiopia using geocybernetic assessment matrix
Kassaye et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01466-1
Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions under changing climate: the case of Fars province in Iran
Ghazali et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03088-y
Hydrology & climate change
+++ Implications of warming on western United States landfalling atmospheric rivers and their flood damages
Rhoades et al 2021 Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100326
Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming
Naumann et al 2020
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3
Role of the Tibetan Plateau in Northern Drought Induced by Changes in the Subtropical Westerly Jet
Zhu et al 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0799.1
Assessing the impact of climate change on urban water demand and related uncertainties: a case study of Neyshabur, Iran
Sharafati et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03638-5
Spatio-temporal variations of dryness/wetness over Northwest China under different SSPs-RCPs
Qin et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105672
Possible Connection between Declining Barents Sea Ice and Interdecadal Increasing Northeast China Precipitation in May
Li et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7193
Urban flood risks and emerging challenges in a Chinese delta: The case of the Pearl River Delta
Chan et al 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.009
Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation
Evaluating available solar photovoltaic business opportunities in coal phase-out regions – An energy transition case of Steve Tshwete local municipality in South Africa
Stanley Semelane et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112333
Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming
Naumann et al 2020
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3
Uncertainty analysis of the future cost of wind energy on climate change mitigation
Kanyako & Baker 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03105-0
REDD+ and leakage: debunking myths and promoting integrated solutions
Streck 2021 Climate Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1920363
Virtual water and CO2 emission footprints embodied in power trade: EU-27
Financial inclusion may limit sustainable development under economic globalization and climate change
Li et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf465
Climate change mitigation public policy research
On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
van der Wijst et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22826-5
The importance of health co-benefits under different climate policy cooperation frameworks
Scovronick et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf2e7
The nexuses between energy investments, technological innovations, emission taxes, and carbon emissions in China
Ma et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112345
1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
Keyßer & Lenzen 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9
Understanding the political challenges of introducing a carbon tax in Indonesia
Dyarto & Setyawan 2020 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
DOI: 10.1007/s13762-020-02925-4
Reduce aviation's greenhouse gas emissions through immediately feasible and affordable gate electrification
Greer et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf7f1
Homeowner low carbon retrofits: Implications for future UK policy
Bobrova et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112344
Climate change impacts on human health
Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities: findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany
Laranjeira et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03103-2
Rethinking urban heat stress: Assessing risk and adaptation options across socioeconomic groups in Bonn, Germany
Sandholz et al 2021 Urban Climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100857
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century
Schleussner et al 2021 Global Environmental Change
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abed79
The promise of panarchy in managed retreat: converging psychological perspectives and complex adaptive systems theory
Greenlees & Cornelius 2021 Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00686-1
What role for multi-stakeholder partnerships in adaptation to climate change? Experiences from private sector adaptation in Kenya
Elizabeth Gannon et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100319
Contemporary Flood Risk Perceptions in England: Implications for Flood Risk Management Foresight
Ngenyam Bang & Church Burton 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100317
Cooling hot cities: a systematic and critical review of the numerical modelling literature
Krayenhoff et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf1
Anticipatory planning: Finding balance in climate change adaptation governance
Birchall et al 2021 Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100859
Expertise and exclusivity in adaptation decision-making
Falzon 2021 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.03.016
Climate change impacts on human culture
Determinants of livelihood vulnerability to climate change: Two minority ethnic communities in the northwest mountainous region of Vietnam
Nguyen & Leisz 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.007
Vulnerability of tourism to climate change on the Mediterranean coastal area of El Hammam–EL Alamein, Egypt
El-Masry et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01488-9
Environmental, Climate and Socio-economic factors in Large-Scale Land Acquisitions (LSLAs)
Mazzocchi et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100316
Solastalgia, place attachment and disruption: insights from a coastal community on the front line
Phillips & Murphy 2021 Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01778-y
Intangible cultural heritage: a benefit to climate-displaced and host communities
Aktürk & Lerski 2021 Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00697-y
Impact of Global Warming on Snow in Ski Areas: A Case Study Using a Regional Climate Simulation over the Interior Western United States
Lackner et al 2021 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-20-0155.1
Other
May 2021 Updates to the Climate Case Charts
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Equity in climate scholarship: a manifesto for action
Schipper et al 2021 Climate and Development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1923308
A ground-breaking judgment in Germany
The new coal champion of the world: The political economy of Chinese overseas development finance for coal-fired power plants
Kong & Gallagher 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112334
Usable climate science is adaptation science
Sobel et al 2012 Weather, Climate, and Society,
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03108-x
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