Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2023

Open access notables

Included in this week's government/NGO section the World Meteorological Organization has released its annual retrospective of our previous year's climate situation, State of the Climate in 2022 (pdf):

“While greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the climate continues to change, populations worldwide continue to be gravely impacted by extreme weather and climate events. For example, in 2022, continuous drought in East Africa, record breaking rainfall in Pakistan and record-breaking heatwaves in China and Europe affected tens of millions, drove food insecurity, boosted mass migration, and cost billions of dollars in loss and damage.” — WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

Also in this week's government/NGO roundup, Wildfire Misinformation: Arson Claims Set the Climate Debate Ablaze (pdf), from Climate Action Against Disinformation. 

Via Geophysical Research Letters, a concerning report suggesting that our climate models are likely undershooting what we may well see in the not-so-distant future in Antarctica. In The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022, Blanchard-Wigglesworth et al. report:

The latter finding means that the interior East Antarctica icecap may see near-melting temperatures toward the end of this century. The authors report success with helping models at least approximate what reality has already delivered, but much needs to be done to gain confidence. 

To a jaded eye steeped in a thick soup of rubbishy climate propaganda, it seems as though there's something important missing in Why don’t Americans trust university researchers and why it matters for climate change, just published in PLOS Climate. Authors Alvarez, Debnath & Ebanks report results and analysis of a sizeable (N=2,096) representative sample of residents of the United States, seeking to determine what shapes public perceptions of the reliability of the academic community in the minds of the public when we think about climate science. Specifically, the survey elicits:

 i) How is trust in science associated with belief in the importance of climate change as a problem? ii) How is trust in science associated with beliefs about whether climate change is caused by humans or nature? iii) Who trusts university research centers? 

Findings are familiar, broadly replicating previous associations between trust in science and ideological alignments. With these results in hand, the authors offer suggestions:

First, more research must be done to understand who trusts or distrusts university research on climate change and who is persuadable. Second, more research is needed on climate communication framing and messaging. Third, additional research on appropriate messaging is necessary. Finally, we need to develop a culture of trust in climate research and how it is communicated across society.

What's missing? Accounting for widely broadcast and consumed synthetic climate bunk. Investigation and resultant suggestions of this kind are disordered in the same sense that attempting to inflate a leaking tire without seeing the puncture causing the leak will lead to enduring puzzlement over the tire's failure to obediently inflate and stay that way.

The beliefs of Americans about climate science and climate scientists are buffeted and battered by a concerted, multi-decade industrialized (and industrial) misinformation and disinformation campaign (Treen et al. 2020, see numerous others in cites therein). It's principally for this reason that Skeptical Science and our colleagues exist. Sampling without "why do you believe this" and/or "who told you so" arguably leads to a myopic, impoverished perspective of the public mental landscape. 

It seems reasonable to suppose that attempts to understand and foster trust in researchers involved in matters to do with climate must take into account active measures engaged in destroying that trust, or risk mysterious failure. The information in the authors' study is of course useful, but it leads to an all-too familiar conclusion, akin to a victim of a battering relationship chronically stuck at the stage of "what can -I- do to please the person beating me so they'll stop," even when cause is not personal to the victim. This itself is a framing of belief the climate science community might do well to keep in frame, lest communications become needlessly distorted in pursuit of impossible goals. 

The Journal of Enivronmental Psychology brings us Conspiracy theories and climate change: A systematic review, by Tam and Chan. As advertised, the authors collate previous research on the connection between conspiracy ideation and conspiratorial beliefs about climate change. Some studies take unfamiliar directions, such as finding penetration of typical partisan/ideological boundaries. With what's been accomplished gathered together, omissions become easier to see and Tam and Chan produce a list of promising avenues for gap-filling and further understanding. Some of their questions are in fact germane to our remarks above about Alvarez et al. The paper is not least a great way to get a holistic grip on this weird feature of climate cognition. 

139 articles in 63 journals by 861 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Regime Shift on Weddell Sea Continental Shelves with Local and Remote Physical and Biogeochemical Implications is Avoidable in a 2°C Scenario, Nissen et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0926.1

Atmospheric Latent Energy Transport Pathways into the Arctic and Their Connections to Sea Ice Loss during Winter over the Observational Period, Liang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0789.1

Atmospheric Response to a Collapse of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Mid-Range Future Climate Scenario: A Regime Shift in Northern Hemisphere Dynamics, Orbe et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0841.1

Changes in the Global Climate: Atmospheric Angular Momentum and Pacific Ocean Temperatures, Weickmann et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0322.1

Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation, Seip et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04617-8

On the Arctic Amplification of surface warming in a conceptual climate model, Goodwin & Williams, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena Open Access 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133880

Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification, Douville, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5

Strengthening cold wakes lead to decreasing trend of tropical cyclone rainfall rates relative to background environmental rainfall rates, Ma et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00460-w

Time-evolving radiative feedbacks in the historical period, Salvi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038984

Observations of climate change, effects

Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s, Parisien et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1

Analysis of marine heatwaves over the Bay of Bengal during 1982–2021, Kumar et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-39884-y

Anthropogenic Warming Had a Crucial Role in Triggering the Historic and Destructive Mediterranean Derecho in Summer 2022, González-Alemán et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0119.1

Are thunderstorms linked to the rapid Sea ice loss in the Arctic?, Saha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106988

Characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation in Ny Ålesund, Arctic, Radhakrishnan et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106989

Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands, Marta et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41063-6

Localized Strong Warming and Humidification Over Winter Japan Tied to Sea Ice Retreat, Tamura & Sato, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103522

Long-term changes in rainfall epochs and intensity patterns of Indian summer monsoon in changing climate, Subrahmanyam et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106997

Long-term observed changes of air temperature, relative humidity and vapour pressure deficit in Bolivia, 1950–2019, Fernández?Duque et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8226

Multiweek Prediction and Attribution of the Black Saturday Heatwave Event in Southeast Australia, Abhik et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0833.1

Spatial-temporal changes of compound temperature-humidity extremes in humid subtropical high-density cities: An observational study in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2020, He et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101669

Sub-Daily Extreme Precipitation and Its Linkage to Global Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau, Ma et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039062

The Effect of Greenhouse Gas–Induced Warming on the Impact of El Niño and La Niña Events on Daily Precipitation Extremes in the Boreal Cold Season, Sun et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0713.1

The emergence of a climate change signal in long-term Irish meteorological observations, Murphy et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100608

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022, Blanchard?Wrigglesworth et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104910

Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India, Bhattarai et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi1401

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Evaluating causal Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6, Galytska et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2022jd037978

Fewer, but More Intense, Future Tropical Storms Over the Ganges and Mekong Basins, Ali et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104973

Increase in Indian summer monsoon precipitation as a response to doubled atmospheric CO2: CMIP6 simulations and projections, Khardekar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04612-z

Increasing Risks of Future Compound Climate Extremes With Warming Over Global Land Masses, Wu et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003466

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Evaluating causal Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in CMIP6, Galytska et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2022jd037978

Long-term changes in the diurnal cycle of total cloud cover over the Tibetan Plateau, Deng et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106992

Multistability in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Reduced Order Model: Non-linear Temperature Equations, Hamilton et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4564

Old Dog, New Trick: Reservoir Computing Advances Machine Learning for Climate Modeling, Bretherton, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104174

On the Links Between Ice Nucleation, Cloud Phase, and Climate Sensitivity in CESM2, McGraw et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105053

Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review, Hummel et al., Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena Open Access 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133678

Cryosphere & climate change

Amplified Interannual Variation of the Summer Sea Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctic After the Late 1990s, Guo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104924

CRYO, Wright et al., Microscopy and Microanalysis Open Access pdf 10.1017/s1431927603440518

Amplified Interannual Variation of the Summer Sea Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctic After the Late 1990s, Guo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104924

Reconstructing 32 years (1989–2020) of annual glacier surface mass balance in Chandra Basin, Western Himalayas, India, Chandrasekharan & Ramsankaran, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02112-4

Sea level & climate change

Impact of sea level changes on future wave conditions along the coasts of western Europe, Chaigneau et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1123-2023

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications, Grant et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1359-2023

Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP, Venugopal et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40951-1

Global and zonal-mean hydrological response to early Eocene warmth, Cramwinckel et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022pa004542

Sea-level changes control coastal organic carbon burial in the southern East China Sea during the late MIS 3, Jin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104225

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Bees exposed to climate change are more sensitive to pesticides, Albacete et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16928

Changes in plant species dominance maintain community biomass production under warming and precipitation addition in temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia, China, Wan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109671

Coral Detection, Ranging, and Assessment (CDRA) algorithm-based automatic estimation of coral reef coverage, Jiang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106157

Drought intensity alters productivity, carbon allocation and plant nitrogen uptake in fast versus slow grassland communities, Oram et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14136

Dryland sensitivity to climate change and variability using nonlinear dynamics, Sasaki et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2305050120

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan, Katayama et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14175

Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable, Welch et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40849-y

Local site conditions reduce interspecific differences in climate sensitivity between native and non-native pines, Klisz et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109694

Mapping suitable habitats for globally endangered raptors in Kenya: Integrating climate factors and conservation planning, Ngila et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10443

Monitoring spring leaf phenology of individual trees in a temperate forest fragment with multi-scale satellite time series, Zhao et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113790

Phenotypic response to different predator strategies can be mediated by temperature, Cerini et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10474

Polar-facing slopes showed stronger greening trend than equatorial-facing slopes in Tibetan plateau grasslands, Yin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109698

Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly, Bennett et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01776-4

The implications of seasonal climatic effects for managing disturbance dependent populations under a changing climate, Hindle et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14143

The influence of winter snowpack on the use of summer rains in montane pine forests across the southwest U.S., Bailey et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007494

Using thermal imagery and changes in stem radius to assess water stress in two coniferous tree species, Dunkleberger et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109686

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C, Saintilan et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Arctic soil methane sink increases with drier conditions and higher ecosystem respiration, Voigt et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01785-3

Decadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates, Zeng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40964-w

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Ecosystem feedbacks constrain the effect of day-to-day weather variability on land–atmosphere carbon exchange, Rastetter et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16926

Fluxbots: A method for building, deploying, collecting and analyzing data from an array of inexpensive, autonomous soil carbon flux chambers, Forbes et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007451

Impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on the carbon dynamics of South American tropical forests, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01777-3

Influences of uncertainties in the STT flux on modeled tropospheric methane, Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039107

Methane producing and oxidizing microorganisms display a high resilience to drought in a Swedish hemi-boreal mire., White et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg007362

Organic-Matter Accumulation and Degradation in Holocene Permafrost Deposits Along a Central Alaska Hillslope, Marshall et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg007290

Quantifying exchangeable base cations in permafrost: a reserve of nutrients about to thaw, Mauclet et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-3891-2023

Role of data uncertainty when identifying important areas for biodiversity and carbon in boreal forests, Kujala et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01908-2

Seasonal environmental controls on soil CO2 dynamics at a high CO2 flux sites (Piton de la Fournaise and Mayotte volcanoes), Bénard et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007409

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A methanotrophic bacterium to enable methane removal for climate mitigation, He et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310046120

How to combat atmospheric carbon dioxide along with development activities? A mathematical model, Misra & Jha, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133861

The potential for mangrove and seagrass blue carbon in Small Island States, Friess, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101324


Low-Cost Polyanion-Type Cathode Materials for Sodium-Ion Battery, Song et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300102

Machine Learning-Accelerated Development of Perovskite Optoelectronics Toward Efficient Energy Harvesting and Conversion, Chen et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300157

The potential of palm bioenergy in achieving Malaysia's renewable energy target and climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement, Gourich et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101296

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate justice beyond intergenerational conflict: youth climate activism in South Korea, Choi, Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01374-5

Conspiracy theories and climate change: A systematic review, Tam & Chan, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102129

Media coverage of climate change, eco-anxiety and pro-environmental behavior: Experimental evidence and the resilience paradox, Shao & Yu, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102130

Perceived impacts of the Fridays for Future climate movement on environmental concern and behaviour in Switzerland, Fritz et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01348-7

Rainbows of Comfort in Rising Seas: How Literalist Bible Interpretations Impact Climate Change Communication in the Marshall Islands, Simonelli & Novalski, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0117.1

Typologies of actionable climate information and its use, Jagannathan et al., SSRN Electronic Journal 10.2139/ssrn.4243312

Why don’t Americans trust university researchers and why it matters for climate change, Alvarez et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Accelerating subnational deforestation and forest degradation reduction efforts (REDD+): need for recognition of instrumental and relational value interactions, Do & van Noordwijk, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101330

Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia, Appelt et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02111-5

Does risk preference influence farm level adaptation strategies? – Survey evidence from Denmark, Nainggolan et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10077-2

Fishery-based adaption to climate change: the case of migratory species flathead grey mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) in Taiwan Strait, Northwestern Pacific, Lee et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15788

Projecting the effect of climate change on planting date and cultivar choice for South African dryland maize production, Mangani et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109695

Promoting net-zero economy through climate-smart agriculture: transition towards sustainability, Sarker et al., Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01379-0

Rainfall shocks and inequality have heterogeneous effects on farmers' seed purchase decisions in East Africa, Makate et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100556

Spatial distribution of indigenous climate indicator development for rural smallholder farmers in Nkomazi local municipality, South Africa, Ubisi et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03536-x

The Great Climate Mitigation Potential of Cropland Ecosystem Management in China, Zheng et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003586

Unpacking the invisible complex realities: intersections of gender and marital status in determining the intrinsic vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in Northwestern Ethiopia, Yimam & Holvoet, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2246038

“Even the goats feel the heat:” gender, livestock rearing, rangeland cultivation, and climate change adaptation in Tunisia, Najjar & Baruah, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2023.2253773

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic warming reduces the likelihood of drought-breaking extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia, Holgate et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100607

Contribution rates of climate variables to the change in reference evapotranspiration in northern Thailand from 1991 to 2019, Supriyasilp & Suwanlertcharoen, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8227

Investigation of sustainable water consumption behavior within the framework of value belief norm, Karaka?, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03819-4

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin, Shafeeque et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04621-y

Spatiotemporal distribution and trend analyses of atmospheric rivers affecting British Columbia's Nechako Watershed, Sobral & Déry, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8230

Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India, Bhattarai et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi1401

Climate change economics

A critical review of green growth indicators in G7 economies from 1990 to 2019, Herman et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01397-y

Climate-changed development: organizing climate risk and response through an economic growth lens, Friedman, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101332

Greening the environment: do climate-related development finances and renewable energy consumption matter? An African tale, Mumuni & Hamadjoda Lefe, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2251934

Macroeconomic analysis of a new green hydrogen industry using Input-Output analysis: The case of Switzerland, Gupta et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113768

Transformative finance for climate-resilient development, Panda, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101327

Climate change and the circular economy

A green manufacturer–retailer circular economic production model with carbon emissions and waste control, Sahadevan & Mishra, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03805-w

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A decomposition and decoupling analysis for carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from OECD countries, Magazzino et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03824-7

An accounting framework for implementing India’s NDCs and reporting the capacity building needs in the context of the Paris rulebook, Prusty et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2247388

Can carbon market policies achieve a “point-to-surface” effect?—Quasi-experimental evidence from China, Yu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113803

Carbon tax ethics, Derani, The Routledge Handbook of Applied Climate Change Ethics 10.4324/9781003039860-29

Framing energy-efficiency programs: A survey experiment, Chen, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113776

Harnessing renewable energy technologies for energy independence within Zimbabwean tourism industry: A pathway towards sustainability, Chiwaridzo, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101301

Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40670-7

Low-carbon policy and industrial structure upgrading: Based on the perspective of strategic interaction among local governments, Pan et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113794

Monitoring, evaluation and learning requirements for climate-resilient development pathways, Sparkes & Werners, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101329

Positive synergy or negative synergy: An assessment of the carbon emission reduction effect of renewable energy policy mixes on China's power sector, , Translation and Translanguaging in Multilingual Contexts Open Access 10.1075/ttmc.5.1

Present generation’s negotiators realize their interests at the cost of future generations, van Treek et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102126

The enablers, opportunities and challenges of electric vehicle adoption in Qatar: A systematic review of the literature and assessment of progress toward transportation transformation targets, Al-Shaiba et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000271

Unraveling the production of ignorance in climate policymaking: The imperative of a decolonial feminist intervention for transformation, Arora-Jonsson & Wahlström, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103564

Who’s afraid of more ambitious climate policy? How distributional implications shape policy support and compensatory preferences, Schaffer, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2247818

Climate change impacts on human health

Heat-health governance in a cool nation: A case study of Scotland, Wan et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.05.019

Nighttime ambient temperature and sleep in community-dwelling older adult, Baniassadi et al., Science of The Total Environment 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165623

Climate change & geopolitics

Policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks and China’s carbon neutralization, Liu & Lü, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2251929

Climate change impacts on human culture

How Much Will Climate Change Reduce Productivity in a High-Technology Supply Chain? Evidence from Silicon Wafer Manufacturing, Chen et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00803-4


Climate change, water availability, and the burden of rural women’s triple role in Muyuka, Cameroon, Fonjong & Zama, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102709

Just Transition on air quality governance: a case study of heavy-duty diesel truck protests in Taiwan, Walther & Chou, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01311-6

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A need for actionable climate projections across the Global South, Mishra et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01778-2

Climate genomics—Geoscientists, ecologists, and geneticists must reinforce their collaborations to confront climate change, Caccavo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16924

Climate-Smart Forestry: Promise and risks for forests, society, and climate, Cooper & MacFarlane, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000212

How to fuel an energy transition with ecologically responsible mining, Sonter et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2307006120

Landscape management is urgently needed to address the rise of megafires in South America, Armenteras & de la Barrera, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00964-6

National Colloquium for Advances in Weather and Climate Prediction and Climate Change Projection over South Asia: Applications in Water and Agriculture Sectors, Kumar et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0128.1

Old Dog, New Trick: Reservoir Computing Advances Machine Learning for Climate Modeling, Bretherton, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104174

Reflecting on AR6, Wake, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01788-0

Three institutional pathways to envision the future of the IPCC, Asayama et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01780-8

Book reviews

Joëlle Gergis. Humanity’s moment: a climate scientist’s case for hope, Silverman, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00856-3

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

China’s new coal power spree continues as more provinces jump on the bandwagon, Champenois et al., Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

The coal power plant permitting spree that started in the summer of 2022 in China has continued in the first half of 2023 and into July. From January to June, construction was started on 37 GW (gigawatts) of new coal power capacity, 52 GW was permitted of which 10 GW already moved into construction, whereas 41 GW of new projects were announced and 8 GW of previously shelved projects were revived. All of these parts of the project pipeline are currently running at a pace of more than one coal power plant per week. Most of the new projects do not meet the central government’s requirements for permitting new coal: the provinces building most new coal are not using it to support a correspondingly large buildout of clean energy; the majority of projects are in provinces that have no shortage of generating capacity to meet demand peaks; and most new project locations already have more than enough coal power to support existing and planned wind and solar capacity. This shows that there is no effective enforcement of the policies limiting new project permitting.

EU fossil generation hits record low as demand falls, Matt Ewen and Sarah Brown, Ember

The authors analyze changes in Europe’s power sector from January to June 2023 to measure the progress of its' clean energy transition. They found that EU power demand fell by 5% year on year in the first half of 2023. EU fossil fuel generation fell by nearly a fifth in the first half of 2023. Seventeen EU countries had record renewable generation from January to June.

Air Quality Life Index 2023, Annual Update, Michael Greenstone and Christa Hasenkopf, Energy Policy Institute, University of Chicago

Air pollution is the greatest external threat to human life expectancy on the planet. The AQLI’s latest data reveals that permanently reducing global PM2.5 air pollution to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline would add 2.3 years to average human life expectancy—or a combined 17.8 billion life years saved. The impact of PM2.5 on global life expectancy is comparable to that of smoking, more than 3 times that of alcohol use and unsafe water, more than 5 times that of transport injuries like car crashes, and more than 7 times that of HIV/AIDS.

Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States, Jaramillo et al., International Monetary Fund

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the authors find that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the effect of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing, and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration.

Integration of Hybrids into Wholesale Power Markets, Singhal et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

With growing commercial activity around utility-scale hybrid storage projects in the United States, independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) are faced with making decisions on how to represent such emerging technology resources in the market clearing software through the definition of hybrid resource participation models. System operators are facing increasing uncertainties around efficient and reliable ways to operate these resources given the ambiguity around their impacts, particularly when high levels of hybrid resources are present. The authors evaluate and compare the performance implications of different hybrid resource participation models in a realistic wholesale electricity market setting with significant deployment of hybrid resources and provide the industry with metrics that quantify the advantages and disadvantages of different participation options using realistic electricity market simulations. The different participation models are compared in terms of the impact on the reliability of the overall system, the ability of the market to access the full capabilities of hybrid resources as measured by economic efficiency, and asset profitability.

X-change: Electricity. On track for net zero, Bond et al., RMI

The authors make the case that solar and wind generation are on an exponential path which will lead to disruption of the electricity sector this decade. Solar, wind, and batteries have been following a typical path for new technology. Learning curves lead to falling prices lead to rapid growth in new capacity, which leads to change in the generation mix on an S-curve. New solar and battery capacity, policy targets, the momentum of change, and the logic of S-curves all point to continued exponential growth in solar and wind generation for the rest of this decade at 15%–20% a year. Along with learning curves, superior economics, energy security, climate necessity, and local pollution remain a powerful combination for change in the global electricity sector. Furthermore, this analysis shows that solar power, the cheapest energy source in history, will halve in price by 2030. Despite those who say insurmountable barriers to the energy transition are everywhere, growth keeps happening. While barriers are specific and local, solutions are generic and global and will continue to overwhelm resistance to change. As a result, fast growth will lead to a tripling in solar and wind generation by 2030 while faster growth will mean a quadrupling in generation, to produce more than 14,000 terawatt hours (TWh) and overtake fossil fuel supply.

Wildfire Misinformation: Arson Claims Set the Climate Debate Ablaze, Climate Action Against Disinformation

Whenever wildfires burn, the smoke clouds of misinformation rise. Social media is central to the spread of misinformation or disinformation which can include fake arson claims during wildfire events. To gain deeper insight into earlier wildfire incidents the authors used topic modeling - a computational technique to detect patterns of speech in large datasets - and included data across four social media platforms including Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Reddit. The findings cover a ‘top layer’ of analysis that reflects broad trends but cannot serve to quantify scale. The author's analysis highlights which patterns of speech, referred to as ‘topics,’ the model identified across all three of these events, and which seem to be specific to one case. For example, while human activity can play a significant role in starting wildfires, a singular focus on arson as the sole cause is misleading and obscures the role of carelessness or lightning strikes. More importantly, it obscures the fact that dry and hot conditions which are becoming more likely with climate change, are a key factor in whether human action or weather events lead to major wildfires.

Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Global greenhouse gas emissions, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Government of Canada

The release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their increasing concentration in the atmosphere is leading to a changing climate. This change has an effect on the environment, human health, and the economy. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from a few years to thousands of years. As such, they have a worldwide effect, no matter where they were first emitted. This indicator highlights GHG emissions caused by human activity around the world. The latest year reported (2020) coincides with the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic which affected a wide range of economic sectors, including the energy and transport sectors. Between 2005 and 2020, global GHG emissions increased by 18.2%, from 39 004 to 46 121 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq). In 2020, the highest emitting country was China with 12 943 Mt CO2 eq, or 28.1% of global GHG emissions. Since 2005, emissions from China increased by 78.2%. Canada's emissions in 2020 reached 678 Mt CO2 eq, which made up 1.5% of global GHG emissions.

State of the Climate in Africa 2022, World Meteorological Organization

Africa is responsible for only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions but is suffering disproportionately from climate change. This is harming food security, ecosystems, and economies, fueling displacement and migration, and worsening the threat of conflict over dwindling resources. THe authors show that the rate of temperature increase in Africa has accelerated in recent decades, with weather- and climate-related hazards becoming more severe. And yet financing for climate adaptation is only a drop in the ocean of what is needed. More than 110 million people on the continent were directly affected by weather, climate, and water-related hazards in 2022, causing more than US$ 8.5 billion in economic damages. There were a reported 5,000 fatalities, of which 48% were associated with drought and 43% were associated with flooding. But the true toll is likely to be much higher because of under-reporting.

State of the Climate in 2022, Blunden et al., American Meteorological Society

Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts of the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases. In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 7 September, 2023

Creative Commons License The Skeptical Science website by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.