Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.
Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.
Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.
A Trojan horse for climate policy: Assessing carbon lock-ins through the Carbon Capture and Storage-Hydrogen-Nexus in Europe, Faber et al., Energy Research & Social Science:
The global energy landscape is entrenched in fossil fuels, shaping modern life profoundly. Germany, a prominent example, grapples with transitioning from its fossil-fuelled infrastructure despite governmental support for decarbonization. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen appear as crucial tools in this transition. A recent partnership between Germany and Norway seeks to leverage Norway's CCS and hydrogen expertise to aid Germany's decarbonization efforts. However, CCS faces criticism for potential mitigation deterrence and carbon lock-ins, perpetuating fossil fuel reliance. This study critically analyses the Norwegian-German CCS-Hydrogen-Nexus, focusing on potential carbon lock-ins. By examining specific projects, institutional frameworks, and industry involvement, we aim to elucidate the partnership's implications for carbon lock-ins. This critical case holds significance for Europe's largest economy and offers insights applicable to CCS technology globally. We find that the current setup perpetuates existing carbon lock-ins both in Germany and Norway. Central problems are the interchangeability of blue and green hydrogen, asset specificity of pipeline and pumping infrastructure and the central role which actors from the fossil fuel industry play in the rollout of the CCS-Hydrogen-Nexus. Our concern is that this approach might entrench the energy system in a socially unjust state. EU policy on blue hydrogen emerged as a factor that helps to avoid carbon lock-ins.
Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico, Wilson et al., Science Advances:
Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3–7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.
Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions, Sun et al., Nature Communications:
Tourism has a critical role to play in global carbon emissions pathway. This study estimates the global tourism carbon footprint and identifies the key drivers using environmentally extended input-output modelling. The results indicate that global tourism emissions grew 3.5% p.a. between 2009-2019, double that of the worldwide economy, reaching 5.2 Gt CO2-e or 8.8% of total global GHG emissions in 2019. The primary drivers of emissions growth are slow technology efficiency gains (0.3% p.a.) combined with sustained high growth in tourism demand (3.8% p.a. in constant 2009 prices). Tourism emissions are associated with alarming distributional inequalities. Under both destination- and resident-based accounting, the twenty highest-emitting countries contribute three-quarters of the global footprint. The disparity in per-capita tourism emissions between high- and low-income nations now exceeds two orders of magnitude. National tourism decarbonisation strategies will require demand volume thresholds to be defined to align global tourism with the Paris Agreement.
From this week's government/NGO section:
How Americans View Climate Change and Policies to Address the Issue, Brian Kennedy and Alec Tyson, Pew Research Center
Americans are split over the economic impact of climate policies. Large businesses and corporations are seen as doing too little on climate change. There is broad support for policies to address climate change. There is widespread frustration with political disagreement over climate change. 64% say climate change currently affects their local community either a great deal or some. Relatively few expect to make major sacrifices in their lifetime due to climate change
Transboundary adaption to climate change: governing flows of water, energy, food and people, Nicholas Simpson and Portia Williams, Overseas Development Institute
Climate change alters transboundary flows that are essential for people and nature, including flows of water, people, energy, and food. Transboundary adaptation can reduce risks by focusing interventions at the origin or source of the climate change impact, along transmission channels, and in the destination country or region. Anticipating, planning for, and managing flows across geographic and sectoral boundaries builds resilience across interconnected systems and populations. Transboundary adaptation is strengthened and more effective when using a nexus approach, which considers how interconnected flows such as hydropower changes affect irrigation and/or energy needs. Greater recognition of governance of transboundary flows within adaptation planning can better identify and manage systemic vulnerabilities that escalate climate change risk. Strengthening governance frameworks to improve cross-border cooperation must be done in conjunction with addressing critical dimensions of vulnerability and promoting the integrated management of shared resources.
Physical science of climate change, effects
A pause in the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since the early 2010s, Lee et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54903-w
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Nonlinear Radiative Response to Patterned Global Warming due to Convection Aggregation and Nonlinear Tropical Dynamics, Quan et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0539.1
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo, Goessling et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adq7280
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping, Yoshioka et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
East shift of Canada severe hail activities in a changing climate, Cao, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107867
Long-Term Changes in the Relative Humidity in Poland in 1966–2020, Krawczyk, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8706
Nordic boreo-arctic lands under rapid climatic change: A review of recent and future trends and extreme events, Bjerke et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.105012
Spatiotemporal variation of intra-urban heat and heatwaves across Greater Sydney, Australia, Pfautsch et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100741
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
PRODEM: Annual summer DEMs (2019–present) of the marginal areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Winstrup et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2023-224
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Assessment of Basin-Scale Concurrent Dry and Wet Extreme Dynamics Under Multimodel CORDEX Climate Scenarios, Swain et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8677
Changes in Clouds and the Tropical Circulation in Global Kilometer-Scale Simulations under Different Warming Patterns, Tomassini, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0068.1
Climate Projection of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime in the Western North Pacific Basin, Vu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0131.1
Data-Driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization, Diffenbaugh & Barnes Barnes, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl111832
Early-Stage Extratropical Cyclones' Mechanisms Over South America: RCM Added Value and Future Changes in a Warmer Planet, Gramcianinov et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8683
Future Derecho Potential in the United States, Kaminski et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0633.1
Long-Term Changes in Salinity in the South China Sea Due To Anthropogenic Forcing, Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc020888
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Absence of Aerosol Indirect Effect Dependence on Background Climate State in NCAR CESM2, White et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0755.1
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?, Mülmenstädt et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-13633-2024
Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction, Govett et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0220.1
Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes, Van de Vyver, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
On the Extrapolation of Generative Adversarial Networks for Downscaling Precipitation Extremes in Warmer Climates, Rampal et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl112492
Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity, Swaminathan et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef004901
Cryosphere & climate change
Cold Season Cloud Response to Sea Ice Loss in the Arctic, Liu & Key, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0394.1
Enhanced warming of European mountain permafrost in the early 21st century, Noetzli et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54831-9
Evidence of radionuclide fractionation due to meltwater percolation in a temperate glacier, Di Stefano et al., Open Access 10.5194/tc-2023-108
Future Freshwater Fluxes From the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Coulon et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111250
Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard, Steffensen Schmidt et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1409
Sea level & climate change
A Link Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and North Atlantic Subtropical Ocean Heat Content, Steinberg et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021425
Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale, Leung et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005523
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636
Response of Coastal California Hydroclimate to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Zhang et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2023-89
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate change extinctions, Urban, Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adp4461
Climate Extremes in Consecutive Years Impacted the Number and Fate of Duck Nests on Great Salt Lake Marshes, Conover & Bell, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70630
Cumulative Heat Stress in Fluctuating Temperatures and Implications for the Distribution of Freshwater Fish, Rezende & Carter, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17623
Decline in diversity of tropical soil fauna under experimental warming, Szczygie? et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.2193
Does Climate Change Pose a Threat to the Guild Mimicry System of Australian Orchids?, Kolanowska & Scaccabarozzi, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70633
Effects of heat, elevated vapor pressure deficits and growing season length on growth trends of European beech, Leuschner & Bat-Enerel, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1489081
Evaluation of global warming effects on juvenile rainbow trout: focus on immunohistochemistry and osmoregulation, ALKAN et al., Fish Physiology and Biochemistry 10.1007/s10695-024-01431-5
Even protected seaweeds must face a warming ocean: Sea surface temperatures trigger tissue bleaching and breakdown in the unique giant Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), Gibbons et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106907
High- and low-temperature stress responses of Porites lutea from the relatively high-latitude region of the South China Sea, Huang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106858
Impacts of Climate Change Conditions on the Potential Distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis and Its Host Plants, Salix babylonica and Salix matsudana, in China, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70692
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864
Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally, Chen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3
Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855
Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Trends in the Arctic at the Local, Regional, and Pan-Arctic Scales (1998–2022), Serra?Pompei & Dutkiewicz, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110454
Predicting climate change impacts on distribution and conservation of critically endangered Picea neoveitchii using MaxEnt, Xue et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1472857
Quantitative assessment of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Zhao & Qie, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1508433
Rapid Adaption but Genetic Diversity Loss of a Globally Distributed Diatom in the Warmer Ocean, Cheng et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17602
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
Shifts in Climatic Limitations on Global Vegetation Productivity Unveiled by Shapley Additive Explanation: Reduced Temperature but Increased Water Limitations, Xie et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008354
Some coral reef communities may degrade and change but persist, Knowlton, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2422158121
The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853
Vulnerability of Global Pine Forestry's Carbon Sink to an Invasive Pathogen–Vector System, Zhou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17614
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Abrupt thaw and its effects on permafrost carbon emissions in the Tibetan Plateau: A remote sensing and modeling perspective, Yi et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.105020
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
Anthropogenic Perturbations Complicated the Downstream Greenhouse Gas Dynamics of a Large Subtropical Reservoir, Wan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008408
Drivers and Annual Totals of Methane Emissions From Dutch Peatlands, Buzacott et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17590
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget, De Sisto & MacDougall MacDougall, Open Access 10.5194/bg-2023-96
GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598
Interactive effects of management and temperature anomalies on CO2 fluxes recorded over 18 years in a temperate upland grassland system, Winck et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110343
Methane leakage through the sulfate–methane transition zone of the Baltic seabed, Lapham et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01594-z
Organoclay flocculation as a pathway to export carbon from the sea surface, Sharma et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-79912-z
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Soil Organic Carbon Increases With Decreasing Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency During Vegetation Restoration, Shi et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17616
Source-to-Sink Pathways of Dissolved Organic Carbon in the River-Estuary-Ocean Continuum: A Modeling Investigation, Yao et al., Open Access 10.5194/bg-2024-2
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Tracer-based Rapid Anthropogenic Carbon Estimation (TRACE), Carter et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-560
Using Digital Camera and Eddy Covariance Data to Track Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in the Badain Jaran Desert, Meng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008123
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
Attention and positive sentiments towards carbon dioxide removal have grown on social media over the past decade, Repke et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01914-6
Editorial: Regeneration mechanisms and tradeoffs of ecosystem function after drastic environmental changes, Kang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1531956
Estimating soil carbon sequestration with woody and bamboo biochar using the Japanese Industrial Standard (JIS) M 8812, Kurimoto et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2438228
Productive in disagreement: stakeholder deliberation insights on carbon dioxide removal in Germany, Apergi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1465613
Decarbonization
Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate, Lipari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6
Getting stakeholders aboard for offshore wind decommissioning: A qualitative study on end-of-life challenges in Belgium, Vetters et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103873
Harnessing solar PV potential for decarbonization in Nepal: A GIS based assessment of ground-mounted, rooftop, and agrivoltaic solar systems for Nepal, Bhatta et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101618
“Rural exploitation” in solar energy development? A field survey experiment in South Korea on solar energy support in rural areas, Ko, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103837
Geoengineering climate
Plankton food web structure and productivity under ocean alkalinity enhancement, Sánchez et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado0264
The Community-Based Road to CMIP7 in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Visioni et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0274.1
Climate change communications & cognition
Digital Climate Rhetoric and the Corrupted Scientist Archetype, Bloomfield et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2436522
Student Interest Drives Modernization of Climate Science Curriculum: Engaging with Community Partners outside the Classroom, Dacic et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0007.1
The role of trait mindfulness in moderating climate distress during wildfire season, Guan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000524
Three profiles of Australian climate change activism have both unique and overlapping motivators and barriers, Whitson et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01871-0
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Achieving the paris agreement goals by transitioning to low-emissions food systems: A comprehensive review of countries’ actions, Amahnui et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103968
Carbon removal potentials in agricultural systems – participatory scenario modelling with farmers in Sweden, Rehn et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2436872
Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO2 efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287
Large ensemble simulations indicate increases in spatial compounding of droughts and hot extremes across multiple croplands in China, Lv et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104670
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Nitrogen Application Stimulates Methane Emissions, Fang, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17621
Seasonal patterns of CO2 exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324
Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Cropland Soil Organic Carbon Changes From Space, Broeg et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17608
The Impacts of Warming on Shallow and Deep-Water Fisheries in New Zealand, Datta et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004857
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Constrained Precipitation Extremes Reveal Unequal Future Socioeconomic Exposure, Liu et al., Earth's Future 10.1029/2024ef004825
Diverging Projections of Future Droughts in High-End Climate Scenarios for Different Potential Evapotranspiration Methods: A National-Scale Assessment for Poland, Marcinkowski et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8674
Evaluation of the Mountain Hydroclimate across the Western United States in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Models, Adhikari et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-24-0063.1
Impacts of climate trends on the heavy precipitation event associated with Typhoon Doksuri in Northern China, Yan et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107816
Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend, Zhuang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111741
Climate change economics
Addressing climate risks through fiscal policy in emerging and developing economies: What do we know and what lies ahead?, D'Orazio, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103852
Climate change and human economic misery in West Africa: evidence from a tail-dependence model, Iliyasu & Mamman, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2437123
Financing European Union's buildings' decarbonisation strategy, Keliauskaite et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114437
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act: Climate policy as economic crisis response, Bang, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2437886
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A Trojan horse for climate policy: Assessing carbon lock-ins through the Carbon Capture and Storage-Hydrogen-Nexus in Europe, Faber et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103881
Analyzing the carbon pricing-leakage nexus through structural gravity estimation, Habibi, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114411
Collaborative event ethnography of the UNFCCC Process: power and (in)justice in global climate governance arenas, Hite et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2439378
Exploring the dynamics of socio-technical transitions: Advancing grid-connected wind and solar energy adoption in Nigeria, Adedokun et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103850
How does land resource mismatch affect urban energy low-carbon transition?, Zhang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102236
Policy interactions and electricity generation sector CO2 emissions: A quasi-experimental analysis, Tello, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114434
Public perceptions of heat decarbonisation in Great Britain: Awareness, values and the social circle effect, Smith et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103844
Stumbling blocks for solar social enterprises: Unveiling the barriers facing enterprises serving the base of the pyramid solar market in Tanzania, Malima et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103847
The role of regional grid connectivity and cooperation for Decarbonisation: A case study of South and South East Asia, Parikh & Saini, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101606
When does symbolism matter most? Exploring electric vehicle adoption intent through surveys in two United States cities, Herziger et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103818
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Artificial intelligence in support of weather warnings and climate adaptation, Neset et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100673
Citizen Engagement Practices That Promote Justice, Mutual Learning, and Collaboration in Situated Climate Adaptation Initiatives, Pickard & Baulenas, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0172.1
Leveraging climate resilience capacities by (un)learning from transdisciplinary research projects, Pedde et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100675
Multi-stakeholder perspectives on climate gentrification in Miami-Dade, Florida, Matteucci et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102238
Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa, Cottier, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1384295
Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5
The role of governance in limits to adaptation, Juhola & Malmström , Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101492
Understanding the Impacts of Arctic Climate Change Through the Lens of Political Ecology, Malik & Ford, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.927
Climate change impacts on human health
Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico, Wilson et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq3367
Making the case for community involvement in research on climate and health: opportunities and lessons, Black et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1456417
Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate-Friendly Vacations and Tourism, Ballantyne et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.929
Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54582-7
Visitor willingness to pay for decarbonizing tourism: Supporting a net-zero transition in Nusa Penida, Indonesia, Koko Suryawan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101628
Warm Air Temperatures Generate Home Runs, Sato & Kohyama, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0139.1
Other Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate geroscience: the case for ‘wisdom-inquiry’ science, Farrelly, Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2024.0426
Editorial: Sustainable forest management under climate change conditions — A focus on biodiversity conservation and forest restoration, Sarkissian & Kutia, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1533425
Future Priorities for Observing the Dynamics of the Southern Ocean, Wilson et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0254.1
Lessons from paleoclimates for recent and future climate change: opportunities and insights, Kageyama et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1511997
Understanding Tropical Cyclones in the Anthropocene: Physics, Simulations, and Attribution, Faranda et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0252.1
Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2024 Update, Forrester et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors describe income, demographics, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 4.1 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2023, representing 87% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers.
The People Always Pay. Tax Breaks Force Gulf Communities to Subsidize the LNG Industry, Dorner et al., Sierra Club
The authors review the major tax abatements – also referred to as tax exemptions, tax breaks, and corporate subsidies – from which the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry benefits in Louisiana and Texas. Informed by interviews with community members living on the frontlines of the LNG industry’s buildout, this report contextualizes the industry’s weak promises of jobs and investment and explores how forgone tax revenue could be better spent in service of communities. Massive tax exemptions deprive local communities of sorely needed funds for decades, all while subsidizing harmful industrial development. Everyone deserves to breathe clean air, raise children without respiratory issues, and experience the benefits of economic development from non-polluting industries that pay their fair share of taxes.
U.S. Solar Cell Production Resumes for First Time Since 2019, as Solar Module Manufacturing Sets Record in Q3, Solar Energy Industries Association
The United States added a record-breaking 9.3 gigawatts (GW) of new solar module manufacturing capacity in Q3 2024. At full capacity, U.S. solar module factories can produce enough to meet nearly all demand for solar in the United States. Five new or expanded factories in Alabama, Florida, Ohio, and Texas bring the total U.S. solar module manufacturing capacity to nearly 40 GW. Solar cell manufacturing resumed in Q3 as silicon cells were manufactured in the United States for the first time since 2019, marking a pivotal moment for America’s surging solar manufacturing sector.
Economics of drought. Investing in nature-based solutions for drought resilience – Proaction pays, Thomas et al, UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Economics of Land Degradation Initiative and United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health
Drought is one of the costliest and most pressing threats to societies and economies affecting every continent around the globe and particularly drylands. Already today, droughts affect over 1.8 billion people annually hitting especially women and children and the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. The authors make the economic case for nature-based solutions (NBS) as part of a proactive approach to drought management. It presents evidence for NbS costs and benefits to show that proactive action pays and elaborates transformational pathways to mobilize both public and private investment, strengthen necessary enabling environments, and create scalable business cases for NbS to drought.
Transboundary adaption to climate change: governing flows of water, energy, food and people, Nicholas Simpson and Portia Williams, Overseas Development Institute
Climate change alters transboundary flows that are essential for people and nature, including flows of water, people, energy, and food. Transboundary adaptation can reduce risks by focusing interventions at the origin or source of the climate change impact, along transmission channels, and in the destination country or region. Anticipating, planning for, and managing flows across geographic and sectoral boundaries builds resilience across interconnected systems and populations. Transboundary adaptation is strengthened and more effective when using a nexus approach, which considers how interconnected flows such as hydropower changes affect irrigation and/or energy needs. Greater recognition of governance of transboundary flows within adaptation planning can better identify and manage systemic vulnerabilities that escalate climate change risk. Strengthening governance frameworks to improve cross-border cooperation must be done in conjunction with addressing critical dimensions of vulnerability and promoting the integrated management of shared resources.
Strategic Industries Surging: Driving US Power Demand, Wilson et al., Grid Strategies
Over the past two years, the 5-year load growth forecast has increased by almost a factor of five, from 23 GW to 128 GW. The official nationwide forecast of electricity demand shot up from 2.8% to 8.2% growth over the next five years to 66 GW through 2029 — but with an additional 61 GW of growth in preliminary updates, nationwide electric demand is forecast to increase by 15.8% by 2029. The main drivers are investment in data centers and manufacturing. High-end sector forecasts suggest current load forecasts may not have caught up with growth. Data center growth forecasts vary, with some tech industry analysts anticipating growth of 65 GW, while updated utility forecasts suggest over 90 GW. Manufacturing demand forecasts are unavailable – indicators suggest up to 20 GW growth. Other sources of load growth, including electrification, could be another 20 GW.
Renewable Energy in Farming Communities, 89 Degrees East
Support for renewable energy projects on farmland is strong. Among farmers that support is deeply qualified. Most farmers offered support for these projects, so long as they delivered real benefits to both them and their community. Farmers and community members see income diversification for farmers - especially in hard times - to be a key benefit of these projects. Almost 7 in 10 (69%) agree that during periods of drought or hard times, payments from renewable energy projects provide farmers with steady income, supporting small businesses and maintaining local jobs.
GenCost 2024-25 Consultation draft, Graham et al., Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
GenCost projects the cost of electricity generation and storage for a wide range of technologies up to the year 2050 for Australia. The authors found that while inflationary pressures on freight and raw materials are easing, their impacts on specific technologies remain mixed. Solar PV and batteries are recovering the fastest from the recent global inflationary cycle, with solar PV capital costs dropping 8 percent for the second year and battery costs experiencing a 20 percent cost reduction. Onshore wind costs have increased by 2 percent, down from an 8 percent rise last year, reflecting ongoing but moderated equipment and installation expenses.
Significant Energy Storage Capacity Additions Keep Costs Low and Power Reliable in Texas, American Clean Power
The authors show that the recent addition of 5 gigawatts (GW) of energy storage in Texas not only enhanced grid reliability, but also helped keep electricity costs down for consumers—even during record demand and extreme weather events in 2024. By releasing stored energy when the grid needed it most, battery systems helped avert conservation appeals and provided an estimated $750 million in cost savings for Texans.
Solar radiation modification , Group of Chief Scientific Advisors, European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation
Solar radiation modification’ is an umbrella term for proposed technologies that would reflect more sunlight into space, or allow more infrared radiation to escape into space, thereby creating a net cooling effect on the Earth’s climate. This scientific opinion by the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors (GCSA) examines how the EU can address the risks and opportunities associated with research on solar radiation modification and its potential deployment. It also presents the possible options for a governance system for research and potential deployment, considering different solar radiation modification technologies and their scale. This opinion is published in the context of the Scientific Advice Mechanism (SAM) which provides independent scientific evidence and policy recommendations to the European institutions by request of the College of Commissioners.
How Americans View Climate Change and Policies to Address the Issue, Brian Kennedy and Alec Tyson, Pew Research Center
Americans are split over the economic impact of climate policies. Large businesses and corporations are seen as doing too little on climate change. There is broad support for policies to address climate change. There is widespread frustration with political disagreement over climate change. 64% say climate change currently affects their local community either a great deal or some. Relatively few expect to make major sacrifices in their lifetime due to climate change
Building in resilience. Weather-proofing European construction in a changing climate, Aggreko
The construction industry continues to make significant cuts to its emissions to minimize the worst effects of climate change. But changing weather patterns and extreme weather events are now a reality for the sector, increasing the chance of project delays, and risk to colleagues working on site.
State of Climate Tech 2024, Cox et al., PwC
Funding for climate tech start-ups is down. But patient investors are finding opportunities in ventures that are harnessing AI, working on climate adaptation and pioneering energy solutions. Three years after climate tech investing’s peak, investors and start-ups are finding it ever tougher to make deals. In the 12 months through September 2024, capital flows and transaction volume continued to trend downwards, dropping below levels recorded in 2019, before the market had taken off. Yet the past year also brought opportunities for savvy investors. Climate tech investment held up strongly in the United States, buoyed by the Inflation Reduction Act and other policy measures. Start-ups operating in the energy sector increased their share of climate tech funding. And AI-centred climate ventures raised US$1 billion more in the first three quarters of 2024 than they did in all of 2023, as investors recognised AI’s power to drive productivity and efficiency improvements of all kinds. Technology for climate adaptation and resilience stood out as a theme, featuring in more than one-quarter (28%) of climate tech deals.
Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S, Baik et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Clean energy resources that are located behind the meter have the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Solar plus storage systems (PVESS) are clean energy resources that can supply backup power without requiring fuel resupply or increasing local emissions. The authors examine the regional value of PVESS for resilience by calculating a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) that considers the annual resiliency benefits of PVESS and the annualized cost of the investment. In addition, they estimate the expected technical mitigation potential of PVESS systems at the county-level to these expected events, and characterize the customer interruption costs by determining the value of lost load at the state level.
Consumer Impacts of Clean Energy: Renewable Energy, Mark Bolinger and Natalie Frick, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors discuss some of the possible consumer benefits of utility-scale and behind-the-meter renewable energy, with a focus on how these resources can contribute to a low-cost electricity system. It begins with a literature review of modeled impacts, primarily considering consumer benefits, of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Next, the authors discuss how utility-scale renewable energy can contribute to a low-cost electricity system, e.g., in some cases, low-resource costs relative to other alternatives. They conclude with a discussion of behind-the-meter renewable energy consumer benefits, e.g., reduced host electricity bill, increased property value, and resilience.
Consumer Impacts of Clean Energy: Climate and health benefits from electrifying residential space and water heating, Pigman et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors explore the climate and air quality impacts of residential electrification, considering the reduced residential emissions on one side and increased power sector emissions on the other until the vision of a fully decarbonized electric sector is achieved. They address this trade-off by asking; in the contiguous United States, what are the net climate and health impacts of switching a portion (1%) of fossil-fueled residential space or water heating to heat pumps?
Tackling Hidden Emissions for a Net-Zero Transition, UN-convened Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance
The authors find that barriers to tackling Scope 3 emissions—which account for three-quarters of most companies’ total emissions—persist. For asset owners, the barriers include limited data quality, inconsistent accounting frameworks, and double-counting risks, which make it challenging to integrate these emissions into portfolio steering and overall climate strategy. The authors provide actionable advice for asset owners, enabling them to make meaningful progress while driving public discourse and pushing for regulatory change. For efficient action, the authors argue that companies should focus on their two most significant categories, which would allow them to cover on average 81 percent of the overall Scope 3 emissions intensity in each sector.
Data Centers in Virginia, Sarte et al., Joint Legislative and Review Commission
Data centers provide positive economic benefits to Virginia’s economy, mostly during their initial construction. Data centers can generate substantial local tax revenues for localities that have them. The data center industry is forecast to drive an immense increase in energy demand.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 12 December, 2024
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