Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2026

Open access notables

A desk piled high with research reports

Editorial: Surviving the Anthropocene: the 3 E’s under pressing planetary issues, Sanita Lima et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Scientists, including stratigraphists, all agree that our species has changed planet Earth in unprecedented ways. But contention exists around the actual start date and the diachronicity of the global human impact (Boivin et al., 2024). Indeed, the term “Anthropocene” is not the first attempt to name the consequences of human activities on our planet (Steffen et al., 2011), and several starting dates for the Anthropocene (from the emergence of the human species to the Great Acceleration and nuclear tests) have been eloquently defended (Logan, 2022). Furthermore, given the social and monetary aspects of the Anthropocene, terms like Capitalocene have been proposed as well (Moore, 2016). As highlighted in this Research Topic, López-Corona and Magallanes-Guijón introduce the concept of Technocene and explain why human technology must take a central place in the definition of our current period. Interestingly, the existence of so many terms trying to explain our impact on Earth could already be an indicator that we are, in fact, in a moment at which human interference is changing Earth’s natural history.

Relationships between climate change perceptions and climate adaptation actions: policy support, information seeking, and behaviour, van Valkengoed et al., Climatic Change

People are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, including floods, droughts, and vector-borne diseases. A broad repertoire of adaptation actions is needed to adapt to these various hazards. It is therefore important to identify general psychological antecedents that motivate people to engage in many different adaptation actions, in response to different hazards, and in different contexts. We examined if people’s climate change perceptions act as such general antecedents. Questionnaire studies in the Netherlands (n = 3,546) and the UK (n = 803) revealed that the more people perceive climate change as real, human-caused, and having negative consequences, the more likely they are to support adaptation policy and to seek information about local climate impacts and ways to adapt. These relationships were stronger and more consistent when the information and policies were introduced as measures to adapt to risks of climate change specifically. However, the three types of climate change perceptions were inconsistently associated with intentions to implement adaptation behaviours (e.g. installing a green roof). This suggests that climate change perceptions can be an important gateway for adaptation actions, especially policy support and information seeking, but that it may be necessary to address additional barriers in order to fully harness the potential of climate change perceptions to promote widespread adaptation behaviour.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Unequal evidence and impacts, limits to adaptation: Extreme Weather in 2025Otto et al., World Weather Attribution

Every December we are asked the same question: was it a bad year for extreme weather? And each year, the answer becomes more unequivocal: yes. Fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, driving global temperatures upward and fueling increasingly destructive climate extremes across every continent. Although 2025 was slightly cooler than 2024 globally, it was some of the worst extreme weather events of 2025 that were studied, documenting the severe consequences of a warming climate and revealing, once again, how unprepared people remain. Across the 22 extreme events that are analyzed in depth, heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires claimed lives, destroyed communities, and wiped-out crops. Together, these events paint a stark picture of the escalating risks we face in a warming world

Counting the Cost 2025. A year of climate breakdownJoe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid

The authors identify the 10 most expensive and impactful climate disasters of 2025. The year 2025 was marked by a series of devastating climate events, from heatwaves that pushed the limits of human survival, to record-breaking hurricanes that overwhelmed disaster response systems, and catastrophic rainfall and droughts that wreaked havoc on vulnerable communities. The report underscores the escalating cost of climate change, with fossil fuel companies playing a central role in driving the crisis. The cost of climate inaction is equally clear, as communities continue to bear the brunt of a crisis that could have been averted with urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

2025 Climate SurveyThe National Institute for Climate and Environmental Policy at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

Levels of concern about the impacts of climate change are high across the public, but readiness to change lifestyles is low, especially when it involves personal sacrifice. The data indicate that religious affiliation explains climate attitudes in Israel more strongly than political affiliation.

44 articles in 22 journals by 242 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States, Williams & Fieweger, 10.22541/essoar.175214727.71008323/v1

Observed and Modeled Trends in Downward Surface Shortwave Radiation Over Land: Drivers and Discrepancies, McKinnon & Simpson Simpson, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119493

Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 °C climate futures, JIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008

The Emerging Precipitation Dipole Regime during the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Termination Phase, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0284.1

Toward Realistic Prognostic Modeling of the Methane Chemical Loss, Mirrezaei et al., 10.22541/essoar.175288325.58779694/v1

Tropical Moist Heat Extremes on Small Scales Are Not Well Constrained by Reanalysis-Derived Quasi-Equilibrium Relationships, Bowman & Back Back, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117372

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic influences on rainfall seasonality changes and underlying physical mechanisms in global land monsoon regions, Deng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105253

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Complementarity between Two Global Satellite-Retrieved Irradiance Products: GSNO and NSRDB, Ma et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0126.1

Comprehensive evaluation of multi-source reanalysis datasets for surface atmospheric parameters over the Greenland Ice Sheet, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.007

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing Future Climate Variability Affecting Wind Power and Their Implications for Energy Generation in South America Using CMIP6 Simulations, Llompart et al., 10.2139/ssrn.5380973

Three Drivers of 21st-Century Changes in Ocean Tides, Opel et al., Open Access 10.22541/essoar.174461421.17562797/v1

Weakened Circum-Global Teleconnection Pattern Under Global Warming Can Modulate Heat Extremes Across Eurasia, Yu & Zhou, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116358

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Tropical Moist Heat Extremes on Small Scales Are Not Well Constrained by Reanalysis-Derived Quasi-Equilibrium Relationships, Bowman & Back Back, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117372

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Enhanced nitrogen fixation as a result of short-lived global warming and marine anoxia in the Late Pennsylvanian icehouse climate, Yang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105134

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate driven divergence of growth resilience of Picea crassifolia from semi-arid to semi-humid habitats, Guo et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126428

Impact of acidification and ultraviolet radiation on the physiology of Ulva fasciata, Ozen & Yildiz, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107776

Marine heatwaves disrupt germination and seedling physiology in Zostera marina, Pieraccini et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107789

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Changing Interactions Between Trace Gas Fluxes, Belowground Chemistry, and Plant Traits Across an Arctic Thermokarst Landscape, Fettrow et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70667

Integrating surface-based in-situ and satellite observations to characterize CO2 and CH4 emission hotspots in Houston, USA, Karim & Rappenglück, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121713

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Winter CO2 temporal variations in a northern temperate bay: role of biological processes, Wang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107784

Decarbonization

Technological breakthroughs can reverse the unintended negative impacts of carbon tariffs on China’s steel sector and global economy, Weng et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083

 Climate change communications & cognition

Relationships between climate change perceptions and climate adaptation actions: policy support, information seeking, and behaviour, van Valkengoed et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03338-7

Cultural Expressions of Climate: Art as a Tool for Change, Ayala Chávez et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0022.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessing climate and transition risks to China’s agriculture under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios, Gan et al., 10.2139/ssrn.5204804

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Northeast Italian viticulture affected by heat and vegetation stress. A satellite-based study from 2000 to 2024, Baldan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110962

Vulnerability to climate change, depopulation and the global food regime: An index-based approach for rural Spain, Villamayor-Tomas et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104254

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic influences on rainfall seasonality changes and underlying physical mechanisms in global land monsoon regions, Deng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105253

Future Atmospheric Rivers in Antarctica: Characteristics and Impacts With the IPSL Model, Barthélemy et al., 10.22541/au.171387374.47240076/v2

Intensification of extreme precipitation across the Tibetan Plateau and its climatic drivers over 1982−2020, Song et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105182

Climate change mitigation public policy research

An empirically based dynamic approach to sustainable climate policy design, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Contestation is the process: Media debates, democratic struggles, and the decarbonization of road transport in Norway, Liste et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104506

Seeking carbon reduction, pollution control, green expansion, and economic growth in urban China: The role of renewable energy policy attention, Qin et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102616

When solutions become problems: How low-carbon innovations can undermine sustainability transitions, van Wijk & Fischhendler, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104421

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adapting urban areas to rising temperatures: Strategies to reduce heat and vulnerability in a warming world, Ventura et al., 10.2139/ssrn.5318598

Integrating policy measures into the assessment of household livelihood resilience to climate change in the Pumqu river Basin, Tibetan plateau, Wang et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4020061/v1

Climate change impacts on human health

Heat and mortality in a semi-arid city: A multi-scalar analysis of the impacts of temperature in Denver, Colorado, Dzwonczyk et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102709

Heat waves in urban areas in Latin America. A review of the literature from the social sciences+, Vallejos-Romero et al., Climate Risk Management 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100772

Heat-health risk knowledge, perceptions, adaptation, and challenges in Mozambique: insights from community members and health professionals, Pereira Marghidan et al., 10.2139/ssrn.5233717

Heatwaves and violence against women: a spatial analysis of female homicides in Brazil, Marca et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085

The role of climate services for health: Theoretical case studies on heat-health warning systems in India, Rizmie et al., Open Access 10.31223/x53h9x

Other

Tropical Temperature Distributions over a Wide Range of Climates: Theory and Idealized Simulations, Duffield & Byrne, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0262.1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Editorial: Surviving the Anthropocene: the 3 E’s under pressing planetary issues, Sanita Lima et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1758504


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Building a Sustainable?Water Future: Research, Partnerships, and Innovation at the California Water Institute, California Water Institute, Fresno State University

The authors showcase how applied research, education and strategic partnerships are supporting responses to California’s pressing water challenges. The authors highlight several projects that illustrate the institute’s applied, community-focused research, including groundwater recharge feasibility studies that evaluate suitable recharge zones and help agencies expand local water supplies, climate resilience research examining drought impacts, surface water variability and infrastructure vulnerabilities, urban water planning tools supporting sustainable consolidation, infrastructure upgrades and long-term supply reliability, water and agriculture integration studies assessing how cropping choices, soil conditions and recharge potential intersect, education and workforce development programs that prepare students to solve complex water challenges through hands-on research and community engagement.

Outlook For Alaska LNG Remains Speculative As Politics Overrides Commercial Logic, Rapidan Energy Group

The Trump administration has thrown its support behind the Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, designating it a national priority, but the project’s massive cost and commercial risks – which have long stalled progress – remain changed. Adding complexity, the project is now planned in phases. Phase 1 entails construction of the North Slope-to-Southcentral Alaska pipeline, which is aimed at solving two problems: (1) addressing impending natural gas shortages in Alaska’s Railbelt region, and (2) de-risking the integrated LNG export project proposed for Phase 2. However, Phase 1 is sub-economic on a standalone basis, and even with Phase 2, the economics do not appear commercially viable. The financing strategy now seems to hinge on a mix of public and private capital, potentially tied to trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India. This is a risky basis for what would be the world’s costliest LNG project if built. While more non-binding agreements, such as the March Letter of Intent (LOI) with Taiwan’s CPC, may emerge, we doubt they will translate into binding financial commitments and the base case is that the project does not reach a final investment decision.

Counting the Cost 2025. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid

The authors identify the 10 most expensive and impactful climate disasters of 2025. The year 2025 was marked by a series of devastating climate events, from heatwaves that pushed the limits of human survival, to record-breaking hurricanes that overwhelmed disaster response systems, and catastrophic rainfall and droughts that wreaked havoc on vulnerable communities. The report underscores the escalating cost of climate change, with fossil fuel companies playing a central role in driving the crisis. The cost of climate inaction is equally clear, as communities continue to bear the brunt of a crisis that could have been averted with urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Incorporating Tactical Energy Storage into War Reserves: DLA’s Vital Role in Sustaining Strategic Assets, Styer et al., Defense Logistics Agency

Batteries and tactical energy storage should be included in pre-positioned war reserve materiel to ensure today's modernized joint force is electronically equipped for success. The authors explore the growing importance of accessible, sustainable energy sources in war reserve inventories as new technology changes the way America's forces fight.

2025 Climate Survey, The National Institute for Climate and Environmental Policy at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

Levels of concern about the impacts of climate change are high across the public, but readiness to change lifestyles is low, especially when it involves personal sacrifice. The data indicate that religious affiliation explains climate attitudes in Israel more strongly than political affiliation.

Findings from a 2025 Survey of Adults Age 18 and Older, Cliamte and Energy Policy, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago & The AP-NORC Center 

Disaster Assistance High-Risk Series: State and Local Response Capabilities, Archer et al., Government Accountability Office

The authors focus on federal disaster preparedness and response assistance provided before and during recent disasters, variation in state and local response capabilities, and considerations for potential changes to disaster response roles.

Growing Curiosity. 2025 scan of carbon dioxide removal buyers in Canada, Luisa Corredor and Margret Nellissery, Pembina institute

Canada's carbon dioxide removal (CDR) market is at a pivotal moment. While direct emissions reductions remain the priority, CDR will be essential for addressing residual and hard-to-abate emissions on the path to net-zero by 2050. But who is actually prepared to invest in CDR, and what's holding others back? For the second year, the Pembina Institute's CDR Centre surveyed 247 organizations operating in Canada to understand corporate interest in purchasing carbon removal credits. The findings reveal a market in transition: interest is spreading across new industries and regions, with 67% of engaged buyers planning purchases before the end of 2026. However, 88% of invited organizations remain unengaged, signaling substantial untapped potential.

Unequal evidence and impacts, limits to adaptation: Extreme Weather in 2025, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution

Every December we are asked the same question: was it a bad year for extreme weather? And each year, the answer becomes more unequivocal: yes. Fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, driving global temperatures upward and fueling increasingly destructive climate extremes across every continent. Although 2025 was slightly cooler than 2024 globally, it was some of the worst extreme weather events of 2025 that were studied, documenting the severe consequences of a warming climate and revealing, once again, how unprepared people remain. Across the 22 extreme events that are analyzed in depth, heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires claimed lives, destroyed communities, and wiped-out crops. Together, these events paint a stark picture of the escalating risks we face in a warming world.

Beyond the Payoff: How Investments in Resilience and Disaster Preparedness Protect Communities, The US. Chamber of Commerce, Allstate, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation

Higher levels of investment in disaster resilience and preparedness can significantly reduce the economic toll of disasters. When communities reduce resilience investments, they risk facing more than 30 times that amount in lost future economic activity over the next decade. Resilience funding offers economic protection and stabilizes local labor markets, regardless of size or type of disaster. In hurricane-prone areas, investment can prevent the loss of more than 70,000 jobs. Local efforts matter. The authors outline six “Levers of Resilience” that local leaders can use to strengthen preparedness, from infrastructure upgrades to community engagement initiatives.

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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 1 January, 2026


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