Death Valley Illusion: Evidence against the 134°F World Record, Spencer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The world record hottest near-surface air temperature of 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California on 10 July 1913 is demonstrated to be approximately 14°F hotter than what likely occurred on that date. Using July data from non–Death Valley stations during 1923–2024, we compute a range of temperature lapse rates diagnosed from the differences between Greenland Ranch station and the average of higher-elevation stations’ maximum temperatures (T MAX) and elevation. The range of lapse rates from those 102 years of July data is then used to estimate Greenland Ranch temperatures during the early years (1911–22). The first 2 weeks of July 1913 are shown to be spuriously hot and other years at Greenland Ranch exhibit anomalous July temperature behavior as well. Despite the establishment of a U.S. Weather Bureau instrumented shelter at Greenland Ranch in 1911, based upon historical accounts, we believe some of the shelter readings in the early years were replaced with hotter values, possibly taken from the veranda of the ranch house using a thermometer of unknown provenance. As a result of these findings, we recommend that the 134°F world record status be rescinded and that many of the Greenland Ranch temperature reports during the early years be more closely evaluated for data quality.
Groundbreaking AccuWeather® Climate Study Reveals Profound Climate Trends with Far-Reaching Impacts, AccuWeather
Temperatures have increased an average of 0.5°F (0.28°C) per decade over the past 70 years. Dew point temperatures have increased an average of 0.3°F (0.17°C) per decade over the same period, though most of this increase occurred before 1995. Relative humidity remained more or less steady until 1995, but then decreased by a significant 5.3%, or an average of 1.7% per decade. Average annual rainfall has declined 2.7% since 1995, or on average 0.9% per decade, yet the frequency of rainfall amounts greater than 4 inches in a 24-hour period have actually increased by 70%. Likewise, heavy rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches within a 24-hour period have increased by 23%.
2025 Global Climate Highlights, Copernicus Climate Change Service
2025 ranks as the third-warmest year on record, following the unprecedented temperatures observed in 2023 and 2024. It was marginally cooler than 2023, while 2024 remains the warmest year on record and the first year with an average temperature clearly exceeding 1.5°C above the pre?industrial level. 2025 saw exceptional near?surface air and sea surface temperatures, extreme events, including floods, heatwaves and wildfires. Preliminary data indicate that greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase in 2025.
[The upstream database we normally rely upon to supply article metadata and links to accessible article copies continues to misbehave, meaning that our queue of unlisted items continues to grow even as what we output here shrinks. We are awaiting reply to a trouble ticket.]
Physical science of climate change, effects
Future Shoaling of the AMOC and Its Impact on Oceanic Heat Transport to the Subpolar North Atlantic, Lee et al., 10.22541/essoar.175883350.02498548/v1
Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate, Chambers et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y
Storm Boris (2024) in the current and future climate: a dynamics-centered contextualization, and some lessons learnt, Riboldi et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3599
Observations of climate change, effects
Long-term sea surface temperature time series from Malin Head, Ireland, Daves et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-555
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Constraining the Stratospheric Sulfate Budget in Global Models: Insights From In Situ OCS Measurements During 2023 SABRE and Comparison With Satellite, Balloon and Surface Data, Gurganus et al., 10.22541/au.174923128.88516613/v1
Death Valley Illusion: Evidence against the 134°F World Record, Spencer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0313.1
Joint estimation of global daily 1 km surface radiation budget components from MODIS observations (2000−2023) using conservation-constrained deep neural networks, Xu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.115135
Long-term sea surface temperature time series from Malin Head, Ireland, Daves et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-555
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based on CMIP6 scenarios, Crapart et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3710
Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature response to external forcing in decadal climate simulations, Fahad et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1892797/v2
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Sea level & climate change
Future Changes in the Annual Sea-Level Cycle, Hermans et al., 10.22541/essoar.174940475.52428471/v1
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate driven divergence of growth resilience of Picea crassifolia from semi-arid to semi-humid habitats, Guo et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126428
Establishing ring width and cell chronologies for predicting future growth of Thuja koraiensis under climate change, Park et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126423
Impacts of precipitation shifts and warming trends in tropical deciduous forests of Central India, Kumar et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100516
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
High-resolution remote sensing and machine-learning-based upscaling of methane fluxes: a case study in the Western Canadian tundra, Ivanova et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3968
Improved air-sea CO2 flux estimates from sailboat measurements, Behncke et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6427
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Tropical forest carbon sequestration accelerated by nitrogen, Lu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2020790118
Winter CO2 temporal variations in a northern temperate bay: role of biological processes, Wang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107784
Decarbonization
Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040, Noll et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6312923/v1
Climate change communications & cognition
Meta-analytical evidence of a self–other discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions, Bergquist et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5684495/v1
The effect of advocacy on perceived credibility of climate scientists in a Dutch text on greening of gardens, van Sebille et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3131
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Emerging hotspots of agricultural drought under climate change, Black et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Quantifying agricultural N2O and CH4 emissions in the Netherlands using an airborne eddy covariance system, Waldmann et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19467
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Regional disparities in extreme precipitation trends across East Asia: Observation-constrained projection and attribution, BAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008
Climate change economics
Labor's share of income, income inequality, and CO2 emissions in the world's electricity sector, Grant et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104504
Rhode Island 2025 Climate Action Strategy, Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council, Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management
The strategy serves as Rhode Island's comprehensive plan for reducing emissions while advancing equity, affordability, and a just transition for workers and environm emissions modeling, and analyses of policies and actions, costs, health outcomes, and workforce needs to support decarbonization in RI.
Modern Rate Design in the Northeast: Unlocking EfÏciency, Affordability, and Electrification, Cosgrove et al., Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships
The Northeast is home to some of the highest energy costs in the country, and with demand continuing to rise, affordability is an urgent concern. For decades, rate design has been an important tool to manage costs and encourage efficiency. Yet traditional approaches have not kept pace with new technologies or evolving policy goals. The result is customers are left without the incentives they need to save energy and keep bills manageable. The authors provide a framework for regulators, utilities, and policymakers. They explore how modern rate design can drive energy efficiency, align with electrification, encourage demand flexibility, and embed equity and affordability into the very structure of rates. Drawing on practices already emerging in the region — from time?of?use rates to peak time rebates and seasonal structures — the authors illustrate how smarter rate design can be layered with customer education and protections for vulnerable households. Together, these strategies can ensure affordability, optimize grid use, minimize costs, and advance state policy goals.
Analysis of the 2027/2028 RPM Base Residual Auction Part A, Monitoring Analytics
The authors present a first set of sensitivity analyses of the twenty first Reliability Pricing Model (RPM) Base Residual Auction (BRA), for the 2027/2028 Delivery Year, which was held from December 4 to 10, 2025. The sensitivities in Part A are focused on the substantial recent increase in actual load and the increase in the peak load forecast for the 2027/2028 BRA, both of which were almost entirely due to existing and projected large data center load additions to the PJM grid. The authors present the results of these sensitivities in order to provide information to stakeholders that is relevant to decision making about the 2028/2029 BRA, now scheduled for June 30 to July 4, 2026, the design of future auctions, the design of the Variable Resource Requirement (VRR) curve, and the treatment of large data center loads. The results reported here are not forecasts or predictions of the outcome of any future BRA.
Item 16.2: System Planning and Weatherization Update, Kristi Hobbs, The Electric Reliability Council of Texas
The author provides an update on recent activity related to planning, modeling, large load and generation interconnections, resource adequacy and weatherization. ERCOT has received 225 new Large Load interconnection requests in 2025 which account for a 270% MW demand increase since January. The 1,999 new generation requests in process are comprised of 77% solar and energy storage resources. The first Texas Energy Fund project received approval to energize. ERCOT has reviewed more than double the number of transmission projects compared to 2024.
Water Systems’ Wildfire Fighting Capacities and Expectations, Piece et al., The Luskin Center for Innovation, University of California, Los Angeles
As urban wildfires grow larger and faster-moving, the public and policymakers are asking new questions about what water systems can realistically do to fight the spread of extreme fire events. The authors synthesize findings from the first workshop hosted by UCLA and the UC Agriculture and Natural Resources’ Water Supply + Wildfire Research and Policy Coordination Network. The authors examine water systems’ wildfire-fighting capacities, limitations, and resilience needs. Forty-two experts from water agencies, fire services, research institutions, and state and local organizations discussed and evaluated system risks, infrastructure constraints, communication and coordination challenges, and potential interventions. Participants emphasized broad agreement that water systems cannot reasonably be expected to stop large urban wildfires and that public expectations often exceed system design requirements, but also identified potentially replicable case studies. They also identified the need for clearer communication, stronger cross-agency coordination, and careful evaluation of trade-offs in infrastructure investments. The authors highlight priority areas for future research, including cost-benefit assessments, statewide guidance options, and integrated planning approaches. These insights aim to support more informed preparedness, response, and recovery at the water–fire nexus.
Preliminary Report on Runoff Characteristics from Utility-Scale Solar Sites, Stewart et al., Virginia Tech
The authors began a six-year study to quantify and interpret stormwater generation from utility-scale solar sites across Virginia. The authors present preliminary results from the initial stage (1-2 years) of stormwater monitoring associated with that project, focusing on three utility-scale solar sites in Virginia. The three sites (hereafter deemed Sites A, B, and C) were built between one and eight years prior to guidelines that were in effect prior to December 2024. The authors analysis showed that catchments within solar arrays tended to produce rapid, and at times substantial, amounts of surface runoff during storms. Based on the median and maximum storms measured at each site, catchments with solar arrays produced greater runoff volumes than reference catchments. The time of concentration values at Site A were similar between catchments with solar panels and a reference catchment containing a row-crop field (means of 1.2-2.1 h), and all were much shorter than the time of concentration measured in a nearby reference catchment with a mixture of grass and forest cover (mean of 3.5 h).
Community-Level Preparedness and Recovery for Increasingly Severe Weather, Huggins et al., Drexel University and The Environmental Collaboratory
The threats communities face are multidimensional, and the response must be equally comprehensive, coordinated, equitable, and grounded in community-based partnerships. The authors outline practical, achievable steps that governments, institutions, private-sector leaders, organizations, and individuals can take now to strengthen preparedness, bolster community resilience, reduce loss of life and livelihood, and ensure communities can thrive into the future. Together, these actions carry a powerful truth: resilience is strongest when it is shared—and preparedness saves lives, homes, communities, and yes, money.
Despite federal backsliding, US states and municipalities are still planning for climate resilience, Manann Donoghoe, Brookings
Starting at the national level, the author discusses the federal programs that provide funding for state and local investments in resilient infrastructure and technical assistance, as well as the limitations with the current federal system. The author then charts the rise of resilience planning at the sub-national level—mapping which states, municipalities, and regional coalitions are implementing resilience plans. While climate resilience has become more contested federally as recent administrative actions freeze or claw back resilience grants, at the sub-national level, planning for climate resilience is more common than one may think. Municipal planning in particular has become more comprehensive and widespread, demonstrating that planning for climate impacts continues to be normalized as a function of governance.
Power After the Storm. Achieving Grid Resilience in a Climate-Changed World, Licker et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
Extreme weather events were behind all the biggest blackouts in the Central US over the last decade, impacting hundreds of thousands of customers. The most damaging events were nearly always caused by extreme weather events occurring simultaneously or within short succession, making the impacts far worse. Climate change is projected to worsen extreme events—investments in the grid must be resilient to this climate reality.
Groundbreaking AccuWeather® Climate Study Reveals Profound Climate Trends with Far-Reaching Impacts, AccuWeather
Temperatures have increased an average of 0.5°F (0.28°C) per decade over the past 70 years. Dew point temperatures have increased an average of 0.3°F (0.17°C) per decade over the same period, though most of this increase occurred before 1995. Relative humidity remained more or less steady until 1995, but then decreased by a significant 5.3%, or an average of 1.7% per decade. Average annual rainfall has declined 2.7% since 1995, or on average 0.9% per decade, yet the frequency of rainfall amounts greater than 4 inches in a 24-hour period have actually increased by 70%. Likewise, heavy rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches within a 24-hour period have increased by 23%.
Fixing America’s Partisan Divide Over EVs: Tracking Three Years of Slow Progress, David Hill and Stephen Whit, EVs for All America
The authors' research finds that Americans’ views on electric vehicles (EV) are evolving, with Republican resistance easing but concerns about jobs, China and affordability still shaping the market. The authors analyze three years of national polling of U.S. auto consumers. They found positive movement among Republicans, strong partisan polarization over Elon Musk and Donald Trump, and a clear road map to sell more EVs across America.
Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts, Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva and Connor Huf, Social Policy Global Department, World Bank Group
Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. The authors help fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the authors apply simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The authors also find robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.
Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025, Michael Gaffney and Ben King, Rhodium Group
Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, the authors estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions. Emissions also grew faster than the economy in 2025, with real GDP expanding by a projected 1.9%—reversing the decoupling of emissions and economic activity of the prior two years. Emissions in 2025 were 6% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and 18% below 2005 levels. The increase in emissions was driven primarily by the buildings and power sectors. Colder winter temperatures drove higher space heating demand in buildings, pushing up direct emissions from fuel use in buildings by 6.8%. Higher natural gas prices and growing power demand boosted coal electricity generation, resulting in a 3.8% rise in power sector emissions. Elsewhere, changes in emissions were more subdued. Industrial sector emissions rose modestly due to higher industrial activity, and oil and gas emissions ticked up slightly with increased production. Despite record travel activity, transportation emissions were essentially flat due to the growing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles. US emissions in 2025 were not meaningfully impacted by policies enacted by the 119th Congress and the Trump administration, but we project that those policy changes could have increasing effects in the years to come.
Top Risks 2026, Eurasia Group
THE authors' annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. For example, The defining technologies of the 21st-century economy run on electrons: electric vehicles (EVs), drones, robots, advanced manufacturing, smart grids, battery storage—and yes, AI. These systems share a common foun electronics, embedded compute). Master the stack, and you can build almost anything the modern economy demands. Cede it, and you are buying the future from someone else. China has mastered it. The United States is ceding it. In 2026, that divergence will become impossible to ignore.
Oregon Water Supply Outlook Report, Jason Ward, Portland Data Collection Office, USDA-NRCS Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program
Winter is off to a slow start, with SNOTEL was the second lowest in nearly 80 years of records.
EU energy security - evaluating the EU's security of electricity and gas supply framework, European Commission staff, European Commission
Energy security is one of three pillars of EU energy policy, alongside sustainability and affordability. It is defined as the ability of an economy to ensure a constant match between its energy needs and its energy supply, even under challenging circumstances. The authors evaluate the Gas Security of Supply Regulation of 2017 and the Electricity Risk security, while the gas and electricity markets are highly intertwined.
A Matter of principle — China’s Status in International Climate Negotiations, Schaik et al., The China Knowledge Network and the Clingendael Institute
In international climate negotiations, China has identified itself as a developing country since the early 1990s, which means it is exempted from climate finance commitments and less pressured about taking on an absolute emission reduction target. For China the issue of developing country status is a matter of principle, grounded in the fact that its global identity is and has always been strongly linked to solidarity with the developing world. The EU is pressured by developing countries and NGOs to provide more climate finance and reduce emissions faster, whereas it considers China a superpower and big polluter that could also do more, while recognizing its impressive contribution to energy transition at home and through its Belt and Road Initiative financing scheme. In raising the issue, the Netherlands and other European countries and NGOs could highlight the developing country status of other richer countries. In addition, they need to be careful in copying Global South-narratives. Addressing the developing country status of China outright is unlikely to be constructive in a context where both China and the EU have a joint interest in the global energy transformation to reduce fossil fuel use and mitigate climate change. A forthcoming emissions credit system to meet the 5% flexibility target of the EU’s new emissions reduction target for 2040 may provide a renewed opportunity to negotiate with China on if and how the China and the EU can cooperate on climate change.
Parasol Lost: Recovery plan needed. Global risk management for human prosperity, Trust et al., Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and University of Exeter
Policymakers and financial institutions are underestimating climate risks that could undermine the global financial system. The authors warn that global temperatures are accelerating faster than predicted, driven by a loss of ‘aerosol cooling’, a hidden sunshade effect created by air pollution which has offset around 0.5°C of warming. This hidden sunshade is now receding as pollution is being cut down, particularly by shipping regulations. The faster rate of warming is also explained by the Earth’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases (‘climate sensitivity’), which recent studies suggest could be towards the upper end of scientific estimates.
Enabling and Ensuring a NetZero Aligned Carbon Market for Ukraine. A Practical Guide for Policymakers and Partners, Axelsson et al., Oxford Net Zero and Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
Ukraine’s ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and integrate with the EU Green Deal requires a coherent and credible carbon-market framework. Well-designed carbon markets can unlock additional private finance for climate mitigation and recovery, support the just transition of affected regions, and strengthen Ukraine’s credibility under the Paris Agreement. This practical guide sets out how the Ukrainian government can ensure that its emerging carbon market is net-zero aligned, following the six-pillar framework of the Oxford Roadmap to Net-Zero Aligned Carbon Market Regulation and reflects the Oxford Principles for Responsible Engagement with Article 6. It outlines concrete steps for the legal design, institutional coordination, and implementation through 2030, linking Ukraine’s domestic emissions trading system (ETS), voluntary markets, and both market (Articles 6.2 and 6.4) and non-market (Article 6.8) cooperative approaches into a unified, high-integrity system that supports technology transfer, access to finance, and capacity building in line with Ukraine’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution.
2025 Global Climate Highlights, Copernicus Climate Change Service
2025 ranks as the third-warmest year on record, following the unprecedented temperatures observed in 2023 and 2024. It was marginally cooler than 2023, while 2024 remains the warmest year on record and the first year with an average temperature clearly exceeding 1.5°C above the pre?industrial level. 2025 saw exceptional near?surface air and sea surface temperatures, extreme events, including floods, heatwaves and wildfires. Preliminary data indicate that greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase in 2025.
Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.
Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 15 January, 2026
 |
The Skeptical Science website by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. |