Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4 2026

Open access notables

A desk piled high with research reports

Mapping Europe’s rooftop photovoltaic potential with a building-level database, Kakoulaki et al., Nature Energy

Individual building-level approaches are needed to understand the full potential of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) at national and regional scale. Here we use the European Digital Building Stock Model R2025, an open-access building-level database, to assess rooftop solar potential for each of the 271 million buildings in the European Union. The results show that potential capacity could reach 2.3 TWp (1,822 GWp residential, 519 GWp non-residential), with an annual output of 2,750 TWh based on current PV technology. This corresponds to approximately 40% of electricity demand in a 100% renewable scenario for 2050. Already by 2030, over a half of buildings with floor area larger than 2,000 m2 could generate most of remaining capacity for the 2030 target with 355 GWp. Across member states, non-residential rooftops could cover 50% or more of their PV targets, with several exceeding 95%. The open-access building-level database offers practical tools to support better decisions, accelerate renewable energy adoption and promote a more decentralized energy system. It is also an enabler for planners and researchers to further explore energy scenarios with high renewable shares.

A new class of climate hazard metrics and its demonstration: revealing a ten-fold increase of extreme heat over Europe, Kirchengast et al., Weather and Climate Extremes
Here we introduce a new class of threshold-exceedance-amount metrics that consistently track changes in event frequency, duration, magnitude, area, and timing aspects like daily exposure and seasonal shift—as separate metrics, partially compound (e.g., average event severity), and as compound total events extremity (TEX). Building on daily temperature datasets over 1961 to 2024, we applied the new metrics to extreme heat events at local- to country-scale (example Austria) and across Europe, demonstrating their utility through this use. Comparing the recent period 2010-2024 to the reference period 1961-1990, we reveal amplification factors of around 10 [5 to 25] in the TEX of extreme heat over Austrian and most central and southern European regions. This degree of amplification is found to strongly exceed the natural variability, providing unequivocal evidence of anthropogenic climate change. Given their fundamental capacity to reliably track any threshold-defined hazard at any location, the new metrics can support a myriad of uses beyond this example application. These range from climate impact analyses for extremes such as heatwaves, floods and droughts to extreme events attribution, quantifying the anthropogenic share of a hazard extremity and of its damage to properties and harm to people.
Learning the hard way: Applying a climate literacy approach to extreme weather experience — Evidence from Poland, Kurowski & Wites, Weather and Climate Extremes
Climate literacy is essential for empowering societies to respond effectively to the challenges of climate change. However, individuals often struggle to address climate issues because of their abstract nature and perceived psychological distance. This study investigates whether direct personal experiences of extreme weather events are associated with higher scores on the climate literacy measures among Polish citizens. We developed and validated, through an expert-based process, the “Big Three Climate Literacy Questions” - a concise instrument designed to capture key components of climate literacy across knowledge, skills and attitudes - and administered them in a survey of 1001 residents from regions in Poland historically affected by floods and storms. Regression analyses reveal that the mere occurrence of an extreme weather event does not significantly influence scores on the climate literacy measures. However, when such events result in severe financial or psychological consequences, they are associated with higher literacy scores (for all three dimensions of climate literacy), suggesting that the intensity of the experience can act as a catalyst for deeper cognitive and emotional engagement. We also find that individuals employed in high-emission sectors tend to overestimate their climate knowledge; nonetheless, their personal experiences with extreme weather events are still associated with higher scores on the climate literacy measures. These findings support the hypothesis that intense climate-related experiences can serve as “teachable moments", enhancing receptiveness to climate information and fostering the development of more accurate and informed climate-related beliefs—even among groups that might otherwise exhibit resistance to such messages.

From this week's government/NGO section:

WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on recordWorld Meteorological Organization

The global average surface temperature was 1.44 °C (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.13 °C) above the 1850-1900 average, according to WMO’s consolidated analysis of eight datasets. Two of these datasets ranked 2025 as the second warmest year in the 176-year record, and the other six ranked it as the third warmest year. The past 11 years have been 11 warmest on record. Temporary cooling by La Niña does not reverse the monotonic trend. International data exchange underpins climate monitoring datasets for a single authoritative source of information.

Global Temperature Report for 2025Berkeley Earth

2025 was the third warmest year on Earth since 1850. It is exceeded only by 2024 and 2023. This period, since 1850, is the time when sufficient direct measurements from thermometers exist to create a purely instrumental estimate of changes in global mean temperature. The analysis combines 23 million monthly-average thermometer measurements from 57,685 weather stations with ~500 million instantaneous ocean temperature observations collected by ships and buoys. The last 11 years have included all 11 of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record, with the last 3 years including all of the top 3 warmest.

Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in 2025National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2025 ranks as the third-warmest yea Upper ocean heat content was record high in 2025. Annual sea ice extent for both the Arctic and Antarctic regions ranked among the three lowest years on record. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was the third lowest on record. There were 101 named tropical storms across the globe in 2025, which was above average.

201 articles in 60 journals by 1151 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Antarctic warming affects northern Equatorial Indian Ocean SST via oceanic tunnels, Sherin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105321

Climate and Anthropogenic Perturbations Impact Stream Geochemistry, Warix et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006512

Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, Pfleiderer et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-89-2026

Dynamics of Heat Wave Intensification over the Indian Region, Lekshmi et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-24-0093.1

Exploring the Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Extremes on Precipitation Extremes Across India's Climate Zones: A Complex Network Approach, Reddy et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70172

Increased deciduous tree dominance reduces wildfire carbon losses in boreal forests, Black et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z

Irreversibility of extreme precipitation intensity in global monsoon areas under multiple carbon neutrality scenarios, Miah et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100843

North Atlantic ventilation change over the past three decades is potentially driven by climate change, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-67923-x

The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing, Seeber et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03178-8

Upper Circumpolar Deep Water Properties: Means and Trends From 2005 Through 2024, Johnson, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc023154

Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming, Guan et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-025-01879-x

Observations of climate change, effects

A new class of climate hazard metrics and its demonstration: revealing a ten-fold increase of extreme heat over Europe, Kirchengast et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100855

An Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Trends in the Missouri River Basin: Insights From Three Gridded Precipitation Data Sets and Climate Indices, Gupta et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70163

Climate change shifts the North Pacific storm track polewards, Chemke & Yuval, Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09895-y

Creeping snow drought threatens Canada’s water supply, Sarpong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03162-8

Long-Term Trends in Global Natural Vegetation Greenness Rate and Its Climatic Drivers in a Warming World, An et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009089

Mapping Diurnal Heat Stress in Nigeria: Spatial and Temporal Changes Over Seven Decades, Nasara et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70262

Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-66868-5

Reduced spatial heterogeneity of day-night temperature variability difference under global changes, Liu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105311

Spatio-Temporal Change of Climate Regions in Türkiye, Pekta? & Aksu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70166

The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years, Serreze et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-411-2026

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A new class of climate hazard metrics and its demonstration: revealing a ten-fold increase of extreme heat over Europe, Kirchengast et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100855

Diatom lipids open window to past ocean temperatures in the polar regions, Belt et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03177-1

Energy-conservation datasets of global land surface radiation and heat fluxes from 2000–2020 generated by CoSEB, Wang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-456

Tracking surface ozone responses to clean air actions under a warming climate in China using machine learning, Fang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-851-2026

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic warming projected to drive a decline in global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 simulations, Zhao et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01330-x

Coupled climate–land-use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa, Adeyeri et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03110-6

New insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in Northern Hemisphere’s snow drought, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03187-7

Observed and CMIP6 projected rainfall variability and change in drylands of southern Ethiopia, Chinasho et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000800

Projected Future Changes in the Withdrawal of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, Cheng & Wang, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0357.1

Simulated Impact of Vegetation Greening on Summer Arctic Cyclone Intensity in the Northern Eurasia Margin in WRFs, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70175

Storylines of extreme summer temperatures in southern South America, Suli et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3357

Summer Precipitation Long-Term Changes at Different Intensities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region From 1961 to 2014 and Simulation Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Models, Gao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70222

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Bias Adjustment and the Question of Usable Climate Information: Methodological Assumptions and Value Judgments, Spuler et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0022.1

Complex Networks Reveal Climate Models' Capability in Simulating Global Synchronized Extreme Precipitation, Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl118219

Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Reanalysis Products and CMIP6 Models Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques With Nature-Inspired Optimization, Choudhary et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70159

Evaluation of atmospheric sulfur dioxide simulated with the EMAC (version 2.55) Chemistry–Climate Model using satellite and ground-based observations, Makroum et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-447-2026

Improved European heat event simulation in eddy-resolving climate models, Krüger et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03145-9

Mobile sensing discovery of when where and why vulnerable road users break traffic rules, Li et al., npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44333-025-00068-y

Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models, Zhang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01897-9

Cryosphere & climate change

A new era of bioclimatic extremes in the terrestrial Arctic, Aalto et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adw5698

African contributions are missing from cryosphere research in Africa and worldwide, Asante et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2025.1691950

Bias-adjusted projections of snow cover over eastern Canada using an ensemble of regional climate models, Bresson et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3979

Creeping snow drought threatens Canada’s water supply, Sarpong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03162-8

Positive feedbacks drive the Greenland ice sheet evolution in millennial-length MAR–GISM simulations under a high-end warming scenario, Paice et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465

Post-2000 faster ENSO phase transitions amplify autumn sea ice loss in the Laptev–East Siberian Sea, Wang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea3753

Prevailing thermal models underestimate permafrost thermal state in the Tibetan Plateau: Implications for cryosphere adaptation, Zhao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.009

Seasonal timing and preceding moisture regime mediate impacts of heavy rainfall events on High Arctic plant growth, Magnússon et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70237

State dependent ice-sheet resonance under Cenozoic and future climates, Golledge et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03135-x

Sea level & climate change

Abrupt trend change in global mean sea level and its components in the early 2010s, Leclercq et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03149-5

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Contrasting evolution of the Arabian Sea and Pacific Ocean oxygen minimum zones during the Miocene, Hess et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03112-4

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States, Enes Gramoso et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70676

Accelerated Flowering and Differential Florigen Gene Expression of Seagrass Zostera marina Under Experimental Warming, Nolan et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72942

Acute Heat Priming Dampens Gene Expression Response to Thermal Stress in a Widespread Acropora Coral, Stick et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72938

Aligning climate-smart marine spatial planning and ecoscape restoration for global biodiversity recovery, Wedding et al., Nature Reviews Biodiversity 10.1038/s44358-025-00116-y

Assessing Habitat Suitability and Range Dynamics of Syzygium alternifolium (Wight) Walp Under Future Climatic Scenarios, PP et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72861

Climate change impacts on Arctic ecosystems and associated feedbacks, Fauchald et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1747632

Commercial fishing amplifies impacts of increasing temperature on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems, Shurety et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67362-8

Compounded effects of long-term warming and the exceptional 2023 marine heatwave on North Atlantic coccolithophore bloom dynamics, Guinaldo & Neukermans, Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-145-2026

Compounded effects of long-term warming and the exceptional 2023 marine heatwave on North Atlantic coccolithophore bloom dynamics, Guinaldo & Neukermans, Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-145-2026

Conservation Challenges and Opportunities for Fokienia hodginsii in the Wuyi Mountains Under Climate Change and Human Influence, Luo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72887

Editorial: Polluted ecosystems: how global climate change drives pollutant dynamics in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, Ulus et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1772617

Exacerbated Impacts of Compound Dry-Hot Events on Vegetation: Critical Thresholds and Spatial Vulnerability Dynamics in Northwest China, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70266

Freshwater subarctic wetlands are vulnerable to future thermal stress from climate warming, Adey et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03080-9

Functional group and aridity regulate impacts of climate change on plant phenology: a meta-analysis, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-68242-x

Global Warming Drives Phenological Shifts and Hinders Reproductive Success in a Temperate Octocoral, Viladrich et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70660

Heat but Not Cold Tolerance Is Phylogenetically Constrained in Greenlandic Terrestrial Arthropods Under Future Global Warming, Wesseltoft et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70687

Hidden Vulnerability: Extreme Drought Threatens Dryland Plant Communities Under Climate Change, Wilson et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70703

Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Suitable Distribution of Rhodiola Species in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Modeling Insights for Conservation Prioritization, Li et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72896

Intraspecific Niche Evolution in a Drought Deciduous Shrub With Implications for Climate Resiliency, Pennartz et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72816

Karyotyping and Distribution Patterns of Endemic Chinese Lilies: Insights Into Their Conservation Under Climate Change, Gui et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72824

Local Adaptation in Climate Tolerance at a Small Geographic Scale Contrasts With Broad Latitudinal Patterns, Walter et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2025.05.27.655235

Long-Term Records Reveal Temperature-Driven Nutrient Limitation and Predict Intensified Algal Blooms in Global Lakes, Zhou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70719

Long-Term Trends in Global Natural Vegetation Greenness Rate and Its Climatic Drivers in a Warming World, An et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009089

Millennial-scale fire and climate dynamics in the world's largest tropical wetland show emerging fire threat to flooded ecosystems, Whitney et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5281340

Paleodistribution of Cercidiphyllaceae and Future Habitat Prediction for Cercidiphyllum japonicum Under Climate Change, Mao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72940

Physiological Traits for Climate-Ready Restoration, Barton et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72939

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under intensifying heat, Anderson-Teixeira & Anujan, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-04093-2

Projecting Climate-Driven Habitat Loss in Highly Trafficked Lizards: The Role of Dispersal Limitations and Protected Areas, Valbuena?Fernandez et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70140

Regional NDVI reconstruction over the last 600 years in Northwestern Patagonia reveals a rapid decline, Gallardo et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126475

Reimagining coral reef futures, Gianelli et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-025-00179-6

Significant northwest shift in suitable climate expected for North American bison by the year 2100, Shupinski et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1695457

Soil Protist Diversity and Biotic Interactions Shape Ecosystem Functions Under Climate Change, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70692

Spring phenology of the Arctic Ocean shelf production system, Huserbråten & Vikebø, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03192-w

Tree bark microbes for climate management, Gauci, Science 10.1126/science.aec9651

Tropical Montane Cloud Forests Have High Resilience to Five Years of Severe Soil Drought, Bartholomew et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70670

Tropicalization and biodiversity restructuring of calcifying plankton in a rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea, Lucas et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105314

Warming drives non-stationary climate-growth relationships and differential drought sensitivity in Mediterranean pines, Campôa et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126469

Warming-induced changes in leaf phenology could amplify the effects of spring drought on tree seedlings, Muñoz-Mazón & Seidl, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111022

Was black spruce a good host of the spruce budworm in warmer periods of the Holocene? a long-term reconstruction, Terreaux de Félice et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1682907

Widespread Phenological Shifts With Temperature in Alaska's Marine Fishes, Rogers et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70708

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Bark microbiota modulate climate-active gas fluxes in Australian forests, Leung et al., Science 10.1126/science.adu2182

Congo Basin Carbon Cycle Responses to Global Change, , Open Access 10.48577/jpl.llsnq0

Dynamic impacts of urbanization development on carbon storage and NPP: spatiotemporal responses in the Wanjiang urban belt (2000–2020), Fang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1747268

Editorial: Impact of climate change on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, He et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1778816

Frequent Droughts Reduce Carbon Stabilisation in Organo-Mineral Soils, Albanito et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70657

Long-term impacts of mixotrophy on ocean carbon storage: insights from a 10 000 year global model simulation, Puglia et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-463-2026

Mapping pan-Arctic riverine particulate organic carbon from space (1985 to 2022), Sun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady6314

Multiple Global Change Stressors Boost Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions Worldwide, Chen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70633

Optimal daily time windows for measuring fluxes of soil methane and nitrous oxide in subalpine forests are elusive - unlike for carbon dioxide, Peng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111026

Productivity-driven decoupling of microbial carbon use efficiency and respiration across global soils, Cui et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz5319

Reduced precipitation and increased temperature alter soil greenhouse gas fluxes in a Mediterranean forest, Villa-Sanabria et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110994

Remapping carbon storage change in retired farmlands on the Loess Plateau in China from 2000–2021 in high spatiotemporal resolution, Guo et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-429-2026

Spatiotemporal variability and environmental controls on aquatic methane emissions in an Arctic permafrost catchment, Thayne et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-477-2026

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy, Dong et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-68288-5

Fossil-fuel phase out is not enough: countries must remove atmospheric carbon, Clarke & Maslin, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00211-w

Seaweed farms enhance alkalinity production and carbon capture, Fakhraee & Planavsky, Communications Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44458-025-00004-8

Sonic velocity discontinuity for CO2 brine mixtures in the context of carbon storage in aquifers, Norouzi et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2025.1758092

The carbon dioxide removal potential of cement and lime kiln dust via ocean alkalinity enhancement, Flipkens et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-4887

Decarbonization

A critical meta-survey of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen energy systems, Sovacool et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104461

Mapping Europe’s rooftop photovoltaic potential with a building-level database, Kakoulaki et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-025-01947-x

Role of avoided emissions scheme and estimation of contributions of electric vehicles and heat pumps to reduction in global emissions, Akimoto et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2614424

Satisficing devices: Co-benefits in practice to decarbonize New York City's residential buildings, Bhardwaj et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104512

Uncovering the potential of coal-to-nuclear in the energy low-carbon transition, ZHOU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.001

Geoengineering climate

Influence of Surface Aerosol Injection on Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition: Cloud-Surface Coupling and Background Aerosol Concentrations, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044444

Ocean alkalinity enhancement in an estuary, Ho et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1665329

 Climate change communications & cognition

Dissent and obstruction: A systematic literature review of the climate countermovement, Eskridge-Aldama et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104529

Greater perceived fossil fuel reliance predicts lower support for systemic climate policies, Klebl et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102898

Learning the hard way: Applying a climate literacy approach to extreme weather experience — Evidence from Poland, Kurowski & Wites, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100851

Selective intersectionality: far-right populist Re-casting of social discontent in Europe’s green transition, Yazar et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2612815

The role of climate and migration concerns in shaping personal economic insecurity in european societies, Liashenko et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104533

“Why didn’t the sirens wail on the roofs?”: political framing competition in the German parliament following the 2021 floods, Wyss & Chiru, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2609431

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A scoping review of literature on adoption and impact of climate smart agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers in Africa, Rurii & Nzengya Daniel, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1692929

Associating climate change mitigation with protein security: The case of Ireland, Merlo et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104311

Bamboo for climate resilience: green gold of ecosystems in the UN SDG Framework, Mandaliya, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2025.1723994

Climate change has increased crop water consumption in Central Asia despite less water-intensive cropping, Peña-Guerrero et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03142-y

Climate Change Risks and Climate Adaptation in Agro-Processing Enterprises, Mazenda et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70030

Climate-resilient agri-food systems: analyzing yield trends and overcoming adoption barriers, Durgude et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-025-07186-0

Commercial fishing amplifies impacts of increasing temperature on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems, Shurety et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67362-8

Compound Drought and Temperature Events Intensify Wheat Yield Loss in Australia, Li et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004124

Grazing influences salt marsh greenhouse gas balance mediated by plant-specific methane emissions, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111001

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on a Socioeconomically Vital Plant: The Case of Comanthera elegans (Goldenfoot Flower), de Azevedo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72031

Natural grasslands used for grazing livestock can mitigate climate change, Pillar & Winck, Science 10.1126/science.aea8344

Projected shifts in climate and spring barley yields under future (CMIP6) scenarios across eight environmental zones in Europe, Köster et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5380175

Seaweed farms enhance alkalinity production and carbon capture, Fakhraee & Planavsky, Communications Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44458-025-00004-8

Strong mismatch in climate change adaptation between intentions of private forest owners in Canada and institutional support, Fouqueray et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02942-6

Sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) and global climate change: a new perspective for sustainable forestry, Vacek et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1731092

Tailoring Australian carbon farming can realise greater co-benefits, Bhattarai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68628-5

Unpacking the growth of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, Ortiz-Bobea & Pieralli, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb8653

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

An Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Trends in the Missouri River Basin: Insights From Three Gridded Precipitation Data Sets and Climate Indices, Gupta et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70163

Climatological Analysis of the 2022–2023 Unprecedented Dry Period in Southwestern Uruguay, Deagosto & Barreiro, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70260

Creeping snow drought threatens Canada’s water supply, Sarpong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03162-8

Evaluation of Present and Future Relationships Between Daily Precipitation and Temperature in Eastern China, Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70168

Global monsoon variability in a 1.5 °C warming climate: Observational changes and end-century projections, Kemarau et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108765

High resolution simulation of urban compound flooding under climate impacts, Amini et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102771

Irreversibility of extreme precipitation intensity in global monsoon areas under multiple carbon neutrality scenarios, Miah et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100843

Projected Future Changes in the Withdrawal of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, Cheng & Wang, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0357.1

Trends and Circulation Conditions of Precipitation Over the Sudeten Mountains (Central Europe) in the Years 1961–2020, Ojrzy?ska et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70256

Climate change economics

Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon, Bastien-Olvera et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A coalition on compliance carbon markets to make climate clubs politically feasible, Koppenborg, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02541-5

A Note on Effects of Fossil Fuel Reduction Policies on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Buildup and Global Warming, Alagoz et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106724

Aligning EU energy security and climate mitigation through targeted transition strategies, Lal et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-67595-7

Emission degrowth potential of Chinese city cluster toward carbon neutrality: The climate planetary boundaries perspective, Li et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102776

How does climate policy uncertainty influence energy consumption transition in China: evidence from 277 cities, Wei et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1744044

The role of carbon labels for consumer decisions: evidence from a class of Chinese students, Liu & Wang, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1708974

Understanding policymaker support of energy decarbonization policies for buildings, Dorsey-Palmateer et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104536

When a forest is masked by trees: How French subsurface industries involved in decarbonisation and transition policies are instrumentalising poor social acceptance, Arnauld de Sartre & Chailleux, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104517

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A habitability lens to boost effective local climate adaptation, Magnan et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104323

Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy, Read et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784

Co-designing soft climate adaptation: citizen centred solutions across four European pilots, Jost et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1738479

Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels, Nawarat et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y

Determinants of Household Adaptation to Climate Vulnerability in Wetland Areas of Bangladesh: An Empirical Estimation, Bithi et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70028

Exploring nature-based solutions’ effectiveness indicators for climate change adaptation: a systematic review, Horneman et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1603919

Forging Common Paths: A Systematic Review of Co-Creation and Collaborative Learning in Adaptation Pathways, Sommerauer et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70038

Impacts of global warming on coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02518-4

Moving on the edge: climate change-induced hazards and the politics of (im)mobility in Rohingya refugee camps, Rafa, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2609772

Strategies to strengthen institutional capacities for climate-resilient coastal socio-ecological systems in Bangladesh, Roy et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2617374

Taking values seriously for transformational climate change adaptation, Calliari et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5658900

The gap between attitudes and action within the US geoscience community's response to natural hazards, Gonzales et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access 10.5194/gc-9-35-2026

Urban climate resilience governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A novel approach based on integrating RAVT framework with SDGs, Yang & Li, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102702

Urban Heat Island in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Multi-City Approach in Regional Climate Modelling, Constantinidou et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70255

Climate change impacts on human health

Development and validation of the Global Urban Heat Vulnerability Index (GUHVI), Turner et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102716

Emerging heat stress patterns across India under future climate scenarios, Molina et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-36299-3

Mapping Diurnal Heat Stress in Nigeria: Spatial and Temporal Changes Over Seven Decades, Nasara et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70262

The shift of heat-related respiratory mortality from 2005 to 2019 in China and its socioeconomic determinants, Ji et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100789

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate change and ocean acidification pose a risk to underwater cultural heritage, Germinario et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03184-w

Other

Exploring water-energy-food nexus connections between climate action and regional development in the East African community, Wambua et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100760

Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency, Gössling et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03069-4

Millennial-scale fire and climate dynamics in the world's largest tropical wetland show emerging fire threat to flooded ecosystems, Whitney et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5281340

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Defossilize our chemical world, , Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-00005-0

Extreme weather event accountability, , Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-025-01904-z

The US is quitting 66 global agencies: what does it mean for science?, Castelvecchi & Masood, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00102-0 


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Global Temperature Report for 2025, Berkeley Earth

2025 was the third warmest year on Earth since 1850. It is exceeded only by 2024 and 2023. This period, since 1850, is the time when sufficient direct measurements from thermometers exist to create a purely instrumental estimate of changes in global mean temperature. The analysis combines 23 million monthly-average thermometer measurements from 57,685 weather stations with ~500 million instantaneous ocean temperature observations collected by ships and buoys. The last 11 years have included all 11 of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record, with the last 3 years including all of the top 3 warmest.

Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in 2025, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2025 ranks as the third-warmest yea Upper ocean heat content was record high in 2025. Annual sea ice extent for both the Arctic and Antarctic regions ranked among the three lowest years on record. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was the third lowest on record. There were 101 named tropical storms across the globe in 2025, which was above average.

Higher Energy Bills, Lost Jobs, and Growing Uncertainty: How Trump’s War on Clean Energy is Hurting Massachusetts Families, Offices of Senators Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey

To understand how Massachusetts residents are impacted by the Trump Administration’s attacks on clean energy, our offices interviewed thirteen Mas communities in the Commonwealth. President Trump’s attacks on clean energy projects have meant that over $8.6 billion in investment has been lost or delayed in Massachusetts, costing over 16,750 jobs. More than 165,000 jobs have been lost or delayed in the U.S. clean energy sector. More than $53 billion in private investment has been lost or delayed 324 projects across the country have been delayed, been cancelled, or laid off staff.

Who’s Obstructing Climate Action in the Rhode Island Legislature?, Culhane et al., The Climate and Development Lab, Brown University

After stunning successes in 2021 and 2022, climate action has slowed in Rhode Island. Why have outcomes in the same state been so different? Why do so many climate and clean energy bills die in the legislature? What are the barriers to climate legislation in Rhode Island? Who is obstructing state climate legislation, and what strategies are they using? What approaches are being proposed in the 2025 Climate Action Strategy, and how have neighboring states moved forward on them? The authors seek to answer those questions in ways that provide actionable information to advocates and insights for political observers. For example, Rhode Island Energy, owned by Pennsylvania Power and Light (PPL), spent the most on lobbying (in the years it has been active) and was the most active opponent of environmental groups on climate and energy bills in our study period. Business coalitions and the RI Public Utilities Commission (PUC) are frequent opponents of climate policies. Rhode Island’s 2025 Climate Action Strategy proposes interventions that have been introduced in past legislative sessions--and faced resistance. Rhode Island has key state-level constraints that have posed barriers to climate action.

WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record, World Meteorological Organization

The global average surface temperature was 1.44 °C (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.13 °C) above the 1850-1900 average, according to WMO’s consolidated analysis of eight datasets. Two of these datasets ranked 2025 as the second warmest year in the 176-year record, and the other six ranked it as the third warmest year. The past 11 years have been 11 warmest on record. Temporary cooling by La Niña does not reverse the monotonic trend. International data exchange underpins climate monitoring datasets for a single authoritative source of information.

Climate change presses on: Devastating wildfires and intense thunderstorms exacerbate losses for insurers, Munich Re

Natural disaster figures for 2025: Costliest claims year to date regarding non-peak perils: Wildfires, flooding and severe thunderstorms account for almost all insured losses. Insured losses once again above the US$ 100bn mark; total global losses lower than the 10-year average. Hurricane Melissa devastates Jamaica; USA dodges direct hurricane hit for first time in ten years. Fatalities totaling 17,200 significantly higher than in 2024, but below long-term average. Climate change does not let up: 2025 one of the warmest years ever.

Global EV sales reach 20.7 million units in 2025, growing by 20%, Rho Motion

The authors report that 2.1 million electric vehicles were sold globally in December. 

Tracking the energy transition: Where are we now?, Barth etal., McKinsey and Company

Following our first stock take in 2024, the authors conducted a follow-up review of the energy transition in 2025 by evaluating the deployment of clean energy technologies in key regions against net-zero targets. The authors reexamine the question, “Is the world on track to reach its 2030 low-carbon technology build-out plan?” To answer it, they evaluate nine key decarbonization technologies across China, Europe, which in the analysis includes the European U are currently on track to reach their 2030 clean technology targets. While reaching net zero will require more than just these nine technologies to be scaled up, their current status serves as a clear indicator of whether these regions are on track to reach net zero by 2050.

Who is most Worried about Heat and Air Pollution in India?, Verner et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Most people in India are worried about severe heat and air pollution in their local area. Younger and middle-aged adults are more likely than older adults to be “very worried” about severe heat and air pollution. Indians with Bachelor’s degree or higher are more likely to be very worried about severe air pollution.

New Mexico 360 Groundwater Report, Follingstad et al., New Mexico Groundwater Alliance Members

Treat aquifers as critical infrastructure. Accelerate aquifer mapping, monitoring, and characterization. Expand statewide groundwater metering. Develop a statewide groundwater management framework to guide local management. Ensure that groundwater is fully understood and addressed in regional water planning and other community-based conservation initiatives.

Global Risks Report 2026, Elsner et al., World Economic Forum

The authors analyze global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 presents the findings of this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide. It explores risks in the current or immediate term (in 2026), the short-to-medium term (to 2028) and in the long term (to 2036). Chapter 2 explores the range of implications of these risks and their interconnections, through six in-depth analyses of selected themes. Uncertainty is the defining theme of the global risks outlook in 2026. GRPS respondents viewed both the short- and long-term global outlook negatively, with 50% of respondents anticipating either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years, deteriorating to 57% of respondents over the next 10 years. A further 40% and 32%, respectively, view the global outlook as unsettled over the two- and 10-year time frames, with only 1% anticipating a calm outlook across each time horizon. As global risks continue to spiral in scale, interconnectivity and velocity, 2026 marks an age of competition. As cooperative mechanisms crumble, with governments retreating from multilateral frameworks, stability is under siege. A contested multipolar landscape is emerging where confrontation is replacing collaboration, and trust – the currency of cooperation – is losing its value.

Carbon farming in organic agriculture. Considerations under EU policy, Lisa Sinnhuber, Research Institute of Organic Agriculture and IFOAM Organics Europe

The author outlines the challenges that organic farmers face within current carbon crediting schemes, and sets out guidelines on what to consider before participating in carbon farming initiatives.

Reenergizing Nuclear, Houwink et al., Columbia Business School

Properly managed nuclear is safe, land efficient, and low waste compared with other energy sources. Nuclear energy use has decreased from its peak of 17% to 9% today, and deployments have moved from Europe and the United States to India and China. Nuclear is expected to generate 7% to 11% of global electricity by 2050, growing capacity 1.5 to 3x. There are four pathways for the future of nuclear power: Extending the lifetime of nuclear plants, which has the lowest LCOE and can be safe; building new large reactors, which would significantly reduce emissions but is costly and time intensive; building small modular reactors (SMRs), which provide more flexible nuclear power, but LCOE is still highly uncertain; and nuclear fusion, which addresses many of nuclear’s problems, if the technology can be commercialized.

Solar met 61% of US electricity demand growth in 2025, Jones et al., Ember

Solar generation met a large proportion of US electricity demand growth in 2025, including in regions where demand rose most. It met all the rise in daytime electricity demand and, supported by batteries, also met much of the rise in evening electricity demand.

Renewable Energy and Jobs. Annual Review 2025, Renner et al., The International Renewable Energy Agency and the International Labour Organization

The authors show that renewable energy employment worldwide has continued to grow. They estimate there are at least 16.6 million jobs in renewable energy employment globally. Despite record capacity additions in 2024, employment growth was moderated by economies of scale; automation and other forms of technological innovation; excess equipment manufacturing capacity; and grid bottlenecks leading to curtailment of electricity generation. The authors found that women still face barriers to hiring and career advancement, and people with disabilities are only just beginning to receive more opportunities. They conclude that the human side of renewable energy is still too often overlooked or taken for granted. Continued growth in renewable energy deployment will keep adding to employment in the sector. This means that education and training need to be a key component of a comprehensive policy approach that brings together deployment support, finance and investment, industrial and trade policies for supply chain building, economic development and revitalization, and inclusive workforce development.

Global Water Bankruptcy. Living Beyond our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era, Madani et al., United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health

The authors argue that the world has entered a new stage: more and more river basins and aquifers are losing the ability to return to their historical “normal.” Droughts, shortages, and pollution episodes that once looked like temporary shocks are becoming chronic in many places, signaling a post-crisis condition the author calls water bankruptcy. The authors propose that a fundamental shift is needed in the global water agenda—from repeatedly reacting to emergencies to “bankruptcy management.” That means confronting overshoot with transparent water accounting, enforceable limits, and protection of the water-related natural capital that produces and stores water—aquifers, wetlands, soils, rivers, and glaciers—while ensuring transitions are explicitly equity-oriented and protect vulnerable communities and livelihoods. Crucially, the authors frame water not only as a growing source of risk, but also as a strategic opportunity in a fragmented world. It argues that serious investment in water can unlock progress across climate, biodiversity, land, food, and health, and serve as a practical platform for cooperation within and between societies. Acting early, before stress hardens into irreversible loss, can reduce shared risks, strengthen resilience, and rebuild trust through tangible results.

Insurance and reinsurance under climate stress: managing systemic risk in global supply chains, Mikael Mikaelsson, Stockholm Environment Institute

As climate change accelerates, global supply chains – long optimized for efficiency rather than resilience – are increasingly exposed to a rising tide of climate-related disruptions. These shocks are rarely isolated. They cascade across borders and sectors, disrupting production, logistics, and trade in ways that reveal deep systemic vulnerabilities in the arteries of the global economy. At the same time insurance and reinsurance, the financial mechanisms historically relied upon to absorb such shocks, are being tested by the growing complexity, frequency, and severity of climate hazards. The author draws on a literature review and expert consultations with senior climate risk specialists across the European (re)insurance ecosystem to explore how insurance interacts with climate vulnerability in key sectors and supply chains. They also investigate the changing nature of insurance in a world of compounding risk, and outline what this means for economic stability, sectoral preparedness, and future adaptation efforts.

Climate Update 2026: Social Perspectives on the Climate Protection Debate, More on Common

How do people in Germany view the climate protection debate at the beginning of 2026? New data show that despite increased competition from other political and social challenges, support for climate action remains high. However, it is important to strengthen confidence to ensure a fair and forward-looking implementation. The authors analyze how attitudes, expectations, and key areas of tension have developed in the climate protection debate in Germany. The study builds on our many years of research and offers the current social context for all those who work politically, civil society or communicatively on climate protection issues.

Neighborhood Scale Building Decarbonization. A Toolkit for Advocates and Implementers, Zoë Cina-Sklar and Sonal Jessel, Climate and Community Institute

Neighborhood-scale building decarbonization shifts the unit of building decarbonization from the building to the block, from the individual to the community. By approaching decarbonization at the scale of a block or a neighborhood, all residents in the chosen geography benefit and per-home project costs can decrease through economies of scale. Importantly, it also helps manage the gas transition and ensure that lower-income households are not stuck on aging gas infrastructure. When done right, it can also offer an opportunity to go beyond simply installing electric appliances to also address environmental toxins, improve energy efficiency, and install solar and battery storage. This approach lowers utility bills and creates healthy homes for all residents, regardless of whether they are rich or own their home.

Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, Government of the United Kingdom

This assessment is an analysis of how global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse could affect UK national security. It shows how environmental degradation can disrupt food, water, health and supply chains, and trigger wider geopolitical instability. It identifies 6 ecosystems of strategic importance for the UK and explores how their decline could drive cascading global impacts. This assessment supports long-term resilience planning. Publishing the assessment highlights opportunities for innovation, green finance and global partnerships that can drive growth while safeguarding the ecosystems that underpin our collective security and prosperity.

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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Wednesday, 21 January, 2026


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