Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2026

Open access notables

A desk piled high with research reports

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications

Here, we compile and evaluate standardized Holocene vertical accretion rates and coral community structure data from 288 Indo-Pacific paleo-reef records across 92 sites to examine intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of accretion. Our findings reveal that reef formation and long-term accretion are determined by a complex interplay between sea-level change and eco-geomorphological factors. Maximum vertical accretion rates indicate that many Indo-Pacific reefs do not have the capacity to keep pace with projected rates of sea-level rise, particularly under high-emissions scenario (76% of reef sites). Critical thresholds suggest that reef accretion is very unlikely (>90% probability) to be maintained when relative sea-level rise rate exceeds 5.3 mm yr−1, a scenario likely to be surpassed within ~35 years. Without substantial reductions in global emissions, many coral reefs face increasing risk of submergence, structural collapse and loss of critical ecosystem services, especially where modern coral communities differ from predominantly competitive Holocene assemblages and are increasingly dominated by weedy taxa.

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change, but its global estimates are still uncertain. While livestock are known to produce large amounts of methane, wild animals also emit methane during digestion. In this study, we estimate methane emissions from wild ruminants worldwide using a new spatial data set. We combine global information on species distributions and population sizes with a relationship that links body mass to methane emissions and estimate emissions across the globe. Our results suggest that wild ruminants emit about 2.95 Tg (Tg) of methane per year globally. This estimate is lower than values derived from the IPCC Tier 1 method (∼15 Tg yr−1) but is consistent with previous body-mass-based studies. Although uncertainties remain, mainly in population data and seasonal variability, this work provides a transparent baseline estimate of methane emissions from wild ruminants that can support global methane budget studies and atmospheric modeling.

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Roughly one-third of the global precipitation originates from the deep tropics where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) plays a central role. Even small shifts in this narrow band of intense rainfall can drive major regional hydrological changes both at seasonal and longer timescales, as exemplified by the prolonged Sahel drought of the late 20th century. Studies have attributed the southward migration of the ITCZ during the late 20th century to a larger concentration of aerosols over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at the time. A growing record of observations now reveal a northward migration of the ITCZ over the past four decades that is, a reversal in the ITCZ shift trend. In this study, we find that both a reduction in aerosols over the NH along with a global increase in greenhouse gases have contributed to this recent reversal in the ITCZ shift. The northward displacement of the ITCZ over the satellite era aligns with observed hemispheric asymmetries in Earth's albedo trends and reinforces model projections of further northward shifts in the decades ahead.

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science

We propose a model showing that taking an active role in stopping the spread of misinformation reduces its impact. To do this, we generalize the Maki–Thompson rumour model, where the population consists of spreaders, ignorants and stiflers. Spreaders try to spread the rumour through directed contacts. When a spreader contacts an ignorant, the ignorant becomes a spreader; otherwise, the initiating spreader becomes a stifler. In finite populations, the process reaches an equilibrium in which every individual is either a stifler or an ignorant. Our generalization adds a class of aware individuals who recognize the information as false. In a passive role, an aware individual exposed to misinformation simply avoids spreading it. In an active role, the aware individual not only refuses to propagate the rumour but also stops the spread by the contacting person. For homogeneously mixed populations, we prove limit theorems for the final proportion of ignorants as a function of the proportion of aware individuals and the probability of acting actively or passively. For populations represented by random networks, we perform computational analyses to compare both scenarios and find that propagation decreases sharply in active environments, with the largest differences occurring when awareness is about 30–40%.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate changeRobert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas pricesChris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency.

115 articles in 63 journals by 704 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Episodic Slowdown of Global Warming by a Multiyear La Niña, Iwakiri & Kohyama, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0686.1

Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes, Mehling et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aed2633

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Arctic Mixed Layer Depth, Eisner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024063

Multi-scale drivers of compound day-night heatwaves in Shanghai, China (1873–2023): The role of asymmetric warming, oceanic modes, and urbanization, LIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.012

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Impacts, Mechanisms, and Challenges, He et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70077

Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change, Hamal & Pfahl, Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) Open Access pmh:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/52806

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback, Loon et al., ArXiv.org Open Access pdf pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2603.12515

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

The Nonmonotonicity of Moist-Adiabatic Warming, Miyawaki, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0099.1


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Radiative Heating of High-Level Clouds and Its Impacts on Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040850 12 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Air temperature trend analysis for the Cananéia–Iguape Coastal System (São Paulo State, Brazil), 1981–2022, using reanalysis products evaluated against surface observations, Baratto et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Open Access 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101676

Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001?2022), CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009

Disentangling internal and external impacts on increasing compound heat waves over the Yangtze River valley, Xie et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100927

Emergence of Subsurface Warming in the Southern Ocean Gateway Between New Zealand and Antarctica, Ferola et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121465

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013

Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea1277

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Drought, Heatwave and Compound Extremes in Saudi Arabia From 1984 to 2023: A Comprehensive Analysis, Kamruzzaman, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70404


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49677-0 36 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Evaluation of ERA5, ERA5-Land, CERRA and NEWA datasets in reproducing observed near-surface wind speeds across Spain, Plaza-Martín et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.011

Observed Trends and Variability in the Water Masses of the Southern Ocean, Wyatt et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023852


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
CODC-v1: a quality-controlled and bias-corrected ocean temperature profile database from 1940–2023, Scientific Data, 10.1038/s41597-024-03494-8 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo-Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability, Cetin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045816

Projected Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Activity Under Climate Change Scenario in East Asia, Byun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045725

Reduced Future North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Variability in High-Resolution, Fully Coupled Global Climate Models, Baker et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in the Typhoon Intensity under a Warming Climate: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Mangkhut, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0567.1 10 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Bias correction of CMIP6 models using quantile delta mapping for projecting future IDF curves: case study of the hyderabad metropolitan region, Saravanan & Ji, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-026-06366-w

Development of a PCA-based climatic similarity index to enhance weather file selection criteria for climate-based daylight modelling simulations in tropical climates, Aw et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58112-x

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice, Hossain et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121289

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Incorporation of RCM-simulated spatial details into climate change projections derived from global climate models, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07258-3 7 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Aufeis in a warming world: Global patterns, processes, and environmental implications, Li et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105590

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse, Kypke et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

Past, present and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt, 1500–2200 CE, Hanna et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00800-3

Understanding slow glacier flow under climate change: A case study on Vernagtferner, Austria, Dobler et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2531-2026


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7 28 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise, McCormack et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1 9 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Commentary: Reframing Massive Carbon Input During the PETM and a Grand 66 Million Year Geoscience Puzzle, Dickens, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124011

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74612-w

Rapid warming in South America during the last deglaciation, Ampuero et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74093-x


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Controlling factors for the global meridional overturning circulation: A lesson from the Paleozoic, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adm7813 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Conspecific density and reproductive trade-offs govern population response to climate in a clonal wildflower, Loesberg & Williams, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70376

Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change, Tang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03759-7

Extreme weather effects on marine predator breeding outcomes in a global climate change hotspot, Sojitra et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aea3220

On the collapse of an endemic reef-building coral species, Morais et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108201

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Interactions Between Plants and Avian Frugivores Across the Americas, Rabeau et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70271

Projecting biodiversity change to support climate-smart ocean planning in Portugal, julien et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-026-00216-y

Significant Coastal Dune Loss Challenges California's Climate Resilience and Biodiversity Goals, Baxter et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007790

Temperate local extinctions from climate change are outpacing tropical extinctions, Murali et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02669-y

Tropical climate modes control strength and distribution of thermal stress mitigation in a coral reef refugia, Camelia et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-52941-6

Variation in bud set phenology, autumn frost tolerance and non-structural carbohydrates among white spruce seed sources on climate-contrasted test sites: implications for assisted migration, Analy et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1753580


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn9660 75 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aerosol source apportionment modelling using a coupled regional–urban scale system, Caspel et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-8575-2026

Cross-stressor resilience of soil microbial growth and carbon metabolism under climate change, Li et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70439

Dissecting mesopelagic particulate organic carbon budgets in the North Atlantic: A mechanistic diagnosis and evaluation of PISCESv2_RC, Orihuela-García et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-4083-2026

Dissimilar roles of aerosols, nitrogen deposition and ozone on the terrestrial carbon sink in China during 2010–2020, Xie et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5925-2026

Divergent responses of soil organic and inorganic carbon driven by land use during coastal reclamation, Zhai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74876-2

Efficient preservation of old methane-derived organic carbon in deep-sea surface sediments, Bao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74250-2

Greenhouse gas emissions from freshwater wetlands of the Doon Valley, Northwest Himalaya, India, Baiswar et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-50605-z

Hotspots of Arctic and sub-Arctic marine sediment organic carbon are dominated by the Baltic, Barents and Chukchi Seas, Langley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03720-8

Long-term multiple global change interactions amplify belowground carbon allocation, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02678-x

National pathways of land-use CO? emissions in the 21st century, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74836-w

Quantifying and Mapping Regional C, N and P Stocks From Temperate Fens, Bogs, and Forested Peatlands Using Detailed Peat Bathymetry, Arsenault et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009407

Role of Future Climate Change, Air Pollution Control and Methane Mitigation in Driving Hydroxyl Radical (OH) and Methane Lifetime, Chua, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.5281/zenodo.18894153

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009855


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49743-7 184 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Geomechanical characterization of reservoir and caprock integrity for CO2 sequestration assessment in the Jaisalmer Basin, India, Hembram et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-026-02797-1


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The effects of policy uncertainty and risk aversion on carbon capture, utilization, and storage investments, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114212 12 cites.

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Decarbonization

Sector-specific carbon emission trajectories in Beijing (2025–2035): a STIRPAT–LEAP coupled framework for identifying optimal decarbonization pathways, ZHANG et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1834206

Strong plans, weak levers: Identifying institutional limits to reducing car dependence in Finland, Lyly & Ghorbani, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104737


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1 86 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Compensation of Ocean Latent Heat to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Induced Cooling and Its Comparison to Volcanic Aerosols, Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023882


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02046-7 20 cites.

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Black carbon

Investigation of Black Carbon characteristics over the Arctic: Contribution of fossil fuel and biomass burning, Kumar & Srivastava, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122188


Aerosols

Insights into spring dust aerosol trends over North China from CMIP6 historical simulations and multi-source observations, Sha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109163

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

Substantial Diel Changes of Cloud Adjustments to Aerosols in Ship-Tracks, Yuan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121979


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024 3 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Climate advocacy and activism by scientists: A narrative review, Finnerty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000942

Crowdsourcing Activities for Climate Change Mitigation—Implementation, Opportunities, and Prospects, Wechsler et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0086.1

Disagreement among friends: a collaboration-based framework for reducing polarization on climate change, McGrath, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2683947

Governmental efficacy is a key psychological pathway to climate action, Goldwert et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03743-1

Green Is the New Bad Libertarian Populism and the Edgar Friendly Style of Climate Denial, Bellolio, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2691473

Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change, Flack et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2663476

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.252404

The relationship between future anxiety and global climate change awareness among physiotherapy students in Turkey: a cross-sectional study, Akaras & Sözlü, BMC Medical Education Open Access 10.1186/s12909-026-09696-5


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Widespread misestimates of greenhouse gas emissions suggest low carbon competence, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02032-z 47 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Carbon storage, climate resilience, and livelihoods in coffee agroforestry systems: a systematic review, Omer et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1865283

Impact of land use change on the long-term economic value of carbon sequestration in Central Alborz, Iran, Joloro et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58621-9

Regional variability in climate stress, adaptation strategies and resilience among smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: a systematic review, Amanje & Zhou, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1787495

The future fate of Somali upwelling productivity and the implications for fisheries under climate change, Jacobs et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-55455-3


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions, Carbon Management, 10.1080/17583004.2024.2365896 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100915

Comparative hydro-climatic datasets for catchment-wise linked water fluxes and storage changes across South America, Zarei & Destouni, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1764771

Contesting “climate solutionism”: Critical perspectives from the water-climate nexus, Wilson & Shah, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103185

Differential impacts of vegetation greening on evapotranspiration components across climate zones and vegetation types in China, Huo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111309

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

Synergistic pathways to mitigate climate and water scarcity risks, Lv et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01880-1

Water-Limited to Energy-Limited: Seasonal Transitions in Evapotranspiration Controls Across Southern Peninsular India Under Climate Change, Hasanapuram et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106876


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Phase and Amplitude Changes in Rainfall Annual Cycle Over Global Land Monsoon Regions Under Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108496 13 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate change as a macro-financial risk multiplier: evidence from private sector credit in fragile sub-Saharan Africa, Mohamed et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1872050

Comprehensive national climate damage assessments framework applied to the UK, Rising et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02665-2

Reconciling fiscal resilience with low-carbon energy goals: Sri Lanka's carbon-aligned fuel pricing, Heenkenda & Park, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115458


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of air transportation, trade openness, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1366054 20 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Abating industrial nitrous oxide emissions in the United States: legal, economic and scientific dimensions, Kanter et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2662997

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Editorial: A strategic nexus for enhancing system resilience: advancing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, managing water resources, and controlling air pollution in the industrial sector, Wang & Shao, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835218

Evaluation of household electricity cost burden under Japan's green transformation, Zhou et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115360

Fire risk mitigation underpins durable Nature-based Climate Solutions in the Amazon, Hari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03765-9

Just-ish Transition: Rethinking justice in practice in South Korea's coal phase-out, Lee et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104744

The possible institutionalisation of the carbon removal budget concept across the UNFCCC, UNCBD, and corporate net-zero strategies, Bencini & Iozzelli, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104390


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Effect of renewable energy subsidy policy on firms’ total factor productivity: The threshold effect, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114241 33 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Analyzing climate risks in the Indian automotive sector using a capability based approach, Gund et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1790120

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Building climate resilience: a systematic literature review of climate change adaptation efforts in Norwegian municipalities, Bakke & Sydnes, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100847

Global Renewable Energy Infrastructure Resilience Under Climate Risks, Hong et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70273

Rewriting the climate social contract: adaptation, equity, and indigenous rights in Aotearoa New Zealand, Parsons, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103161

Spatiotemporal evolution of cumulative power shortage risks in China under 2 °C warming, Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.016

What climate adaptation can learn from evolutionary adaptation, Waananen et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70343


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cross-border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.905 9 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Association of short-term ambient heat exposure with maternal anxiety for fetal health: examining the role of heatwave and climate change risk perception, WU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.007

Global heat stress intensification and its expanding footprint on the human population, Emerton et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02670-5

Integrating the Health Sector Into Nationally Determined Contributions: Challenges, Opportunities and Pathways for Climate Resilient Health Systems, Manyele & Anicetus, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70044


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk, Ecography, 10.1111/ecog.06942 15 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Testing Arctic exceptionalism under global tensions: climate change, geopolitics, and the strategic value of the Northern Sea Route, Chen et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access pdf 10.1057/s41599-026-07384-9


Climate change impacts on human culture

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8 36 cites.

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Other

A Conceptual Integration of Climate Justice: Taxonomy of Climate Justice Integrating Theory and Policy Practice, Anjum & Aziz, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70078

Assessing early oil industry awareness of the impacts of fossil fuels on coral reefs using a novel AI agent, Franta et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00215-z

From helicopter to satellite science: shifting climate research practices in Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya, Stuart et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1781604

New list of political jobs at science agencies called ‘weird and capricious’, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aej7945

Russia plans deep quest for ‘endless oil’, Dobrovidova, Science 10.1126/science.aej7952


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Observations of diapycnal upwelling within a sloping submarine canyon, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07411-2 25 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Europe must seize the moment to lead on free and open science, [authors did not process], Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01953-3

The future of global ocean observations: five scenarios, Lehman et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00219-9

‘Alternative COP’ must drive real, cooperative change in climate action, [authors did not process], Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-01423-w


Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103803 14 cites.

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Book reviews

Rejecting climate doomism, Jacques, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2687244

Why heritage sites are at risk in a warming world — and how to save them, Megarry, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01956-0

 


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Powering Down Prices: Policy Solutions to Lower California’s Electricity Rates, Travis Ritchie and Ethan Elkind, The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, UC Berkeley Law

The authors seek to develop actionable solutions to reduce electricity rates in California while furthering the state’s clean energy and climate goals. The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment at UC Berkeley Law (CLEE) convened electricity and utility experts to identify pragmatic and impactful ideas and to assess potential solutions to address electricity affordability in California. Additional research and outreach with stakeholders and decisionmakers led to the development and implementation of the analysis and practical solutions contained herein. Potential reforms include the California Legislature and Public Utilities Commission could limit the use of single-issue ratemaking mandates and tracking accounts, absent extraordinary circumstances. The legislature could increase public and public-private partnership funding of utility capital expenditures. The legislature could direct the public utilities commission to consider further reducing return on equity (in whole or in part), including a split return on equity with a lower return on wildfire mitigation plan and utility infrastructure undergrounding capital expenditures. State and local governments could increase logistical and financial support for community hardening to protect communities and redirect utility mitigation expenses toward efforts that reduce liability. The legislature or leading stakeholders could research and propose longer-term governance reform of the CPUC, including potential measures such as splitting its jurisdiction between energy and other sectors and altering the quasi-judicial processes.

Climate risk in global data center markets, First Street

The authors quantify physical climate risk across 97 investible data center markets and the implications for their underwriting, financing, and valuation. Climate risk already impacts data center markets. Approximately 54% of global capacity operates under chronic stress conditions such as extreme heat or water scarcity, while 79% is exposed to acute hazards, including flood, wind, or wildfire. These risks do not affect all markets equally, creating widening gaps in operating performance, financing conditions, and long-term valuation outcomes, as assets in higher-exposure locations face sustained cost pressures, greater outage risk, and increasing pressure on cash-flow durability. Despite this, climate risk remains underpriced. Markets with similar demand and infrastructure fundamentals are being underwritten as equivalent, even as their long-term cost structures and reliability profiles diverge. This misalignment is beginning to show up in net operating income stability, insurance availability, debt capacity, refinancing terms, and exit valuations. For investors, lenders, and operators, the implications for data centers are clear: climate risk is no longer peripheral. It is a core driver of operating performance, valuation, and credit quality for data centers as an asset class, and it has to be built directly into underwriting, pricing, and capital allocation.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices, Chris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency.

Fixing Climate Communications. Moving beyond narrow narratives to power durable progress, Potential Energy Coalition

Data shows that telling simple, human stories about the impact of an overheating planet on people’s everyday lives is the single best way to power new progress. The authors conducted extensive global research to identify the narratives best positioned to grow the audience; drive increased issue prioritization; inform public dialogue and decision-making; inspire leaders to champion climate solutions; and permeate new media and culture. With the right message, climate change can once again become a broadly relevant public issue. Climate action can become a top citizen priority, a top policy priority, and a message that spreads. The support is still there.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Lithium, Nicole Pouy, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Lithium is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is used in high-performance batteries for electric vehicles, grid storage systems, and consumer electronics, as well as in the production of metals, ceramics, and pharmaceuticals. It is classified by the U.S. Department of Energy as “highly critical” in the medium term (through 2035) due to its importance for energy applications and exposure to supply chain risks.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Cobalt, Laura Gries, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Cobalt is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is widely used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and electronics, and in superalloys for aerospace and industrial applications. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) classifies cobalt as having medium to high importance to the clean energy transition through 2035.

Prospects for U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Energy Cooperation, Christopher Blanchard and Paul Kerr, Congressional Research Service

The 119th Congress is engaging the Trump Administration with regard to U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia's National Project for Atomic Energy and proposals for U.S.-Saudi nuclear energy cooperation. During Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's visit to the United States in November 2025, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a "Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation." Questions surrounding nuclear safeguards, monitoring, and potential production or supply of nuclear fuel are central to the debate in Congress over possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation. Unless waived, a provision of current law (P.L. 116-92, §1264; 42 U.S.C. §2153 note) restricts the executive branch from submitting a Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) required for congressional review of 123 agreements for countries, like Saudi Arabia, that have not agreed to certain international safeguards. Published excerpts of an Administration report to Congress waiving this restriction state that a draft U.S.-Saudi 123 agreement would be implemented with a Bilateral Safeguards Agreement that, "with the involvement" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), would employ not yet publicly specified "additional safeguards and verification measures to the most proliferation sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation."

Advanced Geothermal Energy Is Widely Available, Clean, and Maybe Cheap Enough to Make a Big Impact, Robin Gaster, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

Three advanced geothermal technologies—Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), Advanced Geothermal Systems (AGS), and Superhot Rock Geothermal (SHR)—are poised to transform geothermal from a niche resource into a significant contributor to the U.S. energy mix. EGS produces energy at commercial scale by drilling deeper and applying techniques from oil and gas fracking to geothermal. It has enormous potential. Traditional geothermal faces limitations in identifying and exploiting underground water or brine reservoirs. EGS instead works with hot dry rocks much further underground. Fervo is the industry leader in EGS. It has generated energy at commercial scale and found commercial demand for its output. Its technology is advancing rapidly, and it is successfully funding development with outside capital. However, EGS understandably still relies on clean energy mandates and federal subsidies. More cost reductions will come as the technology scales, and EGS appears to be on the path to price/performance parity with fossil fuels and cheap renewables.

Electric Collective: Europe's Clean Energy Future Without Russia, European Council on Foreign Relations, Szymon Karda?

Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, the EU and member states embarked on “energy diplomacy” in search of new international supplies of energy. Between 2021 and 2026, the EU successfully diversified its sources of energy and reduced its' dependence on Russian fossil fuels. It began working more closely with partners around the world on clean electricity imports and critical raw materials. However, structural weaknesses remain for the EU, including a paucity of clean energy agreements and a preponderance of gas deals locking Europeans into fossil fuel reliance. Most energy diplomacy was undertaken by individual member states. Europeans are therefore currently missing out on the energy security benefits of joint action led either by the EU or by collectives of member states. To strengthen their international energy cooperation, the EU and its member states should agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework, conclude more binding agreements that incorporate clean energy components and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels.

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, Robert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, Smith et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors update the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimate that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.

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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 25 June, 2026


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