A horizon scan of global catastrophic risks, Turchin & Green, Cell One Earth
A number of global catastrophic risks—nuclear war, pandemics, global food-system collapses, and more—threaten sustainable human life on Earth. These risks often share drivers and emerge from many interrelated factors. Which contributors to prioritize for research and policy has not yet been systematically assessed. Here, we present a horizon scan of contributors to global catastrophic risk, with an emphasis on new or neglected threats. 25 academics from diverse disciplinary backgrounds submitted 96 issues, which were then cut down to 15 priority issues through a structured expert elicitation procedure. Themes included the integration of artificial intelligence into military and security systems, fragile global trade networks, climate change impacts, and institutional failures undermining risk reduction efforts. Our findings provide a prioritized agenda for reducing global catastrophic risk that highlights the diversity of risk factors and the importance of addressing drivers that underpin numerous individual risks.
Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth, Dyke et al., Environmental Research Letters
The risk of a ‘Hothouse Earth’ trajectory has become increasingly prominent in debates about Earth system stability and climate overshoot. Existing analyses primarily focus on biophysical feedbacks that may amplify warming beyond direct anthropogenic forcing. We argue the concept has not previously incorporated how social destabilisation lowers the effective threshold at which biophysical tipping dynamics become self-sustaining, independently of further anthropogenic forcing and so undermines the capacity for planetary stewardship. We define ‘derailment risk’ as the possibility that escalating Earth system disruption weakens the social, political, and economic conditions required to sustain mitigation, adaptation, and ecological restoration. Such risks emerge when climate impacts contribute to a wide range of challenges, including debt crises, institutional erosion, political fragmentation, supply-chain instability, and declining public support for environmental action. These reinforcing feedbacks may reduce humanity’s capacity to respond even before biophysical tipping thresholds are crossed. We therefore extend the Hothouse Earth framework by incorporating social dynamics into the Earth system stability landscape. We propose a three-stage framework for assessing and managing derailment risks: conceptual mapping of socio-biophysical feedbacks; anticipatory resilience-building interventions; responsive governance strategies for periods of escalating instability. We conclude that planetary stewardship should prioritise maintaining and expanding collective agency under worsening Earth system stress.
All IPCC AR6 regions are close to their 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-equivalent warming limits, Li et al., Nature Climate Change
Global temperatures have averaged 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels over the past decade, yet regional warming patterns and remaining warming budgets under Paris Agreement limits remain uncertain owing to insufficient historical observations. Here we quantify and attribute warming across all IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) regions since pre-industrial times using a Bayesian framework combining multi-model simulations with observations, enabling robust estimates in data-sparse regions. Regional warming is already pronounced. By 2025, attributed regional warming had reached about 90–94% of the levels expected at 1.5 °C global warming and 65–76% of those expected at 2 °C. Attribution confidence is the highest in tropical regions, including much of Africa, where low internal variability enables robust results. Attributed warming is the greatest in northern high-latitude regions, exceeding 2.5 °C. Greenhouse gases dominate, partially offset by aerosol cooling. These results reveal that current warming is already indistinguishable from a 1.5 °C world, highlighting the shared urgency of adaptation across all regions.
Zero emissions commitment depends on warming level, Gibbs et al., Nature Climate Change
When anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, global temperature does not stabilize immediately. The resulting global temperature change, the zero emissions commitment, is central to carbon budget assessments and understanding reversibility of global warming, yet its dependence on prior warming levels remains unclear. Here we show, using zero-emission simulations with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1.2) across global warming levels of 1.5–5 K, that the zero emissions commitment stays near zero up to 2 K but becomes positive at higher warming levels, reaching 0.4–0.6 K after ~ 150 years. This dependence indicates that stabilizing or reversing warming becomes progressively more difficult as peak temperature rises. We identify the mechanism behind this behaviour: stronger warming from higher radiative disequilibrium and weakening carbon sinks, driven by saturated land carbon uptake and the reduced radiative impact of CO2 drawdown at higher background CO2 concentrations. Higher peak warming therefore commits the planet to additional warming, limiting temperature-overshoot reversibility.
A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline, Quéré et al., Nature Climate Change
Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have grown 0.8% per year on average between 2019 and 2025. Here we project a decrease of 0.4% in 2026, probably as a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. Electric vehicles and solar and wind power offset about 64–79% of increasing emissions from demand growth through 2028; acceleration in clean technology deployment is needed to guarantee emissions peak and subsequent decline.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet:Somalia, Seyuba et al., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The authors focus on Somalia and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the region. The authors offer a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
No Escape III - Displaced voices from the frontlines of the climate crisis, The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Millions of people across the globe continue to be forced to flee their homes because of violence, conflict, and climate-related hazards. In fact, the number of forcibly displaced people in the world today has never been higher – doubling to more than 120 million people over the past 10 years. While conflict remains the primary driver of displacement, climate change can aggravate an already devastating reality. Its effects disproportionately affect the world’s most vulnerable populations – including refugees, internally displaced people and the communities hosting them. Often lacking critical resources such as stable housing, financial security, institutional support, or access to essential services, displaced people now also struggle to prepare for, adapt or recover from disasters like floods, droughts and heatwaves. While the situation is dire, this report demonstrates sustainable solutions are within reach. Worst-case scenarios can be avoided, through integrated approaches that are climate-smart, protection- and gender-centered, human rights-based, conflict-sensitive, and peace-responsive. The report therefore concludes with a strong call to action including: PROTECT displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools, INCLUDE the voices and specific needs of displaced populations and host communities in climate finance and policy decisions, INVEST in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings, and ACCELERATE the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimize further displacement.
Physical science of climate change, effects
A moisture dynamics perspective on robust changes in characteristics of the tropical circulation under warming, Tomassini, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.260963
Correct use of radiative efficiencies in calculating global warming potentials and other emission metrics, Collins et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-15757-2026
Enhanced influence of the North Pacific Meridional Mode on the western North Pacific tropical cyclones in a warming climate, Liu et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aebbd5
Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth, Dyke et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de
Projected Amazon forest loss alters tropical Atlantic circulation and surface heat exchange through reduced freshwater input, Gouveia et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-79941-w
Redistribution of Light Absorption by Chlorophyll Decline Delays Warming by Up to a Decade, Meng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc023451
Three-way circulation–soil moisture–temperature feedbacks amplify the most extreme mid-latitudinal heat waves, Tian et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeh9111
What Sets the AMOC's Sensitivity to CO2 Forcing? The Role of Background Mean-State and Density Balance, Ferster, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21889993
Zero emissions commitment depends on warming level, Gibbs et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02776-w
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 2°C Global Warming, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0104.1 17 cites.
Observations of climate change, effects
All IPCC AR6 regions are close to their 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-equivalent warming limits, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02790-y
Climate Variability for a 150-Year (1862–2011) Meteo-Hydrological Series in the Italian Alps at Different Time Scales, Eccel & Ranzi, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70657
Consistent Sea-Level and Energy Budget Residuals Suggest Enhanced Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake Since the Mid-2010s, Cha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl125563
Divergent hydroclimatic responses across Eurasia: Evidence from multiple datasets and CMIP6 projections, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.11.002
Examining climate trends and extremes in Janamora District Ethiopia from 1982 to 2024, Chekol et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-05218-x
Geographical Distribution of Exposure to Fires in the United States Between 2004 and 2023, Sakka et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gh001455
Higher prevalence of rising climate-driven snowmelt potential of rain-on-snow events in the Eastern continental US, Salvi et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aebbd2
Influence of natural and anthropogenic forcings on western US winter fire weather and the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, Srivastava et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb710
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Emerging Climate Change Signals in Atmospheric Circulation, AGU Advances, 10.1029/2024av001297 72 cites.
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Daily global sea surface ageostrophic current dataset from 1993–2023 via physics-informed deep learning, Cui, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.23901901
Definition- and dataset-dependent characterization of global compound drought–heat extremes, Wu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100972
Estimating the resilience of non-stationary systems, Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78489-7
TurboMeter: an attribution framework for aviation turbulence events in a changing climate, Alberti et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-2229-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A Mystery of the Inconsistency Between Microwave Polarimetric Observations and Radiative Transfer Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl111553 2 cites.
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Boreal autumn to winter North Atlantic atmosphere–ocean coupling in large ensemble climate simulations, Anderson et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-2155-2026
Divergent hydroclimatic responses across Eurasia: Evidence from multiple datasets and CMIP6 projections, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.11.002
Extratropical Forcing of Tropical Subsurface Oxygenation Under Future Warming, Gao et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009285
Hailstorm responses to climate change across diverse synoptic environments in South Korea: A pseudo-global warming study, Choi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109432
Mountains Modulate the Response of Precipitation Flashiness to Warming in High-Resolution Simulations Over the Western US, Koszuta et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125264
Near-Future Strengthening of ENSO-Related Sea Ice Variability in West Antarctica, Kim et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0028.1
Post-Fire Surface Energy Partitioning and Thermal Responses in Arctic Boreal Forests and Tundra, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125479
Recent extreme heatwaves are no match for future events, Aglas-Leitner et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76809-5
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02171-3 18 cites.
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Enhanced Land-Surface Processes Sustain Evapotranspiration and Improve Tropical Climate Variability in a Coupled Earth System Model, Rajesh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd047646
Exploring Recent Changes in Tornado Activity via an Environment-Based Tornado Count Model for CMIP6 Applications, Malloy et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0441.1
Forcing dataset updates impact regional but not global Earth radiation budget trends in the GFDL AM4 climate model, Wang et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-006-0431-5
Performance of Earth System Models in Representing Vegetation Functional Response to Heat and Water Stresses, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009423
The Impact of Lakes in North American Regional Climate Simulations, Mahdinia et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0146.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6, Geoscientific model development, 10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024 62 cites.
Cryosphere & climate change
A Prospective Cooling Machine for the Svalbard Branch of Norwegian Atlantic Water in a Future Climate, Wu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009526
Higher prevalence of rising climate-driven snowmelt potential of rain-on-snow events in the Eastern continental US, Salvi et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aebbd2
Ice–ocean albedo feedback as a key mechanism driving recent Antarctic summer sea-ice decline, Nihashi & Ohshima, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-70282-2
Impact of Wildfire-Emitted Black Carbon on Snowmelt Across Western North America, Jaisawal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046919
Loss of snow persistence during late season drives snow-season shortening in Northeast China under global warming, Xiao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04156-w
No Longer Polar Opposites: The Arctic and the Antarctic Are Converging toward a Seasonally Dominated Sea Ice Regime, Spira et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0340.1
Vanishing Winters and Shrinking Ice: Ecosystem Services and Societal Impacts in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Xenopoulos et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009213
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations, The Cryosphere, 10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024 9 cites.
Sea level & climate change
Forecasting legal coastline based on highest astronomical tide as a predictive model for land–sea integration, Setiyadi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-79942-9
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The curve: An ethnography of projecting sea level rise under uncertainty, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102947 5 cites.
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Early pliocene warming and ocean circulation: Non-linear responses to CO2 and Central American Seaway changes in HadCM3, Tindall et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105788
Elevated early Eocene atmospheric CO2 tied to reduced Southern Ocean biological pump efficiency, Moretti et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-02142-7
Glacial abrupt transitions in ocean circulation were much slower than ice-core records imply, Dong et al., Science 10.1126/science.aed4270
Repeated loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’s Amundsen Sea sector during late Pleistocene interglacials, Hillenbrand et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77004-2
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Coupled decline in ocean pH and carbonate saturation during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01579-y 31 cites.
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Behavioural Plasticity Is Associated With Climate Tracking in Birds, Yu et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70327
Climate change threatens ecosystem services: Global assessment of urban forest vulnerability, Wang & ?, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103170
Climate Warming Reduces Seed Mass in European Beech Through Altered Resource Dynamics and Drought, Bogdziewicz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71196
Climate-driven compositional shifts across a temperate–subtropical island ecotone, Kim & Jung, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08884
Climate-Driven Oceanographic Changes Shape Larval Dispersal Success in the Southern Ocean, Ouzoulias et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71168
Combining satellite-derived standing deadwood estimates and vegetation modelling to predict climate change impacts on Norway spruce forests in Germany, Anders et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111581
Dissolution and Heterotrophy at a Florida Coral Reef One Year After Severe Bleaching, Morris et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024333
Do Leaf Temperatures Determine Endophyte Composition and Richness in Florida Native Plant Species?, Tserej et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74615
Marine Heatwave and Extreme Hypoxia Coincide With Rapid Coral Bleaching and Mortality on a Central Red Sea Coral Reef, Klein et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74606
Projected Climate Change Impacts on Deep-Sea Corals of the Red Sea, Nolan et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71169
Revealing the Widespread Bias of Extinction Risk in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean, Farrant et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71170
Stony coral symbioses show variable responses to future ocean conditions, Souza et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed4599
Temporal dynamics and season-dependent warming responses of reactive soil silicon fractions in a subtropical oak forest, Cheng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.2018571
Thermal baselines and climate-space geometry mediate systematic terrestrial biodiversity responses to warming, Gao et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08765
Thermal ecology drives alternate responses to rising temperatures in Caribbean anoles, Domínguez-Guerrero et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2537152123
Using Artificial Intelligence to Optimize Ecological Restoration for Climate and Biodiversity, Silvestro et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71165
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9 115 cites.
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A national baseline for methane sink habitats and methanotroph diversity, Knudsen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-79316-9
Correct use of radiative efficiencies in calculating global warming potentials and other emission metrics, Collins et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-15757-2026
Dual Constraints of Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency and Mineral Protection Govern Necromass Accrual, Xiao et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71162
Elevated CO2 mitigated warming-enhanced carbon loss from northern peatland, Zhou et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aek1491
Emissions Poised to Rocket: Modeling the Environmental Impacts of Low Earth Orbit Satellite Constellations, Kukreja et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006511
Global Carbon Budget 2026, Zhao et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103542
Nocturnal Trapping of Agricultural Emissions Drives Persistent Methane Enhancements at the Southern Great Plains, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd047976
Past fire use in deforested land limits secondary forest carbon gains in Amazonia with implications for emissions reduction goals, Haddad et al., Carbon Balance and Management Open Access 10.1186/s13021-026-00542-1
Precipitation-driven plant community stability enhances wetland net ecosystem CO2 exchange, Song et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111592
Projection of the Status and Future Shifts of Topsoil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Regions: Patterns and Drivers, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007478
Quantifying the near-term response of the ocean CO2 sink to reduced atmospheric carbon concentrations, Ogden, BioScience 10.1525/bio.2013.63.5.3
Regional land carbon shifts strengthen atmospheric carbon dioxide–land carbon flux coupling, Luo et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02136-5
Restored but Still Emitting: High CO2 Fluxes From a Mediterranean Wetland Challenge Inundation-Based Restoration Strategies, Helman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009794
Snowpack decouples thermal and hydrologic regimes of coarse woody material from the winter atmosphere in northern hardwood forests, Woodall et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111588
Sparing use of phosphorus in an acidifying ocean, Li et al., Progress In Oceanography 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.08.001
Tropospheric oxidation chemistry and methane growth: a process-based attribution of OH variability (2003–2022), Gaubert et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-15683-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Dynamic Responses of Soil Organic Carbon to Urbanization: A Global Perspective, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17573 26 cites.
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Enhanced weathering of glacial rock flour drives coupled inorganic and organic carbon sequestration in a five-year field experiment, Dietzen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7727-2026
Experimental Evidence of Reaction-Driven Fracturing and Ultramafic Rock Weakening Induced by CO2 Mineralization, Wood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124491
Managing risk in carbon portfolios, Lee et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02785-9
Mediation of soil aggregate stability and carbon sequestration by meadow steppe soil microorganisms under long-term nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient additions, Wu et al., Soil Ecology Letters 10.1007/s42832-026-0473-9
The carbon at risk measure for managing carbon removal risk and guiding portfolio construction, Lee et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02785-9
Urban Development Impacts on Ecosystem Services: Modeling and Valuation of Carbon Storage in the Tehran Metropolis, Malekzadeh et al., International Journal of Environmental Research 10.1007/s41742-026-01291-2
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Tree planting is no climate solution at northern high latitudes, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01573-4 42 cites.
Decarbonization
A new iron age? The potential role of iron fuel in Europe’s clean energy transition, Schuler et al., Chem Circularity Open Access 10.1016/j.checir.2026.100047
Bridge fuels and climate policy integration: The case of low-carbon hydrogen in the European Union, Bruch, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115688
Decadal variability reveals contrasts in solar-resource stability across China, Meng et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aebbd8
Harnessing India's wind and solar potential: A spatially optimized transition pathway to 2050, Krishna et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115702
Retrofit: The Fast Track to Hydrogen in Short-sea Shipping, Rosenberg et al., MTZ worldwide 10.1007/s38313-026-2267-y
Solar photovoltaics and hydrogen energy as pathways to a sustainable future, Yusuf et al., Chemical Papers 10.1007/s11696-026-05692-7
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Current-Day and Future Dunkelflaute Risks for Belgium, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0007.1 12 cites.
Geoengineering climate
Revisiting the additionality and durability of carbon uptake in large-scale ocean iron fertilization, Noh et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aed1631
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Mapping the global variation in the efficiency of ocean alkalinity enhancement for carbon dioxide removal, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02179-9 91 cites.
Black carbon
Impact of Wildfire-Emitted Black Carbon on Snowmelt Across Western North America, Jaisawal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046919
Aerosols
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: CREST: a Climate Data Record of Stratospheric Aerosols, Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-16-5227-2024 20 cites.
Climate change communications & cognition
Exploring advocacy of Dutch government climate researchers: an interview study, Koppelaar et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-525-2026
More than just a one-hit-wonder? analyzing the meso level institutionalization of the climate movement in Germany (2019–2025), Laux, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2759817
When Scientific Uncertainty is Linked to Lower Information Avoidance: Motivational Pathways to Public Engagement With Climate Risk Information, Hong, Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70411
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Communicating consensus among climate scientists increases estimates of consensus and belief in human-caused climate change across the globe, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102480 12 cites.
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessing rural household food security in flood-prone areas: An integrated FAO–IPCC framework-based analysis in Iran, Radshirali-Bolati et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100912
Farmers’ everyday political work at the nexus of climate and conflict in Eastern DR Congo, Baker et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2754752
Nocturnal Trapping of Agricultural Emissions Drives Persistent Methane Enhancements at the Southern Great Plains, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd047976
Spatiotemporal variations of carbon-water-hydraulic risk for Pinus tabuliformis Carrière Plantations on the Loess Plateau under future climate change, Guo et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Changes in the Yield Effect of the Preceding Crop in the US Corn Belt Under a Warming Climate, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17556 15 cites.
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Climate Change Forces Hydrological Regime Shifts in Australian Wetlands, John et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007857
Record warmth in the Sea of Japan amplified the September 2024 Noto heavy rainfall associated with a mesoscale low-pressure disturbance, Shimoda & Sugimoto, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-79294-4
Tree Rings Indicate Potential for Severe Soil Moisture Drought in California Is Much Greater Than Observations Suggest, Jones & Williams, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125616
Climate change economics
Count the climate losses we prevent, A, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-79128-x
From the 2026 Hormuz disruption to renewable resilience: energy security and decarbonization governance in import-dependent economies, Levi & Barnett-Itzhaki, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1985153
From the 2026 Hormuz disruption to renewable resilience: energy security and decarbonization governance in import-dependent economies, Levi & Barnett-Itzhaki, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1985153
Managing risk in carbon portfolios, Lee et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02785-9
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Fission for funds: The financing of nuclear power plants, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114382 32 cites.
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Cost-effective climate change mitigation through land sector contributions, Grossi et al., Animal Frontiers Open Access pdf 10.1093/af/vfy034
Latin America's governance of the energy transition: Why some policy mixes succeed and most stall, Velástegui, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104999
Policy bundling and the political economy of climate policymaking, Bernards, Development and Change Open Access pdf 10.1111/dech.12788
The impact of the Swiss CO2 levy on residential heating emissions and energy demand, Schäfer, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115696
Urban thermal environment and carbon emissions in an arid urban agglomeration: spatial mismatch and cross-city variation in NDBI contribution thresholds, Abulizi et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103211
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Participation in Energy Transitions: A Comparison of Policy Styles, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103743 119 cites.
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
AI-Enabled Climate and Environmental Resilience in Cities: Technical Progress and Network Expansion, Tang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0311.1
Inclusive climate adaptation through intersectional co-production: gender- and disability-disaggregated evidence from southern Africa, Vincent et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2026.2754757
Intersectionality and Climate Adaptation Justice: A Systematic-Narrative Review, Rublee et al., The Journal of Climate Change and Health Open Access 10.1016/j.joclim.2023.100209
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The Promise of Resistance: A New Lens for Climate Change Adaptation Research and Practice, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.922 32 cites.
Climate change impacts on human health
A vulnerability-informed framework for assessing annual-scale heatwave–mortality association in China, Wu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105793
Climate Indices and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Linked to East Asian Summer Wet-Bulb Temperatures, ??? et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70650
Support for climate-health adaptation policy among German citizens: The role and limits of trust in government and scientists, Groeve & Prettenthaler, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103282
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Hot and cold: Policy perspectives on overheating and cooling in United Kingdom homes, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103803 17 cites.
Climate change & geopolitics
Arrow's shadow over climate governance, George, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2753246
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Climate migration management? Contrasting international policy approaches with evidence from Ghana, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2411326 6 cites.
Climate change impacts on human culture
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Spatiotemporal changes in tourism climate comfort in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8626 3 cites.
Other
Environmental justice asymmetries in carbon management research, Nobar et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.34926014
From carbon footprint to climate lifeprint: Comparison and accounting model for ultra-rich social influencers, Salekpay & Bergh, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105075
Multi-centennial ocean biogeochemical responses to extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Kobayashi et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-7807-2026
Tropopause shift during the ozone transition in multiple reanalyses over East Antarctica, Wu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109437
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Gender-based climate (in)justice: An overview, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103934 18 cites.
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline, Quéré et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8
A horizon scan of global catastrophic risks, Turchin & Green, Cell One Earth 10.1108/fs-04-2018-0031
Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth, Dyke et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de
Start cryosphere flood warnings at the source, Song, Science 10.1126/science.ael8929
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00597-z 276 cites.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia, Seyuba et al., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The authors focus on Somalia and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the region. The authors offer a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
The Case for a Public Renewable Energy Developer in New York City, Jason Kowalski and Johanna Bozuwa, Climate and Community Institute
The climate crisis has reached New York City. As record-breaking heat and storms strain the City’s infrastructure, utility costs burden working class New Yorkers. By establishing a public renewable energy developer, the City can deliver meaningful affordability benefits to all New Yorkers, create good union jobs, and offer a practical model for climate action that can be replicated nationwide. PowerNYC Development Corporation (PowerNYC), a public renewable energy developer, would be a financially self-sustaining engine of decarbonization that delivers clean energy projects including distributed battery storage, distributed solar, and thermal energy networks (TENs) at no upfront cost to New Yorkers. PowerNYC can deliver substantial citywide affordability benefits across its portfolio of projects. Examining battery storage alone, the authors found that an initial deployment of 200 MW of publicly developed distributed batteries could save New York City ratepayers at least $170 million per year.
California Wildfire 2026: Emerging Trends & Policy Insights, Ahumada-Paras et al., Stanford Climate & Energy Policy Program
The authors provide a broad view of California’s ongoing wildfire crisis, detailing direct effects, such as lives lost and homes destroyed, as well as downstream effects, such as higher electricity bills, insurance premiums and smoke exposure. Among the takeaways: big investments in safer communities and fire-resilient landscapes to reduce future losses are key to durable and affordable solutions.
Global benefits and costs of prioritized actions on climate change and health, Campbell-Lendrum et al., World Health Organization
The authors present a global assessment of the health, environmental and economic benefits and costs of scaling up six prioritized climate–health actions. Using a welfare economic approach, they evaluate heat–health warning systems, climate-resilient drinking-water, basic sanitation and hand hygiene, cleaner household energy sources, and fiscal policies to efficiently price fossil fuels. The analysis quantifies potential reductions in mortality and greenhouse gas emissions, economic benefits, implementation costs and returns on investment across countries and regions. The authors indicate that scaling up these interventions could avert approximately 1.6 million deaths annually, prevent 17 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions and generate economic benefits of approximately US$ 4 trillion and fiscal benefits of approximately US$ 5 trillion annually. For the five interventions assessed through benefit–cost analysis, estimated benefits amount to US$ 24 for every US$ 1 invested. Despite uncertainties associated with long-term projections and ambitious scale-up scenarios, the authors provide quantitative evidence to inform the prioritization, financing and implementation of climate–health actions worldwide.
No Escape III - Displaced voices from the frontlines of the climate crisis, The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Millions of people across the globe continue to be forced to flee their homes because of violence, conflict, and climate-related hazards. In fact, the number of forcibly displaced people in the world today has never been higher – doubling to more than 120 million people over the past 10 years. While conflict remains the primary driver of displacement, climate change can aggravate an already devastating reality. Its effects disproportionately affect the world’s most vulnerable populations – including refugees, internally displaced people and the communities hosting them. Often lacking critical resources such as stable housing, financial security, institutional support, or access to essential services, displaced people now also struggle to prepare for, adapt or recover from disasters like floods, droughts and heatwaves. While the situation is dire, this report demonstrates sustainable solutions are within reach. Worst-case scenarios can be avoided, through integrated approaches that are climate-smart, protection- and gender-centered, human rights-based, conflict-sensitive, and peace-responsive. The report therefore concludes with a strong call to action including: PROTECT displaced people fleeing in the context of climate change impacts and disasters by applying and adapting existing legal tools, INCLUDE the voices and specific needs of displaced populations and host communities in climate finance and policy decisions, INVEST in building climate resilience where needs are greatest, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings, and ACCELERATE the reduction of carbon emissions to prevent climate disaster and to avert and minimize further displacement.
Renewables 2026. Analysis and forecasts to 2031, The International Energy Agency
Renewables 2026 is the IEA's main annual report on the sector, covering hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels and biogases. The authors present the latest forecasts and analysis, based on recent policy and market developments, while also exploring key challenges and opportunities facing the renewables sector. This year’s edition provides forecasts for the deployment of renewable energy technologies across electricity systems, transport, heating and biogases through 2031. The authors also examines the energy security implications of key trends, policy changes, the manufacturing of renewable technologies, and the financial health of different parts of the industry. Renewables are already delivering major energy security benefits. Without their growth since 2010, global annual demand for fossil fuels would have been around 8% higher in 2025, an amount equivalent to India’s total energy consumption. Renewables have also displaced natural gas consumption equivalent to 11% of global demand. This has lowered the influence of gas-fired power plants on wholesale electricity prices and helped limit price increases during the crisis in many countries. In addition, the growth of biofuels and other renewables since 2010 has displaced 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day – comparable to Canada’s total oil demand
Landscape Assessment: EU Food Security and Climate Resilience, Tristan Norman, Center for Climate and Security
The European Union’s food security is increasingly threatened by the convergence of climate change, geopolitical instability, and vulnerabilities across global supply chains and critical infrastructure networks. While the European Union has made progress in strengthening preparedness and crisis response, significant gaps remain in policy coordination, policy and operational readiness, and national implementation. The author presents a landscape assessment of EU food security and climate resilience policies, along with a current overview of resilience efforts by key EU Member States. The author reveals a Europe of diverging capacities and preparedness levels across food security and climate resilience policies. However, an enabling policy environment is emerging.
COP30 Presidency Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Energy Systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science, COP 30 Brasil Amazonia, Belem
Announced at the closing plenary of COP30 in Belém, the Roadmap was developed through broad international consultations. The Roadmap is a voluntary, non-prescriptive contribution from the COP30 Presidency. The Roadmap outlines three proposals for advancing implementation: encouraging countries, subnational governments and sectors to start now, using the Belém Readiness Approach to assess their circumstances and identify priorities; launching a collective agenda to accelerate coordinated action in this critical decade, through 2033; and sustaining international dialogue and cooperation, including through future COP Presidencies and the Global Stocktake, to assess progress and address shared implementation challenges. This COP30 Presidency Roadmap concludes that transitioning away from fossil fuels is urgent, inevitable and yet possible, and that every country can begin taking action, regardless of its starting point.
The Storage Solution: How Batteries Can Enhance Grid Reliability, Affordability, and Decarbonization in the Data Center Era, Nate Burnand and Ian Hitchcock, Georgetown Climate Center, the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability at Duke University, and the Deep Tech Initiative at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy
The authors suggest that widespread deployment of energy storage systems, including batteries, has the potential to alleviate some of the major challenges associated with data centers and other large electric loads. However, the benefits of energy storage will only be realized with an enabling policy environment that recognizes the values that batteries and other energy storage systems can provide to the grid, including state-level policy.
Advisory Parameters for Arctic Climate Intervention Assessments. A framework for assessing climate interventions in the Arctic, Philip Steinberg & Romain Chuffart, Durham University and Arctic Studies at the University of Akureyri
Proposals to intervene in the Arctic climate have multiplied in recent years and the scientific literature on their feasibility is now substantial. Questions of who should evaluate Arctic climate interventions, against what standards, and with whose consent, remain however largely unanswered. The authors set out parameters for designing an assessment instrument. While it is not intended as a toolkit, the toolkit can serve as a bridge between the statements of geoengineering principles that have accumulated since 2009 and the practicable assessment tools that will eventually be needed.
LNG in Maritime Decarbonisation, Nesrine Souissi, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
The author asks what structural role LNG will play in maritime decarbonization. Drawing on an assessment of regulatory developments, fleet investment, and infrastructure convertibility, supported by an illustrative comparison of penalty-inclusive fuel costs against e-ammonia, e-methanol, and e-methane, the author found that LNG retains a compliance advantage, but that this advantage is narrowing. For vessels at the FuelEU default intensity for Otto-cycle engines, LNG costs including policy penalties could overtake e-fuel costs in the early-to-mid 2030s, depending on e-fuel cost assumptions. However, the crossover is highly sensitive to vessel trading pattern, engine technology and methane-slip performance, and remains conditional on unresolved regulatory design choices around methane’s global warming potential and the International Maritime Organization’s zero/near-zero reward mechanism. The longer-term outcome will also depend on whether the capital currently flowing into LNG infrastructure is used to prolong the commercial life of LNG or to accelerate the methane-based pathway to non-fossil alternatives, such as biomethane and e-methane.
Community Resilience as a Strategic Asset: Strengthening Arctic Sovereignty and Defence Readiness in a Climate Changed North, Hosken et al., The Conference of Defence Associations Institute
Canada’s North is warming far faster than the global average, and the resulting coastal erosion, flooding, permafrost thaw, and wildfires are outpacing the civilian systems meant to manage them. Federal response has increasingly defaulted to the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF): Operation LENTUS activations have broadly doubled every five years since 2010, and the CAF has shifted from last resort to routine backstop. This dependency is a defence and security problem, not only an emergency management one: repeated military substitution imposes readiness and opportunity costs while suppressing the local capacity that most determines disaster outcomes. Drawing on disaster research, parliamentary and departmental evidence, Nordic total defence practice, and Canadian Arctic policy sources, the authors treat community-level resilience as a strategic asset: in the Arctic, everyday presence sustains jurisdiction more durably than episodic demonstrations of force. The authors assess the hazard landscape, the limits of the current approach, the contribution of social capital and Indigenous leadership, and available science and technology enablers, then adapts Nordic total defence lessons to Canadian geography, federalism, and reconciliation commitments. The authors set out seven five-year recommendations: strengthen hazard monitoring and adaptive infrastructure; rebalance the CAF’s role through a whole-of-community surge mechanism; invest in Indigenous-led resilience hubs and governance; strengthen social capital and volunteer networks; expand community access to locally usable science and technology, with improved connectivity and digital literacy; improve coordination through a northern-focused governance mechanism informed by Nordic practices; and sustain sovereignty by investing in housing, services, and stable population presence.
Stop Big Tech's Climate Destruction, Newell et al., Climate Action Against Disinformation
The authors detail what policymakers can do about Big Tech’s betrayal of its' climate goals in pursuit of AI as the total reported electricity consumption of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google has risen 240%, resulting in 2.4 times more pollution than their targets, an estimated collective 311 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2022 and 2025. Google’s unadjusted emissions were more than 4 times bigger than their target, going over by 304%. Google overshot its' emissions target for 2022-2025 by 71 MTCO2-e, which is 23,610 more, or 24 times greater than it claims to have avoided through its AI-assisted ‘contrail avoidance’ for aircraft. Microsoft’s emissions were 2.5 times bigger than their target, exceeding their pollution goal by 150%. Microsoft missed its' target by 63 MTCO2-e, which is 630 times greater than the expected emissions reductions from a sustainable aviation fuel transaction touted in its latest sustainability report. Amazon’s emissions were double their target, 110% over their commitment and the largest of Big Tech’s compared emissions by volume. The authors found that “once operational, a single Amazon data center will in one year wipe out the efforts of signatories to the ‘climate pledge’ 22 times over.” If they stay on this course, by 2030 Google, Meta and Amazon will emit 381 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, 12.5 times larger than their 2030 targets and nearly the total annual emissions of Iraq.
Climate change-driven extreme heat, occupational health and productivity: A need for human-centered policy in the UK, Addison et al., Extreme Heat in the Workplace Steering Group
The authors examine the effects of extreme heat on workers, occupational health and productivity. The authors specifically focus on how physiological research and insights can inform policies to prevent heat-related health impacts. They conclude with recommendations for the UK Government on how it can make better progress to protect the health, wellbeing and productivity of the workforce from the impacts of extreme heat.
What happens in Vegas should inform the rest of the country: Lessons learned from Nevada’s heat complaints database, Alahmad et al., Natural Resources Defense Council
The authors explore the limitations of Nevada's workplace heat standard, particularly its' lack of specific temperature thresholds for implementing protective measures. Instead, employers are required to assess heat-related hazards and determine appropriate protections. The analysis places Nevada's approach within the broader context of occupational heat regulations in the United States, where protections vary significantly between states and no federal heat standard had been adopted at the time of publication. The findings challenge Nevada’s approach, which does not set temperature thresholds and leaves employers to decide when heat protections are needed. The authors suggest that clear thresholds are feasible and align with those used in several other state standards. Complaints are indicators of reported hazards, not a complete count of heat-related illness or injury; workers who fear retaliation or face other barriers may not report, and the dataset does not represent all workplace exposures.
Plan de Accion Olas de Calor (Heat Wave Action Plan)(Argentina), Municipalidad de Córdoba, Municipalidad de Córdoba (Argentina)
The second edition of Córdoba’s municipal Heat Wave Action Plan builds on the city’s first plan and aims to make heat preparedness a long-term local policy rather than a one-season response. It sets out how the municipality prevents, anticipates and responds to extreme heat, including a local heat-wave threshold, colour-coded alert levels linked to Argentina’s national early warning system, and a coordinated response across city departments. The plan focuses on people most at risk, such as older adults living alone, children, outdoor workers and people in inadequate housing. It also covers public communication, cooling and hydration spaces, tree planting and shade, and the need to coordinate across the wider metropolitan area.
WHO Global Preparedness and Response to El Niño-Related Public Health Risks and Emergencies - Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, World Health Organization
The authors set out WHO’s global strategy and operational framework for October 2026–September 2027. They translate WHO’s Grade 3 response into coordinated action across headquarters, Regional Offices and Country Offices, while supporting nationally led preparedness and response. The plan is structured around four strategic objectives: Detection and Monitoring; Protection and Prevention; Care and Support; and Health Leadership and Coordination, implemented through an Anticipate–Mitigate–Respond approach driven by local risks, triggers and operational deadlines. It prioritizes anticipatory action, continuity of essential health services, protection of vulnerable populations, climate-informed surveillance, preparedness, logistics and coordinated support to Member States. The initial resource requirement is approximately US$35 million, covering the first six-month operational period, with the plan designed to be reviewed and adapted as the El Niño risk picture evolves.
Burning Questions Series: A Decision-maker’s Guide to Heat and Health, Ebi et al., Global Heat Health Information Network
This series of two-page guides answers key policy-relevant guiding questions from the Extreme Heat and Health: Global Evidence for Action report (in press). The report is the result of the invaluable contributions of experts and reviewers from around the world who worked on its development, provided technical content and participated in the peer review process.
Energy transition outlook 2026-27, Sharma et al., Wood Mackenzie
For governments and businesses, the challenge is no longer simply how quickly to decarbonize. It is how to balance security, affordability, resilience and sustainability in an increasingly fragmented world. The authors reveal an important consequence: energy security and decarbonization do not always pull in opposite directions. As countries seek to reduce dependence on imported fuels, greater electrification, renewables, nuclear, storage and domestic infrastructure can strengthen energy security while lowering emissions as a by-product. But there is no single path ahead. Three nations account for over half of power demand growth over the next three decades, led by technology and data center load in the US and rising incomes in India and China. Chokepoint disruptions demonstrate how geopolitical shocks cascade beyond price spikes into physical shortages. Demand rises for fossil fuels in Growth First scenario, while other scenarios see a shift from oil and gas towards renewables and nuclear. Near-term expansion is anchored by industrial load and data centers, placing global power demand on track to reach 71 PWh by 2060 in our base case.
UN Women fact sheet on ‘Gender Equality in the Age of Climate Crisis’, UN Women
Climate change is intensifying inequalities and reshaping the lives of women and girls across the world, particularly in climate hotspots where high climate exposure, precarious livelihoods, and gender inequality intersect. Drawing on new evidence from Progress of the World's Women 2026: Gender Equality in the Age of Climate Crisis, to be published in 2027, the authors of this fact sheet show how unequal patterns of wealth, consumption, and emissions fuel a crisis whose greatest costs fall on those least responsible. At the same time, they demonstrate how feminist climate justice can drive a gender-just transition that strengthens resilience, expands access to quality jobs, and accelerates climate action. The authors then set out priorities for transformative adaptation, gender-responsive climate finance, stronger social protection systems, and investments in care to advance a more equal and sustainable future for people and the planet.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 12 November, 2026
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