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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Monckton Myth #5: Dangerous Warming

dana1981 at 06:25 AM on 21 January, 2011

Thanks Byron. I was going to make that point, but Steketee referenced 2-3°C from pre-industrial, and Monckton referenced 2°C from present, which is within Steketee's range.

Sometimes we refer to temps in relation to pre-industrial, and sometimes from current temps. Even the IPCC uses both, as mentioned in the article. So Monckton's use of current temps as the reference point isn't really a big deal.

Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming

dana1981 at 10:57 AM on 18 January, 2011

Monckton's problem was that Steketee said "in the last 40 years", forcing Monckton to start in 1970. This excludes UAH, which started in 1979, yet Monckton cited the UAH trend (roughly 1.3°C per century) anyway. It's bad enough to cherrypick UAH, but even worse to cherrypick it over a timeframe during 25% of which it didn't even exist!

2001 seems to be surpassing 1998 as the 'skeptics' preferred cherrypicked starting point. No doubt because the longer the timeframe, the clearer the warming signal. This creates a bit of a conflict though, because UAH has one of the largest warming trends since 2001 of any temperature data set.

It's difficult to cherrypick when your preferred cherries keep changing. I picture Monckton hopping from one branch of the cherry tree to the next.

Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming

WheelsOC at 10:41 AM on 18 January, 2011

Notice how he switches time periods in mid-paragraph, going from "since 1970" to "since 2001." It's like he consciously knows that focusing on the last decade alone will give a skewed picture of the temperature trend. I suspect the same is true of those who claim, "no warming since 1998!" It's hard to be convinced they can make these mistakes honestly. It's especially frustrating since Monckton repeatedly accuses Steketee of cherry-picking time periods or extreme weather events.
Unfortunately, Monckton is increasingly adroit when it comes to the Gish Gallop. Usually the only two ways to deal with this are not to dignify the low-flying bull with a debate, or to write a book-length rebuttal. Sadly the former option isn't available in this case, especially since Monckton is a favorite for legislative testimony.

Monckton Myth #1: Cooling oceans

JMurphy at 12:23 PM on 15 January, 2011

There is also a rebuttal to Monckton's attempt at a rebuttal :

Mike Steketee's response to Christopher Monckton

How much longer can Monckton continue to make merry with the truth ? He obviously has no shame.

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