Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?, Sippel et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics:
Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about −4.9 to −4.7 °C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): a winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability.
The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations, Shahvandi et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Modern climate change is unprecedented. In recent decades, it has accelerated the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets, leading to a rise in sea level. This pole-to-equator mass transport has significantly increased the Earth’s oblateness and length of day (LOD) since 1900. We show that the present rate of increase is higher than at any point in the 20th century. Under high emission scenarios, the climate-induced LOD rate will continue to increase and may reach a rate that is twice as large as at present, surpassing the impact of lunar tidal friction. These findings signify the unprecedented effect of climate change on planet Earth and have implications for precise timekeeping and space navigation, among others.
Footprint of sustained poleward warm water flow within East Antarctic submarine canyons, Donda et al., Nature Communications:
Here, we outline the key role of submarine canyons to convey southward flowing currents that transport warm Circumpolar Deep Water toward the East Antarctic shelf break, thus facilitating warm water intrusion on the continental shelf. Sediment drifts on the eastern flank of the canyons provide evidence for sustained southward-directed flows. These morpho-sedimentary features thus highlight areas potentially prone to enhanced ocean heat transport toward the continental shelf, with repercussions for past, present, and future glacial melting and consequent sea level rise.
Extreme melting at Greenland's largest floating ice tongue, Zeising et al., EGUSphere;
The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae, 79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier was considered exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies indicate that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar measurements in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of 79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high subglacial channel has grown since ~2010 and caused surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a-1. Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a-1 within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line, where the ice has thinned by 42 % since 1998. We found a heterogeneous distribution of melt rates likely due to variability in water column thickness and channelization of the ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into the cavity below 79NG.
Cod otoliths document accelerating climate impacts in the Baltic Sea, Heimbrand et al., Scientific Reports:
Using Baltic cod otolith chemical proxies of hypoxia, salinity, and fish metabolic status and growth, we tracked changes from baseline conditions in the late Neolithic (4500 BP) and early twentieth century to the present, in order to understand how recent, accelerating climate change has affected this key species. Otolith hypoxia proxies (Mn:Mg) increased with expanding anoxic water volumes, but decreased with increasing salinity indexed by otolith Sr:Ca. Metabolic status proxied by otolith Mg:Ca and reconstructed growth were positively related to dissolved oxygen percent saturation, with particularly severe declines since 2010. This long-term record of otolith indicators provides further evidence of a profound state change in oxygen for the worse, in one of the world’s largest inland seas. Spreading hypoxia due to climate warming will likely impair fish populations globally and evidence can be tracked with otolith chemical biomarkers.
Science-based targets miss the mark, Reisinger et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
To address the multiple dimensions of equity associated with climate mitigation targets for individual actors such as companies or countries, social sciences and humanities need to become a core part of the science that informs target setting, including economics, political science, socio-technical transition theory and ethics. This requires embracing the wide range of actions that can contribute to the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, as opposed to hobbling acceptable actions by narrow and arbitrary decision-making rules.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Climate Deniers of the 118th Congress, Kat So, The Center for American Progress
Currently, 123 members of the 118th Congress publicly deny the scientific consensus of human-caused climate change. These 100 representatives and 23 senators wield significant influence on public perceptions of climate change as well as on the speed and direction of climate policy in the United States. Members of Congress also receive publicly disclosed contributions, which may provide a window into the possible influence of the fossil fuel industry.
Global Warming’s Six Audiences Around the World, Carman et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
The author's prior research has identified six distinct audiences within the public – the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive – based on their beliefs and attitudes about climate change. Here, we apply this analysis to our large international survey of more than 100 countries and territories worldwide, collected in partnership with Data for Good at Meta and Rare’s Center for Behavior and the Environment in 2023. We find that the Alarmed are the largest group in about three-fourths of the areas surveyed (87 of the 110). Half or more respondents in thirty-one areas are Alarmed. The five areas with the largest percentage of Alarmed are Puerto Rico (70%), El Salvador (67%), Costa Rica (65%), Chile (64%), and Panama (64%). By contrast, Czechia (10%) and the Netherlands (9%) have the smallest percentages of Alarmed. In the United States, about one-third of respondents are Alarmed (32%). Among all areas, the Netherlands has the highest proportion of Doubtful and Dismissive (30%), followed by Norway (27%) and Libya (25%). In the United States, about one in four respondents are Doubtful or Dismissive (25%).
Physical science of climate change, effects
A systematic evaluation of high-cloud controlling factors, Wilson Kemsley et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-8295-2024
Climate and Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity, Fiore et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Open Access 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090307
Energy Conservation in the Cooling and Contracting Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere, Mlynczak et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109757
Footprint of sustained poleward warm water flow within East Antarctic submarine canyons, Donda et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50160-z
Satellite-based re-examination of changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed in the last 30 years, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1398638
Observations of climate change, effects
Accelerated warming in the North Pacific since 2013, Hu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02088-x
Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of CLIMDEX indices, Alfaro?Córdoba et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8571
Continued warming of deep waters in the Fram Strait, Karam et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-458
Earth's Sea Ice Radiative Effect From 1980 to 2023, Duspayev et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109608
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage, Henke et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2400355121
Human Fingerprints on Daily Temperatures in 2022, Gilford et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-23-0264.1
Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023, Sato et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y
Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan, Hussain et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107592
The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations, Shahvandi et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2406930121
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate, Faranda et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
Climatological distribution of ocean acidification variables along the North American ocean margins, Jiang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3383-2024
Detection and Attribution of Meteorological Drought to Anthropogenic Climate Change (Case Study: Ajichay basin, Iran), Firoozi et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03779-2
Infrared Radiation in the Thermosphere From 2002 to 2023, Mlynczak et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109470
Observational Limitations to the Emergence of Climate Signals, Rivoire et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109638
Toward User-Friendly All-Sky Surface Longwave Downward Radiation from Space: General Scheme and Product, Du et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0126.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Black Carbon in Snow and Its Radiative Forcing in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on Global Field Observations, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040665
Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake, Williams et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3
Climatology, trends, and future projections of aerosol optical depth over the Middle East and North Africa region in CMIP6 models, Kunchala et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1384202
CMIP6 projections of surface latent heat flux over the North Indian Ocean, Naskar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05114-2
Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?, Sippel et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9
Disentangling Forced Trends in the North Atlantic Jet From Natural Variability Using Deep Learning, Hermoso & Schemm Schemm, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040638
Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems, Du et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50570-z
How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108160
Projected future changes in bomb cyclones by the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble, Gao et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07327-7
The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America, Liang et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.171900007.70054337/v1
The historical to future linkage of Arctic amplification on extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.008
The Ross Sea and Amundsen Sea Ice-Sea Model (RAISE v1.0): a high-resolution ocean-sea ice-ice shelf coupling model for simulating the Dense Shelf Water and Antarctic Bottom Water in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, Zhang et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-128
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A momentum budget study of the semi-annual oscillation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, Jaison et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4782
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Can CMIP6 models reproduce the influence of ENSO on the variability of boreal winter Hadley Circulation?, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107588
Comparison of three reanalysis-driven regional climate models over New Zealand: Climatology and extreme events, Campbell et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8578
Distinct sources of uncertainty in simulations of the ocean biological carbon pump at different depths, Wang & Fennel, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01561-x
Estimating the gain of increasing the ensemble size from analytical considerations, Christiansen, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4815
For a Pluralism of Climate Modeling Strategies, Pacchetti et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0169.1
Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling, Bonnet et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024
Modeling Past Hothouse Climates as a Means for Assessing Earth System Models and Improving the Understanding of Warm Climates, Zhu et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-100333
The very-high resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP, Moreno-Chamarro et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-119
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics, Fuchs et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling, Morgenstern, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-8105-2024
Cryosphere & climate change
A newly digitized ice-penetrating radar data set acquired over the Greenland ice sheet in 1971–1979, Karlsson et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3333-2024
Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulations in cGENIE model and projections under RCP scenarios, Chen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-67391-1
Earth's Sea Ice Radiative Effect From 1980 to 2023, Duspayev et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109608
Extreme melting at Greenland's largest floating ice tongue, Zeising et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1320
Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate, Bassis et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-122817
The radiative and geometric properties of melting first-year landfast sea ice in the Arctic, Laxague et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-3297-2024
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018, Davison et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-232
Sea level & climate change
Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels, Sweet et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108864
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A Greenland-wide empirical reconstruction of paleo ice-sheet retreat informed by ice extent markers: PaleoGrIS version 1.0, Leger et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2023-60
The 4.2 ka BP event in western Anatolia: Tracing the impact of climatic change, Bal & Pi?kin, The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241259774
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A genome-guided strategy for climate resilience in American chestnut restoration populations, Sandercock et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2403505121
A grazing crab drives saltmarsh carbon storage and recovery, Wittyngham et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4385
Cod otoliths document accelerating climate impacts in the Baltic Sea, Heimbrand et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-67471-2
Comparative life-history responses of lacewings to changes in temperature, Serediuk et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70000
Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation, Ran et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70003
Humidity modifies species-specific and age-dependent heat stress effects in an insect host-parasitoid interaction, Li et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70047
Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11621
Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming, Wilkes et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17422
Responses at various levels of ecological hierarchy indicate acclimation to sequential sublethal heatwaves in a temperate benthic ecosystem, Ito et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0171
Seasonal sonic patterns reveal phenological phases (sonophases) associated with climate change in subarctic Alaska, Mullet et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1345558
Spatial food webs in the Barents Sea: atlantification and the reorganization of the trophic structure, Jordán et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0164
The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70015
Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities, Yin & Rudolf Rudolf Volker H. W. Rudolf, Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.06.30.546877
Tropical root responses to global changes: A synthesis, Yaffar et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17420
Variability in Ice Cover Does Not Affect Annual Metabolism Estimates in a Small Eutrophic Reservoir, Howard et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008057
Warming sea surface temperatures are linked to lower shorebird migratory fuel loads, Lagassé & Breed Greg A. Breed, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.240324
Weakened connection between spring leaf-out and autumn senescence in the Northern Hemisphere, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17429
Whole-genome duplication in an algal symbiont bolsters coral heat tolerance, Dougan et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.04.10.487810
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World, Schimel & Carroll, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-081700
Climate-based prediction of carbon fluxes from deadwood in Australia, Duan et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024
Direct observational evidence of strong CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean, Dong et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adn5781
Disentangling Carbon Concentration Changes Along Pathways of North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water, Reijnders et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020814
Distinguishing mature and immature trees allows estimating forest carbon uptake from stand structure, Fischer et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3305-2024
Ecosystem CO2 flux responses to extreme droughts depend on interaction of seasonal timing and plant community composition, Zheng et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14374
High-Resolution Neural Network Demonstrates Strong CO2 Source-Sink Juxtaposition in the Coastal Zone, Duke et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021134
Microbial Communities Degrade Ancient Permafrost-Derived Organic Matter in Arctic Seawater, Ruben et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007936
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans, Pasquier et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024
The Southern Ocean carbon sink has been overestimated in the past three decades, Zhong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01566-6
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project, Sitch et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008102
Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane, Walter Anthony et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50346-5
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation, Busch et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1
Dependence of Climate and Carbon Cycle Response in Net Zero Emission Pathways on the Magnitude and Duration of Positive and Negative Emission Pulses, Jayakrishnan et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004891
Separation and concentration of CO2 from air using a humidity-driven molten-carbonate membrane, Metcalfe et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01588-6
Shifting wood between material and energy use: Modeling the effects of substitution, Boiger et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13530
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, OGAWA et al., TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS Series B Open Access pdf 10.1299/kikaib.70.3204
The Carbon Removal Budget: theory and practice, Caldecott & Johnstone, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2374515
The impact of land use change on carbon storage and multi-scenario prediction in Hainan Island using InVEST and CA-Markov models, Lei et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1349057
Decarbonization
A green hydrogen revolution in Africa remains elusive under current geopolitical realities, Dagnachew et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2376740
Critical mineral mining in the energy transition: A systematic review of environmental, social, and governance risks and opportunities, Carr-Wilson et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103672
Effects of firebricks for industrial process heat on the cost of matching all-sector energy demand with 100% wind–water–solar supply in 149 countries, Jacobson et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae274
Efficiency improvement of wastewater treatment plants under the background of “double carbon”: a case study in Jiujiang city, China, Tao et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1331092
Energy storage potential of used electric vehicle batteries for supporting renewable energy generation in India, Chauhan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101513
Global decarbonization potential of CO2 mineralization in concrete materials, Driver et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2313475121
Black carbon
Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China, Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd040874
Aerosols
Assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions over the Northern Indian Ocean, Kumar & Tiwari, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107601
More Accurate Quantification of Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects Using Vertical Profiles of Single-Scattering Albedo Derived From Tethered Balloon Observations, Guan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040605
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change distress, entrapment, and suicidal ideation, Brailovskaia & Teismann, Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03784-5
Dry Spells, Drought, and Environmental Crisis: The Drought Feature in Australian Women’s Weekly Magazine, 1939–2019, Williamson, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2382472
Green and Good? Examining Intended and Unintended Effects of Morally Framed Climate Messages, Troy et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2379445
How global crises compete for our attention: Insights from 13.5 million tweets on climate change during COVID-19, Repke et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103668
Numeric social-media posts engage people with climate science, Peters et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae250
Patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents: Differences in emotions concerning the future, moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement, Rikner Martinsson & Ojala, Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03778-3
Thinking About the Future: Examining the Exacerbating and Attenuating Factors of Despair-Induced Climate Burnout, Bird et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102382
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Balancing productivity and carbon emissions: the potential for carbon reduction in wheat fertilization practices in China, Qi & Li, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1427250
Climate resilience of European wine regions, Tscholl et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50549-w
How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories?, Wynants et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004299
Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment, Korell et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17418
Logging emissions from a Forest Stewardship Council certified forest in Guyana, Roopsind et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2378740
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Multi-level factors influencing climate migration willingness among small-scale farmers, Kalantari et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1434708
Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia, Bezdan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8573
Policy complementarities in the promotion of electric vehicles, Burra et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114262
Vulnerability to climate change and variability: gender and agro-ecological perspectives, Regasa & Kebede, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03764-9
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A novel statistically-based approach to regionalize extreme precipitation events using temperature data, Meis et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06805-9
Global Distribution and Projected Variations of Compound Drought-Extreme Precipitation Events, Deng et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004809
Projecting Surface Water Area Under Different Climate and Development Scenarios, Gaines et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004625
Reduced Runoff in the Upper Yangtze River Due To Comparable Contribution of Anthropogenic and Climate Changes, Zeng et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004028
State-of-the-art review on stability and serviceability of dikes as a flood infrastructure and their comprehensive assessment in Indus Plain considering global climate change, Gul et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06836-2
The disaster-causing factors of the flash floods for the July 20th extreme rainstorm in Henan, China, He et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1438421
The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01560-y
Climate change economics
Financial inclusion and threshold effects in carbon emissions, Ben Cheikh & Rault Rault, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114265
More Climate Finance from More Countries?, Fernando et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4901538
Towards a more transformative approach to climate finance, Newell, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2377730
Climate change and the circular economy
Multi-objective artificial bee colony algorithm for reducing carbon emission and maximizing profit in a circular supply chain network, Sakthivel et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05233-w
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Bangladesh's pathways to net-zero transition: Reassessing country's solar PV potential with high-resolution GIS data, Hasan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101511
Changing carbon footprints and the consequent impacts of carbon taxes and cash transfers on poverty and inequality across years: A Peruvian case study, Malerba et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114246
Designing a cost-effective policy mix for transition toward net-zero emissions: a case study of the mid-term plan by 2035 of Taiwan, Wu & Lee, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2379545
Effects of gift card on an environmental and a newsvendor issue, Lashgari et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04042-x
Electricity generation portfolios in Mexico: Environmental, economic, and policy implications, Juárez-Luna & Mosiño Mosiño, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114258
Just transition as practitioners’ acceptance of technical solutions to decarbonize: Insights from the glass manufacturing industry, Gong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114268
Legitimizing sustainability transitions through stakeholder participation: Evaluating the Coal Commission in Germany, Radtke & Löw Beer, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103667
Overcoming the headwinds: Can policy design shape public acceptance of wind power in Sweden?, Lindvall et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103674
Policy complementarities in the promotion of electric vehicles, Burra et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114262
Power supply disruptions deter electric vehicle adoption in cities in China, Qiu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50447-1
Reimagining energy infrastructure for justice: Power, politics, and institutional work in India’s 2.05 GW Pavagada solar park, Haldar et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103645
Science-based principles for corporate climate transition risk quantification, Khan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02067-2
Study on carbon emission characteristics and its influencing factors of energy consumption in Sichuan Province, China, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1414730
Study on stochastic convergence of China’s carbon emission efficiency, Xu et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2375744
The changing mix of fossil fuels used and the related evolution of CO2 emissions, Hefner et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10149-x
Why do sustainable materialism initiatives rise and fall over time? Insights from the case of cooperative energy projects in Denmark and France, Wokuri, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2377925
“Climate-Solutions Polarization”: A Value-based Approach to Understanding Polarization Dynamics around Biomass in Dutch Media Discourse, van Eck et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2376688
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate mobility and migrant health in West Africa: past norms, current challenges, and future projections, Maduforo et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02271-y
Enhanced policy adequacy facilitates national climate adaptation tracking across Africa, Nowak et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02055-6
Fueling the fires – An exploration of the drivers and the scope for management of European wildfire risk under the Shared socioeconomic Pathways, Preinfalk & Handmer, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100638
Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation, Nowak et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02054-7
Organisational perceptions of adapting to a changing climate, Dookie et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100637
Reconsidering National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) as a Policy Framework under the UNFCCC, Mizuno & Okano, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2378194
The necessity of pragmatic muddling. Ten Swedish early adopter cities navigating climate adaptation policy-implementation in the urban built environment, Storbjörk et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103842
Weaving scientific and local knowledge on climate change impacts in coastal Kenya, Western Indian Ocean, Chambon et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103846
Climate change impacts on human health
Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming, Jing et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004548
Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate, Sparks et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2215685121
Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11621
Indoor overheating: A review of vulnerabilities, causes, and strategies to prevent adverse human health outcomes during extreme heat events, Kenny et al., Temperature Open Access pdf 10.1080/23328940.2024.2361223
Other
How Has the Ferrel Cell Contributed to the Maintenance of Antarctic Sea Ice at Low Levels From 2016 to 2022?, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108801
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World, Schimel & Carroll, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-081700
Introduction to the special section: unfolding a governance perspective on climate-related mobilities, Lindegaard et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2379464
Science-based targets miss the mark, Reisinger et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01535-z
Scientists at odds over wild plans to slow melting glaciers, Richter, Science 10.1126/science.adr8012
The Anthropocene Is More Than a Time Interval, Edgeworth et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004831
We need better and more PopSci by scientists, Fuentes, Science 10.1126/science.adq8026
Climate Deniers of the 118th Congress, Kat So, The Center for American Progress
Currently, 123 members of the 118th Congress publicly deny the scientific consensus of human-caused climate change. These 100 representatives and 23 senators wield significant influence on public perceptions of climate change as well as on the speed and direction of climate policy in the United States. Members of Congress also receive publicly disclosed contributions, which may provide a window into the possible influence of the fossil fuel industry.
The Co-Located Load Solution, Michael Kormos, The Nuclear Energy Institute
While co-location could involve the pairing of any type of power plant with any large load, existing nuclear plants provide some of the best opportunities for data centers. Nuclear plants are large, often with multiple units, carbon-free and sustainable, and capable of and preferring to run at maximum power for up to 18 to 24 months, which matches perfectly with the data center load profile.
Protecting Communities, Preserving Nature, and Building Resiliency. How First-of-Its-Kind Climate Insurance Will Help Combat the Costs of Wildfires, Extreme Heat, and Floods, Climate Insurance Working Group, California Department of Insurance
Through examination and discussion of recent climate events in California and their affects on vulnerable communities, the authors identify four key elements of resilience – risk assessment, risk communication, risk reduction, and risk transfer. The authors then apply these key elements of risk to three specific perils – wildfire, flood, and extreme heat to provide specific recommendations for preventing and managing the risks associated with these perils, including closing coverage gaps and strengthening the role of mitigation investments in reducing mounting climate risks to communities.
Regional Consultation for the South Caucasus. Armenia and Georgia: Co-operation opportunities for addressing the security implications of climate change, Rüttinger et al., Organization for Security and Co-operation In Europe
The authors present the results of the bilateral consultation process on climate change and security between Armenia and Georgia, involving stakeholders from governmental bodies, civil society organizations, and academia. The consultation process was part of the first phase of a project, which specifically aims to identify cooperation opportunities to address the security implications of climate change. The outlined opportunities will serve as a starting point for the project’s second phase, which will involve the development of cooperation measures.
Turbocharging the Energy Transition, Lukas Trakimavi?ius, European Union Institute for Security Studies
Perovskite solar cells, next-generation geothermal, advanced biofuels, and sodium-ion batteries are among the many emerging technologies that merit greater attention from Brussels. Not only could they help the Europen Union achieve its climate and energy goals, but they could also reduce its reliance on China.
Building a Climate for Peace. Climate Security in South Asia, Kubernein, adelphi research
The authors present a deeper understanding of the climate security risks posed to South Asia and an overview of the current policy landscape. More importantly, they also draw out future scenarios to understand the interconnectedness of these risks. The author's recommendations are based on intensive background research, expert interviews as well as a virtual and in-person consultative workshop.
Accelerating the energy transition in the Eastern Caribbean, Wazim Mowla, The Atlantic Council
The author identifies two main constraints to the region’s transition: the top-down vertically integrated nature of state-owned utility systems; and limited access to low-cost financing and credit to governments and clean energy developers. While recognizing that an energy transition requires a holistic approach, the starting point must address utility constraints and access to finance to ensure a reliable and resilient energy system transformation that is sustainable and affordable for consumers, governments, and the private sector in the Eastern Caribbean. An energy transition in the Eastern Caribbean must ensure reliable power to combat price volatility for consumers while energy infrastructure should be resilient to the effects of climate change, hurricanes and strong tropical storms, and rising temperatures.
Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil, The World Bank
The authors prepared the report to support the government of Brazil in setting public policies toward its energy transition by looking at offshore wind development. There are a variety of reasons why Brazil might choose to pursue offshore wind development at scale; Offshore wind as “Brazil’s new hydro, ”; long-term cost-competitiveness and price stability; generation close to demand to reduce transmission losses; offshore wind as a foundation for GH2 production, and economic development and job creation.
The New Merchants of Doubt. The corporate playbook by Big Meat and Dairy to distract, delay, and derail climate action, Changing Markets Foundation
The authors present the tactics of Big Meat and Dairy companies to delay, distract, and derail action on food system transformation, mirroring the tactics previously used by tobacco and the fossil fuel industry. Food systems are responsible for around a third of total greenhouse gas emissions, with approximately 60% of that coming from animal agriculture which is also the single largest source of man-made methane emissions. The authors provide a detailed analysis of different corporate narratives to consumers, media, and policymakers, showing how the industry distracts us with the smokescreen of voluntary climate targets, environmentally friendly products, and seemingly ambitious investments in emissions reduction technologies, while behind the scenes, it mobilizes significant resources to delay and derail progressive environmental legislation.
Green Industrial Policy’s Unfinished Business: A Publicly Managed Fossil Fuel Wind-Down, Kate Aronoff, Roosevelt Institute
Fossil fuel extraction, production, and use must decline rapidly to meet even modest climate goals. Leading climate policies today rely primarily on increasing the production and deployment of renewable and zero-carbon energy in the hopes that those will displace fossil fuels throughout the world’s energy systems. While green industrial policies are helping to increase the availability of such fuels and bring down their cost, there are few policies in place to deal explicitly with the much thornier question of winding down the fossil fuel economy: grappling with ongoing, uneven declines and changes in a predominately carbon-based energy system; distributing the burdens of those shifts and decarbonization equitably; and, perhaps most important of all, ensuring that absolute production declines do happen at adequate scale and speed.
2024 Arctic Strategy, Department of Defense
The strategy lays out the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) approach to the Arctic as the region undergoes rapid geophysical and geopolitical change. Climate change and shifts in the geostrategic environment drive the need for a new strategic approach to the Arctic region. The strategy will strengthen the ability of the United States to build integrated deterrence and effectively manage risk to U.S. interests in the Arctic region by enhancing U.S. domain awareness and Arctic capabilities; engaging with Allies, partners, and key stakeholders; and exercising tailored presence.
Evolving Planning Criteria for a Sustainable Power Grid. A Workshop Report, Bose et al., National Academy of Engineering and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The authors summarize the proceedings and actionable recommendations from a workshop that focused on examining electric reliability criteria for planning resources and transmission adequacy on the transforming grid. Given that electricity plays an essential role in modern society, energy adequacy is a critical complementary consideration of resource adequacy to ensure overall system reliability. Traditional resource adequacy models and approaches are rooted in a loss of load expectation (LOLE) criterion of 1-day-in-10 years, which is focused on peak hour conditions. However, LOLE does not adequately account for the growing risk, over all hours, arising from increased variability and uncertainty caused by the evolving resource mix and increasing demand levels. A recent survey of electric industry professionals asked them whether industry should consider a new resource criterion. Data from the survey overwhelmingly indicated that industry should consider a new approach—beyond the LOLE criterion alone—to resource adequacy modeling that reflects the reliability needs of the rapidly evolving grid. Survey results indicated that there is not just one solution, and supplemental criteria are needed that consider the size, frequency, timing, and duration of energy shortfalls.
Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience Rising Seas, Disruptidve Tides, and Risks to Coastal Infrastructure, Dahl et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
Climate change is rapidly worsening tidal flooding, threatening essential and costly coastal infrastructure that millions of people depend on. Research led by the authors shows that between now and 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to disruptive flooding at least twice per year. This flooding is a particular threat to public and affordable housing—a burden borne inequitably. More than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution.
Global Warming’s Six Audiences Around the World, Carman et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
The author's prior research has identified six distinct audiences within the public – the Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive – based on their beliefs and attitudes about climate change. Here, we apply this analysis to our large international survey of more than 100 countries and territories worldwide, collected in partnership with Data for Good at Meta and Rare’s Center for Behavior and the Environment in 2023. We find that the Alarmed are the largest group in about three-fourths of the areas surveyed (87 of the 110). Half or more respondents in thirty-one areas are Alarmed. The five areas with the largest percentage of Alarmed are Puerto Rico (70%), El Salvador (67%), Costa Rica (65%), Chile (64%), and Panama (64%). By contrast, Czechia (10%) and the Netherlands (9%) have the smallest percentages of Alarmed. In the United States, about one-third of respondents are Alarmed (32%). Among all areas, the Netherlands has the highest proportion of Doubtful and Dismissive (30%), followed by Norway (27%) and Libya (25%). In the United States, about one in four respondents are Doubtful or Dismissive (25%).
Taking Stock 2024: US Energy and Emissions Outlook, King et al., Rhodium Group
With all federal and state policies on the books as of June 2024, the authors estimate the U.S. is on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 38-56% below 2005 levels in 2035, representing at least a doubling—and potentially as much as a four-times increase—from the pace of annual emissions abatement from 2005 to 2023. On the way to 2035, the authors find the U.S. could reduce its emissions by 32-43% below 2005 levels in 2030. These emissions reductions under the current policy are a measurable acceleration in mitigation. But they are not enough for the U.S. to achieve its 2030 climate commitment under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction by 2030, or deep decarbonization by mid-century.
Rapid decarbonisation of the GB electricity system, National Engineering Policy Centre
The authors present six key elements required in the government’s delivery plan to achieve its clean power mission, which should be central to its Industrial Strategy. The elements include building strong support for the vision, forming the basis of an enduring agreement with both the public and industry, and helping them to embrace the coming changes; strong central leadership and governance with engineering at the forefront, accountable to the Prime Minister; a digitally enabled system that allows the public to engage with the system more flexibly, benefiting grid operation and saving consumers and government money; a front-foot approach to procurement and regulation to ensure the United Kingdom can get ahead in the global race to decarbonize electricity; tackle difficult planning decisions, consenting, and connection delays while building public support; and retain a long-term view to ensure that the intense focus on delivery towards 2030 does not delay near-term actions needed to unlock the best options for post-2030.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 25 July, 2024
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