Manifold increase in the spatial extent of heatwaves in the terrestrial Arctic, Rantanen et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
It is widely acknowledged that the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing worldwide, including the Arctic. However, less attention has been paid to the land area affected by heatwaves. Here, using atmospheric reanalysis and global climate models, we show that the area covered by heatwaves is substantially expanding in the terrestrial Arctic. Compared to the mid-20th century, the total land area affected by severe heatwaves in the Arctic has doubled, the area of extreme heatwaves has tripled, and the area of very extreme heatwaves has quadrupled. Furthermore, climate model projections suggest that the extent of heatwaves will continue to increase in the 21st century, but with large regional differences in heatwave magnitudes due to summer intraseasonal temperature variability. Our findings underscore the growing vulnerability of the Arctic region to extreme heat, potentially leading to severe impacts on both ecosystems and societies.
Anomalous Arctic warming linked with severe winter weather in Northern Hemisphere continents, Cohen et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
We have extended a recently developed metric that ingests United States station data—the accumulated winter season severity index—to a global indicator based on temperature and snowfall from reanalysis output. The expanded index is analyzed to reveal relationships between Arctic air temperatures/pressures and the probability of severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Here we find a direct and quasilinear relationship between anomalously high Arctic temperatures/pressures and increased severe winter weather, especially in northeastern continental regions downstream of maximum regional Arctic warming. Positive temperature trends in the Arctic are associated with positive trends in severe winter weather across the continents in mid- to late-winter, coinciding with an increase in stratospheric polar vortex disruptions. During the era of rapid Arctic warming, variability has decreased over the Arctic Ocean and Europe, but has increased in Canada, the Northern US and northeast Asia, indicating more pronounced shifts in weather conditions.
Rightwing populist attitudes and public support for climate policies in Western Europe: Widening the scope using the European Social Survey, Kulin & Johansson Sevä, PLOS Climate:
In Western Europe, rightwing populist parties and their supporters frequently deny the realities of climate change and oppose climate policies. Meanwhile, public opinion research has tied ideological orientations associated with rightwing populism to climate change denial/skepticism and climate policy opposition. Yet, comprehensive studies assessing the relative importance of various rightwing populist orientations across national contexts are lacking. Using European Social Survey data (Round 8) from 15 Western European countries, we systematically investigate the relationships between a large set of orientations related to rightwing populism and public views about climate change. The results show that nationalism and nativism, that is, orientations associated with the thick ideology of rightwing populism, appear to be comparably strong and consistent predictors, especially regarding opposition to climate change mitigation policies. However, the relative importance of different orientations varies across Western European countries, and depend on whether the focus is on policy attitudes or climate change beliefs.
A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change, Emmerling et al., Nature Climate Change:
Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion.
The energy commons: A systematic review, paradoxes, and ways forward, Bauwens et al., Energy Research & Social Science:
The growing literature on energy commons suggests that reimagining energy as a common resource is critical for transitioning away from fossil fuel-based systems. However, conceptual and empirical fragmentation in this literature limits our understanding of energy commoning practices. Through a systematic review of 85 articles, we aim to unify the field by analyzing it across three dimensions: material, institutional, and cultural. Materially, we find a focus on energy production, distribution, and use, with less attention to renewable resource harvesting, upstream (e.g., mining), and downstream (e.g., waste management) operations. Institutionally, the emphasis is on local, community-driven initiatives and participatory governance, with limited exploration of multi-scale approaches and other institutional logics. Culturally, the research is centered on Western contexts, highlighting a need for broader geographic and theoretical perspectives. From our analysis, we identify five paradoxes in the literature: 1) inclusivity and exclusivity, 2) a Western focus and the pluriverse, 3) decentralization alongside the need for coordinated governance, 4) a focus on generation and distribution as well as a whole value chain approach, and 5) viewing commons as an alternative to capitalism while acknowledging their co-optation by capitalist systems
Context matters when evacuating large cities: Shifting the focus from individual characteristics to location and social vulnerability, Rufat et al., Environmental Science & Policy:
Recent studies have found inconclusive results on the determinants of evacuation-related decisions and have reported widely varying evacuation rates, especially in high-density areas. We use a large dataset of geotagged evacuation choices in Paris, France (n?=?2976) during a flood, to show that while they are rarely addressed, location, social vulnerability, length of residence, and hazard exposure are critical predictors. They can be used to infer the impact of previous experience on evacuation intentions, which is usually difficult to collect at scales relevant to decision-making. We address multiple evacuation choices over time that have previously been overlooked, including gradually self-fueling spontaneous evacuations after observations of peers evacuating or flooding proximity and post-impact evacuation due to infrastructure disruption. Our findings reveal that many people wait until their home is flooded to evacuate. The gap between the initial share of people leaving immediately and the minority refusing to leave in any case even after their housing is flooded gradually fills when considering different evacuation behaviors over time. Such chronology might explain the wide range of evacuation rates reported in the literature. However, people in vulnerable situations and with increased hazard exposure are more likely to declare that they would disregard evacuation instructions. One key implication is that policies aimed at reducing social vulnerability might be more effective than communication campaigns to increase preparedness and support evacuation.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets, Ackermann et al., Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars/ Polar Institute
Arctic carbon emissions from thawing permafrost will accelerate the pace of global climate disruption and reduce the remaining headroom for direct human emissions before agreed global temperature targets are exceeded—the so-called “carbon budgets” for staying below, e.g., 1.5°C or 2.0°C above the pre-industrial global average surface temperature. The key questions are how much and how fast. The proportion of future Arctic carbon emissions that will be methane (CH4) rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) is of particular importance in determining the answers because of CH4’s much higher impact, per molecule, on global temperature over the next several decades.
Navigating the peace and security implications of climate change: Recommendations on the climate-conflict nexus at COP29, Community of Practice on Environment, Climate, Conflict, and Peace
The authors provide further nuance to some of the most pressing topics within the interlinked environmental, climate change, conflict, and peace domains. Eight core issues are explored alongside actionable recommendations that key decision-makers can enact or demand within the UNFCCC negotiations, at COP29.
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in the SST Seasonal Cycle in a Warmer North Pacific without Ocean Dynamical Feedbacks, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0029.1
Sensitivity of Simulated Arctic Ocean Salinity and Strait Transport to Interannually Variable Hydrologic Model Based Runoff, Weiss?Gibbons et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020536
The Sensitivity of the Spatial Pattern of Sea Level Changes to the Depth of Antarctic Meltwater Fluxes, Eisenman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110633
Observations of climate change, effects
Anomalous Arctic warming linked with severe winter weather in Northern Hemisphere continents, Cohen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01720-0
Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US, Williams et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01640-z
Change detection of the Köppen climate zones in Southeastern Europe, Mimi? et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1270
Heat Stress Metrics, Trends, and Extremes in the Southeastern United States, Wodzicki et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0009.1
How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?, Cattiaux et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110531
Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns, Dong et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8
Manifold increase in the spatial extent of heatwaves in the terrestrial Arctic, Rantanen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01750-8
Northward Shift of Pre-Monsoon Zonal Winds Exacerbating Heatwaves Over India, Jha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110486
Strong contribution from sensible heat to global precipitation increase in climate models is not supported by observational based data, Myhre et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1383337
Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites, Roland et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01564-5
Trends in Temperatures in Latin America: A Time-Series Perspective Based on Fractional Integration, Asturias Schaub & Gil-Alana, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0141.1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Antarctic sea ice surface temperature bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the combined effects of sea ice and clouds, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01692-1
Energy balance closure at FLUXNET sites revisited, Mauder et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110235
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia, Ginesta et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1
Climate Change Impact on “Outdoor Days” Over the United States, Choi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111607
Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2, Swenson & Ullrich, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0133.1
Evaluation and projection of changes in temperature and precipitation over Northwest China based on CMIP6 models, Song et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8622
Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C, Burton et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7
Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity, Priestley et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4849
Future Changes in the Vertical Structure of Severe Convective Storm Environments over the U.S. Central Great Plains, Davis et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0141.1
Historical Trends in Ocean Heat, Carbon, Salinity, and Oxygen Simulations: Impact of a Changing Ocean Transport, Mannis et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021524
Reduced Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry and Increased Extreme Negative Events under Future Greenhouse Warming, Zheng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0107.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Forensic Investigation of Climate Model Biases in Teleconnections: The Case of the Relationship Between ENSO and the Northern Stratospheric Polar Vortex, Shen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041252
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Comparison of indicators to evaluate the performance of climate models, Gómez et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8619
Enhancing Winter Climate Simulations of the Great Lakes: Insights from a New Coupled Lake-Ice-Atmosphere (CLIAv1) Model on the Importance of Integrating 3D Hydrodynamics with a Regional Climate Model, Xue et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-146
Cryosphere & climate change
El Niño enhances snow-line rise and ice loss on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, Lamantia et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-4633-2024
Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change, Lin et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1
Gross Primary Production of Antarctic Landfast Sea Ice: A Model-Based Estimate, Wongpan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021348
Modeling Ocean Heat Transport to the Grounding Lines of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, Dinh et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110078
Surface Warming Constraint Projects Less Permafrost Thawing in High Mountain Asia, Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110465
Winter snowpack loss increases warm-season compound hot-dry extremes, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01734-8
Sea level & climate change
Shaping the Coast: Accounting for the Human Wildcard in Projections of Future Change, Lentz et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004504
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Extinction cascades, community collapse, and recovery across a Mesozoic hyperthermal event, Dunhill et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53000-2
Global hydroclimate perturbations during the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event, Kemp et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104946
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Air and Surface Temperatures Differently Drive Terrestrial Carbon and Water Cycles in the High Latitudes, Tang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110652
An Invasion Risk Assessment of Alien Woody Species in Potential National Park Sites in Xinjiang, China, Under Climate Change, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70394
Climate change driven effects on transport, fate and biogeochemistry of trace element contaminants in coastal marine ecosystems, Zitoun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01679-y
Climate change reduces the tension of conflicting selection pressures on breeding date in a passerine bird, Moelling & Duckworth, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2024.0959
Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping, Womersley et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5
Coral responses to a catastrophic marine heatwave are decoupled from changes in total coral cover at a continental scale, Mellin et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2024.1538
Forest assisted migration and adaptation plantings in the Northeastern US: perspectives and applications from early adopters, Clark et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1386211
Global warming triggers abrupt regime shifts in island lake ecosystems in the Azores Archipelago, Pla-Rabes et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01744-6
Growth conditions of tree species relative to climate change and sea level rise in low-lying Mid Atlantic coastal forests, Haaf & Dymond, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1362650
Increasing Optimum Temperature of Vegetation Activity Over the Past Four Decades, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004489
Interaction between three key species in the sea ice-reduced Arctic Barents Sea system, Durant et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.1408
Investigating the impact of climate and land use changes on soil erosion in the Anning River basin in China, Luo et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1416387
Local adaptation of Dromiciops marsupials (Microbiotheriidae) from southern South America: Implications for species management facing climate change, Quintero?Galvis et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70355
Overestimation of Mangroves Deterioration From Sea Level Rise in Tropical Deltas, Dai et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109675
Plant community responses to the individual and interactive effects of warming and herbivory across multiple years, Young et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4441
Snowmelt duration controls red algal blooms in the snow of the European Alps, , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2400362121
Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability, Tonelli et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14526
The departure of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in response to the declining jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) population in the central portion of the Gulf of California, Pérez-Puig et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18117
The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change, Mattila et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.1351
Warming reduces trophic diversity in high-latitude food webs, Jackson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17518
Warming, nitrogen deposition, and provenance shift above–belowground insect interactions and host compensatory growth, Zhou & He, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4445
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A preliminary study of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from patchy tropical seagrass meadows in Thailand, Halim et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18087
Arctic soil carbon trajectories shaped by plant–microbe interactions, Machmuller et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02147-3
Attribution of Excess Methane Emissions Over Marine Environments of the Mediterranean and Arabian Peninsula, Bourtsoukidis et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041621
Direct Evidence for Microbial Regulation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Carbon Decomposition, Pei et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17523
Global Estimates of Particulate Organic Carbon Concentration From the Surface Ocean to the Base of the Mesopelagic, Fox et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008149
Interannual and seasonal variability of the air–sea CO2 exchange at Utö in the coastal region of the Baltic Sea, Honkanen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-4341-2024
Modeling fuel-, vehicle-type-, and age-specific CO2 emissions from global on-road vehicles in 1970–2020, Yan et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-4497-2024
Plant–microbe interactions explain the surprising recovery of Arctic soil carbon stocks, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5
Response: Commentary: Large Trees Dominate Carbon Storage in Forests East of the Cascade Crest in the United States Pacific Northwest, Mildrexler et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1419180
Soil Carbon Accumulation Under Afforestation Is Driven by Contrasting Responses of Particulate and Mineral-Associated Organic Carbon, Zhai et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008116
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Terrestrial Carbon Sink and Clean Air Co-Benefits From China's Carbon Neutrality Policy, Li et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004631
The effects of land use on soil carbon stocks in the UK, Levy et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4301-2024
Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity, Gaber et al., Open Access 10.5194/bg-2023-141
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Modeling Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage in the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0, Nole et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-162
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Zhang et al., Energies Open Access pdf 10.3390/en13153829
The Impact of Drought on Terrestrial Carbon in the West African Sahel: Implications for Natural Climate Solutions, Rigatti et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008143
Decarbonization
Does size matter? The effects of biomethane project size on social acceptability, Bourdin & Delcayre, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114363
Impacts of Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farms on Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Typhoon Hato, Zhang et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0160.1
Maintaining reliability in a 100% decarbonized power sector: The interrelated role of flexible resources, Tournier & Pineau, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114365
Projecting Future Mercury Emissions From Global Biofuel Combustion Under the Carbon Neutrality Target, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004917
Solar cells combined with geothermal or wind power systems reduces climate and environmental impact, Shamoushaki & Koh Bukhari, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01739-3
Strategic investments: Electrolysis vs. storage for Europe’s energy security in the hydrogen era, Blanchard, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114371
Techno-Economic Analysis of Solar, Wind and Biomass Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Bhorha Village, India, Patil et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106362
Geoengineering climate
Global perspectives on solar geoengineering: A novel framework for analyzing research in pursuit of effective, inclusive, and just governance, Dove et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103779
Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways, Nagwekar et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004213
Climate change communications & cognition
Politicization of climate change and Central and Eastern European countries’ stance towards the European Green Deal, Witajewska-Baltvilka et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102932
Rightwing populist attitudes and public support for climate policies in Western Europe: Widening the scope using the European Social Survey, Kulin & Johansson Sevä, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000443
Scientists have emotional responses to climate change too, Schipper et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02139-3
The politics of climate change knowledge: labelling climate change-induced uprooted people, Ud Din, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2411912
Truth and democracy in an era of misinformation, Lewandowsky, Science 10.1126/science.ads5695
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate change mitigation policies in agriculture: An overview of sociopolitical barriers, Kabir et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.916
Climate change mitigation policies in agriculture: An overview of sociopolitical barriers, Kabir et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.916
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Nocturnal peak methane flux diel patterns in rice paddy fields, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110238
Planning for climate change resilience—Collation, update and assessment of Mozambique’s marine fisheries data and management, Mafuca et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000494
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Enhancing Drought Risk Assessment in the Punjab, Pakistan: A Copula-Based Modeling Approach for Future Projections, Akram et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0041.1
Future Change in the Contribution of Riming and Depositional Growth to the Surface Solid Precipitation in Hokkaido, Japan, Sato et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0226.1
Projected climatic exposure and velocities of precipitation extremes over India and its biogeographic zones, Sachan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8629
The contribution of Arabian Sea warming to decreasing summer precipitation in the northern Greater Mekong Subregion, Chu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107714
Climate change economics
A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change, Emmerling et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Analysis of Indonesia's priority selection: Energy transition, energy-related measures, mining governance, and resource transition using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Ali & Kim, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101559
Exploring the effect of Guarantees of Origin on the decarbonization of corporate electricity procurement: A case study of Germany and Norway, Paris et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13553
Political polarization and the energy policy paradox: assessing the impact of South Korea’s nuclear power phase-out policy, Kim et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2411933
Scenario analysis of supply- and demand-side solutions for circular economy and climate change mitigation in the global building sector, Pauliuk et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13557
Systematic review of the climatic and non-climatic benefits of green roofs in urban areas, Aleksejeva et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102133
The energy commons: A systematic review, paradoxes, and ways forward, Bauwens et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103776
The impact of carbon emission trading policy on regional total factor productivity, Wen & Meng, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1411608
When does the energy transition impact household affordability? A mixed-methods comparison of fourteen coal and carbon-intensive regions, Martinez-Reyes et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102936
Why path dependence leads to a fossilized Alberta: regionalism and the climate transition in Canada, Massé, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2413345
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Context matters when evacuating large cities: Shifting the focus from individual characteristics to location and social vulnerability, Rufat et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103925
Landslide Hazard Is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia, Stanley et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004325
Learning About Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions, Völz et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004704
Climate change impacts on human health
Tracking climate adaptation in hospitals: An inventory of structural measures, Elstow et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100657
Other
A comparative study of strategic petroleum reserve policies of major countries in the world, Zhang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114362
Observed decrease in Deep Western Boundary Current transport in subpolar North Atlantic, Koman et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01555-6
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A call to strengthen international collaboration to assess climate change effects in polar regions, Gaffey et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000495
Editorial: Spatial and temporal monitoring of wildfire hazard under a climate change environment: prevention, mitigation and management, Sakellariou et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1474323
Feasibility concerns, , Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-02166-0
Science for transformative change: the IPCC, boundary work and the making of useable knowledge, Lidskog, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1408513
Book reviews
The road to the Paris Agreement, Marcu et al., Open Access pdf 10.22617/wps190559-2
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Colombia, Andersen et al., Stockholm International Research Peace Institute
Colombia’s decades-long conflict culminated in the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which included aims to achieve peace through rural reform, reintegration of former combatants, addressing illicit crop cultivation, and ensuring land restitution and voluntary return for displaced individuals. The authors focus on how climate-related peace and security risks interact with specific provisions of the peace agreement and provide an update on the situation since 2022.
Global Drought Overview, Toreti et al., Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
Severe droughts are currently affecting most of South America, southern Africa and the Zambezi basin, the Mediterranean, and eastern Europe with extremely dry and warm conditions. Heatwaves and warm spells are exacerbating the impacts of the lack of precipitation. The rare combination of strong positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole, together with the warm phase of the Tropical North Atlantic and climate change, are likely key drivers of drought in South America, southern and central Africa, and extreme heat in South America, Africa, the Mediterranean, and East Europe.
Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets, Ackermann et al., Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars/ Polar Institute
Arctic carbon emissions from thawing permafrost will accelerate the pace of global climate disruption and reduce the remaining headroom for direct human emissions before agreed global temperature targets are exceeded—the so-called “carbon budgets” for staying below, e.g., 1.5°C or 2.0°C above the pre-industrial global average surface temperature. The key questions are how much and how fast. The proportion of future Arctic carbon emissions that will be methane (CH4) rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) is of particular importance in determining the answers because of CH4’s much higher impact, per molecule, on global temperature over the next several decades.
State of Global Water Resources 2023, Mishra et al., World Meteorological Organization
The year 2023 was marked by unprecedented heat, becoming the hottest year on record at 1.45 °C above pre-industrial levels. The transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions, as well as the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, contributed to this extreme heat and diverse weather impacts ranging from heavy rains and floods to droughts. Levels of soil moisture were predominantly below normal or much below normal across large territories globally, with North America, South America, North Africa, and the Middle East particularly dry during June–August. In 2023, glaciers lost more than 600 gigatons (Gt) of water, the largest mass loss registered in the last five decades. Following 2022, 2023 is the second consecutive year in which all glaciated regions in the world reported ice loss.
Federal Spending for Flood Adaptations, Humphrey et al., Congressional Budget Office
The federal government provides funds for flood adaptations—projects aimed at preventing damage from flooding. Those projects include constructing dams and levees, restoring beaches, and elevating or buying out individual properties. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office provides information about the amount of damage that could be reduced through spending for flood adaptations. Over the past 10 years, damage from flooding in the United States has averaged $46 billion per year (in 2023 dollars). That damage is projected to be a quarter to a third greater in 2050 because of increases in flood risk due to climate change. Although the effects of adaptation projects can vary widely, estimates from the Army Corps of Engineers indicate that two-thirds of its projects—excluding those with the highest one-sixth and lowest one-sixth of benefit-cost ratios—were expected to reduce flood damage by $2 to $6 per dollar of spending over a 50-year project lifetime. For those projects, the average expected reduction in damage was $3 for each dollar spent. CBO’s assessment of FEMA’s flood adaptation projects indicates roughly $2 in expected reductions in damage for every dollar spent. (All of those estimates reflect the value of future costs and benefits at the time the projects were planned.)
Climate Resilience: Congressional Action Needed to Enhance Climate Economics Information and to Limit Federal Fiscal Exposure, Gómez et al., Government Accountability Office
Federal fiscal exposure to climate change can be limited by enhancing climate resilience—that is, taking actions to reduce potential future losses by planning and preparing for potential climate hazards. GAO was asked to review the economic costs of climate change to the federal government and to provide details on how Congress might establish an organizational arrangement to prioritize federal climate resilience investments. The authors examine (1) available information on the projected economic costs and benefits estimated to be incurred by the federal government as a result of climate change, (2) the extent to which the federal government has developed the capacity to acquire economic data to help understand federal climate-related financial risks, and (3) what key elements should be included in a federal organizational arrangement to prioritize climate resilience projects for federal investments.
Too Hot to Handle. The scorching reality of Australia’s climate–security failure, Barrie et al., Australian Security Leaders Climate Group
The assessment of climate risks external to Australia, carried out by the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) and completed in November 2022, has been classified and hidden from politicians overseeing security and climate policy, and from the public. Climate was mentioned only in passing in the Defence Security Review. The climate analysis in the 2023 Intergenerational Report was only partial. A domestically-focused National Climate Risk Assessment is under way, but its approach to assessing risks is in our view seriously deficient. The government also has in progress a National Adaptation Plan Issues Paper and a Climate Risk and Opportunity Management Program for the public sector 2024–26. The fundamental failing running through this work is the refusal to accept the size and immediacy of climate risk in 2024, its compounding nature, and its future implications, as the basis for mitigation and adaptation policy.
Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems, Gorman et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors explore tradeoffs between the use of home solar+storage systems for backup power versus day-to-day utility bill savings. They focus specifically on the “reserve setting” available with most home battery storage systems, which allows the customer to maintain some minimum level of storage in reserve in case of an unforeseen power interruption. The more capacity that is held in reserve, the greater the customer’s ability to ride through possible power interruptions, but less capacity is then available to manage utility bills on a day-to-day basis. The authors evaluate this operational tradeoff across a diverse set of locations and residential electricity tariff structures, relying on Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO model to stochastically simulate power interruption events, and exploring a range of sensitivities, including variations in customer value of lost load (VoLL), interruption frequency, and other key drivers.
Navigating the peace and security implications of climate change: Recommendations on the climate-conflict nexus at COP29, Community of Practice on Environment, Climate, Conflict, and Peace
The authors provide further nuance to some of the most pressing topics within the interlinked environmental, climate change, conflict, and peace domains. Eight core issues are explored alongside actionable recommendations that key decision-makers can enact or demand within the UNFCCC negotiations, at COP29.
Climate’s Bottom Line Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target, Net-Zero Advisory Body
The authors recommend developing a national carbon budget for Canada. Carbon budgets are used by other countries to better track the effect of policy decisions on the climate and the consequences of delaying action. Alongside the carbon budget, the authors recommend that Canada adopt a 2035 emissions target of 50-55% reduction below 2005 levels.
Strengthening European Climate Policy, Sánchez et al., Palgrave/MacMillian
This open-access book foregrounds 10 novel collaborations between the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH), and Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) disciplines, for strengthening European climate policy.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 10 October, 2024
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