Skeptical Science New Research for Week #8 2026

Open access notables

A desk piled high with research reportsInoculation theory as a design approach to game-based misinformation interventions: a review, Henderson & Pallett, Popular Communication

Misinformation has been demonstrated to pose a great risk to society, demanding action from policymakers and educators. Inoculation theory is a theory of resistance to influence, which in recent years has been a foundational theory for game-based interventions against misinformation. While many game-based interventions have been found to be efficacious, there is a lack of understanding of the underlying mechanisms which make them work. This review critically engages with the current state of game-based misinformation interventions, identifies gaps in game design and research, and investigates the relationship between inoculation theory and game design. We find that homogeneity in design has left some areas of game design underexplored, and discussion surrounding game design decisions—particularly the integration of inoculation theory components—is often superficial. We call for further research understanding the efficacy of different game designs and design processes, and more discussion of how inoculation mechanisms can be stimulated in game-based contexts.

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood, Calvo-Sancho et al., Nature Communications

In October 2024, Valencia (Spain) experienced rainfall accumulations in a few hours surpassing annual averages (771.8 mm in 16 h in the official weather station at Turís) and breaking the record for one hour rainfall accumulation in Spain (184.6 mm), resulting in 230 fatalities. Here, we present a physical-based attribution study employing a km-scale pseudo-global warming storyline approach to assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change. We show that present-day conditions led to a 20% °C?¹ increase in 1-hour rainfall intensity, exceeding Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This intensification was driven by enhanced atmospheric moisture from warmer sea surface temperatures, leading to increased convective available potential energy, stronger updrafts, and microphysical changes including elevated graupel concentrations. These results demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change could intensify the occurrence of flash-floods in the Western Mediterranean region: in this particular case, it intensified the 6-h rainfall rate by 21%, amplified the area with total rainfall above 180 mm by 55%, and increased the volume of total rain within the Jucar River catchment by 19% compared to the pre-industrial era. 

A chilling effect in a warming world: how the threat of SLAPPs shapes climate law, Arvan, Environmental Politics

Strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs) are meritless cases filed by powerful actors seeking to silence their critics through costly, protracted litigation. As climate change litigation (CCL) against corporations has surged since the Paris Agreement, so too has the threat of retaliatory SLAPPs against climate activists. In the US, activists must weigh the threat of being entangled in a resource-depleting SLAPP in decisions around whether, and where, to file strategic CCL. SLAPPs so burden the courts and contravene democratic values that 35 states and the District of Columbia have laws attempting to restrict them. How does spatial and temporal variation in legal protections afforded by state anti-SLAPP laws affect activists’ willingness to sue corporations over climate change? Analyzing CCL caseloads in American courts between 2015 and 2024, I find jurisdictions with anti-SLAPP protections attract corporate CCL, indicating that legislative action on free speech helps shape the development of climate law.

Comparing two court rulings on Shell's carbon emissions with climate-policy science, van den Bergh & van Soest, Energy Research & Social Science

In November 2024, a ruling by a Dutch Court of Appeal overturned a 2021 District Court verdict concerning the obligations of the oil and gas company Shell to reduce its carbon emissions. This perspective article examines the scientific basis of the differing arguments in the two court rulings, with a particular focus on the effectiveness of emissions-reduction strategies. To this end, we first summarize the reasoning in both rulings and identify their key points of divergence. Subsequently, we assess which ruling aligns more closely with the scientific literature on climate policy. Our analysis zooms in on four issues: the public-good nature of climate mitigation and the problem of free-riding; the aim and impact of the European Union's Emissions Trading System; the treatment of Scope 3 emissions generated by end users of Shell's products; and the roles of companies versus the state in achieving emissions reductions. We conclude that the Court of Appeal's ruling is more consistent with current scientific insights about effective climate policy than the earlier District Court decision. This is not to deny that companies like Shell will have to fundamentally transform – or otherwise eventually disappear – on the path to a zero?carbon economy. But such change is most likely to occur as the outcome of a systemic policy approach that delivers steady and substantial emissions reductions across all sectors and jurisdictions. We therefore argue that a more effective legal strategy is to pursue legal action against governments that fail to implement policies in line with internationally agreed climate targets.

From this week's government/NGO section:

A climate of insecurity. Climate change and organized crime in citiesAntônio Sampaio, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

The author examines the intersection of climate change and organized crime in cities. The relationship between these issues is a critical area for policy and programming in governments and multilateral organizations. There is already significant evidence of the central role that cities play as destinations for climate-affected migrants fleeing both rapid- and slow-onset disruptions to their rural livelihoods or moving within cities affected by sea level rises, increased flooding or heat islands. Urbanization is not necessarily a negative or crime-inducing trend, but the rapid movement of people to areas unprepared to cope with service provision and law enforcement demands, coupled with increased pressures on resources such as water and land, can provide opportunities for criminal groups to profit through exploitative, predatory and violent practices. Three such areas require policy and expert attention: human trafficking and modern slavery affecting rural-to-urban migrants; organized crime involvement in water provision in cities; and corruption and the operation of mafia-style groups in urban land and housing.

When Home Becomes Uninhabitable. Planned Relocations as a Global Challenge in the Era of Climate ChangeNadine Knapp, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

With climate change advancing, the planned relocation of entire communities from risk areas is becoming unavoidable. It is already a reality worldwide and will become increasingly necessary in the future as a measure of climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Relocation can save lives and reduce the risk of displacement. Nevertheless, this measure is considered a “last resort” because it is expensive, deeply affects livelihoods, social networks and cultural identities, and carries new risks. To be effective, it must be participatory, human rights-based, and accompanied by development-oriented measures that strengthen the well-being and resilience of those affected and reduce structural inequalities. Many places lack the political will, concrete strategies and resources for this – especially in low-income countries with already limited adaptation capacities. These countries are therefore heavily dependent on international support, which has mostly been fragmented, ad hoc and uncoordinated.

125 articles in 45 journals by 823 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Characterising marine heatwaves in the Svalbard Archipelago and surrounding seas, Williams-Kerslake et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-4269

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Contributions to Future Extreme-Rainfall Intensification: A Case Study for Belgium, Schoofs et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70192

End-of-Twenty-First-Century Changes on the Antarctic Continental Shelf under Mid- and High-Range Emissions Scenarios, Dawson et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0189.1

Increased Heat Transport Through Barrow Canyon and Its Impact on Subsurface Warming in the Western Arctic Ocean, Itoh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc022717

Marine cloud brightening mitigates the warming induced by the aerosol reductions toward carbon neutrality, Yu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03304-6

Quantifying the Causal Effect of Cloud-Controlling Factors on Marine Stratocumulus Clouds, Bock et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0153.1

Shifts in the Annual Cycle and Associated Impacts on Northern Hemisphere Summer Onset Under Global Warming, Gan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120126

Subtropical Atmospheric Response to Extratropical SST Warming in the Western North Pacific Under Atmospheric Internal Variability, Miura & Tanimoto, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl118296

Observations of climate change, effects

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood, Calvo-Sancho et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9

Observed Changes in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures and Daily Temperature Range in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands Between 1952 and 2022, Corell et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70182

Pan-Arctic Peatlands Have Expanded During Recent Warming, Handley et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70684

Quantifying Global Climate Change Impacts on Daily Record-Breaking Temperature Events in China Over the Past Six Decades, Cheng et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70191

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Warming Climate May Influence Forecast Performance: Analysing the Skill of Maximum Temperature Seasonal Climate Forecasts Over Southern Africa, Ntele et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70303

Assessing Past and Future Temperature- and Precipitation-Based Indicators in the Republic of Yemen, Alvar?Beltrán et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70299

DCENT-I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset, CHAN et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5v16s

From Archives to Insights: Extreme Weather Events and Socio-Economic Impacts in Madagascar From Newly Digitised Historical Climate Records (1949–1966), Noone et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70203

Methane record at Plateau Rosa confirms its role as background station with episodic sensitivity to European emissions, Zazzeri et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03294-5

Reconstruction of last millennium sea surface temperature on 1° grid using a random forest algorithm, Michel et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105279

The evolution of citizen weather stations in urban climate research: A bibliometric analysis, Agrawal et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102808

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

AMOC Weakening Shapes Ocean Heat Storage Patterns Under Strong Idealized Warming, Ventrucci et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120405

Antarctic Meltwater Accelerates Southern Ocean Evolution Under Projected Atmospheric Warming, Vankova et al., 10.22541/essoar.176083657.72271615/v1

Diverging Spring Warming and Growing Season Shifts Across Eurasia and North America Under Future Climate, Hu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120295

End-of-Twenty-First-Century Changes on the Antarctic Continental Shelf under Mid- and High-Range Emissions Scenarios, Dawson et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0189.1

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Australian Monsoon Over Northern Australia, Kiani et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70282

Future Weakening of the Kuroshio Extension Decadal Variability Revealed by an Eddy-Resolving Global Climate Model, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118480

Global water cycle changes in a warming climate: Projection from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean, Cai et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108864

How Do Projections of Meteorological Droughts Vary Across Models and Regions?, Douville, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl119644

Projected Late 21st Century Warming Unprecedented in Northwest China in a Holocene Context, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl117890

Response of Tropical Cyclone-Related Precipitation During Boreal Summer Season Over East Asia to Pseudo-Global-Warming Climates, Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70201

Revisiting the CMIP6 simulations of the most-concerned surface air temperature changes at the Earth’s three poles, ZHAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.02.010

Simulated Delay in the Onset of the Rainy Season in Central-East Brazil under Global Warming Influenced by Plant Physiological Response, Samuel et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0720.1

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rainfall Variability and Extremes in Ethiopia Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios, Waza & Weijun, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70301

The Moist Static Energy Budget of Australian Summer Monsoon Bursts in Climate Models: Insights From Present and Warming Climate Scenarios, Mohanty et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044471

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Novel Sequential Weighting and Standardisation Framework for Robust Drought Assessment Using CMIP6 Projections, Abbas et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70287

Do CMIP6 earth system models outperform their predecessors in simulating global vegetation changes?, Xu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111067

FRIDA-Clim v1.0.1: a simple climate model with process-based carbon cycle used in the integrated assessment model FRIDAv2.1, Wells et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-1429-2026

Improving regional precipitation simulation over South China: a comparative evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and CMIP6 models, He et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108822

Robust Estimates of Earth System Predictability of the First Kind Using the CESM2 Multiyear Prediction System (CESM2-MP), Kim et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0329.1

Strengths and Limitations of Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling for the Representation of Compound Dry and Hot Events Over Spain, Legasa et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70183

Cryosphere & climate change

AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework, Schmitt et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026

Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss, van den Akker et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-441

Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems, , Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17611356

Exploring the Links Between Variations in Snow Cover Area and Climatic Variables Across the Upper Indus Basin Under a Changing Climate, Muzammal et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70195

Extratropical cyclones as buffers and drivers of changes in surface mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet under global warming, XU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.02.004

Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future, Gutiérrez-González et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2616

Irreversible Transitions of the Ocean Circulation in Antarctic Ice-Shelf Cavities, Saddier et al., 10.22541/essoar.176087307.79514769/v1

Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks, Muilwijk et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747

The 2016 Abrupt Antarctic Sea Ice Decline: A Reevaluation with New Perspectives, Eabry et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0105.1

Sea level & climate change

Physical limits of sea-level rise adaptation in global river deltas, Lasch et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6830002/v1

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Evolution of Pliocene-Pleistocene tropical terrestrial Andean temperature amplification, Pérez-Angel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520191123

Forced changes in Atlantic overturning are distinctly fingerprinted by South Atlantic western boundary transports, Marcello et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03282-9

From statistical correlations to dynamic models in the study of past human resilience to climate change, Ben-Oren et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103127

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Anomalously Low New Production in the Northeast Atlantic During Spring 2024: A Consequence of Weaker Winter Mixing?, Painter et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023249

Arctic vegetation greenness trends increased with expanding impervious surfaces during 1990?2018, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.02.009

Asynchronous abrupt changes of lake ecosystems in the Anthropocene, Wu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105376

Climate Change Challenges Grey Wolf Resilience: Insights From Dental Microwear, Burtt et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.70337

Climate Change Impacts the Structure and Nitrogen-Fixing Activities of Subarctic Feather Moss Microbiomes Across a Precipitation Gradient, Alvarenga et al., 10.1101/2025.06.06.658193

Climate extremes intensify global lake eutrophication by increasing the stress resistance of harmful bloom-forming algae, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69529-3

Deep refuges: the distribution of marine fish in warming subtropics, Tsemel et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.174188362.23468421/v1

Global Trends in Drought Impacts on Wildlife—A Review, McTigue et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70752

Lagged responses in the composition of small mammal communities to a century of climate change, Abercrombie et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08010

Negative effects of extreme weather events on periphytic algal community in montane forest zone, Zhu et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2026.1620026

Ocean acidification modifies site fidelity and patterns of seagrass habitat use by a herbivorous fish, Mirasole et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107914

Ocean acidification reduces diatom and photosynthetic gene abundance on plastic in an coastal bay mesocosm experiment, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107917

Phenological Shifts in Wood Formation Tracked by Frost Rings Across Two Centuries, Mantovani et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70745

Pressure of Invasive Alien Species Trachemys scripta on Native Species Under Future Climate Change Scenarios, Kaya et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73084

Range-extending fish become competitive dominants under ocean warming but not heatwaves or acidification, Mitchell et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70226

Seasonal divergence in the sensitivity of carbon and water fluxes to climate variability in terrestrial ecosystems, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110916

The Crucial Role of Local Adaptation in the Conservation of the Giant Panda Under Climate Change, Yu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70758

Thermal niches and climate change reshape marine invasion risk worldwide, Angeles-Gonzalez et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107919

Towards climate-ready marine protected areas: challenges and strategic pathways, Fuchs et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00184-3

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes in a heathland and an evergreen forest in the temperate zone under contrasting annual and seasonal meteorological and environmental conditions, Naseer et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111070

Compounded effects on wetland greenhouse gas fluxes from climate change and water management along a saline to freshwater gradient, Doughty et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2513685123

Forest Reorganization Sustains Carbon Sequestration Under Climate Change, Dollinger et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gb008970

Lifecycle assessment of carbon emissions from low earth orbit satellite and terrestrial internet networks, Zain ul Abidin et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2625966

Multi-scale concurrent modeling of air pollutants and greenhouse gases over greater Boston. Part 1: Methodology and meteorological evaluation, Yang & Zhang, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5774622

Net primary productivity orchestrates uncertainty sources driving global soil organic carbon under land use change, Gang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03312-6

Pan-Arctic Peatlands Have Expanded During Recent Warming, Handley et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70684

Spruce Budworm Defoliation Influences Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Streams, Ouimet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009152

The Growing Threat of Extreme Drought-Heat to the Amazon Carbon Sink, Liu, AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002309

The role of the tropical carbon balance in determining the large atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023, Feng et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Air-Sea Gas Exchange in the Coastal Baltic Sea: Implications for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal, Dobashi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc023324

Decarbonization

China's strategy for joint implementation of the UNFCCC and CBD: A case study of biodiversity-friendly wind power projects, CAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.02.002

Critical success factors for floating photovoltaic (FPV) deployment: Insights from Türkiye's renewable energy sector, Ozorhon & Yerlikaya, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115129

Long-term evaluation of the energy consumption of 100 energy-efficient buildings in Austria, Roßkopf-Nachbaur et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115107

Low-carbon transition of phosphorus chemical industrial parks: A global systematic review, Yu et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080

Measuring the impact of installed renewable capacity on employment, Barrutiabengoa Ortubai & Ortiz Durán, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115106

No empty land: Comparing distributional outcomes of solar parks across land tenure regimes in India, Khar & Iychettira, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104544

Aerosols

Remaining aerosol forcing uncertainty after observational constraint and the processes that cause it, Regayre et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3755

Stratospheric biomass burning aerosols compensate record-breaking ozone depletion over the Arctic in spring 2020, Zhong et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69728-y

Climate change communications & cognition

Inoculation theory as a design approach to game-based misinformation interventions: a review, Henderson & Pallett, Popular Communication Open Access 10.1080/15405702.2026.2619473

The science influencers going viral on TikTok to fight misinformation, Clarke, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00472-5

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate Change Mitigation in Rice Farming Should Account for Biodiversity, Pérez?Méndez et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70754

Spatially explicit global assessment of cropland greenhouse gas emissions circa 2020, Cao et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02558-4

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

How Do Projections of Meteorological Droughts Vary Across Models and Regions?, Douville, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl119644

Interaction between atmospheric rivers and marine heatwaves in the North Pacific, Zhang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01350-7

The Impact of Regional Vegetation Heterogeneity on the Runoff and Sediment Effects of Future Climate Change, Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70296

Climate change economics

International financial support to achieve the net-zero emissions goal could help resolve equity trade-off between developing and developed countries, Fujimori et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03208-5

The impact of climate change response disclosure on commercial bank performance in Vietnam, Do et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-02775-z

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A chilling effect in a warming world: how the threat of SLAPPs shapes climate law, Arvan, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2624245

Climate policy optimization for oil-exporting economies: A DSGE approach to Oman’s environmental transformation, Chakroun, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115182

Comparing two court rulings on Shell's carbon emissions with climate-policy science, van den Bergh & van Soest, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104568

Legal complexity undermines effective climate policy implementation, Hurka & Steinebach, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2026.2629393

Open science practices for better NDCs: Supporting transparent and accountable climate mitigation action, Beltramo et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000839

Starting points for navigating the maze of SDG interactions, Huan et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104329

The impact of corruption on climate change mitigation: a review article, Sundström et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2621602

The impacts of committed oil projects on remaining oil production: implications for a just transition, Draeger et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115163

Towards net-zero power in western India by 2050: Modeling nuclear and BESS expansion under regional policy constraints, Chatterjee et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115165

Tracking country-level mitigation progress using NGHGI-consistent carbon budgets, Weber et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69078-9

[Review] Interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from health-system solid waste: a systematic review, McGushin et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101418

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptation dynamics: rolling waves of change in adaptation-intensive regions, Jahan Khan Ranon et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2620541

Climate adaptation justice as lived experience: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand, Parsons et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5718153

Defining transformational adaptation and why it matters, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02550-4

Delivering heat-resilient housing in England: Reflections on the role of overheating building regulations in a warming climate, Halai et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115152

Enabling cross-sectoral transformation for coastal climate adaptation in Europe: Four directions for interdisciplinary efforts, Tomej et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104334

Improving Climate Services for Tribes: Recommendations from a National Survey of Service Users and Providers, Yazzie et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0182.1

More than mitigation: The role of forests in climate adaptation, Reek et al., Science 10.1126/science.ads4361

Physical limits of sea-level rise adaptation in global river deltas, Lasch et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6830002/v1

Towards operationalising climate resilient development pathways, Steynor et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104338

Using markets to adapt to climate change, Greenhill et al., Science 10.1126/science.aea7431

Other

Deconstructing the ivory tower: The liminal space between margins and centers in climate research, Belmin et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104553

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Editorial: Forest landscape restoration and carbon storage dynamics, Rawat et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1780993

Open science practices for better NDCs: Supporting transparent and accountable climate mitigation action, Beltramo et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000839

Trump team’s new rule could make firing government scientists easier, Garisto, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00443-w


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Regulating Data Center Water Use in California, Grimm et al., Center for Law, Energy & the Environment, UC Berkeley School of Law

The authors reviewed current knowledge on data center water use, mapped the policy and regulatory framework for direct data center water use in California, and developed recommendations. For example, existing reporting requirements have not provided a clear understanding of data center water use in California. Lack of data and transparency hinder an understanding of how much water data centers use, what ‘efficient’ water use looks like, what water sources data centers draw from, what the impacts of their water use are, and how those impacts compare to other water uses.

The Resilience Agenda. Meeting Europe’s security, climate and competitiveness goals together, Vergote et al., Systemiq Ltd, University of Oxford and The Clingendael Institute

The authors outlines seven priorities for Europe across the resilience nexus of security, climate action and competitiveness. Not claiming to be complete, this strategic agenda sets out to spark discussion.

Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario, Sikorsky et al., Center for Climate and Security

The effects of climate change are already posing significant security challenges worldwide. Extreme weather regularly destroys lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure; warming temperatures affect food and water security, amplifying fragility and cross-border tensions. Governments are increasingly attuned to the risks of instability, tensions, or even conflict in climate-changed geographies, including in the Arctic. Against this backdrop, scientists also warn that key climate tipping points, or systems-level irreversible changes, are fast-approaching, including the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the reversal of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and faster-than-expected permafrost thaw.

Fiscal Federalism for Climate Action in India: Expectations from the 16th Finance Commission, Gopalika Arora and Nilanjan Ghosh, Observer Research Foundation

Climate change has now evolved into a systemic risk that is reshaping economic systems, governance structures, and the landscape within which India’s fiscal federalism operates. As climate impacts intensify, the existing foundation of inter-governmental fiscal transfers is being tested. As the 16th Finance Commission embarks on releasing its recommendations this year, it faces a critical opportunity to strengthen the alignment between India’s climate commitments and its fiscal architecture. The authors explore how inter-governmental fiscal transfers can be designed as an effective instrument for climate action and environmental stewardship in India. They trace the emergence of ecological fiscal transfers through forest-based tax devolution and reforms in disaster risk financing, while highlighting persistent limitations. These include the use of narrow ecological proxies, the reactive nature of disaster finance, and the exclusion of emerging climate risks such as heatwaves.

UK defence: Renewed interest in the Arctic, Mills et al., House of Commons Library, UK Parliament

There has been a renewed interest in Arctic security as the region moves from being one of “high north, low tension” to an area of increasing geopolitical competition. That shift has been driven by the effects of climate change, such as melting ice and rising sea levels, which has the potential to open up new trade routes and economic opportunities, including increasing access to natural resources, such as rare earth minerals.

A climate of insecurity. Climate change and organized crime in cities, Antônio Sampaio, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

The author examines the intersection of climate change and organized crime in cities. The relationship between these issues is a critical area for policy and programming in governments and multilateral organizations. There is already significant evidence of the central role that cities play as destinations for climate-affected migrants fleeing both rapid- and slow-onset disruptions to their rural livelihoods or moving within cities affected by sea level rises, increased flooding or heat islands. Urbanization is not necessarily a negative or crime-inducing trend, but the rapid movement of people to areas unprepared to cope with service provision and law enforcement demands, coupled with increased pressures on resources such as water and land, can provide opportunities for criminal groups to profit through exploitative, predatory and violent practices. Three such areas require policy and expert attention: human trafficking and modern slavery affecting rural-to-urban migrants; organized crime involvement in water provision in cities; and corruption and the operation of mafia-style groups in urban land and housing.

When Home Becomes Uninhabitable. Planned Relocations as a Global Challenge in the Era of Climate Change, Nadine Knapp, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

With climate change advancing, the planned relocation of entire communities from risk areas is becoming unavoidable. It is already a reality worldwide and will become increasingly necessary in the future as a measure of climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Relocation can save lives and reduce the risk of displacement. Nevertheless, this measure is considered a “last resort” because it is expensive, deeply affects livelihoods, social networks and cultural identities, and carries new risks. To be effective, it must be participatory, human rights-based, and accompanied by development-oriented measures that strengthen the well-being and resilience of those affected and reduce structural inequalities. Many places lack the political will, concrete strategies and resources for this – especially in low-income countries with already limited adaptation capacities. These countries are therefore heavily dependent on international support, which has mostly been fragmented, ad hoc and uncoordinated.

Independent Assessment. 2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, Linden-Fraser et al., Canadian Climate Institute

The authors assess the federal government’s 2025 report on progress toward Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction target. They conclude that the federal report paints a credible picture of Canada’s progress, but does not offer an adequate policy response to the growing gap between the country’s emissions and its climate targets. Canada is not on track to achieve any of its climate goals. While the country has some powerful policies to reduce its emissions and make the economy more competitive, in recent years federal and provincial governments have removed or weakened more climate policies than they have strengthened. As a result, the country is likely to fall even further behind its targets than it was just two years ago, when the last progress report was published. In its December 2025 progress report, the Government of Canada identified priority measures that could significantly reduce emissions in the years ahead, even if they do not put Canada on track to achieve the 2030 target. Yet the authors' analysis shows that some of these measures, which are largely focused on industrial emissions, will need strengthening to fulfill their potential. The analysis also indicates that additional policies are likely needed to drive reductions in other parts of the economy. Canada has made progress, but reaching the country’s climate goals will require more effort from all orders of government.

2025 Alaska Annual Climate Report, Alaska Climate Research Center

2025 was among the warmest years going back to 1925 in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. At an average of 29.6 degrees Fahrenheit, 2025 was the warmest year since 2019. Compared with the 1991-2020 normal, Alaska overall was 1.5 degrees warmer in 2025. Above-average temperatures contributed to reduced spring snowpack, early snowmelt and enhanced wildfire potential, particularly in interior Alaska. By region, all but southeast Alaska were warmer than normal. Southeast had a near-average annual temperature, whereas the Interior and North Slope had the largest annual deviations from normal. The increase in Alaska’s annual temperature is in line with the global increase. Although the annual average temperature increased statewide, Alaska did experience some deep cold. A weather pattern flooded Alaska with cold Arctic air for several weeks late in the year.

Climate Disruption, Energy Affordability, and Greenhouse-Gas Accounting in New York, Robert Howarth, NA

New York is far from being a climate leader, with a little less than one third of its' electricity from renewable sources. Eighteen states are doing better, with renewables producing more than half the power in 12, including Vermont, Maine, and California. Globally, 17 countries produce more of their electricity from renewables than does NY, including Germany, the UK, Australia, and China. The transition away from fossil fuels WILL happen, across the planet and in New York, driven by economics. The question is only how quickly will this occur? And how well managed will the transition be? Without a plan for the downsizing of the gas system, many New Yorkers will be stuck still using gas, and paying for a system supported by an-ever fewer number of customers. Those least able to afford energy costs will be the hardest hit by the resulting inflation in gas costs. The best path forward is to embrace the renewable transition, including 21st Century grid management and beneficial electrification of heating and transportation. New York still has an opportunity to show leadership, and to do so could provide large economic benefits to the State in the future.

Data Centers and Generation Capacity over the Next Decade. Potential Benefits of Flexibility, Martin Ross and Jackson Ewing, Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University

Flexible demand response offers the potential to significantly reduce the amount of new capacity needed to meet rapidly growing electricity demand from data centers over the next 5 to 10 years. Without flexibility, the additional electricity may largely be provided by new gas units; with flexibility, the capacity mix shifts more toward renewables. Load flexibility can feasibly reduce system costs by tens of billions of dollars over the next decade and lower electricity prices for both data centers and retail customers when compared to a situation where data centers do not engage in much demand response. Potential benefits can be realized even with limited temporal flexibility. Specific findings in this report’s modeling should be viewed as illustrative of broad trends and as a call for more information and analysis.

Strengthening Resilience to Climate Change. Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework, European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change

Europe faces increasingly severe climate impacts, including rising loss of life, economic damages and ecosystem harm. While deep and sustained emission reductions – alongside the scaling-up of carbon removals – remain indispensable to limit future warming, adaptation must now be strengthened to prepare for unavoidable temperature increases and safeguard Europe’s strategic priorities. The authors make five recommendations to move from fragmented and largely reactive adaptation efforts towards an effective, fair and transformational adaptation policy framework. These recommendations aim to inform the forthcoming European integrated framework for climate resilience and other ongoing EU initiatives.

Scaling adaptation finance in Southeast Asia, Shu Xuan Tan and Ramnath Iyer, The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Asia remains disproportionately vulnerable to climate shocks, with direct economic losses averaging USD75.7 billion annually between 2000 and 2023. Yet adaptation finance lags. Global flows in 2023 were only USD65 billion, while just 12% of Southeast Asia’s USD27.8 billion climate finance in 2018–2019 supported adaptation. Adaptation should be systematically integrated into national planning and budgeting alongside strengthened project preparation and enhanced local implementation capacity. Embedding adaptation into taxonomies with clear guidelines and incorporating the full economic benefits would reinforce the financial case for investments in resilience. Multiple structural barriers constrain the scaling of adaptation finance, including limited recognition of adaptation benefits, unclear revenue streams, and small and fragmented projects. In Southeast Asia, these challenges are exacerbated by fiscal pressures, weak planning, heavy reliance on international financing, and varied institutional capacity. Adaptation should be systematically integrated into national planning and budgeting alongside strengthened project preparation and enhanced local implementation capacity. Embedding adaptation into taxonomies with clear guidelines and incorporating the full economic benefits would reinforce the financial case for investments in resilience. Amid uncertainty in international development finance, mobilizing domestic capital through tailored financial instruments, better capital market access, and innovative tools is essential for Southeast Asia to meet the adaptation challenge.

Western Water Assessment, Arens et al., Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder

The authors summarize significant hazards that occurred in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming during 2025 and the impacts those hazards caused. Drought, wildfire, flooding, severe storms, and high wind hazards all caused damages or impacts to communities during 2025. Rather than providing an exhaustive list of hazards that occurred in the region in 2025, the authors have assembled a curated list of hazards that were deemed to be significant because they damaged infrastructure, led to a loss of life, caused significant economic loss, affected a significant portion of the region, or were exceptional in some manner. Other general criteria for event inclusion in the report include local all-time weather records that contributed to a hazard, the five largest wildfires in each state, tornado and hail events that caused damage, and wind events that caused societal or economic disruption. Finally, certain hazards were summarized on an annual basis without a discussion of specific events.

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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 19 February, 2026


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