Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2026
Posted on 12 February 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Shifting baselines alter trends and emergence of climate extremes across Africa, Taguela & Akinsanola, Atmospheric Research
World Meteorological Organization baselines used to identify climate extremes are routinely updated to reflect recent climate conditions. Yet the implications of these updates for the characterization, trends, and detectability of climate extremes remain poorly understood, particularly in data-sparse and highly vulnerable regions such as Africa. Here, we quantify how updating the reference period from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020 systematically alters the characterization of temperature and precipitation extremes across the continent. Using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets (BEST, ERA5, MERRA-2, CHIRPS), we assess the sensitivity of percentile-based thresholds, long-term trends, and the Time of Emergence (ToE) to changes in the reference period. ToE is employed here as a diagnostic of detectability rather than a definitive marker of anthropogenic signal onset. Our results show that the updated baseline leads to higher temperature thresholds, resulting in a reduced frequency and slower trends for warm extremes (TX90p, TN90p), and a concurrent increase in cold extremes (TX10p, TN10p). Precipitation extremes exhibit more heterogeneous and dataset-dependent responses: trends in extreme precipitation totals (R95pTOT, R99pTOT) generally weaken, whereas intensity-based metrics (R95pINT, R99pINT) often strengthen, particularly in MERRA-2. Moreover, the choice of baseline strongly influences the estimated ToE. Warm extremes emerge 2–8 years later under the newer baseline, while cold extremes emerge earlier (by up to 15 years) due to enhanced signal-to-noise ratios. For precipitation, ToE responses vary widely across datasets and regions. In CHIRPS, the ToE of intense rainfall events is delayed, whereas in MERRA-2 it advances by over 2 decades in some regions. These results indicate that ToE estimates derived from recent decades are highly sensitive to baseline selection. By explicitly isolating the effect of baseline choice, this study provides a critical framework for interpreting extremes, reconciling dataset discrepancies, and improving the robustness of climate monitoring and risk communication across Africa.
[The same innocently mindless yet deceptive baseline updates pertain in other domains.]
Enhanced weather persistence due to amplified Arctic warming, Graversen et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Changing weather is an aspect of global warming potentially constituting a major challenge for humanity in the coming decades. Some climate models indicate that, due to global warming, future weather will become more persistent, with surface-air temperature anomalies lasting longer. However, to date, an observed change in weather persistence has not been robustly confirmed. Here we show that weather persistence in terms of temperature anomalies, across all weather types and seasons, has increased during recent decades in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. This persistence increase is linked to Arctic temperature amplification – the Arctic warming faster than the global average – and hence global warming. Persistent weather may lead to extreme weather, and for many plants such as crops, weather persistence can be devastating, as these plants often depend on weather variations. Hence, our results call for further investigation of weather-persistence impact on extreme weather, biodiversity, and the global food supply.
Northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite record, Feng et al., Biogeosciences
The boreal forest has experienced the fastest warming of any forested biome in recent decades. While vegetation–climate models predict a northward migration of boreal tree cover, the long-term studies required to test the hypothesis have been confined to regional analyses, general indices of vegetation productivity, and data calibrated to other ecoregions. Here we report a comprehensive test of the magnitude, direction, and significance of changes in the distribution of the boreal forest based on the longest and highest-resolution time-series of calibrated satellite maps of tree cover to date. From 1985 to 2020, boreal tree cover expanded by 0.844 million km2, a 12 % relative increase since 1985, and shifted northward by 0.29° mean and 0.43° median latitude. Gains were concentrated between 64–68° N and exceeded losses at southern margins, despite stable disturbance rates across most latitudes. Forest age distributions reveal that young stands (up to 36 years) now comprise 15.4 % of forest area and hold 1.1–5.9 Pg of aboveground biomass carbon, with the potential to sequester an additional 2.3–3.8 Pg C if allowed to mature. These findings confirm the northward advance of the boreal forest and implicate the future importance of the region's greening to the global carbon budget.
Securing the past for the future – why climate proxy archives should be protected, Bebchuk & Büntgen, Boreas
Glaciers, corals, speleothems, peatlands, trees and other natural proxy archives are essential for global climate change research, but their scarcity and fragility are not equally recognised. Here, we introduce a rapidly disappearing source of palaeoclimatic, environmental and archaeological evidence from some 5000 years ago in the Fenland of eastern England to argue for the protection of natural proxy archives. We describe the region's exceptional, yet neglected subfossil wood sources, discuss its multifaceted value for scholarship and society, and outline a prototype for sustainable proxy preservation. Finally, we emphasise the urgency and complexity of conservation strategies that must balance academic, public and economic interests across different spatiotemporal scales.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Poll Shows GOP Voters Support Solar Energy, American-Made Solar, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, First Solar
A national poll by the authors found widespread support for solar energy among Republicans, Republican-leaning Independents, and voters who supported President Donald J. Trump. The poll of 800 GOP+ voters found that they are in favor of the use of utility-scale solar by a more than 20-point margin, with 51% in favor; if the panels used for solar energy are American made with no ties to China, support for solar energy soars higher. Those in favor jump to 70%, while only 19% are opposed; 68% agree that the United States needs all forms of electricity generation, including utility solar, to be built for lowering electricity costs, compared to 22% who disagreed; 79% agree that the government should allow all forms of electricity generation, including utility-scale solar, to compete on their own merits and without political interference, versus 11% who disagreed; a clear majority (52%) of GOP+ voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate if they support an all-of-the-above energy agenda, including the use of solar; and 51% are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported an American company building a solar panel manufacturing plant in the US.
Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe, Tatiana Mindeková and Gianluca Geneletti, Ember
Advances in drilling and reservoir engineering are unlocking geothermal electricity across much wider parts of Europe, at a time when the power system needs firm, low-carbon supply and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Once limited to a few favorable locations, geothermal is now positioned to scale. Around 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the European Union could be developed at costs below 100 €/MWh today, comparable to coal and gas electricity. The largest potential is concentrated in Hungary, followed by Poland, Germany and France. While representing only a fraction of Europe’s total geothermal potential, the identified EU-level deployment could deliver around 301 TWh of electricity per year, reflecting geothermal’s high capacity factor. This is equivalent to about 42% of coal- and gas-fired generation in the EU in 2025.
178 articles in 67 journals by 1224 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Amplifying Variability of the Southern Annular Mode in the Past and Future, Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119214
An Analytical Model of the Lifecycle of Tropical Anvil Cloud Radiative Effects, Lutsko et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.175492939.96377329/v1
Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments, Screen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z
Enhanced Adiabatic Heating Drives Faster Warming of Early Summer Hot Extremes in North China, Fang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120396
Evolution of Temperature Extremes During the Holocene: From the Modeling Perspective, Dou & Shi, Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.175329652.23512823/v1
Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007162
What Factors Explain the Current Arctic Albedo and Its Future Change?, Kim & Taylor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044070
Observations of climate change, effects
A Climatology of Heatwaves Over Greece for the Period 1960–2022, Ioannidis et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70204
Amplifying Variability of the Southern Annular Mode in the Past and Future, Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119214
Climate change and fires drive mire development in central Siberian permafrost areas over the past century, Babeshko et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836251407585
Climate change has increased global evaporative demand except in South Asia, Karimzadeh et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02959-x
Enhanced weather persistence due to amplified Arctic warming, Graversen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03050-1
Increased contributions of climate-driven wildfires to nitrogen deposition in the United States, Campbell et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6673143/v1
Long-term spatiotemporal analysis of variation in soil moisture over Iran, Darand & Tashan, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106727
Northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite record, Feng et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1089-2026
Record-Breaking Summertime Terrestrial and Marine Heat Waves in Southeast Asia Driven by Internal Variability during 2020–22, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0202.1
Resolving the changing pace of Arctic rivers, Geyman & Lamb, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02512-w
Shifting cyclone travel speed and its impact on global mangrove ecosystems, Mo et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx6799
Stratopause trends observed by satellite limb instruments, Dubé et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-2161-2026
Strongly Heterogeneous Surface-Water Warming Trends in High Mountain Asia, Smith & Bookhagen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119418
“Vulnerabilities and compound risks of escalating climate disasters in the Brazilian Amazon”, Pinho et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-66603-0
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A database of databases for Common Era paleoclimate applications, Evans et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-1185-2026
Exploring Clear-Sky Longwave Radiative Closure in the Arctic: A Downwelling Case Study, Mosselmans et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.70000
Learning From Natural Experiments to Accelerate Demographic Research on Climate-Related Threats to Human Populations, Fussell et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70031
Sea Surface Temperature and Directional Wave Spectra During the 2023 Marine Heatwave in the North Atlantic, Peláez-Zapata et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-06268-y
Securing the past for the future – why climate proxy archives should be protected, Bebchuk & Büntgen, Boreas Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.70039
Shifting baselines alter trends and emergence of climate extremes across Africa, Taguela & Akinsanola, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108839
Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems, Kooloth et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03165-5
Where to place? Strategic siting of urban climate monitoring stations using Local Climate Zones and city-scale PALM modeling, Schneider et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102782
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
ENSO's Impacts on Southeastern Australia's Future Rainfall Risk, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl118673
Future Intensification of Compound Heatwaves and Socioeconomic Exposure in Africa, Bobde et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007022
Increased Streamflow Intermittence in Europe Due To Climate Change Projected by Combining Global Hydrological Modeling and Machine Learning, Abbasi et al., 10.22541/essoar.173557434.40176318/v1
Mesoscale Convective Systems over South America: Representation in Kilometer-Scale Met Office Unified Model Climate Simulations, Gilmour et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0754.1
More Frequent and Intense Tropical Cyclone-Heat Wave Compound Extremes Over the Coastal Regions of China in a Warmer Climate, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044509
Multiple Fire Index Examination of Future Climate Change Affecting Wildfire Seasonality and Extremes in the Contiguous United States, Kessenich et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0230.1
Spatiotemporal prioritization of soil erosion risk using the RUSLE model and CMIP6 projections under future climate scenarios in a Mediterranean watershed, ?pek & Kahya, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1760569
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Climate Models Tend to Underestimate Scaling of UK Mean Winter Precipitation With Temperature, Carruthers et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl118201
High-resolution forecasting of soil thermal regimes using different deep learning frameworks under climate change, Saeidinia et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7642696/v1
Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain Teleconnection Affecting the East Asian Heat Waves, Kim et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100867
Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska, Huang et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-1193-2026
Significance of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies to Arctic sea ice variability revealed by deep learning, Li et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2
Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models, & , Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/792982
The ACCESS-AM2 climate model underestimates aerosol concentration in the Southern Ocean; improving aerosol representation could be problematic for the global energy balance, Fiddes et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-25-16451-2025
The representation of climate impacts in the FRIDAv2.1 Integrated Assessment Model, Wells et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2756
Understanding CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projected Pacific Warming Pattern Variability, McGregor et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118815
Unveiling the dominant control of the systematic cooling bias in CMIP6 models: quantification and corrective strategies, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-2175-2026
What Factors Explain the Current Arctic Albedo and Its Future Change?, Kim & Taylor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044070
Cryosphere & climate change
Circulation and ocean–ice shelf interaction beneath the Denman and Shackleton Ice Shelves, Rintoul et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx1024
Evaluating the effectiveness of artificial covering in reducing glacier melt, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.011
Glacier surging and surge-related hazards in a changing climate, et al., pmh:oai:durham-repository.worktribe.com:4929395
Melting glaciers as symbols of tourism paradoxes, Salim et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02544-2
Melting ice and transforming beliefs, Allison et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02551-3
Negligible global but substantial regional effect of vegetation greening on the 21st century permafrost, Ran et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.012
Northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite record, Feng et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1089-2026
Recent and projected changes in rain-on-snow event characteristics across Svalbard, Vickers et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-6907-2025
Record-breaking Greenland ice sheet melt events under recent and future climate, Bonsoms et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69543-5
Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene, Patterson et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y
Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model, Andernach et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-4736
The impact of 75?years of climate change on Mediterranean glacier mass balance, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105370
Sea level & climate change
Estimates of Future Sea Levels Under Sea-Level Rise: A Novel Hybrid Block Bootstrapping Approach and Australian Case Study, Hague et al., 10.22541/essoar.174835238.88076315/v3
Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0, Ramme et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1875
Observation-based quantification of physical processes that impact sea level, Groeskamp, Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-501-2026
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
An unpredictable body size response to the Permo-Triassic climate crisis, , Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18380698
Ocean heat forced West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum, Mawbey et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68949-5
Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene, Patterson et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Applying invasion biology frameworks to predict the impacts of range-expanding predators, Beshai et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70315
Blue carbon ecosystems and coral reefs as coupled nature-based climate solutions, Fakhraee, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01768-0
Climate-driven reproductive decline in Southern right whales, Charlton et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-36897-1
Conserving key coastal areas for mangrove expansion and eco-tourism secures ecosystem services under sea-level rise, Stamoulis et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-025-00170-1
Contrasting drought responses in two grassland plant–microbe systems under climate change, Yang et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70251
Coral reefs in the Mahafaly Seascape (SW Madagascar) as potential climate refugia following the 2024 mass bleaching event, Randrianarivo et al., PeerJ Open Access pdf 10.7717/peerj.20319
Critical snowpack thresholds and escalating risks for extreme decreases in vegetation productivity across Northern Hemisphere ecosystems, et al., Open Access pmh:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/394060
Ecological Niche Modeling Reveals Historical Population Dynamics and Future Climate Response of the Carnivorous Plant Nepenthes mirabilis in Southeast Asia, Huang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72707
Future diversity and lifespan of metazoans under global warming and oxygen depletion, Kaiho, Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1853
Genomics of rafting crustaceans reveals adaptation to climate change in tropical oceans,Liu et al., Nature Communications , Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.29614727
Heat wave impacts on tree growth and recovery in temperate forests depend on leaf phenology, Bonfanti et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111020
Impact of Climate Change on the Multiple Facets of Forest Bird Diversity in a Biodiversity Hotspot Within the Atlantic Forest, Mota et al., Diversity and Distributions, Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7614515.v1
Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitat for Invasive Coreopsis Species in China, Jia et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73073
Mitigating and adapting to climate change: the role of nature-based solutions in sustaining vegetation health in the Isiukhu River Basin, Tela et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1721489
Mountains magnify mechanisms in climate change biology, de la Fuente et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02549-x
Oaks and Climate Change: Contrasting Range Responses of Mediterranean and Temperate Quercus Species in the Western Palearctic, Ülker & Tav?ano?lu, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73055
Over a century of global decline in the growth performance of marine fishes, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69416-x
Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Future Distributions of Ectomycorrhizal Fungi, Qi et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72743
Severe and widespread coral reef damage during the 2014-2017 Global Coral Bleaching Event, Eakin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67506-w
Significant Increase in Summer Vegetation Growth (NDVI) in Eastern Siberia in the Mid-1990s: Combined Effects of Summer North Atlantic SST and May Land–Atmosphere Interaction, Tian et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0535.1
Stronger Sensitivity of Plant Photosynthesis to Rising CO2 in High Elevation Ecosystems, , 10.1111/ele.70328/v1/review3
The Evolution of Southern Ocean Net Primary Production in a Changing Climate: Challenges and Opportunities, Tagliabue et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70653
Tree Regeneration After Unprecedented Forest Disturbances in Central Europe Is Robust but Maladapted to Future Climate Change, et al., Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18449661
Warmer climate disrupts the trade-off between post-fire loss and recovery of grassland GPP, Cui et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105363
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
An anthropogenically induced gradient in net carbon exchange of a temperate mangrove forest in South Australia, Yang et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1720464
Discrepancies in national inventories reveal a large emissions gap in the wastewater sector, , Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17715043
Dissolved Organic Matter Composition in the Laurentian Great Lakes Ice and Its Contribution to Spring Melt, Arsenault et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009367
Elucidating the Role of Marine Benthic Carbon in a Changing World, Schultz et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008643
Empirical Parameterization of Organic Matter Reactivity in Subsea Permafrost and Implications for Greenhouse Gas Fluxes From a Warming Arctic Shelf, Arndt et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008712
High-efficiency methane consumption by atmospheric methanotrophs in subsurface karst caves: The irrefutable methane sink, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady5942
How can we trust TROPOMI based methane emissions estimation: calculating emissions over unidentified source regions, Zheng et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1446
Impact of Land Use Change and Drought on the Net Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane From Tropical Peatlands in Southeast Asia, Hirano et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001861
Inhibition of Arctic Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Export by the Retention Capacity of Thawing Permafrost, He et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120418
Mature riparian alder forest acts as a strong and consistent carbon sink, Krasnova et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-7089-2025
Patterns and drivers of African carbon recovery after disturbance, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111061
Reducing the Discrepancy in Quantifying the Temperature Dependence of Global Wetland Methane Emission, Hu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70748
Revegetation induces asynchronous changes of deep soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in the Loess Plateau of China, Wang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1754187
Seasonal Controls of Biogenic Uptake and Anthropogenic Emissions on Carbon Dynamics in a Post-Industrial Shrinking City, Hwang & Papuga, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg008867
Standardising research on marine biological carbon pathways required to estimate sequestration at Polar and sub-Polar latitudes, Morley et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105372
Substantial contribution of trees outside forests to above-ground carbon across China, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03150-y
Super-sniffer aeroplane finds oil fields’ hidden emissions, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00335-z
The impact of warming on peak-season ecosystem carbon uptake is influenced by dominant species in warmer sites, Brinkhoff et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-245
The ocean’s biological carbon pump under pressure, Middelburg, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef3182
Unlocking the Impact of Temperature and Salinity on Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Estuarine Salt Marsh Soils, Sang et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006912
What is causing the methane surge?, Nisbet & Manning, Science 10.1126/science.aee6226
Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s, Ciais et al., Science 10.1126/science.adx8262
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Afforestation-Related Fertilisation Quickly Turns Barren Cutaway Peatland Into a Carbon Dioxide Sink, Buzacott et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70644
Careful land allocation for carbon dioxide removal is critical for safeguarding biodiversity, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02567-3
Clarifying what is meant by greenhouse gas ‘removals’ and categorising types of ‘removal-related activities’, Brander et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2625956
Decarbonization
A perspective on carbon footprint of decentralized manufacturing of lithium-ion cells industrialization, Jayadevan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1630913
Cost competitiveness and carbon reduction of battery-electric vehicle and battery-swapping electric vehicle with incentive policy in China, Li et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101938
Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles, Mercure et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3979270/v1
Next-gen geothermal could bring clean power to much more of the planet, Battersby, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2601712123
Quantifying land-use metrics for solar photovoltaic projects in the western United States, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02862-5
Racing against the clock: Modeling the global transition to renewable energy technologies, Bessi et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104541
Study on phased strategies for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industrialization based on a tripartite evolutionary game, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1731253
Timely deployment of best-in-class technologies to enable development and decarbonise construction, Dunant et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-67489-8
Geoengineering climate
Injection near the stratopause mitigates the stratospheric side effects of sulfur-based climate intervention, Yu et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-25-18449-2025
Climate change communications & cognition
(Not) all in this together? Viewing climate change as a question of (in)justice rather than common fate increases collective action, Hartwich et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102944
A call for robust evaluations of the impacts of serious games for climate change mitigation: The Climate Fresk as a global case study, Hognon et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102942
Beyond ownership structures: Oil company climate discourses in authoritarian Russia and Kazakhstan, Martus et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104582
Can neighbourhood interventions strengthen collective climate action?, Klöckner et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5741b
Differences within global movements: insights from FFF climate protests in Western and Eastern Europe, Buzogány et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2623726
From anxiety to hope: Do climate change-related emotions influence actual environmental behaviour?, Schwarz et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102939
When climate action meets low efficacy: Rethinking the mental health consequences of pro-environmental engagement, Heriansyah, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102951
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies’ adoption among maize farming households: evidence from Malawi, Nkhoma et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1743868
Exploring the influence of cognitive differences on farmers’ participation in forestry carbon sequestration projects: evidence from China, Zhu et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1746843
Future viability of European vineyards using bioclimatic climate analogues, Allaman et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5344049
Net ecosystem carbon balance and greenhouse gas budget of a canola-wheat cropping system in the northern prairies, Ferland et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111044
Promote or inhibit: how climate policy uncertainty may shape extreme weather’s impact on grain production, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2026.1753076
Study on the Suitable Area of Ratoon Rice in China Under Climate Change, Luo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72724
Synergies in environmental and agricultural water availability under climate change, Lester et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01720-8
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Australian Rainfall Projections Associated with ENSO Diversity in a Warming Climate: Insights from CMIP6 Large Ensembles, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0218.1
Changes in the Frequency of Flood Events Across the United States Detectable by the Middle of This Century, Kim et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006677
ENSO's Impacts on Southeastern Australia's Future Rainfall Risk, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl118673
Global Warming Enhances Tropical Cyclone–Induced Extreme Precipitation in the Arabian Sea: Insights From Convection-Permitting Model Experiments, Pathaikara et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007294
Long-term spatiotemporal analysis of variation in soil moisture over Iran, Darand & Tashan, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106727
Multidimensional Flood Risk Analysis of High-Speed Rail Systems Under Future Climate Change, Liu et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70184
Recent and projected changes in rain-on-snow event characteristics across Svalbard, Vickers et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-6907-2025
Renewability of fossil groundwaters affected by present-day climate conditions, Ferguson et al., Nature Geoscience pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01923-4
Climate change economics
Climate Change and Economic Sustainability: Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Adjusted Net Savings in Benin's Regions, Logozo & Kougblenou Menou, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70026
Climate Shocks and the Poor: A Review of the Literature, Triyana et al., 10.1596/1813-9450-10742
Compound dry-and-hot extremes exacerbate income inequality and poverty in Europe, Schleypen et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106
How Temperature Drives Health Insurance Demand?, Chen et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70181
Increasingly frequent compound climate events worsen economic disparities in China's urban agglomerations, He et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102824
Modelling decarbonisation pathways in Europe: Balancing ambition and economic feasibility, Chyong & Schmidt, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5293284
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A multi-stakeholder assessment of the implications of non-energy policies on renewable energy development in the Philippines, Benitez & Dhakal, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101919
Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures, Pachauri et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000763
Determinants of firms’ acceptability of carbon taxation: a systematic literature review, Mwang'Onda et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2026.2627746
EU policy on forest carbon sinks revisited, Kallio & Garvik, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104332
Global governance complex for climate change: a bibliometric analysis, Li & Yaakop, Discover Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s43621-025-02089-6
Ireland's carbon emission trends and degrowth opportunities: Based on modified Tapio - LMDI model, Zhao et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114943
Mapping organized interests across arenas in Australian climate policy, Downie & Halpin, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2597645
Navigating carbon neutrality: policy pathways and consistency on industrial decarbonization in China, Zhou et al., Carbon Balance and Management Open Access 10.1186/s13021-025-00356-7
Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals in Asia requires ambitious climate targets combined with sustainability-focused measures, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02970-2
Taking climate justice to court, Schack, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2026.2627448
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A method for tracking national progress towards climate change adaptation, Brullo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100800
Climate change adaptation status of Turkish local governments: A comparative analysis, Küçük Horasan & Özerol, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102815
Enabling democratic shifts through climate adaptation: the climate adaptation democracy framework, Comelli et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2624955
Exclusionary Environmentalism: Exploring Gender and Antifeminism in Far-Right Ecologisms, Brodtmann, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2596614
Expert agreement on key elements of transformational adaptation to climate risks, Biesbroek et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02548-y
Exploring the coherence of urban heat adaptation plans, Tuomimaa et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1741647
Integrating value systems and place-based characteristics in climate risk assessments, Reveco et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1719404
Persistent vulnerability and precarious futures: the limits of adaptation in ‘climate migrant’ informal settlements of coastal Bangladesh, et al., Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31300234.v1
Resource mapping amid climate crisis for protection of hunter gatherer community livelihoods in Northern Tanzania, Bwagalilo, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1691766
Climate change impacts on human health
Assessing children’s vulnerability to climate change in Small Island Developing States – A case study from Saint Kitts and Nevis, Ashorn et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000789
Climate Change and Disparities in Extreme Heat Exposure for Socially Vulnerable Areas in the Contiguous United States, Parsons et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.174139309.92730243/v1
Early-life heat exposure increases risk of neurodevelopmental delay in preschool children, Cai et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02560-w
Expanding compound heat and ultraviolet radiation stress amplifies exposure risks for elderly populations, , Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17568494
Overlooked toll of climate change on migrant children in the Americas, Pintea et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02525-5
The True Cost of Heat: Evaluating Heat-Related Mortality Estimation Methods in Texas, Rutt & Dessler, Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.175376679.98846268/v1
Other
Experimenting for impact: Combining research with advocacy for climate stability, Suter et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000837
Mapping the epistemic geography of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (1995–2022), Bau Larsen et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104291
The influence of incidental emotion on novice Pilots’ approach Decision-Making under uncertainty in the context of climate Challenges, Wang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100754
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Can the clean-energy revolution save us from climate catastrophe?, Tollefson, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00332-2
Securing the past for the future – why climate proxy archives should be protected, Bebchuk & Büntgen, Boreas Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.70039
Support people and their livelihoods rather than fossil-fuel industries, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00382-6
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Beyond Power Demand: How AI-Driven Metals Inflation Is Testing Utility Regulation, Shi et al., Morningstar/DBRS
Accelerating demand and material cost inflation result in a widening mismatch: utilities are being asked to expand their networks faster at precisely the moment when the unit cost of doing so is structurally higher. Utilities are faced with the impact of both cyclical and structural inflation on their capital planning and requirements. Regulatory and political constraints will determine whether cost recovery occurs quickly enough and broadly enough to align with accelerating capital requirements.
Poll Shows GOP Voters Support Solar Energy, American-Made Solar, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, First Solar
A national poll by the authors found widespread support for solar energy among Republicans, Republican-leaning Independents, and voters who supported President Donald J. Trump. The poll of 800 GOP+ voters found that they are in favor of the use of utility-scale solar by a more than 20-point margin, with 51% in favor; if the panels used for solar energy are American made with no ties to China, support for solar energy soars higher. Those in favor jump to 70%, while only 19% are opposed; 68% agree that the United States needs all forms of electricity generation, including utility solar, to be built for lowering electricity costs, compared to 22% who disagreed; 79% agree that the government should allow all forms of electricity generation, including utility-scale solar, to compete on their own merits and without political interference, versus 11% who disagreed; a clear majority (52%) of GOP+ voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate if they support an all-of-the-above energy agenda, including the use of solar; and 51% are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported an American company building a solar panel manufacturing plant in the US.
New England’s Offshore Wind Solution. The Region Can Ride Through Cold-Weather Demand Surges with Local Renewable Energy, Susan Muller, Union of Concerned Scientists
Wind energy off the New England coast can powerfully reinforce the reliability of the region's electric grid, particularly during winter when the system is most vulnerable to energy shortages. Combined with the energy available from onshore wind and solar resources, an offshore wind fleet can support a shift toward local solutions for winter reliability in New England, bringing consumers much-needed relief from high seasonal electricity bills. The authors' analysis of winter 2024–2025 wind speed data shows that the energy delivered by just two offshore wind projects, totaling 1,500 megawatts (MW) of capacity, would have lowered the risk of power outages, based on a key reliability metric, by 55 percent over the course of the season. A larger fleet of 3,500 MW would have reduced the risk of outages by 75 percent. In either case, the scale of energy delivered by an offshore wind fleet would have increased the total winter energy supply from local renewable resources above the energy supply from imported liquified natural gas.
South Sudan. Country Climate and Development Report, Ling et al., World Bank Group
South Sudan has fallen into a vicious cycle of fragility, conflict, and climate vulnerability, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier, exacerbating displacement, food insecurity, social dislocation, resource conflict, and grievance. Already one of the fastest-warming countries, 80 percent of South Sudan’s population depends on climate-vulnerable livelihoods. More than half of the population is chronically food insecure, due to a combination of conflict and climate factors. The devastating floods of recent years are likely to become the new normal, and will be joined by increasing climate stress on labor productivity, agrifood systems, and human health. The authors identify priority investments to strengthen resilience in flood risk management, resilient rural livelihoods, sustainable natural resource use, and sustainable energy access. These require substantial fiscal resources, but the public finance system is under severe strain, and external support is set to decline sharply. Domestic revenue mobilization— particularly more targeted and effective use of existing government revenues and more efficient, transparent spending—is therefore essential to promote adaptation. Core governance reforms also need to support private sector development and climate action.
2025 Transmission Planning and Development Report Card, Zimmerman et al., Americans for a Clean Energy Grid
The authors provide an updated assessment of U.S. transmission planning and development across 10 regions. Overall, there was incremental improvement in transmission planning across most of the regions, driven largely by reforms to regional planning. However, many regions continue to fall well short of best practices, and progress remains uneven relative to the scale and urgency of today’s transmission needs. Accelerating electricity demand — driven by data centers, manufacturing growth, and electrification — is increasing the importance of forward-looking transmission planning, compressing planning timelines, and raising the stakes for regions that continue to rely on incremental or reactive approaches.
Clean Economy Works: December 2025 Analysis, Michael Timberlake, E2-Ecopnomy and Environment
At the end of 2025, the U.S. clean energy economy reached a clear inflection point. While companies continued to announce new investments—albeit fewer and with less capital per project that recent years—the pace and scale of cancellations, closures, and downsizes accelerated dramatically. The result was the largest annual reversal of clean energy investment since E2 began tracking in 2022. The data show not simply a slowdown, but a fundamental imbalance: for the first time, project losses far outpaced project gains, particularly in manufacturing sectors that had driven much of the post-IRA investment surge. This imbalance was felt across regions, industries, and political boundaries. For example, three dollars abandoned for every dollar announced: In 2025, clean energy cancellations and downsizes totaled $34.8 billion, nearly three times the $12.3 billion in new investment announced—producing a sharply negative return on clean energy investment activity; 38,031 manufacturing jobs eliminated: Project reversals and factory closures wiped out more clean energy jobs in 2025 than in all prior tracked years combined, resulting in a net loss of more than 15,000 jobs; $30.2 billion in manufacturing losses: Manufacturing facilities accounted for nearly all cancelled investment and job losses, underscoring the vulnerability of capital-intensive domestic clean energy supply chains.
Global wind and solar 2025: The G7 gap, Diren Kocaku?ak and Mengqi Zhang, Global Energy Monitor
The global clean power pipeline surged in 2025. Announced and in-progress wind and utility-scale solar projects expanded by 11%, increasing from 4.4 terawatts (TW) to almost 5 TW worldwide. Globally, utility-scale solar led the expansion of the pipeline. The utility-scale solar pipeline grew by 17% and passed 2.2 TW, while the wind pipeline grew by 7%. The world’s richest economies are not driving that growth. The G7 countries, despite controlling roughly half of global wealth, account for 11% of the world’s prospective wind and utility-scale solar capacity additions. The center of gravity for new clean power has shifted decisively toward emerging and developing economies. China crossed a historic threshold. Its combined operating wind, utility-scale solar, and distributed solar capacity surpassed 1.6 TW in 2025, triple the combined capacity of its closest peers, the United States and India. Distributed solar is a pillar of the clean energy transition, but it is not evenly spread. While it represents about 42% of all existing and prospective solar capacity worldwide, deployment remains heavily concentrated in a small number of countries, leaving significant room to expand.
Aspen National Water Strategy, Watson et al., Aspen Institute and the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability
Building on the insights and relationships developed through the Aspen-Nicholas Water Forum, the Aspen National Water Strategy Initiative advances a coordinated vision for U.S. water governance. Developed through 18 months of collaboration among water leaders from across sectors, regions, and backgrounds, the Aspen National Water Strategy identifies six interconnected strategies essential to securing water for America’s communities, economies, and ecosystems including elevating water security as a cornerstone of the nation’s economy; reforming water governance to establish clear structures and standards while enabling flexible, locally appropriate implementation; investing in rural water resources and services to strengthen rural communities and regional water security; equipping communities to adapt to rising water-related climate risks; modernizing water infrastructure while renewing existing assets; and accelerating the adoption of innovative water solutions at scale.
Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe, Tatiana Mindeková and Gianluca Geneletti, Ember
Advances in drilling and reservoir engineering are unlocking geothermal electricity across much wider parts of Europe, at a time when the power system needs firm, low-carbon supply and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Once limited to a few favorable locations, geothermal is now positioned to scale. Around 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity in the European Union could be developed at costs below 100 €/MWh today, comparable to coal and gas electricity. The largest potential is concentrated in Hungary, followed by Poland, Germany and France. While representing only a fraction of Europe’s total geothermal potential, the identified EU-level deployment could deliver around 301 TWh of electricity per year, reflecting geothermal’s high capacity factor. This is equivalent to about 42% of coal- and gas-fired generation in the EU in 2025.
Cost Analysis of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Stationary Power Plants, Reznicek et al., National Laboratory of the Rockies/National Renewable Energy Lab
Heavy-duty proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells could be a low-cost, low emission alternative to combustion turbines for re-electrifying hydrogen if used as part of a long duration grid energy storage systems. Many studies expect heavy duty PEM fuel cell production costs to reduce as manufacturing volumes ramp up and their expected durability of 25,000-30,000 hours aligns well with a 30-year life for hydrogen seasonal energy storage plants that would likely operate less than 10% of the year. The labor, material, and equipment costs associated with installing PEM fuel cells and their required balance of plant for stationary applications have not been thoroughly explored, however. This study performs a detailed design and cost analysis of a 100 MW stationary PEM fuel cell power plant, capturing costs such as cooling, power electronics, pipes, valves, fittings, cabling, conduit, concrete foundations, buildings, and land. It employs methods consistent with NLR's solar PV benchmarking cost analysis and annual technology baseline to derive the total installed costs of stationary PEM fuel cell plants that utilize heavy duty PEM fuel cells. The anticipated total cost of building a stationary PEM fuel cell plant with today's technology is $954/kW. This cost could reduce to $567/kW - $754/kW by 2050, depending on potential cost reductions in fuel cells, inverters, and transformers. Both the estimated current cost and potential future costs are on the lower end if not less than estimated costs associated with natural gas combustion turbines, which range from $900/kW to $1,500/kW according to the EIA. Because PEM fuel cells do not produce pollutants such as NOx and SOx and can have much higher efficiencies than combustion turbines while still maintaining adequate start-up times and dynamic capabilities, this suggests that stationary PEM fuel cells could outperform combustion turbines for hydrogen long duration grid storage applications on the grounds of capital cost, operating costs, and emissions.
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