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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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  1. One Planet Only Forever at 11:37 AM on 14 June 2024
    Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy

    Thank you for continuing to point to and share excellent examples of the increased awareness and improved understanding that needs to become the norm for the vast majority of global humanity in order for humanity to have a decent improving future.

    A focus on pursuing individual interests can lead to conflicting interests escalating into ‘uncivil conflicts’. A mechanism to limit the harm of such damaging developments, perhaps the most effective mechanism, is for all actions to be governed by the pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. There are many books and research reports supporting this understanding regarding climate science and many other important matters that ‘people can and should learn about’.

    Specifically regarding democracy, “How Democracies Die”, by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, is a robust evidence-based presentation focused on ‘norms that are essential to democracy’. The norms include:

    • accepting that all competitors for leadership are legitimate (which is only possible if all competitors have a passion for learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others, no misleaders allowed)
    • limiting the use of systemic powers like ‘legal or government’ actions (such powers only used to limit the harm done by people, especially misleaders, who have interests that conflict with learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others).

    If more powerful people respected those norms then less harm would have happened to date, the current day would be better, and it would be less challenging to end the harms being done to the future of humanity and develop lasting improvements like truly better energy production and less unnecessary energy demand.

    I have an improved understanding to offer regarding the opening statement. Instead of “...waiting for the day when renewable energy would become cheaper than fossil fuels”, people concerned about the climate change impacts of developed human activity should have been demanding that the negative impacts of fossil fuels and any of the alternatives be learned about and be neutralized (and reversed) regardless of the cost. A fundamental requirement is ensuring that people’s ‘free choices’ are harmless to Others. And more costly energy would bring about a very important correction – reduction of unnecessary energy use.

    The cheapest renewable energy will likely be the most harmful and least sustainable option. That is what the competitive marketplace (economic and political) can be expected to produce and promote if the objective is simply ‘Renewable energy that is cheaper than fossil fuels’. The marketplace can also be expected to produce efforts that ‘increase the harm done by fossil fuels to maximize the benefits obtained by people who want to benefit from fossil fuel use’. Also, even the best renewable energy production will have some negative impacts.

    The governing norm required to sustain any system, including a democracy or business organization, can be understood to be: Passionate pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. Anyone with interests that conflict with that governing norm are likely to harm the future of the system, including democracy or other systems of ‘individual freedoms’.

    Without ‘respectful tolerance of justifiable differences and leadership passion for correction of misunderstandings’ competition for perceptions of status relative to Others will likely produce conflicting interests with damaging results. Poorly governed or misled competition will degenerate into harmful escalating efforts to obtain and maintain unjustified perceptions of status.

    Competition for perceptions of status can produce very beneficial results. But it can undeniably also produce very damaging results, including the shredding of democracy.

  2. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    Since we are using cartoons to represent Koutsoyiannis et al's thought process, today's XKCD cartoon seems appropriate. (As usual with XKCD, if you follow the link to the original web page, you can hover over the cartoon to get additional insight.)

    https://xkcd.com/2945/

    XKCD broken model

  3. CO2 effect is saturated

    Jim: I have not had time to read that paper in detail yet, but I can provide a bit of background.

    From the paper, it mentions

    AIRS is a grating spectrometer that measures spectral radiances in 2378 channels across the 2,169–2,673 cm−1, 1,217–1,613 cm−1, and 649–1,136 cm−1 bands and has calibration and stability performance since 2002.

    In order to get spectral data from a light source, the light source needs to be split into different wavelengths.

    • One way to do this is with optical filters - but you need one filter for each wavelength, so it is hard to get a lot of wavelengths this way.
    • The second method is to spread the light out by wavelength, like a prism does. You don't use prisms in such instruments though - you use either a narrow slit, or a diffraction grating. AIRS seems to use the latter.
    • Once the light is spread out, you need to measure it. One way is to have a single sensor move along the spectrum, but this is slow and mechanically complex (but highly accurate). The modern way is to put a diode array into the system, and each diode in the array falls at a different wavelength. That's what AIRS seems to use.

    The raw diode array output needs to get translated to spectral irradiance, and the spectral resolution is limited to the number of individual diodes in the array.

    The Raghuraman et al paper then increases the resolution using radiance models as an interpolation/enhancement method, and uses CERES broadband (not spectral) data to help limit the model results.

    In short, it's not a particularly simple process. Not surprising that it has taken time for someone to do it.

  4. CO2 effect is saturated

    Thanks for the heads up re Raghuraman et al. 2023 in the new "basic" section.

    Having looked at CERES data in the past I now find myself wondering why (apparently) nobody has previously thought of using AIRS data to "provide measurements of Earth's emitted thermal heat at fine-scale wavelengths".

    Am I missing something? If so, what?!

  5. Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?

    Eddie:

    Also keep in mind that the logarithmic/exponential nature of pH values means that any decrease of 0.1 in pH units means a 26% increase in acidity from the previous value - 8.2 to 8.1, 9.6 to 9.5, 10.9 to 10.8, etc. The ratio between the two numbers is always 10-0.1 = 1.26.

  6. Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?

    Both my wife and I thank you.

  7. Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?

    Eddie:

    Remember that pH is a logarithmic scale. This is explained in the links at the bottom of the post.

    To get actual concentration of H ions, you calculate 10-pH.

    • 10-8.1 = 7.943e-9
    • 10-8.2 = 6.31e-9

    Ratio between those two numbers is 1.26. So from that calculation, pH 8.1 is 26% higher H ion concentration than ph 8.2.

    If you want to calculate the other way, to see what pH is 30% higher than 8.2, we do 1.3* 6.31e-9 = 8.2e-9, and -log(8.2e-9 = 8.086.

    In round numbers, pH 8.1 is about 30% more acidic than pH 8.2. At a guess, the source of the original 30% figure is either rounding, or has slightly more precise measurements of the change in pH.

  8. Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?

    "Since the Industrial Revolution, ocean pH has declined from 8.2 to 8.1 — a 30% increase in acidity."

    I'm not quite clear on the 30% increase in acidity." I understand how acidity increases as Ph drops. I don't know what to do with the numbers 8.2 to 8.1 in the context of a point 1 change creating a 30% acidity increase.
    Where do I go astray?
    Thanks to anyone who cares to help me out on this.

  9. 1934 - hottest year on record

    One aspect of hot records versus cold is that in a warming planet we expect to see more high temperature records set than cold.

    Anecdotal information for sure,  but I saw recently that Las Vegas has not set a daily cold temperature record for 25 years. It sure has set a lot of record daily highs since then.

    Even Fox News has reported on this (first Google hit).

    https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/25-years-las-vegas-low-temperature-record

  10. 1934 - hottest year on record

    Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on June 9, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance

  11. David Kirtley at 09:41 AM on 5 June 2024
    On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    Bob, @7:

    Ha-ha, yes, good catch, re. Foghorn's quantum-state delimma (as it were) and Koutsoyiannis et al's refusal to look at the bleedingly obvious climate science found in Foghorn's Feed Box.

  12. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    RE: my comment 10:

    Now, if Koutsoyiannis et al want to claim that ENSO effects on temperature are irrelevant - i.e., that it does not matter if the temperature variation is due to ENSO, volcanoes, or fairy dust, etc. - then they can try to make that claim. But then they are breaking the chain of causality.

    Causation has to start somewhere, and their "unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause..." is basically ignoring any previous cause. By ignoring anything else, they fail to consider the possibility that both T and CO2 are responding to something else (hello, ENSO!). And, of course, they ignore the possibility of feedbacks, where two or more factors affect each other - i.e., the world is not unidirectional.

  13. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    As MAR points out in comment 9,  Koutsoyiannis et al ignore ENSO as a possible factor in their analysis.

    Is ENSO a factor in global temperatures? Yes. Tamino has had several blog posts on the matter, where he has covered the results of a paper he co-authored in 2011, with updates. The original paper (Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011) looked at the evolution of temperatures from 1979-2010, and determined that much of the short-term variation is explained by ENSO and volcanic activity. After accounting for ENSO and volcanic activity, a much clearer warming signal is evident.

    Tamino recently updated this analysis, with modified methodology and covering a longer time span (1950-2023). This method turns this:

    Tamino raw

    to this:

    Tamino adjusted

     

    Now remember: Koutsoyiannis et al used differenced/detrended data in their analysis, which means that they have removed any long-term trend and fitted their analysis to short-term variations. If you remove the short-term effects due to ENSO, Koutsoyiannis et al will have a temperature signal with a lot less variation. That means they have a lot less ΔT to "cause" CO2 changes. Their physics-free "causality" gets stretched even thinner (if this is possible with an analysis that is already broken).

  14. Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?

    Michael Sweet @363 :

    Thank you for the IEEFA report.  Incidentally I had just read a December 2023 interview of Mycle Schneider by Diaz-Maurin (editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ).

    Too long to give a thorough summary ~ but in short, the Small Modular Reactor programs are "going nowhere fast".  Costings now worse than the conventional large fission reactors (which are also in deep trouble in cost & time).  Schneider touched on SMR security problems as well.

  15. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    The most powerful message of the paper Koutsoyiannis et al (2023) 'On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Links in Earth’s Atmosphere' is their "Graphical Abstract" which is reproduced in the OP above as Figure 1.

    They are not the first to try and use these data to suggest increasing CO2 is not warming the planet. And likely there will be other fools who attempt the same in the future.

    So what does their "Graphical Abstract" show?

    The graphic below is Fig2 of Humlum et al (2012) which insists this same data shows that CO2 lags temperature and not the other way round.

    Humlum et al 2012 fig 2

    The data that is missing is the ENSO cycle which precedes both  the T and the CO2 wobbles and thus drives global temperature wobbles and, by shifting rainfall patterns, drives CO2 wobbles. To suggest (as Koutsoyiannis et al do) that such "analyses suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect" is simply childish nonsense.

  16. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    David @ 6:

    Yes, the point you make about how glacial cycles show CO2 and T variations that would imply a huge temperature increase is needed over the last century to cause the observed rise in CO2 is discussed in the PubPeer comments on the earlier paper.

    The earlier paper used the UAH temperature record that only covers very recent times (since 1979). The new paper also looks at temperature data starting in 1948 - but temperature data from re-analysis, not actual observations.

    If their statistical technique is robust, then they should come up with the same result from the glacial/interglacial cycles of temperature and CO2...

    ...but their methodology is devoted to looking at the short-term variation, not the long-term trends. Our knowledge from the glacial/interglacial periods has much lower time resolution. Different time scale, difference processes, different feedbacks, different causes. That does not fit with their narrative of "The One True Cause".

    A purely statistical method like Koutsoyiannis et al cannot identify "cause" when the system has multiple paths and feedbacks operating at different time scales.

  17. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    David @ 5:

    Yes, that wording of "commonly assumed" in the Koutsoyiannis paper is rather telling. Either they are unaware of the carbon cycle and climate science work that has gone into the understanding of the relationship between CO2 and global temperature, or they are using a rhetorical trick to wave away an entire scientific discipline as if it is an "assumption".

    That Looney Tunes clip has one more snippet that I think applies to Koutsoyiannis et al: at the end Foghorn Leghorn says "No, I'd better not look". I think that Koutsoyiannis et al did that with respect to learning about the science of the carbon cycle: "No, I'd better not look".

  18. michael sweet at 08:11 AM on 3 June 2024
    Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?

    An organization called Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) just released a report on small modular reactors.  The title of the report is "Small Modular Reactors: Still too expensive, too slow and too risky".   It says that small nuclear reactors will not be able to contribute significantly to the energy transition and the money spent on them is being wasted.

    Key Findings;

    1) Small modular reactors still look to be too expensive, too slow to build, and too risky to play a significant role in transitioning from fossil fuels in the coming 10-15 years.

    2) Investment in SMRs will take resources away from carbon-free and lower-cost renewable technologies that are available today and can push the transition from fossil fuels forward significantly in the coming 10 years.

    3) Experience with operating and proposed SMRs shows that the reactors will continue to cost far more and take much longer to build than promised by proponents.

    4) Regulators, utilities, investors and government officials should embrace the reality that renewables, not SMRs, are the near-term solution to the energy transition.

    Follow the link above to read the full report. The IEEFA apparently is a left leaning think tank that opposes nuclear power.

  19. David Kirtley at 06:25 AM on 3 June 2024
    On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    An easy way to test whether today's atmospheric temp inc. are causing today's rise in CO2 levels might be to look at this chart of data from the EPICA ice core:

    EPICA Dome C

    From this SkS rebuttal: https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature-intermediate.htm

    Yes indeed, some of the CO2 inc during glacial-interglacial cycles was caused by Temp inc first. Koutsoyiannis et al. would have us believe that the current huge increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is also caused by Temp inc first.

    Where is this huge increase in Temp?

  20. David Kirtley at 05:52 AM on 3 June 2024
    On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    From the Koutsoyiannis et al. abstract: "According to the commonly assumed causality link, increased [CO2] causes a rise in T. However, recent developments cast doubts on this assumption by showing that this relationship is of the hen-or-egg type, or even unidirectional but opposite in direction to the commonly assumed one."

    "Commonly assumed"? I don't think so. The link between CO2 and Temp is shown by a wealth of actual physical evidence. There is no question that Temp increases can cause CO2 increases and that the opposite ("commonly assumed causality link") relationship is also true: CO2 inc. can cause Temp inc. Koutsoyiannis et al. seem to be saying that their study proves that the causality relationship can only be "unidirectional": Temp inc cause CO2 increases.

    It is all very strange. They seem to be trying to answer questions about climate science which have very solid answers already from different lines of evidence. Is their statistical magic a new line of evidence which overturns the vast majority of climate science? I doubt it.

    But, since we're on the subject of hens and eggs, this paper reminds me of an old Looney Tunes cartoon starring the rooster Foghorn Leghorn and the highly intelligent little chick, Egghead, Jr. Foghorn is babysitting little Egghead and they decide to play hide and seek. Egghead starts counting while Foghorn hides in a large "Feed Box". When Egghead finishes counting he gets out a slide rule and a pencil and paper and runs some calculations to try to locate Foghorn. He grabs a shovel and starts digging a hole nowhere near the Feed Box. With his last final tug on the shovel handle Foghorn pops out of the hole, flabbergasted.

    Foghorn Leghorn-Hide and Seek: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMyD3TSXyUc

    I think Koutsoyiannis et al. think they are like Egghead, Jr and have come up with some magical statistics which override our physical reality. Maybe their calculations would work in Looney Tunes land. But they don't work in the climate system we are familiar with.

  21. Positive feedback means runaway warming

    Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on June 2, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance

  22. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    To continue, one nice new example that appears in this blog post is the accelerator versus the brake analogy. The OP does a nice job of describing the natural carbon cycle, pointing out that the natural portions of the cycle include both emissions and removals - adding to and subtracting from atmospheric CO2 storage.

    Koutsoyiannis et al basically assume that if there are changes in atmospheric CO2, they must be linked to something that changed emissions. As the OP points out, the likelihood is that the correlation Koutsoyiannis et al see (in the short-term detrended data set they massaged) is more likely related to changes in natural removals.

    Once again, Koutsoyiannis et al do not realize the limitations of their methodology, ignore a well-known physical process in the carbon cycle (rates of natural atmospheric CO2 removal), and attribute their correlation to the wrong thing. The right thing isn't in their model (statistical method) or thought-space (mental model), so they don't see it.

    The OP's bathtub analogy is useful to see this. The diagram (figure 4) looks at the long-term rise in bathtub level (CO2 rise), but it is easy to do a thought experiment on how we could introduce short-term variability into the water level. There are three ways:

    1. Short-term variability in the natural emissions (faucet on the left).
    2. Short-term variability in the human emissions (faucet on the right).
    3. Short-term variability in the natural sinks (drain pipe on the lower right).

    The bathtub analogy is similar to the water tank analogy that is used in this SkS post on the greenhouse effect. The primary analogy in that post is a blanket, but the level of water in a water tank appears further down the page.

    In short, the Koutsoyiannis et al paper ignores known physics, fails to incorporate known physics in their methodology, and comes to incorrect conclusions because the correct conclusion involves factors that were eliminated from their analysis from the beginning.

  23. On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    Yes, this blog post does a really good job of outlining the correct scientific background on atmospheric CO2 rise, and pointing out the glaring error that Koutsoyiannis et al have made.

    The recent paper is a rehash of an earlier Koutsoyiannis paper that is allude to but not specifically linked in the OP and comments. The OP does subtly link to a rebuttal publication of that earlier work (link repeated here... You'll have to verify you're not a robot to get to the paper). As Dikran has pointed out, the authors appear to have doggedly refused to accept their error.

    Both the current Koutsoyiannis et al paper and the earlier one have threads over at PubPeer:

    ...and as Dikran mentions, this basic error is an old one, being repeated again and again in the contrarian literature on the subject. Two Skeptical Science blog posts from 11  and 12 years ago discusses this and similar errors. Plus ca change...

    The blog And Then There's Physics also posted a blog on the earlier papers.

    The importance of the differencing scheme used by Koutsoyiannis et al cannot be overstated. I hate to inject that dreaded word "Calculus" into the discussion, but if you'll bear with me for a moment I can explain. Taking differences (AKA detrending) is that dreaded Calculus process called differentiation - taking the derivative. This tells you the rate of change at any point in time - but it does not tell you how much CO2 accumulates over time. To get accumulation over time, you need to sum those changes over time - in Calculus-speak, you need to integrate.

    The catch is, as Dikran points out, that taking differences has eliminated any constant factor - in Calculus-speak, the derivative of a constant is zero. And when you turn around and do the integration to look at how CO2 accumulates over time (basically, undo the differentiation), you need to remember to add the constant back in. Koutsoyiannis et al fail to do this, and then make the erroneous conclusion that the constant is not a factor. Their method made it disappear, and they can't see it as a result. David Copperfield did not actually make that airplane disappear - he just  applied a method that hid it from the sight of the audience. (Of course, David Copperfield knows the airplane did not disappear, and is just trying to entertain the audience. In contrast, it appears that Koutsoyiannis et al are fooling themselves.)

    At least introducing Calculus to the discussion give me a chance to mention one of my two math jokes. (Yes, I know. "math joke" is an oxymoron. Don't ask me to tell you the one about Noah and the snakes.)

    Two mathematicians are in a bar, arguing about the general math knowledge of the masses. They end up deciding to settle the issue by seeing if the waitress can answer a math question. While mathematician A is in the bathroom, mathematician B corners the waitress and tells her that when his friend asks her a question, she should answer "one half X squared". A little later, when the waitress returns to the table, A asks her "what is the integral of X?". She answers as instructed, and mathematician A sheepishly pays off the bet and admits that B was right. As the waitress walks away, she is heard to mutter "pair of idiots. It's one-half X squared, plus a constant".

     

  24. Dikran Marsupial at 23:44 PM on 31 May 2024
    On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    The earlier paper by Koutsoyiannis et al.

    "Deep doubts, deep wisdom; shallow doubts, shallow wisdom" – Chinese proverb

    which seems somewhat ironic at this point.

  25. Dikran Marsupial at 23:41 PM on 31 May 2024
    On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2

    Good article! 

    Koutsoyiannis et al. have made essentially the same mathematical blunder that Murray Salby did ten years ago (and he was far from being the first), which I covered here:

    https://skepticalscience.com/salby_correlation_conundrum.html

    Correlations are insensitive to constant offsets in the two signals on which it is computed.  The differencing operator, Δ, which gives the difference between successive samples converts the long term linear trend in the signal to an additive constant.  So as soon as you use Δ on both signals, the correlation can tell you precisely nothing about the long term trends.

    When the earlier work was published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, I communicated this error to both the authors of the paper and the editor of the journal.  The response was, shall we say "underwhelming".

    The communication (June 2022) included the observation that atmospheric CO2 levels are more slowly than the rate of fossil fuel emissions, which shows that the natural environment is a net carbon sink, and therefore the rise cannot be due to a change in the carbon cycle resulting from an increase in temperature.  It is "dissapointing" that the authors have published a similar claim again  (submission recieved 17 March 2023) when they had already been made aware that their claim is directly refuted by reliable observations.

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Link activated.

  26. michael sweet at 02:45 AM on 30 May 2024
    2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21

    There was an article today in The Guardian about the health benefits from currently installed renewable energy.  The original study is here.

    Installing wind and solar from 2019 to 2022 resulted in reductions of SOand nitrogen oxides NOx in the USA.  Both these cheicals cause respiratory damage.  They found that the reduction of pollution resulted in $249 billion dollars in health and climate benefits.  I note that these benefits will continue for the foreseeable future and will be much greater than the cost of installing the renewable energy.  In addition, the renewable energy is cheaper than fossil energy.

    Jeremiah Johnson, a climate and energy professor at North Carolina State University who was not involved in the study said :

    The public “is often focused on the challenges we face” when it comes to ecological damage, he said. “But it is also important to recognize when something is working.”

    It would be interesting to see what David-acct thinks about these massive savings from installing renewable energy.

  27. Mastering FLICC - A Cranky Uncle themed quiz

    OPOF @2

    Thanks!

    felixscout @3

    Thanks for the feedback! The link is actually correct as it's the summary page for all of the cartoons regardless of language. They show up sorted alphabetically in blocks: German (DE), English (EN) and Dutch (NL), so there's unfortunately some scrolling involved.

  28. Mastering FLICC - A Cranky Uncle themed quiz

    Thank you for this.

    The one issue I discovered was, when going through the answers after submitting the quiz the link to the correct cranky uncle cartoon linked to the german version.

  29. One Planet Only Forever at 02:05 AM on 28 May 2024
    Mastering FLICC - A Cranky Uncle themed quiz

    BaerbelW,

    I think that the 'standard' response that is provided to a wrong choice was a good response. A person taking the quiz to learn would be inclined to review the FLICC information and try again.

  30. Mastering FLICC - A Cranky Uncle themed quiz

    Thanks to all who have played the quiz thus far!

    Some feedback comments mentioned that explanations are missing of why a selected answer is wrong. Unfortunately, that's a limitation of using a Google form as a quiz. It's only possible to provide one explanation for the correct and another one for all the wrong answers.

    However, all the cartoons with the respective fallacy definitions and examples are available in our graphics resource @ https://sks.to/crankycartoons. So, if you wonder why answers you gave are wrong, you can find out by scrolling down the list and selecting the "problematic" cartoon(s).

    Hope this helps!

  31. Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    Michael Sweet @ 3:

    Technically, David-acct has not actually made any argument at all in comment 1. All he did is quote some numbers. We are left to speculate as to what argument he was trying to make. I agree that he was probably trying to make an argument along the lines of "oh, my, look at how huuuugely expensive this is!!!", to which the rejoinder is "compared to what?".You have pointed him in the direction of "what?"

    Maybe his argument was intended to be "look at how cheap this will be!!!", but I somehow doubt it. If David-acct's past commenting habits are a guide, I also doubt we'll see him return to be more specific or actually make a logical argument.

    My analogy to David-acct's "argument" is to compare him to a homeowner who has been told "Your roof is leaking badly. It will cost $20,000 to replace it." The homeowner balks at the cost, and decides not to do it. Meanwhile, he's doing $60,000 of renovations to upgrade the kitchen to granite counter tops and walnut cabinets, and has spent $40,000 to create a media room on the second floor, with flat screen TV, 7-channel sound system, etc.   ...and all those renovations get destroyed a few months later when the leaking roof causes major flood damage. He expects insurance to cover the cost, but when the insurance company finds out he was told about the leaking roof earlier and chose to ignore that advice, the insurance company says "you're on your own".

  32. michael sweet at 01:12 AM on 27 May 2024
    Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    Sorry, my link in 3 is broken try

    Jacobson 2022 free

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Same link problem fixed. There seems to have been some sort of "chrome-extension" text prepended to the proper link. Probably best to pass it through a plain text editor before copying and pasting.

  33. michael sweet at 22:39 PM on 26 May 2024
    Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    Jacobson 2022 describes a completely renewable system for the USA including all transportation, all industry and all other energy used in society.

    I note that in Jacobson 2022 he models a system using renewable energy (primarily wind and solar but including hydro, geothermal and other minor sources) without any burning of anything.  Other proposed systems burn renewable sources like vegetable oil, forrestry waste and trash and are cheaper than Jacobson's system.  Jacobson argues that it is worth the extra cost to reduce pollution as much as possible.

  34. michael sweet at 22:26 PM on 26 May 2024
    Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    David-accct:

    And where you live fossil fuels are free?  You fill up your car for free?  Electricity is free?  Heating and cooling are free?   This is such a stupid argument that it is difficult to reply.

    You are like the teenager who tells his dad that a $30,000 Tesla is too expensive so he has to buy the Ferrari. (He doesn't mention that the Ferrari costs $200,000).

    Jacobson 2022 (free copy) states:

    "In the “Total USA” case, the 2050 BAU annual private energy cost is $2.5 trillion/yr, and the 2050 BAU annual social energy is $6.8 trillion/yr (Tables 4 and S20; Figs.5 and S3).   Thus, the private and social costs of WWS energy (both $933 billion/yr) are~63% and ~86% lower, respectively, than those of BAU"

    The energy costs alone of fossil fuels are 2.7 times more expensive than renewable energy (WWS in Jacobson).  Millions of people are killed every year by fossil pollution in your choice.  The social costs are about 7.3 times the cost of renewable energy. 

    Your argument about costs is simply ignorant bluster.

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Link fixed

  35. Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    ...or a little over $400 billion per year, or about $1300 per person per year.

    The US plans to spend nearly $900 billion this fiscal year on defence.

    I have to admit, David-acct, I am amazed at your ability to avoid seeing context.

  36. Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

    From the David Brown Wood MacKenzie article / link above

     

    Figure 1. US$11.8 trillion dollars in capital investment in US energy is required on a cumulative basis from 2023-2050 to reach our net zero scenario.

     

    The $11.8 Trillion dollars is approx $35,000 per person in the US or approx $72k-$75,000 per household.  

     

  37. CO2 is not the only driver of climate

    Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on May 25, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance

  38. One Planet Only Forever at 13:45 PM on 23 May 2024
    2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19

    A follow-up comment to my comment @1,

    This CBC News item: Small island states hail ocean court victory on greenhouse gases is evidence that the 'law and order' approach can work ...

    But there need to be more votes of support for helpful harm reducing law and order actions. More people need to choose to 'learn to be less harmful and more helpful to others' so that 'justified rule of law' can effectively limit the harm done by those who resist such learning.

    Competition for perceptions of status and reward can obviously powerfully compromise such helpful pursuits. These recent legal wins, like the recent increased actions to limit climate change impacts, have been diminished and delayed ... to the detriment of the future of humanity ... by the popularity and profitability of 'more freedom to believe and do whatever is desired'.

  39. One Planet Only Forever at 06:47 AM on 23 May 2024
    Climate Adam: Can we really suck up Carbon Dioxide?

    An extreme example of carbon dioxide removal greenwashing is the marketing of the glory of the Pathways Alliance plans to make Alberta oil sands production 'Net-zero by 2050' (see here for their self promotion details).

    As mentioned in Climate Adam's video, and the earlier CCS video he mentions (a link at the end of this Climate Adam video), CCS of oil sands operations will only keep part of the ghg impacts of the operations from entering the atmosphere, with risk of leaks of the stuff thought to have been captured and stored. In particular, any methane emissions are not captured for storage.

    So, to be 'net-zero' the Pathways Alliance will have to divert (consume) some of the 'real carbon removal activity' that will almost certainly be necessary to bring total human impacts back down to 1.5 C levels (human impacts are expected to exceed the globally agreed 1.5 C level).

    Pathways Alliance action, if they get subsidized to the degree they want and actually do something to reduce carbon emissions, would improve Canada's Climate Actions. But the most recent Climate Action Tracker evaluation of Canada linked here (pointed to by prove we are smart in this comment on another SkS item) is "Highly Insufficient" significantly due to leadership being compromised by being interested in profiting more from being more harmful and evading the costs of being less harmful. The Pathways Alliance improvement may only move Canada to "Insufficient" Climate Action.

    It appears the (Canadian, Alberta, oil sands investors) hope is that some fossil fuel use will be globally agreed to be needed after 2050 to exclusively provide essential assistance for the least fortunate to live basic decent lives. And they (Canada, Alberta and oil sands investors), being net-zero suppliers by then, should be globally supported to be the chosen suppliers.

    Harmful actions can only be justified if the harm is required to provide essential life assistance to the less fortunate (and it would be unacceptable for anyone to profit from providing that assistance - it should be not-for-profit).

    That raises many questions including:

    Will Canada, Alberta and oil sands investors all agree to be Net-zero-profit-takers after 2050?

    And will they have taken action and paid what it costs to minimize the need to divert 'real carbon removal actions' to offset their remaining impacts (diversion required so they can claim to be 'net-zero' suppliers of a harmful product)?

    And will they agree by 2050 that the only benefit from their 'net-zero product that will produce harmful impacts when used as expected' is to be obtained by the least fortunate (refusing to export it to questionable buyers)?

  40. prove we are smart at 22:44 PM on 20 May 2024
    Climate change is affecting mental health literally everywhere

    “Sometimes people report it’s not one feeling or the other,” Lawrance says. “They feel a lot of ways at once, and feelings can change day to day.” One day might bring a mix of fear, grief, anger, guilt, hopelessness, or numbness"

    Thats me-all of the above and I have to remind myself often-

    "There is no threshold past which we should stop trying to address climate change, according to climate scientist Michael Mann, who has frequently collaborated with Hassol. Every tenth of a degree change in temperature affects the extent of climate disruptions. That means the sooner we accelerate efforts, the better, but it doesn’t mean all hope is lost because we haven’t already solved the problem."

    Also by Daisy Simmons.. yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/how-to-talk-to-a-climate-doomer-even-if-that-doomer-is-you/

    For our Australian perspective... www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/news/the-implications-of-climate-change-on-mental-health/

  41. Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming

    Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on May 19, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance

  42. One Planet Only Forever at 05:52 AM on 19 May 2024
    Fact Brief - Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?

    Great brief rebuttal of the ridiculous belief that breathing contributes to increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

    A minor nit-pick with a suggested better presentation added in italics:

    The CO2 we breathe is part of a balanced carbon exchange between the air and the earth. In contrast, burning fossil fuels injects oxidized carbon, CO2, into the atmosphere that has been stored underground in hydrocarbon molecules for millions of years, causing a rapid buildup.

    Tragically, the popularity of absurd beliefs requires efforts to 'change the minds' of people who are easily tempted to believe nonsense when the alternative is 'learning about the need to stop trying to benefit from being unjustifiably more harmful'.

    The first Open Access Notable presented in "Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2024" - Publicly expressed climate scepticism is greatest in regions with high CO2 emissions, Pearson et al., Climatic Change - highlights that regions benefiting from high harmful CO2 impacts have higher percentages of the population willing to believe nonsense.

    I live in Alberta so I was not surprised by the research results regarding climate skepticism ... and I am painfully aware that nonsense beliefs like 'breathing contributes to the CO2 problem' can be persistently popular among 'highly educated people' who have developed interests that conflict with being less harmful.

  43. The Conspiracy Theory Handbook: Downloads and translations

    On May 17, 2024 the Dutch translation of the Conspiracy Theory Handbook was published, bringing the number of available translations up to 19!

  44. prove we are smart at 14:21 PM on 17 May 2024
    Drought fuels wildfire concerns as Canada braces for another intense summer

    I read of these fires and their terrible impact locally and their downwind smoke impact on its bigger neighbour over the border. Reading more information here, the similarities with some of our Australian Climate Change experiences was apparant, although some of our aussie flora is adapted to fire, probably not so Canadian flora. The catastrophic fires burnt approx a similar area size too -17million hectares and incinerated over a billion animals in the case of the conservative Australian fire estimate                                                            www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/AustralianBushfires

    Both countries have a terrible colonial history which is still felt in these times- their massive reliance on sinks in the land sector obscures its ongoing support for fossil fuels. Our rating remains "Insufficient."  climateactiontracker.org/blog/analysis-reliance-on-sinks-and-support-of-fossil-fuels-undermines-climate-action/  and Canadian govt?climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/ 

    If when "the chickens come home to roost" would apply only to the biggest fossil fuel users and exporters-

    77% of climate scientists agree at least 2.5degrees Celsius is our worlds best effort  www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaaJqPCjNr4&t=366s  It's kinda impressive how many people didn't get the point of the video: she isn't saying that the goals aren't legitimate or necessary, she's pointing out the disconnect between what's potentially necessary and what is actually being done

    We are fiddling while Rome burns or up the creek without a paddle in the case of the biggest flood in my local 150yr history- 2yrs after those horrendous fires-over 2m higher! www.lismore.nsw.gov.au/Community/Emergencies-and-disasters/Flood-information

    Our societies are comfortably numb, till an outrage from the grass-roots, it's keep us divided and change channels when faced with a major reality check.

                                                                              

  45. Martin Watson at 09:41 AM on 15 May 2024
    There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Bob Loblaw and MA Rodger

    Thank you both for your replies. I will follow up on those suggestions.

  46. 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19

    Video -- Skeptical Science - Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19 4:51    

    Moderator Response:

    [BL] Eddie: when you post a link like this, please remember to give a brief description of what people should expect to find at the other end of link.

    For the information of others, it is a Youtube video reading of the SkS News Roundup of this week (as suggested in the text title of the link).

  47. There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Martin Watson @ 184,

    As you say, the graphic appears in a Science article CenCO2PIP Consortium (2023) 'Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2', although more correctly it was in the 'commentary' of the paper and it also then sported a scale for the GMST (which in my eyes isn't so helpful).

    The paper itself does provide a more conventional graphic (Fig2) which does show 20-odd Mya CO2 levels of perhaps 300ppm and GMST of some +3ºC above pre-indusrial.

    While CO2 is the major control knob of Earth's GMST, other factors can make a big difference. The closure of the Panama Isthmus certainly is one of these 'other factors'. The timing is not so well defined (with some even suggesting a date as ancient as 23Mya, this a seriously controversial suggestion), and the changes at work in the climate system which resulted are far from straightforward. The conventional version is that the inital result of the closure was a warmer Earth but that kicked-off the Norhern glaciations which tipped the Earth into a colder phase leading to the recent ice-age cycles (as per for instance Bartoli et al (2005) 'Final closure of Panama and the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation'.)

  48. There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Martin Watson @ 184:

    The diagram you post is not radically different from the graphs and data presented in the intermediate tab of the "CO2 was higher in the past" rebuttal. That rebuttal gives a fairly detailed look at CO2 history over longer periods, and discusses many of the other factors that also affect temperature at geologic time scales.

    From a brief point of view, many other factors would have been different at the time you ask about (25 million years ago), so one would expect that temperatures would not exactly match those of today.

    I suggest that you look over that rebuttal for possible answers, and then continue the discussion on that thread.

  49. Martin Watson at 03:16 AM on 14 May 2024
    There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature

    Could someone clear up another little issue for me. I've come across this graph today, which was taken last year from a big literature review in the journal Science. I'm confused by the dip at about 25 million years ago. It seems to show CO2 levels similar to today but temperatures much higher. I don't think I've seen this dip on other graphs.

    news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/12/07/a-new-66-million-year-history-of-carbon-dioxide-offers-little-comfort-for-today/

  50. One Planet Only Forever at 03:23 AM on 13 May 2024
    2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19

    Based on the Story of the Week:

    The consensus of people who seriously and responsibly investigate global climate appears to be that, due to the undeniable failure of global leadership by the most harmful powerful people, humanity's future requires adaptation to more dramatically end the use of fossil fuels and other harmful developed human activities plus adaptation to the expensive effort to reduce the excessive accumulated harmful impacts.

    When people resist learning to be less harmful 'liberty reducing law and order' can become the required corrective recourse (far better than the disaster of attempted rebellion against undeserving powerful harmful leaders) ... but that requires people who are focused on being less harmful and more helpful to others to 'govern law and order actions without compromising the actions to get along with people who resist learning to be less harmful'.

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