Arguments
Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".
Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2026
Posted on 23 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Technical note: new feature in New Research
Every article we list here is eyeball-scanned by a real human but we do lean on bibliographic catalogs (publication databases) to supply article metadata for assembly of each edition of our weekly research surveillance scan. A little in-house software on our end connected via an API to a rich suite of upstream bibliographic information makes regular production possible.
While recently making API changes to improve our background tooling for New Research, we found ourselves unable to resist tapping into a little more information to include in our regular product. There's one key metric to help us all better understand what practicing scientists find most useful (and stimulating) in the torrent of climate-related research reports we sample here each week: "how many investigators cite a work in their own inquiries?" Our knowledge boundaray inexorably expands past any given report, but older results may well be foundational to newer exploration. So, we've added an little retrospective to each domain section in our weekly listing. For each section, we query our data, asking "what paper listed here 2 years ago has been most cited since it appeared?" This new feature appears at the end of each section:
There's a vast wealth in our bibliographic resources of ways to see how fresh information travels and effloresces after publication. For instance, by looking at raw cite statistics one might think that Springer-Nature is the center of mass of the entire academic publishing world. But by other metrics quite likely better describing concentration of thought and new insight, the barycenter of cutting-edge human intellect may well lie elsewhere. Given enough effort it's possible to "see" such things in diagram form— but there are not 36 hours in a day, unfortunately. Hopefully we'll have time to explore more!
After this round of tinkering, we now rely entirely on OpenAlex for bibliographic catalog API services. While this speeds internal production, we continue to recommend Unpaywall, and particularly the Unpaywall browser extension which for readers denied institutional privileges affords much handier access to many research articles.
Open access notables
Increasing Population and Cropland Exposure to Human-Induced Sequential Heatwave-Downpour Events, Guan et al., Earth s Future
Compound sequential heatwave-downpour (SHD) events, characterized by abrupt shifts from heatwaves to heavy rainfall, pose serious threats to health, infrastructure, and agriculture. However, the anthropogenic influence on the increasing trend of SHD events is poorly understood, and projections also exhibit large uncertainties. Our study revealed that the affected area of SHD events has grown notably across the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic influences account for approximately 82.2% of the increase in affected areas of SHD events, with greenhouse gas emissions contributing the most. The constrained projection found that the exposure of population and cropland will increase nearly 8-fold under a high-emission scenario in the long term (2081–2100), compared to the current climate baseline (1991–2020). Notably, climate change, rather than population or land use change, is identified as the dominant driver of this increased exposure. Our finding highlights that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can mitigate the impacts of SHD on populations and croplands.
Dramatic increase in ecosystem respiration causes record-breaking atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2024, Dong et al., Nature Communications
2024 is the hottest year on record, accompanied by extreme precipitation, droughts and fires. The global atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2024 reached a historic high of 3.73 ppm yr-1, significantly surpassing the previous record set during the 2015/16 El Niño event. Here, we investigate the causes and underlying mechanisms of this record-high growth rate by combining satellite-based atmospheric inversions and estimates of gross primary production and fire emissions. We find that the record-high CO2 growth rate is due to large reductions in the land CO2 sink. This is dominated by a dramatic increase in total ecosystem respiration, which occurred primarily in grass and shrub lands, owing to compound hot-wet climatic conditions in 2024. Given the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of compound pluvial-hot extremes under warming, changes in ecosystem respiration will become more drastic and cause positive feedback to climate warming.
Climate futures require politics, Leininger et al., Nature Communications [commentary]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) seventh assessment cycle (AR7) has begun. Scientists have started to assess the literature on feasible and just climate and sustainability scenarios. The recommendations of the IPCC Workshop on the lessons learnt from the use of scenarios in AR6 point to the need for political science expertise to improve scenarios1. One key aspect highlighted in this report is political development2, including the quality and effectiveness of institutions, rule of law, and maintenance of peace. These factors have not yet been incorporated systematically and quantitatively into the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to generate pathways of climate action that are assessed in the IPCC. Findings of the IPCC have substantially influenced global climate action. If the omission of political development biases the conclusions drawn from scenario analysis, then the real-world merit of the scenario-based findings is called into question. Therefore, the purpose of this commentary is to suggest steps to improve the incorporation of political development in scenarios during the AR7 assessments and beyond.
A weakened diurnal weather constraint leads to longer burning hours in North America, Luo et al., Science Advances
Contemporary North American wildfires exhibit increasingly erratic intraday burning, posing immediate operational and socioeconomic challenges. Here, we show that climate-driven weakening of day-night (diurnal) weather constraints extends and intensifies burning hours, a key mechanism behind broader fire regime transformations. Analyzing hourly geostationary satellite observations for ~9000 fires (>200 hectares; 2017–2023), we found western mountains and boreal forests experienced the longest active burning hours, with approximately one-third of active days exceeding 12 hours. About 60% of fires reached peak intensity within 24 hours of detection, while 14% of active days peaked at night. On the basis of fire weather, annual potential burning hours were estimated to rise 36% over 1975–2024, with pronounced increases in western regions and spring/fall (48 to 57%). Regions with significant changes gained 26 more potential active days annually and 1.2 additional potential burning hours daily, while extreme days (≥12 or 24 potential burning hours) rose 81 to 233% in fire-prone biomes. Future management requires adaptation to wildfires that increasingly defy diurnal norms.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Change Concern Near Its High Point in U.S, Jeffery Jones, Gallup
Americans’ concern about global warming or climate change remains elevated compared with what it had been prior to 2017. At least four in 10 U.S. adults have expressed “a great deal” of concern about the matter throughout the past decade except for a 39% reading in 2023. Between 2009 and 2016, worry was typically in the low-to-mid 30% range but dropped to as low as 25% in 2011. Currently, 44% of U.S. adults worry a great deal about global warming or climate change, among the highest in the full trend since 1989, along with 46% measured in 2020 and 45% in 2017.
A Global Fleet Under Wind: Scaling Wind Propulsion for Emission Reduction, Energy Demand and Equity, Mason et al., Seas at Risk
The authors present a first-ever study showcasing the benefits of wind propulsion when scaled up to the global fleet. Drawing on 1.74 billion kilometers of real voyage data – the equivalent distance from Earth to Saturn – wind propulsion could, conservatively, reduce modelled wind ship fuel use by 6.3-9.4%, with an even greater potential if paired with other optimization measures such as weather routing, slowing down speeds, and hull cleaning. By 2050, it could deliver up to 762 million tons of cumulative CO2 savings, getting us closer to our climate targets. The technology is here, but is policy willing?
173 articles in 70 journals by 1545 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Can Large-Scale Clustering of Tropical Precipitation Be Used to Constrain Climate Sensitivity?, Blackberg & Singh, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045282
EGU2026 - My plans for attending virtually
Posted on 22 April 2026 by BaerbelW
This year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will again take place as a fully hybrid conference in both Vienna and online from May 4 to 8. This year, I'll join the event virtually for the full week, participating in the hybrid sessions from the comforts of my home. I already picked most of the sessions I plan to attend and - as meet-hopping is a lot easier online than on-site - I didn't have to pay close attention to where in the conference center they happen. This year, I submitted abstracts to two sessions and both happen to be on Monday. This suits me just fine as it means, that I can freely plan the rest of my week, picking and chosing sessions piquing my interest. This blog post provides an overview of my itinerary.
Monday morning, May 4
The very first session for me at this year's EGU meeting starts at 8:30 and will be EOS1.1 Science and Society: Science Communication Practice, Research, and Reflection in which I'll have the first of my two oral presentation slots. The session has been (co)convened by Roberta Bellini, Nuno Pimentel, Megan O'Donnell, Thomas Harvey, Ashley Akingbade and Nikos Kalivitis and will include the Angela Croome Award Lecture as well as the Katia and Maurice Krafft Award Lecture.
Science communication includes the efforts of natural, physical and social scientists, communications professionals, and teams that communicate the process and values of science and scientific findings to non-specialist audiences outside of formal educational settings. The goals of science communication can include enhanced dialogue, understanding, awareness, enthusiasm, influencing sustainable behaviour change, improving decision making, and/or community building. Channels to facilitate science communication can include in-person interaction through teaching and outreach programs, and online through social media, mass media, podcasts, video, or other methods. This session invites presentations by individuals and teams on science communication practice, research, and reflection, addressing questions like:
- What kind of communication efforts are you engaging in and how are you doing it?
- What are the biggest challenges or successes you’ve had in engaging the public with your work?
- How are other disciplines (such as social sciences) informing understanding of audiences, strategies, or effects?
- How do you spark joy and foster emotional connection through activities?
- How do you allow for co-creation of ideas within a community?
- How are you assessing and measuring the positive impacts on society of your endeavours?
- What are lessons learned from long-term communication efforts?
Based on its description this seemed to be a very good session to talk about our upcoming website relaunch and it'll be my turn for not quite 10 minutes at 10:05 to do just that in my assigned oral slot. This is the abstract I submitted a few months ago:
Global warming is making the strongest hurricanes stronger
Posted on 21 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters
In brief:
- Multiple studies have found that tropical cyclones are becoming stronger worldwide.
- New so-called attribution studies have linked increased wind speeds to human-caused ocean warming.
- In the future, scientists expect an increase in the proportion of Category 4 and Category 5 tropical cyclones.
The dangers posed by one of humanity's greatest scourges – the tropical cyclone – are being significantly increased by human-caused global warming. In fact, one of the more confident predictions about how climate change will affect these great storms — which we will refer to by their Atlantic name when they reach winds of 74 mph (119 km/hr) or greater, the hurricane — is that the winds of the strongest ones will get stronger. But how much stronger? Are we already seeing this happening? And how do scientists know?
Spotty data
People began collecting high-quality, satellite-based global tropical cyclone data only around 1982. The relatively poor quality and short length of the global hurricane database, combined with the natural high variability in hurricanes, make ironclad scientific statements on how climate change is affecting hurricanes difficult. In their Global Warming and Hurricanes explainer, scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory wrote, "it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability." Statements like this are often used by climate deniers to downplay climate change risks.
That said, scientists do understand the basics. Hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and convert it to the kinetic energy of their winds. A hotter ocean will allow hurricanes to grow more powerful, assuming that the other factors that support intensification, including low wind shear and a moist atmosphere, are present.
And there is already evidence that the strongest storms are getting stronger. For example, a July 2025 analysis found that human-caused climate change increased the intensity of 2024's Atlantic hurricanes by 3%-12%. This may seem trivial, but a 5% increase in hurricane winds yields about a 50% increase in damage: Hurricane damage increases exponentially with an increase in winds (see NOAA's damage multiplier table in Fig. 3)
For 2024's devastating Hurricane Helene, another study found an 11% increase in winds because of climate change, accounting for 44% of the $81 billion in damage caused by Helene.
As Cuba’s grid fails, solar power becomes a lifeline
Posted on 20 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Pearl Marvell
The Trump administration’s fuel blockade against Cuba has resulted in widespread power outages, gas shortages, garbage in the streets, and a humanitarian crisis – but also a surge in solar installations.
In 2025, the Caribbean nation produced 10% of its electricity from renewable sources, a jump from 3.6% in 2024, according to Rosell Guerra Campaña, director of the Ministry of Renewable Energy at Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines.
Cuba’s increased reliance on renewables is driven by dire necessity.
Since President Donald Trump’s January 2026 executive order imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, gas and diesel supplies have grown sparse, forcing many residents to stay home.
“The streets feel like a ghost town,” said Michael Galant, a senior research and outreach associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who visited Cuba for work in March.
Galant described the situation as “extremely dire” and “visibly worse” than what he saw in previous visits.
Trash trucks can’t operate without fuel, so garbage is piling up on city streets and creating a breeding ground for the mosquitoes that spread diseases like dengue and chikungunya. The alternative is to burn the trash, polluting the air.
U.N. experts condemned the fuel blockade in February.
“The U.S. executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba is a serious violation of international law and a grave threat to a democratic and equitable international order,” they said.
Residents in La Habana and Morón, in the middle of the main island of Cuba, have expressed their frustration by banging pots and pans at all hours.
The U.S. capture in January of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has intensified the crisis, as Venezuela was previously one of the primary suppliers of oil to Cuba. In February, Trump allowed the resumption of some Venezuelan oil imports, but that has not halted the energy crisis. Other countries that used to supply oil have cut Cuba off under the threat of U.S. tariffs.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
Posted on 19 April 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)
- Climate change is outpacing evolution. Scientists are using DNA to catch up Phys.org, Annika Hammerschlag, Apr 10, 2026.
- Marine heatwaves `nearly double` the economic damage caused by tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify when passing over marine heatwaves can become “supercharged”, increasing the likelihood of high economic losses, a new study finds. Carbon Brief, Giuliana Viglione, Apr 10, 2026.
- ‘Heat Batteries’ Leave Some City Blocks Scorched "Even measures designed to help, like air conditioning, can create vicious cycles that lead to hotter temps." Inside Climate News, Lauren Dalban, Apr 14, 2026.
- ‘Nothing but tree skeletons’: record-breaking wildfires devastate US cattle country "Rising temperatures and extreme drought are driving more destructive spring fires across the American Great Plains. This year, forces aligned to create the perfect storm in Nebraska" The Guardian, Gabrielle Canon, Apr 14, 2026.
- Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Apr 15, 2026.
- Global warming is making the strongest hurricanes stronger Recent studies link human-caused warming to more powerful, more destructive storms worldwide. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Apr 15, 2026.
- Wildfires used to 'go to sleep' at night. Climate change has them burning overtime The number of hours in North America when the weather is favorable for wildfires is 36% higher than 50 years ago. The Independent News, Seth Borenstein, Apr 17, 2026.
Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles)
- How the Trump administration`s climate math doesn`t add up There's an old argument that protecting the environment hurts the economy. It's wrong for a lot of reasons. Grist, Kate Yoder, Apr 10, 2026.
- Who Loses in the Trump Administration’s $1 Billion ‘Deal’ to Abandon Offshore Wind? "That would be American ratepayers—i.e., you." Inside Climate News, Jenni Doering, Apr 11, 2026.
- Don’t mention the climate: Trump creates ‘beyond absurd’ situation at global finance talks "Developing countries face possible shelving of crucial green action plan at IMF and World Bank spring meetings" The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Apr 13, 2026.
- The Treasury Secretary vs. Climate Science In comments on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the scientific consensus on the causes of climate change. New York Times, Lisa Friedman, Apr 14, 2026.
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2026 This week's Skeptical Science research scan included 107 new reports by 763 contributing investigators, as well as 11 government/NGO items related to matters of climate change. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Apr 16, 2026.
- US pressure puts World Bank`s climate plan at risk Assiduously working on behalf of Big Oil and not the citizens who elected it, the Trump administration pressures the World Bank to play dumb on climate. Climate Home News, Matteo Civillini, Apr 16, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2026
Posted on 16 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural phenomena, causing substantial economic damage and severe impacts on human life and infrastructure. Prolonged extreme ocean temperature events, known as marine heat waves (MHWs), affect 52% of landfalling TCs globally and provide favorable conditions for TC rapid intensification (RI). Here, we use four decades of global data to demonstrate that TCs experiencing RI during MHWs resulted in 60% more billion-dollar disasters compared to those without heat wave influence. Our analysis reveals these costlier storms produced consistently higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates. We found that, for billion-dollar TCs, even controlling for similar levels of coastal development, MHW TCs cause significantly higher damages than their counterparts, confirming that their enhanced intensity characteristics amplify economic impacts beyond what would be expected from exposure alone. These findings underscore the critical need for improved disaster preparedness as MHWs increasingly supercharge TCs’ intensity, leading to more frequent billion-dollar disasters.
Attributing and projecting record-shattering September tropical night events in East Asia, Seo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes
In 2024, East Asia experienced an unprecedented nighttime heatwave during the summer. This study analyzes the features of 2024 tropical night events in July-August (JA) and September (SEP) and projects their future occurrence under different global warming levels (GWLs). The analysis reveals that the daily minimum temperature and specific humidity reached unprecedented levels in both JA and SEP in 2024, remarkable in SEP with breaking records by four or more standard deviations. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, the 2024-like tropical night events exhibit zero probability of occurring under the historical climate with natural forcing only and remain rare even under historical climate involving anthropogenic forcing, particularly for SEP tropical night. Under future warming scenarios, the return period of 2024-like event drastically shortens, reaching 71, 10, and 2.5 years at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GWL, respectively, implying that such events could become frequent and nearly regular event under higher warming levels.
Sensitivity of Heatwave Characteristics to the Climatic Baseline, Fraser-Leonhardt et al., Atmospheric Science Letters
Temperature extremes are usually defined relative to conditions during a past baseline period. Due to global warming, different baselines produce different results for heatwave frequency, intensity, spatial extent and duration. This study investigates how the choice of baseline affects summer heatwave metrics across Europe from 1950 to 2023. We evaluate regional and temporal differences in heatwave characteristics using both grid-point analysis and a case study of the 2003 European heatwaves using observational daily maximum summer temperature for three different baselines (1961–1990, 1981–2010 and 1991–2020). Results show that more recent baselines yield a substantial reduction across Europe in observed heatwave frequency, of up to 12 days per summer in some southern European regions. The average intensity of heatwaves relative to the 90th percentile decreases by up to 2.0°C when using more recent baselines. The largest reductions are observed in southern and central Europe. The spatial extent of the 2003 European heatwave declines by more than 0.5 million km2 if using more recent baselines, and the duration shortens by up to 2 days as conditions that would have been extreme in the past are nearer the new normal. However, 2003 is still classified as a mega-heatwave under both baselines. Comparisons of fixed, detrended and rolling reference approaches show that methods that vary baselines, assuming linear warming—despite its unrealistic nature—yield similar results to rolling reference windows from 1960 onward.
A topographically-controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice-sheet melt, Petrini et al., The Cryosphere
A major impact of anthropogenic climate change is the crossing of tipping points, which may have severe consequences such as the complete mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). At present, the GrIS is losing mass at an accelerated rate, largely due to a steep decrease in its surface mass balance (SMB; the balance between snow accumulation and surface ablation from melt and associated runoff). Previous work on the magnitude and nature of a threshold for GrIS complete melt remains controversial. Here, we explore a potential SMB threshold for complete melt of the GrIS; the impact and interplay of surface melt and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in determining this threshold; and whether the GrIS exhibits characteristics commonly associated with tipping points, such as sensitivity to external forcing. To this end, we force the Community Ice Sheet Model v.2 (CISM2) by cycling different SMB climatologies previously calculated at multiple elevation classes with the Community Earth System Model v.2 (CESM2) in a two-way coupled CESM2–CISM2 transient simulation of the global climate and GrIS under high CO2 forcing. The SMB calculation in CESM2 has been evaluated with contemporary observations and high-resolution modelling and includes an advanced representation of surface melt and snow–firn processes.
We find a positive SMB threshold for complete GrIS melt of 230 ± 84 Gt yr−1, corresponding to a 60 % decrease in SMB and to a global mean warming of +3.4 K compared to pre-industrial CESM2–CISM2 simulated values. In our simulations, a small change in the initial SMB forcing (from 255 to 230 Gt yr−1) and global mean warming above pre-industrial levels (from +3.2 to +3.4 K) causes an abrupt change in the GrIS final volume (from 50 % mass to nearly complete deglaciation). This nonlinear behaviour is caused by the SMB–elevation feedback, which responds to changes in surface topography due to surface melt and GIA. The GrIS tips from ∼ 50 % mass towards nearly complete melt when the impact of melt-induced surface lowering outweighs that of GIA-induced bedrock uplift and the (initially positive) SMB becomes and remains negative for at least a few thousand years. We also find that the GrIS tips towards nearly complete melt when the ice margin in the central west unpins from a coastal region with high topography and SMB. We show that if we keep the SMB fixed (i.e. no SMB–elevation feedback) in this relatively confined region, the ice sheet retreat is halted and nearly complete GrIS melt is prevented even though the initial SMB forcing is past the threshold. Based on the minimum GrIS configuration in previous paleo-ice-sheet modelling studies, we suggest that the surface topography in the central west might have played a role in preventing larger GrIS loss during the last interglacial period ∼ 130–115 kyr BP.
From this week's government/NGO section:
The President and the Power Grid, Alexandra Klass and Dave Owen, SSRN
There is a sharp discontinuity between the second Trump administration's electricity policies and those of previous presidential administrations. President Trump has directed the Department of Energy to use statutory authority designed for wartime conditions and sudden emergencies to prevent electric utilities from retiring aging coal plants. In doing so, he has elevated the President's role in electric grid governance and reduced the primacy of the independent expert regulatory agency-the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-that Congress authorized to govern electricity markets and grid reliability. This Essay places these actions in historical context. It recounts the executive branch's role in electricity policy during the first part of the twentieth century, when the federal government responded to wartime crises by building new electricity supplies and actively managing existing electricity infrastructure. While these early and mid-twentieth century executive actions may superficially resemble present-day events, they were, in fact, profoundly different. Even amid the urgency of wartime, the executive branch was laying the foundation for an integrated grid managed by expert government agencies, not through direct presidential decrees, and it was working for technological progress, not regression. Building on this history, this Essay then explains why the present-day shift from expert agencies to presidential power in electric grid governance matters. The most obvious reason is that it will carry heavy financial and environmental costs to consumers and the nation. But the increased assertion of presidential power in electric grid governance also has doctrinal significance in light of recent developments in Supreme Court jurisprudence surrounding statutory interpretation and presidential use of emergency authorities.
Understanding the Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Restrictions: Evidence from Indiana, USA, Hicks et al., Center for Business and Economic Research, Miller College of Business, Ball State University
The authors summarize the findings of a broader empirical study examining the how county-level restrictions on utility scale wind and solar facilities affect economic activity. The results consistently show that counties adopting renewable energy restrictions for either or both wind and solar experienced weaker economic performance than counties without restrictions. Differences are most evident in employment outcomes and GDP, with effects concentrated in manufacturing and related sectors. Employment effects are mostly negative. Although 113 jobs were added in the agricultural sector, the total number of jobs in manufacturing and transportation/ warehousing declined by 8,841 exclusively in counties with restrictions), resulting in an overall net loss of 8,728 jobs. Counties with wind and solar energy restrictions experienced an aggregate net loss of $204 million in GDP, while adjacent counties experienced a GDP gain of $13 million. Counties with these restrictions also experienced slower growth in assessed value and local revenue. Over time, the reduced tax base can constrain the local government’s ability to fund public services or maintain infrastructure without raising tax rates.
107 articles in 53 journals by 763 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in ENSO-Induced Ocean Heat Content Redistribution under Global Warming, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0184.1
ENSO’s Strengthened Control over Global Climate Anomalies in a Warmer World, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0550.1
Don’t panic: A field guide to the runaway greenhouse
Posted on 15 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler
In a recent post on his Substack, Jim Hansen wrote about “runaway climates” on Earth, and I thought it would be useful to explain the physics of what this actually means and whether it’s something we need to worry about.
A runaway greenhouse occurs when humans add enough carbon dioxide to the atmosphere to push it past a threshold beyond which warming becomes self-sustaining and unstoppable1.
Venus is the canonical example of what that looks like. At some point in the past, it probably looked a lot like Earth. But then the planet heated up and boiled the oceans. Over time, ultraviolet radiation from the Sun split the water molecules into constituent hydrogen and oxygen atoms and the hydrogen escaped to space. In this way, the planet lost its water.
The loss of the ocean also caused the carbon cycle to shut down. This means that, unlike on Earth, where carbon dioxide is continuously removed from the atmosphere by dissolving into the ocean, there’s nothing removing carbon dioxide from the Venusian atmosphere. As a result, carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere.
Today, Venus has an atmosphere that’s 90 times more massive than the Earth’s and it’s almost entirely carbon dioxide. The resulting greenhouse effect leads to surface temperatures around 450°C (850°F) — basically the temperature of your oven on self-clean cycle — and under pressures comparable to those at the bottom of the ocean.
In this hellish environment, spacecraft engineered specifically to survive Venusian conditions are still only able to last one or two hours before they are destroyed by the harsh environment.
So let’s take a step back and consider what it takes for the climate to run away.
Human-caused climate change is unmistakably distinct from Earth’s natural climate variability
Posted on 14 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Staying Curious by Dean Rovang
This post presents two figures that are the culmination of an extended effort to build the strongest possible empirical case for what the paleoclimate record shows about CO? and temperature. They draw on five independent regression fits across four independent archives and 66 million years of geological evidence. The argument stands on its own merits.
Earth’s natural climate relationship
Three completely independent temperature reconstructions — the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C ice core, the Snyder (2016) Bayesian stack of 61 marine sediment cores, and the Clark et al. (2024) area-weighted reconstruction of 111 marine sediment cores — are plotted against the same CO? record on common axes. All three share Bereiter et al. (2015) as their CO? source, the best available composite for this period. The geological stages from Judd et al. (2024) extend the record to 66 million years.
Five regression fits are shown. Four use York/ODR regression — the method that accounts for measurement uncertainty in both CO? and temperature simultaneously, and the method used by Judd et al. themselves. The fifth is the canonical EPICA OLS fit using the original EDC CO? source, included because it was the first fit introduced relative to the Judd curve and remains the most conservative estimate in the set. All five land between 8.24 and 9.91 K/doubling of CO? — the same tier regardless of dataset, CO? source, or regression method.
The figure spans Earth’s climate from deep ice ages — CO? near 175 ppm, global temperatures near 8°C — to the warm Cenozoic periods when there were no significant continental ice sheets and sea levels were 60–70 meters higher. A natural question is whether the ice-albedo feedback drives this slope — and whether it therefore only applies to glaciated climates. The figure addresses this directly: most of Judd’s data comes from greenhouse climates with little or no continental ice — the Eocene, Oligocene, early Miocene — yet the same slope holds across the full range. If ice-albedo were the dominant driver, the relationship should look different in ice-free regimes. It does not, which Judd et al. themselves describe as surprising. The relationship appears to be a fundamental property of the Earth system across a wide range of boundary conditions, with and without ice sheets.
What’s cheaper: Fueling your car with gas or electricity?
Posted on 13 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk
he price of gasoline has spiked amid a U.S.-led war with Iran. It’s not uncommon for the fossil fuel economy to be disrupted by geopolitical conflicts, but now consumers have more options than ever to protect themselves from price hikes.
EVs are already putting a dent into oil consumption worldwide, and as gas prices climb higher, the simple efficiency of an EV could become all the more appealing. In all 50 states, the cost of home-charging an EV is considerably cheaper than fueling a car with gasoline.
The map above shows the cost of charging an EV at home. The price is expressed in “eGallons,” which is the cost of charging an EV by an amount equivalent to one gallon of gasoline.
I wrote about the math behind the eGallon and plotted a similar map of prices in early 2024, when gas was relatively cheap. And even then, EVs were much more economical to drive. But now, consumers have even more incentive to make the switch.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Posted on 12 April 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (9 articles)
- The US is now paying more than any other country for climate change damage, study suggests "Despite being the biggest carbon emitter, the US is already paying a disproportionate price for the climate crisis" BBC Science Focus, Hatty Willmoth, Mar 31, 2026.
- The Western US is already running out of water — and summer is still months away The Western US is already running out of water — and summer is still months away Vox, Kiley Price, Apr 3, 2026 .
- Scientists warn the Gulf Stream is shifting north, which means an ocean current collapse is imminent Earthdotcom, Eric Ralls, Apr 4, 2026.
- Climate experts say spring is coming earlier. How will that affect agriculture and ecosystems? "An earlier spring affects when migratory birds arrive, leaves emerge, and fruit ripens — among plants and animals that determine ecosystem health." Grist, Héctor Alejandro Arzate, Apr 5, 2026.
- A biblical megaflood could hit the US at any moment. And that’s only the beginning "A flood, the scale of which has not been seen in centuries, is coming, scientists say. Can we prepare before it hits?" BBC Science, Tom Howarth, Apr 6, 2026.
- Strongest El Niño in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring. "This year’s potential super El Niño is looking increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027." Washington Post, Ben Noll, Apr 6, 2026.
- A Super El Niño is coming. Here’s how a hotter ocean could change the weather near you CNN, Andrew Freed,an, Apr 7, 2026.
- The first predictions for hurricane season are in and El Niño’s fingerprints are all over it CNN, Mary Gilbert, Apr 9, 2026.
- The world just had its second-warmest March on record "Arctic sea ice had its lowest seasonal maximum and lowest March extent on record." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Apr 9, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2026
Posted on 9 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Why we need to explore conflict and competition around solar geoengineering, Möller & Young, PLOS Climate
In an increasingly aggressive international political environment, solar geoengineering needs to be reconceptualized – not only as a response to climate change, but as an instrument of power. This conceptualization means going beyond focusing on cooperative scenarios in which the technoluogy is used to effectively reduce temperature rise while minimizing potential side effects. As scholars of international relations, we see a need for more interdisciplinary engagement with solar geoengineering scenarios that explicitly feature political conflict and competition. By anticipating and exploring these, we can better contribute to informing governance arrangements that might be able to prevent situations that undermine international political stability and efforts to address climate change.
El Niño Events Enhance Melting of Sea Ice in the West of Greenland, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters
Using reanalysis data sets and numerical simulations, this study investigates the linkage between El Niño events and spring Arctic sea ice melt rate (AMR) in the west of Greenland. The results indicate that the accelerated spring AMR often corresponds to the previous winter's El Niño–like sea surface temperature anomalies. El Niño strengthens the Aleutian Low, facilitating the upward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves into the lower stratosphere and leading to a weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex in the North Pacific sector. This weakened vortex subsequently propagates downward into the troposphere over the North Atlantic sector in spring, inducing a cyclonic anomaly over the Svalbard Islands and an anticyclonic anomaly over the North Atlantic. Such conditions favor the development of southeasterly near-surface winds, which can transport warm air from lower latitudes northward, thereby influencing sea ice melting in the west of Greenland.
Increased Arctic Sea-Ice Variability Is Associated With Amplified Air-Sea Heat Fluxes, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters
While the role of long-term sea ice decline in shaping Arctic climate change is well-established, the contribution of short-term sea-ice variability remains insufficiently explored. Here we present observational evidence that since 2007, sea ice fluctuations in Arctic marginal ice zone have remained at a high level. The annual-mean daily variability of sea ice concentration rose by 11.4%, with high-variability days becoming more frequent, especially in summer and autumn. Composite analyses reveal enhanced net heat uptake in summer (+11.9%) and greater ocean-to-atmosphere heat release in winter (+45.3%), both of which intensify after 2007. Causal analyses reveal a feedback, with higher sea ice variability being closely linked to and reinforced by anomalous net heat fluxes. These findings highlight the increasing short-term variability of the Arctic sea-ice and its key role in regulating local air–sea heat exchange.
Decarbonising existing buildings with heat pumps – Early evidence and policy analysis for Switzerland, Patel et al., PLOS Climate
In order to overcome the problem that oil and gas boilers in existing buildings are typically replaced again by fossil fuel boilers, leading cantons in Switzerland have started to implement more targeted decarbonisation policies. The objective of the present paper is to critically discuss the experience made with policy measures for the decarbonisation of building-related heating systems in these cantons. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted as primary method. Early evidence indicates that the policies are effective by ensuring the transition to renewable heating technologies (primarily heat pumps). The implemented policy packages include coercive elements (mandatory renewable energy shares), subsidies as well as information and communication measures, resulting in a quasi-ban of fossil fuel boilers. Avoiding outright bans of fossil fuel use seems both effective to increase acceptance among building owners and reasonable to account for particularly demanding cases of boiler replacement (for which there is no technically or financially viable, fully renewable solution). Considering the very low carbon footprint of its electricity supply, Switzerland is a particularly convincing case for the transition from fossil fuel boilers to electric heat pumps. This is shown by means of an analysis of the CO2 emissions of heat pumps in comparison to gas and oil boilers across several European countries. We then compare the levelised cost of heat pumps for different subsidy levels. For a typical subsidy for the heat pump (equivalent to 11% of the investment cost), its levelised cost remains in an acceptable range compared to a gas boiler (7% more expensive). A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of high gas to electricity price ratios for financial viability. Evidence from leading cantons in Switzerland indicates that the chosen policy measures are effective, affordable and accepted and that they can be recommended to other countries.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Americans’ Shifting Views on Energy Issues, Brian Kennedy and Emma Kukuchi, Pew Research Center
The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say the country should prioritize oil, coal and natural gas over wind and solar power has doubled to 71% over the last six years. Majorities of Republicans see wind and solar power as less reliable than other energy sources, and decreasing shares of Republicans say wind and solar energy is better for the environment. An overwhelming majority of Democrats continue to prioritize wind and solar power and say the federal government should encourage their development.
INNOVATION INTERRUPTED: The Lasting Impact of Grant Terminations and Freezes at the U.S. Department of Energy, Tarak Shah,, US. Department of Energy Alumni Network
The scale of terminations and funding at risk is massive: DOE has announced the termination of 356 awards since January 2025, totaling $12.5 billion in federal funding. It has also threatened to terminate an additional 303 awards worth $12.2 billion. This action is part of a larger pattern of disruption that includes freezing projects at stage gates, not finalizing conditional awards, and reducing new solicitations, which puts Congressional goals for our energy sector, infrastructure, and domestic manufacturing at risk. Long Term Repercussions Exist for U.S. Energy Innovation: DOE’s actions profoundly undermine the reliability of federal grants as a mechanism for achieving national energy goals. This disruption has created deep uncertainty among private sector partners, with some awardees stating they will no longer pursue future DOE funding, posing a long-term risk to domestic energy innovation and deployment.
62 articles in 41 journals by 602 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Combined Impacts of ENSO and Arctic Sea Ice on North American Climate, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0469.1
Global Observational Estimates of Thermohaline Transformations by Interior Ocean Mixing, Castro et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-25-0265.1
What the Iran conflict means for gas prices, clean energy, and the climate
Posted on 8 April 2026 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
The U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran have sent oil and gas prices soaring. That could be a boon to cheap, clean technologies like electric vehicles, solar power, and wind – at least in the long run. But in the short run, the outlook is more complicated.
Why is the conflict causing oil and gas prices to spike?
Iran began restricting ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, 2026. The strait is the narrow passage, about 20 to 40 miles wide, through which ships must navigate from the Persian Gulf to reach the Arabian Sea and global shipping routes.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationBehind the strait lie five of the world’s 10 biggest oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Kuwait. Despite efforts to shift some of these countries’ oil exports through pipelines and to allow Iran’s own oil tankers safe passage, International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol estimated that the war has caused the global oil supply to drop by more than 10%. His organization described it as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”
As a result, global oil prices have risen by $40 per barrel since the start of the conflict. Gasoline prices have followed suit, with the U.S. national average surpassing $4 per gallon on the final day of March, up more than a dollar from pre-conflict prices. It’s the third spike in fossil fuel prices in just the past five years, following COVID supply chain disruptions in 2021 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. (left axis, brown; data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration) and West Texas intermediate oil price (right axis, black; data also from the EIA). (Graphic: Dana Nuccitelli)
And fossil fuel prices are likely to rise further. Countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, and some oil tankers were already en route to their destinations when the conflict began, but the amount of lost oil production in the Middle East has now surpassed those numbers. Parts of Asia and Africa are beginning to experience fuel shortages, and Europe could follow suit as soon as this month. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled that the end of the conflict is not contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Fact brief - Do wind turbines utilize land for electricity generation more efficiently than fossil fuels?
Posted on 7 April 2026 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Do wind turbines utilize land for electricity generation more efficiently than fossil fuels?
Wind turbines require less land use for the same amount of energy generated by oil or natural gas, and land between turbines is available for agriculture and wildlife habitats.
Some sources report larger footprints by ignoring space between turbines, or expanding the area of a wind farm based on whether turbines are visible in the distance. In reality, according to Princeton University, land occupied by wind in a U.S. net-zero emissions plan would have a footprint between 10-30% of the 8 million acres currently occupied by natural gas and oil operations.
Cultivated and wild plant life can safely grow, and terrestrial animals safely roam, up to a turbine’s base. Turbines on farmland take up only 5% of the project area, with the remaining land available for other purposes.
Compared to the widespread spills, soil and water contamination, and warming impacts of fossil fuels, wind produces significantly less environmental disruption.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
Princeton University Net-Zero America
Bloomberg The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy
The Electricity Journal Renewable Energy's ‘Footprint’ Myth
ScienceDaily Clearing the air: Wind farms more land efficient than previously thought
World Resources Institute How Wind Turbines Are Providing a Safety Net for Rural Farmers
U.S. Department of Energy WindVision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States
EESI Fact Sheet | Climate, Environmental, and Health Impacts of Fossil Fuels (2021)
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!
Our new research is published - but we're not done yet with the 'Experiment'
Posted on 6 April 2026 by John Cook, BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, dana1981
13 years ago the Skeptical Science team ran a research project to quantify scientific consensus on global warming, finding that 97% of relevant climate papers agreed that humans were causing global warming. We put a call out for contributions to help us cover the cost of the journal publication fee. And we reached this goal within 9 hours! The paper went on to be tweeted by President Obama the day after publication, and was cited by Prime Ministers, Senators, Congresspeople, and late night TV comedians, not to mention winning awards and being downloaded over 1.5 million times. Not bad for a crowd-funded research paper!
Today in 2026 we’re now delighted to announce that the Skeptical Science team has just published our results from a new research project, in Geoscience Communication. Our culminating peer-reviewed research report (Cook et al. 2026) represents years of careful data collection and analysis, and is a critical step in providing real-world evidence for effective climate communication.
Screenshot of the abstract from our paper published in Geoscience Communication (Cook et al. 2026).
Quantifying the Impact of Skeptical Science Rebuttals in Reducing Climate Misperceptions.
We designed our study to assess the real-world effectiveness of Skeptical Science's 250+ rebuttals in reducing acceptance of climate myths and increasing acceptance of climate facts.
Over a period spanning from November 2021 to July 2025, we conducted a field experiment by collecting survey data from visitors directly on our skepticalscience.com website. Specifically, visitors who arrived at a rebuttal from a Google search in the US, UK, or Australia were invited to participate. You may even have been among readers seeing the related screens!
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #14
Posted on 5 April 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)
- `Very alarming` winter sees Arctic sea ice hit record-low for second year running The biggest distinctly continues to get smaller in the Arctic, as maximum ice extent for this past winter follows a downward trend caused by a warming planet. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Mar 27, 2026.
- Fire season fears grow amid western heat wave CNN, Andrew Freedman, Mar 27, 2026.
- As a mind-boggling heat wave begins to wrap up, we look at some initial numbers "Over 1,500 new monthly records for March and over 500 tied monthly records with virtually no modern equivalent event in any month." The Eyewall, Matt Lanza, Mar 30, 2026.
- Oceans are absorbing the Earth’s excess energy. That’s bad news for food systems. "As the planet traps more energy than it releases, the pathways for global food production are being upended." Grist, Frida Garza, Mar 31, 2026.
- How wildfires and storms drove insurance losses in 2025 – in three charts "Extreme weather events around the world, such as wildfires and storms, were the major driver behind $107bn in insured losses in 2025, according to industry data." Carbon Brief, Multiple Authors, Mar 31, 2026.
- ‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists "Experts say brutal March heat has left critical snowpack at record-low levels – and key basins in uncharted territory" The Guardian, Gabrielle Canon, Apr 1, 2026.
- The 2026 Southwest U.S. heat wave was one of the six most astonishing weather events of the century "From the Pacific Northwest to Antarctica, it’s extraordinary warmth that’s punching through climate norms with the most force." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters & Bob Henson, Apr 3, 2026.
- From early birds to emerging butterflies: UK shows signs of earliest spring on record Citizen science data reveals early flowering, nesting and insect activity as global heating accelerate seasonal change World news The Guardian, Patrick Barkham, Apr 04, 2026.
Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)
- Vermont Hits Back at Trump’s Effort to Block ‘Climate Superfund’ Law "The law would make fuel companies help pay for damages caused by climate change. The administration argues it’s unconstitutional." The New York Times, Mar 30, 2026, Karen Zraick , Mar 30, 2026.
- The Trump Administration’s New Biofuels Targets Threaten Carbon-Rich Rainforests "The U.S. doesn’t have enough bio-based diesel to meet the administration’s new mandate, so blenders will have to import yet more foreign crop-based oils." Inside Climate News, Georgina Gustin, Mar 31, 2026.
- Trump’s Iran war and drilling push show ‘dangerous volatility’ of fossil fuel era "Critics say president is locking into 20th-century energy systems even as his ‘bet’ on oil and gas ‘isn’t going so well’ " The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Mar 31, 2026.
- What the Iran conflict means for gas prices, clean energy, and the climate "U.S. gas prices could hit $7 a gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted through June. Here’s how that could affect EVs, wind, and solar." Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nuccitelli, Apr 1, 2026.
- ‘Like relying on a drug dealer:’ The world’s dependence on oil and gas has exposed a dangerous vulnerability CNN, Laura Paddison & Ella Nilsen, Apr 2, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #14 2026
Posted on 2 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon, Burke et al., Nature
Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative estimates, a single long-haul flight per year over the past decade leads to about $25k ($6,000–77,000) in future damages by 2100, and US emissions since 1990 caused $500 billion ($180–1,300 billion) of damage in India and $330 billion ($110–820 billion) in Brazil. Carbon removal offers an alternative to transfer payments for settling L&D, but is increasingly ineffective in limiting damages as the delay between emission and recapture increases.
Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming, Nian et al., Communications Earth & Environment
The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could profoundly impact regional and global climates, yet its effects on the carbon cycle and subsequently global temperature remain seriously underexplored. Here we quantify carbon cycle responses across different background global warming levels using a fast Earth system model. We find that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse increases atmospheric carbon dioxide by 47–83 ppm carbon dioxide, leading to around 0.2 °C of additional global warming at higher carbon dioxide background levels after offsetting ocean-dynamics-driven cooling. Despite the modest global warming effect, regional temperature anomalies are pronounced: Arctic temperatures cool by ~ 7 °C (60 °N–90 °N), while Antarctic temperatures warm by ~ 6 °C (60 °S–90 °S). This latter response originates from deep convection triggered in the Southern Ocean, which ventilates deep carbon-rich waters. Such long-term equilibrium responses reveal key physical and carbon-cycle mechanisms and highlight substantial regional climate risks associated with an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse.
Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring, Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., Nature Communications
Heat stress limits for human survivability have been previously defined by a 6-hour exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of 35oC. However, the recently developed physiology-based HEAT-Lim model demonstrates that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought. We employ HEAT-Lim to determine whether non-survivable thresholds were surpassed during six historical events where conditions were climatologically extreme and/or high heat-related mortality was reported. Our results show that non-survivable conditions are occurring during present-day heat events, all of which are below 35oC wet-bulb temperature. Of concern is regular exceedances of deadly thresholds for older people directly exposed across all events. Moreover, extremely hot yet dry conditions are found to be just as deadly as hot and humid conditions. For future climatological assessments, we emphasise the importance of employing increasingly accurate physiology-derived methods to assess the risk of potentially deadly heat stress.
The “Nuclear Energy Paradox”- Investigating nuclear imaginaries in energy projections, Böse et al., Energy Research & Social Science
Current energy projections often envision an expansion of nuclear capacities to decarbonize future energy systems. However, this contrasts with the historic and current status of the nuclear industry, marked by techno-economic challenges for both light-water and non-light-water reactor technologies. Regardless, projections of strong nuclear growth have persisted since the 1970s. This paper investigates the “nuclear energy paradox” which shows the recurring divergence between historical projections and actual developments. A data compilation of long-term energy projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC, reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power. Such projections often rest on techno-economic assumptions such as substantial cost reductions. We propose the concept of nuclear imaginaries to show that these assumptions are embedded into techno-economic visions of nuclear power development, which shape model assumptions and narratives. The historic perspective helps to show that nuclear imaginaries may never materialize and remain in a hypothetical state for decades. Our findings support decision-makers in making more informed decisions and urge for caution when interpreting energy scenarios and projections, especially for nuclear power.
Climate denial and the classroom: a review, Kutney, Geoscience Communication
Climate change awareness is floundering across the globe despite climate change education being embedded in international treaties to address the climate crisis – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and the subsequent Paris Agreement. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledges forces hostile to climate awareness and education – namely, climate denial sponsored by the energy-industrial complex. Climate change is studied by the physical sciences, but climate denial is the purview of the social sciences; the latter has revealed the why and how of climate denial. Climate-denial organizations (which directly deny aspects of the scientific consensus on climate change) and the related petro-pedagogy groups (which teach that oil is a benefactor to humanity, but say little about the connection of fossil fuels to the climate crisis) have arisen to attempt to interfere with the teaching of the science of climate change in school classrooms. These organizations were found in the United States, Canada, and some European nations (this review is mainly restricted to English-language sources). This review aims to (1) provide an overview of climate denial, promoted and funded by the energy-industrial complex; (2) identify and examine organizations involved in climate denial in schools; (3) summarize the strategies of climate-denial organizations in school classrooms; and (4) put forward recommendations for further research and action.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Trump Administration Actions to Curtail Offshore Wind Energy Development Meet Judicial Resistance, Adam Vann, Congressional Research Service
In 2025 the Trump Administration took a number of actions that could affect the continued development and use of renewable energy resources, especially offshore wind energy projects. These actions, which include orders halting the development or operation of individual projects, have resulted in numerous lawsuits. Several courts have ruled that the suspension orders and other executive actions announcing or implementing the Administration's offshore wind policies are unlawful, and the Department of the Interior (DOI) has indicated its intent to appeal those rulings. This Legal Sidebar provides an overview of the legal framework governing offshore wind energy development, discusses the Trump Administration's recent actions and related litigation, and identifies considerations for Congress.
Building A Heat Resilience Roadmap for the Gulf Region, Leigh Mante, Observer Research Foundation
The escalating heat challenge facing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will only worsen in the coming years. As they rapidly urbanize and diversify their economies towards non-oil activities, the urban heat island effect intensifies too, increasing demand for cooling. All these will continue to strain electricity grids and increase carbon emissions, propelling the region into a dangerous cycle of rising temperatures. Addressing the mounting risks of extreme heat is therefore an imperative for the Gulf’s long-term economic prosperity. The author explores the impacts of extreme heat across the region’s health, labor, supply chains, and infrastructure; analyses the GCC’s anticipatory heat policies and responsive sustainable cooling and climate-resilient adaptation policies; identifies key policy gaps; and offers feasible pathways to build a strategic heat resilience roadmap.
87 articles in 48 journals by 505 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Arctic sea ice loss shifting from edge to interior increases cold surges in mid-latitude Asia, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108944
Circulation of Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay waters on the Labrador shelf and into the subpolar North Atlantic, Duyck et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-21-241-2025
The ski industry is oddly quiet on climate change
Posted on 1 April 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk
s of this writing, every river basin across the entire Western U.S. has below-average snow. Colorado, Utah, Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada – the workplaces of thousands of ski area employees like me – are sitting at 15 to 65% of average snowpack for this time of year. Some ski areas closed in the middle of the season, and others decided to close early this year. Many cut employee hours.
“This year was a catastrophic year,” said Auden Schendler, who shepherded the Aspen Ski Company’s sustainability program for 26 years.
Winter enthusiasts know that bad years happen. But “in a climate-changed world, you’re more likely to see multiple years of aberration stacked together,” Schendler said.
Many mountain communities rely on winter sports as the centerpiece of their economies and way of life. As the climate warms and snow becomes increasingly unreliable, skiing and snowboarding are on thin ice.
But surprisingly, the snowsports industry has not mounted an aggressive campaign for climate action.
Ski areas have taken some steps to trim their climate pollution, but a Yale Climate Connections analysis of a recent report shows that their efforts don’t match the scale or urgency of the threat posed by climate change.
And even as the industry publicizes its sustainability programs, “none of it had anything to do with solving a global systemic problem like climate change,” Schendler said.
The controversy over deep-sea mining, explained
Posted on 31 March 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Rachel Ramirez
or Solomon Pili Kaho’ohalahala, a Native Hawaiian elder known as “Uncle Sol” from the island of Lana’i, the ocean is his lifeline. Over the past few years, he has become the voice of a growing Indigenous movement demanding a moratorium on deep-sea mining, which President Donald Trump has labeled an “urgent matter of national security,” but islanders see as a threat to their home, their food supply, and their way of life.
“We are oceanic people; this is our home,” said Kaho’ohalahala, 75, who like his ancestors grew up as a hunter, gatherer, and fisherman in the Pacific Ocean.
As international regulators scramble to codify the rules, countries like the U.S., Japan, and China are moving to carve up the seafloor’s most mineral-rich areas. More than 40 countries have formally called for a moratorium against deep-sea mining in international waters, with four U.S. states – Hawai’i, Washington, Oregon, and California – already enacting bans.
Kaho’ohalahala has been bringing Indigenous perspectives to the international stage, urging regulators to see the ocean as more than a ledger.
“For them, it’s just a money deal,” he said. “It’s not about the resources, it’s not about people, and it’s not about a vision for the long-term needs of our children yet unborn.”
The rush to mine the ocean floor is being sold as part of a green solution, but for the Pacific, the ecological and cultural costs are staggering. Here’s how the process works and why the controversy is deepening.
What is deep-sea mining?
Proponents argue that deep-sea mining is a new industrial frontier vital to acquiring the metals needed for the renewable energy transition, along with everything from smartphones to missile systems to artificial intelligence. It involves extracting critical minerals like cobalt and nickel from the deepest parts of the ocean. The latest techniques involve dredging or vacuuming the seafloor using large, robotic equipment.
Commercial mining has yet to begin, but exploration is underway. Tens of thousands of residents from U.S. territories have already signed a petition calling for a moratorium.
How do deep-sea miners operate?
Mining the deep seas requires lowering massive machinery into the abyssal plains, as deep as 6,000 meters beneath the waves – the depth of nearly 15 Empire State buildings. These machines scrape, suck, and dredge the seabed to collect mineral deposits, which can be polymetallic sulfides or deposits that form around underwater volcanic openings or mud rich in rare earth elements.
The sought-after deposits are the potato-sized, polymetallic nodules rich in critical minerals like cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese. Machines then lift the harvest up to a vessel on the ocean’s surface, where collectors separate the nodules from unwanted sediment that is dumped back into the ocean.
Every polymetallic nodule starts as a hard fragment on the ocean floor, like a fossilized shark tooth or a volcanic rock. Over millions of years, dissolved metals – fine bits of manganese, iron, nickel, and cobalt that have washed into the sea from rivers or leaked out of underwater volcanoes – settle and build up on each fragment. It’s such an incredibly slow process that by the time a nodule is the size of a potato, it may be 10 million years old.
A polymetallic nodule that contains manganese. (Image credit: Rachel Ramirez)
Using a 20-year period for comparing methane to CO2 is a terrible idea
Posted on 30 March 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Imagine if I told you that the damages from climate change next year are worth 12% less to me than climate damages today. And 12% less the year after that. That the harms from climate change on people alive in the year 2100 are only worth one fiftieth as much as impacts on people this year. You’d probably call me selfish, heartless, or a similar slew of invectives, and rightly insist that the welfare of future generations should not be sacrificed for my short term benefit.
But a somewhat obscure climate policy choice of how to value methane emissions compared to CO2 is doing just that – and unfortunately a number of climate scientists who should know better are defending it.
The broader context is a big fight at the moment over proposed revisions to New York’s state climate law. Governor Hochul is proposing both delaying the implementation of the law (which in my opinion is not a good thing), and changing the way that methane is treated by using a 100-year timeframe rather than a 20-year one. It is my opinion as a climate scientist that using a 20-year timeframe is deeply problematic – and I’m far from the only one in the community with that view. In this piece I’ll try and explain why.
Stocks and flows
To understand why the timeline over which methane is compared to CO2 matters, we first need to understand the different climate effects of the two gases. I’ve written about this at some length in the past, but here is a short summary.
Methane is relatively short-lived, with a lifetime of around 10 years. But while it is in the atmosphere it has a very strong climate effect, trapping on the order of 100x more heat than CO2 for every ton. Methane is short-lived because it oxidizes in the atmosphere, breaking down into CO2 and H2O through a long chain of chemical reactions catalyzed by interactions with OH radicals.
CO2, by contrast, is extremely long-lived. The mean atmospheric lifetime is on the order of 10,000 years, though this is dominated by a very long (~400k year) tail associated with silicate weathering. On shorter timescale around 60% of a pulse of emissions is absorbed by land and ocean carbon sinks (though the strength of these may change as a result of our changing climate).
These different lifetimes mean that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere over longer timeframes, while CO2 does. Methane is a “flow pollutant”, in that its climate effect is a function of the rate of emissions, while CO2 is a “stock pollutant” whose impacts are a function of cumulative emissions.
If emissions of methane increase, we get warming. If they stay flat, their temperature effect is constant, while if they decline we get cooling. CO2 emissions, on the other hand, always warm the planet. Increasing CO2 emissions cause warming to speed up, flat CO2 emissions cause steady warming, and decreasing CO2 emissions slow (but do not stop) warming. The only way to get cooling with CO2 is to actively remove past emissions from the atmosphere.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13
Posted on 29 March 2026 by BaerbelW, John Hartz, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (10 articles)
- ‘Pushing extremes to new levels’: Record US heat dome made possible by climate change "‘Insurers walking away’ is the clearest sign unpredictable weather extremes are spiralling out of control, one expert says." AP/Euronewsdotcom, Angela Symons, Mar 20, 2026.
- Record-torching March heat ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change "Friday’s spring equinox may seem like a quaint notion to those already enduring furnace-like 90-110°F summer heat." Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters & Bob Henson, Mar 20, 2026.
- Extreme heat continues to strike Southwest US and even Nebraska needs a cold drink AP News, Staff, Mar 21, 2026.
- Earth’s climate swings increasingly out of balance World Meteorololgical Organization (WMO), Staff, Mar 23, 2026.
- Mind-blowing March heat wave crests; records melt from Arizona to Minnesota Fourteen states have set all-time March heat records, and the U.S.-wide record was tied or beaten on four consecutive days. Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, Mar 23, 2026.
- Past CO2 emissions may drive far bigger future economic losses Study identifies how CO2 emissions can pencil out as positive economic assets for some but turn into much larger economic deficits for others— leading to a net loss for all. Phys.org, Stephanie Baum, Mar 25, 2026.
- Winter Sea Ice in the Arctic Ties a Record Low Ice plays a vital role in reflecting away planet-warming sunlight. The Arctic is warming much faster than most other parts of the world. New York Times, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey and Harry Stevens, Mar 26, 2026.
- This Year`s US Wildfires Have Already Set Records That Could Foreshadow a Smoky, Fiery Summer Recently released data show how drought, paltry Western snows and unseasonable heat, all exacerbated by climate change, could be priming the nation for a long wildfire season. Inside Climate News, Jake Bolster, Mar 27, 2026.
- Global maps show alien plant invasion hotspots shifting poleward Phys.org, University of Vienna, Mar 27, 2026.
- Arctic sea ice hits lowest winter level as heat records are shattered worldwide Vital Arctic sea ice shrank to basically tie its lowest measured level for the winter, the season when ice grows, as a warming Earth shattered records across the continents. CBS News, Staff, Mar 27, 2026.
Health Aspects of Climate Change (4 articles)
- Scientist issues warning about common household threat linked to 4 million deaths each year "If progress slows, the burden will continue to fall most heavily on the places least able to bear it." The Cool Down (TCD), Tina Deines, Mar 21, 2026.
- Global Warming Could Cause 700,000 Early Deaths by 2050 Seoul Economic Daily, Seo Ji-hye, Mar 22, 2026.
- Climate-Fueled Wildfires and Dust Storms Drove Up Air Pollution Around the World Last Year A new report shows air pollution threatens the majority of the world’s population, while information gaps increase the risks. Inside Climate News, Kiley Bense & Keerti Gopal, Mar 24, 2026.
- The frantic, high-tech fight to stop climate-fueled dengue fever Scientists in Brazil and Peru may have found a way to beat mosquitoes at their own game. The U.S. may soon need to do the same. Grist, Zoya Teirstein, Mar 25, 2026.
