Arguments
Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".
Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2026
Posted on 6 August 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
‘Towards electric vehicle misinformation communities: Shared narratives, networked validation, and reassurance among Australian consumers, McEwen et al., Energy Research & Social Science
Electric vehicles (EVs) provide a pathway to sustainable transport systems. Yet public understanding of EVs is shaped by contested information environments in which misinformation circulates alongside facts. Existing EV misinformation research has largely focused on individual EV beliefs, attitudes, and information deficits. However, less is known about how EV misinformation becomes socially meaningful in everyday life. Drawing on qualitative ethnographic data from 122 Australian consumers, we introduce the concept of EV misinformation communities to help interpret how participants share narratives and engage in social interactions and everyday sense-making practices relating to misinformation about EVs across online and offline settings. Our analysis explores how EV misinformation becomes socially meaningful through symbolic framing, networked validation, and reassurance. We suggest that countering EV misinformation requires socio-cultural understanding of people's ideologies, dispositions and circumstances, and recognition of the value and sense of shared experiences that misinformation provides. Policy and programme interventions to accelerate the transition to EVs should seek to foster community through opportunities for creating positive value and shared experiences in addition to the provision of information.
Managing climate overshoot: a risk-based strategy for climate stabilisation, Taylor et al., Frontiers in Climate
Global warming is accelerating, yet current climate strategies centred on emissions reduction and carbon removal are unlikely to prevent temperatures from crossing dangerous tipping points. Although essential, these approaches operate too slowly to counter near-term warming driven by Earth’s growing energy imbalance, weakening carbon sinks, and amplifying climate feedbacks. This mismatch reflects systemic shortcomings in climate risk assessment that underestimate nonlinear risks and the escalating costs of delay. We argue that climate stabilisation should be treated as a risk-management challenge rather than an incremental policy process. This requires explicit comparison of intervention risks with those of continued warming. We outline a comparative risk–risk framework that integrates mitigation, carbon removal, and cooling interventions, and suggests that a viable strategy may require combining rapid decarbonisation and expanded carbon removal with carefully governed cooling interventions to limit near-term warming. Without aligning response timelines with accelerating climate threats, the likelihood of irreversible Earth-system disruption will continue to grow.
Ecological Transformations of Coastal Wetlands of the Conterminous United States in Response to Contemporaneous Sea-Level Rise, Neville et al., Earth s Future
Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly uncertain. Here, we synthesize surface elevation table marker-horizon data from 442 stations in coastal wetlands across the conterminous United States to evaluate if they are largely persisting in the face of accelerated SLR, or if they are undergoing ecological transformations of submergence and/or migration. Across the conterminous United States, 11% of coastal wetlands in this sample are on a trajectory of submergence whereas 73% of sites are lagging SLR, but may be able to migrate upslope, and 16% of sites are gaining elevation at rates which exceed SLR indicating persistence and an ability to migrate seaward. Vulnerability of these systems to ecological transformation varies across the three coasts of the conterminous United States which, span large biogeomorphic gradients. These results serve as one of the first national syntheses of coastal wetland elevation trends and may help focus conservation and restoration efforts in a rapidly changing future.
Long-Term Trends in the Ionospheric Equivalent Slab Thickness as a Proxy of Climate Change in the Ionosphere, Pignalberi & Alberti, Geophysical Research Letters
Anthropogenic greenhouse emissions do not affect all parts of Earth's atmosphere in the same way. While the lower atmosphere warms, the upper atmosphere is expected to cool and contract, and this may also change the ionosphere, the region containing charged particles (plasma). In this study, we analyzed nearly three decades of observations from three stations spanning equatorial to high latitudes. We focused on ionospheric equivalent slab thickness, a quantity that measures how broadly plasma is distributed around the main ionospheric peak. We found that slab thickness generally decreases over time, although the strength of the decrease is neither spatially uniform nor equally detectable at all latitudes. We then linked these changes to the plasma scale height, which controls how fast plasma density decreases with altitude. The results show that the ionospheric profile is becoming narrower with time, especially at middle and high latitudes. This suggests that long-term climate-related changes in the upper atmosphere are also affecting the vertical structure of ionospheric plasma.
Disrupted Skies: How Offshore Wind Farms Alter Flight Behavior of Breeding Seabirds, Liang et al., Ecology and Evolution
Offshore wind farms are expanding rapidly as part of global climate mitigation efforts, but their effects on seabird movement behavior remain incompletely understood. While collision risk has received substantial attention, less is known about how turbines may alter flight routes through evasive behavior and meso-avoidance, particularly near breeding colonies where repeated commuting flights may accumulate energetic costs. We investigated flight responses of breeding Bridled Terns (Onychoprion anaethetus) to offshore wind turbines near their colony using high-resolution satellite tracking data collected at 1-s intervals and lower-resolution data collected at 1-h intervals. We quantified within-trajectory flight traits, including mean redirection, number of turns, flight speed, and flight altitude, in relation to turbine exposure. We assessed avoidance using both proximity-based and direction-sensitive metrics. At the near-colony scale, we tested whether flight behavior changed with increasing alignment between the trajectory bearing and turbine bearing from the colony. At the broader breeding-range scale, we tested whether behavior differed inside and outside wind farms or with distance to turbines, while accounting for colony distance, wind, and landscape variables. Bridled Terns showed increased mean redirection and lower flight altitude when trajectories were more closely aligned with turbine directions from the colony, suggesting localized route alteration in obstacle-facing directions. However, flight behavior was not significantly associated with turbine proximity, nor did it differ significantly inside and outside wind farms. These findings suggest that offshore wind farms may influence seabird movement through localized, direction-dependent route alteration rather than simple distance-dependent responses, highlighting the value of movement-context metrics and within-trajectory traits in wind farm impact assessments.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Interim heat mortality monitoring report, England: May and June 2026, UK Health Security Agency
During the May and June 2026 heat events there were an estimated total of 2,877 heat-associated deaths, an estimated 753 heat-associated deaths occurred during the May heat episode; an estimated 2,124 heat-associated deaths occurred during the June heat episode, and the mortality burden is already close to the highest annual totals previously recorded by UKHSA. Although these estimates remain provisional and are subject to revision as more complete mortality data becomes available, the magnitude of the impact is already comparable with some of the highest annual heat-associated mortality estimates previously reported through UKHSA’s heat mortality monitoring programme. For context, UKHSA estimated 2,295 heat-associated deaths during the whole of summer 2023, 1,311 during summer 2024 and 1,504 during summer 2025. The highest annual estimate recorded to date remains summer 2022, when 2,985 heat-associated deaths were observed across 5 heat episodes.
Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain, World Weather Attribution
The authors perform a super rapid analysis of trends in fire-conducive weather conditions in the two affected areas in France and Spain, analyzing observations only. In both study regions observations show strong trends of increasing likelihood and severity with global warming.
99 articles in 50 journals by 827 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Climate modes synergistically influence marine heatwaves in the North Sea, Lin et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2287-2026
New Mexico’s clean energy success story
Posted on 5 August 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk
It’s hot. Fans and air conditioners are humming in homes, offices, commercial buildings, and factories. July is the most electricity-intensive time of year in the U.S., and the grid is working hard to keep up.
In many places, high electricity demand equals high pollution. That used to be true in New Mexico, but the state’s electricity supply flipped from majority climate-warming fossil fuels to majority renewables in just five years. Spurred by an ambitious clean energy law called the Energy Transition Act, utilities have been busy building solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and transmission lines. A major coal plant was retired and demolished. Solar panels proliferated on homes, schools, and businesses.
And even while New Mexico was building out its clean energy future, electricity prices remained cheaper than average.
A case study in cleaner electricity
New Mexico’s largest utility is the Public Service Company of New Mexico, or PNM. Only five years ago, most of PNM’s cooling needs were met by coal and gas, which made up 83% of its electricity generation in July 2021.
But the state’s abundant sunshine now provides much of the region’s electricity.
The golden line on the graph below shows grid-scale solar energy production in PNM’s territory every day for a week. The sun generated 41% of the total electricity the week of July 6, when I did this analysis.
Is Europe having a bad wildfire year?
Posted on 4 August 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from By the Numbers by Hannah Ritchie
Over the last week, this chart of wildfire burn in Europe has been doing the rounds on social media and traditional media outlets. Carbon Brief goes through some of this coverage here.
The underlying narrative is that Europe is having its lowest wildfire year on record, which is quite at odds with the huge wildfires we see from France and Spain on the news.
But this data and the media headlines are not as contradictory as they first appear.
The wildfire data we present on Our World in Data comes from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). This uses satellite imagery, which doesn’t distinguish, for example, between forest fires and large-scale burning of agricultural land, grasslands, or savannah.
Its aggregate category “Europe” includes Russia. On OWID, we also have predefined regions across our datasets, and Russia falls under “Europe”.
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026
Posted on 3 August 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Jim Hansen and I have spent much of this year making seemingly opposite predictions about where 2026 will end up in the global temperature record books. He has argued since the spring that 2026 will be the warmest year on record; I have made the case that it is more likely than not to end up in second place. And in a recent post he framed our disagreement in memorably equine terms:
Based on this scientific evidence, we expect that when the horse race comes down the stretch, in November and December of this year, we will be riding a thoroughbred, a strong young horse, and Zeke will be atop a fading old nag.
For the record, I am the fading old nag in this metaphor. I have been called worse.
But here is the fun part: when the race comes down the final stretch at the end of 2026, there is a good chance we will both be declared winners. Hansen’s prediction is about NASA’s GISTEMP record specifically. Mine is about the average across the major surface temperature datasets. And when I run my own forecast model separately on each of six datasets, it gives GISTEMP a ~65% chance of a new 2026 record even as the multi-dataset average only has a ~32% chance and is likely to come in second place.
First, where my forecast stands. Back in December I projected 2026 at 1.41C (1.27C to 1.55C) above preindustrial levels, and in early June I revised that up to 1.46C (1.36C to 1.59C) as forecast models converged on a doozy of an El Niño developing in the latter half of the year. Hansen, via the Washington Post, cited my June estimate of a 26.6% chance that 2026 sets a new record.
That number has continued to creep up. With observations through June and the latest El Niño forecast ensemble, my current central estimate for 2026 is 1.50C (1.44C to 1.57C) above the 1850-1900 baseline in the average of six surface temperature datasets.1 That translates into a ~32% chance that 2026 beats 2024’s record, a ~66% chance it comes in second, and almost no chance (<2%) it falls to third or below. The figure below shows where those projections sit against the observational record.
Here we see 2026 sitting just below the 2024 record line, with 2027 well above it. So the horse race (to continue the metaphor) is drifting in Hansen’s direction, though still short of the finish line. In the average of all the groups reporting global surface temperatures, second warmest remains my central call for 2026.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
Posted on 2 August 2026 by Sue Bin Park
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)
- State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026 Chances of a record setting 2026 El Niño rapidly increase, taking us closer to an important warming threshold. Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 24, 2026.
- Why is Germany building roads for yesterday's climate? As the Autobahn buckles under heat waves, Germany is still paving roads for a past climate. Engineers know how to fix that — so what's the holdup? DW, Tim Schauenberg, Jul 28, 2026.
- Summer of Heat, Fires and Storms Is a Reckoning for Europe on Climate Europe is experiencing some of its biggest fires and highest temperatures ever; residents are fleeing, leaders are struggling to respond and “it will get worse,” one climate expert said. NYT, Mark Landler and Chico Harlan, Jul 29, 2026.
- `The heat took him from me`: India`s death toll rises amid escalating heat crisis As extreme heat claims the lives of workers in India’s poorest areas, many fear the true mortality rate is being dangerously undercounted. The Guardian, Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Aakash Hassan, Jul 29, 2026.
- 4 things to know about cyclospora and climate change A fragile food system, uneven public health messaging, and global warming are all working to supercharge the parasite’s spread. Grist, Frida Garza, Jul 30, 2026.
- `Was this heatwave caused by climate change?` - we`re asking the wrong question The question is not whether climate change caused the heatwave, but how much hotter and more dangerous heatwaves have become because greenhouse gases, primarily from burning fossil fuels, have accumulated in the atmosphere. The Conversation, Prof. Haley J. Fowler & Prof. Ed Hawkins, Jul 31, 2026.
- Everything on fire DrGilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 31, 2026.
Climate Science and Research (6 articles)
- Human-driven climate change largely responsible for last 50 years of worsening fire weather in Western North America, new study shows Just as detectives can find literal fingerprints at a crime scene, scientists can detect human and natural ‘fingerprints’ in climate and meteorological data like temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity— all factors that can influence fire behavior. Science Feedback, Science Feedback team, May 8, 2025.
- How do scientists know if climate change made a heat wave, extreme storm or wildfire worse? When a devastating heat wave, hurricane, flood or wildfire strikes, people often want to know: How much did human-caused climate change influence this event, if at all? The Conversation, Kevin T. Smiley, Deepti Singh, Jennifer Marlon, Jim Hurrell, Jul 24, 2026.
- Low-Level Cloud Loss Amplifies Global Warming A new study adds weight to concerns over the positive feedback effects of clouds on global warming. CalTech, Katie Neith, Jul 24, 2026.
- Canopy-mediated climate feedbacks in the boreal continuous permafrost zone A vast amount of carbon locked up in permafrost is protected by a thin and increasingly threatened layer of vegetation. Nature Climate Change, M. Langer, Jul 27, 2026.
- Rising CO2 Alters Upper Atmosphere Response to Stratosphere Sudden Warming A whole-atmosphere model simulation shows that rising CO2 changes how the upper atmosphere and ionosphere respond to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), with implications for future space weather.? Eos, Huixin Liu, Jul 29, 2026.
- Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 30, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31 2026
Posted on 30 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Observed Multi-Decadal Acceleration of Globally Averaged Abyssal Ocean Warming, Johnson, Geophysical Research Letters
Given sparse historical data in the deep and abyssal ocean, previously only multi-decadal temperature trends have been estimated from observations there on a global scale. Full-depth CTD sampling started circa 1970, with the first decadal global ship-based survey occupied in the 1990s, and the first regional pilot array of Deep Argo floats started circa 2016. Here we fit second-order polynomial functions versus time to all available full-depth CTD profile temperature data in local spatial bins to estimate changes in the rates of these multi-decadal temperature trends. We find a statistically significant increase of the heating rate of the abyssal (4,000–6,000 dbar) ocean, from 5.4 (±4.9) TW in 1988 to 20.2 (±3.9) TW in 2018. In contrast, we find no statistically significant change in the heating rate of the deep ocean, estimated at 29.4 (±22.1) TW in 1988 and 25.0 (±17.5) TW in 2018.
High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds, Chammas et al., Science Advances
Uncertainty in marine low-level cloud feedbacks limits accurate climate projections. Using 7083 high-resolution simulations of tropical Pacific low clouds, we separated the impacts of sea surface warming from direct carbon dioxide (CO2) effects. Surface warming alone drives a positive low-cloud feedback of 0.14Wm-2K-1. While this changes little with doubled CO2, the total cloud radiative response strengthens markedly to 0.43Wm-2K-1 under quadrupled CO2, revealing a strong nonlinear interaction. Surface warming alone modifies the boundary layer through increased inversion strength and weakened subsidence, which buffers clouds by promoting higher liquid water content while cloud fraction decreases. Rapid adjustments to high CO2 concentrations counteract this protective cloud thickening. Consequently, a pronounced reduction in cloud fraction is no longer offset by an increase in cloud brightness, markedly strengthening the total radiative response under quadrupled CO2. Ultimately, our results suggest that climate sensitivity is more state-dependent than often assumed.
Canopy-mediated climate feedbacks in the boreal continuous permafrost zone, Stuenzi et al., Nature Climate Change
Boreal forests, covering approximately a quarter of the continuous permafrost zone, store relatively modest aboveground carbon, but thermally protect vast soil organic carbon (SOC) pools. Here, using a process-based model to compare seasonal thaw depths under forested and bare-ground scenarios, we quantify distinct canopy thermal insulation capacities of deciduous needleleaf, evergreen needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf canopies on permafrost thermal dynamics. Canopy buffering maintains approximately 59 Pg of carbon in a frozen state, which equals 32% of the total forested permafrost carbon pool and far exceeds boreal biomass stocks (7–19 Pg). Canopy changes could mobilize this frozen SOC through gradual thaw (40 Pg) and rapid thermokarst collapse (19 Pg). While forest loss sacrifices biomass carbon stocks, resulting thaw would expose orders of magnitude more SOC from previously frozen reservoirs, revealing a critical asymmetry. Forest conservation strategies in continuous permafrost zones must account for canopy-mediated thermal protection of frozen SOC, which far exceeds its biomass carbon sequestration capacity.
The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change, Marshall et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we investigate: to what extent was this snow drought attributable to the climate change that has occurred since the pre-industrial period? We find that a snow drought this severe across the western United States was approximately 4.4 [95% CI: 2.6, 9.4] times more likely in the current climate than in the preindustrial period. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, the snow drought was approximately 14 times more likely [0.09, 4,300]. Given a projected increase in the frequency of snow droughts at least this severe in a moderately high emissions warming scenario, the lived experience of this event may help scientists, resource managers, and the public consider what western US snow might look like if greenhouse gas emissions are not aggressively reduced.
Feasibility of CO2 pipeline construction to enable gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removals: evidence from historical precedent, Roberts et al., Frontiers in Climate
In this analysis, we use the history of fossil fuel pipeline networks to assess the feasibility of rapidly building enough CO2 pipelines to enable gigaton-scale removals of CO2 from the Earth's atmosphere. We collect data on scenarios of CO2 pipeline construction, historical fossil fuel pipeline construction, and the historical context of this construction to answer four questions: (1) What length of pipeline network will be required to achieve the benchmarks of 1 Gt or 100 Mt of CO2 in 2050? (2) What have been the largest national and international fossil fuel pipeline buildouts achieved in a 25-year period? (3) Is it feasible to build enough CO2 pipelines to enable gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removals given these historical precedents? (4) Under what political, economic, and social circumstances have rapid pipeline build-outs occurred? We find that a pipeline network of roughly 8,000 km will be necessary to enable 100 Mt of carbon dioxide removal, and that roughly 100,000 km will be necessary for 1 Gt. There are 15 cases in the historical record of a country building 8,000 km of fossil fuel pipelines in 25 years, and only three cases of a country building 100,000km or more of pipelines in the same timescale. Rapid construction of fossil fuel pipelines has benefited from strong economic and institutional drivers, which may not apply to CO2 pipelines in the same way. Our findings are reason for caution about the likelihood of CO2 pipeline build outs keeping pace with CO2 removal targets.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Pay, Baby, Pay. Why Trump's Energy & AI Dominance Agenda Means Higher Bills For Everyone, Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International
U.S. wholesale fossil gas prices will likely double by the late 2030s relative to the 2020 to 2025 average if the Trump administration’s energy and AI policies succeed in pushing gas demand to levels that can only be met by more expensive gas production. Significant energy price volatility from 2020 to 2025 caused hardship in the U.S. and in LNG-importing countries, particularly in Asia and Europe. Costlier U.S. gas risks exacerbating the energy affordability crisis for U.S. and international consumers alike. The surge in gas demand – and gas prices – is being driven primarily by the Trump administration’s support for massive increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Trump’s hostility toward renewables and support for the poorly regulated AI data center boom aggravate the impending crunch. Lower-cost gas from the two biggest U.S. gas-producing regions, the Permian and Appalachian basins, will not be able to meet rising demand alone. To fill the gap between demand and production, gas producers will have to increase drilling in the significantly more expensive Haynesville shale play in Louisiana and Texas.
Interfacing science and policy: Exploring the role of scientific knowledge in the design of Voluntary Sustainability Standards, Loconto et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Through the concept of scientific cherry-picking, the authors analyze how Voluntary Sustainability Standards selectively incorporate particular strands of scientific knowledge that align with operational models and governance structures. This selective integration often leads to the promotion of interpretations of sustainability that are compatible with weak sustainability paradigms –emphasizing incremental improvements within existing systems – rather than fostering more systemic and transformative approaches.
181 articles in 66 journals by 1509 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Climate Coupling in the Western Hemisphere and 2023 El Niño Onset, Jury, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 10.1080/07055900.2026.2698635
Fast expansion and slow contraction of the ITCZ in response to CO2 forcing, Zhang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18164506
The government canceled this nature study. Scientists finished it anyway.
Posted on 29 July 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Neha Pathak
Most of us sense it without being told why: A walk in the woods or an hour in the park leaves us calmer, clearer, and restored. Increasingly, modern science agrees. A growing body of evidence links time in nature to better physical and mental health – and a major new effort is working to document exactly what that evidence shows.
That effort is called the Nature Record, and its survival is a story in itself. It began as the National Nature Assessment, a federal undertaking modeled on the long-running National Climate Assessment and mandated by a Biden-era executive order. Roughly 180 scientists volunteered to develop about a dozen chapters. The project had reached an early public-comment draft when the Trump administration canceled it. Rather than abandon the work, the authors decided to finish it independently under a new name, with foundation funding and National Academy of Sciences review.
Howard Frumkin, a physician-epidemiologist and a professor emeritus at the University of Washington, led the assessment’s chapter on human health. Yale Climate Connections spoke with him about how the report survived, what the science says about nature’s health benefits, why those benefits aren’t shared equally, and what it all means for communities and the healthcare system.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Yale Climate Connections: The connection between nature, health, and climate change pulls together fields that don’t usually sit at the same table. How do you frame that intersection?
Howard Frumkin: This intersection of the natural world and human health – in the context of climate change – draws on three different lineages intellectually.
Fact brief - Do solar plants require backup from fossil fuels?
Posted on 28 July 2026 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Do solar plants require backup from fossil fuels?
Solar plants require backup, but it doesn’t have to be from fossil fuels.
A combination of renewables, energy storage, and long-distance transmission can reliably power the majority of the U.S. without relying on coal, oil, or natural gas, as one 2017 research paper describes. Renewables like wind can generate under cloudy conditions, while surplus solar from brighter weather can be stored in utility-scale batteries for rainy days. Additionally, transmission from neighboring regions can assist solar capacity drops.
The Department of Energy and Princeton have outlined decarbonization scenarios projecting expansion of solar and decrease in fossil fuels while maintaining reliability. Analysis of real-world outcomes has found that renewables growth has actually outperformed projections.
California is an example of improving reliability while transitioning from fossil fuels to solar. From 2015 to 2025, in-state generation saw a jump in solar reliance from 8% to 27%, while natural gas dropped from 60% to 36%.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
The Electricity Journal Reliably integrating variable renewables: Moving grid flexibility resources from models to results
The Alliance for Climate Transition Institute Solar energy requires 100% fossil fuel backup
Princeton University Net-Zero America
University of Virginia Decarbonization by 2050: Are We on Track?
California Energy Commission CA Electric Generation 2001-25
California Energy Commission California Energy Leaders Report Progress on Grid Reliability Ahead of Summer 2026
MIT The Future of Energy Storage
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
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Hot days, cold thermometers
Posted on 27 July 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
A graph has been making the rounds on social media showing the average number of days per weather station above 95F, 100F, and 105F across the contiguous US since 1895. It comes from CFACT analyst Chris Martz, drawing on raw data from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network daily dataset (GHCNd), and it shows the 1930s towering over everything since. The implication is that extreme heat in the US is nothing new, and that all the recent fuss about record temperatures is overblown.
It is a compelling figure. The 1930s Dust Bowl really was an extraordinary period of extreme heat in the US, and no amount of correction for changes in measurement techniques over time makes it go away. But the graph is also a case study in why you cannot naively count threshold exceedances in raw daily station data and call it a climate record. Its results rest on two well-documented thermometer problems that artificially depress modern hot day counts, plus a station network that happens to be oversampled where the Dust Bowl happened.
Reproducing the viral chart
To start with, let’s reproduce the figure properly. Rather than averaging whatever stations happen to be reporting in a given year (the station network grew from a few hundred stations in 1895 to many thousands today, with big shifts in where they are located), I selected the 543 GHCNd stations in the contiguous US with long, near-continuous maximum temperature records over the full 1895-2025 period,1 gridded them to 2x2 degree cells, and computed an area-weighted national average.
Here we see the same basic story as the viral version: a huge spike in the 1930s (1936 alone averaged 33 days at or above 95F across these stations), elevated values through the mid-1950s, and nothing since that comes close. So the Martz figure is not fabricated, and its shape is not an artifact of the changing station network. To be fair to its author, counting hot days in raw data really does produce this picture.
The problem is what “raw” means here.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #30
Posted on 26 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)
- Insane': Republicans Push To Punish Canada For Wildfires “We will not tolerate this incompetence,” vowed Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who may not understand how climate change works. Huffington Post, Jennifer Bendery, Jul 17, 2026.
- UN to list more sites as 'in danger' from conflict or climate change Phys.org, Simon Valmary and Celia Lebur, Jul 18, 2026.
- As mosquito ranges expand, better monitoring is key to preventing disease Monitoring is expensive and labor intensive. But it helps public health officials stop outbreaks. Ars Technica, Madeline Shaw, Jul 19, 2026.
- Climate Scientists Say The Dice Are Loaded. Here's Why "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, July 19, 2026.
- Opinion: Is the Colorado River in a climate doom loop? We caused a problem, and our efforts to fix the problem make it worse Colorado Newsline, Gary Wockner, Jul 20, 2026.
- Rising seas magnify the dangers of coastal Georgia`s industrial past The state’s first Superfund research center is looking into how climate change is resurfacing industrial pollution. Grist, Emily Jones, Jul 20, 2026.
- Extreme heat morphs into a major economic shock for an unprepared Europe Europe’s status as the planet’s fastest-warming continent is becoming a serious drag on its economic prospects. The Business Standard, Laura Millan, Jul 21, 2026.
- What Happens to Our Brains in a Warming World? In this era of advancing AI, when everyone is debating the nature of 'intelligence,' we have forgotten that our brains run well only within a narrow band of temperature. What happens to the brain once that temperature threshold is crossed is often overlooked in discussions of climate change. State of the Planet, Marco Tedesco and Burcin Ikiz, Jul 22, 2026.
- The year climate change came for the Tour de France Record heat, wildfire threats, and an unprecedented stage modification highlighted the growing challenge global warming poses to endurance sports. Grist, Tik Root, Jul 23, 2026.
- Climate change to obliterate $1.5 trillion in U.S. home values Climate change will wipe out about $1.47 trillion in U.S. home values over the next three decades and hasten economic gaps in U.S. communities, a report released on Monday finds. CBS News, Kate Gibson , Jul 23, 2026.
- This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’ Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights. Nature, James Dinneen, Jul 23, 2026.
Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)
- How Companies Have Abandoned Their Climate Goals and Let Themselves Off the Hook Big business made big promises about saving the planet. Following through hasn’t been easy. New York Times, David Gelles, Jul 17, 2026.
- Trump threatens new Canada tariffs over fires sending 'filthy' air into US cities US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada after hundreds of wildfires have left much of the northern US covered by a blanket of smoke. BBC News, Nadine Yousif, Jul 18, 2026.
- Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis, study finds Top Democrat says findings show public ‘way ahead of the politicians’ as Trump dismisses global heating as ‘hoax’ The Guardian, Dharna Noor with graphics by Andrew Witherspoon, Jul 19, 2026.
- Trump Lashes Out at National Academies of Sciences Over Climate Guide For Judges Trump claimed without evidence that the manual was “fraudulent, biased, and misleading.” Inside Climate News, Dennis Pillion, July 20, 2026.
- Q&A: What the EU`s carbon market review means for climate action The European Commission has put forward new plans to cut emissions under the EU carbon market more slowly, from 2031 onwards. Carbon Brief, Orla Dwyer, Jul 20, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2026
Posted on 23 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Recent analyses have suggested that the decadal rate of Arctic winter sea-ice extent decline weakened in the early 2020s, with 20-y trends becoming statistically insignificant. Here we show from more up-to-date observations that the exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 ice extent winters reversed this picture, with sea-ice extent during the growth and peak phases returning to record lows and 20-y decline trends becoming significant again. Further analysis of CMIP6 model analogues shows that the observed 2025 decline was unusual but physically plausible under comparable Arctic warming, and is more consistent with ongoing winter sea ice reduction than with a return to values seen in the early 2020s.
As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany, Gies & Deutschmann, Global Environmental Change
In 2024, global heating exceeded 1.5 °C for the first time. Paradoxically, as the climate crisis becomes ever more evident, climate change scepticism (CCS) has recently grown (rather than declined) in Germany, a high-emissions country with enormous responsibility. Past research has not systematically studied which social groups and characteristics are behind this shift. We address this gap by examining the social structure of rising CCS in Germany, taking its multidimensionality into account. Drawing on GESIS Panel data that is representative of the German adult population, we detect a strong and consistent increase across a comprehensive set of 14 CCS indicators between 2022 and 2023. We find that this rise in scepticism is not driven by a small and ‘loud’ minority but rather constitutes a mass phenomenon: on average across all items, CCS increased among 59% of respondents, and for 93% of respondents at least one indicator rose. Regression models reveal a complex picture with socio-structural effects depending on the dimension of CCS, but right-wing political orientation, government distrust, and hierarchical worldviews are most consistently associated with increases in CCS. Overall, political attitudes – which are flexible and have shifted substantially in recent years – relate far more strongly to rising CCS than stable socio-structural factors like income or gender. These findings demonstrate an urgent need to restore trust in political institutions and to foster inclusive, participatory climate dialogue to secure broad public support for the transition towards a carbon-neutral society.
Climate Obstruction in the Digital Far-Right: Mapping the Climate Countermovement in German-, Danish-, and Swedish-Speaking Digital Information Environments, Henriksen et al., Environmental Communication
This article examines how climate obstruction narratives circulate in far-right digital information environments in Austria, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. We analyzed 41 million social media posts published across multiple social media platforms from 2019 to 2022. Using multilingual text classification and actor–source mapping, we identified which posts contained climate obstruction narratives, which actors produced them, and which sources they cited. The results revealed three configurations. In the German-speaking environment (Germany and Austria), obstruction is mainly driven by far-right citizen accounts embedded in a hyperpartisan media ecosystem. In Sweden, far-right grassroots actors coexist with climate-focused organizations that bridge mainstream and alternative sources. In Denmark, obstruction is comparatively mainstream-embedded and anchored in organizations and citizen groups drawing on legacy news. The article discusses how national media systems, political fields, and far-right actor constellations make certain forms of obstruction communicatively viable and thereby shape the digital climate countermovement.
Mapping climate change coverage: Causes, consequences, and solutions in German news media, 2010–2024, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science
The media shapes how political leaders and the public understand the causes, impacts, and solutions to climate change. Here, we provide the most extensive analysis to date of how German news media report on climate change between 2010 and 2024. We develop and validate a methodology based on large language models to analyze the contents of over 50,000 articles from seven major newspapers across the political spectrum. We found that aspects relating to causes, impacts, and mitigation were all covered substantially more often than aspects relating to adaptation. While most articles identified climate change as human-caused, coverage about causes was dominated by fossil fuels, with agriculture, overconsumption, carbon inequality, and economic growth rarely mentioned. Left-leaning outlets more frequently reported that climate change is human-caused, highlighted fossil fuels as a cause, emphasized the need to reduce their use, and discussed systemic and social drivers more often. Coverage patterns have remained largely stable over time, except for growing attention to net-zero targets and carbon taxes. Our findings highlight opportunities for more comprehensive climate journalism to better support public understanding and policy debate by reflecting the scientific consensus and the full range of societal transformations needed to address climate change.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, National Research Council, The National Academies Press
Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even as those trends become clearer, extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to assess the degree to which climate change contributed to any specific event. EEA studies provide information that can be useful for public understanding, planning and risk management, policy and legal contexts, and scientific research. The authors evaluate the state of EEA science, updating a National Academies report published in 2016. The authors also assess the emerging field of extreme event impact attribution (EEIA). The number of EEA studies has grown substantially over the past decade as scientific tools, observational datasets, and methods have advanced, enabling attribution studies to be completed within days of an event. However, challenges remain, including limited model capabilities for small-scale regional events, representation of key atmospheric processes, and attribution of compounding, cascading, and record-breaking events. The authors examine these advances and remaining challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening attribution science, improving collaboration with local experts and stakeholders, and advancing research, data, and modeling capabilities worldwide.
Early Warnings: Government Knowledge of Climate Change and Legal Responsibility for Climate Harm, Lindsay Fenlock and Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law
The authors examine publicly available government records, scientific evidence, and historical archives to document when major emitting States became aware of the causes and foreseeable consequences of climate change. They demonstrate that many governments understood the risks decades earlier than they have claimed, strengthening the evidentiary foundation for climate litigation, human rights, and climate advocacy, and the implementation of the International Court of Justice climate advisory opinion. By tracing the history of government knowledge, the report provides a critical resource for advancing climate accountability and ensuring that high-emitting States are held responsible for failing to prevent the climate crisis.
284 articles in 105 journals by 2495 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A 21-Year Global Daytime Satellite Climatology of Cirrus Cloud Cover and Its Links to Upper-Tropospheric Conditions and Aviation Over Europe and the North Atlantic, Huu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70506
A Reconciled Satellite Record Reveals a Negative Low Cloud Feedback Over the Past 47 Years, Cesana & Arouf, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124158
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management
Posted on 22 July 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Over the past week smoke from Canadian wildfires has once again poured into cities across Canada and the northern US. Toronto briefly had the worst air quality of any major city on Earth, Thunder Bay’s readings went off the top of Canada’s air quality health index scale, and unhealthy air alerts stretched from Minneapolis to New York City.
This smoke-pocalypse has renewed a long-standing debate online that these fires aren’t really about climate change at all, but about forest mismanagement. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, the argument goes, have let fuel pile up. We don’t log enough, thin enough, or do enough prescribed burning The forests are overgrown tinderboxes and we have only ourselves to blame. Climate is a distraction from a problem we created by listening to Smokey Bear’s insidious propaganda.
I want to take this argument seriously, because it has a real kernel of truth. The fire-deficit story is a genuine phenomenon in the dry conifer forests of the western United States. But most of what’s burning in Canada is boreal forest, and the boreal is a fundamentally different beast. So in this piece I’ll try to explain why the management argument, largely valid in a California pine stand, mostly falls apart when you move it a couple of thousand kilometers north, and explore what the fire data actually shows.
Here’s the short version. Canada’s area burned has surged, and it has surged in step with warming: hot, dry fire seasons burn far more forest, with area burned rises roughly 80% for each 1C increase in fire-season temperature (with a correlation coefficient of 0.61). This relationship is robust to a variety of statistical tests and controlling for confounding variables. The boreal burns in rare, high-intensity crown fires on a natural cycle measured in a century or more, across enormous remote areas that have never been logged, thinned, or effectively suppressed. Only about a fifth of Canada’s burned area over the past four decades was even inside forest regions that have ever been actively managed. You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.
Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada
Posted on 21 July 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters
As climate change bakes forests across North America, dense smoke from dozens of out-of-control wildfires burning in northern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Ontario is blanketing tens of millions of people with hazardous pollution.
The fires are bringing the worst air quality on record to much of the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast United States. Pollution from small particles called PM2.5 — the fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter are the primary air pollution killers — has been far into the “Hazardous” range across five states since Wednesday morning.
The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA pollution records go back to 1999.
The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA PM 2.5 pollution records go back to 1999.
Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 16, 2026
Duluth, MN: 934 AQI for PM2.5 (Old record: 159, July 20, 2021)
Toledo, OH (5 monitors): 624 (Old record: 190, June 28, 2023)
Chicago. IL (42 monitors): 511 (Old record: 246, June 28, 2023)
Detroit, MI: 490 (Old record: 226, June 28, 2023)
Cleveland, OH: 297 (Old record: 285, June 28, 2023)
Milwaukee, WI: 414 (Old record: 270, June 27, 2023)
Flint, MI: 343 (Old record: 178, June 27, 2023)
Minneapolis, MN (39 monitors): 251 (Old record: 193, July 29, 2021)
Green Bay, WI (5 monitors): 372 (Old record: 179, June 29, 2023)
Grand Rapids, MI (4 monitors): 482 (Old record: 227, June 27, 2023)
Lansing, MI (2 monitors): 408 (Old record: 194, June 29, 2023)
Buffalo, NY (11 monitors): 206 (Old Record: 176, June 7, 2023)
Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 17, 2026
Washington D.C. (21 monitors): 246 AQI at Ashburn, VA, and 234 at Springfield, VA (Old record: 222, June 8, 2023, at Franconia Park, VA)
Pittsburg, PA (25 monitors): 261 (Old record: 237, June 29, 2023)
Dover, DE (2 monitors): 223 (Old record: 207, June 8, 2023)
Columbus, OH (8 monitors): 272 (Old record: 210, June 28, 2023)
Because of the huge number of people affected, and since this is occurring at the same time as a severe humid heat wave, this extreme and widespread pollution event — which will be followed by many months of repeated wildfire smoke incursion into the U.S. — will undoubtedly cause hundreds and perhaps thousands of premature deaths. The only comparable wildfire smoke event affecting this portion of North America occurred in 2023; a 2025 study blamed that event for 33,000 premature deaths in the United States, 8,300 in Canada, and 23,000 in Europe. According to the EPA, a premature air pollution death is one that occurs on average 14 years before a person would have otherwise died.
The Strongest El Niño Ever
Posted on 20 July 2026 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
I’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.
The multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific) currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16. For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.
A few things stand out in this figure. First, no event in a century and a half of observations has ever pushed meaningfully past 2.75C. The legendary 1877-78 event comes closest, in a statistical dead heat with 2015-16 (2.73C vs 2.75C, well within the uncertainty of 19th-century ship data). Second, the middle 80% of this year’s forecast ensemble sits entirely at or above that all-time record: even the low end of the plume (2.8C) grazes it. Around 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 record at their peak.
To see what this would look like as the event unfolds, we can compare the forecast trajectory against the five strongest events ever observed, month by month through the development year and into the following spring.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
Posted on 19 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)
- New research : Doomsday Glacier ice shelf could 'give way any day now' "Just have a Think" on Youtubue, Dave Borlace, July 5, 2026.
- Grey whales are dying along our shores. Researchers say a warming climate may be part of the problem Although a number of factors may be contributing to the die-off, scientists say it’s likely at least partly due to climate change. Melting Arctic ice and warmer waters may be reducing the number of small sea creatures the whales rely on for food, and altering the selection of what does remain. CBC'', Brandie Weikle, Laura Lynch, Jul 12, 2026.
- The Strongest El Niño Ever With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 13, 2026.
- Global warming's new wrinkle - it's too hot for nuclear reactors to operate The scorching summer in the U.S. and Europe and wildfires across both continents are well documented, but global warming flexed its power in a new way this week as France said it shut down a handful of nuclear reactors because of the extreme heat. Callaway Climate Insights, David Callaway, Jul 14, 2026.
- Climate Change Contributes to a Smokier World Higher temperatures and drought conditions are contributing to more intense wildfires and extending the summer fire season in North America. NYT, Quinn Glabicki, Jul 16, 2026.
- Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 17, 2026.
- Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Jul 17, 2026.
Climate Science and Research (6 articles)
- Scientists finally solved the mystery of Earth's greatest mass extinction According to the researchers, the work also has important implications for the present. The environmental conditions before the Great Dying resembled the relatively cool, oxygen rich oceans that existed for millions of years before human activities began rapidly altering Earth's climate through fossil fuel emissions. ScienceDaily, Stanford University press office, Jul 12, 2026.
- Changes in Funding Could Tank Quality of Ocean Heat Content Data An uncertain funding landscape threatens the longevity of an ocean observation system critical to projecting tropical storms, sea level rise, and more. Eos, Grace van Deelen, Jul 13, 2026.
- A deep pool of extremely warm water is available to fuel El Niño in summer 2026 Climate.us, Rebecca Lindsey, July 16, 2026.
- The report oil companies are worried about: Climate attribution science New report says our ability to tie weather damages to climate change is improving. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 17, 2026.
- As climate extremes collide, attribution science evolves A National Academy of Sciences report on extreme climate event attribution confronts political climate denialism with scientific evidence. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Jul 17, 2026.
- "iT'S CaLLeD SuMmER" Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 17, 2026.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026
Posted on 16 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society
For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to obstruct climate action. Initially, the fossil fuel industry publicized communications that denied the role of fossil fuels in climate destabilization. Recently, however, they have advanced nuanced messages to delay climate action and policy. As the climate crisis worsens and calls to phase out fossil fuels intensify, research into the industry has revealed pervasive “greenwashing” and a discrepancy between external messaging on renewable energy and internal operational positions. Corporate annual reports, which are public-facing communications, offer insights into how companies align their internal strategy with their external messaging. Based on a textual analysis of the annual reports of four of the largest fossil fuel companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies), this research compares how companies have adapted their communication strategies about renewable energy between 2016 and 2022.
When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate [commentary]
We often describe the Anthropocene as a planetary emergency. Yet beneath the ecological upheaval lies a deeper and more destabilising fracture: the erosion of environmental truth [1]. By environmental truth, I refer to the collectively negotiated understanding of climate and ecological realities, shaped by scientific, social, and technological processes. Climate knowledge today is reported, debated, and contested, but increasingly it is computed [2]. Algorithmic infrastructures now decide what becomes visible, credible, and politically actionable. My argument here is direct: AI systems and digital platforms have become co-producers of environmental truth, and this reconfigures the very conditions under which climate policy, public debate, and democratic decision-making occur. The Anthropocene is as much a crisis of meaning as it is of ecology.
When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science
Long-term energy scenarios often assign a substantial role to biofuels in net-zero pathways, despite decades of policy support and limited evidence of sustained cost reductions or large-scale diffusion. Using biofuels as a critical case, this paper examines a broader problem in scenario construction: the misalignment between modelled technology pathways and socio-technical feasibility. Drawing on innovation theory, learning-curve evidence, and observed patterns of policy support and investment, it argues that biofuels are constrained by a configuration of mutually reinforcing limitations, including feedstock-dominated costs, weak learning dynamics, and permanent policy dependence. These constraints do not form a simple causal chain, but jointly limit the conditions under which large-scale competitiveness could emerge. Despite this, energy system and integrated assessment models often project extensive biofuel deployment under assumptions that abstract from political volatility and investment risk. The paper argues for greater use of empirical plausibility checks to improve the relevance of long-term energy scenarios.
Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters
Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.
Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research
With accelerating global warming, compound climate extremes pose amplified threats to ecosystems and socio-economic stability. However, the occurrence and evolution of Compound Coldwave and Freezing-Snow (CCFS) events in a warming climate remain a critical knowledge gap. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of CCFS characteristics, including its frequency, duration, and severity from 1964 to 2023, by integrating daily minimum temperature data from Berkeley Earth with hourly precipitation amount and precipitation type data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The spatial distribution of CCFS events exhibits a pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry, with over 90% of occurrences located in the Northern Hemisphere. Mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia and North America, where show the highest CCFS frequency, also experienced substantial temporal changes. Compared to the earlier period (1964−1993), notable declines in CCFS frequency, total duration, deficit heat, and combined severity are observed across most land regions during the recent warming period (1994−2023). Globally averaged trends reveal a faster reduction in CCFS frequency and total duration, as opposed to a slower decline in deficit heat and combined severity. The reduction has been particularly rapid in the top 20% most affected land areas, concentrated in subtropical North America, northern/eastern Europe, and Siberia. In these regions, average event frequency, duration, deficit heat, and combined severity declined markedly from approximately 3.5 events, 28 d, −44 °C, and 25 in 1964 to about 2 events, 18 d, −14 °C, and 17 in 2023. However, the average duration per event extends from 1964 to 2023, especially across mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, CCFS frequency and duration demonstrate a nearly linear decrease with global warming, while severity indicators follow a nonlinear, logarithmic decay. This disparity indicates distinct sensitivities among different CCFS characteristics. For all CCFS indicators except average duration, the linear component of the response outweighs the nonlinear component. The results will aid forecasting efforts and help to improve hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.
Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program
At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable.
287 articles in 92 journals by 1998 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases, Feng et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x
Home batteries could become the next must-have household appliance
Posted on 15 July 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bridgett Ennis
s the prices of home battery systems fall, they’re becoming a key part of the modern electric grid. They can help homeowners store power from rooftop solar panels or the grid for use during outages or periods of high demand. And they can reduce strain on the grid during heat waves when electricity demand soars.
In this interview with Yale Climate Connections, Raghu Belur, the chief products officer for Enphase Energy, explains how home battery systems can lower utility bills and create backup power during grid failures. He also says that batteries, including the batteries in electric vehicles, may one day make it possible for utilities to use power from many small sources to maintain a more reliable grid.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Yale Climate Connections: Could you explain what a home battery is, how it works, and the benefits it provides customers?
Raghu Belur: The beauty of the battery is it can do a few different things. The home – which traditionally has been only a consumer of energy – is actually producing its own energy with solar on the roof. One of the limitations to solar is that it’s an intermittent resource – we don’t have solar at night – so the best way to actually maximize the utilization or the usability of solar is to add a battery.
The second use case is you can actually sell energy back to the grid [in some places]. When there is a lot of demand on the grid and you have all these stored electrons, those electrons are very valuable for yourself as well as for the grid. So you as a prosumer – a producer and a consumer – can sell that energy to the grid and actually make money.
The third use case for that battery is, of course, if the grid were to fail. So when the grid goes out, these batteries can create a microgrid and power the home. The whole process is seamless: It senses that the grid is gone, takes over, and runs the home on the energy that it has saved so the homeowner wouldn’t even know that the grid is gone.
Fact brief - Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat?
Posted on 14 July 2026 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat?
Extreme heat can temporarily reduce range, but recent research does not show that EVs are unable to operate in hot weather.
Much of the decrease comes from energy diverted to cool the vehicle, not because EV batteries or motors stop functioning. Modern EVs use thermal management systems to keep components within safe operating temperatures.
U.S. Department of Energy testing in 2024 found EV range fell on average about 14% at an ambient temperature of 95°F (35°C) compared with mild weather. However, the same proportional decrease was measured for gasoline vehicles under comparable conditions.
AAA testing of popular EV models in 2026 found an average range decrease of 8.5% at 95°F. Meanwhile, a 2025 study of 345,000 real-world EV trips found a 16% reduction at temperatures up to 122°F (50°C).
Extreme heat can reduce efficiency, but it does not make EVs unable to function.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
U.S. Department of Energy Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature and Extreme Conditions on Electric Vehicles
AAA TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE EFFICIENCY
Applied Energy Extreme heat effects on electric vehicle energy consumption and driving range
Recurrent How Hot Summer Weather Affects EV Range
Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles
[Based on Evan's suggestion in the comments, we updated the title to eliminate the double negative. July 15, 2026]
Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!
Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk
Posted on 13 July 2026 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler
I have a commentary in Carbon Brief today, written with my friend, Prof. Chris Callahan. It focuses on the recent heatwave in France.
One point we wanted to make, but that was downplayed after the elves at Carbon Brief edited the piece, is that this event should make us rethink the victory lap people took after RCP8.5 was judged to be implausible.
The focus on arguments about emissions scenarios that only affect the climate late in this century takes the spotlight off the fact that the impacts of climate change are already here and they’re significant, as this French heatwave shows.
The reduction in future emissions is good news, but it may be cancelled by the fact that models seem to be underestimating the extreme heat that Europe is experiencing.
Here is a reprint of our Carbon Brief piece:
In June 2026, a record-breaking heatwave swept across Europe, with France among the first and hardest hit countries.
In a new analysis, we estimate that the extreme conditions caused more than 2,700 heat-related deaths in France.
We also show how France’s extreme temperatures in June exceeded projections from climate models.
Our findings illustrate the human toll of extreme weather as the world warms.
We also highlight the challenges in projecting the magnitude of future heatwaves and their impacts on people.
2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28
Posted on 12 July 2026 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)
- Ocean surface temperatures hit record high as world enters ‘uncharted territory,’ scientists warn Temperatures on the ocean surface hit a record high in June, European scientists warned Wednesday, fueling fears of more dangerous heat waves this summer and fanning concerns over the escalating global climate crisis.y NBC News, Chantal Da Silva, Jul 1, 2026.
- Heat, Drought, & Fires Disrupt USA`s 250th Anniversary - But We Ain`t Seen Nothing Yet A country that is by and large ignoring global heating is having celebrations of its 250-year anniversary/birthday canceled because of global heating. CleanTechnica, Zachary Shahan, Jul 04, 2026.
- Rising seas make once-rare coastal floods 12 times more likely Phys.org, Alexa St. John, Jul 04, 2026.
- Where do heat waves come from? Just like the adage “a rising tide lifts all boats,” a warming climate raises the baseline temperature from which heatwaves start. '' The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 04, 2026.
- Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk Professor Andrew Dessler points out that celebration over the recently retired RCP 8.5 emissions scenario is premature and irrelevant, given how Europe's scorching summer illustrates how ''low end'' warming we already live with is profoundly destructive. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jul 07, 2026.
- June heatwave in UK led to `mass sleep deprivation`, poll suggests Record temperatures fuelled by climate crisis left 86% of homes ‘too hot’ and many people feeling unwell The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Jul 07, 2026.
- The Arctic Ocean may have passed a crucial tipping point that could harm food webs and worsen climate change Sea ice loss seems to have triggered a decline in the nutrient nitrate, affecting the tiny organisms that form the foundations of marine food chains and absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study. Smithsonian Magazine, Sara Hashemi, Jul 09, 2026.
- The oceans are full of heat, and it`s coming ashore The ocean absorbs 90 percent of the excess heat from global warming. It doesn't all stay there. Grist, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey, Jul 10, 2026.
- The Irreversible Global Impacts of Earth`s Lost Frozen Regions In a U.N. side event organized by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, researchers and experts discussed how exceeding 1.5°C will bring irreversible damage from the loss of global snow and ice regions. State of the Planet, Amy Indieke, Jul 10, 2026.
- What happened to Australia`s snow season? A climate expert explains The Conversation, Andrew B. Watkins, Jul 10, 2026.
- Pacific gray whales facing `catastrophic` die-off as climate crisis hits food supply Trump administration urged to relist a species in ‘very, very serious trouble’ under Endangered Species Act The Guardian, Tom Perkins, Jul 10, 2026.
