Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #6 2026
Posted on 5 February 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Risk perception and response to changing wildfire hazards: family forest owners in the western US Pacific Northwest, Fischer et al., Climate Risk Management
Climate models predict future increases in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of natural hazard events, including heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. People may be aware of these natural hazards but unfamiliar with new patterns expected under climate change. Ideally, people would take action to protect themselves from natural hazard events—even those with which they have limited prior experience. Doing so would likely reduce the public costs of later assisting individuals impacted by events when they occur. Although a large body of research has examined how people perceive and protect themselves from the risks of natural hazards, fewer studies have focused on risk behavior in the context of changing hazard conditions. In such contexts, people’s past experiences may not be indicative of the future so they may rely more on their beliefs and information gained through their social networks when making decisions. Focusing on the western Pacific Northwest, USA–where a growing number of wildfires, including extreme wildfires, may signal changing hazard conditions–we examined the influence of wildfire hazard experiences, beliefs about environmental change, and information networks on family forest owners’ wildfire risk perceptions and risk mitigation intentions. We found strong correlations between family forest owners’ wildfire experiences and their wildfire risk perceptions. We also found strong correlations between owners’ risk perceptions and their beliefs about environmental change and information networks.
The Role of Industrial Excess Heat for the Transformation of the Energy System, Hammer et al., BHM Berg
In Austria, heat supply accounts for more than half of the country’s final energy consumption, with low-temperature heat below 100?°C for space heating and domestic hot water making up around 61% of that. Approximately 47% of total heat consumption is still covered by fossil energy sources. In the energy-intensive industrial sector in particular, previously unused excess heat is available for cascading use. This publication presents industrial excess-heat potentials identified through individual case studies and a nationwide survey. According to the comparison of figures, in an ideal scenario roughly 65% of private space heating consumption could be covered by excess heat. In addition to conventional district-heating systems, which represent the current state of the art, new options are emerging for distributing excess heat, including supra-national district-heating networks for longer transport distances. For challenges associated with predominantly low temperatures, mature and proven solutions exist through the combination of heat pumps and anergy networks. Increasing the integration of excess heat is absolutely essential in order to raise the efficiency of industry and further decarbonize the heating sector.
Editorial: Climate change impacts on arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks, Christensen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science
The Arctic Council has, through its report to Ministers in 2019, acknowledged that climate change will affect ecosystems and ecosystem services and that this is key to human livelihoods in the Arctic. As a follow up on this the Arctic Council, through its working groups Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), decided to initiate an assessment and a process with a focus on how climate change affects Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks and inform strategies for adaptation and resiliency. Forming part of this assessment process this Research Topic investigated the complex dynamics of Arctic ecosystems, focusing on marine, terrestrial, and atmosphere-ecosystem interactions. As sea ice diminishes and temperatures increase, the equilibrium of these ecosystems is disrupted, resulting in significant alterations in biodiversity, species distribution, and ecological processes. This Research Topic of studies elucidates the critical role of ice algae in marine food webs, the intricate feedback loops between tundra ecosystems and the climate, and the importance of methane emissions in global climate feedback mechanisms.
Rewiring climate modeling with machine learning emulators, Van Katwyk et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Earth system models, or simulators, are foundational for projecting climate change impacts, but their computational expense limits the number and diversity of simulations available. Machine learning-based emulators, statistical surrogates trained on simulator outputs, can replicate components of climate models at orders-of-magnitude lower cost, enabling ensembles and interpolation across scenarios. We argue that the next phase of climate modeling hinges on closer collaboration between simulator and emulator communities. We outline three priorities: (1) co-design of simulators and emulators so that experimental design, diagnostics, and data products support training, evaluation, and targeted simulation; (2) shared, machine learning-ready benchmarks with data partitions and metrics that emphasize physical fidelity; and (3) treating emulators as reliable software components with interfaces, documentation, and deployment pathways for sensitivity analyses, scenario exploration, and uncertainty decomposition. This perspective envisions emulators not as statistical shortcuts, but core tools that accelerate the pace of climate science.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Utility Bills are Rising: 2025 Review, PowerLines
The authors present a comprehensive review of utility bill trends and the state of energy affordability in 2025. In 2025, electric and gas utilities requested nearly $31 billion in rate increases, more than double the $15 billion in rate increases requested by ut These rate increases will affect 81 million Americans, contributing to rising financial anxiety for American consumers at a time when cost-of-living concerns are reaching a boiling point. Since 2021, electricity prices have increased by nearly 40 percent, with residential retail electricity prices increasing by 7 percent and piped gas prices increasing by 11 percent in 2025 alone. Electricity and gas prices are not only outpacing inflation, but are now the fastest drivers of inflation, surpassing other expenses including groceries, gasoline, vehicles, and medicine. Utility bills are poised to be a defining issue in the 2026 midterms, with 4 in 5 Americans feeling powerless over these costs and 3 in 4 Americans concerned about rising utility bills.
Consumer Cost Implications of Offshore Wind Stop Work Orders, American Clean Power
Wholesale electricity prices would rise significantly during evening peaks and winter hours – including intense winter storms like Fern. Power systems would rely more heavily on non-renewable sources and leave customers more exposed to price volatility. Grids would lose access to low-cost, winter-peaking clean energy that helps stabilize prices during periods of high demand. Over the next 10 years, customers along the East Coast will see an estimated $45 billion in additional cost as a result of the canceling and/or delaying of five offshore wind projects. Without these experience higher wholesale power prices, a greater reliance on fuel-constrained generation, and the loss of low-cost, winter-peaking energy.
143 articles in 65 journals by 976 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Storm Activity Using Machine Learning, Hadas & Kaspi, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118496
The Atmosphere as a Heat Engine Operating at Maximum Power, Roe et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0507.1
The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1
Thermodynamically primed Atmospheric River Rapid as the driver of the December 2023 Thoothukudi extreme rainfall, Sivachitralakshmi & Chitra, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1750461
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic climate change drives rising global heat stress and its spatial inequality, Peng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69164-y
Anthropogenically-driven escalating impact of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes on vegetation productivity, Liang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68878-3
Latitudinal gradients in runoff dynamics across undisturbed Eurasian permafrost rivers under accelerating climate change, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.002
Pronounced warming and wetting of climate in the Qilian Mountains during 1961–2022, BAHADUR et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.008
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
0.5° × 0.625° gridded daily soil temperature at four depths in Ethiopia during 1993–2023, Kobe et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1756263
An Automatic Procedure for the Attribution of Extreme Events at the Global Scale: A Proof of Concept for Heat Waves, Qasmi et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0265.1
Comparative Performance of Global Datasets and Ground-Based Precipitation and Temperature Products in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin: The Case of Türkiye, Keserci, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70276
Global gridded dataset of heating and cooling degree days under climate change scenarios, Lizana et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01754-y
Has the Fire Weather Index Emerged? Insights from Global and Regional Climate Models, Nogherotto et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100861
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?, Thorne et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-825
Long-wavelength steric sea level and heat storage anomaly maps to 2000 m by combining Argo temperature and salinity profiles with satellite altimetry and gravimetry, Chambers & Reinelt, Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-741-2026
New climate dataset from Mazovia (Central Poland) from the late 19th century as a basis for estimating the urban effect in multi-year trends in air temperature in Poland, Jarzyna et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-026-06023-2
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A CMIP6 LUMIP analysis of historical and projected climate impacts of land use and land cover changes in the United States, Lin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1699725
Has the Fire Weather Index Emerged? Insights from Global and Regional Climate Models, Nogherotto et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100861
Surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau under global net-zero emission scenarios, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.007
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A new index used to characterise the extent of Antarctic marine coastal winds in climate projections, Cable et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-247-2026
Deep Learning Atmospheric Models Reliably Simulate Out-of-Sample Land Heat and Cold Wave Frequencies, Meng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117990
Rewiring climate modeling with machine learning emulators, Van Katwyk et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03238-z
Robustness of Euro-Mediterranean Synoptic Circulation Types and Sensitivity to Member Selection in CMIP6 Models, Olmo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0545.1
Cryosphere & climate change
A climate data record of sea ice age using Lagrangian advection of a triangular mesh, Korosov et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-721-2026
Anatomy of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice lows in an ocean–sea ice model, Richaud et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-886
Approximating 3D bedrock deformation in an Antarctic ice-sheet model for projections, van Calcar et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-757-2026
Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss, Kolbe et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03242-3
Latitudinal gradients in runoff dynamics across undisturbed Eurasian permafrost rivers under accelerating climate change, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.002
Mechanisms and Atmospheric Drivers of Arctic Multiyear Sea Ice Loss, Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044859
Sea level & climate change
Coastal Water Level Trends and ENSO-Related Variability in the Northeastern Mekong Delta (1979–2024), Vinh et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101648
Forcing of Subannual-to-Decadal Sea Level Variability and the Recent Rapid Rise Along the U.S. Gulf Coast, Delman et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.175336987.78307881/v1
Thresholds of Wave Forcing: Implications for Atoll Reef Dynamics Under Sea Level Rise, Lindhart et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc023063
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming, Cooper et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5rm9v
Simulated Changes and Future Analogy Extent of Ocean Heat Content During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period, Grosvenor et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118840
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Anthropogenically-driven escalating impact of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes on vegetation productivity, Liang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68878-3
Bat Migration Intensifies Cave Fish Richness Loss Under Climate Change in China, Bai et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70148
Body condition among Svalbard Polar bears Ursus maritimus during a period of rapid loss of sea ice, Aars et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-025-33227-9
Carbon concentration mechanisms in Canary Islands macroalgae and their implications for future benthic community structure under ocean acidification, Hernández et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107898
Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics, Reis et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.70297
Coral species from another ocean may be the only way to save Caribbean reefs, Camacho et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2521543123
Defending endangered trees against climate change and hungry goats, Nuwer, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00248-x
Editorial: Climate change impacts on arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks, Christensen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1776354
Enhanced effect of warming on the leaf-onset date of boreal deciduous broadleaf forest, Li et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2
Environmental contexts mediate the dual impacts of snow cover on vegetation green-up: A key challenge of phenological prediction under climate change, Dong et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105354
Ephemeropteran and Trichopteran Assemblages Vary Across a Subtropical Rainforest Altitudinal Gradient: Useful Indicators for Climate Change, Pagotto et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73003
Evolutionary and environmental determinants of heat tolerance and acclimation capacity in herpetofauna, Sun et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.70127
Global tree slenderness under climate change, Tian et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70248
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Global Mountain Grasslands: Insights Into the Last Two Decades and Future Climate Scenarios, Na et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006419
Pantropical moist forests are converging towards a middle leaf longevity, Xue et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-68989-x
Phylogenetic relationships and climate-driven range shifts of Lemnaceae in South Africa, Ndou et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2025.1715912
Potential Range Shifts of Two Sympatric Fagus Species, Chen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72979
Potential Trade-Off Between Temperature and Tissue Loss Resistance in Corals Associating With Algal Symbionts in the Genus Durusdinium, Chan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70641
Predator response diversity to warming enables ecosystem resilience in the Galápagos, Chico-Ortiz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000652
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution and Habitat Preference of Tropical Tuna in the Pacific Ocean, Wu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107868
Response of Early Life-Stages of Forest-Forming Seaweeds From Warm-Edge and Central Populations to Marine Heatwaves, Musrri et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72998
Responses of South Caspian coastal foraminifera to warming: spatial patterns and assemblage shifts, Bagheri & Taheri, Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7499422/v1
The 4th global coral bleaching event: ushering in an era of near-annual bleaching, Spady et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5dx6q
The Genetic and Morphological Basis of Local Adaptation to Elevational Extremes in an Alpine Finch, Robertson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72962
The Geography of Mediterranean Benthic Communities Under Climate Change, Baldan et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70725
Two Critical Radii Dominate Phytoplankton Response to Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023657
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Annual carbon emissions from land-use change in China from 1000 to 2019, Yang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-36
Carbon Dynamics in Artificial Aquatic Ecosystems: Comparing Greenhouse Gases and DOM in Stormwater and Natural Ponds, Goeckner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009374
Carbon sequestration along a gradient of tidal marsh degradation in response to sea level rise, Huyzentruyt et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3293
Climate change intensifies carbon emissions from the Earth's Third Pole: Projected trajectories of soil and ecosystem respiration, Shen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105359
Editorial: Soil carbon sequestration and microbial energy metabolism, Jing et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1765491
Geological regulation of nitrous oxide emission risks in rivers globally, Qi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03250-3
How much of the forest sink is passive? Case of the United States, Davis et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2513588123
Losing a Hidden Ally: The Shrinking Capacity of Upland Soils to Remove Atmospheric Methane, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70741
Marsh Migration Into Forests and Farms: Effects on Soil Biogeochemistry Along the Salinity Gradients, Fettrow et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009149
Quantifying the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink, Li et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-767-2026
Quantitative impacts and patterns of greenhouse gas emission trends: implications for global change and policy, Afuye & Tolios, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2622340
Seasonality in Marine Organic Carbon Export and Sequestration Pathways, Li et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.174966610.08215013/v1
Solar radiation differences drive karst sun and shade leaf carbon sink contribution shifts, Du et al., Carbon Balance and Management Open Access 10.1186/s13021-025-00365-6
South Pacific carbon uptake controlled by West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, Struve et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01911-0
The global extent of the grassland biome and implications for the terrestrial carbon sink, MacDougall et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution pdf 10.1038/s41559-025-02955-6
Triple-isotopic analyses pinpoint microbial methane release from subsea permafrost in the inner Laptev Sea, Brussee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03222-7
Uptake and Release—What Is Driving Change in the Net Carbon Budget in Forest Soils?, Parker & Subke, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70729
Water Availability Weakens the Forest Litter Carbon Sink, Zhao et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gb008731
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A review on geochemical carbon dioxide removal potential of mafic and ultramafic rocks in India, Katre et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105419
Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal, Prütz et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5
Human-induced biospheric carbon sink: Impact from the Taklamakan Afforestation Project, Noor et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2523388123
Legal guardrails on states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal to meet climate targets, Rajamani et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2599861
Decarbonization
Conflicted about building decarbonization: Contested climate justice imaginaries in expert visions of low-carbon and net-zero buildings, Sovacool et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102806
Fairing the energy transition: A policy framework for integrating stakeholder concerns in solar energy development, Rielli & Wang, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104511
Fossil energy minimum viable scale, Lappen & Grubert, Science 10.1126/science.aea0972
Maximising environmental savings from silicon photovoltaics manufacturing to 2035, Willis et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69165-x
Nuclear reactors are too expensive and slow to build, Ramana, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01934-2
Sectoral Cost-Benefit Analysis for Clean Technology Demonstrators: Insights for Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Industries, Sadighi et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-025-01051-4
Seizing the green hydrogen opportunity? Comparing strategies for industrial transformation in latecomer countries, Bacil et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115111
Technology and policy options for achieving net zero steel manufacturing in the United States, Li et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115124
The Role of Industrial Excess Heat for the Transformation of the Energy System, Hammer et al., BHM Berg Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00501-026-01702-z
Aerosols
Trend of North African Dust Storms and Potential Link to Climate Change, Yeo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd043630
Climate change communications & cognition
A decade of weather anomalies and natural disasters and their influence on environmental beliefs and actions across Australia, Ghasemi et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102932
Activists Preserving the (Multi-Platform) Environment: Advocacy Coalitions of #Lützerath Climate Protests, Meyer et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2617507
Adaptation versus Mitigation: Does Goal-Framing Influence the Appeal of Climate-Relevant Behaviors?, Herziger et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102934
Far-right fossil fuel ignorance: the nostalgia of national-industrial modernity, Vowles, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2620920
How advertising matters: Outdoor media strategies for increased engagement with creative climate change messages, Boykoff et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5fm92
Risk perception and response to changing wildfire hazards: family forest owners in the western US Pacific Northwest, Fischer et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100795
What Determines One’s Information Seeking Intention: Integrating Information Seeking Theories in the Context of Climate Change with Korean Sample, Jang & Kim, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102941
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Beyond Climate Change: The Role of Integrated Soil Fertility Management for Sustaining Future Maize Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa, et al., Open Access 10.18167/dvn1/egjxvl
Challenges and opportunities for integrating climate action into school feeding: Insights from the Global Survey of School Meal Programs, Gharge & Wineman, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000797
Communicating weather and climate information to smallholder farmers in resource-poor climate-vulnerable southern Somalia: a social science inquiry, Anderson et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2620539
Current and projected impacts of extreme climate events on winter wheat yield in Northern China, Zeng et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02954-2
Effect of type of farming practices on the soil carbon sequestration and yield of some crops, Khater et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-35230-0
Estimating the economic damage caused by climate change to Korean aquaculture, Kim et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-025-00161-2
From past exceptional extremes to frequent future risks: How climate change shapes the fate of common wheat in France, Aubry et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111054
Governing black soils for food and climate security, Liao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69018-7
Grapevine-chronology: Annual growth ring analysis for climate adaptation and vineyard management – A review, Roig-Puscama & Roig, Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126481
Leveraging public-private partnerships for climate finance: advancing climate-smart agriculture for NDC implementation in Kenya and Senegal, Sow Badji & Gathu, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2616965
Reevaluating carbon storage and emissions in California’s harvested wood products: implications for alternative waste parameters, Lucey et al., Carbon Balance and Management Open Access 10.1186/s13021-026-00407-7
Smallholder farmers’ adaptation at the climate–conflict nexus: a systematic review, et al., Open Access 10.17632/shm4fz8hfn.1
Thiamin addition to soil increases potato tuber thiamin content under greenhouse conditions, Goyer et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.20684
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Anthropogenic Forcings Intensify Droughts More Severely in Drylands than in Humid Regions, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044821
Drying Soil Moisture Dominates Enhancing Summer Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling Under Climate Change, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119826
Human interventions and climate change trigger water crisis in the Tigris and Euphrates Basin, Darvishi Boloorani et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104300
Is daily extreme rainfall increasing in the Mediterranean basin? A critical review of the evidence, González-Hidalgo & Beguería, Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105409
Latitudinal gradients in runoff dynamics across undisturbed Eurasian permafrost rivers under accelerating climate change, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.002
Climate change economics
Climate change risk index and municipal bond disclosures of United States drinking water utilities, Lyle et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-03044-z
From Debt Burden to Climate Burden: A Historical Look at Debt and Climate Change, Mohan, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70042
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A new approach to assess individual contributions to energy transition goals, Sanz-Cuadrado et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115055
Balancing social attitudes and ecological conservation in Taiwan’s wind power development under climate change, Chen, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1714136
Carbon emission reduction requires attention to the contribution of natural gas use: Combustion and leakage, Chen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-1359-2026
Climate change and thermal stress in cattle: Global projections with high temporal resolution, Neira et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000761
Driving decarbonization? Corporate responses to the Paris climate agreement in the global automotive sector, Bare et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104549
Effective climate policies for ‘all seasons’: novel evidence from 40 countries, Fernández-i-Marín et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2598684
From miners to markets: discursive struggle in Romania’s coal phase-out, Koretsky & Turnheim, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2610543
Legal guardrails on states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal to meet climate targets, Rajamani et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2599861
Quantitative impacts and patterns of greenhouse gas emission trends: implications for global change and policy, Afuye & Tolios, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2622340
Spatial patterns and drivers of carbon emissions in metropolitan peripheries, Kailin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1662797
What accelerates the arrival of the peak carbon dioxide emissions turning point in tourism? Empirical evidence from China, Liu, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2026.2622337
When energy transitions drive polarization: Narratives of green energy and mitigation strategies by proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia, Smith et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115080
Why carbon offsets may fail in complex systems: A causal inference perspective, Rana et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104325
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A framework for assessing climate resilience of informal settlements: the case of Eswatini, Ndlangamandla & Du Plessis, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2620538
Challenges and opportunities in scaling climate-resilient housing solutions in the United States, Seeteram et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-68595-x
Climate change demands coordinated adaptation strategies of drinking water treatment, Usman et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02547-z
Climate-adaptive transportation infrastructure: Cross-regional solutions for urban resilience and emergency response, Tong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102780
On the applicability of knowledge sources in climate-based design: Thermal-spatial micro-spaces in historical gardens versus contemporary outdoor design strategies, Nouri-Horzvili et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102713
Planning for just relocations in Europe in times of climate change: a comparative study, Calliari et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-026-02523-z
Structural Accommodation as a Coastal Adaptation Response to Sea-Level Rise: Lessons From Europe, Pasquier et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.175105651.11502498/v1
The Rapid Progress of Climate Change Requires Effective Concepts for Protecting People Indoors, Salthammer & Morawska, Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5gt7p
Using news media to identify gaps in climate change adaptation research: Insights from the Philippines, Bartelet et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100793
Climate change impacts on human health
A Regionally Determined Climate-Informed West Nile Virus Forecast Technique, Harp et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2025.03.27.25324789
Anthropogenic climate change drives rising global heat stress and its spatial inequality, Peng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-69164-y
Escalating labor risks from sequential extreme precipitation?heatwave events in China under a warming future, JU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.006
What competencies physical activity professionals should possess to better integrate climate change related issues into their practice: A Delphi study, Hozhabri et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000812
Other
The effectiveness of environmental technologies in combating climate change: a cross National Analysis, Christiansen et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2620212
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Exceeding 1.5 °C requires rethinking accountability in climate policy, Ganti et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00247-y
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Long-Term Reliability Assessment, North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The authors independently evaluate the long-term reliability of the North American bulk power system (BPS) while identifying trends, emerging issues, and potential risks during the upcoming 10-year assessment period. The overall resource adequacy outlook for the N Projections for resource and transmission growth lag what is needed to support new data centers and other large loads that drive escalating demand forecasts. Most new resources in development to come on-line in the next five years consist of battery storage and solar photovoltaic (PV), which are inverter-based and weather-dependen operating a reliable grid. Meanwhile, more fossil-fired generator retirements loom in the next five years, reducing the amount of generation that has fuel on site and impacting the system’s ability to respond to spikes in demand. The continuing shift in the resource mix toward weather-dependent resources and less fuel diversity in Planners, market operators, and regulators grapple with steep increases in demand and swelling resource queues, they face more uncertainty, adding to the already-complex endeavor of planning for resource adequacy during this period of rapid grid transformation. To ensure there are sufficient resources for supplying electricity in North Americans, industry, regulators, and policymakers need to be vigilant for shifting projections, keep plans for deactivating existing generators flexible, expedite system development, and perform robust adequacy assessments of future scenarios. In addition, careful planning and broad cross-sector coordination will be needed to navigate a period of potentially strained electricity resources.
Improvements Needed for Tracking and Reducing State Energy Consumption; BGS Overstated Savings in a Selection of Energy Efficiency Projects, Pritchard et al., Vermont State Auditor
The authors evaluate how Vermont is measuring state government’s progress in meeting the State Agency Energy Plan (SAEP) goals, determine whether the Department of Buildings and General Services (BGS) Energy Office selects the most cost-efficient energy savings projects for buildings, and determine whether the BGS Energy Office assessed the outcomes of energy savings projects for buildings.
Impact Report 2025, Climate Cardinals
At the heart of Climate Cardinals is a simple idea: when people understand the science of climate change in their own language, they can act on it. Climate Cardinals prioritized translation partners with a clear theory of change, strengthened the Fellows Program with a new 14-module curriculum, and improved chapter onboarding with better tools and operational support. Surveys showed strong personal and professional growth, with the community going on to launch companies, win national fellowships, and earn UN appointments—as well as launch major initiatives such as Climate Calling and Ambassadors.
Consumer Cost Implications of Offshore Wind Stop Work Orders, American Clean Power
Wholesale electricity prices would rise significantly during evening peaks and winter hours – including intense winter storms like Fern. Power systems would rely more heavily on non-renewable sources and leave customers more exposed to price volatility. Grids would lose access to low-cost, winter-peaking clean energy that helps stabilize prices during periods of high demand. Over the next 10 years, customers along the East Coast will see an estimated $45 billion in additional cost as a result of the canceling and/or delaying of five offshore wind projects. Without these experience higher wholesale power prices, a greater reliance on fuel-constrained generation, and the loss of low-cost, winter-peaking energy.
Offshore wind stop-work orders are costing consumers, delaying needed electricity, January 28, 2026 Seth Feaster and Dennis Wamsted, Institue for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Efforts to stop five large offshore wind projects under construction along the Atlantic Coast could cost consumers billions of dollars and keep much-needed new electricity off the grid. Delaying these projects only raises costs for electricity consumers and keeps needed new generation capacity off the grid. A three-week Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) stoppage cost more than $5 million a day, with further delay to lead to “far greater harm to the project.” Already, $8.9 billion already has been invested in CVOW, which has a total projected cost of $11.2 billion. The costs will not disappear if the project is cancelled. New England was already setting new wind power records with the help of the 800 MW Vineyard Wind 1 project. On Dec. 12, 2025, wind generated 37,310 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity, or 10.8% of the region’s power demand.
La Niña, Climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of Southern Africa, Pinto et al., World Weather Attribution
Since late December 2025, severe flooding has affected large parts of Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa and Zimbabwe, killing more than 200 people, destroying more than 173,000 acres of crops and causing further widespread humanitarian and socioeconomic impacts in the affected countries. The flooding was caused by exceptionally heavy and persistent rainfall across a large region in southeastern Africa starting on December 26th and intensifying from early January, with some areas recording more than 200 mm of rain within 24 hours. Researchers from Mozambique, South Africa, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall event. To estimate if human induced climate change influenced heavy rainfall over the region the authors first determined if there is a trend in observations in the heaviest 10-day rainfall, finding that while the event is with a return period of about 50 years, relatively rare, even in today’s climate that has warmed by 1.3°C, it would have been much rarer in a 1.3°C colder climate. Similarly, all observational datasets show that extreme rainfall spells are becoming more intense, by about 40%. The authors cannot confidently attribute the magnitude of the observed change to climate change. However, they have confidence that climate change has increased both the likelihood and the intensity of the 10-day rainfall, based on the observed signal, physical understanding and existing literature.
North Carolina Solar Land Use and Agriculture Study – 2025 Update, Jerry Carey and Daniel Pate, North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association
Utility-scale solar (USS) development has grown significantly in North Carolina, increasing from 3 total systems in 2009 to currently more than 773. To better understand the amount of land these installations occupy, the authors conducted a land use analysis using solar installation data from the organization’s Renewable Energy Database (REDB) and land use data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). This analysis serves as an update to the report iteration carried out in 2022. Based on NCSEA’s analysis, only 0.31% of total agricultural land is currently used for USS development.
Europeau Electricity Review 2026, Beatrice Petrovich, Ember
The author analyses full-year electricity generation and demand data for 2025 in all EU-27 countries to understand the region’s progress in transitioning from fossil fuels to clean electricity. Wind and solar generated a record 30% of EU electricity, higher than fossil power for the first time on record. EU solar generation reached a record 369 TWh in 2025, 20% higher than last year. In 2025 wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels in 14 of the 27 EU countries.
Heat Tabletop Exercises: Lessons Learned and Best Practices, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Integrated Heat Health Information System
From 2022-2025, the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) has supported and funded extreme heat tabletop exercises (TTXs) in communities across the United States. This authors summarize the outcomes, themes, and lessons learned from these communities. They focus on the strengths and gaps identified, as well as best practices for hosting future TTXs. Throughout discussions, participants identified critical gaps in their current heat work. Participants noted that overcoming these key barriers is important to heat mitigation and resilience efforts.
Utility Bills are Rising: 2025 Review, PowerLines
The authors present a comprehensive review of utility bill trends and the state of energy affordability in 2025. In 2025, electric and gas utilities requested nearly $31 billion in rate increases, more than double the $15 billion in rate increases requested by ut These rate increases will affect 81 million Americans, contributing to rising financial anxiety for American consumers at a time when cost-of-living concerns are reaching a boiling point. Since 2021, electricity prices have increased by nearly 40 percent, with residential retail electricity prices increasing by 7 percent and piped gas prices increasing by 11 percent in 2025 alone. Electricity and gas prices are not only outpacing inflation, but are now the fastest drivers of inflation, surpassing other expenses including groceries, gasoline, vehicles, and medicine. Utility bills are poised to be a defining issue in the 2026 midterms, with 4 in 5 Americans feeling powerless over these costs and 3 in 4 Americans concerned about rising utility bills.
Right-Sizing Reactors: Balancing trade-offs between economies of scale and volume, Jessica Lovering, Nuclear Innovation Alliance
if a country wants to build a lot of nuclear power fast, should the industry follow the mantra of bigger is better, or shift to focus on small modular reactors, or even microreactors, to follow the promise of factory fabrication? The author explores this question through economics literature and original analysis. The author concludes that there absolutely is evidence for economies of scale with nuclear reactors, but there is also a history of significant cost overruns due to the challenges of megaproject management. When other energy technologies are small and modular, we see numerous benefits including steeper cost reduction curves, faster deployment, and lower financial risk. But there are some potential obstacles to nuclear energy benefiting from the same attributes as these other so-called “granular” technologies (small and modular), particularly uncertainty around scaling regulations.
Energy Efficiency Can Address Surging Electricity Needs at Half the Cost of Gas Plants, Mike Specian and Alex Aquino, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Energy efficiency and load flexibility have enough untapped potential nationally to significantly offset the unprecedented forecasted load growth (i.e., electricity consumption and peak demand). The analysis of the nation’s largest utility programs shows that energy efficiency (~$21/ MWh) and load flexibility (<$40/kW-year) are currently the lowest-cost resources for reducing electricity consumption and peak demand. Yet, despite an energy affordability crisis, many jurisdictions are responding to load growth by approving additional gas generation. Demand-side measures are quicker to implement and provide a cleaner alternative to building new generation. They offer a “no-regrets” approach to managing load growth uncertainty and protecting ratepayers from adverse impacts. Business-as-usual approaches are not delivering efficiency and load flexibility at the scale required to meet projected load growth. Legislators, utilities, utility regulators, and large load customers (e.g., data centers) must act now to accelerate demand-side solutions while accounting for the large regional variations shaping where and how load growth occurs.
The Next Decade in PJM A Path to Reliability and Affordability, Resor et al., Advanced Energy United
Reliability and affordability are of paramount importance for PJM. Two paths lie ahead for the region: One in which primarily gas resources are deployed to meet rising load, and one in which policy change enables higher deployment of advanced energy resources (wind, solar and storage, demand flexibility resources, and advanced transmission technologies). The authors analyze these pathways from a reliability and cost perspective and finds that the difference for the 67 million people living within PJM is stark. Increased deployment of advanced energy technologies in PJM reduces the expected frequency of outages in 2030 by 97 percent. Increased deployment of advanced energy technologies in PJM reduces the number of customers affected by outages by 87 percent. From 2025–2035, higher deployment of advanced energy technologies offers a cumulative cost savings of $178 billion, or 20 percent, relative to the Status Quo scenario (primarily gas resources). To assess the reliability of both resource portfolios over the next decade, the authors conducted advance power sector capacity expansion and resource adequacy modeling. The reliability analysis focuses on bulk power system reliability.
About New Research
Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.
Suggestions
Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
Comments