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Comments 1101 to 1150:
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scaddenp at 17:44 PM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
Should have guessed that level of cluelessness would be our persistent spammer.
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Eclectic at 11:29 AM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
Philippe @3 , @4 :
Your very rational arguments are a real party-pooper.
Moonwatcher builds a house of cards, and you go and pull away the supporting cards at the base.
Another factor, beyond the mental horizon of perhaps half the population, is that a great many scientists are in the job of science because that is what they are interested in doing. Few of them would object to receiving the money attached to a Nobel Prize ~ but the Prize itself is the . . . er, prize . . . rather than the dollars (or krona). And they would do the same job, even if the Nobel did not exist.
Strangely enough, it is evident that most Actors, Artists, Authors . . . through the alphabet to Zoo-keepers, are primarily interested in the work they do in their lives (rather than for a living ). # As a frequent visitor to the WattsUpWithThat blogsite, I find it notable that the overwhelming majority of commenters there seem to have their lives ruled by Dollars and Conspiracies (and worse). They look at AGW, and all they can see is $$$ (or worse).
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scaddenp at 11:19 AM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
And one other note - if you narrow the climate funding to what is spent on climate research (ie where scientists work as opposed to money spent on adaptation, alternative energy etc), then the bulk of money goes on satellites and supercomputers. I'm pretty curious about the oversupply of scientists. Why is it so hard to get staff then?
Financiers might be involved in adaptation, but governments fund research on the whole. Oil companies have plenty of smart scientists and resources (worked in petroleum research for years). If AGW is fraud, then surely they could spend $$ on research to demonstrate. They instead opted to spend money on disinformation - must better bang for buck. The problem being that their own scientists give them bad news.
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Philippe Chantreau at 10:07 AM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
More questions:
What sources report a gross over-supply of engineers and scientists, a term used twice in post #2 above?
I have a little familiarity with the aerospace industry, where many scientists with physics and applied mathematics backgrounds can use their competence, even if they are not specifically trained as aerospace engineers. There is a serious shortage of talent in that field.
I am also familiar with medicine and biomedical applications, where shortage of scientists and engineers are also a problem, easily confirmed by any basic search.
Other sources report a serious shortage of hydrologists, a profession of very high interest for the future.
I'll add this article from the Bureau of labor Statistics. Of special interest is this quote: "A comprehensive literature review, in conjunction with employment statistics, newspaper articles, and our own interviews with company recruiters, reveals a significant heterogeneity in the STEM labor market: the academic sector is generally oversupplied, while the government sector and private industry have shortages in specific areas."
So, once again, how does this constitute a "gross over-supply"?
If anything, with the supply and demand law being what it is and the immense financial means available to private industries, it seems that this imbalance abundantly confirms that there is more money to be made for science majors in the private sector than in research, does it not?
Moderator Response:[BL] The bulk of the comment you are responding to has been deleted, being from a serial sock puppet.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:31 AM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
Interesting theory.
From the chronological point of view, would it not be possible to observe the emergence of a consensus of research results before the accumulation of investments that resulted from that consensus? If that is the case (it assuredly is), does that not make it impossible for these investments to be the cause of the results, since effects can not precede cause?
What is the source for that 5 trillion figure? This would correspond to a vast array of very diverse and numerous separate "industries" and interests, how do they coordinate their influence on those scientists anxious for their jobs? How can said scientists know where the money is coming from and ensure they say what is expected of them? Once a large number of studies from.many different sources all converge in one direction, is it still reasonable to assume that it is just the result of efforts to satisfy funding sources? How about studies coming from sources that have an interest against belief in AGW that also confirm these results?
What are the criteria to declare that a business existence and success are dependent on "belief" in AGW?
Is there a figure for the level of investment dependent on delaying energy transition policies?
Not that I would engage in deflection but, to pursue the same logic, what level of public opinion manipulation can be expected from a single industry that generates hundreds of billions of profits (not talking about investments here, simply profits)? Would it not be easier to coordinate an effort to manipulate when only a few very large interest groups are involved?
Just asking questions.
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Moonwatcher at 08:39 AM on 31 October 2023At a glance - Climate scientists would make more money in other careers
The statement that
There are many much easier ways for an intelligent and literate person to make money. If money was the motive, they'd be in another career.
is highly misleading. Those who were educated as scientists simply would not qualify for other careers, except possibly in one-in-a-million exceptions where a rich uncle, for example, was willing to take him/her in and get them up-to-speed. Normally, they are simply told that they don't have the right background for the job.
It is true that while employed, scientists can make a respectable but certainly not extravavent living. With the gross over-supply of scientists and enginners, however, their careers are always tenuous at best. I know because I have been there and have been in contact with others in the same boat.
Now consider the fact that there is already well over $5 trillion (USD) invested in the climate change industry (ie. businesses whose success depends on the general belief in AGW). Put yourself in the shoes of one of the financiers investing that money. Would you tend to grant funds to scientists who speak unfavorably about the AGW theory, thereby jepardizing their clients investments? And, with the gross over-supply of qualified scientists, there will always be some willing to sing to the same sheet of music as the financiers. These are the scientists that we call successful, but are certainly not rich. They do, however, keep their jobs (hopefully!), and are the ones that are polled in establishing consensus figures.
From this relatively small pool of successful scientists, a few climb the ladder to prestigious positions such as scientific advisors to various political, entrepreneurial, and military celebrities. These are the only scientists that come close to being "rich" by most peoples standards.
Moderator Response:[BL} User banned as yet another sock puppet.
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JockO at 20:40 PM on 30 October 2023CO2 effect is saturated
Please accept my apologies regarding my previous post. It looked initially as if there had been no comments here since 2019. Once I had posted, I saw that there were some more recent pages of comments and I have just seen that this paper has been discussed.
Moderator Response:[BL] Yes, the comments section on this thread is long and convoluted. Navigation is not as easy as we'd like.
Note that Skeptical Science also has an internal search function, available just under the masthead on the upper left of each page. You can use that to find material, and it will search the contents of comments if you follow the button on the results page (which at first only presents hits in our blog posts and rebuttals).
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JockO at 20:36 PM on 30 October 2023CO2 effect is saturated
In recent interactions regarding the topic of saturation, I have on a few occasions now been directed to a relatively recent paper by Wijngaarden and Happer (Dependence of Earth's Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases, arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098). Now, I know Happer at least has enough history to warrant extreme skepticism and that, if he really had any new insights, this work would probably have had more of an impact. On the other hand, I am not by any stretch of the imagination an expert and am unable to pinpoint what is wrong with what he is saying. Much of what is in the paper seems to be "standard" physics but at some point his conclusions diverge from what I understand from elsewhere. I wondered if anyone here could offer any insight.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:52 AM on 30 October 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #43
Ever heard of a "metaphor," Davz?
But, I'm going to assume this is yet another in your long series of drive-by posting, and really, Davz not here, man.
Moderator Response:[BL] Yet another, but the last. Davz won't be here any more.
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Davz at 08:40 AM on 30 October 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #43
According to the UN "the world is boiling ". Anyone like to tell me where? And shouldn't we all be dead?
Moderator Response:[BL] Past warnings to engage in full discussion are being ignored. As a result, this will be Davz last post.
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Eclectic at 07:42 AM on 29 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Rob Honeycutt @58 [re your final sentence and "gish-gallopped"] ~
Indeed, poor Dr Clauser seemingly has left the building.
To confess, I did briefly ponder that TWFA's expansive postings were perhaps the product of one of the newer generations of Chat-GPT. However ~ the topics raised were too discursive, inapt, and self-oriented to be other than of human origin. The depth of knowledge was also not up to Chat-GPT's level.
And the picture formed, of a modern Laocoon (minus sons) struggling with the many large serpents of Global Warming.
TWFA , please struggle with only one serpent at a time (per one thread). Other serpents await you on other threads, in accordance with the house rules of SkepticalScience website. I admire your confidence in tackling your new career of amateur snake-catcher.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:32 AM on 29 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... re: Hurricanes
This is another example of the limits of your understanding and your proclivity for motivated reasoning. If you were to actually spend time reading the research on hurricanes you'd find a lot of interesting aspects to this issue.
1) Cyclonic activity has two effects that work somewhat in opposition to each other. Warming oceans provide more energy to spin up large cyclones, but upper winds tend to tamp them down. That physical element of the processes introduce a lot of uncertainty into the natural vs man-made issue.
2) Cyclone data is a real bear to wrestle. Older data is sparse due to the fact that the only information comes from early seafaring vessels and areas with low populations. Even 20th century data lacks a great deal of information about size and intensity of storms. Only in the past 10-15 years have scientists been able to track the total energy contained within individual storms.
The result:
Yes, cyclonic activity is increasing as human activities warm the planet.
Yes, storms are spinning up faster and covering larger expanses when they do.
No, a statistically significant increase in the number of landfall storms isn't yet being obsevered.
Once again, there are a number of well written articles on Skeptical Science on precisely this topic by people better informed on this subject than me. I would highly suggest you take the time to read a few of them before continuing on this topic.
Also, if you have questions or obsevations on that topic, please post in the thread for that article in order to keep your discussion on-topic.
Thusfar, we have gish-gallopped around quite a few topics here in this thread that is supposed to be relevant to Clauser.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:09 AM on 29 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... "The climate would and will continue warming at this phase even if man never existed..."
Here, yet again, you literally have no clue what you're talking about but present something as if it were fact.
If you look at the paleo record it is very clear that the Earth was entering a cooling phase due to slow changes in orbital forcings. It's only when humans started burning fossil fuels and substantially altering surface albedo (deforestation, farming, etc) that the planet abruptly changed and entered a steep warming trend.
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John Mason at 02:06 AM on 29 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Re - TWFA #55: "The climate would and will continue warming at this phase even if man never existed"
For that to happen a cause is required. Care to set that out with references?
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TWFA at 01:16 AM on 29 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Michael, the claim was that the hurricane was the most powerful ever in the East Pacific, not the most powerful recorded or obseved, and frankly I don't know who was recording hurricanes in that region 200 or 500 years ago that never made landfall or how they were measured.
The climate would and will continue warming at this phase even if man never existed, and with warming comes more weather and stronger weather. I assume all here consider NASA to be a creditable source, in this article last year, while making the usual predictions about what will happen when things get warmer, they cite a single study from 2019 that suggests that the current activity may be outside the natural variability:
Since the 1980s, the hurricane record has shown a more active period in the North Atlantic Ocean. On average, there have been more storms, stronger hurricanes, and an increase in hurricanes that rapidly intensify. Thus far, most of these increases are from natural climate variations. However, one recent study suggests that the latest increase in the proportion of North Atlantic hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification is a bit too large to be explained by natural variability alone. This could be the beginning of detecting the impact of climate change on hurricanes, the paper states. In contrast, the frequency of hurricanes making U.S. landfall (a subset of North Atlantic hurricanes) has not increased since 1900, despite significant global warming and the heating of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
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michael sweet at 21:32 PM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA:
Do you realizr how rediculous your claim that if you wait long enough a bigger hurricane will strike the Pacific coast? We have 500 years of records for that part of the world. Those records clearly show that hurricanes have become stronger the past 20 years. If we look at the entire world the record is longer and there are a lot more hurricanes to compare. The worldwide record conclusively demonstrates to anyone who loois at it that hurricanes are increasing dramatically in strength, spin up much more rapidly than they used to and cause much more damage because they are more powerful. The fact that you have not learned about hurricanes does not mean that they have not become more powerful.
Your entire argument is based on the fact that you are completely uninformed about the dramatic changes that were predicted in advance by scientists and have now been measured worldwide.
It is impossible to counter an argument based on ignorance. You will neve rconvince anyone here about anything. We have followed the changes you deny.
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Eclectic at 12:12 PM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA , it is clear from your discursive writing style that you are an intelligent guy. At the same time it is transparent that you are engaging yourself in Motivated Reasoning ~ you have set your goal, your conclusion, and you have assiduously worked backwards to justify it to yourself.
I am sure that part of you is aware of that . . . while part of you rejects that insight. Part of you wishes to test yourself against those damn mainstreamers at SkepticalScience website ~ maybe "they" will give you added information to resolve your conflict, either by allowing you to be persuaded to the mainstream . . . or by allowing part of you to achieve a (self-assessed) performative triumph of intellectual conquest.
And maybe part of it is to enjoy the hubris of "not running with the crowd". But whatever way, it comes back to the exercise of Motivated Reasoning.
Good luck in your journey to self-understanding.
(And yes, we all need improvement ! )
********
Rob Honeycutt : quite right, the biological sciences field is many orders of magnitude more complex than climate physics. No comparison !
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:20 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Honestly, TWFA, I cannot decipher what any of this post @51 has to do with anything I just explained to you.
The broad consensus on anthropogenic climate change isn't like a medical study. Think of it this way, it's probably more like the connection between smoking and lung cancer. It's impossible to isolate the precise mechanism that links cigarette smoke to lung cancer, but study after study shows there is a very clear link. But, the tobacco industry wanted everyone to believe the connection was "too complex" or "too imprecise" or "the product of groupthink" or any of many similar arguments.
Ironically, it is literally the exact same people who devised the tobacco industry's response campaigns to the overwhelming science on smoking that created the fossil fuels industry's campaign of doubt about climate science.
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TWFA at 07:49 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
I get the variability, it's no different from clinical studies, the challenges of getting good data, running controls and placebos, they, too are all over the map and it takes time for a trend to be identified. At least in those we have millions of patients to experiment with, collect data from and alter course of treatment in a short time frame, but we only have one planetary patient, and the treatments proposed are extremely costly and disruptive, and also unfair to many different minorities, an extreme example being Inuits with ATVs and snow machines expected to either erect a solar farm and electrify them or go back to dog teams. Shouldn't they do their part too?
I was in the field of medical imaging and informatics, PACS and EHR systems and such, awarded eight patents and founded several startups. I hired brilliant ADHD software developers who were often wrong but never in doubt, when they would have a major system upgrade they wished to perform they would ask if they could do it during their work day. Why? Not because their favorite show was on that night, that show was in front of them 18 hours a day. No, it's because that's when our customers were also busiest, and that way if there was a problem they would discover it much more quickly as every button on my phone lit up with screaming radiologists.
I would explain to them that our clients are customers, not lab rats, you exist to serve them, they do not exist for you to write perfect code, you will do it at midnight and be prepared roll-back at 5. In the climate debate the client is the people, not the planet, as George Carlin put so well decades ago, the planet will be fine long after we are gone, so as in medicine the first rule is to do no harm.
What I see going on here is similar, folks who want to move ahead full blast, others like me who wish to see more data and test the models, others who could care less either way, either because they feel they have no say in it anyway or have the wealth to both buy a pair of Teslas AND a second home up north.
Taking the current models and applying them to some other data set than the one they were developed upon is the right way to test them. Perhaps it is classified, but thermocline levels and or temperatures obtained by submarine or sonobouy, some type of terrestrial sub-surface measurements, well water temperatures, whatever, anything that gets us as far away from the noise of weather and cloud reflectivity, there has to be something else out there we have been measuring for the past and will be for the next fifty years that can show the same trend, no matter how small, no matter the lag. There must be some other canary out there.
Temperatures above and below the weather would put to rest silly arguments about hurricanes in the East Pacific, which if never making landfall two centuries ago may never have been recorded, let alone measured, and other sensationalism thanks to mass media and competing information leading to mass hysteria.
Kind of reminds me of the windshield pit fiasco in the Pacific NW back in the fifties when some thought fallout from bomb tests in the Marshall Islands was doing something to their cars, the consensus among the social psychiatrists being that for the first time folks were looking AT their windshields instead of THROUGH them.
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:32 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... "It's not that I don't care about surface temperature, I care about whether the models for surface temperature have been applied to predicting temperatures above and below, a perfectly logical query."
Yes, this is a perfectly reasonable and logical query. So, pause right there before you move forward with any assumptions.
The answer to the best of my understanding:
Yes, climate models are applied to the surface and up through the various layers of the atmosphere. Once you get above the surface you run into challenges with measuring those various layers. The surface has the advantage of extensive direct data, above that you have to rely on either balloon data (which is sparse) or satellite data (which is an indirect measure of temperature and actually poorly measures some layers, like the mid-troposphere).
For deep ocean models, I'm unsure. But I would imagine those would have little affect on shorter time scales and is more important measure as a longer term reservoir for accumulating heat energy.
For sea surface or near surface modeling, there is a lot of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere, thus those are going to be inherent to climate models.
The other important point to understand about climate modeling is that they are, as mentioned earlier, "boundary conditions" modeling.
You can think of "initial conditions" modeling like the hurricane storm tracks you see on the news. We know where the model is and the models project the likelihood of where it will track over the following days.
Climate models are different. What they're doing is running model ensembles. Essentially, they're doing longer term weather/climate runs, over and over, in order to see what the mean state is. As they say, "All models are wrong, but they are skillful." We're not asking models to tell us whether this year will be warmer or cooler than the last. We know that's inherently noisy. We're asking climate models to tell us, over time, how much warming we can expect to see.
Understand that? They're wrong because one model run will say next year is warmer and another will say it's cooler. But they are "skillful" because they can tell us, with a high degree of confidence, the longer term trend for the climate system.
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TWFA at 06:09 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
It's not that I don't care about surface temperature, I care about whether the models for surface temperature have been applied to predicting temperatures above and below, a perfectly logical query.
If we have a model that can replicate historical data there is a good chance it can predict as well, but if the models have only been devloped using surface data, adjusted to match history, then you should be able to take the exact same model and run it to replicate historical and predicted data for temperatures aloft or level of thermocline below.
Sure the values and rate of response will be different, but the trends should not, and that is what I am looking to see. As you know, any temperature observtions at flight levels would be at pressure altitude and need to be corrected to true altitude. There are decades of oceanic route position reports, I seem to recall it was typically four or five on the North Atlantic tracks, probably there are double that on the Pacific, don't know if that data is in a silo somewhere or integrated into other, but it is historical and of interest to me.
At one site on "the other side" they showed data that indicated temperatures aloft at 200 hPA have NOT been increasing above 1.7 per century but the models predicted 4-4.5, so of course ALL the models are crap.
When I explained to them I would not expect them to if the readings were at pressure altitudes because I know from experience that unless there is a significant diversion from the standard lapse rate, weather, they will not... even if all the forests on earth were afire, at a 200 hPA pressure altitude of about 40,000' I would expect virtually no variation, and at 5,000' without including the world inferno lots of noise in the signal and would want to look deeper at such a data set to make sure it was as closer to standard atmosphere conditions as possible and corrected to AGL.
As you can imagine, I got the same kind of crap there, what does it matter, I don't have a clue, all the studies studying all the models of the other studies show them all to be wrong, etc., etc. Nobody is right all the time, but nobody is wrong all the time either, even if they turn out to be right for the wrong reasons.
So, my search will go on, if there is anybody else here who understands what I am looking for and has something to offer other than, "Get a PhD in climate studies, otherwise believe what we say" I would love to hear from you.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:14 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
On the PIREP's topic, the PIREP's themselves would be a terrible data source, just because they're sparse and inconsistent. But, I've always thought it would be a worthy research project to work with Garmin in order to pull ongoing data from airborne aircraft using their avionics. That might provide somewhat better coverage and consistency. Maybe.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:57 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... What I'm trying to convey to you is, climate science is a complex topic and you need to spend far more time than you currently have to get a good grasp of what is happening. Instead, you're starting from assumptions and are merely grasping for arguments to support that position, without endeavoring to skeptically research the topics.
"I am looking for information, not confirmation..."
This is clearly not the case, though, being that everything you've stated or "asked" has been fundamentally based in rejection of the established science.
Look, TWFA, there is a lot to understand about this topic. I am not an expert. But what I have done is taken the time to read a large body of the available research. There are many here on this site who are willing and capable of offering answers, but you're going to have to approach the subject with a little bit more humility and awareness of your current state of understanding.
If you have real questions, ask them. But don't be offended if people here give you answers you don't want to hear.
For instance, when you say, "I am just looking for a few that have run the models against some mid tropospheric level data set, or deep ocean temperatures, or anything other than surface temperatures." This is exactly what I'm talking about.
Why would you dismiss surface temperature? What about mid-troposphere temps do you think is more interesting? There are plenty of articles on this site discussing those topics already. All of those articles reference the available peer reviewed science.
Every time I hear someone call themselves an "independent thinker" it raises a huge red flag for me. Why would you believe every climate scientist out there is not an independent thinker? Why would you assume the broad consensus on climate change isn't a product of independent thinking across a broad spectrum of experts in their relative fields?
In order to truly be an independent thinker you first need to inform yourself about the subject you're thinking about. Without doing that, you're merely a rejectionist. If you're offended at being told this, perhaps you're just looking for an easy exit.
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TWFA at 01:28 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Rob, with the PIREPs it was not bizarre at all, I was meaning for historical oceanic data that predates the modern technology, in my day position reports on HF always included wind and temperature. Attack, attack, attack... it's amazing.
Anyway, you keep repeating the same thing, "You obviously are a numb-nuts who hasn't read anything, there are tons of studies and everybody is in agreement, get lost".
I know how to read, have been reading clinical and technical papers all my life, I don't want to screen abstracts or read tons of studies, I am just looking for a few that have run the models against some mid tropospheric level data set, or deep ocean temperatures, or anything other than surface temperatures. You claim to be the expert, presumably you have read all the studies so you should be able to know right where to look, perhaps cite from memory. I am not the expert, but that does not make me a potted plant.
I am not here to argue, nor am I here to cheer or circle-jerk, I came here hoping to learn, there are plenty of advocacy sites on both sides, lots of noise, I was hoping this was not one of them.
There are two areas where I need more information, one is the whole cloud reflectivity and convective energy transfer process, and the other is whether the models we are relying upon work with data sets other than surface temperature, you can't have surface temperatures going up but everything else remaining the same and claim "the planet" is getting warmer.
I have children and grandchildren who look to me for advice because they know I am an independent thinker who has done pretty damn well so far thinking independently, I am looking for information, not confirmation, if this site is just another cheering section I will be happy to move on, nothing new to learn here.
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John Mason at 00:56 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA #41:
"Yes, Michael, and I can confidently predict that an even more powerful hurricane will someday top that one even if we are carbon neutral or dead, on the other hand I can state with equal confidence that at some time in the past a more powerful one hit Acapulco as well, there is no way one can prove that the one yesterday was "of greater force than any previously occuring in the East Pacific Ocean"."
One of the last dinosaurs standing: "I'm sure there have been worse asteroid strikes in the past". -
Rob Honeycutt at 00:26 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA: "... if the atmosphere and planet is heating up, so should the temperatures at 20,000' or 40,000', or even deep ocean temperatures, there should be plenty of data available at least for the former, weather balloons and PIREPs, it should track the models just as well and if not we would need to know why."
Each of these comments from you is a fascinating demonstration of how little you've actually looked at the science of climate change. There is published research on all these topics and there is a very broad, deep agreement across research fields that human emissions of CO2 are the primary cause of warming of the past 50 years.
And the PIREP bit is espectially bizarre. Being a pilot myself I know what you're talking about, but you should also know that PIREP's tend to be few and far between. They're helpful but not reliable. In addition, those PROG charts you pull in to ForeFlight or download via ADS-B in, those are produced through the same models used for climate models. They're merely initial conditions modeling (weather) as opposed to boundary conditions modeling (climate).
All this and still you have yet to say one word about Clauser's claims.
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:14 AM on 28 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA: "...one of the problems I have with all the models I have seen is that they appear to have been adjusted or tweaked to global surface temperature observations..."
This is a nice demonstration showing that you haven't spent any time at all seriously looking at climate models. You've merely made an assumption and make statements that support what you prefer to believe without ever taking a serious look at the data or reading the underlying science.
Do you understand that Syukuro Manabe recently won a Nobel Prize precisely because his models from the late 1960's have been so accurate.
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MA Rodger at 18:47 PM on 27 October 2023CO2 effect is saturated
chuck22 @709,
I would suggest it is more that Venus shows what a thick atmosphere does to climate while Mars shows it for a thin atmosphere. Both have an atmosphere comprising about 95% CO2. Yet the surface of Mars has zero GH-warming while on Venus it is an impressive +407ºC.
Venus has about 80% of the solar warning relative to Earth, this due to its higher albedo (left hand graphic below) which more than compensates for being closer to the Sun. Thus the "naked planet" temperature for Venus (230K) is lower that Earth's (254K). Venus has a 92 bar atmosphere and the clouds in such a thick atmosphere are a major insulation mechanism preventing IR across the entire spectrum from escaping to space from anywhere near the surface.
Zhong & Haig (2013) show (their Fig6b) that the climate forcing on Earth from CO2 (which at 389ppm provides with feedbacks GH-warming of +34ºC) would be perhaps trebled by CO2 levels up near the 90% mark, (Fig6b shows the direct forcing up to ~30% CO2) an unrealistically high level, but it does show that additional CO2 does not "saturate".
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Eclectic at 18:00 PM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA @41 :
you are still skirting the issue (on-topic for this thread) of whether John Clauser's ideas fall into the common fruitcake category or into the solitary genius category.
Overall evidence strongly favors the former ~ but I am sure that your readers here would be interested to see if you have some actual support for the latter category.
Are you holding back, because you fear to expose the good Dr Clauser to ridicule? Or even worse - expose him to redicule [which I gather may be some form of red-shifted ridicule] ??
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TWFA at 15:37 PM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Yes, Michael, and I can confidently predict that an even more powerful hurricane will someday top that one even if we are carbon neutral or dead, on the other hand I can state with equal confidence that at some time in the past a more powerful one hit Acapulco as well, there is no way one can prove that the one yesterday was "of greater force than any previously occuring in the East Pacific Ocean".
Do you even realize how rediculous such a claim appears to be? Chance and time alone disqualify such a statement just as vastness and time assure there is life elsewhere in the universe, but neither can be proved without evidence. A CQ or TV signal of Hitler opening the '36 Olympics coming from Vega would be evidence, but proving something never happened, or something that but for reality would have otherwise happened, is extremely difficult, sort of like proving Schrödinger's cat to be alive or dead without opening the box. Until such time as we can open that box a larger hurricane in Acapulco in either the past or future will both exist and not exist.
But moving on, one of the problems I have with all the models I have seen is that they appear to have been adjusted or tweaked to global surface temperature observations, which is not necessarily a flaw in their creation but possibly a failure in their useful application, and it seems to me that there must be some other data set those models could be run against, with and without the anthroprogenic forcing, basically turning it on and off and looking for the same results on a different sample set, which would clearly show the model works elsewhere, and possibly everywhere.
Is it the lamp or the light bulb? Screw in another bulb from another lamp and see what happens, if it comes on it was the bulb, if still off it might be the lamp or both bulbs... unless the one you screwed in was hot, in which case it is the lamp. Pretty simple truth table, if the atmosphere and planet is heating up, so should the temperatures at 20,000' or 40,000', or even deep ocean temperatures, there should be plenty of data available at least for the former, weather balloons and PIREPs, it should track the models just as well and if not we would need to know why.
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michael sweet at 12:47 PM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA:
There are mountains of evidence that climate science has predicted in the past that can be currently reviewed. For example, climate scientists predicted that hurricanes would increase in force in the future. Just yesterday the city of Acapulco was destroyed by a hurricane of greater force than any previously occuring in the East Pacific Ocean. That was predicted in advance. Hansen predicted the future increase in temperature in his testimony to congress in 1989. His predictions have proven to be accurate.
You are asserting that people who have correctly predicted climate change for the past 100 years cannot be believed in their predictions for the next 20 years. Why do you think that scientists who have correctly predicted changes in the past will suddenly become unable to make correct predictions now? For the most part the predictions of scientists have been correct. A few things, like the increasing force of hurricanes, and sea level rise, have been underestimated by scientsts.
The time when
"until such time as the real world data and not just the modeled projections show it is clearly being being affected by our behavior"
was reached decades ago. The predictions made during the 60's and 70's have been validated by data. You are claiming that we can never predict anything because we do not remember what was predicted correctly in the past. The people at SkS remember the past projections and know that they validate the current projections.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:24 PM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... "...because the effects of cloud cover and weather is my primary area of interest I would appreciate links to that data."
Aside from your childish passage prior to this ask, there is a full body of research on cloud effects on climate. Perhaps you should endeavor to read the research instead of just assuming a preferred position.
One key clue that cloud effects aren't going to save us is merely the fact that, over the past million years we can see (through all kinds of paleo records) that the earth has gone through numerous glacial-interglacial cycles. We know the pacing and forcings that drive those cycles.
So, think about it. If cloud/weather effects were capable of offsetting changes in modern climate forcings, why would it not have done so over the past million years?
If what you're assuming were true, then we'd see no climate cycles because clouds/weather would always keep global temperature in equilibrium.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:10 PM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... May I ask, do you even know what Clauser's claims are?
I ask merely because you seem to be studiously avoiding addressing the merits any of them.
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TWFA at 11:44 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
Without a time machine the answer as to whether Clauser or "everybody else" is right or wrong is not and cannot as yet be known, theory is not an outcome, consensus is not data, only measurement is, as Spock would say, "Insufficient data, captain".
No, I am not claiming to be as intelligent or logical as Spock and you are not going to be able to insult or castigate me into agreement or silence. I and doubtless others do not find such an approach the least bit persuasive, and the biggest problem the experts have is being persuasive instead of dismissive.
Whether you like it or not there will be other old geezers like me and Clauser who have only earned their advanced degress in ignorance through a lifetime of experience and observations of nature, people, their predictions and outcomes, most recently all the peer reviewed scientists and experts claiming that a vaccine, a mask and two weeks to flatten the curve was all that was necessary to bring things to a halt, but in my case a serial entrepreneur and inventor investing in my own ideas and predictions as well as those of others.
We have learned that it is not the answers that make the case, it is the questions that precede them, and we know how to ask them. Do not dismiss the value of lay participation in an esoteric field, especially when it affects them directly, you never know where wisdom and breakthrough may come from.
I mean, who would ever expect that a dumb playwright without an advanced degree in probability theory like Bernard Shaw could ever be able to explain it to the masses in a public debate of his day not unlike the one we are engaged in right here.
However I am pleased to learn from you that we have some kind of recorded data of planetary cloud cover history, presumably from cave drawings forward, or perhaps Martian observations contained in journals carelessly left behind after landing and departing Nazca International Spaceport, instead of inferred or imputed data through a chain of supporting inferred or imputed data, and because the effects of cloud cover and weather is my primary area of interest I would appreciate links to that data.
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:41 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... "they certainly formed conclusions and they applied them."
Not to belabor an irrelevant point, but both took concepts and work from others (both paid for the rights) and leveraged them for their respective companies. I believe that would be business management, not applied science. The engineers they hired to further develop the software were doing a form of applied science.
Oh, and it was Xerox Parc who developed the first GUI, not 3M (Minnesota, Mining and Manufacturing).
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:27 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... When you say, "But there is no profit motive in mine, only preservation of my standard of living..." you're clearly not understanding that is inherently an economic motivation. Preservation of "your" way of life is a financial motive.
Al Gore, on the other hand, has primarily made his money being a long serving boardmember for Apple, being a major partner in a large VC firm, and through the sale of a major media company he started. As far as I'm aware, Gore's motivations on climate change are merely to prevent extensive damage to the global environmental systems that support life on this planet.
But, any discussion of motivations and/or Al Gore have absolutely nothing to do with the veracity of any of Clauser's statements on climate science.
Please, let us know when you would like to actually discuss Clauser's statements.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:01 AM on 27 October 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
wilddouglascounty,
There is an additional item of improved understanding regarding leadership to be looked into.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2023 highlights the following new item:
"Misinformation and the epistemic integrity of democracy"
This new item improves understanding of the dangers of, what can go wrong with, 'popularity and profitability based competition for leadership'.
Freedom for everyone to believe and do as they please does not develop sustainable improvements.
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Eclectic at 09:19 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA, you are skirting around the issue ~ of whether John Clauser is "yer average emeritus fruitcake" or whether he has achieved a brilliant Galileo-like stroke of genius . . . showing that all the prior scientific experts have been grossly wrong. While I do enjoy reading your discursive philosophical/lawyerly rhetoric, nevertheless you are failing to discuss the matter logically.
Please concentrate on whether Clauser is right or wrong about climate matters. (And note that the planetary history indicates that he is essentially wrong in his suppositions about clouds.) Do not dwell on whether Gore and/or Gates and/or China are offending your political identity issues or your personal economic-theory sensibiities.
Waffling discursions are quite easy ~ for instance , you will be aware of Kuebler-Ross's famous Five Stages of Grief. TWFA, you seem, climatically, to be showing the first two grief stages : Denial and Anger.
Have you reached the Bargaining stage (in hoping that that Clauser is right, despite a mountain of evidence that he is wrong) . . . or even the Depression stage? (Depression can indeed co-exist with the other stages of Anger etcetera.)
Are you fearful that the Acceptance stage threatens to change your inner character of personal identity? Personal change can be difficult for the ego to face up to ~ in the shorter run it's easier to keep in Denial.
See ~ rhetorical waffle is easy-peasy. And entertaining when it has an admixture of truth !
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TWFA at 07:45 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
How is it not?
Applied science is the use of the scientific method and knowledge obtained via conclusions from the method to attain practical goals.
Let's not get into the weeds over definitions, let's try to convey meaning, and to head off the next point of argument, they didn't invent them, Gates had a contract with IBM for the PC, Jobs saw a GUI at 3M, but they certainly formed conclusions and they applied them.
Now we have Al Gore and others who want to apply your conclusions upon the rest of us, like Gates and Jobs he has and others have profited immensly and have a vested interest in their experiment in climate control, but unlike Gates and Jobs if these folks have their way I will have no choice but participation in their experiment, just as if I had my way, wait for more data, they would be participating in mine.
But there is no profit motive in mine, only preservation of my standard of living and those of my descedents until such time as the real world data and not just the modeled projections show it is clearly being being affected by our behavior and beyond the control of nature or chance... at which point you would need to do something about China, currently participating in both experiments at once via dirty manufacturing of green products at a profit.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:40 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... Your previous post have been long and winding passages, so I'm trying to focus on your first claims. I would suggest here that your examples are both wrong and not applicable to the discussion of Clauser's claims.
Neither Gates nor Jobs invented what you're attributing to them. Neither of these advancements in computer applications were counter to any previous foundational sciences from which they were assembled.
This is wholly different from Clauser, who is essentially dismissing well established science without the benefit of having done any research in the field.
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:55 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... Just so you know, those do not fit the definition of "applied sciences." As well, neither of the advances in computer applications are attributable to Gates or Jobs.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:54 AM on 27 October 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
wilddouglascounty @4,
Reflecting on my response @4, I have some suggestions along the line of your request for "...a list of educational resources, incentives, and campaigns that put these recommendations front and center."
The first recommendation relates to your questions about 'leadership' (including public school board leadership). Learn about the candidates for leadership you can vote for and:
- do whatever you are able to do to support the candidates that most diligently promote and pursue learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others (they will likely be well aligned with the pursuit of the 80 recommendations).
- do whatever you are able to do to oppose the Other candidates. This would include being part of counter-protests when the type of harmful self-interested people the Other type of candidate try to get votes of support from publicly display their damaging (to Others) and unsustainable misunderstandings.
Some other things you could look into:
- "The Story of Stuff". This organization is focused on reducing consumption and reducing the harm done by the remaining consumption.
- "Project Drawdown" . This group is related to 360.org which is another group to look into.
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TWFA at 06:43 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
In the case of Gates, perceiving that a standard operating system as a hardware interface platform for multiple applications was one of the two keys to widespread adoption and utility of the technology, and with Jobs the GUI interface being the other, and he was just beginning. Prior to those two it was just "Big IT" with a monopoly market in main frame computers and application development, industrial process control and arcade games.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:42 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... Okay, so... What were the advancements in "applied sciences" made by Jobs and Gates?
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TWFA at 04:34 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
I suppose you are referring to advancements in "pure" science as opposed to "applied" science, or perhaps even need to explain to me just what your concept of "science" is. Gates and Jobs made advances in applied science, their accomplishments and the consequences obvious and without which all the prior advances in computer science would have remained in the lab the same way communications advances were locked up in Bell Laboratories until TPC (The Phone Company in "The President's Analyst) was broken up.
Inconveniently for the masterminds, people actually have to live in a world with a combination of nature and applied science, unlike lab rats they have the ability to resist those who wish to experiment with their lives and livelihoods.
So when you take theories in pure climate science and then try to apply it to, or at great expense or sacrifice impose it upon folks accustomed to individual liberty there are consequences, one of them being that, like a good doctor, you need to do a better job of explaining your diagnosis, prognosis and recommended treatment to your patients than simply proclaiming that all of you doctors know more about this than anybody else and you are all in agreement that the rest of us need psychotherapy or brain surgery.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:02 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
TWFA... Can you explain the scientific advancements made by Jobs and Gates that went contrary to the previous century of scientific research?
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TWFA at 02:47 AM on 27 October 2023John F. Clauser: the latest climate science-denying physicist
I seem to recall that Bill Gates and Steve Jobs did not have any peer reviewed papers on computer science when as teenagers they charted the future of computing and communications and folks invested millions into their unproved, non peer reviewed theories.
I think it is healthy to get outside observation and critique from folks with good minds that may not be "set". One does not have to be a specialist or have studied the field all his life to ask why if none of the current models can accurately reproduce what has happened over the last century why should we have faith in their predictions for the next?
And "faith" is what it is all about, because nobody can "prove" the future while in the present, but we can hopefully understand the present with results from the past... if we choose to pay attention to them, and that applies to far more than climate science.
When folks accuse others of being "deniers" it means they themselves must be "believers", neither can prove their case with facts, neither can prove something will or will not happen in the future until the future arrives, meaning until then we are talking about religion and not science. "Show me a video of God and I will believe" vs "How could all of this come to be without Him?" If 99% of alleged scientists agree on something either it is no longer science or they are not scientists, it is either religion or they are evangelists.
As a non-peer reviewed entrepreneur, renaissance man and pilot flying ABOVE clouds I have always marveled at the weather, the incredible energy conversion and transmission capacity of phase change and latent heat, for decades before Clauser came along I have been screaming about cloud reflectivity because I have seen it first hand... all that light beneath me is going back to space. 70% of the Earth's surface is water, from which clouds will form, temperature goes up, more clouds form, more reflection, less insolation.
It's not rocket science, or even computer science, put a pot of water on the stove, no matter how high the heat the water temperature never gets above boiling. If what Al Gore said at Davos this year were true, that the oceans are boiling, presumably not just where magma is erupting, it would have defied the laws of physics and thermodynamics, it would be impossible to capture and retain such heat with the 100% cloud cover we certainly would have.
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pattimer at 19:42 PM on 26 October 2023What’s the deal with carbon capture and storage?
I think an important point to make about CCS is that if in the future we successfully make use of CCS there will be benefits but it will not reverse the effects of past and present CO2 emissions. It will not replace lost glaciers, bring sea levels back down, etc. This is for the simple reason that when tipping points are crossed we creat a new Earth that will be around for millennia.
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chuck22 at 13:24 PM on 26 October 2023CO2 effect is saturated
Thanks, doesnt venus provide some evidence of what levels of CO2 would be needed to saturate?
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:57 AM on 26 October 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
Wilddouglascounty @4,
Someone may be able to "... highlight a list of educational resources, incentives, and campaigns that put these recommendations front and center ..."
But, I will start my response with a minor, but important, clarification of your opening comment (edits in bold) “... and then some news media is beginning to focus on how devious the fossil fuel investors are in using misinformation, disinformation, and obfuscation along the lines of the tobacco mercenaries while some media players, especially the ‘social type’, continue to be part of the misinformation and disinformation efforts.”
As for the questions asked ... the answers involve the need for increased critical thinking in pursuit of increased awareness and improved understanding of how to be less harmful and more helpful to others and seeking understanding of the bias of any information source (note that SkS is an excellent resource for that).
Having a bias towards helpful well-reasoned understanding of ‘all of the relevant evidence’ will produce results that differ from other sources. Such presentations can still be ‘claimed to be biased’. But ‘evidence of bias’ does not make a source ‘unreliable and unhelpful’. It is undeniably more damaging to be biased against more fully informing how to be less harmful and more helpful to others. Examples of that are the ways that Fox News and WUWT have a history of being ‘more biased to be misleading’ than the diversity of sources pointed to by SkS (which also all have a bias).
The efforts you are asking for already exist. And they have existed for decades. Note that the report and its 80 recommendations are substantially based on the following sources of improved awareness and understanding: The UN Development Programme, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the IPCC Reports. Many political groups, other leadership contenders (business and political), and advocacy groups are aligned with the pursuit of that type of learning and participated in developing the improved understanding.
The problem is not a lack of effort to increase awareness and improve understanding of how to be less harmful and more helpful. The problem is the success of efforts by people who have interests that are contrary to that type of learning.
In addition to the many helpful actions of the SkS team, a broad spectrum of books help understand why learning to be less harmful and more helpful is not more popular. I am especially biased towards (fond of - like) “The 9.9 Percent” by Matthew Stewart. "The 9.9 Percent" is an evidence-based book (loads of references) that does of good job of explaining how the most powerful 0.1% win by getting unjustified support from the rest of the top 10% (the 9.9% who also want to maintain unjustified perceptions of status relative to Others). It includes understanding that the actions of the undeserving top 10% are excused by a portion of the remaining 90% because of divisive misunderstanding appealing to ‘personal biases’ that motivates them to try to be 'perceived to be higher-status' like the unjustified top 10%.
In a nut-shell the required solution involves compromising the ability of the undeserving among the top 0.1 Percent (in wealth and power) to get support from, or be excused by, the top 10% or any of the 90%. Note: 0.1% of the current global population is 8 million. And 10% is 800 million. So over-coming the power of the most unjustified 10 Percent is a massive challenge.
Things are improving in a sputtering way like: two steps up, three steps back, two more steps up, then another step up, then a step back. Undeniably faster improvement would be better (lots of damage to Others caused by delayed reduction of harm done by the Few). However, the tragically slow improvement, and resulting larger amount of damage done, is not the fault of, or due to, a lack of effort by the people pursuing being less harmful and more helpful to others.
