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Comments 2851 to 2900:
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Eclectic at 09:47 AM on 28 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Not sure how it would enter the overall dollar calculation, but there may well be circumstances where there is value in a generation system that can give close-to-zero marginal cost (short or longer term). That would apply especially to solar installations, but slightly less so for wind.
There is that ~ and the difficulty of long-term LCOE estimations of "renewables" which are rapidly changing in technology & build costs.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:03 AM on 28 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
In addition, capacity factor is irrelevant for LCOE and investment decisions since the grid buys power based on the lowest available price, not on when the power is available.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:57 AM on 28 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug... Yes, what you're comparing is the "up front capital costs" which all new facilities incur. The up front capital costs for FF is lower, but then you're burdened with supplying that facility with fuel for the lifetime of its existence. Whereas, the up front cost of renewables are higher but they require no fuel for their lifetime. This is exactly what LCOE is.
Investors do not base their decisions only on up front capital costs but rather on the ROI they will see over the lifetime of the project. Renewables also generally have a shorter lifespan for any given installation, but in that span of time the investor reaps the entire return faster and moves on to a new project well before they can see their full return on a dollar-for-dollar investment for a FF based facility.
This is why renewables are now scaling exponentially.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:16 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Nigelj:
My comment @ 74 about people accusing SkS of deleting comments it does not agree with was not directed at you. Such accusations often appear in the final stages of a commenter breaking the moderation rules - and are typically deleted (usually shortly before a commenter's posting privileges are revoked). Regular readers would not see them.
My view of bias in web sites, news sources, etc. is more a case of "this is what it is" rather than support of the actions of those that do it. My father worked in the newspaper business for many years, and there was a time when all major news sources made a concerted effort to provide actual balance. Different papers had their leanings, but they also had principles and a conscience. Today, I see many "news" sources that just don't care whether what they print is true or not.
The biggest problem is that so many people cannot recognize horse pucky for what it is. That is not solved by "more people speaking louder". The long, slow process of learning a subject is lost in the fire hose of short, wrong, "anything that sells" crap that snake oil salesmen know will trigger people's worst emotions and separate them from their hard-earned dollars. It's easier to convince them that everything they don't agree with is "fake news" - even though the person saying "fake news" is the fakest of the lot.
Alex Jones may be learning a lesson on what is allowed. Or, it may be a case where he has already learned how to move his money to places where law suits can't reach it. Law suits only cover the most obscene cases, though. Canada has laws against "hate speech", but they are rarely used. The cases that hit the news are often associated with Holocaust denial. "Free Speech" is the usual defence (and usually fails).
Elon Musks's "free speech" position does not seem to include letting people mention alternatives to Twitter. (Links in comment 58.) His moderation policy seems to be "in flux" (to put it mildly). I tend to not trust people that say one thing while they are doing another.
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Doug Cannon at 08:10 AM on 28 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Rob Honeycutt #367
My numbers include all cost, not just installation. I didn't assume any MW/yr, or discount rate from which you could compute LCOE. With the same assumptions My numbers would agree with eia except they may be 2 years out of date.
You have to compare the total solar cost/ MWhr excluding taxpayer payments ($36.10/Mwhr) to just the variable cost avoided by not operating the combined cycle unit when solar is available: $37.05-8.56 =$28.49/Mwhr. That's basically what we're doing today.
What I was addressing was the the up front capital cost and the lower capacity factor show a major investment. Actually the 2022 eia report show this even more clearly
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nigelj at 05:51 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Bob Loblaw at 74
Thanks for the comments. I get where you are coming from.
One clarification. I didnt mean that this website specifically deletes comments and I wasn't being critical of them for doing that. I was just speaking generally.
This websites moderation policy actually seems generally quite well considered to me. Comments are deleted if they ramble off topic, make wild claims without reference to scientific literature or that just get repetitive. People only have to obey a few simple rules to get their opinion published. Some people just resist this then get all agitated. They are either arrogant or just not very bright.
The point is this website doesnt delete opinions just because it doesnt agree with them. People get a generally fair go. So the level of 'censorship' on this website is acceptable, but I would say its right at the upper limit of whats appropriate.
Yes Fox News is absolutely selective and biased. However this is not an excuse for us to do ever do the same. We should always strive to be objective. If there is a bias or adherence to some ideology it should be advertised: The economist.com does this nicely in its mission statement but I cant find thething now to copy and paste. It was something along the lines that they lean centre right economically and towards free trade but are not adverse to governments having some involvement in the economy. And that they lean liberal socially. So readers know their philosophical leaning
Yes we all get that there have to be some limits on free speech. Its entirely about where one draws the line in the sand. Governments impose some limits on free speech. I have no problem with that in principle and generally they are fairly minimal in western countries and that is to my preference.
The NZ governmnet goes slightly beyond some countries because it has laws against racist speech and this makes sense to me for reasons stated up thread. Its been considering hate speech law but has given up for now, because its so difficult to define hate speech and there has been a lot of push back against potentially suppressing discussion because almost anything could be labelled hate. This seems like a valid concern to me.
But its not only governments that can limit free speech. My main concern is what websites do and I lean towards fairly minimal moderation. You and Electic seem to lean towards quite strong censorship on websites. Six months ago my views were virtually identical to Electics on this. So similar its quite startling. Now I just wonder if strong censorship might do more harm than good. I think the trigger was our governmnets attempts to bring in hate speech laws. It just doesnt seem possible to define adequately or practically viable and is too likely to suppress opinion, and just too Orwellian for me.
I'm sure you and Eclectic would do a good fair minded job of moderation of such issues, but its other people I worry about.
So back to Twitter. It is not entirely clear what Musk is up to yet. However it appears he leans strongly towards libertarian values and free speech and against censorship, and it appears he is not going to be banning people or deleting comments unless they are inciting criminal activity or are just being extremely verbally abusive and bullying.
One problem is there isnt another website offering a similar service to Twitter to my knowledge. Given I have my doubts about hate speech laws, and the lack of alternatives to Twitter, I dont think this website should feel it has to abandon Twitter at this stage. FWIW.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:05 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
This new NPR item "Why Republican elites backed Trump: power, belonging ... and voter pressure" is about one person's experience and personal learning journey through the harmful changes of the Republican Party, changes that predated Trump becoming the leader of the GOP.
There appear to be parallels to the SkS Twitter dilemma. To be helpful requires figuring out how to continue to be helpful when an organization you have developed an identity within drifts towards increased harmful misunderstanding, is pulled away from the pursuit of learning/teaching to be less harmful and more helpful to Others.
Ultimately, the harmful devolution of an organization may get to the point where efforts to help reduce harmful misunderstanding among the members becomes a waste of time. It is helpful to build a presence in alternative organizations. Those alternatives are then ready to be more fully moved to should the harmfully devolving organization and its members become increasingly resistant to Bayesian Learning.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:52 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @75... "Staying open minded is a bother, a torment even, and thats where being tolerant comes in play."
As the saying goes, "It's good to keep an open mind, but not so much that your brain falls out."
In other words, an open mind is far from "a bother." It's fundamental to the scientific process. Here at SkS, what is expected is that you bring substantive points to the table and be able to defend your position with the backing of published research. Making up your own theories on the spot doesn't fly. Repeating unsubstantiated theories doesn't fly. You need to do your homework, do your research, and thoroughly think through what you're saying.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:45 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
What is my "rot in hell" story, Peppers?
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peppers at 02:05 AM on 28 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Rob and all,
Each have a proper point and Rob is close to my premise. And Rob, I love your 'rot in hell' story!
I was relating to truth. This also means scientific truth, and explains why the scientific process never closes to new input, angles or ideas.
I perfectly understand that SS is hampered with a repeat of the same 3-4 dozen premises which are not bringing new in, AND that area comes under abuse by ill intending visitors.
Folks can limit speech, but at the cost of new input and at the cost of working ever further and less forward toward truth. Staying open minded is a bother, a torment even, and thats where being tolerant comes in play.
The educated minds here may like this Einsteinian favorite of mine. 2 boys, one on a train slowing moving and one on the ground. The train boy throws a ball straight out. The boy on the train sees it travel straight out and down. The boy on the ground sees the ball fall in a great barabolic curve overhead. The key to this universal example is that the experience of each boy, as different as they each were, are both perfectly, defendably and repeatably true. Each can argue til the end of days, but it was the same one event for both, and both are right.
I believe that I want input. I did not bring the topic up of death threats and obvious 'Imminent crime" exceptions to free speech, and those who have brought that up ( correctly but) have missed my point.
Bob, my wife adds that folks do not act in person like online. Maybe some form of liability online may be coming, to inhibit people from acting badly. The ability to sue or something. Then they hide their identity... Not an easy problem.
Best all. D
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Doug Cannon at 02:04 AM on 28 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
To MA Rodger, re #369
Thanks for your input. That's about 40% less than my rough estimate of 200 million acres.
I think I can summarize the various replies to my query:
Yes, but it would be extremely difficult and we're too committed to renewables to focus elsewhere.
Signing off. Thanks to all.
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Eric (skeptic) at 01:39 AM on 28 December 2022What on Earth is a polar vortex? And what’s global warming got to do with it?
Thanks for that nicely balanced article. For the recent event the AO index went negative. Negative AO is not necessary for an Arctic outbreak but it's indication of a north-south tendency in the jet stream. Also if negative AO leads to an outbreak, that outbreak could be anywhere in the NH and may not make the U.S. centric news in the U.S.
So a logical question to ask is what is the trend of AO? No trend: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml. The papers by Francis a few years ago referenced the AO starting late fall and winter. That makes sense because the anomalous heat release from refreezing open water is highest in the fall continuing into winter. Arctic tempeature deviations from normal are highest in winter: ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php. But consistently higher in the fall.
The CPC website provides a rendering of JFM AO: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml. Perhaps a positive trend. One paper claiming a jet waviness trend used data ending in 2013. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005 That's not convincing anymore given the newer data with opposite trend.
To show a connection, someone will need to take an index like AO and the temperature data e.g. DMI and look for changes in the index corresponding to increases in fall warmth shown in the temperature data starting around day 250.
It seems likely that we would see some correlation in the winter data from negative AO to the many of the spikes of warming shown in DMI. That would be correlation but would not mean the temperature spikes caused negative AO. More likely the opposite and a careful analysis of timing might tease that out.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:53 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
nigelj @ 64 asks "But what about the website refusing to allow comments or opinions that they just dont like?"
SkS is often accused of that, but deletion of portions or entire comments usually starts after someone has posted the same thing several times and is not listening to answers.
...but in the web writ large, so what? Web sites can filter their material any way they want. Free speech suppressed? No. There are lots of other web sites someone can post to, and they can start their own web site if they want. "Free speech" does not entitle someone to force an unwilling audience to hear them.
News organizations are quite capable of being extremely selective in what they publish. Is Fox News "fair and balanced"? Is Tucker Carlson interested in presenting a balance discussion of topics? There are lot of examples of major "news" organizations with terrible bias on many issues.
Forty years ago, I worked overseas for several months, and I used shortwave radio to get news. Three sources were easy to pick up (strong signals), and I categorized them this way:
- Voice of America, with a message that communists were all going to rot in hell.
- Radio Moscow, with a message that capitalists were all going to rot in hell.
- Evangelical Christian stations, with a message that nearly everyone was going to rot in hell.
Bias in information sources on the Internet is a serious problem, but it is not new, and it is not a "Free Speech" issue.
All these commercial sources are selling something. Bums in the seats/eyes on the screen - grist for the advertisers.
Twitter will survive in some form as long as advertisers want to associate their products with the material that brings in readers that will buy products. As discussed in the OP, SkS needs to decide the pros and cons of continuing to participate in Twitter.
Limits to "Free Speech" come in when governments enact legislation to regulate content. As we have discussed, there have always been limits to "Free Speech" - libel and slander laws, creating a public disturbance, hate speech, etc. The Internet is a new beast - in part because it is international, in part because of its speed of spreading information, in part because individual users do not risk facing their "opponents" in the flesh world. If some people's behaviour in the real world matched their online behaviour, riots would ensue and people would end up in jail.
Not an easy problem.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:23 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Slumgullionridge @71:
Note that Skeptical Science is a volunteer-operated group. Resources are limited. Even our stock of "Myth Rebuttals" is hard to keep up-to-date.
We do publish a weekly "New Research" summary, but much of that content is automatically generated. As Eclectic notes, our strength is in our stock of rebuttals.
Comments are driven by whoever decides to comment, and yes it is often difficult to see detailed scientific discussion. Too often it is the same old, tired, uniformed myths being repeated by people that are not willing to read the material they are posting under (or the comments they get back).
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Bob Loblaw at 23:15 PM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
To see the annual uptake in the link in comment 366, you have to read past the first page/Introduction. Further down, they have a section titled "Annual Carbon Accumulation Rates". There, they give a figure of 2.0 tCha/yr.
They also refer to it as "the rate of carbon accumulation in aboveground biomass" [emphasis added]. As I noted above, soil carbon, leaf litter, and dead branches. etc. (usually called "detritus") can be important carbon storage reservoirs in many forests.
Forestry practices can have major consequences on soil carbon and detritus. For example, after clearing a section of boreal forest to harvest timber, the land becomes a strong carbon source as the soil carbon decomposes due to increases sunlight and warmer soil temperatures. This is a much larger loss of carbon than any gains from rapid young tree growth.
So Doug Cannon's "solution" is not the panacea he thinks it is.
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MA Rodger at 21:01 PM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
The source of the 77.5 t(CO2)/acre quoted @258 is shown in the link @366. It is not a figure for annual sequestration (which is evidently being expected @358 and which would be a few percentage points of this 77.5t figure) but total sequestration. And I think it is too low. It is derived from cocoa plantations so a figure which may not be representative of replanted global woodlands.
In numbers I am more familiar with, 77.5t(CO2)/acre is (as the link says) 191.6t(CO2)/ha or [x100/3.664=] 5,200t(C)/sq km.
Over the period 2010-19, there has been 53M ha of lost tropical forest (according to OurWorldInData). And since AD1850, the figure given is 1,400M ha. The Global Carbon Project give budgets showing estimated emissions from land-use-change (this mainly due to deforestation) as 13Gt(C) for 2010-19 and 203Gt(C) since AD1850. These numbers suggest a carbon sequestration intensity for natural woodland of 24,500t(C)/sq km or 14,500t(C)/sq km, the former figure tropical, the latter perhaps global. These numbers are far greater than that given in the #366 link.
We can dodge calculating the annual uptake by considering how many sq km of forest would need to be planted to draw down today's annual CO2 emissions (which would be necessary to stabalise GHG forcing). That would be roughly 500,000 sq km or 0.3% of global land, or 0.5% of the 100M sq km global productive land, annually. Note that globally 38M sq km is currently forested, and a similar amount would be naturally scrub or grassland so also not very useful for sequestering our CO2. Thus the potential for land available to sequester our FF CO2 emissions would be somewhere near 25M sq km and such a level of replanting would provide sequestration for perhaps 50 years of our FF emissions at present levels of FF-use.
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Eclectic at 18:06 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Slumgullionridge @71 :
Fair enough. SkepticalScience was set up as an educational resource. With its long list of Most Used Climate Myths , it provides you (or anyone) a reasonably quick & efficient way to gain scientific knowledge about climate. You can wade through the Myths one after the other, in turn. Or if you already have moderately good background knowledge, then you can pick out those Myths which fill the gaps (and read the discussions of the peer-reviewed studies, to be found in the comments columns there). I must confess I have not found a better website for that educational purpose.
The problem then becomes: what do you do when you have achieved a high passing grade in the comprehension of climate science? I do not mean by that, the achievement of mastery & expertise in all the minutiae & technicalities, I mean, enough knowledge to see that the mainstream climate science is correct ~ and the skeptics/contrarians haven't a leg to stand on (despite their repetitious assertions).
I guess you then consider retiring to your cabin by the lake, and dismissing the climate problem from your mind. Or you consider spending some time on the subsequent aspect ~ what to actually do, in terms of political science, ethics, and so on. Plenty of room there for hot-headed conversations . . . most of which crop up in the ephemeral/daily topic threads (such as the one where you are now posting).
Some amount of rhetoric & pomposity is almost inescapable in discussing political matters. ~ Just the nature of the beast.
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slumgullionridge at 16:43 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
I have been with Skeptical Science for about 6 months. I joined on a recommendation of a colleague of mine, a climate science associate who is a peer review committeeperson serving as Editor for the authors of a new study to be published in spring. I'm struck by the plethora of social science commentary on this site, contrasted to my expectation to be exposed to peer-reviewed hard science. I wanted to see commentary on the progress of climate science, instead it seems like the comments belong in a compendium of social science...which I have a full library of, behind my desk in English 301. I do appreciate the expansive listing of peer-reviewed studies precedent to the "comments" rhetoric, but I was hoping to see commentary about the studies, not so much about political science, ethics, or philosophy.
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Rob Honeycutt at 16:38 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
I'm usually the perennial optimist, but when it comes to Twitter I genuinely believe it's a lost cause. The fundamental business model is predicated on the need for revenues, by way of the fact it is a centralized business with investors and a large base of employee/engineers. The way they generate revenue is to code algorithms so that interations between users generate maximum activity to generate the most revenue possible. That maximum activity is primarily going to be a function of users attacking each other. But the company has to keep a lid on the exchanges in order to maintain advertisers for revenue.
I think Twitter was (prior to Musk) doing it's best to thread that needle, and that meant no one was ever really happy with the situation. Elon Musk's version of the business model was merely to come in and take one side on all arguments without fully understanding what he was doing.
My personal opinion is that Twitter is a total loss. I think it will be out of business in the next 12 to 18 months.
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slumgullionridge at 15:55 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
I hope that Skeptical Science does not leave Twitter. I'm a mature, educated adult, an English Professor and am world travelled. I can tell the difference between types of speech and am not uncomfortable having to sift through such material to get to where I would like to go. I do have a neighborhood family that chooses to live in a home surrounded by "refuse" and the whiff of marijuana, but I can navigate around that without analyzing who's being "harmful" or "hateful" or "pompous" or "full of rhetoric"...and I'm hopeful all of you can navigate around your definitions of "odious" as well.
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Eclectic at 15:04 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Nigelj @67 :
Agreed. Woke is nowadays an ugly term. AFAICT it started as a somewhat light-hearted label, and then was seized by the non-woke and used as an all-purpose bludgeon in the identity-politics game. The word has now become almost meaningless, other than distinguishing "them" from "us the good people".
Sad when any meaningful word loses its meaning. For example, in the USA the word "socialist" has no actual meaning for 90% of the population. It is just a bludgeon used by many politicians. Impossible to have a genuine discussion using that word, because the hearer automatically short-circuits his brain into "evil enemy ... evil enemy ... Spawn of Satan ... etc." [Shades of "1984" language-shaping, eh!] And yet the same hearer is happy to accept his farm subsidy or his Social Security cheque or his Medicare-ized hospital treatment, etcetera.
Possibly, in time, the term Woke can be rehabilitated into something light-hearted and useful . . . by overusing the word and applying it to everything in sight (and especially to right-wing attitudes & activities). By making it so greasy that it can't be grasped as a weapon.
Back on topic ~ for Twitter etcetera I would prefer to be over-censored than under-censored. Much less harm done, that way. Those who wish to have an intelligent public conversation, can find indirect ways & allusions to discuss issues (by treading a tad carefully). And the truly anti-social citizens will always continue to use their echochambers & dark spaces ~ but they won't get condoned or "normalized" in the public gaze.
To some extent, laws follow public sentiment. But the converse also applies ~ and George Bernard Shaw points out how laws can shape public sentiment, over time. Useful, to start with good laws. (Think: the Anti-Slavery laws).
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:20 PM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug @363... "It would take little or no up front capital investment to continue with FF."
This is also incorrect. All forms of generation have a useful lifetime and eventually need to be decommissioned and replaced. What is happening is much of the new added generation as well as replacement generation is being filled with some form of renewables. Renewables are currently scaling exponentially.
Moreover, the cost of FF sources is rising as renewables continue to fall in cost. The previous link to the EIA LCOE report this year includes the cost of grid level storage since those cost are now starting to fall below the levelized cost of peaker plants.
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nigelj at 12:14 PM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Eclectic @66
The woke label annoys me as well, however these days Im quite happy to be labelled woke and I tend to respond that yes Im woke because I dont like bigotry and racism. Whats wrong with that? They grind their teeth about that.
I promoted the normally accepted minimal constraints on free speech, and Peppers did agree, but one gets the suspicion its with reluctance and a certain lack of commitment.
Thanks for your clear statements on the censorship issue. I have contemplated the same approach to things and I tend to agree it comes down to commonsense. However I just dont know if I trust some team at google or whatever organisation to use much commonsense. There is enormous possibility of over moderation, and of shutting down discussion and sending it onto the dark web to fester, or non moderated websites, and thus reinforcing tribalism and group think and of further alienating the conservative leaning section of society by shutting down their views. And you have people like Musk who clearly lean towards very free speech.
Our government has actually made racist speech illegal. This all well intended and I loathe racist views, but as a result some of our websites wont allow the public to post comments on articles discussing racial issues, and also issues connected to gender, presumably because they are afraid of transgressing the law by letting a bad comment slip through their moderation, or getting a lot of complaints. This is a serious unintended consequence of censorship. Some racial issues should be discussed and debated, sensitively of course.
So yeah I totally get where you are coming from, but censorship needs a light touch and a lot of commonsense.
Existing long standing laws against inciting criminal activity can be used to shut down the worst of the hate speech. Sometimes we already have the tools, and generally accepted tools but just dont use them well enough.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:09 PM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug, your numbers on renewables are incorrect, I think because you're only looking at installation costs rather than levelized costs.
You can read the 2022 EIA LCOE Report here.
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Eclectic at 10:45 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Nigelj @63 ,
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year ! . . . or should I more wokely say "Happy Holidays" ?
Judging by his earlier comments, "he" is clearly very much opposed to any limitations/restrictions in the public sphere [includes privately-owned media platforms]. In trying to untangle later comments of his, it still seems to me that he is emotionally attached to the idea "Four Legs Good; Censorship Bad". Outright. And, he completely steered away from debating any of my instances of the desirability of censorshipping.
Putting all that aside, I return to the ideas that:
(A) since censorship is essential in a functioning society, the real question is where the (fuzzy?) line is drawn. A difficult matter. IMO, the practical criterion/standard must be common sense. Of which there is not enough in the world. Yet a sort of committee of respectable Google employees is an example of a good start [Musk-free]. Not perfect ~ but like "democracy" it is perhaps the best we can do. ~And disagreements should be devolved to the Lowest Common Denominator level (so to speak).
and (B) there is a strong reason for censorship in the public sphere (and it is reinforced by the range and flash-fire speed of modern electronic communications). It is not that our delicate ears may be offended by statements which are unsuited to genteel Drawing Room conversations. But it is that multiplier effect which I mentioned earlier. The madness of crowds, the amplification of the more evil tendencies in human nature.
~ Whether by open statements, or by dog-whistles : the Overton Window of thoughts & actions can shift rapidly in an evil direction. (Witness recent hate crimes and recent political events.)
In other words, there should not be vastly different censorship thresholds in the various large & small social settings (public or private). Sadly, it is human nature ~ but minimal censorship produces minimal health in society. Mr Alex Jones is just one tip of a nasty & dangerous iceberg.
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nigelj at 10:12 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Bob Loblow @64,
"Shouting "my free speech was censored/suppressed/violated" if a web service refuses to allow it is not my idea of "free speech"."
I agree with you if you mean the website is refusing to allow people to post any comments at all, or refusing to allow abusive, or off topic comments. Websites are as you say privately owned and totally entitled to do that, and it doesnt suppress opinion which is the essence of what matters.
But what about the website refusing to allow comments or opinions that they just dont like, for example climate denialist comments, warmist comments, comments that promote creationism or that criticise evolution, or that express hatred, or are are factually innacurate, (eg the world is flat or covid has only killed 20,000 people globally) ? They are entitled to do that if they want, but to me that is suppressing free speech. Its intruding a long way into what opinions are allowed, and is censorship that goes right against the liberal world view. Although I might make an exception for the covid claim on grounds that blatant lies like that can fool some gullable people and end up killing lots of people.
I'm trying to get some sense of where you think the line in the sand should be drawn on moderation of what people post. I confess I'm having some trouble deciding just how far websites should go with that form of moderation, although I did try to express what I think above thread and it leans towards minimal moderation. Yes its their business if they are privately owned, but to me that is not the point.
"Shouting "my free speech was censored/suppressed/violated" when someone else says something against what you said is also not my idea of "free speech"."
Agree totally. See this all the time, unfortunately. I constantly challenge these people and point out they are confusing things and their claim is illogical.
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Doug Cannon at 09:39 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
https://www.tma.earth/2021/06/18/how-we-calculate-carbon-sequestration-rates/
Moderator Response:[RH] Note there's a policy against link only posts.
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Bob Loblaw at 09:05 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
nigelj @ 63.
...but web sites are not "public spaces". Web sites are more like publications, such as newspapers. Publicly visible for reading, but not necessarily publicly accessible for writing.
Newspapers usually invite Letters to the Editor, but very few are actually published. They may accept unsolicited opinion pieces, but few of those will make it into print. Newspapers with online material may or may not allow comments, and these may or may not be moderated. It's up to them.
"Free speech" means that someone can set up their own web page. It does not mean that any web page needs to allow any material from anyone. "Free speech" does not mean that anyone has to listen to you or pay attention to you.
Shouting "my free speech was censored/suppressed/violated" if a web service refuses to allow it is not my idea of "free speech".
Shouting "my free speech was censored/suppressed/violated" when someone else says something against what you said is also not my idea of "free speech".
Far too often, it seems that the people shouting "my free speech was censored/suppressed/violated" are really wanting to speak unopposed - they want their "free speech", but they don't want others to have the same right (whatever that "right" is). Do as I say, not as I do.
You can argue whether Twitter is a service that must accept all and everything - I raised the issue of a "common carrier" in comment #11. Web services need to be careful with what they allow and support, as they may become legally liable for material they publish. I'm not sure Alex Jones is the "free speech" model we want to follow.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:42 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug @ 363:
If we accept the original premise above,
It's not a premise. It's based on measurements.
the earth is a net absorber of 17 Gigatons annually. The land having 11 Gigatons of net absorption.
So far, so good.
So more land vegetation should provide more net absorption.
In a very general sense, yes, but it depends entirely on what this "new vegetation" is replacing. Are you thinking of planting something on land that has no current vegetation, and no current soil carbon? Exactly where is this "new vegetation" supposed to appear?
The .5% is the proportion (200 million acres) of total land required to absorb the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels.
This is where you lose me. As you stated in comment 356, you determine that 15.64Gt is 3.5% of the total land uptake (450 Gt/yr in figure 1 of the OP). Your total land required still appears to be based on your 77.5 tons/acres value you provided in comment 358.
The entire land ecosystem as it stands is only capable of an additional 11 Gt/yr uptake (over and above the 439 Gt/yr it is releasing). If we created a duplicate land system covering the same area that all our current vegetation covers, it will both absorb and release CO2 just like the existing one. What is it about this new land cover that you are proposing that is different from the current one, that makes you think that we only need a much smaller area than the current vegetation covers?
New vegetation on bare soil does not have carbon uptake rates anywhere near the numbers you seem to think it does. (You have not yet provided the source of your 77.5 tons/acre number in comment 358.)
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Doug Cannon at 08:06 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
refer my 362.
$17/Mwhr, not $1700.
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Doug Cannon at 08:00 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
RE: Rob Honeycutt 360
Here's my reference for known fossil fuel reserves
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left
Estimates on lithium range from 20 years to 200 years. Would be interestedto know if you have some more definitive information.
Re: Rob Honeycutt 359
If we accept the original premise above, the earth is a net absorber of 17 Gigatons annually. The land having 11 Gigatons of net absorption. So more land vegetation should provide more net absorption. The .5% is the proportion (200 million acres) of total land required to absorb the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. I would be interested in a better analysis of this if you have one. That was the original question I presented.
Regarding your staement "it will cost less to transition to renewables than it would be to continue using FF's." That may be true for developing countries who have growing needs for power and no access to natural gas. But you shouldn't misunderstand staements that say renewables are cheaper than FF.
In the U.S. for example there is little need for added electrical power.
It would take little or no up front capital investment to continue with FF. Theoretically to totally replace The terrawatts of U.S. energy with solar and battery backup would require a $1.7trillion investment. That is no doubt not the way to proceed, but it's the cheapest renewable route.
Here's a link to eia 2020 cost of electric utilities.
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capital_cost_AEO2020.pdf
For large wind turbines: base cost $1265/kw plus 35.14/kw each year
For solar PV : base cost $1313/kw plus $15.25/kw each year
For combined cycle gas: base cost $958 plus $12.20/kw each year Plus $1700/Mwhr (my estimate).
It gets complicated when you have to take into account if solar and wind have a capcity factor of 25% and 35%. So as long as we continue to use renewables with fossil backup you can just amortize the cost of renewables over 30 years and compare to FF it replaces when they're operating. If you want to completely eliminate the FF backup you have to multiply the costs of renewables by 3 or 4 and add cost of battery backup.
I don't think we should argue the economics to justify renewables. We need to argue for the benefits.
I
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nigelj at 07:49 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Eclectic @60, I largely agree with you, but my comment was restricted to peppers views on censoring of free speech, and he clearly does accept some limits. So its not black and white for him.
I've expalined my views on free speech in my previous comment, and that limits should be fairly minimal in public doman places like websites. Would be interested in your feedback on that even if you violently disagree. If you have a spare moment. I'm wrestling a bit with the issue because free speech is important, but the internet has turbo charged the spread of misinformation and this is very bad news. Reconciling the two is not looking easy.
Bob Loblaw @61
Yes. Like I said his views are rather opaque!
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Charlie_Brown at 07:45 AM on 27 December 2022From the eMail Bag: the Beer-Lambert Law and CO2 Concentrations
Scruffy @29
Bob’s example illustrates the concept of a diminishing effect of increasing CO2, but as I challenged in @1 and Bob agreed in @2, it is insufficient to fully explain the complexity of the saturation effect. I prefer using the figure that Bob @7 reproduced from SpectralCalc.com for me to explain the saturation effect not as cylinders or cells in series, but as absorption lines (absorptance = 1 – transmittance) in parallel where strong lines reach an absorptance of 1.0 at low CO2 concentrations while weak absorption lines contribute to increasing absorptance with increasing concentration.It is much better to interpret the Beer-Lambert Law by looking down at the atmosphere from space than it is to look up from the surface. The common view of Beer’s Law considers attenuation of the energy emitted from a surface. For example, measure the energy emitted from a source, travels through gas such as CO2, and reaches the end of a cell. The NIST spectrum provides the results for the specified set of conditions using this approach. However, the energy that reaches the end of the cell from the original source does not include re-radiated energy. That is because IR absorbed by CO2 in the cell is re-radiated in all directions, mostly to the cell walls where it is absorbed by the cell walls. The geometry of the measurement cell, unlike the open atmosphere, precludes re-radiated energy.
You say “NO energy will be radiated into space in the CO2 absorption spectra - that atmosphere is completely opaque at those frequencies.” This should be clarified to say that none of the original source energy (photons) from the surface will be radiated into space because it will be absorbed and re-radiated along the path length toward space. However, all molecules above absolute zero vibrate and radiate energy. CO2 at all levels of the atmosphere will radiate energy. At the uppermost atmospheric layer containing sufficient CO2 molecules, energy radiated by CO2 will radiate to space in the CO2 absorption band, precisely because absorption lines have a value great than 0. Kirchhoff’s Law provides that absorptance = emittance (with the caveat of being at thermal equilibrium, which allows for energy transfer between molecules by collision or conduction in addition to radiation.)
Bob’s experiment in the original post demonstrates why it is better to view the effect of Beer’s Law on radiant energy escape to space by looking down from space. The atmosphere in the tropopause at an altitude of about 10-20 km is thin and cold. There is a lot of distance between CO2 molecules. The key is that there is a very long path length available, sufficient to bring many of the absorptance lines in the CO2 band to 1.0. With increasing CO2 concentration, even the absorptance of very weak lines becomes significant.
Your description of the overall global heat balance is incorrect. Increasing CO2 will cause more heat to be absorbed closer to the surface, and this will lower the temperature of the tropopause. This is part of a special and complicated signature of global warming by CO2. It actually reduces emittance to space, aggravating the greenhouse effect rather than offsetting it. The greenhouse effect is driven by the temperature profile of the upper atmosphere. What happens in the troposphere below the tropopause, including convection, conduction evaporation, and condensation, just moves heat around within the troposphere. You mention the effect of water vapor, which also exacerbates global warming as a positive feedback effect. The role of clouds is complicated. High, cold cirrus clouds can increase warming while low, warm, thick clouds can reflect solar energy. All of this is discussed in detail elsewhere, and is beyond the scope of a single rebuttal. But if you have any more specific questions that are stumbling blocks for your understanding, I will try to address them as succinctly as possible.
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nigelj at 07:32 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Clarification to my commet @59. By "public domain" I meant the street and also websites, twitter, facebook and the like as opposed to peoples private homes. I'm just using the popular definition of "public domain" here, as opposed to the technical definition. Obviously websites are privately owned.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:22 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
nigelj:
The problem with reading between the lines in Peppers posts is that you can find bits that show him sort of agreeing with those reasonable controls, but then he posts additional stuff that sounds like it comes from a point of "everything is fair game" viewpoint. Add in a few bits that look like "everyone's opinion is as good as any other, and there is no right answer" and it looks like an apologist's perspective on defending the behaviour you think he (Peppers) agrees is wrong.
There is a tremendous inconsistency in Peppers' stated positions. He uses "free speech", "censorship", "woke movement", "cancel culture", and similar terms in exactly the sort of pejorative dog-whistle style that is toxic for reasonable discussion. I am willing to entertain the possibility that he does not realize he is doing this - but he really needs to sit back and think about his position(s) and how to choose to communicate them.
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Eclectic at 07:20 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Nigelj , please look back through Peppers's earlier comments. Yes, there is a lot of muddled thinking ~ but he is simply not producing an intellectual argument, he is producing an emotional argument. # Absolutes. No gradations. Nuffing Wot Affects Me & Mine. Culture wars. Identity politics. Perfection is impossible, so don't even try for Good. Because Wokism. Because Whatever.
Nigelj, he just hasn't thought it through, and does not wish to.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:11 AM on 27 December 2022Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
Prof Nazar:
Are you trying to claim that there is no experimental evidence that CO2 will absorb IR radiation at certain wavelengths?
Are you trying to claim that the amount of absorption does not vary with CO2 concentration?
If so, then why is it that I can buy commercial off-the-shelf technology that measures CO2 concentrations in air using those principles?
Are you arguing that the absorption of IR radiation by CO2 does not increase the energy level of that CO2 molecule? And thus the average temperature of the air?
If so, you are taking a position that does not respect the conservation of energy.
If you are just saying "I haven't seen anything that convinces me", then you are probably making an Argument from Incredulity.
You are long on assertions, and really, really short on presenting any actual evidence for your assertion.
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Prof. Fred Nazar at 06:44 AM on 27 December 2022Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
There hasn't been a single experiment comparing temperatures of infrared transparent airtight capsules with different CO2 concentrations, including on with current-atmosphere concentration... also, comparing with different infrared filters in the "crystal" and heights, so where's the real falsifiable science? It's all based on assumptions without being able to discriminate confounding variables!
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nigelj at 06:33 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Guys, I agree with you on most things, but you might be misinterpreting what Peppers is saying on free speech. The trouble is his stuff is a bit opaque. Just have a closer read and read between the lines.
I believe hes saying he is strongly in favour of free speech in the public domain but he does accept some limitations / censoring, such as laws against inciting criminal activity, defamation law, and moderation policy forbidding name calling, off topic and spamming. He is pretty obviously saying keep limitations very minimal, and dont censor peoples opinions even if they are crazy or a bit unpleasant. I dont want to have to speak for others like this, but it needs something to stop things going off the rails. Although all individual comments are interesting to me.
I'm inclined to agree Peppers on the free speech issue (but not much else). Free speech seems very fundamental and having too many limitations on free speech is a big problem. Facebook and Twitter have tried to eliminate misinformation and so called hate speech, and they mean well but it needs an army of people and could easily be abused to delete content they simply disagree with. George Orwells novel 1984 sums up the problem perfectly.
Its better to have the nonsense largely out in the public domain where it can be debunked. Maybe with a few exceptions that are life threatening (promoting that "covid is harmless"). I can accept censoring that sort of thing if experts are saying it and so could be taken seriously.
And nobody has to host sub groups like 8chan devoted to obvious and blatant denigration of minority groups that is bordering on inciting violence. A bit of commonsense does come into it.
This websites moderation policy seems pretty good and sophisticated, and its limits on speech are fairly minimal and appropriate. People are also given plenty of warnings.
Quite willing to change my view if anyone can convince me with sensible reasoning.
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Eclectic at 06:19 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug @358 , please show the general outline of your back-of-envelope calculations. There are numerous important factors applicable to your scheme.
For instance ~ and I know you did not mean it that way ~ your 240 years of coal/oil , multiplied by your 0.5% of total land mass . . . comes to 120% of total land area. Interesting !
But seriously, Doug, when you look at Canadian/Siberian tundra, and at semi-deserts (etc) . . . there is almost zero scope for major forest development (being land which is incompatible with high-carbon plants i.e. trees). And afforestation elsewhere, would mean replacement of crops which do ultimately produce human food. Not to mention 8 billion citizens revolting in the streets as you attempt to enforce a vegetarian lifestyle.
Yes, you should buy lithium-mining company shares at present. But battery technology is advancing very rapidly ~ and there is no shortage of sodium, aluminum, etcetera.
## Please show your workings, Doug. Including the effective average number of years for a forest to reach maturation/stasis (regarding carbon uptake).
Doug, your heart is in the right place. But there is an H.L. Mencken quote to the effect of: For every complex problem, there's a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:12 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug Cannon @ 358:
Where do you get your 77 tons per acre number from? Is that tons of carbon, or tons of CO2 equivalent? And since you are using acres, is that an imperial ton, rather than metric?
I am fairly familiar with forest carbon cycles in the boreal forest, and 77 tons per acres is close to 200 metric tonnes per hectare, which is a reasonable number for entire ecosystem carbon in the boreal forest. But this includes tree biomass, root biomass, leaf litter, dead branches, and soil carbon. And soil carbon (in the boreal forest) is often as much or more than the tree biomass. And this ecosystem carbon does not accumulate in a day, or a year, or even a decade - we're talking centuries-old ecosystems.
Please explain your calculations, and give us a rate of carbon uptake per year. Then you can compare it to annual fossil fuel emission rates. Then you can calculate how much area is needed to offset current emissions - and then how much area (and time) is needed to suck out the CO2 we've already added over the past century..
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Bob Loblaw at 05:48 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @ 51: "Online is out in the street."
To begin, this is clearly wrong on several fronts.
- The Internet is not publicly-operated. People pay their ISP to get access, or get it for "free" from commercial establishments that build the cost into the products they sell.
- Most web sites, social media platforms, etc. are not publicly-operated. Each business or private entity that chooses to place information or a discussion forum on-line gets to choose what sort of open discussion they are willing to allow. They may choose to not allow any public commenting at all. They may choose varying moderation policies, such as "all comments will be moderated before being made visible". People may or may not have to register. SkS chooses a system where users must register, comments go live immediately, but are subject to moderation after the fact, as outlined in the Comments Policy.
- No "online" resource is forced to allow anyone to say anything they want, whenever they want. It's closer to "freedom of the press" - a freedom granted to anyone that has the money to own a press. Try walking into your local paper with your manifesto and demanding that they print it for you in tomorrow's paper. Please take a video of them laughing their heads off and post it to Youtube where we can all get a laugh.
Even if "online" was like "out on the street", nobody has the freedom to walk around saying anything they like to anyone they like wherever they like. I"ve previously mentioned libel and slander laws. I will now mention "public nuisance" laws. If your behaviour (even just spoken word) significantly affects the enjoyment of public spaces by others, you will be subject to legal restrictions.
I live in Canada. The relevant statue is in the Criminal Code, Causing disturbance, indecent exhibition, loitering, etc. Quoting in part:
Every one who
- (a) not being in a dwelling-house, causes a disturbance in or near a public place,
- (i) by fighting, screaming, shouting, swearing, singing or using insulting or obscene language,
- (ii) by being drunk, or
- (iii) by impeding or molesting other persons,
- (b) openly exposes or exhibits an indecent exhibition in a public place,
- (c) loiters in a public place and in any way obstructs persons who are in that place, or
- (d) disturbs the peace and quiet of the occupants of a dwelling-house by discharging firearms or by other disorderly conduct in a public place or who, not being an occupant of a dwelling-house comprised in a particular building or structure, disturbs the peace and quiet of the occupants of a dwelling-house comprised in the building or structure by discharging firearms or by other disorderly conduct in any part of a building or structure to which, at the time of such conduct, the occupants of two or more dwelling-houses comprised in the building or structure have access as of right or by invitation, express or implied,
is guilty of an offence punishable on summary conviction.
If Peppers truly believes that "free speech" gives people absolute freedom to speak, how would he react if he and his family went to a public park to have a picnic, and someone came up with a megaphone, started hurling insults and obscene taunts at him and his family, drowning out their attempts to have a nice family conversation, then followed them to the parking area as they tried to leave, followed them home, continued to hurl insults at them from public space in the street. etc?
To try to get back on-topic, the original post is about SkS considering its options with respect to participating in Twitter or not. Elon Musk paid $44B so that he could get to make the rules for his on-line social media site. Elon Musk has made claims about wanting a forum where "free speech" is allowed. What things has Elon done to make this so?
- Banning journalists for questionable reasons, and then imposing conditions for their return.
- Threatening to ban links to other social media sites.
It certainly sounds like Elon wants "free speech" for some, but not "free speech" for all. Well, it's his company, his rules. But Apple is not infringing on Elon's "free speech" rights if they decide they do not want to do business with him.
And it is perfectly reasonable for SkS to question whether they want to be part of Twitter.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:55 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
In addition, you state, "We'll run out of lithium before fossil fuels." I question that assertion.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:53 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Doug @358, 356...
It's my understanding that vegetation is both an absorber and emitter of CO2. So, just increasing vegetation by a small fraction isn't going to do much to change the overall balance. There certain is some sequestation, so it's a good thing to do, but it would take far more than a 0.5% change to offset all human emissions. And, in fact, we are currently operating in the opposite direction with deforestation in important places like the Amazon. So, we'd need to first reverse that, and then reforest from there.
Regarding, "[a] lot of money dependent on renewables and EV's," it's not exactly clear what you mean by this. Wind and solar are now cheaper than all fossil fuel sources, so it's actually cheaper to replace retiring FF energy with clean energy free of carbon emissions. Ostensibly, these means it will cost less to transition to renewables than it would be to continue using FF's.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:42 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @53... "Maybe there isnt as broad a right to speak anymore."
The right to speak hasn't changed. You are still fully in your right to say anything you like, but likewise, people are free to criticize what you say. And if you say something people find offensive or damaging on their property or in their online forums, they are free to have you removed.
The only thing that has changed in recent times is that people using hateful language and conveying gross misinformation believe they should be immune from criticism. And that's just not how it works.
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Doug Cannon at 02:31 AM on 27 December 2022Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Eclectic @357
I find it hard to believe that the earth is at its maximum capability of supporting vegetation and couldn't increase it by 3.5%. Since 1960 we've improved land use to a level equivalent of over 3 Gigatons of CO2 annually.
I had done some estimates. Based on an average absorption of 77.5Tons per acre we would need an additional 200 million more acres. That's a little over .5% of total land mass. Not an easy task but certainly a reasonable target.
Even if we couldn't totally balance existing fossil fuel emissions we could make a pretty good dent. Maybe even enough to forego the need for battery back-up on a scale necessary for electric power generation. Hopefully we could get a capacity factor of close to 60% with a combination of wind and solar and only need 40% of existing fossil for electricity. (Then incentives for non plug-in hybrids could delay the downside of all-electric vehicles, which would otherwise delay the decommissioning of coal fired electricity.....but that's an issue for another day.)
I realize there's lot of money dependent on renewables and EVs which would make any such strategy unpopular with much of the investment and media community. But we're not getting far with the current approach of big meetings every few years to lie about goals with no plans.
Not to worry about running out of fossil fuels. We have over 240 years of known reserves at current useage (coal-139, oil-54, natural gas-49). We'll run out of lithium before fossil fuels.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:10 AM on 27 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @51... "You can't go out in the street and tell them what to say or not. Online is out in the street."
No one is doing that. What seems to be the issue for those complaining of "woke" and "cancel" culture is that people are criticizing your opinions. Thus, what I'm saying is, this isn't about free speech, per se. It's that some people want the "freedom" to say awful things without criticism. And that's not how free speech works.
Free speech is a double edged sword. If you want the freedom to speak how you wish, you have to accept others speaking as they wish in response.
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EddieEvans at 22:37 PM on 26 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Here's a footnote for the problem of unrestrained "communication." Trolling now consumes much time with the outright repeating of the same untruths. Trolls are spamming the Internet, and it makes communicating to learn difficult, time-consuming.
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Vissermc at 21:42 PM on 26 December 2022Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism
This page could use an update. Christy claims all the climate models are overestimating when tested against the data. Paper link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL097420.
YouTube video where he claims models are off by factor of 2: https://youtu.be/qJv1IPNZQao
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Eclectic at 12:41 PM on 26 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
@53 Peppers ~ you are under a severe misapprehension.
There has never been a human society with a broad "right to speak" (in the sense you mean: of unrestricted broad freedom). You are imagining a Golden Age which never actually existed.
Not even in the micro-society of your own household is there an unrestricted freedom to be abusive/ insulting/ threatening/ demeaning, etcetera. Or if your household does indulge in such behavior, then I confidently predict an early demise of the household.
No "broad right" in the time of Socrates or Cyrus, or in any century before or since. Not even in the time of Jefferson or Lincoln, Eisenhower or Bush snr. Every functioning society has restrictions ~ restrictions applied through good laws and/or bad repressive laws, through politeness or customary etiquette, or through plain old common sense and decency.
Peppers, you are out of touch with human reality. Please come down to Earth, and have a major re-think of your opinions.
Twitter and free-speech/censorship are very much the topic of this thread. The Original Post said it well, though narrowly. IMO it is the right decision for Twitterati to stay on Twitter and continue to fight the good fight . . . preferably without investing a debilitating amount of effort. Conceivably, the pendulum will eventually swing in a healthier direction sometime in the future. [Post-Musk!] Mastodon deserves to thrive, but may not be able to achieve the more universal usefulness of Twitter.