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Doug Bostrom at 02:55 AM on 7 June 2022Driving with electricity is much cheaper than with gasoline
"Price subject to change," indeed.
Given "Potemkin Markets" for electricity such as that found in Texas it's not a rule, but for many of us living in states that still acknowledge the reality of natural monopolies it's nice that the cost of driving an EV doesn't change from hour to hour as it does with the more primitive and annoyingly flatulent Victorian-era IC alternatives.
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Aeyles at 21:40 PM on 6 June 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Several of these articles are clearly "political". As a newby, I'm confused how these fit in to the SKS "rules". What am I missing?
Moderator Response:[BL] More moderation complaints snipped. I don't think you are new to this.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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macquigg at 10:38 AM on 6 June 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
A buch more responses. NAS not looking good. neutronbytes.com/2022/05/31/stanfords-questionable-study-on-spent-nuclear-fuel-for-smrs/
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BaerbelW at 05:24 AM on 6 June 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
For anybody interested to know more about Svitlana Krakovska, the head of the Ukranian delegation for the recent IPCC report, please check out this article in Nature which comes in the form of an interview with her. In the article she talks of the terrors of the war in Ukraine and how divesting from fossil fuels will bring humanity onto a safer path towards a sustainable future.
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BaerbelW at 05:21 AM on 6 June 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
Thanks, for your feedback, Robin!
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macquigg at 20:34 PM on 5 June 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
There is a response to the PNAS article from NuScale, one of the reactors featured in the Citizendium series: https://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/news/
I think we might get a similar response from the other companies, but before I bother them, lets see how this one pans out.
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macquigg at 12:23 PM on 5 June 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
Michael Sweet, what specifically is "deliberately false"? On Cs-137, did you read their section on safety? "The most troublesome fission products, including iodine-131, strontium-90 and cesium-137, are chemically bound to the salt."
I will add the paper you cite to the Bibliography page, but to include it in the Discussion page, we need specific challenges to this design, not general speculations about all MSRs.
I started to read the article you cite, and it looks to me very similar to other general complaints that lead to endless arguments on FaceBook forums. I read that there is some problem with neutron leakage, and it makes no sense to me. Do any of these complaints apply tp this design? I will then get a response from the company.
On the question of cost, did you read that section? It looks to me like they have done a thorough analysis. They are saying they can deliver a complete nuclear plant, reactor, turbines, generators, switchgear, everything, for $1200 per kW, lower than the cost of a coal plant. Anyway, it seems like a waste of time to debate cost. If a vendor offers a product you want, at a price you like, don't tell him he is wrong about his own design, place an order.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:45 AM on 5 June 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022
Having read all 3 I would add the following regarding the required paradigm shifts and systemic changes.
A major challenge is ensuring that collective wisdom regarding how to limit harm done and help those needing assistance effectively governs and limits the harm done by 'clever humans figuring out how to benefit from harmul actions and related harmful misunderstanding'.
The popular appeals of the 'freedom to believe and do whatever a person please' and/or the 'perception that certain types of people deserve to be exclusive groups protected from contamination or compromise by Others who aspire to be considered to be equally worthy people' has been harmfully successful at resisting correction of harmful misunderstandings that excuse harmful pursuits of benefit and superiority relative to others.
Edward S. Herman's "Propaganda Model", as presented in the book and documentary "Manufacturing Consent" is a long established and fairly robust understanding of the problem of Free Speech protections for marketing. Legal restrictions have been developed for economic competition marketing (that people like Elon Musk appear to try to find clever loopholes in). But there are very few legal consequences for harmful misleading marketing by political competitors. Clever political misleading marketing to defend and excuse the harmful status quo can be seen to continue to happen with harmful abandon.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:29 AM on 4 June 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022
Another recommended reading that is aligned with the 3 articles highlighted on this week's New Research is the 2021 book "Under the sky we make" by Kimberly Nicholas PhD. It is a book about the harm of the developed "Exploitation Mindset: thinking that some humans should dominate other humans and that humans in general should dominate nature." It presents the need for a paradigm shift to a Regeneration Mindset which would naturally develop sustainable improvements for all of humanity far onto the future.
The book includes a summary chapter called TLDR (Too Long Did't Read) which is recommended for people who don't have time to read a complete book (or fully read articles like the ones highlighted this week - I am midway through the second one but I have read all 3 abstracts).
The TLDR's first point is "It's warming, it's us, we're sure, it's bad, we can fix it." And the 3rd summary point is "We need to clarify our values and shift our mindsets in line with what science tells us is necessary to stop climate and ecological breakdown and preserve humanity."
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:19 AM on 4 June 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022
Doug,
There are indeed bright rays of hope. But, for many people, it will not be extremely easy to learn and adopt helpful habits.
Another way of presenting the challenge of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to others, learning to correct harmful developed perspectives and related biases, is to say that people simply need to set aside their 'learned shortcut gut-instinct predisposition regarding their evaluations of things' so that they can have the open curiosity of an inquisitive child.
Growing up in an environment of competition for impressions of superiority relative to others can develop preferences for harmful misunderstanding that need to be recognised and be deliberately set aside in order to be open to learn what is required to be less harmful and more helpful to others.
A big challenge for many people will be transitioning to the more 'open to diversity' perspective that is required to be an effective member of collaborative diverse group. Shifting away from a more restricted perspective can result in rejection by some members of a group that a person has develop an identity with.
And, regrettably, many people will struggle to 'leave a group they have developed their identify within' even if they learn that there are significant harmful misunderstandings that the group fight against correcting. Some people will compromise better understanding to remain a member of their developed 'group identity'.
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Aeyles at 21:18 PM on 3 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
(DB)
My apologies for my question about handling One Planet's political remark, (MAGA, etc) but could you reinsert my comment to Planet without my comment about "monitor"?
Moderator Response:[BL] The moderators are not here to provide editing services. Moderation of comments that violate the site's policies will progress through warning snips (such as this one), to complete snips, to deletion of comments in their entirety, to eventual rescinding of posting privileges after repeated violations.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Doug Bostrom at 14:22 PM on 3 June 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022
From One Planet's recommendation:
"In one set of trials, the advisors were told about this potential reward at the very start of the experiment, before they started considering the different options. While they were ostensibly picking the best choice for the client, they were much more likely to go with the choice that was favourable to themselves.
In the rest of the trials, however, the advisors were only told of this potential reward after they had been given some time to weigh up the pros and cons of each. This time few chose to let the reward influence their decision; they remained honest to their goal of giving the best advice to the client."
I say this is a bright ray of hope— being better turns out to be extremely easy. We only need to learn and adopt certain habits. :-)
The article also conveniently illustrates— commensurate with our featured trifecta— the kind of benefits we might obtain by better operationalizing hard-earned information on human behaviors.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:31 AM on 3 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Aeyles,
I am aware and understand that the US system is slow to act.
But I am also aware that the slowness to act does not only result in keeping the "... system from going off the rails from passion, bad planning, lust, greed, and downright dangerous, non-deliberative decision making."
Leadership should be leading the pursuit of increased awareness and improved understanding applied to reduce harm done and help those who need assistance. In cases where increased awareness and improved understanding develops outside of leadership pursuits of that objective, leadership, all of its participants, should rapidly learn and catch up to effectively lead the harm reduction - helpful improvements actions.
However, there are undeniably cases in the US (and other nations), especially regarding the matter of climate science, where the "slow to change" system can be seen to delay leadership actions to limit harm done and help those who need assistance.
So the US system is indeed slow to change. But that can be Good or Bad, especially Bad when it is slow to learn. Reading the BBC item I refer to, especially the part about Picking Sides, could be helpful.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:31 AM on 3 June 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022
Doug and Marc,
Thank you for finding and highlighting the 3 items regarding systemic understanding and the need for systemic changes to achieve a more successful limiting of the harm being done to the future of humanity.
I look forward to learning more by reading them, and potentially reading additional items they refer to.
The following BBC Worklife article "How self-deception allows people to lie" presents related understanding of how humans are tempted to think. It is regarding workplace situations. But it relates to the challenge of improving awareness and increasing understanding of the climate change harms of developed ways of living and thinking. It helps understand why it can be difficult to get people to learn to support important changes to what has developed, especially the systemic changes that are fundamental to better success on the climate change front. And the article concludes with a recommendation for the constant work, "systematic reasoning", required for a person to limit the likelihood that they have allowed their thinking to be harmfully deceived into harmful misunderstanding with a related potentially passionate resistance to learning that it is a harmful misunderstanding.
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Aeyles at 02:02 AM on 3 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
One planet
Sorry. I can't engage in any debate that blames an interest group for the troubles you allege. As I understand the SKS policy: "no politics", I can, as a college professor of political science, describe how and why the American system is "set up" to work, while leaving behind all color of competing political philosophies that try to discuss the "ought" to be something that the American system is not...or not yet. I would think your post would have already been struck by the monitor for its conspicuous political positioning.
Moderator Response:[DB] Moderation complaints snipped. You know better.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:04 PM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Aeyles @5 and 6,
Read the BBC article I refer to @3. Then consider if your beliefs about the US are consistent with all of the evidence. That may involve reading books like "A People's History of the United States", or "How to be Antiracist (which starts with understanding than the root of racism is harmful competition for status)"
An explanation of the US that is more consistent with the evidence is that the US system was developed and significantly controlled by harmful misleading wealthy and powerful people. And that system powerfully resists learning that many appearances of higher status are due to harmful unsustainable actions and related popularity of harmful misunderstanding. The actions of US leadership on many issues, including climate change, are not aligned with the opinions of the majority of US citizens.
Admittedly the US today is better than its origin of only land owning males being considered "people" (male landowners were the only voters). All others were to be owned, dominated and exloited. But even today there are some in the US who want to turn back from the present progress and MAGA to be more like those earlier Early Republic times.
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Aeyles at 12:54 PM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Meanwhile, the "govetnment" is planned and run by professional bureaucrats and diverse interest groups...all vying for influence and power and pushing their separate points of view
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Aeyles at 12:44 PM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Perhaps the American system is best defined as a Republic with democratic features. Since "we" vote, and majority votes spawn our representatives and since a Republic is a "representative system" where our elected officials are supposed to seek and secure a "majority view" within the parameters of our Constitution (which is the contract between the governed and the government servants) our system is subject to changes only every few years. We vote for a handful of candidates every two years for some, every four years for some others and every six years for 100 "special representatives" (senators) which keeps our system from going off the rails from passion, bad planning, lust, greed, and downright dangerous, non-deliberative decision making. In effect, slow change prevents an unhinging of the body politic...something James Madison was keenly concerned about in FED 10.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:24 AM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
I also remember in middle school civics class, learning the difference between a direct democracy and a representative democracy.
Direct democracies, where everyone votes on every decision, are very rare for anything other than small groups.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/direct_democracy
Indirect democracies involve electing a smaller number of individuals to act on your behalf:
A policy under the rule of people acting on the behalf of and, to a lesser extent, in the interests of the voting blocks by which they were elected.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/representative_democracy
Note the "...to a lesser extent..." clause. If the elected representatives act mostly in the interests of someone other than the people in their district (e.g., in their own interest, or in the interest of a small group of funders or friends, etc.), then democracy is failing.
Representatives are supposed to represent all their constituents, regardless of whether or not a constituent voted for them. You can't make everyone happy, but you are supposed to at least listen to them and consider their point of view and interests. They are not supposed to be your enemies.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:30 AM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Nigelj,
There is an imoprtant difference between 'An inclusive equitable democracy' and a Republic. Being inclusive and equitable are core aspects of a democracy. Republics can be exclusive and nationalist. And Republics can be very inequitable, especially if they have core beliefs about being God's chosen with a manifest destiny to dominate others.
A Republic can unjustly restrict who gets to become a member and unjustly restrict who gets to vote (like the Republicans in the USA have been doing), while allowing competitors for leadership roles plenty of freedom to be harmfully misleading.
And humans have a nasty tendency to be harmfully misled as is well presented in the recent BBC Worklife article "How self-deception allows people to lie". The BBC article focus is about work situations. But it can easily be seen to apply far beyond "work situations".
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nigelj at 08:10 AM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
For information: “Democracy” vs. “Republic”: Is There A Difference?"
"A democracy is defined as “government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system.” A nation with this form of government is also referred to as a democracy....."
"A republic is defined as “a state in which the supreme power rests in the body of citizens entitled to vote and is exercised by representatives chosen directly or indirectly by them. Sound familiar? It should.You see, many of today’s democracies are also republics, and are even referred to as democratic republics. So, the US and France are considered both democracies and republics—both terms point to the fact that the power of governance rests in the people, and the exercise of that power is done through some sort of electoral representation."https://www.dictionary.com/e/democracy-vs-republic/
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated. (I think you know how, and forgot.)
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michael sweet at 02:08 AM on 2 June 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
macquigg:
The answers to questions about waste in your discussion section on the ThorCon reactor run the gamut from evasive to deliberately false. ThorCon presents no plan to deal with 137Cs and says only that they will process most waste offsite. I expect that you will add the information from the nuclear waste paper cited in comment 6 to your general post on MSR's.
MSR's are uneconomic and the materials to build out a significant number of reactors do not exist.
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michael sweet at 01:59 AM on 2 June 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
A recent paper published in PNAS titled: Nuclear waste from small modular reactors analizes the waste streams from small modular reactors. The short answer is that SMR's produce much more nuclear waste than the large reactors currently running. In adition, much of the waste is in the form of reactive molton salts and liquid sodium. These reactive wastes have no methods of preparing them for long term storage.
Claims by the nuclear industry that SMR's will produce less nuclear waste are simply industry propaganda. I was stunned to learn that no process exists to convert much SMR waste into materials that can be long term stored. The DOE plans to entomb in place the molten salt reactor built in 1969 because they have not been able to develop a method of stabilizing the left over salt mix for long term storage at an offsite location.
This paper is very techical but the basics can be understood by a careful reader.
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Hal Kantrud at 01:06 AM on 2 June 2022Preserving democracy is part of preserving the planet
Someone please tell Eve we are a republic, not a democracy. And also that the California fires were unnaturally severe because of prior fire suppression and lack of herbivory, as noted by Trump with his "poorly managed" conclusion.
Moderator Response:[BL] Your habit of short, unsupported assertions are not constructive.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Doug Bostrom at 04:29 AM on 30 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
"So much of the harmful misunderstanding in 2012 is alive and kicking harder today."
An observation supported by hard data.
We log accesses to our rebuttals coming in via Facebook. We can't tell who is referring to our stuff but we see the usage. It is truly amazing to see what's in play in the public mind; the oldest and most shopworn rubbish is still "debated," judging from resources people on FB are drawing upon.
For the "lifer" doing this crazy work it's all too easy to think of an issue as done-and-dusted, if only from sheer boredom over "rinse, repeat" ad nauseam.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:45 AM on 30 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
"Homo bolidus" was indeed presented by you in your comment on the 2012 SkS post by dana1981 "Lindzen, Happer and Cohen Wall Street Journal Rerun".
Revisiting that item highlights how difficult it is for public opinion to be 'improved to reduce harm done' by attempts to get people to have increased awareness and improved understanding the evidence based fuller story related to harm done on any issue. So much of the harmful misunderstanding in 2012 is alive and kicking harder today.
The legacy dominance of utilitarian beliefs that 'harm done can be dismissed or justified by claims that some people benefit from the harmful unsustainable activity and associated developed harmful misunderstandings' is hard to correct. People motivated by competitive pursuit of higher status can be very reluctant to learn that their current status or desired ways of obtaining more benefit are harmful obtained and unsustainable. Giving up potential for more benefit and making amends for harm done can be contrary to their liking. And they will readily believe and support purveyors of harmful misleading messages. They can even be seen to become more irrationally determined to believe that 'increased awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful and the required corrections' is a political ideology that is harmfully trying to 'cancel their type of people'.
It is tragic that a harmfully misled minority can have so much influence due to 'Defending and demanding Freedom to believe what they want and do as they please'.
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robinp1k2 at 00:56 AM on 30 May 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
Amazing Baerbel! I just loved reading this. I looked at many of the links you provided. Thank you for sharing all this wonderful information and your personal experience.
Robin -
Doug Bostrom at 17:29 PM on 29 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
One Planet, that may have been me writing that here in 2012. The first time I used it the term was original within the confines of my mind and experience— but with 7.753 billion people on the planet I seriously doubt I was the first to think of it. :-)
"Under the Sky We Make" hopefully is a leading indicator. Not caring about what happens after we're personally dead is maximal nihilism.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:50 PM on 29 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
peppers @7,
There is indeed evidence that public perceptions developed due to harmful misleading marketing or a simple lack of concern among richer people are a problem.
The Lincoln MKZ is an interesting case. The luxury sedan had a hybrid model sold at the same price as the non-hybrid model. Yet the hybrid version never exceeded 30% of annual sales.
And there is indeed a pickup popularity problem (that is bigger in Canada and the USA than in other places like Europe).
However, SUVs are not necessarily a serious problem. The serious problem is the over-sized vehicles, particularly the luxury models.
And the fuel efficiency ratings tell the story. My resource for comparing fuel efficiencies is National Resources Canada's "Fuel consumption ratings search tool"
fcr-ccc.nrcan.gc.ca/en
The Lincoln MKZ hybrid model consumption was about 6 litre/100km. The non-hybrid MKZ was about 10 l/100. That significant fuel saving was not enough motivation for the majority of the MKZ buyers.
The comparison of ICE vs Hybrid for general vehicle categories like sedans and SUVs using the Canadian search tool shows the following for 2022 models:
- Subcompacts: No hybrids. Best is Chevy Spark at 7.0 l/100.
- Compacts: Best Hybrid 4.5 l/100. Best ICE 6.2 l/100.
- Midsize: Best Hybrid 4.4. Best ICE 6.4
- Full size: Best Hybrid 4.0. Best ICE 7.1
- Station wagon: Best Hybrid 4.6. Best ICE 7.6
- SUV: Best Hybrid 5.8. Best ICE 7.2
- Minivan: no hybrids. Best ICE 6.6
- Pickups: Best Hybrid 6.3. Best ICE 8.9. Note the F150 hybrid is 9.7. A more important note is that the efficient ICE trucks are diesel which is now understood to produce NOx problems.
So trucks are a problem. And Hybrid SUVs are potentially worse than Hybrid sedans. But the luxury and higher powered sedans are worse than the best SUVs. And the tiny cars are not necessarily better.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:17 AM on 29 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
Doug,
Unlike wilddouglascounty I was not familiar with the origin or meaning of the term 'homo bolidus'. My internet searches came up empty. But I found it by searching within SkS (back to 2012). It is indeed an appropriate term for the majority of the portion of humanity that wins competitons for superiority.
Coincidentally, I have recently read "Under the Sky We Make" by Kimberly Nicholas PhD. The book promotes the need for a systemic change to a Regenerative Mindset, displacing and correcting the harmful developed influence of the Exploitation Mindset. The author says that without that systemic correction "We are the asteroid".
Though the book is not "research" it is based extensively on published research (and refers to SkS and John Cook). But I may be biased because I found the content to be consistent with my developing understanding of the issue.
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BaerbelW at 01:09 AM on 29 May 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
peppers @2
Thanks for your comment! I can't answer your question though as I kept to sessions related to communication and education. You can however search the conference's program to see if there are relevant abstracts.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/egu22/sessionprogramme
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peppers at 20:15 PM on 28 May 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
What a detailed and wonderful recount of your convention. Was there any mentions of the Age of Aluminum ( not the movie )? Co2 almost perfectly follows aluminums climb from 85k tons in 1913 to over 22M a year today. It takes 8 times the energy to produce than iron. The more we identify the reasons the better we can calculate.
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peppers at 11:22 AM on 28 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
I think there may be much more than adding a little reason here or a nudge there to have the public match the concerns. IN 2014 SUV's matched sedan sales and in 2019 they doubled those sales of efficient sedans. Pickup sales almost tripled between 2008 and 2019. The sacrificing is not there. No one is turning in thier stockings to make parachutes for this. This voting with thier wallets covers a larger period of time than mentioned, that spans several political administrations, several rounds of political waverings, and many years of warnings. And it represents a direct cancelling of gains by, say, all new EV sales. This indicates a stronger task than just rephrasing the importance, or some new study indicate.
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Doug Bostrom at 08:04 AM on 28 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
Louis, the solar panel manufacturing situation is quite a bit more complicated than you imply.
Here's a fairly deeply reported story on that:
Which solar panels are made in America? (2022 edition)
Reading all the way to the end, we end up with four manufacturers with all parts created in the US. Many more source polysilicon from overseas, with everything else made in the US. Others are a more mixed bag.
But "no solar panels are made in the US, all of them come from China" is misinformation.
(Not as a slight personally directed to Louis but more as a remark on behavior we all more or less share, it required about 5 minutes to learn what's actually true in this particular situation.)
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Doug Bostrom at 05:57 AM on 28 May 2022EGU2022 - A personal diary from a science enthusiast perspective
Thanks, Baerbel.
Conscious practice of geoethics seems like a way forward to stop thoughtlessly stealing from people living now and in the future.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:37 AM on 28 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
Sorry Joel, that was a bit of an accounting joke. Given that Deloitte grew its first roots in financial accountancy, "in the red" is bad, and "in the black" is good.
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Joel_Huberman at 00:06 AM on 28 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
I found this to be confusing: " Conversely, not acting as Homo bolidus will see us squarely in the black," when the Deloitte report actually says that acting boldly to mitigate global warming will bring us prosperity.
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wilddouglascounty at 23:42 PM on 27 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2022
Thanks, Doug, for resurrecting the Homo bolidus designation for our species. I'd forgotten about that, but given the many recent demonstrations of our (in)ability to use our intelligence to change the trajectory of our collective activities, I'd say that we're definitely destined to be a brief but impactful flash in the evolutionary pan of our planet.
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nigelj at 07:59 AM on 27 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
louislorenziprince
The article wasn't really getting into a discussion about the merits of different power sources. It was more about how human behaviour can be factored into predictive models. However that might include concerns about reliance on China, and human perceptions of nuclear power, which are generally quite negative in America.
Nuclear power is indeed largely self reliant and does have some merits imo, but it is not a panacea. It has various downsides like high capital costs and its slow to design and build and there is public resistance. But this is not the right page to discuss nuclear power.My point is only that it has positives and negatives that would both have to inform any predictive model
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JHBrewer at 05:36 AM on 27 May 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
There are two main "political" arguments against nuclear reactors as an avenue to decarbonization of our electrical power supply:
1) They are too expensive and take too long to build, whereas solar and wind are cheap and quick.
2) They are dangerous because of the possibility of radioactive materials escaping into the environment.
Let's examine these arguments:
A modest wind farm costs about $15M, takes about 2 months to install and generates about 15 MW of power when the wind blows. That's $1/W at best. The installation is quick because wind turbines are being mass-produced in factories already. It would take a lot longer if every wind farm had to be built "from scratch" the way reactors have been in the past. The USA has been adding about 20 GW/year of wind capacity, and now has a net wind capacity of around 150 GW at a net cost of around $150 billion. To reach the total national power requirement (490 GW) should take about 17 years and cost about another $340 billion. We may want to increase the total capacity to account for windless days.
Prototypes of the proposed SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are now under construction. Once factories are built to mass produce them the way wind turbines are, proponents predict, a new 300 MW SMR can be turned out every 4 years (per factory) at a cost of about $1.5 billion each. Thus it would take over a thousand new SMRs at a cost of around $1.7 trillion to take over the capacity now supplied by other means. Worse yet, if there were only one supplier with one factory, it would take 4,000 years. So obviously we'd need 100 such factories to get it done soon enough to help.
Of course, the operating lifetime of a reactor is at least half a century; wind turbines last at most half that long before they need replacing. But my "back of the envelope" estimates tentatively agree with the RE claims. Let's do both, and install appropriate power where needed.
Now, as to the hazards of radiation... please see https://citizendium.org/wiki/Radiation_Hazards
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Evan at 01:53 AM on 27 May 2022Planetary Diets
wilddouglascounty, thanks for the feedback. Unless I get comments, it's difficult to know what does and does not "click" with people. There is a lot of confusion about committed warming, expected warming, and what we can do about it. Trying to clarify the science and the terminology so that it is understandable is a challenge. It therefore helps to have feedback, such as yours, about which analogies effectively accomplish their "mission".
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macquigg at 01:29 AM on 27 May 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
I have been designated as editor for a series of articles on small modular reactors. The focus is to be on the issues of safety, waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. We have the first article ready for review. https://citizendium.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_reconsidered
This top article asks the questions. We have asked companies that are working on new reactor designs to answer these questions in an article that they will own. Critiques and independent analysis will be included on a discussion page for each design.
We have a response from one company, ThorCon Power LLC. The others are still just stub articles. https://citizendium.org/wiki/ThorCon_nuclear_reactor
Comments will be appreciated.
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louislorenziprince at 00:01 AM on 27 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
This article talks about "renewables" but makes no mention of the fact that no solar panels are made in the US, all of them come from China. Should the US be totally dependent on China for panels? Also, no mention of nuclear power, which is the most reliable and self-reliant source of power for the future.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:38 AM on 26 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
Nigelj,
The US polarized politics is like a Sport if one team tried to limit harm done and the other team tried to maximize harm done.
One US team fights any way they can get away with to protect their team's interests from 'restrictions on how harmful they can benefit from being'. They powerfully resist learning to be less harmful.
The other US team also fight against restrictions of harm that their team would benefit from, just not as aggressively as the more passionately harmful team..
That US harmful competitive reality is likely the result of the free-for-all fight for status that is a fundamental aspect of the American experiment in maximizing freedoms. That is an experiment that is harmfully failing but the players won't admit it because that would mean they would have to learn to accept that less freedom is better. They would also have to admit they owe compensation for the harm they have benefited from.
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nigelj at 08:05 AM on 26 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
"Several of these factors tend to act against climate solutions in the United States, with its population heavily politically polarized and government policy not very responsive to public opinion in any event, perhaps due largely to structural status quo biases."
Very true. Its like American politics has turned into a contest between republicans and democrats that exists for its own sake like a sport. Feuds can go on for decades.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:17 AM on 26 May 2022Breaking Through Twitter's Spiral of Silence with the #ClimateDaily Pledge
Aeyles @3,
Anyone making reference to Biblical points could be challenged by the following 'biblical understanding'.
The Bible requires its adherents to be stewards of God's creation, not be harmful unsustainable exploiters of God's creation.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:07 AM on 26 May 2022New study offers a glimmer of hope for climate solutions success
This study reinforces the understanding that without significant socioeconomic and political system changes the future of humanity will suffer the massive harmful consequences of warming impacts exceeding 1.5 C.
Note that the peak warming and when the peak impact is achieved, not the warming impact by 2100 with more warming to follow, is required to determine the potential required adaptations.
And it needs to be pointed out that the producers of the future problem owe the harmed people of the future (and harmed current day people) significant help by developing adaptations that are sustainable in the harmed future they are creating.
An important systemic change is learning that development that results in increased energy consumption, or any other increased per capita consumption beyond the minimum consumption needed to live decently, is not improvement or advancement. Developments that require less consumption, and that reduce harm done by the consumption (ideally no waste), are needed. And socioeconomic-political systems that will reward and ecourage that (and discourage and penalize the opposite) need to be developed strengthened and maintained.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:53 AM on 26 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2022
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets that put all those satellites up there burn kerosene. A recent CBC News item "Time to consider the impact of rocket exhaust on the atmospere" exposes the harm of the cheaper easier way of fossil fuel launching rockets.
Another consideration regarding increased internet use, particularly for HD video, is a high energy demand. The reduction of energy demand, especially by the supposedly more advanced and higher status supposedly superior humans, is an essential part of the changes required to limit the harm done to the future of humanity.
And yet other consideration regarding the addition of sattelites is the way they interfere with planet surface based space observation.
Another concern regarding all the rocket launching is the addition of future space debris and the impact of the parts that fall back to earth.
More newer technology is not necessarily advancement.
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nigelj at 11:49 AM on 25 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2022
Elon Musk also has this "starlink" project to bring internet to rural areas across the entire planet:
www.cnet.com/home/internet/starlink-satellite-internet-explained/
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Aeyles at 01:55 AM on 25 May 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2022
The global trend of moving from rural areas to cities may experience a pause in developed countries. Some power providers serving rural areas have installed fibre grids on existing physical networks. These have enabled rural dwellers to tap the fiber optic infrastructure, making it possible for internet workers to stay put. The presence of fiber on the pole in the yard has also increased the price of residential real estate. Savings from not having to drive to work, both in dollars and energy, are welcome developments.
