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Bob Loblaw at 01:14 AM on 20 August 2022There's no tropospheric hot spot
MA Rodger beat me to it. My quick Google search produced the same two papers that he has linked to and discussed.
The term "upper atmosphere" is vague. In the stratosphere, temperature increases with altitude, and increasing CO2 is expected to cause cooling, not warming. . In the upper troposphere, diurnal temperature range is small, and warming due to CO2 is also small.
The Seidel et al paper that MAR references says that upper troposphere diurnal range is <1K.
The Gristey et al paper indicates that factors such as cloud variations, humidity variations, and convective dynamics are dominant.
And I agree that the selected quote is largely incoherent. As for the author being related to a UK politician - that points to some obvious candidates with long records of obfuscation and poor science.
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MA Rodger at 00:52 AM on 20 August 2022There's no tropospheric hot spot
Cedders @30,
You don't provide a link to the PDF of this pamphlet, assuming it is on-line somewhere. Given the quotes you provide, the pamphlet does appear to be verging on the incoherent, so the actual argument presented may not make a lot of sense and may easily be entirely unfounded.Indeed, I would guess that any talk of a CO2 IR mechanism is nonsense. Certainly I do not see any mention in the literature (eg Gristey et al (2018) 'Insights into the diurnal cycle of global Earth outgoing radiation using a numerical weather prediction model')
Considering the logic of it, the addition of CO2 to the "real atmosphere" does mean there are more photons flying about in the 15 micron waveband, but because there is more CO2, their 'flightpath' is commensurately shorter as there is more absorbing CO2 as well as more emitting CO2. O2 & N2 simply do not emit/absorb any IR themselves but do transfer energy to/from CO2 through collision which is a temperature thing.
The altitude where IR is shooting off to space will have the same volumetric concentration of CO2 and this altitude will rise upward as CO2 is added. Being thinner (less O2 & N2 but same CO2), it would presumably have a lower specific heat capacity, so for the same IR flux it would cool quicker, but being at a higher/colder altitude it would be shooting off less cooling IR. So I don't imagine a simple process worked out on the back of a denialist's fag packet.
And in the literature I haven't heard of any consideration of the diurnal range up in the upper troposphere beyond cloud formation which suggests if there is some effect, it is all rather obscure.And as you say, the surface diurnal temperature range reduces with an increasing greenhouse effect. The diurnal range is much smaller through most of the troposphere (see Seidel et al (2005) 'Diurnal cycle of upper-air temperature estimated from radiosondes') but the same principle (of increased insulation reducing nighttime cooling & thus the diurnal range at altitude) presumably still carries.
So without sight of that PDF, this effect would likely be very small if it does exist, and given the rarified atmosphere up there in the upper troposphere, don't hold your breath. -
JasonChen at 00:47 AM on 20 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
I understand it's a polarizing, politicized issue, and conspiracy theory is a label that's easy to apply and minimizes cognitive dissonance. But that does injustice to the important scientific discipline of hypothesis generation, in which we come up with other potential causes for whatever evidence we observe and hold space for them. Without the commitment to any particular narrative or the paranoia implied by conspiracy theory.
It's demonstrable fact that certain factions within society are eager to see a Great Reset and enthusiastic about the climate agenda and the broadest, most disruptive approaches to emissions reduction. Industrialists like Mr. Musk have already made billions and expect to make many more in the green revolution. Extinction Rebellion and BLM and other Marxist groups are eager to see capitalism torn down, industrialization rolled back, and people suffering enough to support a communist revolution. Politicians like AOC are leveraging climate to propel their careers and justify sweeping political change. For these groups, climate change is not an inconvenient truth at all, it's just the opposite.
To what extent does the IPCC we see today, its output, the choices of which climate research gets funded and which papers get published reflect the influence of such factions rather than pure science? I don't know, but I certainly wouldn't assume the answer is zero.
What might we expect to see if such groups had significant influence, either at the formation of the IPCC or since? An IPCC charter that isn't strictly scientific but reaches into politics, a remit that isn't narrowly focused on some specific goals but one that's broad and vague. We might see IPCC assessment reports that subsume scientific findings and disputes under an advocacy narrative. Rather than push for narrow, achievable climate interventions like "build 1000 nuclear plants," it might instead go broad and endorse every conceivable intervention that might affect emissions, with vague nostrums like "climate justice" sprinkled in to curry political support.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:46 AM on 20 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Nick Palmer @14,
I also got a kick out of the 'science the shit out of it' moment. It fit in the context of the movie and at that moment. Alluding to what he had to do with his excrement was very good.
In this presentation's context I see a connection to the 'hot as hell' consequences of less aggressive corrective actions. But the term seems out of place in the context of a presentation intended to 'appeal to everyone who might be inclined to want to better understand this issue'. Other terms that convey a required 'urgent emergency response' may be better.
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michael sweet at 23:49 PM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2022
David-acct:
Fortunately for renewables, from late morning until early evening every day the sun was shining to cover the electricity need. The sun shines every day!
Jacobson et al 2022 shows that an all renewable system covers all energy, all day, every day and is so much cheaper than fossil fuels that it pays for itself in only 6 years. In addition,, the health benefits from less pollution are immense. Most of the storage is batteries.
Read the literature to get informed. When you raise objections that were answered ten years ago it simply wastes time.
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Cedders at 21:46 PM on 19 August 2022There's no tropospheric hot spot
Hello again. I hope this is a reasonable place to post a potential new myth or misunderstanding related to the upper atmosphere, which I read in a pamphlet by a noted contrarian (brother of a UK politician; a PDF is online and an earlier version found on a Reading University student debating blog). The confusing tract is almost entirely myths already covered on SkS, confusions of carbon stocks and flows, graphs of Antarctic CO₂ lag, faulty logic of causation, a proposal that increases in atmospheric CO₂ are a reaction to the MWP and coming from the oceans, and an incomprehensible suggestion that back radiation doesn't conserve energy. Then it mentions lapse rate and emission layer displacement but that 'this model also says that with more CO₂ the upper atmosphere at a certain level will get warmer ... the hotspot turned out to be a coldspot!'
Now it's not clear how the auithor made that connection; maybe it was the both emission layer displacement and 'hotspot' involve temperature lapse rate. I understand, as explained on the intermediate page here, that the negative lapse rate feedback is due to increased evaporation and latent heat transport from warming oceans, not directly related to CO₂. The pamphlet then ventures three reasons for the alleged inconsistency of model with experiment, never mind that it's actually consistent: these include changes in lapse rate curve (actually the basis of the hotspot), that 'transpiration cooling by plants... increases with CO₂' (the reverse is true, surely?), and then something that I can't verify one way or the other:
In the real atmosphere there are day/night temperature fluctuations (eg in upper atmosphere). They are larger with more CO₂ because CO₂ (infra red absorber / emitter) gains & looses [sic] heat easier than N₂ & O₂ and so enables all the air to adjust quicker.
So translating into my terminology, the idea is that diurnal temperature range at the top of atmosphere increases with CO₂ and contributes to temperature heterogeneity, total outgoing flux and negative Planck feedback. As GHG concentration increases, the effective top of atmosphere rises to less dense air, correct? (Which means daytime air might lose a similar amount of energy initially, but cool faster but then need mixing from lower layers to continue the same radiative flux to space. Or something.) So could it be a valid interpretation? My reponse would be that any such effect is covered in GCM models, but it would be quite difficult to pull it out and quantify it as a separate effect. It seems it might be a small negative feedback on the first-order effect, but is the logic of the speculation sound? Diurnal temperature variation at the surface will decrease with CO₂: will it decrease or increase or stay the same at height? Thanks for any references or insight.
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Jan at 21:44 PM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2022
Its very simple: 100% renewables as fast as we are able to or we die out!
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Nick Palmer at 20:30 PM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
#10 OPOF
Re: "we need to deply the hell out of clean tech and options that are available today"
Actually, I really liked it. I suspect it is a clever reference to Matt Damon's 'The Martian' in which an astronaut is seemingly pemanently stranded on Mars with impossible odds. Probably the most famous lines of the movie - they're even in the trailer - are:
"...in the face of overwhelming odds, I’m left with only one option:
I’m going to have to science the shit out of this"
Click for Youtube clip -
Nick Palmer at 19:58 PM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Re#5
Moderator - Yes, I must have submitted it twice, probably when using the back button and seeing the comment apparently unsubmitted... -
David-acct at 13:04 PM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2022
US Energy generation by source provided by the US Energy Information Administration is one of the best sources to understand the practical limitations of renewables.
A few things to note for the period July 1 2022 through Aug 15th which covered most of the US heat wave of the summer of 2022. Electric generation from wind was at the low point most every day for that 45 day period from late morning until evening with few exceptions.
The nice thing about the interactive chart is that you can select any grid in the US and select any time period, ( see the star wheel in the upper right of the chart which provides the options to change grids and time periods). Using that feature allows the individual to see any time period. That being said, one of the other data to see the the frequency of 2-3 day periods when electric generation from wind is in the doldrums.
So, even though the LCOE is considered to be low for wind, LCOE becomes meaningless with the wind doesnt produce or when it produces more than the grid can handle (
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nigelj at 11:30 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Jason Chen @12
"What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate or even predicting it well. 30 years later, the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed. Fixed hasn't even been defined. The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt. The response strategies it has formulated have a conspicuous overlap with Klaus Schwab's agenda for maximal disruption. Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable. These are just facts."
Your stream of mostly nonsensical, wrong, evidence free, citation free assertions is getting tiresome. I wish you would take your trolling somewhere else. You also have a habit of confusing various things.
For the benefit of sane people:
"What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate"
Fixing the climate is not a physics goal. Physics is about understanding the climate. Mitigation is about fixing the climate.
And The IPCCs stated goals of assessing the relevant scientific information obvious directly imply the requirement to understand the physics.And their stated goal of formulating response strategies is clearly about "fixing the climate".
"or even predicting it well"
IPPC does not predict the climate. It reviews predictions made in various modelling exercises and the predictions have been quite good:
"the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed."
The fact that the climate problem has not been fixed is nothing to do with the IPCC or some undefined nebulous global elite. Neither are tasked with fixing the climate problem. Its because governments have weak policies, corporates have been slow to respond, and individuals have been complacent.
"Fixed hasn't even been defined. "
Fixed has been defined: Net zero by 2050 under the Paris Accord Agreements. You may disagree with the definition, but stop telling people there is no definition.
"The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt."
The IPCC have defined the science very well. Their latest report runs to about 10,000 pages and references many thousands of peer reviewed studies. The science goes back over 100 years. This website discusses this issue if you go through their menu system to find relevant information.
"Klaus Swabs agenda".
Jason you better put on your tin foil hat.
"Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable. These are just facts."
Large chunks of the world are rejecting climate mitigation strategies for a range of reasons. For some its because they don't want to pay any costs, but there are many other reasons including vested interests, holding on to establiashed patterns of a materialistic displays of status, campaigns of climate science denialism and for various psychological reasons. But equally large chunks of people want mitigation strategies implimented, if you read polling studies by Pew Research.
Those are the real facts, with some relevant sources noted..
Moderator Response:[PS] Not a constructive contribution.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:45 AM on 19 August 2022Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
Likeitwarm:
You like asking questions that you think are "gotcha's", don't you?
Tell you what: what you are describing is an infinite series. Put the infinite series into a mathematical form, including a variable that tells you how much H2O increases by for a given temperature increase, and then how much that temperature increase will increase H2O, and see how it behaves?
You will probably find that not all infinite series lead to infinite increases. Some of them have finite limits and asymptotically approach a limiting value (as long as the appropriate mutiplliers fall within certain limits).
When you have your mathematical expression of the problem you are asking about, get back to us.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:27 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Regarding my comment @11,
There is growing understanding that 'being less of a consumer' can reduce impacts more than 'being more attentive to choosing lower impact options'.
'Reduced Consumption' can be really helpful. Energy use, and waste, is associated with almost any consumption. And there can be many other impacts from consumption, including non-climate change impacts of energy use, that are cumulatively more harmful as each person's consumption impacts add up. Tragically, every little bit of harm done adds up.
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JasonChen at 09:24 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
I hereby declare my point of view a seat belt, yours a platypus. Out of my devotion to science, you understand.
Moderator Response:[PS] Not a constructive contribution to the discussion.
This discussion is getting borderline. I would ask all participants to explain rather than rant, and try to find the crux of disagreement.
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Likeitwarm at 09:24 AM on 19 August 2022Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
So if CO2 increases temperature that increases H2O and H20 increases temperature, why doesn't that increase temperature forever or is there a mechanism that cools the climate before that happens?
Moderator Response:[PS]
Please see the myth https://skepticalscience.com/positive-feedback-runaway-warming.htm
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:11 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
On the Demand Side image I would like to see the action of 'reduced non-essential energy consumption'.
People living less than basic decent lives may 'need' to increase their energy consumption to live decently. But people who improve their lives beyond a basic decent life should try to limit their 'excess optional' energy consumption. The 'keeping up with the Jones'es' competition needs to become 'limiting energy use like the Jones'es'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:02 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
A minor point on the Two Fruit Bowls image.
The word 'hell' in the Low bowl description is potentially distracting and not necessary to make the point.
We need to hyper-accelerate the implementation of low hanging actions.
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Doug Bostrom at 08:53 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Ah-hah. Jason really wants us to notice Klaus Schwab.
Here's some background on why (note the parroting*). It helps to explain Jason's "hiding in plain sight" angle.
Jason's mapping the original Great Reset crowd-sourced anxiety onto the IPCC. It doesn't make the jump very well.
We're seeing a kind of platypus being stitched together.
Still not hearing any complaints about what we know about why we should deal w/warming, how this controverts common sense. Instead, hints of descent into old fashioned, dull and boring denial are becoming more visible. All roads lead there when there's no useful argument against "seatbelts are good."
The discussion remains substantially stuck on "my ideology is offended."
*“The Great Reset is not a conspiracy theory. The World Economic Forum website reveals its agenda.”
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:40 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
On the What's the Problem image something like the following wording may help limit misunderstanding.
...accumulating in the atmosphere, meaning the surface has to be warmer to balance emitted energy with incoming energy.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:31 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
On the 3 Nutshell image it may be helpful to mention that the costs of climate change increase significantly as the temperature increases.
A more important point is that ethically it is unacceptable to impose any costs or harm onto others no matter how beneficial it may be for some current day people. But that may be too heavy of a point to try to make.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:20 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
On the Short History image it may be helpful to clarify that the IPCC was established by the UNEP and WMO, and was endorsed by the UN General Assembly, in 1988.
Some conspiracy theory fans speculate about alternative explanations for the formation of the IPCC.
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nigelj at 07:56 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Jason Chen @2
"Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate. Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order."
I completely disagee. It's like you must be looking at another page. The page you linked clearly shows a list of multiple climate change mitigation options and they would obviously resolve the problem, if properly applied. There may be other approaches but that is beside the point.
The page includes another column of information on how this relates to the UN sustainable development goals. So what? These are not a " great reset". I would suggest most countries and political parties would already subscribe to them in principle anyway and clearly many countries are already working towards these with varying levels of success. The following are the UN sustainable development goals:
GOAL 1: No Poverty
GOAL 2: Zero Hunger
GOAL 3: Good Health and Well-being
GOAL 4: Quality Education
GOAL 5: Gender Equality
GOAL 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
GOAL 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
GOAL 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
GOAL 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
GOAL 10: Reduced Inequality
GOAL 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
GOAL 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
GOAL 13: Climate Action
GOAL 14: Life Below Water
GOAL 15: Life on Land
GOAL 16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions
GOAL 17: Partnerships to achieve the Goal -
One Planet Only Forever at 07:56 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
In addition to my suggestion @3 that forests may be a good alternative to Titanics, in keeping with a 'living thing theme' maybe Blue Whales or Elephants could be used.
I am going through the presentation a second time to better understand it and provide additional comments.
On the Communicating Uncertainty image the Confidence image does not show that the confidence level is the combination of the amount/quality of evidence and the degree of agreement between the types of evidence. The presentation of the two as axis of a graph with confidence increasing diagonally up and to the right would be clearer.
Also on that panel the word "Asessing" under Confidence needs another 's'.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:00 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
JasonChen:
You are either playing word games, or not understanding basic writing.
"Assessments" are not taking actions to address a problem. The IPCC reviews available scientific literature and summarizes it.
"Formulating strategies" is not taking actions to address a problem. It is giving advice. In the case of the IPCC, it is using the knowldege of the science it has assessed to indicate what the effect of various actions might be. Then policy makers can use that advice (or ignore it) when they choose to try to address climate change.
You know, don't you? That pesky "Summary for Policy Makers" that accompanies each report?
You are seeing monsters under every bed you see.
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JasonChen at 03:52 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
the IPCC's primary purpose is not addressing anthropogenic climate change.
Of course its purpose is to address climate change. Specifically:
- To make assessments of available scientific information on climate change.
- To make assessments of environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change.
- To formulate response strategies to meet the challenge of climate change.
What's not that list is physics goals of fixing the climate or even predicting it well. 30 years later, the climate is neither fixed nor on a path to be fixed. Fixed hasn't even been defined. The IPCC hasn't identified anything close to a seat belt. The response strategies it has formulated have a conspicuous overlap with Klaus Schwab's agenda for maximal disruption. Large chunks of the world are rejecting them as economically and politically unpalatable. These are just facts.
Are they addressing climate change? Sure they are, in some sense.
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Nick Palmer at 03:06 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
I've now looked at all of it - much easier to read at this link
Re: 'The bath' graphic.
It might be more 'denier proof' if it had proprotionately thick or thin pipes to account for the fact that the inflow/outflow of the natural carbon cycle is much bigger than the human caused one.Re: 'The bad' graphic
I'm always unhappy about how activists say that Big Fossil Fuel is subsidised to the tune of, in your graphic $555 billion, but do not say that this is mostly standard tax breaks for investment employment etc that any business would get. There is an insinuation that these subsidies are 'special' ones just for Big Oil!Re: Two fruit bowls
I think an unfortunate omission in the 'higher hanging fruit' tree is advanced geothermal, which seems to be currently under most people's radar. Scroll down to, or search for, 'enhanced geothermal' or EGS.Without going into the various new developments, this holds out a very credible technology that would, besides being virtually emissions free, be widely available in almost every country on Earth 24/7/365, giving those countries significant energy independence. Planned plant have a very low 'footprint' area, unlike wind or solar... It has the further benefit that it would redeploy much of the work force and machinery of the oil and gas exploration industry to a good end, thus minimising the economic dispruption that would follow the shuttering of that industry.
RE: Demand side management
I love the 'buy less crap' line. Perhaps have a look at Buy me Once - a website that is trying to encourage the world to buy quality that lasts, rather than 'crap' that has to be purchased over and over againModerator Response:[BL} I have deleted what appears to have been a duplicate of this comment. If it contained new information, please outline it as a new comment, not as an attempt to revise an old one. (I am guessing it was an accidental resubmission.)
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:42 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
JasonChen,
I have been following this discussion.
I offer the following alternative perspective regarding the motives of parties acting related to the IPCC.
The first step is establishing the proper historical evidence based understanding of the formation of the IPCC. The history of the formation of the IPCC is no mystery. It was formally established by the UNEP and the WMO and was endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 1988. The motivation for forming the IPCC was the increased awareness and understanding of the harmful unsustainable developments that competition for status, including economic and political competition, created. And the first global conference to make the environment the major issue was the UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockhom in 1972. That triggered many pursuits under the umbrella of pursuit of developing sustainable improvements for the future of humanity (in addition to earlier actions like the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights)
That history is aligned with the research history that Doug Bostrom has focused on.
That independently verifiable evidence based understanding leads to the awareness that there is a nefarious group ... The misleading marketers trying to delay the limitation of harmful pursuits and the related required compensation to people who have been harmed by harmful unsustainable pursuits of benefit and status.
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Doug Bostrom at 01:35 AM on 19 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Here's your claim, Jason:
"Are you doubting the Great Reset includes climate mitigation? Of course not, it explicitly calls for green infrastructure and ESG and all the usual globalist causes. It's not the Modest Reset or the Limited Reset, after all.
Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate. Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order."
Shorter: the IPCC's primary purpose is not addressing anthropogenic climate change. In fact, the opposite. The IPCC's stated mission intentionally obscures its true objectives.
So, you appear to believe that we have a political/economic agenda "The Great Reset" sailing under false colors. "Globalists" (where is party headquarters?) are promoting their hidden agenda by expediently attaching themselves to climate research.
Supposing this conjecture were true and even if "globalists" had actually seized or conjured the IPCC for their hidden agenda, we're still left with the problem of anthropogenic climate change itself. Again, the worth of the message "you should wear seat belts" is independent of whether the advice comes from a communist or a capitalist, because the momentum of a human body moving at speed is independent of political ideology.
Others may perceive it differently, but what I'm hearing from you is some rather desperate straining to avoid fastening your seatbelt. Because the argument for fastening seatbelts is pretty much air tight, you must invent reasons for why doing so is to become putty in the hands of Big Safety. So, the invention to deal with this is that Big Safety is actually pursuing a hidden agenda to control your life and it becomes (apparently, because here we are) a matter of principle to oppose behaving sensiibly.
[And I'm left wondering: if we can't mutually discern the difference between mysticism and physics, between religious thought and scientific research, is there any point in proceeding with this discussion? When we begin hearing comparisons between the Catholic church and the scientific enterprise, that's suggestive of a profound gap in understanding, the need for intensive and broad remediation we won't be able accomplish here.]
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dennisar at 00:32 AM on 19 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Hello John Lang, Wow! These graphics and the graphics in the other work listed above will be incredibly valuable for me in my advocacy work. I am a fortunate Making-Sense-of-Climate-Denial alumni who went on to become a volunteer Climate Reality Project Leader.* I am now working with 1. the Climate Reality Project, 2. the Climate Reality Boston Metro chapter**, 3. HACE (Harvard Alumni for Climate and the Environment)***, and my town's Climate and Sustainability Action Plan Steering Committee. I will continue to investigate your work and share it wherever it seems applicable. I will also contact you to introduce myself and explain whenever I'd like to use your work for specific applications and how you'd like me to cite it. I am excited. I've only begun to think of how I can "speak" with your graphics. Your work is an incredible resource for me, and I argue for everyone who wants to speak with the general public about these issues as you and Katharine Hayhoe so eloquently point out is essential. Thank you. Sláinte, Dennis Richards #ClimateReality * Climate Reality Project ** Climate Reality Boston Metro *** Harvard Alumni for Climate and the Environment -
JasonChen at 23:06 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
The presupposition being that anything you haven't run across in climate journals is "hidden" or "nowhere?" Yeah, I don't know about that.
Was the IPCC's founding a conspiracy? I don't know about that either, but it did have a purpose and a point of view which are revealed in these secret gauzy conjectural conspiracy documents.
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Doug Bostrom at 16:02 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Thank you for answering my question, Jason.
Nowhere do the people and organizations you're traducing describe themselves, their origins, purpose, goals or activities as you claim.
Hence, you're describing a hidden agenda disguised as something else, a concerted organization operating covertly.
Put another way, you're describing a conspiracy, offering a conjecture of conspiracy.
Your portrayal doesn't rise to "conspiracy theory" or even hypothesis. It's too gauzy.
You can improve your conjecture by hard graft, the difficult work of tearing into literature and showing us where public policy that is emerging as a result of scientific research is being misguided. We make this easier; in a given month we offer hundreds of articles in an easy-to-find format. Have at it. Perhaps you'll find an important crack in the wall, but until you do no amount of hand-waving or evidence-free imputation will substitute.
Meanwhile— while we're waiting for that— public policy needs to be made and implemented, and commerce, markets and quite a bit of the rest of the human enterprise.need to adjust in respect of what physics tells us is happening and will happen, what we can see happening (see above, as usual). There's no option to wait while somebody indulges in and explores wild ideas. There's a clock running (see above, as usual).
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Eclectic at 13:50 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Warning, JasonChen ~ you are beginning to wake up.
I strongly advise you to keep behaving "normally" until you learn more about the real situation.
One of us will contact you and offer you a choice. For just $199.95 you can obtain a Red Pill which will open your eyes fully. Alternatively, you may obtain a Gold Pill, which inducts you into the Inner Circle of the globalist elite ~ at the low price of $1499.95 (for this month only).
Payment by Venmo. Offer not transferable.
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JasonChen at 13:34 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Was it decided that we must rearrange parts of our physical economy? The passive voice and the cryptic "we" rob the question of any meaning. "We" don't decide anything. "We" may be perfectly happy to drop hammers, more concerned with our paychecks and careers and reputations and self-images than with most of the 70 billion toes out there.
What appears to have happened in the 1980s is that some faction at the WMO succeeded after a long lobbying effort in getting the UN to charter the IPCC with a half-scientific, half-political mission to assess the AGW science and make recommendations to governments on climate interventions to essentially slow the spread of global warming. Both the fact of AGW and the need for interventions were baked into the mission from the start.
30 years and countless billions later, the bench of researchers has swelled enormously. Careers have grown, new institutions born. The question of the future of the world's energy production has taken sharp political contours, because how could it not? The IPCC sits atop the great pyramid you describe. Everyone with an office in the pyramid agrees with the IPCC and stand united against the mobs of Deniers fuming in the sands outside.
Seems to me we cannot tell from this picture whether that WMO faction was right or wrong back in the 1980s. If they were right and the ranks of researchers since then have vindicated their predictions, we get the pyramid.
On the other hand if they were wrong, institutions take on their own momentum and quickly outpace any individual's ability to shift their course. Political institutions in particular are always concerned about political optics and pathologically unable to admit error. Over the years the power structure naturally evolves to filter for true believers and loyalists and to cast out boat-rockers. The institutions come to be filled with people who support the institutional narrative for the same reason 97% of popes support Catholicism. We would still be looking at a pyramid.
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Doug Bostrom at 12:21 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
"The media distorts and misuses..."
Whoops. We're not talkiing about "the media," popular media. There are fundamental, profound differences between popular media and academic research journals and articles published therein. If this isn't clear and plainly obvious, it's a failure of communications on our part.
Pictures would help, but in the meantime, take a look at a sampling of articles above. Notice that each article sits on a "pyramid" (it would look like a pyramid if all the work was printed and stacked) of other articles, with new claims in aritcles sitting at the tip of the structure and supported by what's below. Notice that as one descends "layers" of papers in this pyramid, the same convention of support from below applies, with the network of support rapidly expanding. There is a huge degree of connection here, and agreement. Understanding this is key to understanding how scientific literature is a most implausible collaborator in any policy enterprise operating evidence-free.
Significantly, the entire structure is available for examination and 20:20 hindsight.
So that we're in understanding, Jason, is it your proposition that first it was decided we must rearrange parts of our physical economy, then that the entire scientific community was enrolled in the plan?
And if not, and if what we know says "we need to make some changes" and this is a matter of broad agreement (we shouldn't drop hammers on our toes), what is the problem you see? I ask because most people wouldn't see a problem with this.
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JasonChen at 12:01 PM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
I'm still not clear whom you're debunking. The initial reference was "a globalist elite promoting CC as part of a Great Reset." It seems pretty easy to identify factions meeting all four criteria. They need not be secret, nor coordinated, and like all of us they will have a gamut of motivations from the practical to the ideological. There need not be any org chart, no overarching organization, no mastermind coordinating the planet to make the Reset Great again.
Specifically, what articles are you expecting to see that you're not? The media distorts and misuses climate research constantly and everywhere. "Sunny day could be linked to climate change." "Experts shocked by latest findings." "It's even worse than we thought!" I wouldn't expect academic journals to publish letters from aggrieved researchers done wrong by the Washington Post. Nor exposés of the narrative advanced in the IPCC reports.
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Doug Bostrom at 10:25 AM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
The "Great Reset" purports that pragmatic reasons are secondary to ideological ambitions, Jason.
This is a fallacy based on inverted predicates.
Physics created a market for safety belts, mitigation against catastrophic injury as a side-effect of a human activity and its unintended outcomes.
Given that we're speaking of human nature including greed and self-interest, it was pretty much inevitable that improvement of vehicle safety would require regulatory oversight, adults in the room (us, acting together through public policy) to heed. Seatbelts required intervention against self-interest, yes— secondary to newly understood information.
But improvement started with physics, passed on to address human nature, reaching an acceptable outcome.
Political philosophy doesn't set physical constants, material properties. In the mid '70s the USSR mandated safety belt use, far earlier than any US state. Does this belated obedience to physics on our part mean we became communists? No— it means that physics doesn't depend on political philosophy. Here in the US as a matter of political belief and practice we're sometimes seemingly confused between freedom to think, speak and worship vs. freedom to die foolishly and needlessly after striking a hard object at speed. But kinetics remains aloof from our thoughts, visible as a serene constant when we don't think carefully.
Science first, mitigation second. Evidence then reply to evidence. It's not complicated. Here physics is telling us about forces much larger than a body passing through a windshield. But it's still physics first, policy reply second.
There is indeed a much larger market for ideas in for stepping over and past anthropogenic global warming. Money will move from one industry to another. That after all is why we're having this 30-years-stale conversation. We're part of the "addressing human nature phase," our waste of time and energy prolonged because stakes are high.
Meanwhile, we can (as indicated above) be pretty sure that if hundreds of thousands of researchers practicing within their own domains are seeing their work distorted or abused in furtherance of a hidden agenda by other investigators, with (let's say) 300,000 researchers victimized and a 1% objection rate we'd be hearing from about 3,000 of them— published in the collection of journals we see above, with great delight and zero chance of going unnoticed and unremarked.
These researchers would be showing exactly how their work was being misused, with arguments built on supporting citations. That isn't going to happen, obviously; nobody's going to or can argue against 9.8m/s/s. While this situation is a bit more complicated than an apple falling from a tree, the problem of warming is only the revealed product of a large unpacking of some basic principles.
As well, it's worth noting (as we can see from the densely dendritic connections between articles and their authors) that contradicting publications by offended workers would in turn would trigger an explosion of replies in various forms, a "prompt criticality" effect, producing the academic equivalent of a saloon brawl with geometrically increasing numbers of pugilists.
Where are these articles? Where's the sound and fury? It's nowhere. We see a few papers attempting to disprove AGW from first principles and failing badly when tested, hence fizzling as a source of research energy. Beyond that, crickets.
Meanwhile, I think in fairness we need to see a coherent org chart of The Great Reset. What's the leadership? How do instructions flow? How is agreement on the agenda decided and agreed? Who pays the bills, and where are the books? China's government is at loggerheads with the US government on many matters, but they privately agree to execute a hidden agenda with nary a slip? What does this look lik as a matter of record? Etc. Short of having all that to see, the great reset sounds like great conjecture unsupported by facts. Coupled with the lack of objections by persons who actually do know better and could explain how, the whole concept seems greatly unlikely.
There's no explanatory or predictive power in "they're perfectly all in it together," because that assumes invisibility, hence unfalsifiability, leaving us with nothing to work with. On the other hand, we have a mountain of well founded consilience.
There's no exciting mystery here, no shadowy forces, nothing really more dramatic than "you shouldn't drop that hammer on your foot," widely agreed. Physicists say the hammer will develop kinetic energy, doctors say this will cause injury at a certain statistical rate, bootmakers sell steel-toed boots to address accidents, and maybe we'll figure out a safer tool than the hammer we're used to holding. Some of us are such that we'll need some help understanding why and how this is all commmon sense— including those who sell hammers for a living. Change forces at play, scale, see AGW, fix.That's all we're talking about. Let's all calm down and not get in a lather about conspiracies.
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JasonChen at 09:04 AM on 18 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2022
Of course so many people could never keep the Great Reset a secret, that's how we know about it. That and all the publicizing from the WEF. The lack of secrecy doesn't prove it's imaginary, it shows it's real. So what are you debunking?
Are you doubting the Great Reset includes climate mitigation? Of course not, it explicitly calls for green infrastructure and ESG and all the usual globalist causes. It's not the Modest Reset or the Limited Reset, after all.
Or are you disputing that the IPCC is pushing the same agenda? Their mitigations report doesn't propose a focused list of completable projects to halt AGW and fix the climate, but just the opposite. It inventories every category of human and economic activity and invites governments to re-engineer all of them, with no expectation of a "done" state ever. It's a roadmap for everything but fixing the climate. Klaus Schwab's agenda, with a different sort order.
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prove we are smart at 05:48 AM on 18 August 2022Geothermal heating and cooling: Renewable energy’s hidden gem
Sorry for that- a good news story that the cynic and doomer in me wanted to trash. Too much global political,pandemic,financial and climate disaster stories read lately!
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:00 AM on 18 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Like Nick I have not yet finished reading the entire presentation. What I have seen so far does look like it should help someone who is interested in being more aware and better understanding things.
I wonder if it would be helpful to use the tonnes of carbon in a square kilometre of mature healthy forest (with the value per square mile in brackets). The complication is clarifying that one number would be for the average amount of carbon contained in the forest and another number would be the annual additional carbon capture and sequestration. A further complication to explain would be the range of values by forest type. But all of that additional explanation in a footnote could be helpful.
I suggest the square kilometer (mile) rather than hectare (acre). I am not convinced that many people in the general population have as good an idea about the size of an acre or hectare.
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Johnlangab at 02:09 AM on 18 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
Hi Nick, John here. I think that's a really good shout. I like the Golden Gate Bridge or Empire State building personally... I will look at their respective weights and have a think!
Many thanks for reading.
John
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Nick Palmer at 00:57 AM on 18 August 2022IPCC Explainer: Mitigation of Climate Change
I haven't been through the whole post yet (I'm otherwise busy) but this section stood out
"After much internal angst and external debate, I chose to illustrate the weight of human-caused CO2 emissions using Titanics rather than, for example, London double-decker buses. Both are too anglicized, so I’m all ears for a more universally relevant suggestion. The Great Pyramid of Giza? "
How about using some US centred icons, as that's where a lot of opposition comes from? Possible icons: Mount Rushmore, Mount st Helens, Statue of Liberty, Empire State building, Golden gate Bridge, Hoover dam etc -
prove we are smart at 12:46 PM on 17 August 2022Geothermal heating and cooling: Renewable energy’s hidden gem
"Doing the right thing in a corporate setting", very unusual words coming from the corporate states of America!
Another positive, fossil fuel reducing fixit. Upon reading this last link given on this repost architecture2030.org/why-the-building-sector/ , that was an eye-openner! The amount of urban growth the globe will need by 2060 is "the equivalent of adding an entire New York City to the world, every month, for 40 years."
That certainly wont help our over-shoot problem and keep quiet about endless growth on a finite planet. Look, these renewable energy solutions are needed and good news, geo-thermal with heat-pumps are great and also proven to be a good solution to fossil fuel types but how long till these innovations are common place?-we are running out of time.
"In 2022, we predict this seasonal cycle to peak at a monthly mean value of 421.5 ± 0.5 ppm in May (Figure 1, Table 2). This will be the first time in the Keeling Curve record that monthly CO2 levels have exceeded 420 ppm, and from comparison with reconstructions of past CO2 levels from isotopes of carbon and boron in marine sediments, this will be the highest atmospheric CO2 concentration for over 2 million years." Taken from www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast
I appreciate these engineers helping to prove a transition away from fossil fuels in a real world improvement for our biosphere. But with some tipping points activated with no turning back, and probably worse to come-it's all too little,too late..
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michael sweet at 05:36 AM on 17 August 2022Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Sekwisniewski:
Thank you for the reference.
The NEA article you reference is a good start on answering the limited resource argument that Abbott 2012 makes. I note that the myriad different designs currently being pushed have different material uses than the single reactor type that they analyze. Your NEA article suggests that with an aggressive build out plan that enough nuclear plants to generate about half of all electricity needed might be built by 2085. source of needed electricity
SInce an aggressive build has not yet started and the paper is from 2011, it will be 2095 before enough nuclear plants to generate half of electrical supply would be built. That is too late. We need a system in place long before 2095. This alone eliminates nuclear.
They find critical shortages of two materials: uranium and cooling water. They find that the amount of uranium in the Earth is too small to supply more than about 30 years of high electricity supply with once through reactors and that after that breeder reactors will be required. I note that small modular reactors require more uranium than the reactors analyzed.
Breeder reactors are much more complicated than once through reactors. Current reactors are already very expensive to run because of their complexity. There are currently no breeder reactors commercially making electricity. The fuel has to be reprocessed for the scheme to work with very large proliferation issues. It is unlikely that a design to start building a commercial breeder reactor will be avaliable in less than 15 years.
We currently see in Europe that during heat waves and/or drought that many reactors on rivers have to be shut down due to lack of cooling water. So much for "always on". That leaves only sea front or a very few major lakes. Most sea front locations are threatened by sea level rise and unsuitable. Inland areas will be very far removed from the source of their electricity. I doubt that it will be possible to find enough suitable locations on sea front land to build out a significant number of nuclear plants. Closed cooling systems dramatically lower reactor efficiency.
Reading your citation with a critical eye makes me wonder who would think that nuclear power might be a significant electrical source in the future. The problems are too gteat. We have not even started to discuss the bombs currently exploding around the largest nuclear plant in Europe. No-one cares if a solar farm is bombed.
Nuclear power is too expensive, takes too long to build and requires too much cooling water and uranium.
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Haiburton42 at 23:37 PM on 16 August 2022Experts: Senate-passed bill will yield myriad climate benefits
Great graphs, I'm going to use these.
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clima4 at 19:23 PM on 16 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27 2022
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03421-z
Moderator Response:[BL] Note that this link leads to the same paper as comment #2.
Also note that you have been told before the link-only comments are discouraged.
In addition, the New Research posts are not intended for people to simply advertise their own papers. This specific post is from July of this year. At the bottom of each New Research post, there is a link to a page that explains which journals are included in the scans. The paper that you mention (Climatic Change Springer) is on that list, so I would expect to see this paper showing up later this week or next as part of the regular scan.
Please be patient, and let the system do its stuff. If you know of a paper that is worth mentioning, and it is in a journal not covered in these weekly posts, then feel free to bring it to our attention. Providing a short summary of why tthe paper is important will help readers decide whether to follow the link or not, and help people find your comment through search engines.
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clima4 at 17:00 PM on 16 August 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27 2022
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation concentration over Iran during 1962–2019
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Evan at 09:31 AM on 16 August 2022Experts: Senate-passed bill will yield myriad climate benefits
michael sweet@3
"The way that I see it is that every solar panel or wind turbine installed means that much less fossil fuels burned. "
By subsiisizing renewable energy we may simply be funding the growth of renewables alongside fossil fuels. I am not an expert on this bill, but my understanding is that there are no provisions for phasing out fossil fuels.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:05 AM on 16 August 2022It's not us
Marcel:
The sequence of initial equilibrium --> CO2 added, equilibrium upset --> system changes to adapt and new equilibrium is reached more or less the way you describe it.
In the Hansen et al 1981 paper examined here, figure 4 shows the modelled response to an instantaneous increase in CO2. The left side shows the immediate response, with the increased downwelling IR and a reduction in the loss to space. That continues in panel b), which is the state after the atmosphere has responded but before land an ocean can increase in temperature. The right panel shows the final new equilibrium after everything has warmed up.
(Clicking on the image source should give you a larger version. I've scaled the display to fit the page.)
We're a long way from reaching that final equilibrium, though, so we're still in panel b, more or less. We won't reach equilibrium until we stop adding CO2 and things can stabilize. If we only had to heat the ocean mixed layer (60-100m deep), then we'd still see heating for a few decades after CO2 stops rising. With deep oceans involved, we're looking at centuries.
The "fingerprint" relates to the current warming, not future equilibrium state.
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Marcel de Berg at 05:35 AM on 16 August 2022It's not us
One fingerprint seems wrong to me
Fingerprint 'Less heat escaping to space'Assuming that the starting point of the energy balance is that the incoming radiation (IN) is equal to the outgoing radiation (OUT) (without taking into account the small part that is recorded as biomass in the lithosphere per year).
If this is not the case and more energy is left behind on Earth every second, the temperature on Earth will continue to rise. This is not the case. More CO2 iterates to a new equilibrium at higher temperature.
When more CO2 enters the atmosphere, an iteration takes place to a new equilibrium of IN = OUT, as follows: more radiation back means a higher surface temperature and therefore more blackbody long IR of the earth's surface, that means in a next step a little more LW IR back to Earth until it iterates to a new balance. The temperature of the earth's surface has then risen to such an extent that it compensates for the delay of the extra CO2.
But seen from space, in the new equilibrium, the amount of radiation coming from the Earth per unit time is again equal to that from the sun, because the increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface has compensated for the delay by more CO2.
If this reasoning is correct, then one of the fingerprints is not correct. If the reasoning is wrong, where is it wrong? You can easily calculate the iteration to a new equilibrium yourself with a simple formula or in an Excel spreadsheet.
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michael sweet at 12:25 PM on 15 August 2022Experts: Senate-passed bill will yield myriad climate benefits
Traker:
I agree that is is a shame that fossil fuel interests are being given so much money.
The way that I see it is that every solar panel or wind turbine installed means that much less fossil fuels burned. The bill provides billions to support more renewable energy. There is only so much energy used. The more renewable energy installed, the closer we are to our goals.
I try to keep my eye on the goal: install as much renewable energy as possible as rapidly as possible. I think this bill advances that goal.
