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Petra Liverani at 14:00 PM on 7 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Just to add, so much argument tends to not recognise that the opposing hypothesis can accommodate it rendering it invalid. When I first got interested in climate change I was simply gobsmacked by arguments such as "The climate's always changed," "CO2 is plant food" ... you know the drill. Who's arguing that the climate hasn't always changed?, who's arguing that CO2 isn't plant food? The kinds of responses one gets when one puts forward an argument never ceases to amaze me.
Moderator Response:[BL] The comment that you say "just to add" to has been deleted.
Your "ten points' is an amateur debating tactic that will not be allowed here.
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Eclectic at 13:21 PM on 7 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Inoculation not easy, though possible. Yes, for the established conspiracy theorist, a conversion to rationality seems not possible. Myself, I am unaware of scientific studies of the natural history of the disease, and of its treatment. Does conspiracism ease off with advancing age? (Schizophrenia for example, does tend to "burn out" in later life.) Please let me know of any prime studies of treatments or of late-stage conspiracism.
In childhood, I had an encyclopedia volume containing many black-and-white photographs taken through the window of one of those old round Bathyspheres (lowered into the inky darkness of the Marianas Trench or similar). All sorts of creatures - usually blind monstrosities - were to be seen. The creatures were unaware of their blindness, of course.
These days, the best I can hope for is to encounter an abyssal creature which chooses to swim into the lights of the SkSphere. (Almost typed abysmal creature, per Freudian slip.) Interesting stuff, I think . . . though Nietzsche warns of the danger of too long a gaze into the abyss.
Nigelj, thanks for linking the Evan Davis book on "Post Truth".
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:36 AM on 7 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Conspiratory thinking is not amenable to reason. The lack of evidence for it is used by the theorist as argument for the skill of the conspirators and the extent of the conspiracy. One can always counter with "it's entirely possible that [insert whatever] is orchestrated by the conspirationists." It can go on like that to infinity.
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nigelj at 08:18 AM on 7 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Regarding conspiracy theories that claim certain historical events are staged or faked. Its obviously incredibly unlikely they are staged, and we can provide compelling evidence they aren't sufficient for sensible people, but it will never be 100% definitive proof something isn't staged. Because theres a remote chance it could be staged in many cases. So this is why conspiracy theories survive. Even if somoeone in the conspiracy blows the whistle on the conspiracy, the conspiracy theorsts will claim that is staged. They rationalise the issues that way.
You have to break the conspiracy into components. Ask is there a realistic motive for staging the alleged conspiracy, are there genuine anomalies that do not have sensible explanations, could the conspiracy be kept secret, what is the hard evidence for the conspiracy. Of course on that basis most conspiracies are shown to be nonsense, and just speculation. But that approach is how you innoculate yourself against conspiracy theories.
There are real conspiracies such as criminal conspiracies and commercial conspiracies like the Libor scandal, but 1) these tend to have only a few partcipants and 2) they get exposed and 3) the motives are obvious and understandable even if they are criminal.
Just my take on it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:27 AM on 7 July 2022Skeptical Science tackles 'discourses of climate delay' and 'solutions denial'
Here is my rough draft of a presentation hoping to inoculate people against being misled regarding energy and material consumption. It is regarding ‘discourses of climate (action) delay’ that argue against the need to reduce energy consumption (a follow-up to my comment @12).
First, read my comment @1 on the 2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26 and read and view the items that it refers to.
When you see or hear the term ‘energy poverty’ be on alert that the messenger is likely trying to mislead you. Using that term is one of many ways that propagandists for extended and increased fossil fuel use, and increased harm done to the future of global humanity, try to trick people into excusing, or desiring to be, less helpful and more harmful humans.
Minimizing the damage done by human activity should be an accepted global objective. Regarding climate change the objective is undeniably to minimize the accumulated peak ghg levels and most rapidly reduce them.
Reducing hedonistic gluttonous over-consumption is an obvious way to achieve the objective of limiting the damage done. That helpful correction does not require new technology to be developed. And it reduces the cost of providing the less harmful technological replacements for the harmfully over-developed systems. It also reduces other unsustainable impacts of over-consumption.
There will likely be some degree of unsustainable impact of any human activity. With this planet potentially being habitable for 100s of millions of years it is important for humans to learn to live in ways that most sustainably fit into the robust diversity of life (constantly pursuing the fittest ways to live is required for humanity to survive). New technological developments may be helpful. But they are likely to be unsustainable developments in spite of their potential popularity and profitability (warning: popular and profitable developments can be very hard to correct).
A major problem that is seldom stated in articles regarding climate change is the over-developed unsustainable consumption of energy and other resources. The problem of over-consumption is especially, but not exclusively, applicable to fossil fuel use. It is important to keep in mind that ending the harm of fossil fuel use is not sustainable if the result continues to be unsustainable over-consumption.
It is undeniable that levels of consumption, especially among the portion of the global population perceived to be ‘higher-status, more advanced’, have developed far beyond what is required to live a decent basic life. Many people have developed powerful desires for hedonistic gluttonous consumption that far exceeds what they ‘need’. And less fortunate people can be tempted to believe that developing towards the ways that those ‘perceived to be superior people’ live is the direction to develop in pursuit of living a better life.
Misleading political marketers abuse the term ‘energy poverty’. They use it to accuse promoters of sustainable development and the associated corrections of what has developed regarding global climate impacts, which includes cutting back on harmful over-consumption, of driving people into ‘energy poverty’. And they abuse the term to try to glorify continued pursuits of benefit from harmful unsustainable activities. Sure, people living less than decent basic lives may need some increased energy consumption. But they should be helped to develop the lowest impact energy consumption required for decent basic living, otherwise the perceptions of improvement will not last.
From that awareness and perspective, the likes of Exxon claiming to be helping improve the lives of people who are “living in energy poverty” is very misleading – definitely a ‘discourse of climate delay’. It masks the reality that those who benefit most from operations like Exxon’s are benefiting from the development of harmful hedonistic energy gluttons who appear to be ‘more advanced – higher status’ people.
Here is the quote from the article containing that claim regarding “living in energy poverty”.
“Woods plays the blame game, which is so common, with every entity these days with respect to climate change. In this game, everyone stands around pointing fingers, blaming some other entity for climate change, absolving themselves as only responding to market forces, and claiming that action can only happen once some other entity takes action first.
Exxon, in this case, was only responding to “consumer demand” and still responds to consumer demand, selling oil because there are buyers for it. Woods foresees continuing to meet that demand and considers Exxon the savior for people around the world who are “living in energy poverty.” But a large majority of currently proven oil reserves must stay in the ground if we want to avoid catastrophe, and that catastrophe will disproportionately affect those people living in poverty. He also blames government for not crafting consistent and efficient regulation, after Exxon has lobbied against action for decades.”
Clearly, the expressed concerns have little to do with helping sustainably improve the lives of people who are living less than decent basic lives. In fact, it could be argued that the propagandist likes of Exxon want more people to ‘enjoy living’ more harmful, less decent, lives of hedonistic gluttonous excess.
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Eclectic at 23:39 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @63 :
It is a tad difficult to discuss things properly with you ~ for some of your comments are rather muddled, and your understanding of "technical" terms (like Occam's Razor) seems to be based on your own special-to-yourself meaning of phrases & words. Humpty Dumpty word meanings . . . rather than the standard English used by scientists & logicians & writers in general.
Standard words are the necessary tools for thinking & communicating. Otherwise . . . you end up like the woodworker who tries to make a chair using only his fingernails as tools.
I could - but won't - reply in greater detail to your ten points. For the Moderator may be itching to use his umpire's whistle, and send all players from the field. And it is possible, Petra, that subconsciously you are being overly repetitious in order to get the umpire to stop play.
Somehow I am reminded of the salutary tale of the guy who played a chess game against a pigeon. A few minutes into the game, the pigeon soiled the chessboard and knocked over all the pieces and then flew off into the sky while proclaiming victory.
The other pigeons were impressed. The human observers weren't.
Moderator Response:[BL] Inflammatory snipped.
Petra's pointless "ten points" are ofiicially off topic - here or in any other thread.
Please leave moderation to the moderators.
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Eclectic at 16:51 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra, you are not being skeptical. You are ignoring all the evidence which is showing that you are wrong, and you are scraping the barrel to find a few crumbs to support some prejudiced beliefs of yours.
Deep down, do you not wonder why you carry on with this behaviour?
A Greek philosopher said :-
"Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom."
How true! And Feynman would certainly agree.
Moderator Response:[BL] Response to deleted comments snipped (warning)
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Petra Liverani at 14:49 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Bob
Actually, to give an example of complicated hypothesis fitting the evidence better all we have to think of is the Theory of Relativity and gravity. What better example could you think of? Gravity works most of the time but the Theory of Relativity works better in certain astronomical cases I believe ... but then I'm vaguely aware of scientists moving away from ToR to other theories. Whatever the situation, certainly simplicity of hypothesis is not what Occam's Razor is about.Moderator Response:[BL] Repeating a wrong understanding does not make it right.
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Petra Liverani at 14:38 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Eclectic @52
In the famous words of Einstein [slightly re-phrased]
. . . "You don't need ten points, one would be enough."
You're perfectly right, Eclectic, you don't need a specific number of points. In many cases one is indeed enough, however, in order to avoid the going round in circles with nitpicking arguments it's easiest if a reasonable number is put forward to make your case from a number of angles.
The thing is if an hypothesis is correct, every single piece of evidence will at least support it if not favour it over any opposing hypotheses so why not put forward a number to make your case foolproof?Moderator Response:[BL] Repetition deleted.
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Petra Liverani at 14:22 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
OK so don't bother with 10 points. I invite people to put forward however many points favouring real pandemic over fake they deem sufficient to make their case.
No one has said anything that refutes any of my 10 points. Eclectic did a very poor job which I didn't really bother arguing with except for the first one but if anyone can come with any refutation of any of my 10 points being perfectly consistent with (if not favouring) the fake hypothesis please do so.
So where it stands now as far as I can tell is that:
-— I've put forward 10 points that at least support, if not favour, the fake pandemic hypothesis
-— No one has made a case in the opposite directionModerator Response:[BL] Repetition deleted.
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Petra Liverani at 14:13 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
To Bob
@39
"[Occam's Razor] has entirely to do with the simplicity of the explanation, not the evidence."I argue against that. It's how closely the hypothesis fits the evidence, how few questions and assumptions are raised. You can have a complicated hypothesis that fits the evidence much better than a simple hypothesis and that's where the simplicity lies, in the "fitting like a glove" aspect, not trying to push a square peg into a round hole.
If you disagree I'm prepared to discuss further.
@41
10 points don't make a gish gallop of themselves - please explain how you think my points comprise a gish gallop.There is no "both sides", Bob, and I'm certainly not arguing for that. I know that not even one real point can be put forward favouring the real pandemic, it cannot be done because of the nature of reality. There might be points that "look like" they favour real but if we are able to look at them more closely we'll find they don't stand up. My invitation is simply a challenge to those who believe that the pandemic is real to show them that they cannot find 10 points (or even just the one) that favour real over fake. How that will affect their thinking though is a completely different matter.
Moderator Response:[BL] Moderation complaints and repetition deleted.
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nigelj at 12:30 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Just another comment on "A book very relevant to the article: Post Truth, by Evan Davis." The reason Im mentioning this is I've read it, and it takes quite a scholarly approach with reference to various psychogical research, is quite insightful, and while a little long in parts, is still reasonably easy to read.
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nigelj at 12:22 PM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Eclectic @52, yes, and one look at covid exploding in Italy early in the pandemic and their hospitals collapsing was pretty much enough to convince me the world had a big problem. I didn't need to over analyse the situation beyond that. And the Italians aren't organised enough or smart enough to fake all that even if they wanted to. Ha ha.
Obviously like with anything I'm on the alert for geninely puzzling and suspicious anamolies, but there just aren't any with Covid or certainly none of huge significance.
However sorry people if I rambled on about about covid. I'm in the at risk group and so covid conspiracy theorists annoy me. I did think I was making valid points, and was reasonably polite , which required a bit of self restraint.
A book very relevant to the article: Post Truth, by Evan Davis.
www.amazon.co.uk/Post-Truth-Have-Reached-Bullshit-About/dp/1408703319
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Eclectic at 10:19 AM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Philippe C @53.
The eggshell seems far thicker than yer average troller.
And a high percentage of earnestness.
Do you not find it interesting to gaze into the abyss ?
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Eclectic at 10:13 AM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Sorry BL . . . cross-posted.
btw, I see the comments now go to 50 before turning a new page.
Thanks for that.
Moderator Response:[BL] The number of comments per page seems to vary, depending on the post (25 or 50). The issue noted a while ago about getting to the correct page on posts with very long comments lists is being looked into.
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Philippe Chantreau at 10:10 AM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
I'd suggest DNFTT on this one. Obviously, rationality is going nowhere with P.L.
Moderator Response:[BL] Expect to see strong moderation in the future. Many of the comments made over the past day or two have now had moderation applied.
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Eclectic at 10:09 AM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigelj @51 :
you are quite right about Petra's ten points.
In the famous words of Einstein [slightly re-phrased]
. . . "You don't need ten points, one would be enough."
That one point is the PCR analysis.
There is your sufficient diagnosis, Petra.
Against that one single point, all the rhetoric and handwaving and Youtubey comments in the world, simply amount to nothing.
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nigelj at 08:49 AM on 6 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @49
"I looked at the USA Today fact-check and nothing in it cannot be accommodated by the fake hypothesis."
So what? It could all also fit a hypothesis that covid was spread by space aliens. A hypothesis is nothing more than a hypothesis. You have no good quality evidence to turn your hypothesis into a proven theory. All you have is a crazy conspiracy theory.
"So Reuters says in response to covid being put down on death certificates inappropriately:"
Maybe it is but there is nothing in this that suggests covid is a hoax. It suggests difficulty recording things appropriately. What we do know is that Covid can be the cause of death, and it can aggrivate some other conditions causing them to progess rapidly causing premature death. You can't see the wood for the trees.
"Mask enforcement not different for other diseases? I'm not sure what diseases you're referring to, I'm talking about surgery and similar medical situations."
Did you not read what I already said? How would you do the same for millions and millions of the general public? Its not practical and the authorities in America would be ideologically reluctant because of the impositions on freedom. This is a typical example where you routinely fail to absorb what people say.
"Regardless of what other possible explanations there are for Portugal and Germany's lack of excess mortality spike against neighbouring countries their lack perfectly fits the hypothesis that it's a result of no aggressive drug trials without contradicting evidence. Of course, I can't say no aggressive drug trials PROVES the lack of excess spike but I can say it offers a perfectly possible explanation in the absence of a better-evidenced one."
The better evidenced opinion is covid mortality rates vary between countries because of varing conditions that I already expalined. That you dont appear to have absorbed. In New Zealand not only was there no excess deaths spike for a large part of the covid period excess deaths went down , due to extensive strict lockdowns that reduced covid, car accidents, drownings etc, etc! You can look it up on NZs covid entry on wikipedia.
"Your arguments against fake are simply offering alternative explanations. You cannot provide any clear evidence that says the pandemic is not fake, that the real pandemic hypothesis is favoured."
I gave you three links full of clear, compelling science based evidence that the pandemic is real and not fake. You just either can't see it or don't want to see it. Some people have psychological issues where they cant admit to themselves they got things wrong, and just move on. Maybe you are one.
"Please give the reference that shows the set of symptoms of covid/variant that distinguishes it from cold, flu and other respiratory illnesses."
The following references discuss how colds flu and covid have many similar symptoms but some differences and severity of specific symptoms can vary a lot between the conditions.
www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/covid-19-cold-flu-and-allergies-differences/art-20503981
intermountainhealthcare.org/blogs/topics/live-well/2020/03/whats-the-difference-between-a-cold-the-flu-and-coronavirus/Its all somewhat immaterial, because we also have tests. The combination of tests, excess deaths, evidence of hospitals under pressure, and at least some symptom differences is powerful, undeniably. Except apparently with you!
"I shall await with interest 10 points that favour real over fake"
Nobody has to provide ten points. This is not a situation where quantity of points proves anything. A few points is quite sufficient. Refer to the links already posted. Your ten points are weak anyway as already explained.
Moderator Response:[BL] If Petra continues to argue along the same lines, posts will likely be deleted in their entirety. Please think twice before responding. Much of what you are responding to has been deleted.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:08 AM on 6 July 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Thanks for the ‘continuing to be’ well-curated collection of news items.
"Exxon CEO says no new gas cars globally by 2040, goes wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing about CO2" was particularly interesting. It contains many examples of ‘discourses of climate (action) delay’. And a particularly annoying one is presented in the following quote about continued fossil fuel production and use:
“Exxon, in this case, was only responding to “consumer demand” and still responds to consumer demand, selling oil because there are buyers for it. Woods foresees continuing to meet that demand and considers Exxon the savior for people around the world who are “living in energy poverty.”
The “energy poverty” term was also recently used by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. See the last part of the following CTV Calgary News video where Kenney accuses politicians who would maintain and increase carbon fees at this time are ‘driving Canadians into energy poverty to forcing them to use less’.
CTV Calgary News video “Albertans to get more inflation belief”.
I am developing a more detailed comment about this for the SkS item “Skeptical Science tackles 'discourses of climate delay' and 'solutions denial'”. The main point of my comment will be that the reality is that many 'higher-status supposedly superior people' have over-developed hedonistic gluttonous desires for energy consumption. Their energy use far exceeds what 'people in poverty' need to develop to live a basic decent life.
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Petra Liverani at 20:54 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigel,
In response to your question about the reasons for excess deaths: so many possible reasons. Hospital systems have been turned upside down so an increase in iatrogenic deaths is not unexpected, the vaccine as I've already mentioned, aggressive drug trials and other changes to medication. Since so many variables have been introduced since the alleged pandemic started we certainly can't just point the finger to an alleged novel virus.Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped
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Petra Liverani at 20:36 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigel,
I looked at the USA Today fact-check and nothing in it cannot be accommodated by the fake hypothesis. Hazmat suits? Yes we've seen lots of those. Body bags, coffins - please. These do not argue against the fake hypothesis, they can all be faked.
So Reuters says in response to covid being put down on death certificates inappropriately:
"However, the ONS says that: “In the majority of cases (46,736 deaths, 92.8%) where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death”.
We have to believe that, Nigel, and I don't. I gave a link to Dr Scott Jensen criticising the guidelines for what doctors should put on death certificates and I personally know people with loved ones where covid was put and they were clearly very sick with other health problems.
Mask enforcement not different for other diseases? I'm not sure what diseases you're referring to, I'm talking about surgery and similar medical situations. My friend who's a nurse told me that in theatres sometimes the nurses do not even change their own masks. Grabbing a mask out of one's contaminated bag, putting it on and taking it off again is nowhere OK in situations designed to guard against infection that I know of. If you can let me know of one I'd be interested. Of course, if it's SARS-1 or such-like then that doesn't necessarily say a lot ... if this pandemic is a hoax it won't be their first BBQ.Regardless of what other possible explanations there are for Portugal and Germany's lack of excess mortality spike against neighbouring countries their lack perfectly fits the hypothesis that it's a result of no aggressive drug trials without contradicting evidence. Of course, I can't say no aggressive drug trials PROVES the lack of excess spike but I can say it offers a perfectly possible explanation in the absence of a better-evidenced one.
Your arguments against fake are simply offering alternative explanations. You cannot provide any clear evidence that says the pandemic is not fake, that the real pandemic hypothesis is favoured. The fact that I can put forward 10 points that perfectly FIT the fake hypothesis even if they don't necessarily favour it is quite something, don't you think?
Please give the reference that shows the set of symptoms of covid/variant that distinguishes it from cold, flu and other respiratory illnesses. And if not all sufferers of the alleged covid or whatever variant exhibit those particular symptoms it's not very convincing is it? We all suffer different symptoms when we get colds and flu. Some lose sense of smell and taste, others don't. Wherever I see covid symptoms, it's always a case of "may" with a reasonably long list that easily fits other illnesses.
I shall await with interest 10 points that favour real over fake. If any of you think that it isn't significant if no one provides those 10 points, I put to you that you do not understand the nature of reality. The nature of reality is that if there were a genuine pandemic it would be no trouble at all to come up with 10 points that favour real over fake.Moderator Response:[BL] An argument that is based on "everything I don't want to believe can be faked" is a classic example of conspiracy thinking and denialism.
There is no need for you to repeat this in this forum.
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nigelj at 18:10 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @46
"As I said in an earlier comment people are very good at offering alternative explanations for points that seem to favour the hypothesis they oppose but what about their 10 points that favour their chosen hypothesis?
A couple of lists of why covid is real and not a hoax:
www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-hoax-idUSKBN25G2KM
www.rd.com/article/covid-19-6-things-that-prove-its-not-a-hoax/
You would need to prove these wrong in detail, and I doubt that you can. So far all I have heard from you is easily rebuted, like Eclectics list did. I'm not going to be debating these latest lists. I'm listing them only for the general interest, and to show people how truly foolish the hoax theories are. I haven't come across anything less like a hoax than covid."But no excess spike in Germany and Portugal also fits my hypothesis OK?"
Portugal also has a reasonably decent health system and apparently managed covid quite well. The highest covid fatality rates tend to be in countries with weak health systems, or who had poor quality lockdowns or low vaccination rates or aging populations, or which have weak hospital systems or very high density living, or politicians who dont take the virus seriously, or combinations of these things. Are you seriously trying to tell us you would expect countries and regions of countries to all have the same mortality rates and excess death statistics?
A very few remaining countries and comparisons like Spain and Portugal might be hard to explain but there will be some reason. Maybe one countries data is incorrect because their data gathering is hopeless. I'm just not that interested, because the overall pattern is so clear and the motivations for covid to be a hoax seem absurd to me, and of course the whole hoax idea has no hard evidence to back it.
"Cold and flu themselves do not have distinctive sets of symptoms so can you please list where we see a set of symptoms for covid or any of its variants that distinguishes it from other respiratory illnesses."
Google the issue. There are plenty of reputable websites that document the symptoms of covid and discuss differences between covid and other diseases. Obviously symptoms are just a guide. Diagnoses of many diseases based purely on symptoms are not 100% conclusive. It needs tests. Are they all hoaxes as well?
"I know there are instructions on how to wear a mask, Nigel, of course, but there's no enforcement and even if there were, the way it's worn for the pandemic is nothing like the way it's worn in every other situation guarding against infection so we'd have to wonder why in every other case for guarding against infection the rules are incredibly stringent but we only have guidelines that are far more lax and don't need to be followed in any case."
You provide no evidence that enforcement of mask wearing is different for covid than other diseasers. Please provide a link. And how would you enforce the correct hygenic use of masks with millions of people? Are you going to have a vast horde of mask police that track millions of people on a daily basis checking on mask use? Have you not considered how impossible this is? Can you see a freedom loving place like America doing this sort of thing? So there are obvious reasons why hygenic mask use isn't enforced very well in places like America like ideology, lax procedures, and its impractical with so many covid cases, and this is far more plausible than some covid hoax.
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Eclectic at 15:06 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @44 :
You may be lucky and get a reply from MA Rodger ~ who knows more about scientific publishing than you & me lumped together and multiplied by twenty.
Published scientific papers (in reputable journals) are where you find real science. Not in personal blogs, newspapers, television reports, etcetera. New ideas & advances can start off a bit "sloppy" but firm up over time with more work done. It can be a bit hit-and-miss in the early stages (never put all your trust in a single paper). Confusion & contradiction rules! . . . at first, anyway. Get used to that, and use caution (and use your own intelligence in a humble way).
Some apparently novel & good papers can later turn out to be poor ~ these get later corrected or retracted or more simply ignored once they are shown to be poor. ( The lattermost is quite common in the medical/biological fields, owing to the vast multiplicity of known/unknown factors that can cause the papers' conclusions to be largely wrong. Which is where the statement applies: "more than 50% of published paper are wrong." Note that this doesn't much apply to the "hard sciences" such as climate physics. )
Petra, you may or may not hear back from MA Rodger. From his earlier comment in this thread, I gained the impression that he thought you were suffering from post-concussion syndrome and should be sent from the playing field.
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Petra Liverani at 14:59 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigel @45
As I said in an earlier comment people are very good at offering alternative explanations for points that seem to favour the hypothesis they oppose but what about their 10 points that favour their chosen hypothesis?
"If germany had a low covid mortaity numbers it might just have something to do with the fact they have the highest number of ICU beds per capita of any country and by a wide margin."
But no excess spike in Germany and Portugal also fits my hypothesis OK? And what about Portugal vs Spain? The lack of excess spike perfectly fits my hypothesis whereas you'd also have to find a reason for Portugal's lack.
Cold and flu themselves do not have distinctive sets of symptoms so can you please list where we see a set of symptoms for covid or any of its variants that distinguishes it from other respiratory illnesses.
I know there are instructions on how to wear a mask, Nigel, of course, but there's no enforcement and even if there were, the way it's worn for the pandemic is nothing like the way it's worn in every other situation guarding against infection so we'd have to wonder why in every other case for guarding against infection the rules are incredibly stringent but we only have guidelines that are far more lax and don't need to be followed in any case.
Have you got 10 points? My 10 points are perfectly fine, they are not "full of holes". I don't say any one point proves anything I just say that each of my 10 points perfectly supports if not favours my hypothesis. Where are your 10 points, Nigel?Moderator Response:[BL] Your challenge to count up "points" is pointless. Any future repetitions of this will be deleted.
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nigelj at 14:16 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @39
I agree with Eclectics concise summation, and so I don't need go through your entire list.
Regarding why neighbouring countries mysteriously have different covid mortality rates or excess death statistics. If germany had a low covid mortaity numbers it might just have something to do with the fact they have the highest number of ICU beds per capita of any country and by a wide margin. But I have no interest in going through detailed country by country comparisons. because there are huge number of factors involved and I would expect to see varying mortality rates. Its not suspicious for me.
Covid has some similarities of symptoms to the flu and the omicron variant has some similar symptoms to the common cold, but there are most certainly striking differences as well and with covid certain symptoms are much more severe. My point is you dont get basic facts right so have little credibility.
Perhaps America hasn't had rules about how many times you should wear a mask. Before jumping to conclusions this means the whole covid thing is a hoax, did you check other countries? In New Zealand the authorities gave us detailed instructions on mask hygene.
"Deaths are accommodated by both hypotheses. It's just that for one they're said to be caused by covid and for the other, other causes and where there's excess spike in mortality we can also see reasons other than a novel virus."
What other reasons are you suggesting for for excess deaths? Remember a large number of countries reported excess deaths over the last two years. Not all did because covid never got a grip in some communities. But the point is how likely is it that there was a whole lot of different factors (the usual things) that all caused much of the world to have an excess deaths in just those two years? Or that there was some mysterious unknown common cause? Both are incrediblly improbable. Covid is a much more likely and simpler explanation.
Your analysis is so full of holes and mistakes you could drive a truck through it.
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Petra Liverani at 14:06 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
MA Rodger @35
You refer to pre-publication peer review, however, when certain people wish to do post-publication review, their reviews are rejected. You're familiar with that complaint, no? Of course, if it's not up to standard then why would they publish? That's always a good response, isn't it? Well, it's not up to standard so we won't publish it. The thing is though journals are effectively funded by vested interests. There's the notorious case of Merck and the NEMJ.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-england-journal-and-its-pr-flacksThe thing is that peer-review is taken to mean something very important about a scientific paper, it's meant to establish its credibility and according to former BMJ editor it doesn't.
Moderator Response:[BL] Unsubstantiated accusations that the entire scientific publishing system is corrupt snipped.
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Eclectic at 13:52 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra, the PCR test is the evidence.
IMO, the PCR technique is a scientific marvel. Useful in crimes; in species identifications; in so many areas. You should learn about it.
Petra, you put forward your 10 points for nitpicking. Don't complain!
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Petra Liverani at 13:35 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Sure you can play Eclectic but you need to play by the rules. Deaths are accommodated by both hypotheses. It's just that for one they're said to be caused by covid and for the other, other causes and where there's excess spike in mortality we can also see reasons other than a novel virus.
Put forward your 10 points and exclude any points that fit both hypotheses. Then we're talking. -
Petra Liverani at 13:32 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Oops! No doubt it's obvious but just for clarity, 'bearing in mind it is important to exclude evidence that doesn't fit both hypotheses, for example, "case" numbers' should read "fits" rather than "doesn't fit"
Also, just to add, you may find it easy to go in and nitpick my 10 points ... but how easy do you find it to come up with the 10 points that favour real pandemic over fake? That's the question you should really ask yourself, not how you can nitpick my 10 points. A favoured type of argument against points seeming to favour the opposing hypothesis is "but that doesn't prove ...", "but that could be ..." The thing is though, you need to have evidence favouring your own hypothesis not just alternative explanations for what's put forward favouring the opposing hypothesis.
What I always do is bear both the hypotheses I believe correct and the one that opposes it in mind ensuring that all the pieces of evidence as much as possible at least support my chosen hypothesis if not favour it.Moderator Response:[BL] As has been pointed out by following comments, an argument based on "I made 10 points, how many points do you have", is pointless. Especially when your ten points are pointless on their own.
You are engaging in a Gish Gallop - a well-known debating tactic used by people with no scientific basis for their position.
Your use of "both sides" is a classic argument style called the "Uncertainty tactic". Your use of selected "experts" also fits into this argument. As well, you are approaching the "false balance" pretense.
You are now scoring 5 out of 5 on the FLICC scale:
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Eclectic at 13:25 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @39 :
I have an idle moment ~ so I get to play !
1. we'd have no clue . . . apart from the deaths.
2. Irrelevant. 3. PCR > clinically
4. Irrelevant. Syphilis, Tuberculosis, etc = often no distinctive set.
5. Shocking to act in haste in a crisis. Shocking.
6. Irrelevant.
7. Irrelevant. There should be no Fire Drills without a real fire.
8. Your false dichotomy on masks. ( And my mask is not black on the inside ~ I have bleached it three times since January. )
9. Confusing & contradictory? Welcome to the real world, Petra.
10. Often with multiple contributing causations of death, the certified "first cause" can be a tad "sloppy". Twas ever thus. But stand back and look at the millions of Excess Mortality deaths. Millions. (The conspiracist only looks at one tree ~ the scientist looks at the forest.)
Cheers, Petra.
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Petra Liverani at 12:25 PM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigel @38
"neighbouring countries don't necessarily show the same kind of spike""Ok, but differerent countries have different covid policies, vaccination rates and quality of data. This is a far simpler explanation than some contrived and massively complicated global conspiracy. Occams razor principle."
It's important to note that with regard to simplicity, Occam's Razor refers to the simplicity of how well the evidence fits the hypothesis, not the simplicity of the hypothesis.If two countries didn't have aggressive drug trials while the neighbouring countries did then to see what other factors played a role we'd have to look carefully at what measures were taken. From what I gather from the information I've seen, Italy, at least, had very aggressive measures in place so at first sight the fact that aggressive measures were in place didn't play a role. Of course, if you can point me to how Germany and Portugal's measures protected them from the spike we see in their neighbouring countries I'm all ears. And I put forward evidence that aggressive drug trials were in place that we could easily expect a mortality increase from.
ALL the evidence must be considered.
-— We see aggressive measures in Italy at least - how were the measures in Portugal and Germany better?
-— We see evidence of aggressive drug trials where overdose levels of HCQ were administered (2400mg where 2000mg can be considered overdose level)
-— No OTHER evidence that might suggest the reason for the difference in spikes."Mountains of evidence."
Mountains of purported evidence. What evidence doesn't fit both hypotheses though? That's the question. The fake pandemic hypothesis includes the purported evidence, it includes "case" numbers, it just says "case" numbers are based on faulty science.
Now that the vaccine has been introduced we have another very important variable with regard to mortality figures. For a start, there is clear evidence that mortality is assigned to the alleged "unvaccinated" who've actually had one dose.
https://rubyraymedia.com/index.php/top-stories/plandemic/magnificent-mercola-shockingly-cdc-now-lists-vaccinated-deaths-as-unvaccinated
Without necessarily putting evidence (but happy to provide where I haven't put it) I put forward 10 points that favour fake pandemic over real. I invite others to put forward 10 points favouring the other way, bearing in mind it is important to exclude evidence that doesn't fit both hypotheses, for example, "case" numbers.
1. Without being told by government and media 24/7 there was a pandemic we'd have no clue.
2. There were 313,000 cases of the flu in 2019 in Australia (far greater in number than alleged cases of covid the following year) and yet no obvious measures were taken and we weren't advised of case numbers on a daily basis or anything of that nature.
3. There is no gold standard test for the alleged covid and the PCR technique is not a diagnostic test which is stated clearly on its packet and also by its inventor, Kary Mullis, and yet "cases" are based purely on the result of the test, they are not clinically diagnosed.
4. The alleged covid doesn't have a distinctive set of symptoms telling it apart from cold, flu, pneumonia, whatever. If testing stopped tomorrow we'd have no clue that anyone had covid as distinct from other respiratory illnesses.
5. The scientific work done to say there was a novel virus causing a new disease and a pandemic was all done at an unscientific haste.
6. A number of things happened before the pandemic that seem rather coincidental, eg, Event 201, in Oct 2019, a pandemic tabletop exercise partnered by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.7. We see clear evidence of people acting as covid patients and hospital drills pushed out as real.
8. There is great debate about the effectiveness of masks in the first place but regardless, dirty masks would surely not be considered effective against infection by anyone. The rules, however, only request compliance to wear a mask with no monitoring of level of hygiene. The rule to wear a mask regardless of hygiene makes no sense and we know that people slip on their masks just for compliance' sake while the inside of their mask may well show blackness - I've heard testimony of this. Even those who wish to maintain the kind of levels of hygiene protecting against infection will simply not succeed because masks against infection are not designed to be worn the way they're worn for this alleged pandemic. What we can infer from this very obviously ineffective measure is that masks are about appearance only, nothing to do with health.
9. In addition to the mask problem, guidelines in general have been confusing and contradictory. Why should we believe any of them are effective?
https://dorseteye.com/the-un-official-coronavirus-guidelines/
10. I have heard from a number of people that covid was put on their loved ones' death certificates when they clearly died from something else. Dr Scott Jensen, also a Minnesota senator, criticises the guidelines for putting covid on death certificates. For this I'll put the evidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qWmiWf81zIModerator Response:[BL] You seem to be as poorly informed about Occam's Razor as you are about other things you say. It has entirely to do with the simplicity of the explanation, not the evidence.
Your use of the terms "purported evidence" and "alleged", your use of scare quotes around "case", your use of "why should we believe?" "I have heard", etc. are all very clear indications that you are simply rejecting any evidence that does not fit your beliefs, while accepting any anecdotal evidence that you think supports your belief.
This bears no resemblance to a scientific approach.
You have previously been shown the following diagram (twice!). We can now add "re-interpreting randomness" to the list of confirmed behaviours on your part.
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nigelj at 09:02 AM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @34
"Sure, now I disbelieve so much from the authorities but only because I've clearly identified so many lies"
It depends how you define authorities. Its fair to say politicians and media have been caught being "economical with the truth" but scientists perhaps less so because their work has to go through a peer review process. So when I try to make sense of big, controversial issues I tend to look carefully at what the published peer reviewed science says on some issue, and particularly what most of that science is saying.
But just because people are dishonest doesn't mean something is a hoax! There are many reasons for dishonesty. I recommend a good book: Post Truth, by Evan Davis.
"Some of the anomalies we see in psychological operations are simply not anomalies that we can glide over. They are very distinctive and we can recognise them as deliberate anomalies not accidental."
Yes obviously there are sometimes anomalies and some things do turn out to be hoaxes or conspiracies but you have to be extremely careful and knowledgeable and not jump to conclusions. I've seen nothing that makes me think covid is a hoax.I do see clear evidence of 'anmmolies' suggesting some countries are downplaying the mortality rate, and reasons for doing this are obvious. This is the real "conspiracy".
"Nigel your explanation for a Chinese research team finding Chinese cobras and many-banded kraits to be "reservoirs" of the virus is "flawed early research" but how is that a better explanation than "nonsense"? It really is nonsense because it makes no sense. "
It is nonsense but my point was it doesn't make covid a hoax. There is simply no logical connection between the two. It just might be the Chinsese trying to cover up the true origins of the virus but I have no proof of that and doubt it would be likely. It was just a case of bad science.
"What says it's (covid) a real pandemic rather than fake? "
Mountains of evidence. Just one example. Careful investigations of records show most countries have much higher than normal numbers of people dying over the last two years. This alone is a red flag suggesting the pandemic is real. To suggest this is all faked records is absurd. Because to suggest millions of health care professionals are in on a hoax, and none of them have gone to the media and said whats really going on, is too illogical to take seriously.
"neighbouring countries don't necessarily show the same kind of spike"
Ok, but differerent countries have different covid policies, vaccination rates and quality of data. This is a far simpler explanation than some contrived and massively complicated global conspiracy. Occams razor principle.
This will probably be my last comment because covid is not the real issue and you have already been given infomation on the characteristics of conspiracy theories.
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Philippe Chantreau at 02:40 AM on 5 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
This I find especially amusing: "knowing nothing on the subject, I found it compelling."
I don't know that anything else can be added. It sums up the attitude of a large body of people with opinions. I think that Petra has said everything there was to say for everyone else to form their opinion on hers, and the subject is now thoroughly exhausted. I have to say it takes some serious acting to produce a p/F ratio less than 80 on an arterial blood gas but it may not be compelling enough for someone who doesn't know Jack on the subject.
What a pathetic joke.
Moderator Response:[BL] The valid point on having strong opinions on subjects that the writer knows nothing about does not need the snipped closing comment.
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Eclectic at 23:28 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Moderator, indulge me in yet one more post in this thread, please.
Petra Liverani @33 ,
Thanks, I have now had the chance to see your [linked] videos about the Crisis Actors faking covid in hospital beds. Brilliant.
Yes, I am convinced.
World governments are in a conspiracy to con us, obviously. No other explanation is possible.
Gotta say, that the UK authorities are doing a rather cheap job there. Versus the USA federal government (and 50 state governments) who've been splashing out a real bucketload of money on the job. For the USA, over 1 million "covid" deaths so far [deaths certified, tested, cross-referenced against Excess Mortality minus influenza ].
One million, actually dead.
Now that is what I call Method Acting !
But how much would the Authorities have had to pay these million actors to undergo actual real death ~ the mind boggles. And pay to bribe the dead actors' relatives, friends & neighbours?
Gotta be $squillions !
Petra, it's horrifying . . . and yet I half-admire the Authorities' dastardly cruel thoroughness. The Freudian attraction of pure evil?
Please sign me up to your organization.
Moderator Response:[BL] Although the comments policy does not have explicit statements banning sarcasm, this does get a bit too close to ad hominem and inflammatory commenting.
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MA Rodger at 23:27 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
I am not sure that this lenghty to-&-fro on the exemplar of COVID-19 is very useful for man or beast. Perhaps a roll-back to the initial intorduction of the subject into this thread would cut the subject off at its in-thread intorduction.
Petra Liverani @4,
You raise Feynman's 'Cargo Cult Science' and the criticisms of Richard Smith to pre-publication peer review and ask "If eminent scientists criticise "science" why shouldn't we?"
If you bother to read the criticism of science by these two 'eminent scientists', you may find that their criticism is not in any way as broadly based as you appear to have been arguing down this thread.
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Eclectic at 22:18 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @32 ,
When I googled your question (which you are free to do, of course) the first hit that came up was an analysis [B.Healy et al., 2021] of PCR testing of about 5,100 tests. The result boiled down to around 0.5% false positive ~ a good result in a low-prevalence situation. (The patient may be retested if it was only a single gene positive.)
So, not really a problem. Your question seems off-topic though, considering that this thread is discussing inoculation against misinformation. I also feel that "self-inoculation" (against misinformation) includes you/we gaining an understanding of the psychological presentation of those who promote misinformation ~ is the anti-science person showing signs of being a nutter or political extremist or conspiracy theorist, etcetera?
Psychological abnormalities can be hard to tell, sometimes. (BTW, you have not answered my question @30 about your assessment regarding Dr Bailey . . . but as the Moderator hints, I shall withdraw such a personal reference.)
Extremists and conspiracists are fairly easy to spot, much of the time. They waddle and quack [excuse pun]. But the nutters can prove less easy. I myself know a research scientist (PhD level) who is a member of a local Flat Earth Society ~ an intelligent, friendly, charming fellow, whom you would have no suspicion of . . . unless the subject of the Earth's shape cropped up. ( I haven't dared ask him about alien abductions and so on.)
But examining the mindset of, ahem . . . a contrarian . . . is something which you should be doing routinely, Petra. It can save you wasting time going down the proverbial rabbit-holes. It's a form of self-inoculation, in a way !
Moderator Response:[BL] There is a blog post here at SkS where Covid-specific discussion is probably more on-topic.
https://skepticalscience.com/COVID-19-Vaccine-Communication-Handbook.html
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Petra Liverani at 21:50 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
@Nigel 31
"You don't have to be a scientist to see certain (covid related) anomalies.""But are they really anomalies?"
The moon landings is a very interesting case because it's the one where I fall out with my sometimes tribe in our disbelief of many things told to us by the authorities and it's one where you can really see people's inclinations to believe blind them to the evidence - just as we see other people's inclinations blind them to the evidence when they're inclination is to believe the authorities.
After I'd woken up to a couple of big lies I thought I'd take a look at the moon landings which I was all set to disbelieve too. I read the book, Wagging the Moondoggie (love the title if not the content), which said they didn't happen and, knowing nothing on the subject at that point, I found it compelling, however, I thought I should check the evidence myself and when I got to the audio between the astronauts and mission control I stopped dead in my tracks. "No way could this be faked," I thought. But, of course, that's just my opinion, isn't it, just like the opinion of those who think it could be faked. The fact is though that no one has identified any fakery in the audio and there's hours and hours of it. Law of Parsimony/Occam's Razor right?
And, of course, everything we see apart from a few seeming anomalies completely aligns with the lunar conditions so very different from the terrestrial.While I may misinterpret or simply miss important evidence sometimes I'm definitely an evidence-based thinker, not an inclination-based thinker simply because I don't have strong inclinations. Sure, now I disbelieve so much from the authorities but only because I've clearly identified so many lies - and this all happened after the pretty advanced age of 53, 8 years ago. I don't WANT to disbelieve them though and I don't disbelieve them on the moon landings and man-made climate change - just most other things. And while I said I didn't believe in covid from Day One that doesn't mean I wouldn't change my mind - it's just no evidence came to light to make me change my mind.
Some of the anomalies we see in psychological operations are simply not anomalies that we can glide over. They are very distinctive and we can recognise them as deliberate anomalies not accidental. The most important quote about propaganda in my opinion is from British psychiatrist Anthony Daniels which he applies to both communist propaganda and political correctness but we can see it applies to all propaganda from power.The purpose of propaganda is not to persuade or convince, not to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponds to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is in some small way to become evil oneself. One's standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control.
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/124952-political-correctness-is-communist-propaganda-writ-small-in-my-studyThe thing most people seem to have a problem coming to terms with is that those in power tell us the truth underneath the propaganda - they rub it in our faces and make fools of us. When I learnt of this phenomenon known as "revelation of the method" and "hidden-in-plain-sight" I didn't doubt it for a nanosecond because quite a number of giveaway clues had puzzled me. It seems so counterintuitive but it isn't when you know how power works and what could testify to power better than telling us what they're doing and still getting away with it.
Nigel your explanation for a Chinese research team finding Chinese cobras and many-banded kraits to be "reservoirs" of the virus is "flawed early research" but how is that a better explanation than "nonsense"? It really is nonsense because it makes no sense. Why would researchers look in those two species of snakes in the first place (and the pandemic is barely news at this point) but not others? And if they did look at others did they not find those species to be reservoirs only the two mentioned and if this was the case why not mention it? It doesn't make sense. Have we seen any people falling flat on their faces since Wuhan or people laid out on hospital floors or on the ground? No we have not. These are not the only nonsenses, there are plenty more such as actors playing covid patients.NHS hiring actors to play covid patients
Henry Dyne, Award-winning crisis actor
A crisis actor speaks and shows her contract
What clearly says that the covid pandemic is not a complete fabrication and that everyone labelled sick or dead from covid isn't simply sick or died from something else such as cold, flu, pneumonia, etc? What says it's a real pandemic rather than fake? What's the evidence that clearly distinguishes it as real? What says that a bogus test hasn't been used to make "cases" for an illness that doesn't exist in its own right? Covid has been going for 2.5 years and of the people I've known who've tested positive, some were sick with what could easily be a cold, my neighbour said he felt close to death but recovered in a few days, and someone else had no symptoms. What says my neighbour didn't have a bad flu and the others just had a cold or nothing at all? If government and media didn't tell you 24/7 there was a pandemic would you have a clue there was one? If everyone wasn't made to wear masks, etc would you know there was a pandemic? No, you wouldn't have a clue. How can there be a pandemic that you can only know of through government and media?
We can look at an overall excess spike in mortality in Europe in April 2020 that seems to favour the alleged covid pandemic however when we look at the individual countries and notice how neighbouring countries don't necessarily show the same kind of spike we might wonder about that. Could the fact the spike doesn't cross borders be explained by aggressive drug trials rather than a covid pandemic? Something to very seriously ponder on.
Set the right marker to about Week 25 2020 to see how in the preceding weeks there's a big spike in Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy but not in Portugal and Germany where no aggressive drug trials were conducted.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country
Oxford, Recovery et Solidarity : Overdosage in two clinical trials with acts considered criminal?Moderator Response:[BL] You have already been pointed to the following graphic.
Since you seem unwilling to evaluate your posts here on this scale, I will do so. I see:
- Overriding suspicion
- Nefariuus intent
- Something must be wrong
- Immune to evidence
and maybe more. The phrase "no evidence ... to change my mind" is a common statement from those that have fallen prey to misinformation.
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Petra Liverani at 19:27 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
OK, I'll ask a simple question.
What's the rate of false positives for the PCR test and how is that rate arrived at? -
Eclectic at 13:47 PM on 4 July 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022
Doug ~ IIRC the final scene of "Canticle" was the priest/monk symbolically shaking the dust from his sandals as he entered the Ark-rocket. As the initial SCOTUS decisions exploded on the horizon . . . or perhaps I am slightly mis-remembering that bit ;-)
Interesting times unfolding now : and we mustn't sleep at the wheel.
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nigelj at 12:36 PM on 4 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @27
"You don't have to be a scientist to see certain (covid related) anomalies."
But are they really anomalies? I'm not convinced as mentioned in my previous comment up thread. For example you mentioned a person with covid falling over that you felt looked suspicious.Thats rather subjective on your part and perhaps it just looked staged. its important to know covid can make you very dizzy and weak. Its quite likely a few people would fall over. Its also possible that the hospital didnt catch specific cases on the security cameria video,so staged one as a reconstruction and did a sloppy job. Clearly that would not mean covid is a hoax.
And heres an analogy. Do you remember the claims that the NASA moon landing was a hoax and all staged with actors? This was based on what appeared to be anomolies in certain photos of the moon landings. Some of the anomalies did puzzle me, but I could see innocent explanations for several of them becauuse photography used to be a bit of a hobby of mine. NASA also released commentary explaining what caused the alleged anomalies, and there were good and utterly innocent and convincing technical explanations.
But NASAS explanations dont appear to be enough for some people, who go on believing its a hoax / conspiracy. Perhaps there are various possible reasons. Some of these people dont seem very intelligent (Im not suggesting you fall into that category), and its known that some people lean towards conspiracy thinking for innate psychological reasons (easily googled) , and others are probably just throwing mud at NASA because they hate elites or governmnet organisations for ideological reasons. Believing in hoaxes is also a type of security blanket that allows people to blame elites for the problems of the world rather than themselves. And there is also dunning kruger syndrome. My point is there are obvious explanations why some people see anamolies and hoaxes everywhere and think they know better than experts.
So sure we should all question the conventional wisdom, or new wisdon and look out for anomolies, but most anomalies turn out to have innocent explanations that are pretty much irrefutable, so its important to not get stuck in a groove convinced something must be a hoax.
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Petra Liverani at @28
"Sam Bailey says the experiments done to show the existence of viruses don't follow the scientific method "
Someone says something. Doesn't make them correct. Regardless of the methods used we can identify viruses which really should leave no room for doubt about their existance.
"Electron microscopy (EM) has long been used in the discovery and description of viruses. "
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2772359/
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Petra Liverani @29
"Dr Sam Bailey has been sacked from her presenter job with NZ TV's, The Checkup, for refusing the jab, struck off the medical register and had her YouTube videos pulled down....I'm really not sure where you're not seeing censorship here."Like the moderator said losing a job over health and safety issues is not censorship. I live in New Zealand and she was in breach of her employment conditions. The governmnet had also made it mandatory for some people to be vaccinated although I cant recall exactly all the groups, but I do recall some were sacked from their jobs. Its just not censorship, although clearly you could argue about the policy itself.
"No argument against what the authorities tell us about the pandemic is allowed in the media."
Plenty of our media in New Zealand do allow such arguments. Stuff.co allow robust criticism of what the authorities claim, but dont allow wild claims that vaccines dont work, because they dont want to be seen to discourage vaccination and put our hospitals into a crisis situation. Call that censorship, but I think its an example of good practical censorship. Like not allowing people to falsely cry "fire" in a movie theatre.
"It's right there in the absence of any dissidence. All things dissident are simply labelled misinformation and ridiculed."
That is a wild generalisation. Instead some specific things get labelled misinformation. You have to then convince people they are not misinformation. You might need better logic and evidence than you have come up with so far.
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Doug Bostrom at 10:03 AM on 4 July 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022
Eclectic, indeed it's true.
Even more, there are about a billion arguably useful (for life-support purposes) years left in our main sequence star. A number of cycles of spectacular folly are left available, though none will likely be so grand as ours given the virgin, ample and easily wasted resource endowment we're chewing up. See the book A Canticle for Leibowitz for a rough picture of how our opportunity may unfold.
Given that hope is where we flee when we have no plan and instead must consign ourselves to some fate immediately at hand ("I hope I don't sink even though I neglected to install a bilge pump"), I'm not sure that the concept of deeper time unpacks as hopeful.
But comforting, yes. Comfort being the term for what we offer the bereaved, when hope is played out. :-)
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Eclectic at 09:11 AM on 4 July 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022
Doug , in one sense Peppers may be correct (if unknowingly).
In the opinion of the eminent evolutionary biologist Stephen Gould : if we completely trashed the planetary environment, and all mammals and other higher animals died off . . . it would not matter much, because in about 15 million years or so, new life-forms would evolve to take their place.
A comforting thought !
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Doug Bostrom at 08:10 AM on 4 July 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022
"It is physically impossible that the balance is not there."
Yes, and here in the context of CO2 added to the atmosphere that balance is to do with radiative equilibrium. Equilibrium will happen— accompanied by many changes, mostly of an awkward nature as can be seen if one bothers to check research findings. One can easily calculate a ratio of good/bad by following NR, here. The ratio isn't good.
"That meteor 66 millions years ago ( killed dinosaurs and 3- of every 4 living things on earth) lowered the world 5 degrees overnight and darkened the earth completely sunless for 6 years. 30 degree F drop in 6 years, then swinging higher than previous normal and climbing to 2000-2500ppm once the sun returned. It all came back."
After enough death and dying (aka "evolutionary pressure"), everything was fine— right, got it. And the human species is collectively behaving like a brainless rock, yes. How is this good news, consolation, or reassurance? Meanwhile, thinking in geologic time isn't our nature and as well isn't really helpful in terms of dealing with changes happening right now.
The irony kicker:
"More co2 increases foliage (detected by Nasa's MOTIS), more transpiration, more moisture in the air, more low clouds with higher albedo."
If one bothered to follow NR and rather than instantly singing a comforting cantata of vague hopes instead read only titles and abstracts of papers listed here, one wouldn't make such a glib, facilely optimistic remark. One would know that neither of those claims pencil out as salvation.
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michael sweet at 08:03 AM on 4 July 2022What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
JHBrewer @47
I found this information:
Some common light nuclei for comparison (the tables are hard to read each time to consult):H - scattering 4,24 barns at 1 MeV, 20,4 barns thermal, capture 332 millibarns thermal D - scattering 2,87 barns at 1 MeV, 3,4 barns thermal, capture 0,5 millibarns thermal He - scattering 7,06 barns at 1 MeV, 0,77 barns thermal, capture impossible C - scattering 2,58 barns at 1 MeV, 4,74 barns thermal, capture 3,86 millibarns thermal O-16 - scattering 8,15 barns at 1 MeV, 3,85 barns thermal, capture 0,19 millibarns thermal
Reference: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/helium-as-moderator.637730/
Apparently the cross section of Helium is low for thermal neutrons. It is also interesting that helium-4 cannot absorb neutrons at all, the only element with this property. It seems to me that the main reason the helium has low effect on the neutron energy is its low density since it is a gas, but I could be incorrect. I did not find any references to using argon as a coolant. I guess argon might absorb too many neutrons.
I suggest yiou read the papers summarized in the link of post 23. Here is another link. That source has a number of peer reviewed articles about high temperature gas reactors and the materials they require.
Reading some of the abstracs it seems to me that it is a waste of time to discuss high temperature gas reactors. They are described as needing very large amounts of R&D to build. They are unlikely to be designed before 2050 and will be of no use building out a completely non-carbon energy system in that time frame.
Nuclear power is not economic and the materials to build the reactors do not exist.
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peppers at 00:53 AM on 4 July 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022
I see this as a sort of misplaced approach to this issue, as all this data does little to folks passing by your stand at the swap meet. You are addressing people who may be saying there is no changing happening, and I dont think that remains logical. But some may be saying that to be obstinant or antagonistic. For myself, I dont think that change is happening is hard to see. The crisis stated by all this refers to the hockey puc being a precident in history, and the world will now be ending shortly by a runaway cycle. The train barreling down on a next generations child was the fearsome icon. But the world has experienced this before. That meteor 66 millions years ago ( killed dinosaurs and 3- of every 4 living things on earth) lowered the world 5 degrees overnight and darkened the earth completely sunless for 6 years. 30 degree F drop in 6 years, then swinging higher than previous normal and climbing to 2000-2500ppm once the sun returned. It all came back. My point is that, no matter it happening or the source, the world ( the universe ) balances. More co2 increases foliage (detected by Nasa's MOTIS), more transpiration, more moisture in the air, more low clouds with higher albedo. You will find even more paths of balance if you turn your capable eye to the cycling of nature, meaning the inescapable balance of all cycles. It is physically impossible that the balance is not there, I assure you. I am happy to elaborate more if there is interest. Thanks and best, David
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Eclectic at 22:07 PM on 3 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra Liverani @29 and prior :
You seem strongly drawn to highlighting (in this "misinformation" thread) the case of Dr Samantha Bailey of New Zealand, whom you have championed [according to Reddit] for more than a year now.
Assuming* that you yourself are not Dr Bailey, it would be a useful case study of misinformation if you would analyse the psychological condition of Dr Bailey.
[ * we cannot expect much insight from actual patients. ]
Not having heard of her before now, I can only speculate on her commercial & non-commercial motivations for denying the mainstream science of viruses, vaccines, PCR's and so on.
Petra, you have had considerable time to study her, and so your thoughts and speculations on Dr Bailey's mindset would be most interesting, I am sure. ( Quite possibly the Moderator may permit discussion of the underlying motivations of individuals who immerse themselves in & publicize misinformation/ disinformation. )
Moderator Response:[BL] Please tread carefully. Discussions of a specific individual are unlikely to be constructive. Discussions of general psychological traits that would lead people to be more or less susceptible to believing misinformation may be appropriate - but should be presented in the context of the information in the blog post.
And for all - keep in mind that there is a Comments Policy here. One specific item that is worth mentioning, as I see signs that is is being threatened by recent posts, is:
Comments should avoid excessive repetition. Discussions which circle back on themselves and involve endless repetition of points already discussed do not help clarify relevant points. They are merely tiresome to participants and a barrier to readers. If moderators believe you are being excessively repetitive, they will advise you as such, and any further repetition will be treated as being off topic.
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Petra Liverani at 20:35 PM on 3 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Nigelj @24
Dr Sam Bailey has been sacked from her presenter job with NZ TV's, The Checkup, for refusing the jab, struck off the medical register and had her YouTube videos pulled down. No argument against what the authorities tell us about the pandemic is allowed in the media. I'm really not sure where you're not seeing censorship here. It's right there in the absence of any dissidence. All things dissident are simply labelled misinformation and ridiculed.Moderator Response:[BL] You keep throwing around the pejorative "censorship".
Losing a job because you will not meet an employer's health and safety requirements is not censorship.
Losing the right to practise medicine due to giving bad medical advice is not censorship.
A decision by a private corporation to disallow the use of their service is not censorship.
Nobody has the right to force anyone else to give access to their megaphone.
"The media" is not a single monolithic entity that acts in unison. "The media" is not required to report every misguided person's pet theories.
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Petra Liverani at 20:30 PM on 3 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Philippe @25,
Sam Bailey says the experiments done to show the existence of viruses don't follow the scientific method - and her criticism is not very complicated, a major point she makes is that they don't use controls and nor do the experiments to show infection follow the scientific method. She doesn't actually say viruses don't exist although I wish she'd make it clear that she's just pointing out the problem with the experiments rather than saying pathogens causing measles or whatever don't exist. They can, of course, easily exist, it's just that, according to her and others, the experiments to show their existence aren't correct.
And so what if she's wrong? Then argue against what she says. Let her speak. -
Petra Liverani at 19:52 PM on 3 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
BaerbelW @26
There's no point putting forward alleged covid facts. I'm familiar with the alleged facts. What needs to be looked at is the argument against the alleged facts and the response to the argument against. We need to follow the debunking trail.
If we look at this argument debunking the refuters of the alleged facts it looks pretty good ... but then in the comments we see someone debunking this debunking.
https://www.integralworld.net/visser201.html#2
As a non-scientist I can't really follow that very scientific argument but what I can follow are many aspects of the narrative that don't add up that are not of a particularly scientific nature ... and those I put in my page. You don't have to be a scientist to see certain anomalies.Moderator Response:[BL] Alas, I will have to step out of this discussion as a regular participant and take on the role of moderator. This discussion is starting to go off the rails.
You said in comment #23 "..but I didn't believe in covid from Day One." Throwing around terms such as "alleged facts" makes it pretty clear that you are rejecting anything that would go against that initial belief. You are challenging others to to consider alternative explanations, when you clearly will not accept any evidence that goes against the belief you had "from Day One".
Now, you admit that you are not a scientist. This is obvious. Scientists can and do listen to credible alternative hypotheses.
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BaerbelW at 16:18 PM on 3 July 2022How to inoculate yourself against misinformation
Petra @23
From your comments it looks as if you'll need to update your understanding about Covid. Here is a link to a wiki put together by a large team of scientists:
https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/covidfacts
And as some of your claims smack of conspiracy ideation as some others here have already pointed out, here is the link to the Conspiracy Theory Handbook: https://sks.to/conspiracy
If you decide to read it you should be able to tell which of the 7 traits of conspiratorial thinking make an appearance in your arguments:
