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Comments 1351 to 1400:

1351. One Planet Only Forever at 08:00 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      daveburton,

      I will try to limit how much I repeat any of the assistance others have provided to increase your awareness and improve your understanding of the issues. I will try to focus on aspects of your response @10 that have not yet been addressed.

      I think it may be best to respond in reverse as follows.

      Regarding: "Assumption #2: You seem to think that the CO2 level controls sea-level."

      That is a misunderstanding of my comment. I am aware of and understand the following Common Sense Consensus knowledge:

      Increased CO2 levels will result in a warmer global average surface temperature resulting in the reduction of the amount of water that is stored as ice supported by land (melting of ice supported by water does not change the level - unless the melting of that ice accelerates the flow of land supported ice to the ocean). Most of the water that is no longer "ice supported on land" will drain into the oceans resulting in a higher sea level (and this process will take a long time to reach a balanced state after CO2 levels stop increasing).

      In addition to the sea level change due to melted ice, an increased level of CO2 in the atmosphere will result in an increased average temperature of the oceans. And water expands as it warms resulting in a higher average sea level in addition to the melted ice impact.

      Regarding: "Assumption #1: You assume that there's such a thing as "a locked-in doubling of CO2.""

      I was not assuming anything. I was presenting a hypothetical situation for consideration. That situation is a case where CO2 levels reach 560 ppm and stay at that level due to continued human impacts.

      Simply asking what the sea level will be when CO2 levels reach 560 ppm will result in a vast range of answers. There are a diversity of cases where CO2 levels reach 560 ppm that would have significantly different expected maximum sea level rise. They include the following:

      1. CO2 rapidly reaching 560 ppm and continuing to rapidly increase. That will produce a low amount of sea level increase at the moment that 560 ppm is reached. But it would cause a much higher level in the distant 'balanced condition' of the future that will be established at some significant time after CO2 levels are no longer being increased.
      2. CO2 levels slowly reaching 560 ppm and continuing to slowly increase. That would result in a higher sea level when 560 ppm is reached that in case 1. But if the same 'maximum ppm level' as in case 1 is reached then the long term sea level rise would likely be comparable to case 1.
      3. CO2 level increases to 560 ppm then is held steady by continued human impacts (a locked in level of CO2). This is the case I was referring to. Indeed you misunderstood my comment.
      4. CO2 levels rise to 560 ppm and then are rapidly reduced by human industrial CO2 removal or other human impact changes that result in reduction of CO2 levels rather than a steady level of 560 ppm. This is closer to what an ethical consideration would conclude. The more ethical conclusion is that CO2 levels should not be allowed to reach 560 ppm. And human actions to remove CO2 from the atmosphere are required even though the CO2 levels do not reach 560 ppm.

      Finally regarding your opening statement: "...why are you asking me "about the human origins of global warming"? My comment had nothing to do with that."

      I was not asking a question. I was pointing out that the information you provided did not affect the conclusion of the OP. Your comment could be considered to be an attempt to use a 'new twist' of the "Hansen got it wrong" claim.

      That raises a new question. Why did you make the claim you made @8?

1352. daveburton at 07:39 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Rob wrote, "that greening is now turning into 'browning.'"

      Well, here's what AR6 shows:
      

      Some people point to that little orange box and say that greening has ceased. That reminds me of the folks who say that the it's not as warm as the 2015-16 El Nino, so warming has ceased.

      
      Philippe wrote, "There is probably a better thread for this argument,"

      I agree.  I was just trying to address OnePlanet's remark about a "locked in" CO2 level.

      Philippe wrote, "There is only one factor that truly controls how green any region can be: water availability."

      That's a common misconception. Elevated CO2 levels greatly improve plants' water use efficiency (WUE) and drought resilience. That's why elevated CO2 is especially beneficial for crops when under drought stress. It has been heavily studied by agronomists. Here's a paper about wheat:

      Fitzgerald GJ, et al. (2016) Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves. Glob Chang Biol. 22(6):2269-84. doi:10.1111/gcb.13263.

      Philippe wrote, "The experiences that have shown a CO2 fertilization effect were done in very controlled conditions and involved extremely high concentrations (800 ppm and up)."

      That's incorrect. All major crops have been studied, and all benefit from elevated CO2. It is true that the greatest benefits accrue at 1000 ppmv or higher, but even modest CO2 increases significantly improve crop yields.

      This recent study quantifies the effect for several major crops. Their results are toward the high end, but their qualitative conclusion is consistent with many, many other studies. They reported, "We consistently find a large CO2 fertilization effect: a 1 ppm increase in CO2 equates to a 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% yield increase for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively."

      This study evaluated pine trees:

      Idso, S., & Kimball, B. (1994). Effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on biomass accumulation and distribution in Eldarica pine trees. Journal of Experimental Botany, 45, 1669-1672.
      

      As you noted, the effect is greatest with CO2 >800 ppmv, but, as you can see, even a much smaller CO2 increase has a substantial effect.

      
      Rob wrote, "This entire paragraph is patently absurd and completely fabricated."

      It is 100% factual, Rob. I'm surprised that you didn't already know it.

      These figures are from that same AR6 Table 5.1 excerpt which I already showed you:

      average CO2 removal rate in the 2010s = 2.7707 ppmv/yr
      average CO2 removal rate in teh 2000s = 2.3481 ppmv/yr

      These figures are from Mauna Loa:

      average CO2 level in the 2010s = 399.91 ppmv
      average CO2 level in the 2000s = 378.84 ppmv

      (399.91-378.84) / (2.7707-2.3481) = 49.86

      So a 50 ppmv increase in CO2 level accelerates the natural removal rate by about 1 ppmv/year.

      49.86 / 2.1294 = 23.42 ppmv increase yields a +1 PgC removal rate increase.

      I encourage you to do the calculations yourself for any other time period of your choice.

      If you have the natural removal rate as a function of CO2 level (which we do), it is trivial to simulate the CO2 level decline if emissions were to suddenly cease. I wrote a little Perl program to do it; email me if you want a copy.

      Rob wrote, "if true, the oceans would just continue to suck up all the atmospheric CO2 and we'd live on a frozen planet."

      That's incorrect. The system progresses toward equilibrium, which is below 300 ppmv, but not zero.

      Rob wrote, "rather that starting from a prior where all the published science is getting it wrong, and making stuff up... you don't have the requisite training to fully grasp the topic"

      Rob, it's not necessary to resort to ad hominem attacks. I'm happy to document things that are surprising to you. You need but ask. Everything I've written is well-supported.

      Rob wrote, "take some time to fully familiarize yourself with Henry's Law."

      Due to the temperature dependence of Henry's Law, a 1°C increase in temperature slows CO2 uptake by the oceans by about 3%. But a 50% (140 ppmv) rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration accelerates CO2 uptake by the oceans by 50%. That's the main reason that ocean uptake of CO2 continues to accelerate.

1353. michael sweet at 07:27 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Dave Burton:

      I note that the last time Carbon dioxide was over 400 ppm the sea level was more than 20 meters higher than current sea level.

      Your sea level graphs are obviously flawed.  A simple eye ball look at the data from the Battery in New York shows that at the start of the time period the data is above the fit line and at the end of the time period the data is way above the fit line.  That means that the line does not fit the data and some sort of curved line is needed because the rate of sea level rise is increasing over the time period you chose.

      In addition, you have cherry picked two single locations to do your calculations without justifying your choice.

      Fortunately, Tamino did an analysis of sea level rise before he stopped posting analysis. (Tamino is a professional statistical data analyzer who has published on sea level rise).  He analyized "the data for every tide gauge station in region 3 which had at least 360 months’ data (at least 30 years), at least 120 months of which (10 years of which) are since the year 2000 — after all, we do want to know what’s happening now. That leaves 10 stations".  Since he used all the available data his data is not cherry picked like yours is.

      Here is one of his graphs of the rate of sea level rise on the East coast of the Gulf of Mexico:

      

      We see immediately that sea level rise does not follow a straight line but varies over the 100 year time from of analysis.  Of particluar interest is the dramatic increase in sea level rise since 2010.  

      The dramatic increase in sea level rise observed since 2010 holds true for an analysis of the entire globe.  Your analysis using a linear fit is simply incorrect and cherry picked.

      I note that the rate of rise since 2010 is more than double all the previous rates.

      We would expect that if the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere remains above 400 ppm that the sea level will rise 20 meters plus.  The question is only how fast the sea will rise.  We see the rise is rapidly increasing every year now.  Your linear fit deliberately hides the observed rise. 

      I note that the change in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has rapidly increased over the past 50 years so one would expect the sea level change to rapidly increase over that time period.  Including the data back to 1900 with a linear fit just hides the recent rapid increase in sea level rise.

      Does anyone know how Tamino is doing?

1354. nigelj at 07:16 AM on 6 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      From Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution :

      One of the most common negative responses Sarah Cooley gets when she speaks to community groups about ocean acidification is, “What do you mean, ocean acidification? The ocean is not acidic! Seawater is never going to get below pH 7—so you must not know what you’re talking about.

      That’s partly true, said Cooley, a postdoctoral researcher at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The pH of seawater is near 8, which makes it mildly alkaline, or basic; but any decrease in the pH of a liquid is considered “acidification.”

      “It’s a lot easier to say ‘ocean acidification’ than ‘ocean de-alkalinization,” said Cooley.

      pH is an index of how many protons, or hydrogen ions (H+) are dissolved and free in a solution. The pH scale goes from 0 to 14. A fluid with a pH of 7 is neutral. Below 7, it is acidic; above 7, it is alkaline.

      A small drop in pH means big change in acidity: The pH of seawater is near 8, which makes it mildly alkaline, or basic; but any decrease in the pH of a liquid is considered “acidification.” The key danger factor is an increase in dissolved hydrogen ions.(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

      The more below or above 7 a solution is, the more acidic or alkaline it is. The scale is not linear—a drop from pH 8.2 to 8.1 indicates a 30 percent increase in acidity, or concentration of hydrogen ions; a drop from 8.1 to 7.9 indicates a 150 percent increase in acidity. Bottom line: Small-sounding changes in ocean pH are actually quite large and definitely in the direction of becoming less alkaline, which is the same as becoming more acidic.

      If you think about it, we use descriptive words like this all the time. A person who stands 5’5” tall and weighs 300 pounds isn’t thin. If he loses 100 pounds, he still won’t be thin, but he will be thinner than he was before he went on the diet. (And we are more likely to comment that he’s looking trimmer than to say he’s not as fat as he used to be.)

      www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/small-drop-in-ph-means-big-change-in-acidity/#:~:text=The%20more%20below%20or%20above,150%20percent%20increase%20in%20acidity.

1355. Rob Honeycutt at 04:13 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Dave, I think you should take some time to fully familiarize yourself with Henry's Law. Here's a starter teaching video, but don't stop there. Dig deeper and really learn what this means in relation to the ocean/atmosphere relationship for CO2.

      https://youtu.be/9JtTpPEesOk

1356. MA Rodger at 04:10 AM on 6 July 2023
      Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
      

      manuel2001nyc @444,
      You are very dedicated. It is a super-human task attempting to learn from the comments in a long comments-thread such as this.

      I would guess the term "saturation" you used concerns more the saturation as in laser intensity** rather than any climatological/atmospheric consideration. (**That is, an excited CO2 molecule cannot absorb IR until it has returned to its unexcited state. Such consideration doesn't really apply here.)
      As other commenters have explained, 15μm IR can be absorbed by CO2 and the resulting excited CO2 molecules would almost always then be in collision with other atmospheric molecules and lose its excitation in that manner. Thus the absorbed IR energy is converted into thermal energy in the atmosphere. This process is because these collisions with molecules in the atmosphere will occur within microseconds while the relaxation period allowing the CO2 to emit IR is on average in the tenths of seconds.
      But that does not mean there is little 15μm IR emitted by CO2 or that such emissions are rare. As well as taking-away the excitation from a CO2 molecule, these numerous collisions can also impart excitation into CO2 molecules. Thus the vast majority of the excited CO2 is because of these impacts. And if the Earth's surface is at the same temperature as the local atmosphere, the CO2 will be shooting off the same amount of 15μm IR back down at the surface as the surface is shooting upwards. (Note the surface only shoots upwards while the CO2 will shoot both up and down)

      So, to answer yor first question.
      It is a rough rule in physics that the absorption and emission of photons balance, usually. If they don't there will be a net flow of energy, with more/less emissions cooling/heating the substance and thus reducing/increasing emissions. Thus the absorption-emission balance would be achieved.

      The 8μm-14μm waveband is often called the Infrared Window because in a dry atmosphere the IR from Earth's surface has a clear path out into space. Clouds would block that clear path and water vapour acts as a weak absorber.

      There is other IR absorbtion in the 8μm-14μm waveband. There is a strong ozone absorption band at 9.6μm. Also, if we do let CO2 concentrations rise far enough, CO2 absorption bands will appear close to 10μm, these starting to become significant for CO2 concentrations above 1,000ppm.

1357. Rob Honeycutt at 04:02 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Dave @15... "The commonly heard claim that... [...] That's the "effective atmospheric lifetime" of our current CO2 emissions."

      This entire paragraph is patently absurd and completely fabricated. If you had even one legitimate research paper that made such a claim it might be worth evaluating. But the ridiculousness of your claim is made apparent because, if true, the oceans would just continue to suck up all the atmospheric CO2 and we'd live on a frozen planet.

      You know, rather that starting from a prior where all the published science is getting it wrong, and making stuff up to justify that position, maybe try stepping back from the issue. Start from the realization that you don't have the requisite training to fully grasp the topic and endeavor to learn what actual experts in the field can teach you.

1358. daveburton at 03:51 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Thanks for fixing those links, Rob. We were obviously typing simultaneously; you beat me to it by 7 minutes.

      However, nothing I wrote was misleading. If you "follow the link to the actual IPCC page to read the full" table, you'll see that it shows exactly what I said it shows: as atmospheric CO2 levels have risen, the natural CO2 removal rate has sharply accelerated. (That's a strong negative/stabilizing climate feedback.)

      The commonly heard claim that "the change in CO2 concentration will persist for centuries and millennia to come" is based on the "long tail" of a hypothetical CO2 concentration decay curve, for a scenario in which anthropogenic CO2 emissions go to zero, CO2 level drops toward 300 ppmv, and carbon begins slowly migrating back out of the deep oceans and terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. It's true in the sense that if CO2 emissions were to cease, it would be millenia before the CO2 level would drop below 300 ppmv. But the first half-life for the modeled CO2 level decay curve is only about 35 years, corresponding to an e-folding "adjustment time" of about fifty years. That's the "effective atmospheric lifetime" of our current CO2 emissions.

      Moreover, it is not correct to say that "the ocean takes up about half of our emissions." Our emissions are currently around 11 PgC/year (per the GCP). The oceans remove CO2 from the atmosphere at a current rate of a little over 2.5 PgC/year, but they are not removing some fixed fraction of our emissions. If we halved our emission rate, natural CO2 removals would continue at their current rate.

      Because human CO2 emissions are currently faster than natural CO2 removals, we've increased the atmospheric CO2 level by about 50% (140 ppmv), but we've increased the amount of carbon in the oceans by less than 0.5%, as you can see in AR5 WG1 Fig. 6-1. (It's not a problem for "sea dwelling creatures.")

      In the oceans, biology generally trumps chemistry, and that is certainly true for CO2 uptake. Some people think that the capacity of the oceans to take up CO2 is limited to surface water by ocean stratification. But that's incorrect, beause the "biological carbon pump" rapidly moves CO2 from surface waters into the ocean depths, in the form of "marine snow."

      The higher CO2 levels go, the faster that "pump" works. Here's a paper about it:
      https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/science.aaa8026

      Once carbon has migrated from the ocean surface to the depths, most of it remains sequestered for a very long time. Some of it settles on the ocean floor, but even dissolved carbon is sequestered for a long time. For instance, it is estimated that the AMOC takes about 1000 years to move carbon-rich water from high latitudes to the tropics, where it can reemerge. That is obviously far longer than the anthropogenic CO2 emission spike will last.

1359. Philippe Chantreau at 03:33 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      There is probably a better thread for this argument, but I always feel that I have to interject when the CO2 fertilization argument is mentioned. That is because it is among the most mendacious and inept arguments out there.

      There is no place on Earth where the lack of CO2 (as in pre-industrial concentration) can be shown to have prevented vegetation from thriving. There is only one factor that truly controls how green any region can be: water availability. It dwarfs all other factors together. The Hawaiian islands show this in the most obvious way possible, with precipitation variations such that one side can be arid or semi-arid while the other is covered with rainforest.

      Everywhere on the planet where water availability allows for it, the richest plant life has thrived and reached the maximum extent possible in term of biomass and biodiversity. The rainforests of Africa often exists on top of extremely poor soil (laterite) but given enough time, they manages to feed themselfves, as the soil's entire top layer is composed of vegetal debris fallen over time. The soil is thin, hence the buttresses evolved by tree species in an environement where they can't grow roots down very deep. Under it is the laterite, something so sterile that it makes for better road covering material than tarmac in these regions: the laterite roads require less maintenance and last longer.

      The experiences that have shown a CO2 fertilization effect were done in very controlled conditions and involved extremely high concentrations (800 ppm and up). The so-called greening that has been observed in some regions by satellite or other means can not be ascribed to CO2 fertilization to the exclusion of other factors because all such factors can not be known, neither can their exact contribution to the greening.

      Anywhere on the planet where there is not enough water available, plant life will not thrive, no matter how much CO2, nitrogen or phosphate we throw at it. Water availability and rain patterns should be on top of priority list of concerns of anyone looking into solutions to feed 9 billion people. Available means falling regularly in reasonable quantities. Torrential rains spaced at long intervals with nothing between don't do much good without massive engineering projects.

      Ii is ironic that some use the argument that the CO2 concentration change is too small to make an effect when it comes to radiative forcing, where it can be calculated with great precision, but then jump on making wild claims about the effect of that change on vegetation, where it can be, at best, observed to have a small effect in controlled conditions, and with concentration changes far greater than what has happened in nature. 

1360. Rob Honeycutt at 01:46 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Dave... On the little red notation in your first graphic where is says "greening"... that greening is now turning into "browning." Read up on CO2 fertilization. It was long predicted there would be some fertilization before that process was overwhelmed by other effects. That is now observed. In other words, the greening has now stopped.

      But again, similar to the ocean, this effect was a function of the terrestrial uptakes in response to atmospheric increases that are rising at a more rapid pace. Terrestrial sinks can't keep up with the pace of human emissions.

1361. daveburton at 01:37 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Sorry, I didn't realize that bare URLs don't automatically get recognized and turned into links.

      Here's AR6 WG1 Table 5.1, which shows how natural CO2 removals are accelerating:
      LINK

      Here it is with the relevant bits highlighted:
      https://sealevel.info/AR6_WG1_Table_5.1.png
      Or, more concisely:
      LINK
      
      (Note: 1 PgC = 0.46962 ppmv = 3.66419 Gt CO2.)
      
      

      Here are the best long U.S. Atlantic and Pacific sea-level measurement records, respectively, with linear and quadratic regressions calculated for the last 100 years (based on monthly mean sea level data from 1923/6 through 2023/5):

      https://sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?id=Battery&c_date=1923/6-2023/5
      
      linear trend = 3.293 ±0.163 mm/yr
      acceleration = 0.00641 ±0.01258 mm/yr²

      https://sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?id=Honolulu&c_date=1923/6-2023/5
      
      linear trend = 1.534 ±0.236 mm/yr
      acceleration = 0.00568 ±0.01825 mm/yr²

      Moderator Response:

      [RH] You're also going to want to learn to shorten extra long URL's by changing the display text.

1362. Rob Honeycutt at 01:30 AM on 6 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      Dave... So much is wrong in that post. Let's just start with atmospheric CO2 perturbation. No one claims it stays up there forever. But the change in CO2 concentration will persist for centuries and millennia to come. 

      https://climatehomes.unibe.ch/~joos/papers/joos97eps.pdf

      Your sealevel.info snippet is misleading, and I assume you understand that virtually no one is going to follow the link to the actual IPCC page to read the full passage, because it will directly contradict what you're saying.

      What you're looking at in those changes is a function of partial pressure. The ocean takes up about half of our emissions (lucky for those of us who live in the atmosphere, not so lucky for sea dwelling creatures). The increases you're demonstrating are merely a function of increased atmospheric concentrations. The oceans, in particular, are not going to continue to take up CO2 beyond what it's capable of doing due to partial pressure.

      https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake

1363. rkcannon at 00:19 AM on 6 July 2023
      Renewables can't provide baseload power
      

      anmin @198, You'd need compressed air to pressurize the water.  "Only 10% to 20% of the energy required to generate compressed air ever reaches the point of. use, while the remaining energy is wasted in the form of heat. The over-all efficiency of a typical compressed air. system can be as low as 10%-15%". NH.gov.  If you could pump the water up high enough in a tank, you could then use gravity to pressurize the water and run a pump and power a generator, possible the same pump/motor used to pump the water up, but run in reverse.  Or on a large scale, a lake is used.  From energy.gov,
      What is Pumped Storage Hydropower?

      Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a type of hydroelectric energy storage. It is a configuration of two water reservoirs at different elevations that can generate power as water moves down from one to the other (discharge), passing through a turbine. The system also requires power as it pumps water back into the upper reservoir (recharge). PSH acts similarly to a giant battery, because it can store power and then release it when needed. The Department of Energy's "Pumped Storage Hydropower" video explains how pumped storage works.

      The first known use cases of PSH were found in Italy and Switzerland in the 1890s, and PSH was first used in the United States in 1930. Now, PSH facilities can be found all around the world! According to the 2021 edition of the Hydropower Market Report, PSH currently accounts for 93% of all utility-scale energy storage in the United States. America currently has 43 PSH plants and has the potential to add enough new PSH plants to more than double its current PSH capacity.

1364. daveburton at 17:24 PM on 5 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      One Planet, why are you asking me "about the human origins of global warming"?  My comment had nothing to do with that.
      
      As for your first indented question, it appears that you've made two unjustifiable assumptions:
      
      Assumption #1: You assume that there's such a thing as "a locked-in doubling of CO2."
      
      If I understand you correctly, that means you think CO2 added to the atmosphere just stays "locked in" there, forever, and the longer we add CO2 to the air the higher the level will rise. Is that what you think?
      
      If that's what you think, you're mistaken. CO2 doesn't just stay in the atmosphere. Nature is rapidly removing CO2 from the air, into other carbon reservoirs. The only reason the atmospheric CO2 level is nevertheless rising instead of falling is that we're adding CO2 to the air even faster than nature is removing it.
      
      But it's becoming harder and harder to keep up with natural CO2 removals, because they're accelerating. This is an excerpt from AR6 WG1 Table 5.1, showing how the removals are accelerating:
      
      LINK (Note: 1 PgC = 0.46962 ppmv = 3.66419 Gt CO2.)

      
      At the current 420 ppmv level (i.e., 135-140 ppmv above a 280-285 ppmv baseline), those negative feedbacks already remove an average of about 5.5 PgC per year (= about 2.6 ppmv), and for each 20-25 ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration those removals accelerate by another 1 PgC/year.
      
      With our current emission rate, the CO2 level is only rising by about 5.1 PgC/year (+2.4 ppmv). So it won't take much of a CO2 level increase before natural removals match our current emission rate: just (20 to 25 ppmv/PgC) × 5.1 PgC = (102 to 128) ppmv.
      
      420 + (102 to 128) = 522 to 548 ppmv. That's the "plateau level" beyond which the atmospheric CO2 level cannot rise, unless our emissions increase further. If we were to continue our current anthropogenic emission rate indefinitely (or until the coal runs out), we'd still not quite reach 560 ppmv.
      
      Assumption #2: You seem to think that the CO2 level controls sea-level. But the data do not support that assumption. Most coastal measurement sites have seen negligible acceleration in sea-level trend over the last century, even as the atmospheric CO2 level rose by 115 ppmv.
      
      Here are the best long U.S. Atlantic and Pacific measurement records, respectively:
      https://sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?id=Battery&c_date=1923/6-2024/12
      https://sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?id=Honolulu&c_date=1923/6-2024/12
      Both show a statistically insiginficant acceleration of 0.006 mm/yr² (± at least twice that) over the last century.
      
      Hogarth studied many long measurement records, and concluded, "Sea level acceleration from extended tide gauge data converges on 0.01 mm/yr²"

      That's very, very slight.

      To calculate the effect of that acceleration use the following quadradic formula:

      y = B + M·x + (A/2)·x²

      where:

      x is elapsed time
      y is position or sea-level after time x
      B is initial position or sea-level
      M is current rate
      A is acceleration

      So (choosing some fairly typical values) if:

      M = 1.5 mm/yr
      A = 0.01 mm/yr²
      x = 100 yrs

      And if the trends were to continue:

      y = B + 100·1.5 + (0.01/2)·100²
      = B + 150 + 0.005·10000
      = B + 150 + 50
      = 200 mm = 7.9 inches

      6" of that 8" is from the linear trend, and 2" of that 8" is due to acceleration.

      However, there's a subtle twist. When acceleration is estimated by quadratic regression, we're fitting a quadratic curve to the measurement record to date. Extending that curve is the projection. But the curve's slope matches the linear tread at the midpoint, not at the end.

      So, to find y (sea-level) 100 years from NOW, we should use x = 100+(L/2), where L is length of the measurement record.

      So if we have a 100 year measurement record, to calculate the accumulated effect of the acceleration 100 years from now we should use x=150, not x=100.

      Remember our formula:

      y = B + M·x + (A/2)·x²

      That last term is the effect of acceleration; using x=150 we get:

      (A/2)·x² = 0.005·150² = 0.005·22500 = 112.5 mm = 4.4 inches.

      So, an acceleration of 0.01 mm/year² is still negligible, but it's a "slightly bigger negligible."

      A warming climate is know to have effects which both increase and decrease sea-level. Based on the negligible effect that the last century's CO2 increase and consenquent warming has had on sea-level trends, it is clear that, so far, the effects which increase and decrease sea-level must be similar in magnitude, and roughly cancelling.
      
      So the assumption that a particular CO2 level "locks in" a particular sea-level is not justifiable.

      Moderator Response:

      [RH] Dave, you've been on this site many times now. Please learn how to hot link your citations. It's really easy to do.

1365. John Mason at 16:42 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon #23,

      The closer towards neutral the oceans become, the more compromised calcifying organisms will be.
      
      And we're talking about whole fisheries and people's livelihoods here. This is no laughing matter. Nitpicking the choice of words in a newspaper headline is, in that context, trivialising a very serious situation. Note also that journalists - typically sub-editors - write the headlines, not scientists.

1366. Gordon at 16:31 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      John @20

      Headlines this THIS dont help the cause.

      AI reports 5 - 9 correctly as basic.

      4-5 less acidic

      9-8 more acidic

      Yes, the ocean is alkaline but it will never be acidic.

1367. Rob Honeycutt at 15:58 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      I think if you asked anyone on the street whether the ocean is acidic or alkaline the top answer would be "I don't know."

      I imagine ocean acidification has a fairly low awareness level in the general public compared to climate change.

1368. BaerbelW at 15:32 PM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      Duran3d @75

      You may want to read the explanation about a scientific consensus - which is after all what this rebuttal is all about:

      https://sks.to/consensus-explainer

1369. Eclectic at 15:10 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon @19 ,

      Yes, "acidification"  has well and truly "stuck".  And the ocean is changing in its physical reality of H+  and OH-  ratio (and is changing so rapidly that it is causing adverse effects in the marine molluscs & calciferous micro-fauna, etc.  That change might not matter 10,000 years in the future . . . but for now it is worthy of attention).

      So . . . putting aside your abstract interest in different words  ~ what is the substantive point that you wish to make?

      [ Gordon, I hope you do not represent some ChatGPT-like group, who is simply aiming to improve on AI language skills.  The thread here is about scientific & practical problems of rapid acidification of the planetary ocean. ]

1370. John Mason at 14:54 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon #1, #19

      I've known about acidification for some 45 years - since I started doing science at school and took that to A level. But what about people who bunked-off science classes in their teens and have only encountered acid in car batteries?

      I bet if you asked anyone on the street whether the ocean was acidic or alkaline the common response would be acidic.

      I wonder? Hopefully not if they have read the at-a-glance intro to the topic, where I first mention the pH of seawater with, "Now, typical seawater is slightly alkaline at around pH 8.1"

      I don't know what AI you have used but it would be instructive to see what it made of taking a solution from pH 5 to pH 9 - well into the alkaline side of neutral - not that AI is reliable. It tends to tell you what you want to read! But your exercise (Ph 4 to pH 5) only takes a stronger acid to a weaker acid. The solution is still on the acidic side of neutral.

1371. Gordon at 14:28 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Eclectic,

      Exactly, words should be used to improve communication.  I bet if you asked anyone on the street whether the ocean was acidic or alkaline the common response would be acidic.  If you say acidification enough times its gonna stick.  If you look HERE the takeaway will be that the ocean is becoming more of something it is not !

1372. Rob Honeycutt at 14:23 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon @15...

      Liquid/frozen and acidic/alkaline are not analogous being that the former has a phase change at zero celcius. The later is merely a definition of a range in pH with no phase change.

      Every time I've run into this entire argument (and it's been many times over) I always ask the other person to look at the scientific literature and see how the term "acidification" is used. I ask them to find any research that uses a different term. 

      Never has anyone taken up that task, and in the end I always do it for them. 

      The term is correct in its usage applied to ocean acidification. The term is consistent with other unrelated research. There are no other terms used that represent the same process. As Eclectic says, it is merely semantics to argue otherwise.

1373. Rob Honeycutt at 14:06 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      What was the name of that 1930's film? Oh, yeah...

      "Go less east, young man!" :-)

1374. Eclectic at 13:55 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon :  putting aside all questions of semantics & wordplay  ~ I must confess that I am failing to grasp the fundamental point which you might be aiming to convey.

      Scientists know that the ocean is undergoing acidification [or de-alkalinisation , if such a word exists].   However: "Acidification"  is the commonly-used term, which is understood by everyone having a scientific interest in the issue at hand.   Just as the (very imperfect) term GreenHouse Effect  is commonly-used and widely-understood [by the science-minded layman, too ].

      Words should be used to improve  communication ~ rather than be used to obscure whatever important point it is that you wish to discuss.  And what is that point which you wish to discuss here in this thread?   Please make yourself clear.

      [Your quote that a "liquid can be a solid"  (@15) is an example of poor communication.]

1375. Gordon at 13:35 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Bob,

      Maybe it might be clearer if I go back to my original Analogy.

      A liquid can be acidic or alkaline.

      A liquid can be solid or liquid.

      When a liquid is solid we never discuss its properties as a liquid and vice versa.  The same should also be true when discussing pH.  

1376. Bob Loblaw at 12:54 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      ...and let's consider that acidic and basic are opposites, and "more acidic, less basic" or "more basic, less acidic" are interchangeable.

      Just like "London is north of Paris", and "Paris is south of London" mean exactly the same thing.

      It seems that all you have is word games.

1377. Gordon at 12:02 PM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Bob, Rob,

      Lets call Acidic South and Basic North - using the logic of moving from pH 9 to 8 described as becoming more acidic (i.e moving South) then which direction are you travelling if the moves from pH 4 to 5 which is described as becoming less acidic ?  It has to be less South correct ?

1378. Rob Honeycutt at 11:48 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon, perhaps you'll remember from your chemistry class that "pH" means, essentially, "the power of hydrogen." Right?

      The link you reference is Forbes, hardly a scientific journal by any stretch of the imagination, and one which is more prone to publishing politically motivated opinion articles. And that's exactly what you're reading there.

      No one has ever claimed the oceans are acidic, or have become acidic. No one has ever claimed anything other than the oceans are "acidifying," meaning exactly what it says. 

      You can literally be at a pH of 14, move a solution to a pH of 13, and that would acidification.

      The only possible other word one could use would be "debasification" but good luck finding that in any scientific research. Plus, that would clearly not describe the underlying process that's occurring.

      Bob's point, which you're avoiding, is appropriate. When traveling from NYC to Atlanta no one claims they're going "less north."

1379. michael sweet at 11:47 AM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      Duran3d:

      As has been pointed out, a consensus is a supermajority of those consulted.  For IPCC reports they usually state what the consensus is for the least amount of harm from the discussed issue.   For example, the IPCC sea level rise projections are set at what a consensus thinks are the minimum rise expected.  That means that a large majority of scientists who study sea level rise think sea level rise will be greater than the IPCC consensus.  Trying to minimize something that has already been minimized is not a consistant argument.

      Claiming that it must be a unanimous consensus will not get you any traction here at Skeptical Science.

1380. Bob Loblaw at 11:41 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon @ 9:

      Let me introduce you to the equator, and the concept of north latitude and south latitude. It appears that this geographical concept is one that you are unfamiliar with.

      London is at 52N, Paris is at 49N.

      By the logic you present in #1, you cannot go south from London to Paris.

      And yes, it is perfectly reasonable to say that Paris is not as far north as London.

1381. Bob Loblaw at 11:35 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      If you actually read the Comments Policy, you would also see that "moderation complaints are always off topic and will be deleted".

      In other words, you don't get to disagree with the Comments Policy, Following it is not optional.

      Now, if you are saying you disagree that going from London to Paris is "going south", then you really need to make your comments more specific. Being specific helps honest discussion. Being vague and evasive does not.

1382. Gordon at 11:26 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Bob @3, if you apply the logic that I was presented with @1 then by traveling from Sydney to Singapore you would going less South as you can never travel North !

1383. Gordon at 11:18 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Bob, there is a time when one has to agree to disagree.

1384. Eclectic at 11:07 AM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      Duran3d @75  ~ the short version is that Rob Honeycutt is correct.  The long version is that Rob Honeycutt is still correct.  [See also: Bob Loblaw @77 ]

      In derivation, the word consensus has a (narrow) range of meanings . . . but the meaning which you wish to use is nowadays  an extreme outlier (used by hardly anyone).  Over decades, the meaning of a word can gradually drift in one direction ~ and the drift does occur by consensus   ;-)

      Consensus does not mean merely a majority, or even a supermajority [indeed some sources claim "over 75%"  agreement is a consensus ~ but that is far too weak for expressing consensus  among scientists].   And some people try to gild the lily by going all mathematical:  e.g. in year 2010 the consensus among scientists was >97% about the human cause of modern Global Warming . . . a figure which has now risen to >99% agreement (at time of writing).    # But that sort of thing is unnecessary, because the overall evidence (of AGW) is so overwhelming, that it is a justifiable short-hand to use the simple word consensus.

      Duran3d , you may be pleased to hear that one of the range of meanings of consensus  used by the Ancient Romans . . . included a situation involving "plotting together".   That fact could be joyous news to current climate-science-denying contrarians & Conspiracy Theorists !   Though I think most of that group are not really interested in meanings or facts.

      As an aside ~ the word consensus  is attacked by one of the (current)  U.S. Presidential candidates [RFK.Jr]  who uses his lawyerly skills to advocate the Anti-vaxxer cause.  But coming from him, it is all just a torrent of words intended to convince the already-convinced intransigent Anti-vaxxers.  He continually demands "scientific evidence in controlled studies" while also continually ignoring the bleeding-obvious evidence which already exists as a huge mountain.  He is a true Denialist.

1385. Bob Loblaw at 11:02 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon:

      I see that (so far) you are evading the question about whether you are going south when you travel from London to Paris.

      If you read the "dogpiling" rule completely, note that "the moderator may designate one or two people from each side of the debate as the primary disputants". It applies to large numbers of people - usually arguing with one person. It most certainly does not apply when the number of opponents is small.

      As far as being evasive is concerned, please read the section on Sloganeering. It includes "Comments ... which contain no relevant counter argument or evidence from the peer reviewed literature constitutes trolling rather than genuine discussion." Completely ignoring counterarguments, and behaving as if they were never made, is not genuine discussion.

       

1386. Gordon at 10:28 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Bob, I've read the Comments Policy but I can't see anything about evasive behaviour ?  I did notice the offence of Dogpiling though !

1387. Gordon at 10:24 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Rob, Acid solutions are composed primarly of H+ ions.  Alkaline solutions are composed primarily of OH– ions.  Neutral solutions contain equal amounts of H+ and OH- ions. When I studied Chemistry (many years ago) we always described the pH of a solution based on its direction from Neutral - <pH7 more/less acidic >pH7 more/less basic.  

      Actually, after reading around it would seem that the term Ocean Acidification has more of a political connotation than a scientific one.

1388. Bob Loblaw at 10:12 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      By the way, Gordon. We're still waiting for you to provide a definition of "catastrophic" on this thread here.  Don't think we've forgotten about your previous evasive behaviour on other threads.

      Have you read the Comments Policy yet?

1389. Bob Loblaw at 09:57 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Oh, Gordon @1. Not that old canard.

      In heading from London to Paris, are you going south? Or "less north"? How on earth can you be going south if you are north of the equator?

       

1390. Bob Loblaw at 09:55 AM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      Well, duran3d (comment 75) and Rob Honeycutt (comment 76) disagree on the definition of "consensus". Perhaps a dictionary would help?

      https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/consensus

      consensus (countable and uncountable, plural consensuses or consensus)

      1. A process of decision-making that seeks widespread agreement among group members.
      2. General agreement among the members of a given group or community, each of which exercises some discretion in decision-making and follow-up action.

      Hmmm. Well, that's just one site. How about

      https://www.dictionary.com/browse/consensus

      noun,plural con·sen·sus·es.

      1. majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month.
      2. general agreement or concord; harmony.

      Hmmm. Looks like Rob is on the right track....

1391. Rob Honeycutt at 08:58 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      Gordon, a state of being frozen or liquid is determined by a "phase change." The pH of a solution doesn't go through a similar phase change. 

      When you add CO2 to H2O you get H2CO3, or carbonic acid, which further dissociates into H+ and HCO3-. Regardless of where your solution is on the pH scale, that process is called "acidification."

      The "H+" is the key since pH is a measure of free hydrogen ions in a solution.

      I think I have that right.

1392. Gordon at 08:04 AM on 5 July 2023
      At a glance - Ocean acidification: Global warming's evil twin
      

      When did the language of pH become focused on acidity ?  I posed the question to an AI ïf the pH of a solution changes from 9 to 8 what happens ? The answer was it becomes more acidic.  I rephrased the question to what happens when it changes from 4 to 5 and the answer was it becomes less acidic.  Shouldn't the current state determine the designation ?  How would you describe an ice cube in a freezer where the temperature has been adjusted from -20C to -2C ?  Would it be more liquid or less frozen ? 

1393. Rob Honeycutt at 06:32 AM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      duran3d @75...

      Incorrect. The definition of "consensus" is "a general agreement." Thus, there can obviously be levels of agreement or consensus.

1394. duran3d at 06:03 AM on 5 July 2023
      97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
      

      Wrong use of the word "consensus" all around. Consensus means agreement among all individuals. If 99 say yes and 1 says no, that is no consensus. That is called majority.

1395. One Planet Only Forever at 08:21 AM on 4 July 2023
      Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
      

      Correction of my comment @4,

      The CCPI evaluations are for 59 countries plus the EU - 60 listed evaluations.

1396. nigelj at 06:45 AM on 4 July 2023
      Gas stoves are even worse for our health than previously known, new study finds
      

      Moderator's comment @ 3

      "To simple keep making the same arguments, without responding to criticisms or correcting errors, borders on several aspects of the Comments Policy, such as excessive repetition and sloganeering."

      This is very good. Its very annoying when people don't reply to criticisms. Its not in the spirit of open debate and discussion. Its discourteous. 

      In my view websites are entitled to require people to respond to their critics, at least in situations like the above.  Nobodies opinions are being censored doing this.  If you dont like being required to actively  participate in discussions you dont have to use the website.

1397. One Planet Only Forever at 06:23 AM on 4 July 2023
      Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
      

      prove we are smart,

      Thanks for pointing to the "Climate Change Performance Index 2023".

      I appreciate your Australian Perspective.

      I live in Canada. Canada has performed poorer in the CCPI evaluations than Australia. That poorer performance happened in spite of Canada's 'centrist' leadership since 2015. The 'centrist PM' openly, and rather irresponsibly and unethically, declared that Canada would be foolish to not try to maximize the benefits obtained from extracting and exporting the massive oil sands resource.

      I am even more aware of the tragic result of populist nationalist/regionalist government captured by 'harmful pursuits of benefit'. I live in Alberta. Alberta (~10% of Canada's population) is the main reason that Canada's overall CCPI evaluation is so poor (likely similar to what would be experienced in Queensland, Australia).

      Tragically, it is likely that a threat of significant global trade penalties will be required to get responsible performance from Canada's leadership, especially from the leadership of Alberta. That will temporarily boost populist nationalist/regionalist political support. But it is probably better for harmful people to be angry about having their ability to be harmful limited than it is to compromise with them to let them be more harmful than they need to be.

      An observation regarding the CCPI rankings. The evaluation is only of 60 countries. The evaluators wisely 'locked-in' a minimum of 3 spots for the highest level of performance. None of the nations evaluated had overall performance in that top category. So the lowest rank nation is number 63 out of 60.

1398. One Planet Only Forever at 05:44 AM on 4 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      daveburton,

      Your observation does not change the conclusion that "..., we can stop using this conversation from 1988 as a reason to be skeptical about the human origins of global warming."

      But it raises interesting questions you may be able to answer.

      How much sea level rise at the West Side Highway would be 'locked-in (occur in the future)' by a 'locked-in' doubling of CO2 to 560 ppm?

      What would the expected high tide levels be relative to the elevation of the lowest point of the West Side Highway?

      And what flood levels and frequencies of flooding would likely be the result?

      Note that in May of 2017 portions of the West Side Highway were flooded due to heavy rain and an inability to drain the areas quick enough. The level of such flood events are higher if the water level that they drain into is higher.

      Also note that Hurricane Sandy (2012) also flooded many parts of New York.

1399. daveburton at 01:56 AM on 4 July 2023
      Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater
      

      It appears that Hansen added that "assuming CO2 doubled" caveat later. Many years later he claimed to recall that that's what he had said to Reiss back in 1988, but there doesn't seem to be any contemporaneous evidence of it.
      
      Moreover, his claim doesn't pass the smell test, not only because of the implausibility of remembering such details years later, but also because in 1988 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was less than 352 ppmv, and it was rising by only 1.63 ppmv or +0.476% per year. For the CO2 level to reach 570 ppmv by 2028 would have required a wildly accelerated average annual increase of ((570-352)/40) = 5.45 ppmv or +1.21% per year.
      
      The rate of CO2 level rise did accelerate, but only slightly. Over the last decade the atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased at an average rate of 2.45 ppmv or +0.603% per year.
      
      With only five years to go before 2028, the average sea-level at The Battery in Manhattan has risen by only about 6.7 inches (some of which is due to subsidence), and the "West Side Highway" (Henry Hudson Parkway) is still about ten feet above mean sea-level.

1400. prove we are smart at 14:59 PM on 3 July 2023
      Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
      

      Thanks for your reply One Planet Only Forever, My countries efforts so far? , "Australia has climbed just four places to rank 55th out of 63 in this year’s global Climate Change Performance Index 2023, launched at COP27 in Egypt, a slight improvement on last year’s where it came in dead last for climate policy. See here,  "www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/new-global-climate-ranking-sees-australia-go-from-dead-last-to-far-from-pass/  Admitantly, our dismal climate change response was from a right wing political party in power for nearly a decade. We elected a more centrist party last year and I suspect many countries will have the same slow motion response because of this, www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHB0vDhdM3c..

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