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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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太阳是全球变暖的主要原因?

科学论证...

在过去全球变暖的35年里,太阳呈示细微的变冷趋势。 太阳和气候正朝相反方向发展

怀疑论论点...

“在过去的几百年里,地球变得越来越暖,与此同时,黑子的数目不断增加。 数据显示,太阳活动影响全球气候,致使地球变暖.”

作为地球气候的主要能源提供者,太阳对气候有着极大的影响。对比过去1150年里太阳和气候的变动,研究发现气温的变化与太阳活动紧密相连 (Usoskin 2005). 。 然而,在1975年之后, 气温逐渐上升,太阳却没有显示任何明显的变化。 由此研究断定“过去30年里,太阳总发光量,太阳紫外线,以及宇宙射线通量没有显示任何变动,所以最近期的全球变暖必定由其他因素导致。"


事实上,一定数量的太阳活动测量显示自从1960年以来,太阳呈现细微的冷却现象,与此同时,全球气温却日渐上升。 在过去全球变暖的35年里,太阳呈示细微的变冷趋势。 太阳和气候正朝相反方向发展。一项太阳趋势研究显示太阳在最近几十年里提供冷却的影响 (Lockwood 2008)。

 

图 一:年度全球气温变化(细红线)与11年平均气温变化值 (深红线)。气温值由NASA GISS提供。 年度太阳发光总量(细蓝线)与11年平均发光量变化值(深蓝线)。 1880年至1978年太阳发光总量由Solanki提供。 1979年至2009年太阳发光总量由PMOD提供。

其他有关太阳对气候影响的研究

许多不同的研究一致印证太阳对20世纪早期全球变暖有正面的影响,然而,太阳对过去几十年的全球变暖几乎没有任何(甚至负面)影响:
* Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming" “我们推断由太阳活动引致的近期地球表面气温上升最大值占了全球变暖的14%。"

* Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980." “我们的研究显示,二十世纪太阳引致了 7 ± 1% 的 全球变暖,可是自1980年后,太阳对全球变暖几乎没有任何影响。"

* Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is ?1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of ?0.7 to ?1.9%." 自从1987年以来, 由太阳变动所引致的气温变动逐渐变小下调,最精算估计是1.3%,置信水平 2 使得不确定范围在0.7 到 1.9%。“

* Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings." “过去20年太阳影响力逐渐减小,地球表面气温逐渐上升, 此结论合理解释气候的恒定对太阳影响力变化的影响。 “

* Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century." “虽然太阳和火山的效应对过去1000年气候缓慢变化有着直接的影响, 但是温室气体是过去50年气候变化的主要原因。"
 
* Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified." “1985年以后的全球平均气温急速上升,此变化与太阳活动没有直接联系.“

* Foukal 2006 concludes "The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years." “自1978年以来太空船所搜集的太阳活动变化数据不足解释过去30年全球气温急遽上升。

* Scafetta 2006 says "since 1975 global warming has occurred much faster than could be reasonably expected from the sun alone." “自从1975年以来,全球变暖急遽上升, 其发展速度,仅仅太阳活动不足以解释."

* Usoskin 2005 conclude "during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source." “过去三十年太阳总发光量,太阳紫外线总量和宇宙射线变量并没有显示任何明显的趋势,由此可断定近期的全球变暖并由其他因素导致."

* Solanki 2004 reconstructs 11,400 years of sunspot numbers using radiocarbon concentrations, finding "solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades". Solanki 利用发射性碳含量重造太阳黑子过去11400年的数量,发现太阳活动不足以解释过去三十年的全球变暖 。"

* Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects." “观察数据显示,太阳对全球气温有着年代性,世纪性,以及千年性的影响,但是放射性量度,能量平衡模型以及大气环流模型一致显示太阳活动不足以解释20世 纪下半段的全球变暖。"

* Stott 2003 increased climate model sensitivity to solar forcing and still found "most warming over the last 50 yr is likely to have been caused by increases in greenhouse gases." “经过增加气候模型对太阳量度的敏感度之后,研究断定过去50年大部分的全球变暖大多由温室气体导致."

* Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970". “自1970年以来,太阳只导致不到30%的全球变暖."

* Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970". “自1970年以来,太阳与气候之间的关系只能解释小部份的全球变暖。"

* Waple 1999 finds "little evidence to suggest that changes in irradiance are having a large impact on the current warming trend." “研究发现,极少量证据显示发光量变化对近期的全球变暖有重要影响."

* Frolich 1998 concludes "solar radiative output trends contributed little of the 0.2°C increase in the global mean surface temperature in the past decade" “过去十年的地球表面平均气温值上升0.2摄氏度,太阳发光产量趋势并不是主要原因。"
 

Translation by lichen, . View original English version.



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