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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45, 2020

Posted on 11 November 2020 by doug_bostrom

Rocks as data loggers

Improving our confidence with quantifying paleoclimate is important to our understanding of how Earth's systems have responded to past climate change, and for refinement of climate models.

Reconstructing paleoclimate is accomplished via proxy indicators of various climatic features. Pollen, tree rings, varves and other methods have been successfully employed for this purpose. Each approach is somewhat limited in scope of coverage. 

Building on other recent work, a team led by Rabiul Biswas have revived and claim to have significantly extended a largely dormant but fundamentally promising technique. Thermoluminescence of the common mineral feldspar tantalizes with paleoclimatic rewards— if a method can be developed to make it a continuous measure of past temperature. Biswas et al show how that may be done. If successfully applied on a broad scale, this new data source will fill in some substantial gaps in our record of paleoclimate.  With each current particular recording mechanism working only for particular and individually relatively narrow contexts, a temperature proxy with a significantly broadened range would be very helpful indeed. Feldspar is a widely distributed mineral on Earth's surface and easily sampled, so this is a potentially high impact advancement. 

From the abstract:

Thermoluminescence (TL) of feldspar is investigated for its potential to extract temperature histories experienced by rocks exposed at Earth's surface. TL signals from feldspar observed in the laboratory arise from the release of trapped electrons from a continuous distribution of trapping energies that have a range of thermal stabilities. The distribution of trapping energies, or thermal stabilities, is such that the lifetime of trapped electrons at room temperature ranges from less than a year to several billion years. Shorter lifetimes are associated with low-temperature TL signals, or peaks, and longer lifetimes are associated with high temperature TL signals. Here we show that trapping energies associated with shorter lifetimes, or lower-temperature TL signals (i.e. between 200 and 250 C), are sensitive to temperature fluctuations occurring at Earth's surface over geological timescales. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to reconstruct past surface temperature histories in terrestrial settings by exploiting the continuous distribution of trapping energies. 

Open access and free to read, with a citation lineage including footprints on the moon: Surface paleothermometry using low-temperature thermoluminescence of feldspar

113 Articles

Observations of global warming & effects

Evidence of climate-driven changes on atmospheric, hydrological, and oceanographic variables along the Chilean coastal zone
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02805-3 (preprint)

Recent Increase in Tropical Cyclone Weakening Rates Over the Western North Pacific
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090337

Causes of the widespread 2019 – 2020 Australian bushfire season
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001671

Increasing glacial lake outburst flood hazard in response to surge glaciers in the Karakoram
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103432

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming, effects

Local anomalies in the column‐averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide across the globe during the first months of the coronavirus recession
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090244

Do surface temperature indices reflect centennial‐timescale trends in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength?
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090888

An Abrupt Aging of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Large Arctic Rivers
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088823

Historical Trends of Seasonal Greenland Blocking Under Different Blocking Metrics
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6923

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects MSWE

Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001778

Aerosol forcing masks and delays the formation of the North‐Atlantic warming hole by three decades
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090778

Potential precipitation predictability decreases under future warming
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090798

Impact of climate change on surface stirring and transport in the Mediterranean Sea
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089941

The response of stratospheric water vapor to climate change driven by different forcing agents
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-13267-2020

Increasing risk of another Cape Town “Day Zero” drought in the 21st century
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009144117

Impact of Antarctic Meltwater Forcing on East Asian Climate Under Greenhouse Warming
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10502935.1

Response of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to extreme Southern Annular Mode conditions
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503406.1

Centennial Changes in the Indonesian Throughflow Connected to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: The Ocean's Transient Conveyor Belt
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090615

Large atmospheric waves will get stronger while small waves will get weaker by the end of the 21st century
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090441

Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001736

Projected Changes in Compound Flood Hazard from Riverine and Coastal Floods in Northwestern Europe
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001752

Increase in population exposure due to dry and wet extremes in India under a warming climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001731

Future risks of unprecedented compound heat waves over three vast urban agglomerations in China
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001716

Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States

Simulations of Atmospheric Rivers, Their Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model

Potential future changes in wildfire weather and behavior around 11 Canadian cities
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100735

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Trans-basin Atlantic-Pacific connections further weakened by common model Pacific mean SST biases
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19338-z

Comparison of two model calibration approaches and their influence on future projections under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02902-3

Evaluation of a new snow albedo scheme for the Greenland ice sheet in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2)
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020

Representative surface snow density on the East Antarctic Plateau
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3663-2020

The Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in Three Generations of Global Climate Models and Glider Observations
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016609

A new ensemble‐based approach to correct the systematic ocean temperature bias of CAS‐ESM‐C to improve its simulation and data assimilation abilities
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016406

Variations in the Frequency of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in CMIP5 and CMIP6 and Possible Causes
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0104.1

Timescale‐dependent AMOC‐AMO relationship in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6926

Cryosphere & climate change

Greenland Ice Sheet Elevation Change: Direct Observation of Process and Attribution at Summit
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088864

Review article: Geothermal heat flow in Antarctica: current and future directions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3843-2020

Representative surface snow density on the East Antarctic Plateau
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3663-2020

Attenuated interannual variability of austral winter Antarctic sea ice over recent decades
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090590

SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10502537.2

Bathymetric influences on Antarctic ice‐shelf melt rates
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016370

Paleoclimate

Enhanced fish production during a period of extreme global warmth
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19462-w

Surface paleothermometry using low-temperature thermoluminescence of feldspar
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2075-2020 (preprint)

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020

A statistical approach to the phasing of atmospheric reorganization and sea ice retreat at the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger events under rigorous treatment of uncertainties
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-136 (preprint)

Quantifying structural uncertainty in paleoclimate data assimilation with an application to the Last Millennium
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090485

Biology & global warming

Reduced thermal tolerance in a coral carrying CRISPR-induced mutations in the gene for a heat-shock transcription factor
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920779117

Selection on phenotypic plasticity favors thermal canalization
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012454117

Climate change facilitates a parasite’s host exploitation via temperature‐mediated immunometabolic processes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15402

Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.31.929380

Climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology at Bracken Cave (USA)
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15433

Altered microbial structure and function after thermokarst formation
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15438

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15390

Mangrove diversity loss under sea-level rise triggered by bio-morphodynamic feedbacks and anthropogenic pressures
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc122

Networks of epiphytic lichens and host trees along elevation gradients: climate change implications in mountain ranges
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13538

Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous-dominated ecosystems
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04787-6

Long‐term empirical evidence, early warning signals, and multiple drivers of regime shifts in a lake ecosystem
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13544

Plant invasion impacts on fungal community structure and function depend on soil warming and nitrogen enrichment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04797-4

Climate change drives spatial mismatch and threatens the biotic interactions of the Brazil nut
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13200

Some like it hotter: trematode transmission under changing temperature conditions
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04800-y

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Uncertainties in the EDGAR emission inventory of greenhouse gases
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1102 (preprint)

Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020

On the role of trend and variability in the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the global methane budget
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-308

Quantifying sources of Brazil's CH4 emissions between 2010 and 2018 from satellite data
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-438-rc2

Carbon storage in phosphorus limited grasslands may decline in response to elevated nitrogen deposition: a long-term field manipulation and modelling study
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-392 (preprint)

Large and increasing methane emissions from Eastern Amazonia derived from satellite data, 2010–2018
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1136 (preprint)

Variability of North Atlantic CO2 fluxes for the 2000–2017 period (preprint)

Carbon dioxide emissions during the 2018 Kilauea volcano eruption estimated using OCO‐2 satellite retrievals
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090507

Local anomalies in the column‐averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide across the globe during the first months of the coronavirus recession
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090244

Observed impacts of COVID‐19 on urban CO2 emissions

Carbon dioxide and methane flux in a dynamic Arctic tundra landscape: Decadal‐scale impacts of ice‐wedge degradation and stabilization
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089894

The status and stability of permafrost carbon on the Tibetan Plateau
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103433

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15390

Altered microbial structure and function after thermokarst formation
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15438

Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long‐term bare‐fallow soils
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15441

Reduced magnitude and shifted seasonality of CO2 sink by experimental warming in a coastal wetland

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Financial precautions, carbon dioxide leakage, and the European Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage (CCS)
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02904-1

Delayed impact of natural climate solutions
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15413

Coupled CO2 ‐well‐reservoir simulation using a partitioned approach: effect of reservoir properties on well dynamics
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2035

Geoengineering climate

Tampering with Nature: A Systematic Review
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13619

Potentials and critiques of building a Southeast Asian interdisciplinary knowledge community on critical geoengineering studies
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02921-0

Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-965 (preprint)

Climate change communications & cognition

Communicating the hidden: toward a framework for drought risk communication in maritime climates
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02906-z

Extreme weather and climate opinion: evidence from Australia
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02900-5

Does the use of climate information contribute to climate change adaptation? Evidence from Ghana
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1844612

Improving the use of calibrated language in U.S. climate assessments
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001817

A Sea Change for Climate Refugees in the South Pacific: How Social Media – Not Journalism – Tells Their Real Story
DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1821742

Agronomy & climate change

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 {degrees}C warmer climate

Small irrigation users’ perceptions of environmental change, impacts, and response in Nepal
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1836468

Temperature‐driven harvest decisions amplify U.S. winter wheat loss under climate warming
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15427

Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb909

Carbon emission, sequestration, credit and economics of wheat under poplar based agroforestry system
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2020.1840875

Crop residue management to reduce GHG emissions and weed infestation in Central India through mechanized farm operations
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2020.1835387

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Endogenizing the Cap in a Cap-and-Trade System: Assessing the Agreement on EU ETS Phase 4
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00518-w

Effects of coordinating support policy changes on renewable power investor choices in Europe
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111993

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Heat stress risk and vulnerability under climate change in Durban metropolitan, South Africa—identifying urban planning priorities for adaptation
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02908-x

U.S. states initiation of energy efficiency policies in the era of climate change: Throwing a searchlight on the influence of political partisanship
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.021

Climate Change Legislations and Environmental Degradation
DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00520-2

Heatwaves: An invisible risk in UK policy and research
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.10.021

Consumers or users? The impact of user learning about smart hybrid heat pumps on policy trajectories for heat decarbonisation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.24886/blr.2018.9.32.3.317

Uncovering impact factors of carbon emissions from transportation sector: evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta Area
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-020-09934-1

Evaluating a light duty vehicle fleet against climate change mitigation targets under different scenarios up to 2050 on a national level
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111942

Measuring governing capacity for the energy transition of Dutch municipalities
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112002

Climate change adaptation

Assessing the past and adapting to future floods: a hydro-social analysis
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02909-w

Identifying decision-relevant uncertainties for dynamic adaptive forest management under climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02905-0

Indigenous knowledge on climate change adaptation: a global evidence map of academic literature
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb330

Climate change impacts on human health

Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.31.929380

Are we ignoring a black elephant in the Anthropocene? Climate change and global pandemic as the crisis in health and equality
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-020-00879-7

Climate change impacts on human culture

Storylines for decision-making: climate and food security in Namibia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1808438

Climate change risk to global port operations
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Wood Pole Repair Using FRP Considering the Impact of Climate Change on Decay and Hurricane Risk
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.10.001

Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios
DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2020.10.007

Other

RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017124117

Reply to Hausfather and Peters: RCP8.5 is neither problematic nor misleading [reply to above item]

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013297117

Global ocean mass change from GRACE and GRACE Follow‐On and altimeter and Argo measurements
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090656

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02907-y

 


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