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Comments 51901 to 51950:
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DOOMDAYS at 00:58 AM on 2 November 2012Global Dimming in the Hottest Decade
@Rob Painting Another Question : Why in 1975 when The CLean Air Act. is fully implemented and the aerosols stall and becoming to fall ,the resultant brightening of N.H is aparently and inmediately reflected in the temperature graph of N.H in aprox. 1975??? Why ENSO No mask the warming here for a short time...??? sorry for so many questions and thanks -
Lambda 3.0 at 00:55 AM on 2 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Question about the Atlantic sea surface temperatures: The impact of anthropogenic warming on Earth's ocean surface temperatures overall is measured at 0.6C. The surface temperature off the North American coast is measured at 3C. Is there any work that can tease out the contribution of climate change on the coastal SSTs? My intuition tells me that it may not simply be that natural variation is responsible for 2.4C (additive). Would not the global forcing be like a gain, a multiplicative effect on natural variation? -
Lambda 3.0 at 00:47 AM on 2 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Today's Today Show included a segment where Harry Smith discusses the impact of climate change on hurricane Sandy: MSNBC Today Show Nov 1 2012 circa 10:30 EDT Smith concludes "something's going on." -
John Hartz at 00:18 AM on 2 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
At least 56 people in the United States and one in Canada died during the storm, raising Sandy's overall death toll to 124 after earlier claiming 67 lives in the Caribbean. Source: Superstorm Sandy's human toll mounts; at least 56 killed in U.S. by Chelsea J. Carter, CNN, Nov 1, 2012 -
vrooomie at 00:16 AM on 2 November 2012Climate of Doubt and Escalator Updates
As I demonstrated, increasing O2 partial pressure in a combustion engine results in very little improvement in EROI terms. And Dikran's correct: A 100% O2 atmosphere is lethal: ref: Apollo 1. Also, let me me state this a little more forcefully: NO combustion engine, powerplant, or anything else that operated by burning a/some fuel would operate AT ALL with pure O2: it is non-combustible, by itself. There ARE no magical engine designs that will work on O2, irrespective of how much money and fanciful hopes are thrown at them. -
vrooomie at 23:51 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale@82, I offer an apology, such as is necessary, for misidentifying you with WUWT: Your name, and modus operandi, appear there quite a lot, and I *never* visit Jo Nova--too fact-free for my tastes. However, your own admission that Jo Nova is your home site, as opposed to WUWT, stands on its own. I also happen to know a fair bit about the "Aussie psyche," having been married to an Aussie, and having a number of Aussie friends; we are much alike, Americans and Aussies, in calling spades spades. Fair enough...now, back to the science. It is evident by your unwillingness to address *directly* Dikran's reasonable questions, viz. IPCC's data and interpretation about the intensity of large storms, that it's an uncomforatable place to be: We've all been there, with cherished and tightly-held *beliefs*. However, as shown by Dikran et al, your stance is not correct. As gws stated, you need not agree with the interpretation of the data, but please let me remind you...data doesn't lie. I will give you credit inasmuch as far as the clearly identified "skeptics" who come to SkS to challenge the science--and challenging science is a good thing, assuming one doesn't use one's own facts and data to do so--that you sometimes almost seem willing to accede that the data is what it is. To that end, I am still waiting to see a clear answer to Dikran's question.Moderator Response:[DB] Actually, in a comment at 07:07 AM on 31 August 2012, Dale said:
"I read both WUWT and SkS"
With his recent conduct, Dale has decided to recuse himself from further participation in this venue.
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Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 23:45 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Should have said Yasi and Katrina were smaller (not small) in diameter compared to Irene and especially Sandy. Both Yasi and Katrina were still huge cyclones. -
Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 23:43 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Click here for a larger version of the graphic shown below, which also gives a quantitative comparison of the size and force of Sandy, Yasi, Katrina and Irene. Yasi and Katrina were fierce in wind strength but small in diameter. Sandy is enormous. We do seem to have had more than our share in the past few years, haven't we.
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Composer99 at 23:32 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Climate science contrarians have often been criticized for conflating climate and weather, and try to turn the criticism about when climate science discusses the impact of climate on weather. I recall seeing on the blog Deltoid a commenter waving away natural disasters with "it's just weather, innit?" as if to dispel the notion of the two being related. Of course, it's not really the conflation of climate and weather that's the problem, it's the backwards attribution. When cold weather or snow was a "disproof" of climate change, contrarians were effectively claiming weather drives climate. But the reality is the opposite: climate drives weather. -
cRR Kampen at 22:54 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
"Changing Weather Patterns Resulting from Arctic Warming" Yes. Look at the blocking high in forbidden territory, that is over de Cold Wall between Newfoundland and Greenland. The persistence of this pattern is unique. Normally highs tend to exist there for maybe a day - in transit as an ending block the high moving into the Canadian Arctic (viz aroung 1 November 1985) or, more ordinary, as a transiting high moving to the Azores region. The present blocking is highly, highly anomolous. And it has everything to do with Sandy's dramatic impact. -
Kevin C at 21:53 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Jeff Masters on the storm track, blocking ridges and NAO. He includes the same quote from Dr Francis. -
ajki at 21:43 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
"Thank goodness it wasn't a serious storm." The goodness might answer: "My pleasure. I'll do much better next time." -
CBDunkerson at 21:28 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Isn't it fascinating how Sandy not only wasn't a major storm... but even if it was then it had nothing to do with global warming? This kind of 'multiple denial' is usually an excellent predictor of a fact resistant personality. -
gws at 21:19 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale, are you listening? "[...] Sandy being influenced by climate change, which I called out since there is no observational evidence to support such a claim. Hmmh, maybe you could tell your definition of "influenced" then, as there are several lines of evidence, summarized in the newest post, that describe said influence. Always good to broaden your mind. You don't have to aggree on how to interpret the evidence, but you should not deny it either. "[...] the amount of times AR4 has been proven incorrect since it was published makes anything they claim suspect" And if you want to be taken seriously, may I suggest that being conspiratorial about the IPCC this way is trolling, at best. Of course the IPCC AR4 was "wrong" about some things (e.g. Arctic sea ice decline) and will be shown wrong about other things in the future, such is the nature of science. In ten years, we may well have the understanding and scientific tools to show that Sandy was indeed "caused" by a warmer climate relative to 50 years earlier. This site lists and describes what we know now, for the benefit of those who care to listen. And it shows plainly that you are wrong. -
Dikran Marsupial at 21:13 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale, I haven't moved the goal posts. It was you that introduced papers on the lack of a trend in the frequency of storms. I am asking you in what way this contradicts mainstream scientific opinion on, given that the IPCC reports say that there is no clear trend. It seems to me that you are "calling out climate science" while not actually being aware of what climate science actually says, which frankly is not very reasonable behaviour on your part. So, tell me: (i) Exactly how does the lack of a trend in storm frequency contradict mainstream scientific opinion. (ii) Why are you avoiding discussing trends in storm intensity? So far you have provided no evidence that contradicts the mainstream view on that matter. -
Brian Purdue at 21:11 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Sorry Dale, I remember reading that - pays to check. "Why don't YOU tell me what the IPCC claims then? Obviously me two dum two wrok it out, eh?" Stop trying to dodge Dikran’s question by being smart. You’re making it obvious by using the denier’s well-worn tactic of attacking the IPCC. -
CBDunkerson at 20:47 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Today the 'not even a small hurricane' named Sandy continues to kill people here in New Jersey. More than 80% remain without electricity. Fires still burn in half a dozen cities around the area. Gasoline for automobiles and generators is nearly gone as the ports and pipelines are still recovering from the storm and many local stations that have gasoline have no electricity to pump it. Temperatures are set to plunge below freezing for the next week, which will cause pipes to burst and leave many without water. Thank goodness it wasn't a serious storm. -
Dale at 20:27 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Just noticed the mod has commented on my post @36, and changed it recently. Stupid how it doesn't notify you when that happens, specially when you're on another page. Mod: "Add in the warmest 17 years in the instrumental record are all the most recent 17 years" And the last 17 years have also been my tallest. I also haven't grown in those last 17 years either.Moderator Response: (Rob P) 93% of global warming has gone into the oceans over the last 5 decades. See Levitus (2012) & Nuccitelli (2012). And note this graph from Nuccitelli (2012):
I'm sure you are aware of this given that you commented on this SkS thread when Nuccitelli (2012) was accepted for publication.
These facts make clear that your comment was simply the repetition of a contrarian myth, and one you know well to be erroneous. As such, this constitutes sloganeering, your third such breach despite being warned.
Revocation of posting rights is sure to follow.
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ranyl at 20:06 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
"Sandy's barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy's 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88' at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2' water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821." Jeff Masters. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2012&m 1624 seems like 400 years ago. Was also the biggest storm size area in Atlantic since they've been measured. Fairly extreme event to break so many records, lets hope it is a unique event, for if another Hurricane even came close that would be mighty unual, but still possible under natural variation. But this if this Hurricane is an indication of what Hurricanes are going to be more like (wetter, large but lower wind speed as so big) with warmer oceans and a changing climate, then the North East of American needs to start adaptating to the possibility of this being a more regular event. -
Dikran Marsupial at 19:02 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale, I'm surprised you can't see the point, as it was you that pointed out that there is no trend in the number of storms, even though this is just what mainstream science says, as embodied by the IPCC reports. So exactly what point did you think you were making by blustering on about trends in the number of storms, rather than in their intensity? -
Dale at 18:46 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dikran: Where are you going with this? Seems pointless. 3.8.3 - "definitive results are not available." Yes some basins trended upwards and some trended downwards. But as noted the trends were opposing in the Pacific and Atlantic and correlated strongly to the ENSO index (when one went up, the other went down). Since ENSO was generally positive from the 1970's till about 2000, rising trend in the Pacific and dropping trend in Atlantic. Since ENSO switched early 2000's to negative, we've seen those trends swap. But overall, no statistically relevant trend either way globally. -
adelady at 18:43 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
I read this somewhere, maybe even here. Climate change doesn't cause extreme weather, it makes extreme weather more extreme. Personally, I think that really applies to storms and maybe heatwaves. When it comes to floods, the extra moisture in the atmosphere is enough in many cases (I'd speculate Brisbane/Queensland as a candidate) to tip the event over from manageable/not a flood at all to significant or catastrophic - entirely due to the warmed atmosphere. -
Dikran Marsupial at 18:40 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Eric (skeptic) are the trends in either of your plots statistically significant? BTW are we now in agreement about the "loading of the die" analogy? -
gws at 17:38 PM on 1 November 2012The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
jyushchyshyn Indeed, Germany "does need conventional power" now. Not disputed. Equally obvious is that coal must be phased out eventually. As energy production is not everything that drives a society, phasing out something that used to provide a large section of the population with work is no simple task. So a timeline for phase-out makes a lot of sense, especially if you stick to it. It is much more costly changing plans all the time, so I consider it unlikely that Germany will change plans again and bet big on the nuclear power road. It is like a ship: Speeding up is more easily accomplished than turning around ... aka installing decentralized renewables with a large labor compoenent is quicker and societally more accepted than large central power production that takes a long time to plan and build, and a smaller workforce to operate. -
Dikran Marsupial at 17:12 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale O.K. you found a paragraph about future projectsions, so what do the IPCC say about the observed historical trend? To make it easier for you, do they claim there has been a clear trend in the number of tropical or mid-lattitlude storms? -
Paul Magnus at 14:43 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy: Neither weather nor tide nor sea level can be legislated
vrooomie i find your response strange as a simple google produces a host of listings of reputable ilk. And also quite a few scholarly links. I think you should put the effort in to a bit of research before shooting your posts off. There is also this book published quite recently with lots of references and a good read too as Bill discusses what we can look forward to from this aspect of GW.... Waking the Giant, http://www.amazon.com/Waking-Giant-Changing-Earthquakes-Volcanoes/dp/0199592268 -
Bert from Eltham at 14:10 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Maybe this will put it all into some perspective. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-30/infographic-how-hurricane-sandy-compares-irene-katrina-yasi/4341760 Which one of these storms would you invite to your party? Bert -
Alpinist at 12:52 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Thanks Dana, this is a nice summary. It reminds of something Aaron Lewis posted a bit ago at Tamino's site: The composition of the atmosphere affects the weather. All of the weather, all the time. We have changed the composition of the atmosphere. We are affecting the weather, all of the weather, all the time. -
P.T. Goodman at 12:52 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Excellent article. Some of it puts into focus what I've been trying to tell a denier acquaintance. Mainly that the total energy of a storm says more than just wind speed, so storm size matters. But there is plenty of other information here. In far Western New York State, we got high winds and lots of rain, but not the type of destruction that the coastal regions received. -
Bob Lacatena at 12:39 PM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
ranyl,1:300 year event at least?
Less, if you're talking pre-1950. Post-2010? I shudder to think, but we'll sadly find out. Well-known Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times." -
Jim Eager at 12:02 PM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale wrote: All we hear is "this may happen in this range". It's all probabilities on assumptions on how things may work in a hypothetical world. Science is fact, not mumbo-jumbo. With that you demonstrate that you don't even understand what science is. -
ranyl at 11:37 AM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
Thanks Dana. Huge diameter storm ~1000miles. All the ocean to turn, and it was highly wind sheared on the approach to New Jersey, incredible how far it maintained hurricanes winds and a very low pressure, some of that accumulated deep water heat coming to the surface?? As everyone knows global warming didn't cause Sandy and the high lunar tide was very unfortuneate, but global warming as you said does seems to have been a helping hand in the impact path she took and does seem to have amplified her magnitude. For the end of October she was an unprecented storm in a long record of severe storms. 1:300 year event at least? Following the USA drought and several other record rainfall events this year. Global warming does seem to happening and some and in ways only now being fully recognised. The diagnosis is serious extremes and new weather patterns. And there is still another 0.6C warming to come, if not more considering the total lack of effective global action and the permafrost melting situation. What is the next El Nino year going to bring!!!? All natural factors have been tending to cooling recently, but we now entering a potential El nino period with a peak of sunspots combination next year. Intersting times. ?? -
Albatross at 11:21 AM on 1 November 2012Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Connection
That quote from Roberts is very appropriate and accurate. In a couple of sentences it captures what many of us have being struggling to articulate clearly to the public. Hopefully he doesn't mind people borrowing it (with credit of course). The blog post titled "Hurricane Sandy and the Climate Hens" by The Way Things Break is also worth a read. -
Eric (skeptic) at 10:36 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Some people are correctly attributing sea level and some Gulf Stream warming to global warming and from those factors to a stronger hurricane Sandy. However, Arctic heat release (presumably from refreezing) causing jet stream wobbling does not fit into that same clear cut category. I am not ready to accept causation because there are too many other factors. I did however find some support for it. I plotted NAO for April and October for the period of Arctic ice decline (79-present) although October 2012 is missing from the plot, it is negative, probably about -1.25. April seemed like a good pick due to close to maximum ice with the start of melting causing cooling:
Whereas the month of October with heat release from refreezing shows a downward trend in NAO
Data came from CPC at NOAA -
Dale at 10:04 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dikran: I don't see the point of answering the question, but in the interest of humoring the point: "Results from embedded high-resolution models and global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km, project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably, where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones." -
scaddenp at 09:59 AM on 1 November 2012Climate of Doubt and Escalator Updates
Dikran - the real question is what would generator look like if they had 100% oxygen intake. sincam - it is not clear at all to me how a boiler running on 100% O2 would be significantly more efficient. It's not like a coal plant has lot a lot of energy in CO emissions or that they could get the steam much hotter. -
scaddenp at 09:42 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Eric, the significance of Grinsted, is that other measures of whether storm-intensity correlated with warmer temperatures are plagued by observational bias. Grinsted's tidal gauge method would indicate the temperature does indeed load the dice. -
Brian Purdue at 09:02 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale, I am an Australian too and I have been fighting global warming ignorance amongst my countrymen for years – with some success. We may call a spade a spade but our character has nothing to do with scientific reality. Your character is misplaced in this case. -
Dikran Marsupial at 08:59 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale, if you want to "call climate science out", then it is incumbent on you to at least demonstrate that you actually know what climate science actually says. So how about answering the question? -
Dale at 08:25 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
vrooomie @ 79: I find it funny how you believe WUWT to be my "home turf". I'm Australian, my "home turf" (if you want to call it that) is Jo Nova. ;) WUWT, like SkS, is a minor interest site to me, not a daily visit. michael @ 75: I was not being deliberately offensive. I was calling climate science out. All we hear is "this may happen in this range". It's all probabilities on assumptions on how things may work in a hypothetical world. Science is fact, not mumbo-jumbo. Sorry if that offends you, probably the Australian way of calling a spade a spade coming out in me. -
ranyl at 08:04 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
It seems that we can all see what we want as the truth when we don't want to see the actual truth. If somone doesn't want to see the truth then nothing anyone else says will make them see it, for the only way to see the truth is to look, and firstly to want to look, without any self orientated motivations or preconceptions. However giving the false truths credence in agruement lets them spread to a wider audience and thus challenging every denial claim (when most are clearly irrational now) just gives them unwanted air time, unwarranted credence, creates unecessary doubt and is distracting away from the real issues as is the intent of those in denial. At present there is already a real and very alarming change in the weather arround the world, (everywhere extremes are already the norms) and this is just the start, just the start! Therefore maybe instead of trying to convince someone in denial of their denial state of mind, to get them out of it somehow (which is an impossible task), we should be discussing more urgent things? Like how on earth is NYC going to adapt its infra-strcutre for future norms and extremes, sea level rise and water security whilst also not having the luxury of any fossil fuels? For the truth of the current situation is that burning any more fossil fuels than essential for adaptation and transformation is really just too dangerous. -
Dikran Marsupial at 07:53 AM on 1 November 2012Climate of Doubt and Escalator Updates
sincam wrote: "What would they look like on a planet that had a 100% O2 atmosphere?" Non-existent I should think. In a 100% O2 atmosphere more or less everything carbon-based would be so flamable that we wouldn't have evolved enough to make them. -
sincam at 07:48 AM on 1 November 2012Climate of Doubt and Escalator Updates
Re: "pure" O2 in an engine, I'll stand by my statement: There is *NO* internal combustion engine that will run on pure O2, nor benefit appreciably by the use of O2. I agree. It would take a new design, not a jury rig. Check patents 8176884, 7543577, and others. The original post pointed out POSIBILITIES because of a NEW efficient, economical way to produce pure O2 and allow carbon capture. All present methods to produce O2 are about 14% efficient compared to the theoretical energy it should require (exergy). This means it takes about 8 times the energy and lots of equipment. Coal power plants, fuel cells, industrial furnaces, and cars and everything else, are designed to operate in our 21% O2 atmosphere. What would they look like on a planet that had a 100% O2 atmosphere? -
jyushchyshyn at 07:21 AM on 1 November 2012The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
will Germany does need conventional power, but it does not need new coal power. All Germany has to do is retain its nuclear power plants and build new ones. By mid century, assuming that they would be including hydro under renewable, all of the conventional power could be nuclear. -
tksoft at 07:15 AM on 1 November 2012The Big Picture (2010 version)
I think you nailed it. Thanks! -
DSL at 07:06 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Quite so, Dikran. I'm all ears. -
vrooomie at 07:03 AM on 1 November 2012Climate of Doubt Strategy #1: Deny the Consensus
W'OK! I was following--I thought!--the instructions at the bottom of the page...they are not clear, to a newbie-to-HTML as I am. Please tone it down, and I apologize. -
vrooomie at 06:47 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Alpinist@77: Even Dale's home turf, WUWT, isn't exactly safe for a rational person to point out what you've pointed out, in your last sentence. Even there, it's considered in pretty bad taste to minimize a storm that has, to date, killed over 50 people, and looks like it will easily top the damage from a "real" hurricane, Isaac. They're eating their own. -
idunno at 06:37 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Climate Central has had some excellent coverage of the build up, the arrival and the linkages of the storm to Global Warming. Also the Jeff Masters wunderground blog. It's really none of my business, as I am not a US citizen, but I think that those of you who do not wholly support Governor Romney's programme should be thanking Dale and his ilk, and encouraging him to continue posting these comments as much as possible and as widely as possible for the coming 5 days. -
Alpinist at 06:37 AM on 1 November 20122012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
Dale: I'd recommend you have a look at Jeff Maser's Wunderblog regarding Sandy. Jeff has a very detailed history there and determined very early that Sandy had no escape route and could be extremely damaging. Jeff also has an excellent discussion of the Greenland blocking ridge and its effect and potential relationship to the loss of Arctic sea ice. As for your initial comment downplaying the severity of Sandy...this is probably the wrong site for that sort of comment as you've figured out by now...
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