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Comments 5851 to 5900:

5851. KR at 13:15 PM on 10 June 2021
      The day Oil Giants lost the Climate Fight
      

      Encouraging note: the company behind the XL Pipieline (tar sands crude oil from Canada, massively polluting in extraction and use) has officially dropped the project given Biden Administration resistance. 

      www.cnn.com/2021/06/09/energy/keystone-pipeline-canceled/index.html

      Nice to see some good climate news.

5852. nigelj at 08:16 AM on 10 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick Palmer @18, I think you are largely wrong about the fossil fuel companies, especially the view that their own internal scientists were outspoken alarmists who exaggerated things. Stephen Schneider's views that climate scientists exaggerate and use scare stories are the opinion of one person. All the material I've seen from the IPCC is conservatively worded and full of caveats, ifs and buts. Theres no reason to believe Exons own internal scientists were much different. At worse they may have said theres potentially a big problem here, and there would be nothing wrong with saying that. Yes climate activists do sometimes get carried away, but they are not the scientists.

      Exon knew there was a climate problem but told the public a different story. Theres no way of excusing this. Even if Exonn didnt really understand the true extent of the problem it doesn't change the utterly mixed messaging.

      Lets look at oil companies more generally. At least some oil companies have clearly been involved in spreading campaigns to create doubt, amply proven in books like Dark Money. I've seen polling studies showing most employees of oil companies are climate sceptics. This is probably not surprising because they are obviously worried about losing their jobs. But the fact remains oil companies have helped spread denialism and doubt. They may be worried about their kids and the climate problem but that doesnt mean they arent sceptics of one sort or another or oppose mitigation.

      However theres obviously another side to it. Its fair to say that expecting oil companies to just shut down their operations in a voluntary way is unrealistic. They aren't breaking any laws, and there is no society wide consensus that they should just shut down.  Companies exist to make profits and ignore environmental issues the "tragedy of the commons problem". People are rightly worried about their job security. Climate change is a complex costly sort of problem but doesn't fall into the same category as an immediate threat to people lives like an industrial toxin. If companies cover up issues like that they would be potentially legally liable. But I can still understand the anger of the climate activists.

      The issue is entirely about what society and its governments does about oil companies. This is about what laws, regulations and taxes it applies. Without that nothing much will change.  I notice that the Netherlands have recently imposed a law requiring Shell oil to cut emissions 40%. Other countries are imposing carbon taxes.

      Of course its also about individual carbon footprints. Another issue.

      Yes you are right theres hypocrisy and finger pointing etc on both sides of the debate, but theres a huge volume of people that are less vocal and strident in their views.

5853. Philippe Chantreau at 04:17 AM on 10 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick,

      You just reiterated the points you made earlier.

      Uncertainties have not been represented inadequately in the IPCC reports. Cloud feedbacks have always been at the top of the uncertainty ladder.

      You are sliding toward the very behavior you condemn by saying the CMIP5 models run "too hot." In reality they run slightly warmer than observations, and slightly is even generous. There is plenty of good posts on that RealClimate and even here showing how well within models' expectations the observations have been. The cloud feedback underestimation has not prevented actual temps of increasing beyond .15 degC/decade. Everything considered, the models have performed remarkably well, even the old ones. Describing it as "too hot" does exactly the same as what all the sides you accuse of taking liberties with the facts do.

      I'll add that over-emphasizing uncertainty is Judith Curry's preferred method of manipulation and it is every bit as bad than anything done by so-called alarmists. It is a free pass for do nothing or slowly do a little, neither of which are adequate.

      I can understand the pressures and imperatives that a business like Exxon has to reconcile. The state of their knowledge, and the remarkably reasonable tone in most of the old documents (see the wayback machine link) are so far removed from the propaganda they pushed that your excuse falls short. Why such an immense disconnect? Sure there was significant uncertainty in 1979. Less so in 1989. Much less in 1999. All the uncertainty that could justify not seriously starting a transition was gone in 2009. Exxon kept on pushing the same narrative, and still does, through the same actors. 

      I do not disagree that, if one wants to understand the science, the message coming from activist organizations is often not helpful. I do not disagree that some have a wholefully unrealistic perception of the difficulty of a full energy transition. The energy transition we are faced with is a major undertaking. Both the magnitude and urgency of it have been made far worse by the decades of inaction caused by the fossil fuel backed opinion campaigns.

      As for myself, I strive to be reality-based and firmly believe that no option should be off the table, except those whose range of consequences can not be well assessed )atmsopheric geo-engineering comes to mind). I am not opposed, in principle, to nuclear. I believe that existing dams that can produce electricity and allow to store water should be kept. I think that enhanced geothermal deserves more attention. I also know for sure that a world in which the pursuit of more profit at any cost all the time is the main driver is a world doomed to fail.

5854. Nick Palmer at 00:01 AM on 10 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Here's a live link to the skepsci article which I neglected to do in my previous long comment
      
      https://skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm

5855. Nick Palmer at 23:49 PM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      When activists try to bad mouth Exxon et al they speak from a 'post facto' appreciation of the science, as if today's relatively strong climate science existed back when the documents highlighted in 'Exxon knew' were created. Let me explain what I think is another interpretation other than Greenpeace/Oreskes'/Supran's narratives suggesting 'Exxon knew' that climate change was going to be bad because their scientists told them so as far back as the 70s and 80s. Let me first present Stephen Schneider's famous quote from 1988 (the whole quote, not the edited one used by denialists).

      "On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but – which means that we must include all doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, means getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This “double ethical bind” we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."

      I submit that part of the apparently damning content of the documents was exactly caused by Exxon's scientists, Schneider-like, simplifying their message to initially present it to their corporate employers. In exactly the same way that the denialosphere combed though the Climategate emails to find apparently damning statements and then interpreted them through a filtered 'lens' to insinuate fraud and data manipulation, usually by editing out context etc and even previous and subsequent sentences which changed the meaning completely, I submit that Greenpeace's 'Exxon knew' team did that too. They knew that the majority of people who read their report would assume that the current science that projects the bad consequences that we are (fairly) sure about today was as rock solid back way back then as it is now and would therefore jump to their desired conclusion that Big Capitalist Oil was just being evil. I'm absolutely not suggesting that Greenpeace's team were consciously being deceptive, just that they allowed their zealotry to run away with them so they saw just what they wanted to see...

      Today's science, that projects bad outcomes, was by no means solid back then. I think that what Big Oil should be fairly accused of is the much less 'evil' culpability of not adequately informing the public about the full probabilities of the risks - which again is the 'Schneider' method of tailoring one's output for one's audience. Perhaps they didn't get "the right balance is between being effective and being honest" quite right. As denialists will endlessly tell us, the use of fossil fuels has been on balance a huge boon to humanity and I suspect that past one-dimensional calls by activists (including those I naively made!) to not use or explore for any more fossil fuels almost overnight, to a corporate mind, would require a public relations strategy to counter that extremist view while waiting for the science to get solid enough to start serious corporate planning for change should it be needed.

      'Ban all exploration for or use of fossil fuels today' is a frequent call of today's extremists and no doubt they are sincere that they think the risks are such that such draconian action must be justified, and that things such as new technology, carbon capture, Gen3/4 nukes, agricultural changes etc must be Machiavellian Big Industry just manouevring to do nothing now to protect their financial bottom lines - delaying tactics that must be resisted. I think Professor Mann too has fallen in to the trap of feeling 'certainty' about what he thinks the solutions should be and this has lead to his dismissal, even libellous characterisations, of those who offer up a more nuanced way forward. Activists who call for an immediate ban on fossil fuels and 100% renewables by next Tuesday do not seem to realise that they are thinking in a one-dimensional way. Their 'solution' might address climate change, but such a solution would instantly cause enormous global disruption and would likely spark off the mother of all global economic recessions, which would rapidly cause long lasting extreme global hardship much greater, at least in the short to medium term, than anything global warming is scheduled to do for several decades.

      So what were the 'uncertainties' back then? Some of the most important parameters plugged into climate models are those for climate sensitivity. While (widely varying) estimates existed before 2000 it only got well constrained and modelled within firm(ish) limits by papers published after then. Check out the links in this Skepsci article to see when the major papers were published.
      https://skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm

      Here is Carbonbrief.org explaining the lack of certainty back then

      "From Carbon Brief https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity

      "In 1979, the Charney Report from the US National Academy of Sciences suggested that ECS was likely somewhere between 1.5C and 4.5C per doubling of CO2. Nearly 40 years later, the best estimate of sensitivity is largely the same.
      However, Prof Andrew Dessler at Texas A&M University pushes back on this suggestion. He tells Carbon Brief:

      I think that the idea that ‘uncertainty has remained the same since the late 1970s’ is wrong. If you look at the Charney report, it’s clear that there were a lot of things they didn’t know about the climate. So their estimate of uncertainty was, in my opinion, way, way too small"

      "Back in 1979, climate science was much less well understood than today. There were far fewer lines of evidence to use in assessing climate sensitivity. The Charney report range was based on physical intuition and results from only two early climate models.

      In contrast, modern sensitivity estimates are based on evidence from many different sources, including models, observations and palaeoclimate estimates. As Dessler suggests, one of the main advances in understanding of climate sensitivity over the past few decades is scientists’ ability to more confidently rule out very high or very low climate sensitivities.""

      Activists try to insinuate that the documents and memos show that Big Oil 'knew the scientific truth' back then and adopted a position of denial, or psychopathic deception for the sake of profits, in the face of noble environmental groups campaigning against them because they also 'knew the truth' too. Much though it pains me to admit it, I was part of the campaigning certainy of those groups back then. I used to coordinate a Friends of the Earth area group and all the material I saw did not mention any of the scientific doubts and the uncertainties which featured in the scientific literature. I trusted it - it was the same thing we see today when such as Extinction Rebellion go waay over the top with the certainty of their assertions and the cherry picked nature of the information they present to the public. This is why I think that all sides - denialist/alarmist/doomist/sceptic etc - use misleading rhetoric to spin their narratives. I realise that many of the environmental activist 'troops' in their crusades like to feel certain that they know the 'truth' that Evil Big Industry had psychopathically tried to hide but I think total honesty is necessary to enable the public to judge the situation properly, so that policy changes we need are not based on the shifting sand that the 'divine deception' of the rhetoric of extremist campaigners and political forces is. Noble cause corruption is not a good strategy whether it is that of the greens, the left or right.

      It's not as if even today's science is completely bulletproof, as a new paper about clouds shows. Consideration of it offers up an explanation as to why the new CMIP6 models are running too hot, and that is because observations show that some parameters plugged into current cloud models about longevity, warming and precipitation are wrong which mean that clouds cool more than previously thought. It doesn't,as it happens, change what we need to do but it does demonstrate that even today a fairly major part of the mechanics of climate changee can - uh hm - be changed.

      New paper on clouds
      https://www.carbonbrief.org/cooling-effect-of-clouds-underestimated-by-climate-models-says-new-study

5856. One Planet Only Forever at 05:07 AM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Bob Loblaw,

      I will definitely check out The Authoritarians, reading the complete book. A shorter read on Authoritarianism is On Tyranny, by Timothy Snyder.

      There are many other helpful references including How Fascism Works, by Jason Stanley. Jonathan Haidt's book, The Righteous Mind, also presents important understanding, however, I suggest being skeptical of his recommendations regarding how to deal with them. Harmful people should not be engaged by compromising efforts to limit harm done.

      I have read many books laying out reasons for the tragic ease of obtaining popular support for harmful Nationalism, Authoritarianism and Capitalism.

      The key is Governing to limit harm done based on the constant pursuit of increased awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful. Some people will responsibly self-govern that way. But many people develop temptations to not self-govern that way. And harmful wealthy people maintain and increase their status relative to others through misleading marketing and appealing beliefs in systems that are actually unjust and unfair, especially if awareness and understanding of what is harmful is not diligently pursued.

      Any socioeconomic-political system can be compromised by harmful pursuits of status "Winning". But misleading marketed Capitalism and Free Market Consumerism is potentially very harmful because the harmful stuff can become popular and profitable which makes it seem even more justified and excusable. And Capitalism has a fundamental need for constant expansion which is a serious problem on a finite planet. The Capitalist free market requires significant effort to identify and limit harm being done. And history proves that the participants in the system will not do that very well. A clears example is the stagnation of opportunity for the middle and lower classes in the USA since the 1970s in spite of massive increases in perceptions of total wealth. And very little of the economic activity that generated those perceptions of wealth are sustainable. And much of the activity is harmful.

      A nasty climate impact example of unjustified justification and excusing is the way some people try to compare "their evaluation of the Benefits that would be lost if the Harm to future generations was reduced" with "their evaluation of the Harm done to future generations, with the future harm done discounted because that is what you can do with future harm". Having an MBA, I appreciate the merits of net-present-value obtained by discounting future costs and revenue when comparing investment alternatives. But I understand that methodology should not be applied to cases where a person or group benefits at the expense of others, especially future generations. Even Stern's use of a low discount rate is likely inappropriate. Harm done is not justified by benefits obtained that way.

      An even nastier reality of those Benefit-Harm evaluations is that the people doing them claim that whatever Status Quo has developed has to be maintained and improved on, even though the wealthier people who benefit form harm done deserve a loss of status. And they over-state the Benefits that have to be given up, including ignoring the activity in the alternative economy. And they understate the harm that will be done. Then they discount that low-balled harm because it happens in the future they will likely not experience.

5857. Philippe Chantreau at 04:35 AM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      One of the links in the SkS post I linked is no longer working, but this one does:

      https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24102019/exxon-scientists-climate-research-testify-congess-denial/

       

      The complete investigation by ICN is available on kindle, titled "The Road not Taken."

      Plenty of documents from inside Exxon available through the wayback machine:

      https://web.archive.org/web/20170701104611/http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/shareholder-archive/supporting-materials

       

      The Harvard paper perhaps says it best:

      "[A]ccounting for expressions of reasonable doubt, 83% of peer-reviewed papers and 80% of internal documents acknowledge that climate change is real and human-caused, yet only 12% of advertorials do so, with 81% instead expressing doubt. We conclude that ExxonMobil contributed to advancing climate science—by way of its scientists’ academic publications—but promoted doubt about it in advertorials. Given this discrepancy, we conclude that ExxonMobil misled the public."

      https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f

      Is it of any interest to know why they misled? What is that going to change? It's not like any of these people will ever experience any serious consequence to their (possible, right Nick?) harmful actions.

5858. Philippe Chantreau at 04:15 AM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Of course Nick, they do.

      However, I'm sure that I don't have to remind you of the infinite ability of humans to rationalize any decision they make. It is entirely possible that these executives feel that their children will be shielded from adverse consequences because their parents have amassed a little fortune, which can afford one a lot of protection against a degrading world. It is possible that they find that to be enough.

      It is entirely possible that they estimated that every parent should do what they can to protect their own children and that if they fail, it's their fault, regardless of the obstacles these parents face.

      It is entirely possible that they have convinced themselves that it's natural cycles, or this, or that, and they sincerely believe it to be the case. Executives are good at finance and the human relations of power games, but they can very well suck at judging scientific information.

      It is entirely possible also that they made a risk/cost/benefit analysis that, somehow, placed profits at the top of the priority scale. Stranger things have happened. Look at the opiates crisis.

      It is possible that these executive have absolutely zero notion about ecosystem services, treshold events in biodiversity and all sorts of concepts that belong in areas of studies and activity other than the ones where they operate. Even if they do hear about, they will be much more likely to dismiss such seemingly "abstract" concepts in the face of hard financial targets.

      Anything is possible, we'll never know because we are not in their heads. What we do know is what Exxon's own research showed in the early 80s, and the direction the company took in the late 80s and 90s, SkS has actually looked at that:

      https://skepticalscience.com/1982-exxon-accurate-prediction.html

      One is free to draw any conclusion about the executives' motivations or thoght processes from the company's actions. I agree that it is indeed of little usefulness to do so. Fighting the disinformation put forth by the actors they supported and still support to this day is more useful. It does fit into that effort, however, to point attention toward the extreme dissonance between the serious research done by the company and the crackpottery they decided to promote instead, and continued to promote even after it failed to be confirmed by all the rest of the scientific litterature.

5859. Bob Loblaw at 04:04 AM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick:

      I have been studying climatology for about 45 years - since I started my undergraduate program. I have seen all the attempts to discredit the science, even as I have seen the science develop. For me, the first IPCC reports represented a summary of what I had already learned about climatology over a period of 15 years - not a news story. The attacks on the science grew exponentially as the science grew stronger.

      I said above that I always keep in mind "what if I am wrong?", but I have very little doubt that that massive efforts were made by the fossil fuel industry to deflect risks to their business model. They did not develop the skills on their own - they had decades of tobacco industry activity as a guideline to what worked and what did not.

      Have you ever read Chris Mooney's The Republican War on Science? It details how similar approaches have been taken by right wing politics and industry for a wide variety of topics. This did not start with climate science.

      Not all people want the same things for their children and grandchildren. Maybe try following the link I gave above to The Authoriarians - or go directly to the link on that page that has a more recent discussion of Bob Altemeyer's new book in the context of other books on Donald Trump. Read that, and ask, what does it suggest about the Trump family's desires for its children and grandchildren? I'm willing to bet that it is not the same as yours.

      https://theauthoritarians.org/updating-authoritarian-nightmare/

5860. Nick Palmer at 02:56 AM on 9 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      3 very thought provoking comments from Nigel J, OPOF and Bob Loblaw. I'm still considering Supran/Oreskes' paper and Supran's presentation. So far I'm still seeing that a (possible) misattribution of motives for the actions of Exxon/Big Oil is at the root of the (possible) misrepresention to the public that these two, and in particular Greenpeace's prior 'Exxon knew' report, have created. I'm not attibuting sinister motives to the researchers, they're probably sincere in the beliefs and judgements that framed their interprations, but I can see other far more benign interpretations than the simplistic one we are presented that 'Big Oil is evil, knew the dangers they were subjecting the public to and didn't care as long as the dollars kept rolling in'.
      
      Perhaps people ought to remember that Big Fossil Fuel's executives and C.E.O.s have got children and grandchildren they worry about too...

5861. Bob Loblaw at 23:47 PM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      One of the basic principles I try to keep in mind is "what happens if I am wrong?".

      Unfortunately, the highly partisan, toxic environment that much of the 'debate" happens in includes a large number of people that absolutely refuse to consider the possibility that they are wrong. My impression is that this tendency is much stronger on the side of Authoritarians - a life view that is generally stronger on the right wing part of the political spectrum. I strongly recommend reading The Authoritarians, by Bob Altemeyer. (https://theauthoritarians.org/) The original eBook is long, but I see the web page has a recent commentary.

      Much open "debate" is geared towards shifting the Overton Window (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window). Make an extreme position look reasonable, whle trying to make a reasonable middle-of-the-road evaluation look as if it is extreme.

      ...and of course, there is always the aspect of tellng people what they want to hear, so you can manipulate them.

       

      

5862. One Planet Only Forever at 23:14 PM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      The questioning of Mann’s actions and statements, which would extend to others who express similar perspectives, has prompted me to develop a set of questions for everyone who is questioning Mann’s, or any other person’s, actions. The questions are apolitical. And they apply to any socioeconomic-political environment a person has developed in. And they apply to the full range of important considerations like the Sustainable Development Goals, not just the important Climate Change impact issue.

      As a lead in to the questions I will share how my perspective developed. I continue to develop my thinking on this issue. As a Canadian Registered Professional Engineer, my starting point is the things that make Engineering successful. The things that make Engineering successful, and also apply to many other situations, are:

      • not allowing harmful things to be done (Do No Harm, to the environment or any other people)
      • because there is always uncertainty, focus on reducing and limiting harm and risk of harm
      • constantly pursue increased awareness and understanding of the potential harm of things, especially for any new way of doing things before they are implemented, but also of already developed and built things
      • if something has been built and in service or is being built but is learned to be harmful or risky it is repaired or removed from use.

      The following are an incomplete set of questions, perhaps not in the best order or phrasing, that people questioning things, or thinking about or doing things, should consider (everyone should be curious and question and wonder about things):

      • Who is responsible when something develops popularity or profitability but is discovered to be harmful?
      • Are the developers of a new activity or institution (institution meaning: a developed cultural belief or formal aspect of social organization) responsible for thoroughly investigating the potential for harm?
      • Are the first consumers or beneficiaries of the activity or institution responsible for thoroughly investigating the potential for harm?
      • Is a person who benefits more from the activity or institution more responsible for thoroughly investigating the potential for harm?
      • Is a person of higher status (wealth, power, or influence) obliged to also provide a higher level of leadership regarding awareness and understanding of what is harmful and how to limit or stop harmful actions?
      • Are the higher status people obliged to help lower status people live better (live at least a basic decent life, not be harmful), including by setting a good example for others to aspire to?
      • What about Marketing or Educating? What is the Merit of marketing or education that does not pursue and promote increased awareness and improved understanding of how to be less harmful and more helpful to Others?
      • Should something that is understood to be harmful be allowed to continue until something more popular or more profitable is developed to displace it?
      • Who should be determining how harmful something is? Should people who benefit from the harmful activity or institution have a say regarding how harmful it is? Should people who would potentially benefit from something harmful be allowed to compromise the efforts to limit the harm done?
      • In what situations is it acceptable for an evaluation of benefit to be used to negate or counter an evaluation of harm being done?

      The perspective a person develops as they consider these questions can relate to their pathology. It is important to consider each question from a perspective of not knowing what position or role you would have in any situation. A responsible rational person would adopt the perspective of a person potentially being harmed. A harmfully selfish person, however, would adopt a perspective of hoping to benefit from harm done.

      I support the position that actions like CCS, afforestation, nuclear, soil regeneration etc are harmful actions if they are used to justify ‘more fossil fuel use’, or in the case of nuclear are considered to be a sustainable solution that future generations can continue to benefit from and face no risk of harm. In addition, it is undeniable that the energy consumption by the highest consuming people, the ways of living that less fortunate people would see as the example to aspire to, need to be reduced. And harmful risky unsustainable systems like nuclear used to prolong the over-consumption of energy by the more fortunate is unacceptable. These things are helpful as temporary actions in addition to rapidly ending fossil fuel and reducing the energy demands of the highest demanding people. Attempts to claim that curtailing fossil fuel use, especially by the more fortunate, can be slower if these action are employed are indeed misleading marketing games played by the likes of 'delayers, dismissives, inactivists'.

      A root of the socioeconomic-political problems that develop appears to be that harm done will often be ignored or excused, especially when there are potential benefits. Medical treatments where the potential benefit for the patient outweigh the potential harm are exceptions where benefits should be allowed to excuse harm. Another example would be a business investment where the person or group of people making a financial investment will be solely at risk for any financial loss. Things get problematic when there are personal differences in Benefit and Harm, when the person or group benefiting more is not the person or group harmed more. Particularly problematic are cases where the harmed people cannot effectively penalize those who harmed them such as: future generations, people in other legal jurisdictions, people with different degrees of legal power.

      Problems develop in Business and Social matters when the focus on “Do No Harm” that produces engineering success fails to be rigorously applied. The result can be the development of the unethical/immoral/unjustified belief the “Harm Done can be Justified by Benefits Obtained”.

      If something harmful or risky is allowed to compete for popularity or profit, the risk is that it will become popular or profitable. And something that has developed popularity or profitability becomes harder to correct or stop, especially with the power to abuse misleading marketing.

      An obvious conclusion is that misleading marketing is a serious part of the problem. What is required is significant penalties for participating in being misleading, with more serious penalties applied to wealthier and more influential people, including penalties for elected representatives who participate in being harmfully misleading or who fail to properly learn and educate others on important issues.

5863. nigelj at 17:54 PM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick Palmer @9 wow reading your comments was a bit like looking in a mirror. I am also towards the political centre and I have an eclectic mix of views. I think this is because I'm an individualist and not a group orintated sort of person. Not saying this is necessarily a superior thing but its how I'm built. Most people appear more group orientated and tribal (that dreadful word) and very reluctant to adopt any idea coming from the "other side". This is hard to change, and is probably why politics has cycles of progressive and conservative governments.

      I agree both sides of the climate debate misbehave. I've been labelled a luke warmer for suggesting some warmists get utterly carried away and feed the denialists or have confirmation bias etc. Its tough going taking a contrary view to your "group". However its important to avoid false equivalence. The denialists are clearly the worst offenders. Don't loose touch of that.

5864. ubrew12 at 13:02 PM on 8 June 2021
      Talking about climate change: Necessary, yet so uncomfortable
      

      "...although they "believe" in the problem of climate change, they are not willing to allow uncomfortable... policies to be introduced to counteract the problem."  Lately, I've sifted my conversation toward discussion of risk: What is the risk of making a permanent mistake, from a particular course of action?  Mistaken policies to fight climate change can be undone with the stroke of a pen, and there is nothing permanent about a wind turbine, or a field of solar panels.  They are even dismantling dams in the State of Oregon.  But the excess carbon dioxide we're putting into the atmosphere will be there, in human terms, forever.  It's reasonable to assume that future technologies to reduce that CO2 back into fuel of some sort will require at least as much energy as was released when that fuel was first oxidized.  Although I understand there are promising technologies in underground injection, we should assume the excess CO2 will be up there for hundreds of years, and we already know a changed climate is proportional to a changed CO2 content.  So, on this problem, the risk of the 'do nothing alternative' is quite high, due to its irreversibility.  It matters, as well, that the relevant experts charged with understanding the costs associated with that excess CO2 are themselves alarmed by the prospect of this change.  Meanwhile, the risk of taking action is quite low, due to its reversibility.  Wind and solar farms can be put up and taken down as needed, but once you put excess CO2 up into the atmosphere, it's not coming down, by any technology and expense now imaginable.

5865. Nick Palmer at 09:05 AM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      libertador @5

      I'm not sure I have a political ideology any more. I've settled on a rag bag of right and left wing concepts ending up somewhere 'in the middle'.  I think it's singleminded one-dimensional dogmatic political ideologies, and the activists that they spawn, which are now the major obstacle to humanity getting things moving. I've found that the proponents of all ideologies use misleading language and rhetoric etc to try to make the case that their way is 'the way' because, unfortunately, that is how politicians get elected and retain their support. Just you try getting elected by telling the people the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth - I did and all I can say is 'good luck with that'!

      As I said, I've been active in engaging climate science denialism for over 30 years (and other forms of pseudoscience long before that). After a while, one gets to recognise when someone arguing a point is using certain rhetorical techniques to sway their audience to form certain conclusions. This applies whether whether the case they are arguing is true or fallacious and whether they are trying to deceive or genuinely believe what they are saying.

      It would be less than objective to not notice when the proponents of the 'side' that one's heart favours use the very same methods to sway their audience as those who try to, consciously or unconsciously, mislead their audience. Integrity is not best served by demonising one's opponents for deception whilst giving those supporting whatever 'cause' floats your boat a free pass for using exactly the same methods - it's a bad strategy to believe that 'the ends justify the means' - apart from anything else, using misleading facts and statements, because one believes it justified if it sways sufficient numbers of the general public to vote your way, is counter-productive because the opposition immediately seize on and amplify any 'divine deception' one might have used to smear the whole scientific case by proxy as can clearly be seen in how the denialosphere reacts to the ever more soldifying scientific postion on climate change by endlessly recycling unwise statements and 'forecasts' from yesteryear of top scientists and activists.

5866. scaddenp at 08:32 AM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick, I don't think the whole world is taking sides in US cultural wars, nor are wrapped in the strange ideologies rooted there. I would also agree with libertador, that people abilities to do Bayes evaluation of evidence differs somewhat to put it mildly.

5867. nigelj at 06:56 AM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Micawber @6, you seem unhappy with the quality of the peer review system and that it stops new ideas getting through. The Peer review process isn't perfect, perhaps because ultimately it relies on human beings making judgements and human beings are fallible. Its not clear what magic answer there is to that. But the peer review process hasn't stopped publication of the greenhouse effect, and a few crazy opposing theories like adiabatic heating. The point being the peer review system does work ok overall in terms of publishing new ideas and not surpressing things.

      I thought your comments on all the rest were interesting and I agree overpopulation is a problem. Bit its all off topic.

5868. Micawber at 03:04 AM on 8 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Michael Mann is correct in thinking that our information is totally controlled by media giants.
      Scientists are charged to read their own publications and “peer reviewers” stack the peers so that no new ideas can get through. Rarely if ever do you find references to key earlier work by retired or deceased scientists. I give a few examples.
      Microsoft Office still uses years beginning 1 January 1900. They charge for updates but still have a fatally flawed program. Why is he allowed to pose as a scientist and innovator?
      Even David Keeling was nearly prevented from continuing verification of CO2 infrared heat blankets by rigged peer review. He gives a vivid account in his autobiographical review:
      Keeling, C. D., 1998, Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth, Ann Rev. Energy Env, 23(1), 25-82, doi:10.1038/nature105981.
      Blair Kinsman had earlier shown how the misuse of statistics and inability to take daily validation data could mislead to wrong conclusion. Unlike in lab experiments geophysical data once not taken cannot be repeated at will. This has happened with our gross neglect of near surface ocean data where is located most anthropogenic heat.
      Kinsman, B. 1957, Proper and improper use of statistics in geophysics, Tellus 9(3), 408-418, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01897.x
      Free access sci-hub.do/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01897.x
      "The dangers facing the earth's ecosystems are well known and the subject of great concern at all levels. Climate change is high on the list. But there is an underlying and associated cause. Overpopulation."
      Sir David Attenborough https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRPmLWYbUqA
      "Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?"
      "The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Understand the Exponential Function" Bartlett, Albert A., 1979
      www.youtube.com › watch › v=F8ZJCtL6bPs
      Wherever humans are involved we HAVE the Weimar greed equation. Better snap up fish stocks, or oil or whatever before someone else grabs it.
      Graham Hancock has beeN ridiculed for suggesting there was a great civilisation as early as 400,000 years ago. Yet there are pyramids dated 130,000 years old in the Mississippi basin. Genetics link Oceania to S America. The compact nature of the Antikythera Clock suggest it was used for navigation. Why else would one cram a complete astronomical clock into a case the size of a sextant? The clock could predict lunar eclipses 78 years ahead as well as their colour. Many wheels have prime number of gears to give highly accurate astronomical times. There were even wheels for the Olympic and other games. Silicon valley may think of it as a mechanism or computer. But it was a clock long before Harrison’s. Such sophistication suggests many years development. It clearly could not have sprung up 350BC, any more than modern printed circuits could have been envisioned in 1957.

      Sealevels averaged 50m below present in prehistory before 1750AD. There were many rich landmasses where merchant sailors could establish empires. They were wiped out by catastrophic sea level rise both cyclical and from asteroid impacts. We are at the top of earth’s remaining peaks.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAqqA3fMwI8
      Melting ice of Greenland and Antarctica is proceedING exponentially leading to rapidly rising sealevels, floods and storms as well depleted fish stocks.

      Waters around Faeroes does not get cold enough for cod and halibut to breed. They need to be at least 10 years old before they start. (netflix seaspiracy)
      The north sea herring disappeared before 1950s, the Newfoundland cod in the 1980s. Gunboat diplomacy could not save them.
      What do you think we should do? Perhaps include the equatorial undercurrent in climate models?
      There has been too much about hot air instead of hot water.
      I have not heard Dr Mann mention this. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
      There needs to be a real focus on what the great oceans are telling us.

      Moderator Response:

      [DB]  The remainder of your long comment is far too broad, and thus off-topic, for this post.  Other discussion threads exist on ocean heat content, sea level rise and land-based ice mass losses.

5869. Jim Hunt at 00:13 AM on 8 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Nigel/Eclectic,
      
      As part of my Arctic alter ego's current project I have recently been archiving several WUWT articles. Rather than sending traffiic to the Dark Side perhaps you would prefer to view this archive, which may well be updated as time passes:
      
      https://archive.is/ZY8Re
      
      In similar vein please also see:
      
      https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1401476049687486465
      
      "#Unsettled #CommentsOff Please share!"

5870. libertador at 18:44 PM on 7 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      @ Nick Palmer

      "My position, to which I have come after more than 30 years trying to hold on to the truth, is that nowadays all sides"

      What kind of political ideology motivated this statement of yours?

      I think it is only reasonable to ask that, because as you said, there is no undistorted summing. At least if I recall correctly, that no hen has teeth. Actually, my question is motivated by the fact, that such a general claim of ideological motivation is either a truism or bullshit. It is a truism insofar everybody has some political convictions, which are in some way connected to what they believe about how the world is. It is bullshit insofar it might asserts, that everybodys consideration of evicendence is equally distorted.

5871. nigelj at 18:34 PM on 7 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Eclectic @18, I read some of the WUWT Comment Rebuke, starting with something about convection and working down to socialist conspiracies to control the sheep. Strangely entertaining and very crazy.  

5872. Eclectic at 11:19 AM on 7 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Nigelj, if you can spare the time to be amused ~ there is a real bunfight going on at WUWT.   Date 6th June , thread title: A WUWT "Comment Rebuke" .

      Thread 12 hours old, right now, and over 200 comments.  Between those who believe in some sort of GreenHouse Effect . . . and those who maintain that the GHE is zero or negligible.   And one or two other similar threads there, recently, with hundreds upon hundreds of comments.  Marvellous stuff !

      In a sense, these people are the children of Koonin.

5873. nigelj at 08:17 AM on 7 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick Palmer @1, yes its a little bit hard to know why Michael Mann is quite so dismissive of those things you list. Even if the people promoting them have agendas or ulterior motives it doesn't mean they are not useful things.

      However Michael Mann sounds like hes right about the two crucial things: Fossil fuel lobbies do promote reducing carbon footprints, and its obviously to deflect attention from the governmnets proposing things like carbon taxes and regulations. And hes right the main focus has to be on renewable energy etc. Imho this is because expecting people to make huge reductions to their carbon footprints is nonsensical. I'm talking big reductions in levels of consumption, stopping flying, going vegetarian, walking everywhere etc. Its incredibly unlikely people will do this and if we delay building a new energy grid on the assumption they will, we could end up in big trouble, because we have one chance to build a new energy grid, and it has to be done in the next couple of decades. 

      Clearly we could get a modest reduction in consumption levels, and  a carbon tax (as you mentioned) will  help with uptake of things like electric cars. 

5874. Nick Palmer at 08:09 AM on 7 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Thanks for the links Baerbel - I'll try to make time to watch them carefully tomorrow. I'm not a great fan of Oreskes ever since her polemic 'Merchants of Doubt' which, to me, seemed chock full of leading assertions about what any particular act or cherry picked sentence meant - the (potential) misattribution/misinterpretation of motives to which I referred before.
      
      My position, to which I have come after more than 30 years trying to hold on to the truth, is that nowadays all sides - denialists, alarmists, activists and industry - have had their thinking, even their rationality, contaminated by political considerations which distort their vision, whether that is why they choose to doubt climate science or whether they believe those who go far beyond what the science says to spread excessive and counter-productive alarmism. In all cases, I think none have got a strangehold on honesty and integrity, and finding views, even those of many prominent figures, which represent a fair and objective summing up of the situation, undistorted by whichever political ideology motivates them, I think is as rare as hen's teeth.

5875. BaerbelW at 03:01 AM on 7 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      Nick Palmer @1

      We obviously don't quite agree about Michael Mann's new book, but I'm particularly wondering about your statement regarding "Exxon Knew". What do you make of the scholarly publications and presentations by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes which to me seem to make a clear case regarding what Exxon (and others) knew and what they did (like in the recently published "Rhetoric and frame analysis of ExxonMobil's climate change communications"). Geoffrey Supran also explained Exxon's M.O. in a hearing in the European Parliament in 2019 - you can watch his presentation here starting at 11:53:01. I find this rather compelling and it fits well with what Michael Mann describes in his book.

5876. Nick Palmer at 23:24 PM on 6 June 2021
      The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews
      

      I'm really not happy about the direction Dr Mann has been going. Whilst obviously not doubting his extreme scientific credibility in the field of climate science, I think he is increasingly adopting the appearance of some of the more extreme campaigning activists by, in my view, misattributing dark motivations to and unfairly demonising the actions of governments, the fossil fuel industry etc.

      Dr Mann is speaking well ouside of his area of special competence when he dismisses CCS, afforestation, nuclear, soil regeneration etc as unworkable or as a Machiavellian poker play of the 'delayers, dismissives, inactivists' etc. It seems like he has seen a holy light that dictates that only 100% renewables can allowed in his vision and that any other possible solutions must have been manufactured by dark forces to muddy the waters and prevent this one-dimensional solution coming to pass. It's going to be hard enough decarbonisng fast enough using everything we can throw at it - Throwing out everything but Dr Mann's 'pure' solution will make it harder or even unachievable early enough.

      In recent months it has become increasingly common to see extremist activists more or less entirely blaming the fossil fuel industry for the situation. Probably the original root of this was Greenpeace's highly misleading report 'Exxon knew' which, in my opinion, uses every one of the deceptive rhetorical tricks that the denialosphere use to make their cases, including the wilful attribution of sinister motives where there are other more benign interpretations.

      Very recently, and this seems to be in Dr Mann's book now, the valid response that the consumers of fossil fuelled energy and products, services and materials manufactured and extracted with that energy - the great mass of the public - are at least as responsible as the sellers is being portrayed as a malignant tactic by the 'delayers, dismissives etc'. This is a seriously warped thing to assert. The public's choices every time time they go to the shops or buy a car or complain about their energy bill means that they must share at least some of the responsibility for those choices - in my view most of it - because there are alternatives available which the majority are still not choosing. Activists who are trying to portray the public as innocent fluffy bunnies manipulated by Evil Big Fossil Fuel are, frankly, away with the fairies (being kind) or more likely pursuing some hidden ideologically based poltical agenda which the public would not suport if they realised it.

      Knowledge of anthropogenic climate change has been widespread since James Hansen's 1988 speech to Congress - no-one can say that the public are still ignorant of the science and there has been a million articles, TV programmes and broadcasts delineating the risks. Whatever concerns the great mass of the ordinary public may have had and now have is clearly outranked by their desire to continue using the products and services more or less as usual.
      
      But, obviously, Dr Mann is still a leading light in 'our side' and his powerful arguments that the consequences of the use of fossil carbon based energy must be priced into the economy is, in my view, the single most important thing that can be done to turn the market away from greenhouse gas generating energy by enabling the public to, by simply voting with their wallets, favour the cleaner green alternatives.
      
      It's clear that many top economists favour the 'rising carbon fee and dividend' championed by that other prominent climate scientist/activist James Hansen. Excitingly, these economists come from all sides of the political spectrum and there seems to be acceptance from both the left and right wing of opinion that this relatively simple measure could be, if not a silver bullet, massively helpful at giving the market, and the great mass of the public who participate in that market, a strong signal which way to go without introducing authoritarian legislation and all the other heavy handed political tools which cause people to resist and fight back.

5877. Jim Hunt at 09:24 AM on 6 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Nigel @16 - I am also intrigued by what you refer to as "psychopathologies".
      
      You may be interested in this video I recorded at a "Pint of Political Neuroscience" presentation I attended, fortunately with my surfcam in my backpack, at an Exeter, UK public house?
      
      https://youtu.be/M2nZy6JoI1w
      
      

5878. nigelj at 08:16 AM on 6 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Eclectic @15

      "I myself do spend time "there" because (A) I am entertained & intrigued by the range of psychopathologies to be found in the comments columns, and (B) it allows me to construct & internally rehearse counter-arguments to the rubbish currently fashionable ....etc..."

      I totally understand. Nothing wrong with that. To be clear I'm equally intrigued by such psychopathologies and their seemingly endless varieties , having done a couple of psychology papers at Univerity many moons ago, but I get enough of them popping up here and over at realclimate.org and in our local media.

      Talking about the denialists hypocrsisy that JH mentions. Another feature of scientific cranks in their shameless hypocrisy. They seem completely unable to see it in themselves. I see some hypocrisy in myself sometimes, painful though it is to admit.

      Is WUWT a good or bad thing? They cook up all this nonsense and feed off and strengthen each other, and you can bet they spread it elsewhere as well. Hard to see it as a good thing.

      Of course I  would be worried if there was no climate scepticism, but when the scepticim descends into cherrypicking and stubborness its no longer scepticism. As we both know.

      The thing is we have free societies with freedom of speech thankfully (with a few justified commonsense restrictions) so you will get crazy comments and websites like WUWT. Theres probably no alternative but to rebut them while trying hard not to give these guys too much oxygen. The climate science community appears to have generally taken the view better to ignore the denialist crazies (with the exception of a few websites like this and people like MM) and that may have been a mistake in my view. I know facts wont convince the angry politically motivated hard core of denialists, but there are a lot of other people in this world watching.

5879. Eclectic at 01:05 AM on 6 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Nigelj @12 , please excuse my lengthy reply.

      ( I have been pondering your analysis of the denialati at WUWT blogsite.)

      As you have seen, I enjoy bagging WUWT  ~ and I have been over-indulging a bit, lately  ~ but perhaps justifiably, in view of WUWT's  "facilitation" of Dr Koonin's half-truths & propaganda.   The editors  and chorus at WUWT  have given Koonin plenty of headlines plus glowing review of his new book plus praise for his contrarian attitude plus scathing denigration of his critics/opponents.

      Nigel, I don't advise you to spend much time on WUWT.   I myself do spend time "there" because (A) I am entertained & intrigued by the range of psychopathologies to be found in the comments columns, and (B) it allows me to construct & internally rehearse counter-arguments to the rubbish currently fashionable in the deniosphere, and (C) there are some - not many - points of information to be picked up (mostly in the OP's).  And I will grant that WUWT  has value in its (frequent!!) enumeration of the difficulties we are & will be  experiencing in attempting rapid transfer away from fossil fuels.  We definitely should not be viewing these difficulties through rose-tinted glasses.

      You are right, as to the types of denialists to be found at WUWT.   About half of them are pretty hopeless intellectually ~ they come to vent their anger into a receptive echochamber.  They are angry - in a wingnut extremist way - "libertarian" anger about Big Government and any taxes [except for military expenditure].   Anger about their money being siphoned off to go to the poor (especially to poor foreigners).   Anger about their [USA] nation being degraded and taken over by The Left and by The Woke and by the socialists / communists / Warmunists / Chinese / communists / socialists / socialists (have I mentioned "socialists" enough?)   I suspect there's a lot of wh-supremacism in there too  ~ but the "race" word is taboo in the comments columns there.  

      Very little of this has to do with climate science, but WUWT  is certainly a magnet for it all.  Basically they are an angry crowd, with little or no charity or compassion for other human beings.

      The other half of them are educated and moderately intelligent ~ some, very intelligent.  But their emotional baggage causes them to view the scientific world through a powerfully-distorting prism.   Cognitive dissonance & motivated reasoning are rampant, and debilitating.

      As you say, Nigel, they can start off looking fair . . . until their scaly netherparts hove into view.   Sad.

      Constituents : mostly American (plus expatriate Americans) and a modicum of Brits, and a surprisingly large component of Aussies.  Kiwis rare.

      As to loneliness ~ well, they get a sort of community at WUWT.   From time to time, you will hear a confession that "all of my family disagree with me : they are dupes of the leftist media propaganda, and I can't budge them."   [ A pleasant sign to you and me, eh, Nigel.]

      Saddest and loneliest are the handful of complete climate science crackpots.   Week after week, they keep publicizing their screed of crackpottedness.  Sometimes ridiculed, but mostly ignored by the other denialists (some of whom are GHE deniers also!).   Some - but not all - also fit in the political extremist basket.

      Overall, Nigel, the WUWT  is a magnet for quite a range of dysfunctional characters.   I am uncertain whether the WUWT  blogsite is a bad thing (in echochambering and reinforcing their nonsense) . . . or whether it is a good thing, in keeping the denizens occupied among themselves, with less time to get up to other mischief.

5880. Eclectic at 20:24 PM on 5 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Jim Hunt @13 and prior :-

      your guerrilla tactics to get your comments onto WUWT  blogsite must provide you with some entertainment, despite your low success rate.  However, the WUWT  Moderators - and the Chief Grouch - enjoy the strategic advantage of the veto . . . and they use it very often (and not just on you).

      Few of us are entirely free of all hypocrisy : and WUWT  is outstandingly possessed of a large share of that vice.   While continually decrying the "Cancel Culture" wielded so unfairly by The Woke Left & socialists/communists & Hollywood & the ubiquitous Democrat-leaning media & so forth . . . nevertheless the WUWT  hierarchy are quick to cancel nearly everyone that they themselves disapprove of.  [So far, the many comments by the excellent scientist Nick Stokes are an exception ~ I suspect that's because he is "kept on" as a token sign of WUWT's tolerance.]

      But it's all an uphill battle for the WUWT  tribe.   Why, why, why oh why won't those venal corrupt leftie scientists come and front up and debate with us real scientists here at WUWT ?

      Well, we here at WUWT  are consoled by the Shades of Galileo & Feynman.  We alone hold high the flickering Torch of True Science & Western Civilization.   Barbarians like Jim Hunt are not welcome.

5881. Jim Hunt at 19:06 PM on 5 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Nigel @12 - All that being the case you may well be interested in taking a good long look at my new WUWT/Koonin Venn diagram?
      
      https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/06/watts-up-with-that-koonin-hypocrisy/
      
      The greatest danger posed by Steve and Tony isn’t their ideas, it’s the attempt to silence all dissent.

      That and their corruption of science.
      
      
      

5882. nigelj at 15:51 PM on 5 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Eclectic @11, I've only read the WUWT website a few times but I still notice a strong pattern. About half of the denialist comments I read sound like the writer's had science degrees, and were quite correct sounding until you get towards the end of their posting, then some jaw droppingly stupid denialist comment or theory comes out that is obviously plain wrong, and a school student would probably see it. This is a characteristic of scientific cranks. I wonder if the website is a sort of 'magnet' for lonely all purpose scientific cranks, as well as the usual subjects (fossil fuel people, libertarians etc).

5883. JavaTom at 01:16 AM on 5 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      nigelj @1

      When we ordered our Tesla M3 in 2019 we were lucky and "only" had to wait for two months. Since then I've observed many people ordering EVs and then waiting for many months for delivery. In the case of the Kona EV some people waited for more than nine months. A far cry from the millions of ICE vechicles sitting on dealer lots.

      Yes, that's anecdotal but I have also observed that, with the exception of Tesla, auto makers consistently announce new EVs then restrict production to a token amount, i.e. less than 50,000 a year. So supply is definitely constrainted - by choice.

      That approach is supposedly changing this year with recent announcements from VW, Ford (F-150 pickup), and others. Some auto makers seemed to change their tune on EVs just after Biden was elected US President.  Funny about that.  We'll see how committed they are or whether Tesla will continue to eat their lunch.

      That's my Canadian perspective.  FWIW.

5884. Eclectic at 21:57 PM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Jim Hunt ~ sorry but at WUWT , my status is persona non existens , for I have never bothered to register and join the bunfight.

      When I read the comments columns at WUWT , I do occasionally pause to read some of the more-intelligent denizens [e.g. Willis and Rud] in order to marvel at their Cirque Soleil  gyrations & contortions of motivated reasonings & cognitive dissonances.  But mostly I skim through to find genuine logical scientific comment by recognized names such as Nick Stokes plus a band of other pseudonymous commenters of proven rationality.  They are a small band !   It's always amusing to see how many petulant "down-votes" which Nick & crew will garner from the peanut gallery.

      There are several deep-dyed denialists who do sometimes contribute some informative points.  These folks are sometimes well-informed . . . but despite their intelligence, they seem incapable of synthesizing a logical overview of the climate situation.   The other denialist commenters are mostly Dreck.   ( I would never ever use another D-word such as Deplorable.)

      Jim, in my usual decrepit mental state, I could rarely tell you what I had for lunch yesterday.  Yes, I have recently seen your comments pop up at Curry's ClimateEtc  and elsewhere, but I generally disremember which forums I have seen [you] on.

      Presently: on WUWT , the good Mr Watts is fizzing hot bubbles from under his collar, and has on 3rd June presented a post "Koonin responds to Sci Am" . . . but I don't see any substantive points raised therein ~ and I am not surprised  that Sci Am  has (so far) declined to give Koonin the oxygen.

      To me, it is not immediately clear which parts of the post are written by Koonin and which by Watts.  Sort of interleaved, perhaps.  Though some phrasings - such as "Oreskes and her gang of slimers", and perhaps "SciAm years ago ... turned into a socialist cesspool of opinion, with science as an afterthought" - might be thought more likely to come from the mild-mannered Mr Watts, than come from a respected left-leaning climate scientist from the Obama era.

      Jim, with a very large coffee in hand, I will look through the 120+ comments under Koonin.  But I probably won't soon re-surface from the Dark Abyss.

5885. Jim Hunt at 19:31 PM on 4 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      Hi Nigel,
      
      I'm glad we got that straightened out. I'm afraid a bit brusque on here just at the moment given the time I'm spending taking down some of the "trolls" you mention.
      
      Yes, we do seem to be on largely the same wavelength. However even Elon does have his shortcomings. He claims that the concept of "Bi-directional power transfer (AKA BPT), as we refer to V2G in the smoke filled back offices at the IEC, makes no sense:
      
      https://V2G.co.uk/2019/04/tesla-files-samdes-patent-application/
      
      However there are some who think he just wants to sell lots of Powerwalls!

5886. nigelj at 19:10 PM on 4 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      Jim Hunt @7, I didn't get your sense of humour. Normally I can read between the lines and I like the English sense of humour.  I think I'm just a bit on edge due to all the internet trolls out there. You clearly aren't one. Currently enjoying Bill Bailey the stand up comedian / musician. Sophisticated and sardonic.

      Looks like we are  more or less in agreement on the EV issue. Thank goodness for Tesla. They seem to be genuinely trying to step up production.

5887. Jim Hunt at 17:23 PM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Good morning Eclectic and CC,
      
      Time is of the essence here in the once United Kingdom, so I will be brief.
      
      Since you mention "Koonin" and "WUWT" in the same paragraph, please keep an eye on this developing story:
      
      https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1400498307445710849
      
      Eclectic - Since you seem to be a fellow occasional visitor to the dark side, perhaps you wouldn't mind keeping half an eye out just in case my pertinent comment at WUWT ever emerges into the cold light of day? Needless to say it has not done so as yet:
      
      https://archive.is/8idEw
      
      If you are not already persona non grata over there perhaps you might like to become so by asking Anthony where's he hiding it?! 
      
      
      

5888. Jim Hunt at 17:03 PM on 4 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      Nigel @3 - Good morning (UTC)
      
      No I wasn't doing that. My apologies if I have inadvertently offended you, but perhaps you are the one who should avoid jumping to conclusions?
      
      It seems that like certain denialistas one might mention, you fail to appreciate my tongue in cheek Anglo-Saxon sense of humour?
      
      https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1400498307445710849
      
      My "day job" involves advising the once Great British government, and indeed the rest of what remains of the planet, about "smart grid" technology, particularly with regard to electric vehicles:
      
      https://V2G.co.uk/2021/06/merging-migrating-ocpp-to-iec-63110/
      
      In my evidently overly brief comment above I was alluding to allegations that ICE OEMs are willing to use any excuse to avoid shipping BEVs.
      
      In my version of the Queen's English "waste of money" + "conspiracy" == "financial self interest".

5889. Eclectic at 15:24 PM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      Citizenschallenge @7 / @8 ,

      Pardon my poorly-pertinent reply, for I am presently somewhat at leisure to doodle and tap on my keyboard.

      IMO most people are busy getting on with their immediate problems, and are giving scant attention to this early stage of the climate train-wreck.  The passenger carriages are swaying and bumping a bit more than usual, it's true . . . but we've had various rough patches in the past, haven't we?  And most  of the wheels haven't come off (yet).

      Despite the decades of well-executed denialist propaganda, there is now more talk by the Press & politicians about the need to take action on climate.  The talk has increased . . . the action, not so much.  But at least the ship has left the quayside, and is picking up speed (though only reaching 3 knots so far).

      I am a regular reader of the extremists' blog WattsUpWithThat.   Entertaining if you have a strong stomach, and it's (just) occasionally informative.  The articles tend towards the Sour Grapes attitude, and the comment section is a marvellous menagerie of wingnuts and weally vewy cwoss Elmer Fudd [what an apt surname!] characters, overlapping with flat-earther "no-such-thing-as-GreenHouse-Effect" crazies.

      WUWT  is only the tip of the iceberg - and I am very uncertain about the size of the underlying berg.  But I have noticed - increasingly over recent years, and especially since mid-November 2020 - that the denizens of WUWT  are showing a slightly-desperate belligerence, and they sense that the infidel hordes have encircled the citadel of True Science (inhabited by the denizens).   And that the infidel/liberal-Press army is battering at the gates.

      The denizens feel (almost) confident the siege will soon be broken by the arrival of colossal electricity prices and the arrival of the oft-foretold onset of Giant Global Cooling.   But it seems the denizens can't entirely shake off a nagging feeling of dread.

      Let's hope the WUWT  denizens will be justified in their worries.  And let's hope that Koonin achieves little more than preaching to the choir.  Likewise with the multi-year crapola on the extremist fringe of YouTube.  I suspect that the majority of non-partisan voters pay little attention to both the good and the bad on YouTube.

5890. citizenschallenge at 14:00 PM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

       I know there's lots of wonderful stuff going on.  But it seldom seems to trickle down to the grassroots where it's needed.

      I've long dreamt of something like volunteer YouTube Fact Check squad - YouTube has become huge contributor to misinformation.  More than any few could do anything about.  But why not a loosely organized young smart students, who already spend a lot of time on YouTube and other social media.

      I mean look at the passion and rage in the eyes of the right wing thinking people who have been getting a steady dose of unopposed lies for decades - pretending that ain't so is self-destructive.

      If we aren't changing minds we are losing.

       

      Not trying to be a bummer, but I've been a long time spectator and it is what it is.  Unless there's some serious stepping up by lots regular citizens, we are in trouble.  

      You know democracy demands and informed and engage electorate.

      cheers,

      Peter

5891. citizenschallenge at 13:29 PM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      According to Koonin and the IPCC, there is no emerging “climate crisis.” And any change to climate that might occur will not bring economic devastation: it will result in a very modest reduction in what will still be extraordinary economic growth.

      It's all fine and good rolling our eyes at the stupidity.  But, you know: Why should they change what they're doing, if what they're doing, continues working like a charm?

      People are terrified of our global/local Environmental Problem because they can't let go of their faith in a job that pays better and endless growth, so we can have more stuff (So we continue dancing to the contrarian script.

       

      Think about Koonin's book and the idiotic articles, spreading like wildfire on the internet, that are being spoon fed to their constituents.  

      It's the same talking points, like a decades old broken loop.  Bluster, misdirection, cynicism, backed by a self-certainty that only the thoughtless are capable of. - Still, somehow the other side* of honest, rational, pragmatic thinking (SkS and such), keep getting drown out and lost in the dust.  

      {*That is scientific constructive debates - where truthfully representing your opponent position and all around fidelity to the facts and honest are demanded, because learning as the goal. 

      As opposed to lawyerly political debate, where winning is all that matters and honesty is treated with contempt.}

       

      Instead, it's the same old story, same old mind-boggling misdirections, knock people off their balance and always drawing the discussion away from the issues at hand.  

      Derailing every serious attempt at dialogue is their only goal. 

      I'm astounded at how well it works, and how the liberal science loving crowd still don't seem to be capable of bringing these discussions back on point.

      Every idiot climate science contrarian claim, has the seeds of a wonderful story that can expose the lie being purpetrated, while helping explain this, or that, aspect of our Global Heat and Moisturer Distribution Engine, {which is our climate, atmosphere, ocean, land and crysophere in a dance of cascading consequences).

       

      But most the time no one takes the time to make the effort to help explain simple science to willfully ignorate people.  They tell me its a waste of time and effort.  But, I keep wondering, if not for our 'opponents,' what about the folks on our own side.  We could benefit from a better understanding of smarter arguments ourselves?

      {Check out SkS Arguments section. Good basics, the facts.

      Unless we are changing minds, we are losing.  People who care, need to figure out how to make those facts come alive, in a way that helps people, not only understand our complex global weather systems, but to inspire them, this Earth is worth being in love with - Why not argue for trying to nurture, rather than consume and discard.

       

       

5892. Eclectic at 11:36 AM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      John S @5 ,

      yes, that's a marvellous letter . . . and so utterly brazen.

      For me, it's difficult to decide whether the author is a wingnut zealot, or merely a cynical paid propagandist.  Or a mixture of both.

5893. nigelj at 08:50 AM on 4 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      Jim Hunt @2, I assume you are referring to current supply constraints on electric cars being the current global chip shortage? It doesn't seem to be stopping them advertising electric cars where I live, and I doubt they would do that if it was a "waste of money".

      My comments were more an observation on the past. You post something that infers I either believe in conspiracy theories or cock ups by governments or car companies. I made no suggestion of either. I explained what I thought: Companies would prefer not to switch over to electric cars and obviously by not advertising them this furthers their cause. They create their own supply constraint but thankfully the whole strategy seems to be ending. This is neither a conspiracy or cock up, but pure financial self interest.

      Perhaps you should spend more time understanding what people are getting at and less time jumping to conclusions and trying to ridicule them and put words in their mouths with trick questions. And dont come back pretending you weren't doing that.

5894. John S at 06:13 AM on 4 June 2021
      A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
      

      I subscribe to a blog called Canadians for Affordable Energy out of curiosity as to what they are saying, but sometimes it's so bad I wish I didn't - case in point the following under the head line "IPCC Experts Say Doing Nothing Would Be Less Harmful"

      Dear John,

      The Net Zero by 2050 agenda is being forced upon Canadians. As I wrote to you in Part 3 of my Net Zero series, no one even knows how much Net Zero by 2050 is going to cost.

      The one thing we know for sure is that Canadians will be the ones footing the bill.

      But let me share with you what former U.S. President Barack Obama’s senior Department of Energy official Stephen Koonin said about pursuing Net Zero.

      Koonin looked at data from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and revealed that doing nothing to address climate change would not result in the economic devastation the alarmists say it would.

      According to Koonin and the IPCC, there is no emerging “climate crisis.” And any change to climate that might occur will not bring economic devastation: it will result in a very modest reduction in what will still be extraordinary economic growth.

      So from extraordinary economic growth to slightly less extraordinary economic growth.

      We, on the other hand, are pursuing Net Zero by 2050 with a whole bunch of policies that will kill economic growth.

      How is this rational?

      Read my latest blog post to find out more.

      Sincerely,

      Dan McTeague, P.C.
      President

5895. Daniel Bailey at 05:40 AM on 4 June 2021
      Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain
      

      @Joe Levesque, per NOAA's Arctic Report Card 2017, current Arctic temperature anomalies and low values of Arctic sea ice extent are unprecedented over the past 1,500 years.

      

       

      Expanding upon that, it's far warmer now in Greenland than it was at any point during the Viking habitation of it.  The few Vikings that survived left rather than die there (and the Inuit thrived there the entire time and still do so today).

      

      As a matter of additional fact, it's far warmer now in Greenland than it has been in the past 10,000 years.

      

      Back to you.

5896. Jim Hunt at 22:40 PM on 3 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      Hi Nigel,
      
      Sales of electric cars worldwide are currently "supply constrained" rather than "demand constrained". In such circumstances surely advertising is a waste of money?
      
      Do you subscribe to the "conspiracy" theory of history, or the alternative "cock-up" theory?
      
      https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01615440.2017.1320616
      
      
      

5897. Jim Hunt at 22:33 PM on 3 June 2021
      Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain
      

      Joe @23,
      
      Since the Arctic is my pet hobby horse I'll second Eclectic's request.
      
      I assume you must know the drill? Links to authoritative sources to evidence for your claims would be nice to see, if such are available?
      
      "Where they settled then is not habitable today due to ice levels."?
      
      Wikipedia begs to differ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hvalsey_Church
      
      
      

5898. nigelj at 18:17 PM on 3 June 2021
      Ambitious action on climate change could be Biden’s ‘moon shot’
      

      The issue that has surprised me is that sales of electric cars have not seemed to grow as fast as the development wind and solar power. That's my impression but perhaps the data says otherwise.

      One thing holding back sales of electic cars may be the conspicuous lack of advertising. In our media in New Zealand there has been virtually no advertising, until perhaps the last two months we are seeing a sudden surge of advertisements. Don't know if its the same in America? It's possibly because the automobile companies have not really wanted to re-tool manufacturing plant and maintainance work and retrain staff, but it looks like they may be finally accepting the inevitable.

5899. Eclectic at 15:31 PM on 3 June 2021
      Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain
      

      Joe @23 , best if you give much more detail about what you mean.

      The Norse settlement history of Greenland is a complex multi-layered course of events.  Temperature played little part (the medieval warming was only about 0.3 degreesC above the background).  

      Social and geo-political changes were the main determinants of the settlement's ultimate failure.  All interesting.  But the late stage sea-ice increase [and we don't really know if it was particularly big] would likely have been a very minor "straw" on the camel's back, compared with all the other disincentives that the Greenland Norse settlements were facing.

5900. Joe Levesque at 14:22 PM on 3 June 2021
      Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain
      

      The historical Arctic sea ice reconstruction appears anomalous with the Viking settlements in Greenland In the 10th century.  Where they settled then is not habitable today due to ice levels. Anybody up to explain how this can be explained?

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