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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39, 2020

Posted on 30 September 2020 by doug_bostrom

Ghost forests grow in North Carolina as sea level rises

Lindsey Smart leads a team of researchers to publish findings on carbon loss from forests dying as sea level rise causes transition to salt marsh. From the abstract: 

Coastal forests sequester and store more carbon than their terrestrial counterparts but are at greater risk of conversion due to sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise converts freshwater-dependent coastal forests to more salt-tolerant marshes, leaving 'ghost forests' of standing dead trees behind. Although recent research has investigated the drivers and rates of coastal forest decline, the associated changes in carbon storage across large extents have not been quantified. We mapped ghost forest spread across coastal North Carolina, USA, using repeat Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, multi-temporal satellite imagery, and field measurements of aboveground biomass to quantify changes in aboveground carbon. Between 2001 and 2014, 15% (167 km2) of unmanaged public land in the region changed from coastal forest to transition-ghost forest characterized by salt-tolerant shrubs and herbaceous plants. Salinity and proximity to the estuarine shoreline were significant drivers of these changes. This conversion resulted in a net aboveground carbon decline of 0.13 ± 0.01 TgC. 

Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise, open access and free to read. 

"Related research"

Skeptical Science reader and commentator RedBaron aka Scott Strough has shepherded a research proposal to the point of launch via the scientific research crowd-funding platform experiment.com.  Strough intends to demonstrate and quantify results for a method to reverse soil carbon losses typically associated with agriculture— while still producing food from the soil in question. 

The project joins distinguished company. Even in normal times it's not easy to navigate experiment.com's extensive vetting process, one reason why the organization has propelled some excellent work over the years. Project authors work as hard for this funding as they would on a grant proposal submitted for more traditional funding, and during this year it's been especially difficult. In return the public gets a lot of research bang for not many bucks. If you find Strough's inquiry appealing, consider contributing to his project

The short version of Strough's proposal, as launched:

I am introducing a new organic no till methodology with perennial ground cover I have been developing for several years. It should gain significant benefits to soil carbon if it functions in a similar way to the wild ecosystems it was patterned after.

This fundraiser will help determine the absolute net rate of carbon sequestration in the soil, which is a key factor in determining if they can also be used as a tool for global warming mitigation, since most modern agriculture degrades Soil Organic Carbon.

I will be planting a small 1/2 acre research plot and measuring how much CO2 is removed from the atmosphere and sequestered long term in the soil by my methods, by directly sampling the soil and measuring SOC. That rate can then be used to extrapolate the AGW mitigation potential.

There are of course quite a few more details on the experiment page. 

115 articles

Physical science of global warming & effects

Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land are Driven by Local Thermodynamics
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090197

Observations of global warming & effects

Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2

Intensified burn severity in California’s northern coastal mountains by drier climatic condition
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba6af

Permafrost thaw couples slopes with downstream systems and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-218

Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba136

Reconstructing extreme climatic and geochemical conditions during the largest natural mangrove dieback on record
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-4707-2020

Nordic Seas Acidification
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-339

The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis: variability and trends
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-881

Phytoplankton dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0905-y

Multiscale changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau during 1980–2018 represented by reanalysis datasets and satellite observations
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031914

Vertical Land Motion from Present‐Day Deglaciation in the Wider Arctic
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088144

Rapid Local Urbanization around Most Meteorological Stations Explains the Observed Daily Asymmetric Warming Rates across China from 1985 to 2017
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0118.1

Changes of glacier facies on Hornsund glaciers (Svalbard) during the decade 2007–2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2020.112060

Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03391-1

Tornadoes in the USA are concentrating on fewer days, but their power dissipation is not
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03402-1

Accelerated rate of vegetation green‐up related to warming at northern high latitudes
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15322

Analysis of Spatial Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature in Iran over a 50‐Year Period
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6845

Spatiotemporal Freeze‐Thaw Variations over the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau 1981‐2017 from Reanalysis
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6849

Soil temperature change and its regional differences under different vegetation regions across China
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6847

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming

Evaluating stream CO2 outgassing via Drifting and Anchored flux chambers in a controlled flume experiment

Airborne mapping of the sub-ice platelet layer under fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-268

A dedicated flask sampling strategy developed for Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) stations based on CO2 and CO measurements and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) footprint modelling

A Remote Sensing Technique to Upscale Methane Emission Flux in a Subtropical Peatland
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006002

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects

Quantifying the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Spring Snow-Cover Decline Using the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-22-rc1

Towards understanding the pattern of glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia using regional climatic modelling
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020

The Impact of Increasing Stratospheric Radiative Damping on the QBO Period
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-925

Shift towards intense and widespread precipitation events over the United States by mid 21st century

Assessing Global and Regional Effects of Reconstructed Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Climate since 1950 Using a Coupled Land–Atmosphere–Ocean Model

How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models?

U.K. Climate Projections: Summer Daytime and Nighttime Urban Heat Island Changes in England’s Major Cities

Ocean Heat Storage in Response to Changing Ocean Circulation Processes
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1016.1

Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1012.1

Projection of weather potential for winter haze episodes in Beijing by 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.002

Evaluation and projection of snowfall changes in High Mountain Asia based on NASA’s NEX-GDDP high-resolution daily downscaled dataset
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba926

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02872-6

Wintertime radiative effects of black carbon (BC) over Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventoriesin CHIMERE
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-511

Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: a case study in the Himalaya
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3235-2020

Modelled sensitivity
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.05.003

Proglacial lakes control glacier geometry and behavior during recession
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088865

Simulating Observations of Southern Ocean Clouds and Implications for Climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10502322.1

Enabling Smart Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Precipitation Events with Machine Learning
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503409.1

A Comparison of Intra-Annual and Long-Term Trend Scaling of Extreme Precipitation with Temperature in a Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation

A comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 projections for precipitation to observational data: the case of Northeastern Iran
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03406-x

Regional climate model performance and application of bias corrections in simulating summer monsoon maximum temperature for agro-climatic zones in India
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03393-z

Convection‐permitting modelling improves simulated precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3921

Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba77f

Cryosphere & climate change

Towards understanding the pattern of glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia using regional climatic modelling
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020

Airborne mapping of the sub-ice platelet layer under fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-268

Permafrost thaw couples slopes with downstream systems and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-218

Glacier loss impacts riverine organic carbon transport to the ocean
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089804

Changes of glacier facies on Hornsund glaciers (Svalbard) during the decade 2007–2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2020.112060

Paleoclimate

The enigma of Oligocene climate and global surface temperature evolution
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2003914117

Ancient agriculture and climate change on the north coast of Peru
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017725117

The origin and diversification of pteropods precede past perturbations in the Earth’s carbon cycle
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920918117

Latitudinal response of storm activity to abrupt climate change during the last 6,500 years
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089859

Biology & global warming

Winter in a warming Arctic
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073395

Key rules of life and the fading cryosphere: impacts in alpine lakes and streams
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15362

A changing Amazon rainforest: Historical trends and future projections under post-Paris climate scenarios
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103328

Climate change disturbs wildlife microbiomes
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00923-5

Reconstructing extreme climatic and geochemical conditions during the largest natural mangrove dieback on record
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-4707-2020

Birds advancing lay dates with warming springs face greater risk of chick mortality
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009864117

The origin and diversification of pteropods precede past perturbations in the Earth’s carbon cycle
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920918117

Fast behavioral feedbacks make ecosystems sensitive to pace and not just magnitude of anthropogenic environmental change
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2003301117

Phytoplankton dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0905-y

Warming drives ecological community changes linked to host-associated microbiome dysbiosis
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0899-5

Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00919-1

Climatic responses of Pinus brutia along the Black Sea coast of Crimea and the Caucasus
DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125763

The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15358

Current and future impacts of drought and ozone stress on Northern Hemisphere forests
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15339

Transient benefits of climate change for a high‐Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15286

Accelerated rate of vegetation green‐up related to warming at northern high latitudes
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15322

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze‐tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus)
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15321

Stage‐dependent effects of river flow and temperature regimes on the growth dynamics of an apex predator
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15363

An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change

Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15359

Foraging deeply: Depth‐specific plant nitrogen uptake in response to climate‐induced N‐release and permafrost thaw in the High Arctic
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15306

Early development and metabolic rate of the sea louse Caligus rogercresseyi under different scenarios of temperature and pCO2

Turning up the heat: warming influences plankton biomass and spring phenology in subtropical waters characterized by extensive fish omnivory
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04758-x

Global analysis of fish growth rates shows weaker responses to temperature than metabolic predictions
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13189

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Attribution of the accelerating increase in atmospheric methane during 2010–2018 by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-964

Warming and ocean acidification may decrease estuarine dissolved organic carbon export to the ocean
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-335

Evaluating stream CO2 outgassing via Drifting and Anchored flux chambers in a controlled flume experiment

Net carbon ecosystem exchange during 24 years in the Sorø Beech Forest – relations to phenology and climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000889.2020.1822063

Glacier loss impacts riverine organic carbon transport to the ocean
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089804

A Remote Sensing Technique to Upscale Methane Emission Flux in a Subtropical Peatland
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006002

Reappraisal of the climate impacts of ozone‐depleting substances
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088295

Secondary forests offset less than 10% of deforestation‐mediated carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15352

A Bornean peat swamp forest is a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15332

Warming‐induced global soil carbon loss attenuated by downward carbon movement
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15370

Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba136

Coralline macroalgae contribution to ecological services of carbon storage in a disturbed seagrass meadow
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105156

The greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption, and heat emissions of global steam-electric power production: a generating unit level analysis and database
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba6ac

Drivers of CO 2 emissions in international aviation: the case of Japan
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e9b

Climate, snowmelt dynamics and atmospheric deposition interact to control dissolved organic carbon export from a northern forest stream over 26 years
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4e

CO 2 emissions from forest degradation in Brazilian Amazon

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7

Black carbon

Wintertime radiative effects of black carbon (BC) over Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventoriesin CHIMERE
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-511

Climate change communications & cognition

The development of climate security discourse in Japan
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-020-00863-1

Documenting climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00913-7

Agronomy & climate change Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

A carbon price floor in the reformed EU ETS: Design matters!
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111905

The Nonlinear Impacts of Global Warming on Regional Economic Production: An Empirical Analysis from China
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0029.1

Global climate damage in 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.008

Low-carbon transition in a coal-producing country: A labour market perspective
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111878

CAREC energy corridor: Opportunities, challenges, and IMPACT of regional energy trade integration on carbon emissions and energy access
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111427

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Evaluating development path changes using a novel climate action assessment framework in three municipalities in British Columbia, Canada
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.007

Political leadership on climate change: the role of health in Obama-era U.S. climate policies
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba8c3

The development of climate security discourse in Japan
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-020-00863-1

Climate change adaptation

Adaptation to the Climate Crisis: Opportunities for Food and Nutrition Security and Health in a Pacific Small Island State
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-19-0090.1

Increasing natural retention – Remedy for current climate change in urban area
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100695

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba97d

Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate [irony alert]

Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18531-4

Watershed communities’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change in the Himalayas
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02870-8

Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01698-3

Other

The 2020 Siberian Heat Wave
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6850

On the linkage between Rossby wave phase speed, atmospheric blocking and Arctic Amplification
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087796

Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y

The global environmental paw print of pet food
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102153

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Designing our sustainable energy future: A shock doctrine for energy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111914

‘Will the Paris Agreement protect us from hydro-meteorological extremes?’
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba869

The Y factor for Climate Change abatement – A method to rank options beyond abatement costs
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111894

 


Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,3733, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 
  • If you're interested in an article and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. Due to time constraints open access articles are identified by us via  imperfect machine analysis. Compared with Unpaywall statistics we successfully  identify roughly 2/3rds of open access articles. There's definitely gold left in the ground. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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