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Climate Hustle

New research, September 4-10, 2017

Posted on 15 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. State of the Climate in 2016 See also: A Look at 2016: Takeaway Points from the State of the Climate Supplement

2. The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers

"Emissions traced to these 90 carbon producers contributed ∼57% of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2, ∼42–50% of the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST), and ∼26–32% of global sea level (GSL) rise over the historical period and ∼43% (atmospheric CO2), ∼29–35% (GMST), and ∼11–14% (GSL) since 1980 (based on best-estimate parameters and accounting for uncertainty arising from the lack of data on aerosol forcings traced to producers)."

3. Optimal management of the flooding risk caused by the joint occurrence of extreme rainfall and high tide level in a coastal city

"Heavy rain is the main disaster-causing factor in inland areas, while high tide level is the main disaster-causing factor in island areas. For the area whose main disaster-causing factor is heavy rain, water storage projects could effectively reduce flooding. Meanwhile, pumps are economical choices for the area where tide level is the main disaster-causing factor."

4. Extreme tropical cyclone activities in the southern Pacific Ocean

"Between 1980 and 2016, the number of extreme cyclones did not show any tendency to increase."

5. Significant aerosol influence on the recent decadal decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

"Here, we show that past changes in sulphate aerosol emissions contributed approximately 60 % of the observed decreasing trends in TC genesis frequency in the southeastern WNP for 1992–2011, using multiple simulations by a global climate model."

6. Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

"Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature and changing global wetland area. We highlight that climate-change and wetland CH4 feedbacks to radiative forcing are an important component of climate change and should be represented in policies aiming to mitigate global warming below 2°C."

7. Recent climatic changes and wetland expansion turned Tibet into a net CH4 source

"The results showed that the drying up of wetlands from the 1980s to 1990s completely counteracted the rising CH4 emission rates (0.75 ± 0.18 and 0.77 ± 0.19 Tg CH4 year−1 in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively). However, recent precipitation-induced wetland expansion enhanced emissions to 0.96 ± 0.21 Tg CH4 year−1 in the 2000s, which exceeded the rate of CH4 uptake (0.74 ± 0.06 Tg CH4 year−1 in the 2000s)."

8. Increasing shortwave absorption over the Arctic Ocean is not balanced by trends in the Antarctic

"On the basis of a new, consistent, long-term observational satellite dataset we show that, despite the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Antarctic, absorption of solar shortwave radiation in the Southern Ocean poleward of 60° latitude is not decreasing. The observations hence show that the small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent does not compensate for the combined effect of retreating Arctic sea ice and changes in cloud cover, which both result in a total increase in solar shortwave energy deposited into the polar oceans."

9. Amplified summer warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s

"We identify a nonuniform warming pattern in summer around the mid-1990s over the Eurasian continent, with a predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia but much weaker warming over Central Asia. It is found that the nonuniform warming concurs with both the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the decadal change in the Silk Road Pattern (SRP), which is an upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent during summer."

10. Sensitivity of global warming to carbon emissions: effects of heat and carbon uptake in a suite of Earth system models

11. An Extreme Value Model for United States Hail Size

12. Application of a two-step approach for mapping ice thickness to various glacier types on Svalbard

13. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections

14. An Iberian climatology of solar radiation obtained from WRF regional climate simulations for 1950–2010 period

15. Deducing climatic elasticity to assess projected climate change impacts on streamflow change across China

16. GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways

17. Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

18. Salient differences in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific between 1998 and 2016

19. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

20. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

21. Investigation of temperature changes over India in association with meteorological parameters in a warming climate

22. Using remote sensing information to estimate snow hazard and extreme snow load in China

23. Heat waves in lowland Germany and their circulation-related conditions

24. Extreme reversals in successive winter season precipitation anomalies across the Western United States, 1895–2015

25. A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans

26. Changes in the Spatial Heterogeneity and Annual Distribution of Observed Precipitation across China

27. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

28. Dimming in Iran since the 2000s and the potential underlying causes

29. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

30. Estimation of the SST response to anthropogenic and external forcing, and its impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

31. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

Climate change impacts

32. The combined effects of ocean warming and acidification on shallow-water meiofaunal assemblages

"The hypothesis that increased temperature will increase meiofaunal abundance was not supported. The hypothesis that a reduced pH will reduce meiofaunal abundance and species richness was supported. The combination of future conditions of temperature and pH (19 °C and pCO2 of 1000 ppm) did not affect overall abundance but the structure of the nematode assemblage changed becoming dominated by a few opportunistic species."

33. Indicators of climate change adaptation from molecules to ecosystems - A special issue of Regional Environmental Change.

34. Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes

"High-producing counties (e.g., Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley) are the most vulnerable in absolute terms, while northern Sacramento Valley counties are the most vulnerable in relative terms, due to their reliance on heat-sensitive perennial crops."

35. The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia

"Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not."

36. Detection of climate change-driven trends in phytoplankton phenology

"We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid-latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~ 5 days per decade to 2100."

37. Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem

"We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations."

38. Spatiotemporal variations of the start of thermal growing season for grassland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2014

"More obvious advancing trends were found after 1980, which coincided with more rapid climate warming. The advancing trends weakened after 1998 when climate warming hiatus occurred."

39. Tree growth response of Fokienia hodginsii to recent climate warming and drought in southwest China

"Tree growth is significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlated with January–April mean temperature from AD 1961–1987, while correlations with precipitation are insignificant. In contrast, from 1988 to 2014, tree growth correlated negatively with mean temperature of previous summer and positively with precipitation of previous August–September. This indicated that the limiting factors for tree growth have changed under different climate conditions."

40. Quality-assured long-term satellite-based leaf area index product

41. Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34-year study of a temperate songbird

42. Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

43. The Influence of Temperature on Chytridiomycosis In Vivo

44. Extreme weather exposure and support for climate change adaptation

45. Tornado disaster impacts and management: learning from the 2016 tornado catastrophe in Jiangsu Province, China

46. Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

47. Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

48. Using Climate Models to Estimate Urban Vulnerability to Flash Floods

49. Impact of ocean acidification on the early development and escape behavior of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma)

50. Ice acidification, the effects of ocean acidification on sea ice microbial communities

51. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

52. Complex resource supply chains display higher resilience to simulated climate shocks

53. Staying cool or staying safe in a human-dominated landscape: which is more relevant for brown bears?

54. A linkage between flowering phenology and fruit-set success of alpine plant communities with reference to the seasonality and pollination effectiveness of bees and flies

Climate change mitigation

55. Responsible for what? Carbon producer CO2 contributions and the energy transition

"Judgments of moral responsibility should be informed by both scientific analysis and societal standards. Society distinguishes responsibilities into positive and negative, general and special, and backward-looking and forward-looking. Ekwurzel et al. in Clim Chang 2017 shows that 90 major carbon producers have contributed most of the atmospheric CO2 emissions. Once it became clear no later than the 1960s that continuing CO2 emissions would progressively undermine the climate, the major carbon producers could see that they were marketing harmful products. The simple and merely negative responsibility to “do no harm” required them to reduce that harm rapidly either by modifying the product in order to capture its dangerous emissions or by developing safe substitutes to perform the same function, that is, by developing non-carbon-based forms of energy. The seriousness of the harms brought by climate change made this responsibility especially compelling. Ceasing to contribute to harm includes ending exploration for additional fossil fuels. The half century of failure by corporate carbon producers to reduce the harms caused by their products now gives them additional responsibility to correct the damage done by their decades of neglect of the underlying negative responsibility. If major carbon producers also wish to fulfill the general responsibility to make more than a minimal positive social contribution, their distinctive capacities of political power, wealth, and expertise qualify them for leadership in the transition to an energy regime that would be safe for future generations to rely on."

56. Emissions embodied in global trade have plateaued due to structural changes in China

"After strong growth in the early 2000s, emissions exported from developing to developed countries plateaued and could have even decreased since 2007. These changes were mainly due to China: In 2002–2007, China’s exported emissions grew by 827 MtCO2, amounting to almost all the 892 MtCO2 total increase in emissions exported from developing to developed countries, while in 2007–2012, emissions exported from China decreased by 229 MtCO2, contributing to the total decrease of 172 MtCO2 exported from developing to developed countries."

57. Scientists’ views on economic growth versus the environment: a questionnaire survey among economists and non-economists

"The survey results indicate substantial disagreement across research fields on almost every posed question. Environmental problems are most frequently mentioned as a very important factor contributing to an end of economic growth. Furthermore, we find that researchers are more skeptical about growth in the context of a concrete problem like the compatibility with the 2 °C climate target than when considering environmental problems more generally. Many respondents suggest ideology, values and worldviews as important reasons for disagreement. This is supported by the statistical analysis, showing that researchers’ political orientation is consistently correlated with views on growth."

58. Energy production, economic growth and CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan

59. Redefining climate change inaction as temporal intergroup bias: Temporally adapted interventions for reducing prejudice may help elicit environmental protection

60. Renewable energy programmes in the South Pacific – Are these a solution to dependency?

61. How to shape climate risk policies after the Paris agreement? The importance of perceptions as a driver for climate risk management

62. Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?

63. Large soil organic carbon increase due to improved agronomic management in the North China Plain from 1980s to 2010s

64. Limiting climate change: what's most worth doing?

65. A multivariate causality analysis between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey

66. Seizing policy windows: Policy Influence of climate advocacy coalitions in Brazil, China, and India, 2000–2015

Other papers

67. Reconstructing Climate from Glaciers

"For example, glacier modeling has demonstrated that the near-ubiquitous global pattern of glacier retreat during the last few centuries resulted from a global-scale climate warming of ∼1°C, consistent with instrumental data and climate proxy records. Climate reconstructions from glaciers have also demonstrated that the tropics were colder at the Last Glacial Maximum than was originally inferred from sea surface temperature reconstructions."

68. Spatial Coverage of Monitoring Networks: A Climate Observing System Simulation Experiment

69. How to reduce long-term drift in present-day and deep-time simulations?

70. An overview of European efforts in generating climate data records

71. Aerosol Effects on Climate via Mixed-Phase and Ice Clouds

72. Plant Evolution and Climate Over Geological Timescales

73. Temporal–spatial variability of atmospheric and hydrological natural disasters during recent 500 years in Inner Mongolia, China

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. Hate to be a bother, but could someone let me know about this paper: 

    Response of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Structure to Global Warming in a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0068.1

    Yohei Yamada et al

    I don't have access past the abstract, but it seems to be predicting fewer tropical cyclones as a result of warming? 

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  2. This is a fairly common conclusion. Frequency may diminish, intensity of the stronger storms may increase.

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  3. Eg, from this 2010 paper:

    The results support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report; reduction in global frequency but increase in more intense TCs.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL042518/full

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  4. Regarding aerosols and decreased cyclone activity research, as I have said before, one can cool Earth and especially the hurricane region by evaporation by using floating spray mist pumps operated by wave motion. Scientists once believed that evaporation could even warm Earth because of increased water vapour (a greenhouse gas), but when more evaporation was fed into climate models it showed that with increased low level clouds, from increased evaporation, the Earth cools with evaporation - see some of the sites that talk about this ( https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110914161729.htm for example). Mist spray over the ocean (which happens when the wind blows hard), from mist spray generators, would prevent solar energy from entering the ocean and would cool by evaporative fine mist cooling. With cooler ocean hurricanes will not form so easily.

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  5. Thanks, barry!

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