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Climate Hustle

New research, June 4-10, 2018

Posted on 15 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming (open access)

"The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1.5°C target to be adopted, but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent poverty growth would be required."

Short-term effect of tropospheric ozone on daily mortality in Spain

Prediction of mortality resulted from NO2 concentration in Tehran by Air Q+ software and artificial neural network

Indicators of climate change in agricultural systems (open access)

Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios (open access)

The role of scientific expertise in local adaptation to projected sea level rise (open access)

Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050 (open access)

Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review

Influence of season and climatic variables on testicular cytology, semen quality and melatonin concentrations in crossbred bucks reared under subtropical climate

Strategic adaptation pathway planning to manage sea-level rise and changing coastal flood risk

Predicting shifting sustainability trade‐offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change

Biosphere

Coastal ecosystems on a tipping point: Global warming and parasitism combine to alter community structure and function

"Under present temperature (17°C) and level of parasitism, the parasite had little impact on the host community. However, elevating the temperature to 21°C in the presence of parasites induced massive structural changes: amphipod abundances decreased species‐specifically, affecting epibenthic species but leaving infaunal species largely untouched. In effect, species diversity dropped significantly. In contrast, four degree higher temperatures in the absence of parasitism had limited influence on the amphipod community."

Recovery of Ecosystem Carbon and Energy Fluxes From the 2003 Drought in Europe and the 2012 Drought in the United States

Characteristics of vegetation activity and its responses to climate change in desert/grassland biome transition zones in the last 30 years based on GIMMS3g

Ecosystem structure, functioning and stability under climate change and grazing in grasslands: current status and future prospects

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate (open access)

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long‐term climate change on a poleward range shift

Effects of climate legacies on above‐ and belowground community assembly

Large‐scale prerain vegetation green‐up across Africa

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition (open access)

Other impacts

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate‐Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Climate change mitigation

Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5 °C–trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal (open access)

Climate change communication

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation? (open acces)

Being Skeptical? Exploring Far-Right Climate-Change Communication in Germany

Emission savings

Remote assessment of extracted volumes and greenhouse gases from tropical timber harvest (open access)

Environmental impact of meal service catering for dependent senior citizens in Danish municipalities (open access)

Energy production

Why go green? Discourse analysis of motivations for Thailand's oil and gas companies to invest in renewable energy

Assessing the evolution of power sector carbon intensity in the United States (open access)

Potential of solar energy in Iran for carbon dioxide mitigation

Climate Policy

India in 2 °C and well below 2 °C worlds: Opportunities and challenges

Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations, agency and influence (open access)

Climate change

Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?

Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere

Regional and Seasonal Characteristics of the Recent Expansion of the Tropics

On the need for regional climate information over Africa under varying levels of global warming (open access)

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution (open access)

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming (open access)

Diversity in global patterns of observed precipitation variability and change on river basin scales

Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C (open access)

"Specifically, we report a robust shortening of the rainy season for all of tropical Africa as well as north-east Brazil. About 27% of West Africa is projected to experience robust changes in the rainy season length with a mean shortening of about 7 days under 1.5 °C."

Trends in temperature extremes and their association with circulation patterns in China during 1961–2015

Developing a 1 km resolution daily air temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background (open access)

Extreme events

Predictability of the European heat and cold waves (open access)

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds

Forcings and feedbacks

Radiative Feedbacks From Stochastic Variability in Surface Temperature and Radiative Imbalance

A test of emergent constraints on cloud feedback and climate sensitivity using a calibrated single-model ensemble

Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery (open access)

Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products (open access)

Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes (open access)

Cryosphere

Spatial and temporal distributions of surface mass balance between Concordia and Vostok stations, Antarctica, from combined radar and ice core data: first results and detailed error analysis (open access)

Decadal variability of Great Lakes ice cover in response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017 (open access)

Snow depth on Arctic sea ice from historical in situ data (open access)

Contributions of Ice Thickness to the Atmospheric Response From Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The Unprecedented 2016–2017 Arctic Sea Ice Growth Season: The Crucial Role of Atmospheric Rivers and Longwave Fluxes

Multi-decadal mass balance series of three Kyrgyz glaciers inferred from modelling constrained with repeated snow line observations (open access)

Hydrothermal variations in soils resulting from the freezing and thawing processes in the active layer of an alpine grassland in the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Dynamic Response of a High Arctic Glacier to Melt and Runoff Variations

Reflective properties of melt ponds on sea ice (open access)

Hydrosphere 

Magnitude and robustness associated with the climate change impacts on global hydrological variables for transient and stabilized climate states (open access)

Relative Sea Level, Tides, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor From 1825 to 2018

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Local and Remote Responses of Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports to Climate Forcing: Compensation versus Collaboration

Carbon cycle

Increasing Methane Emissions From Natural Land Ecosystems due to Sea‐Level Rise

Temperature response of permafrost soil carbon is attenuated by mineral protection

Toward understanding the contribution of waterbodies to the methane emissions of a permafrost landscape on a regional scale—A case study from the Mackenzie Delta, Canada

Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink (open access)

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle (open access)

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle (open access)

 

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Comments

Comments 1 to 8:

  1. Other research: Antarctic ice is melting three times as fast as a decade ago.  This is obviously very concerning. What are implications for sea level rise by 2100? Has anyone calculated this? 

    I find the list of research above very comprehensive, but in a confusing order. Wouldn't it make more sense to order it science first, then human impacts, then mitigation?

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  2. In their Paper, Hansen et al 2016 note that . . . . ‘sea level reached +6.9 m in the Eemian, a time that we have concluded was probably no more than a few tenths of a degree warmer than to-day’. Mean global temperature is predicted to be well in excess of the Eemian by 2100.

    While the Paper does specify the magnitude of sea level rise likely by 2100, it can be argued that, given that CO2/CH4 concentrations in the atmosphere already exceed by 40%/267% the levels present during the Eemian thermal meximum, sea level rise in excess of the level then reached is at least possible by 2100.

    You may also be interested in this video in which Dr Hansen discusses the work embodied in Hansen et al 2016. Based on decadal doubling of ice mass loss during the 21st century, I estimate SLR by 2100 would exceed 6 metres. This view seems to be supported by recent research undertaken by the IMBIE Team and published on 12 June 18 in Nature.

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  3. Correction:  The 2nd para should begin by saying 'While the Paper does not specify the magnitude ...

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  4. Nigelj, I change the order of the papers weekly so that each subsection gets the "headline section" once in three weeks.

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  5. I wonder if that is indeed true - that the poorest will suffer the most.  Yes, the poor in the slums and favelas of the world will likely be in dire straights but the bigger they are the harder they fall.  If sea level rise overcomes the cities of the world that have been placed where rivers meet the sea, the economic strain on these countries will be extreem.  We have seen how poorly even a very rich country like the USA coped with Katrina.  Multiply that an order of magnitude or two and the highly over-extended economies of such countries may well collapse.

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  6. 1 Nigel

    Depends if this is part of an exponential curve or just a blip in a linear curve.  (can we call a linear graph a curve.  Probably).  A few more years should clarify this.  If each decade we tripple the melting then we raise 1.03 to the eighth power to get the melting by the end of the century and integrate under the curve to see how much total water has entered the oceans.  Not a pretty picture.

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  7. Apologies.  I must have been having a mathematical melt down.  The story is more like this.  If we are indeed trebbling the melt rate every decade and if this is truly an exponential curve then it means that the melt rate is increasing by about 11.6% each year (1.116 raised to the tenth power equals 2.997).  You then have to raise 1.116 to the eighty second power (number of years remaining in the century)  to see what the melt rate will be at the end of this century.  Clearly a ridiculous answer (I hope).  I think we will find that after a couple of more decades, we won't see a trippling each decade from the previous decade.  It does suggest, though, that we are in for far more than 3.5mm per year for the rest of the century.

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  8. It's hard for me to see exponential rise in melting of the antarctic, like a doubling or tripling per decade, given most climate trends are following more of a quadratic trend. But I agree its going to be far more than 3.5mm per year, and I think multi metre sea level rise by 2100 is a real possibility.

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