Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2023

Posted on 21 September 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

At our roots Skeptical Science is about cognition of the results of climate science research in the minds of the entire human population. Ideally we'd be perfectly communicating understanding of Earth's climate, and perfectly understood. We can only approximate that, but hopefully converging closer to perfection. With the passage of time and a lot of effort on the part of researchers working on how our species thinks, we can inch forward— if we pay attention. With that in mind,  two papers in this week's trawl land very close to our home. Each sports results important to climate science communicators but differing in paths and challenges to practical applicability.

Working the plainly visual level and offering obvious cues for better day-day information transfer reliability are Steph Courtney and Karen McNeal, reporting via the Geological Society of America's publication Geosphere. Seeing is believing: Climate change graph design and user judgments of credibility, usability, and risk seeks to better understand, demonstrate and improve how consumers absorb, process and cement information obtained from graphs. The authors hybridize "classic" cognitive survey techniques with eye-tracking data collection— a method well-suited for the medium under assessment. Courtney & McNeal firmly ground their research objective, from a launching point constructed on a review of past work— a useful feature for anybody seeking a foothold on the topic at hand. Takeaway for climate communicators: in a world of busy lives, public attention is limited. We can use everybody's time more productively by best knowing how to communicate through the uniquely powerful medium of graphs. One hopes the IPCC itself will integrate what this paper offers.

A proxy measure for the power of consensus messaging is the intense effort expended by vested interests in legacy energy supply systems on corroding public perception of scientific consensus on climate change. It's arguable that flaks working on behalf of fossilized clients started early with a gut instinct on this matter, but science has caught up; perception of scientific consensus appears to have genuine predictive effects on attitudes and beliefs about climate change. In a familiar scenario, further investigation reveals unexplained failure modes for consensus messaging. Of course, there will be reasons for that.  Consensus messaging in climate change communication: Metacognition as moderator variable in the gateway belief model explores consensus messaging and where it leads to unknowns, leading to key research questions: is the efficacy of consensus messaging dependent on contextual conditions and if so, how? Publishing in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, investigators Said, Frauhammer and Huff try to answer these questions via experimentation. After their conclusions paths will diverge; for some of us reading this paper may alter communications tactics while for others the paper will lead to "further research." Application looks to need careful consideration.

Moving on: last week we featured a commentary suggesting we do a rethink on our 1.5°C "acceptable" limit on warming Earth's climate system. That reflection hinged in large part on direct air carbon capture and storage. Continuing that theme but with a different technological bent and publishing in Earth's Future now come Abbott et al., with their own commentary Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene. The authors' goal can be summed as "wouldn't it be best if we stuck to what we know" when it comes to climate, taking us a step further than last week's Breyer et al. The team explore economic feasibility of accelerating transition to renewable (permanent) energy supplies, finding no showstoppers but the need for intense cooperation, and deep consideration of old economic habits. 

This one's been making the rounds: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Richardson et al., Science Advances. We've seen a lot of it in the popular press, which is not a matter of chance; AAAS publications maintain an active press representation effort, this paper happens to have "pop," fixes the attention of newsdesks and so et voila, we see it everywhere. Bear in mind: no quibbles with the paper itself; we're reflecting on the delusion of Patrick Brown we covered last week and his obsession with high-profile journals. See the below routine list for "the average" weekly results in climate research— simultaneously horrific and circumspectly parsimonious. In any case, at the end of a long chain of custody not all popular literature actually connects readers to primary sources— if noticed at all by journalists— and primary souces of all stripes are our focus with New Research, even when there's no press office involved. So here you go. 

The military: leaving aside all the excrescences of implementing blunt instruments at scale in a corrupt world of human nature, military force is the tool we pull from our box when geopolitical reason fails, locking pliers where we'd prefer to employ box-end wrenches— destructive, often used in haste but occasionally vitally effective. This week's exceptionally rich government/NGO section features Barriers to Force Projection: Climate Change and Aerial Forward Operability, a look at how tools of last resort will fare in a non-stationary climate. Deny all we want but the observational record and physics don't lie: the range and impact of some military hardware is being affected by warming air temperature, and specs will shrink further in the future. Authors Kaitlyn Benton and Timothy Leslie explore this using a high logistical value piece of military aviation hardware, not a weapon but a component of supply chains. They report in Air and Space Force Review, a publication of the US Air Force's Air University. Here's the fulcrum of their work:

As the most flexible transport aircraft in the US Air Force fleet, the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III is an effective case study for such problems likely to be faced across the service. This study converts climate-warming projection data from 2020–2099 to measures of density altitude—“pressure altitude corrected for nonstandard temperature variations”—and assesses the impacts of increasing density altitude based on a set of mathematically approximated thresholds specific to the C-17 The density altitude thresholds provide metrics for quantifying regional performance degradation of the C-17 due to global warming.

Not a fan of the worst of human nature and inevitable mangling of people and things needed when we encounter dictators stuck up trees they chose to climb, etc.? The same problems will affect search and rescue and every other aviation ambition we may harbor. Thanks to it being founded on basic aerodynamics, this paper neatly maps to myriad contexts; it's very good value indeed. 

132 articles in 55 journals by 718 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021, Spencer & Christy, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04634-7

Human activities further amplify the cooling effect of vegetation greening in Chinese drylands, Zhu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109703

Identifying the Impacts of Sea Ice Variability on the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of West Antarctica, Kromer & Trusel, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104436

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103951

Influence of synoptic weather on aerosol variability over East Asia: Present and future, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107023

Mechanisms for Abrupt Summertime Circumpolar Surface Warming in the Southern Ocean, Wilson et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0501.1

The Dependence of Climate Sensitivity on the Meridional Distribution of Radiative Forcing, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105492

Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing, He et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-023-06489-4

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6

Observations of climate change, effects

Extreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Compounding influence of atmospheric rivers and föhn conditions, Lu et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4578

Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China, Yao et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4

Intensification of Arabian Sea cyclone genesis potential and its association with Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern, Vidya et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00476-2

Record low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state, Purich & Doddridge, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00961-9

Relationship between the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the summer extreme high temperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China, Yang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101683

The Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclolysis in the Western North Pacific, Meng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0511.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Animal-borne sensors as a biologically informed lens on a changing climate, Ellis-Soto et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01781-7

Detecting Extreme Temperature Events Using Gaussian Mixture Models, Paçal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038906

Optimal Fingerprinting with Estimating Equations, Ma et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0681.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Deoxygenation of temperate rivers, Blaszczak, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01792-4

Emerging extreme heat conditions as part of the new climate normal, Zittis et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04605-y

Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving, Thomas et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102101

Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models, Muis et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003479

Heatwave Characteristics in the Recent Climate and at Different Global Warming Levels: A Multimodel Analysis at the Global Scale, Al?Yaari et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003301

Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data, Chaubey & Mall, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003556

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projected heat wave increasing trends over China based on combined dynamical and multiple statistical downscaling methods, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.001

Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios, Lhotka et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003557

The Response of Extratropical Cyclone Propagation in the Northern Hemisphere to Global Warming, Crawford et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0082.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Fingerprinting Low-Frequency Last Millennium Temperature Variability in Forced and Unforced Climate Models, Cleveland Stout et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0810.1

Identifying climate model structural inconsistencies allows for tight constraint of aerosol radiative forcing, Regayre et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-8749-2023

Performance of regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core at simulating precipitation extremes in China, Qin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8257

Understanding the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar overturning in different resolution versions of HadGEM3-GC3.1, Petit et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc019672

Cryosphere & climate change

CRYO, Gomez, Manual of Operating Room Techniques Open Access 10.5005/jp/books/11974_26

Inventory of glaciers and perennial snowfields of the conterminous USA, Fountain et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-4077-2023

Sea level & climate change

Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, Tarui et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03602-4

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Carbon isotope chemostratigraphy, geochemistry, and biostratigraphy of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, deepwater Wilcox Group, Gulf of Mexico (USA), Sharman et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-1743-2023

Climate change and long-term human behaviour in the Neotropics: an archaeological view from the Global South, Scheinsohn et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0403

Pre-industrial Holocene glacier variability in the tropical Andes as context for anthropogenically driven ice retreat, Stansell et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104242

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change, Holzmann et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.14303

Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change, Davies et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06731

Changing climate and reorganized species interactions modify community responses to climate variability, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2218501120

Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon, Leão et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15887

Climate change causes the displacement and shrinking of the optimal habitats of nectar-producing species of Nepeta in Iran, Khajoei Nasab et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04629-4

Drivers and dynamics of foliar senescence in temperate deciduous forest trees at their southern limit of distribution in Europe, Zuccarini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109716

Environmentally robust cis-regulatory changes underlie rapid climatic adaptation, Ballinger et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2214614120

Facing lethal temperatures: Heat-shock response in desert and temperate ants, Araujo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10438

Impact of climate change on potential distribution and altitudinal shift of critically endangered Amentotaxus assamica D.K. Ferguson in Arunachal Pradesh Himalaya, India, Sarma et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04628-5

Increasing winter temperatures explain body size decrease in wintering bird populations of Northern Europe—But response patterns vary along the spatioclimatic gradient, Bosco et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13754

Marine biodiversity exposed to prolonged and intense subsurface heatwaves, Fragkopoulou et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01790-6

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming, Boyd et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10540

Protected areas do already act as steppingstones for species responding to climate change, Gillingham & Thomas, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16941

Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world, Rodman et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16939

Shading contributes to Sphagnum decline in response to warming, Norby et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10542

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Air-Sea CO2 Fluxes Localized by Topography in a Southern Ocean Channel, Youngs et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104802

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Human Activity Coupled With Climate Change Strengthens the Role of Lakes as an Active Pipe of Dissolved Organic Matter, Du et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003412

Leveraging research infrastructure co-location to evaluate constraints on terrestrial carbon cycling in northern European forests, Futter et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01930-4

Sea animal colonies enhance carbonyl sulfide emissions from coastal Antarctic tundra, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00990-4

Soil organic carbon is buffered by grass inputs regardless of woody cover or fire frequency in an African savanna, Coetsee et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14199

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spatio-temporal variations of atmospheric methane and its response to climate on the Tibetan Plateau from 2010 to 2022, Wei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120088

The effects of agricultural development on CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the most populous developing countries, Karimi Alavijeh et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02567-1

The overlooked contribution of trees outside forests to tree cover and woody biomass across Europe, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh4097

Urban Sewage Canal sediment in Kolkata Metropolis (India) is a potent producer of greenhouse gases, Majumdar et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101688

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

How to shape communication for CO2-derived insulation boards considering different accepter profiles, Simons et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03683-2

Integrating carbon sequestration and biodiversity impacts in forested ecosystems: Concepts, cases, and policies, Alam et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01931-3

The role of BECCS technology in achieving carbon neutrality: evidences from China’ coal power sector, Zhang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03842-5

Decarbonization

Application of Biomass-Based Nanomaterials in Energy, Yang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300141

Eco-design requisites for solar desaltification still augmented evacuated annular tube collectors with parabolic concentrator: an optimum-environ-economic viability, Singh & Samsher, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02518-w

Energy storage solutions to decarbonize electricity through enhanced capacity expansion modelling, Levin et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01340-6

Forgone summertime comfort as a function of avoided electricity use, Kwon et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113813

High thermoelectric performance in metallic NiAu alloys via interband scattering, Garmroudi et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adj1611

Optimal selection of time windows for preventive maintenance of offshore wind farms subject to wake losses, Zhang et al., Wind Energy Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2815

Geoengineering climate

Stability of Efficient International Agreements on Solar Geoengineering, Bakalova & Belaia, Environmental and Resource Economics 10.1007/s10640-023-00807-0

Climate change communications & cognition

Consensus messaging in climate change communication: Metacognition as moderator variable in the gateway belief model, Said et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102128

Energy Citizens “Just Like You”? Public Relations Campaigning by the Climate Change Counter-movement, Sassan et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2023.2255388

Is social media more conducive to climate change communication behavior? The mediating role of risk perception and environmental values, Wu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03870-1

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate, Hoyer et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0402

Seeing is believing: Climate change graph design and user judgments of credibility, usability, and risk, Courtney & McNeal McNeal McNeal, Geosphere Open Access pdf 10.1130/ges02517.1

Social identities, climate change denial, and efficacy beliefs as predictors of pro-environmental engagements, Kiral Ucar et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102144

‘Listen to me!’: Young people’s experiences of talking about emotional impacts of climate change, Jones & Lucas Lucas , Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102744

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adaptive irrigation management by Balinese farmers reduces greenhouse gas emissions and increases rice yields, Lansing et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0400

An assessment of changes and variability of climate impact on cotton production yield over Southern Punjab, Pakistan, Shahzadi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03867-w

Diversification from field to landscape to adapt Mediterranean rainfed agriculture to water scarcity in climate change context, Molénat et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101336

Myth or Reality? The Digitalization of Climate-Smart Agriculture (DCSA) Practices in Smallholding Agriculture in the Bono East Region of Ghana, Graf, Ancient Religions Open Access 10.2307/j.ctv1khdr49.10

Operationalizing cultural adaptation to climate change: contemporary examples from United States agriculture, Waring et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0397

Potential for climate change driven spatial mismatches between apple crops and their wild bee pollinators at a continental scale, Marshall et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102742

Small-scale farmer responses to the double exposure of climate change and market integration, Kramer & Hackman, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0396

Temperature variability during the growing season affects the quality attributes of table grapes in Pothwar—insight from a new emerging viticulture region in South Asia, Rafique et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02548-7

The effects of agricultural development on CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the most populous developing countries, Karimi Alavijeh et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02567-1

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Assessing the future groundwater vulnerability of an urban region under variable climatic and land use conditions, Lakshminarayanan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101691

Building water resilience in the face of cascading wildfire risks, Belongia et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf9534

Estimating runoff from pan-Arctic drainage basins for 2002–2019 using an improved runoff-storage relationship, Yi et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113816

Evaluation of long-term changes in water balances in the Nepal Himalayas, Talchabhadel & Chhetri, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04646-3

Hydroclimatic trend analysis and projection in Africa tropical urban regions: Cases of Lusaka, Zambia and Kigali, Rwanda, Iradukunda et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101680

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Trend and variability analysis in rainfall and temperature records over Van Province, Türkiye, Esit et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04644-5

Trends and variability in precipitation across Turkey: a multimethod statistical analysis, Yetik et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000287

Climate change economics

Climate change adaptation and the back of the invisible hand, Clark Barrett & Armstrong, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0406

Climate change and the problem of social cost, , PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide, Wang & Teng, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01803-4

Does ICT change the relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions? Evidence for RCEP countries, Yu & Du, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03879-6

Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects, Segovia-Martin et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0405

Global network analysis of links between business, climate change, and sustainability and setting up the interconnections framework, Karmaoui et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03883-w

Politics in the energy-security nexus: an epistemic governance approach to the zero-carbon energy transition in Finland, Estonia, and Norway, Sivonen & Kivimaa, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2023.2251873

Reality check and determinants of carbon emission flow in the context of global trade: Indonesia being the centric studied country, Xu & Yao, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02562-6

The dynamic role of green technological innovation, financial development and trade openness on urban environmental degradation in China: Fresh insights from carbon efficiency, Ozkan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101679

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A net-zero target compels a backward induction approach to climate policy, Dolphin et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01798-y

A step towards a just transition in the EU: Conclusions of a regression-based energy inequality decomposition, Kashour, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113816

Air quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy, Picciano et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41131-x

Building a just transition in asia-pacific: Four strategies for reducing fossil fuel dependence and investing in clean energy, McCauley & Pettigrew, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113808

Building policy synergies: A case of community resilience, climate change and community empowerment policies in Scotland, Carmen et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103579

Climate mitigation potentials of teleworking are sensitive to changes in lifestyle and workplace rather than ICT usage, Tao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2304099120

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions, Achakulwisut et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) as a governance instrument – accounting for politics, negotiation progress, and related mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, Leiter, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2252312

South Africa's energy policy: Prioritizing competition and climate change for decarbonisation, Msimango et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113815

The geopolitics of expertise at the science-policy interface, Duarte & Miguel, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103575

The Road to a Low Emission Society: Costs of Interacting Climate Regulations, Bye et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00804-3

What is state capacity and how does it matter for energy transition?, Singh, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113799

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Application of a concrete thermal pile in cooling the warming permafrost under climate change, Shang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.002

Climate change impacts on future residential electricity consumption and energy burden: A case study in Phoenix, Arizona, Jones et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113811

Climate micro-mobilities as adaptation practice in the Pacific: the case of Samoa, Latai-Niusulu et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0392

Minority-group incubators and majority-group reservoirs support the diffusion of climate change adaptations, Turner et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2022.0401

Real options analysis for valuation of climate adaptation pathways with application to transit infrastructure, Martello et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.14218

Socio-economic predictors of Inuit hunting choices and their implications for climate change adaptation, Hillemann et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0395

Understanding constraints to adaptation using a community-centred toolkit, Buffa et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0391

Climate change impacts on human culture

The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People, Magargal et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0394

Other

A 6-year cycle in the Earth system, Pfeffer et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104245

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene, Abbott et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003639

Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture, Pisor et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2022.0390

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Richardson et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

Global stocktake and the SDG midterm review as opportunities for integration, Hermwille et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01813-2

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Is the World Bank giving billions of trade finance to fossil fuels?, Heike Mainhardt, Urgewald

In 2022, an estimated $3.7 billion in World Bank trade finance went to oil & gas. This would more than triple the current annual level of fossil fuel finance attributed to the World Bank and cast serious doubts on the Bank's claims of alignment with the Paris Climate Agreement.

Planet Wreckers: How 20 Countries’ Oil and Gas Extraction Plans Risk Locking in Climate Chaos, Romain Ioualalen and Kelly Trout, Oil Change International

The authors examine the climate Implications of Secretary General Guterres call for countries to show up to the Climate Ambition Summit with commitments to stop oil and gas expansion and plan a phase-out of existing production in line with the 1.5°C limit. Only 20 Planet Wrecker countries are responsible for nearly 90 percent of the carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells planned between 2023 and 2050. If these 20 Planet Wreckers said “no” to their planned new oil and gas production, as the UN Secretary-General is urging them to, 173 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon pollution would be kept in the ground. That is equivalent to the lifetime pollution of nearly 1,100 new coal plants, or more than 30 years of annual U.S. carbon emissions. Oil and gas expansion by the 20 Planet Wrecker countries would make it impossible to hold temperature rise to 1.5°C. Even extracting just the fossil fuels from existing sites globally would result in 140 percent more carbon pollution than the allowed budget for 1.5°C. If these countries proceed with their new extraction, committed carbon pollution will be 190 percent over the 1.5°C budget, risking locking in more than a dangerous 2°C of warming.

United in Science 2023. Sustainable development edition, Hermanson et al., World Meteorological Organization

The authors highlight the increasing effects of climate change and extreme weather events, along with other interlinking global challenges, which are setting back development gains and threatening the full achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. The authors recommend closing the gaps in weather, climate, and hydrological observations and data; advancing research, and expanding access to science, technology, and innovation; strengthening scientific capacity and skills through education and training; embracing local, contextual, and Indigenous knowledge; and uniting diverse stakeholders to boost the impact of science.

Electricity Sector Emissions Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act: Assessment of projected CO2 emission reductions from changes in electricity generation and use, Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Atmospheric Protection

The authors present results from state-of-the-art multi-sector and electric sector models to assess how the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRS) provisions reduce CO2 emissions. They focus on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because the vast majority of direct electric sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are from fossil fuel combustion and the increased use of clean electricity primarily offsets fossil fuel use in end-use sectors. The authors include the projected reductions in CO2 emissions due to the IRA provisions represented in the models. Emissions projections are modeled in an “IRA scenario” that incorporates the effects of the IRA incentives and these are compared to projections in a “No IRA scenario.” Both scenarios incorporate other state and federal policies finalized prior to the IRA enactment.

Guide to backup power options for resilient households, University of New South Wales-Sydney

With the increased incidence of fires, floods, and severe weather events, it is important that households understand their options and needs when it comes to ensuring electricity supply, especially critical appliances. The authors draw on the experience of New South Wales householders who have relied on alternative power sources in a blackout to compile this guide to some of the backup power options available. The authors focus on increasing energy resilience and particularly electricity resilience of individual households through the use of Distributed Energy Resources.

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants, Downing et al,, Department of Energy

Liftoff reports describe the market opportunity, current challenges, and potential solutions for the commercialization of interdependent clean energy technologies. publication. The authors provide a foundational understanding of virtual power plants' value proposition and the associated business models and technology in use today.

Exporting Carbon. Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of U.S. Fossil Fuel Exports, Jeremy Symons, Symons Public Affairs

There are three primary reasons why the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of fossil fuel exports should be normalized as a standard component of U.S. GHG assessments and forecasts. First, every tool in the toolbox is needed to combat climate change, and acknowledging America’s role in exporting carbon opens the door to additional opportunities for action. It makes little difference to the atmosphere where emissions and emission reductions occur around the world. Second, the scale of U.S. GHG exports has become far too large to be kept out of sight from policymakers. It should be the goal of emissions inventories and forecasts to shine the most sunlight possible on where we are heading. Having good data on the GHG footprint of exports does not prevent anyone from reaching the verdict that exports are not important or should be heavily discounted. But that verdict should be a fully informed policy decision rather than obscured by sanitized data. Third, the shift to global net-zero emissions goals fundamentally challenges prior assumptions that supply policies, including those affecting exports, are not important. As the International Energy Agency and IPCC have both concluded, achieving a net-zero pathway will require actions to guard against locking in new sources of carbon emissions that will compete with cleaner energy and slow the transition to clean energy.

Barriers to Force Projection Climate Change and Aerial Forward Operability, Kaitlyn Benton and Timothy Leslie, Air and Space Operations Review

While US national security and military strategy documents acknowledge climate change will have increasing effects on US military operations alone and with Allies and partners, the specific implications for platforms remain understudied. An analysis of the projected effects of rising temperatures worldwide to 2099 on density altitude and its specific impacts for the C-17 Globemaster, provides insights into developing courses of action to mitigate the certain reduction of logistics capabilities.

Clean Jobs America 2023, E2

The authors provide an analysis of U.S. clean energy employment. They include jobs in solar energy, wind energy, combined heat and power, bioenergy, non-woody biomass, low-impact hydropower, geothermal, electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, hydrogen and fuel-cell vehicles, clean energy storage, smart grid, microgrid, grid modernization, advanced biofuels, and energy efficiency including ENERGY STAR and high-efficiency appliances, efficient lighting, HVAC, renewable heating and cooling, and advanced building materials. The clean energy occupations covered span economic sectors including agriculture, utilities, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, professional services, and other services.

Out of Control: The Deadly Impact of Coal Plant Pollution, Daniel Prull,, Sierra Club

Soot pollution kills. Soot, also known as particulate matter, is a deadly mix of metals, organic chemicals, and acidic substances released into the air we breathe every time we burn fossil fuels. Every year, up to 300,000 lives are cut short because of soot pollution–but it doesn’t have to be this way. To slash soot pollution and save lives a transition is needed to 100 percent clean, renewable energy. By shutting down aging, expensive, and dirty coal plants and replacing them with cheaper, cleaner renewable energy, thousands of lives can be saved every year while bringing good-paying jobs and investments to communities that need them most. The author dives into the data to show who bears the greatest burden of soot pollution in the United States, which power plants and companies are most responsible, and what President Biden can do to save lives and protect the right to clean air.

How the Finance Flows: The Banks Fuelling the Climate Crisis, Actionaid International

The authors track financial flows from banks to fossil fuels and industrial agriculture in the 134 countries of the Global South. Despite global banks’ public declarations that they are addressing climate change, the scale of their continued fossil fuel and industrial agriculture financing are staggering; on average, an astounding 20 times more finance into the major causes of climate change than governments in the Global South are receiving as funding for climate solutions. The banks fuelling the climate crisis show that bank financing provided to the fossil fuel industry in the Global South reached an estimated US$3.2 trillion in the seven years since the Paris Agreement on Climate Change was adopted, with US$370 billion provided to the largest industrial agriculture companies operating in the Global South. The top banks from each region funding fossil fuels and industrial agriculture in the Global South were as follows. In Europe: HSBC, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Barclays. In the Americas: Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America. In Asia: the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China CITIC Bank, Bank of China, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Homeland Threat Assessment 2024, Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Homeland Security

The authors focus on the most direct, pressing threats to our Homeland during the next year. The assessment is organized around the Department of Homeland Security’s missions that most closely align or apply to these threats—public safety, border and immigration, critical infrastructure, and economic security. As such, many of the threat actors and their efforts cut across mission areas and interact in complex and, at times, reinforcing ways. Terrorism, both foreign and domestic, remains a top threat to the Homeland, but other threats are increasingly crowding the threat space. During the next year, we assess that the threat of violence from individuals radicalized in the United States will remain high, but largely unchanged, marked by lone offenders or small group attacks that occur with little warning. Foreign terrorist groups like al-Qa’ida and ISIS are seeking to rebuild overseas, and they maintain worldwide networks of supporters that could seek to target the Homeland. Climate change, natural disasters, and technological advances have the potential to compound many of these threats. Climate-related disasters, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, coastal storms, and inland flooding, have the potential to disrupt regional economies, foster health crises like disease outbreaks, and tax law enforcement resources.

Mapping the Nation. Taking Climate Action, Esri

The authors cover topics such as extreme heat, drought, inland flooding, coastal flooding, wildfires, and biodiversity. There are special callouts to geographical information system use in various cases nationally and internationally along with statistics and studies done by agencies and the private sector.

X-change: Cars. The end of the ICE age, Bond et al, RMI

The authors show that the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that global oil demand for cars has already peaked and will be in freefall by 2030. The end of the internal combustible engine (ICE) age has begun. There is a clear exponential growth pattern for EVs, as rising sales track along an S-curve. Led by Northern Europe and China, and driven by policy, it is taking around six years for EVs to go from 1% to 10% of new car sales. The next stage is quicker still: In leading countries, it is taking another six years to get to 80%. The new driver of change is economics. Because battery costs enjoy learning curves, the total cost of ownership price parity has been reached, and sticker price parity will be reached in every major car market and segment by the end of the decade. That will enable the revolution to widen across the Global South and deepen into other transport sectors. By 2030, EVs will dominate global car sales. If the challenges continue to be solved and sales continue up the S-curves, then EVs will make up between 62% and 86% of global car sales by 2030, with China enjoying an EV market share of at least 90%. Meanwhile, consensus sales forecasts are lagging and get upgraded every year.

Positive Tipping Points Case Study: Electric Vehicles, Murphy et al., University of Exeter

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are on track to meet or outpace even the most ambitious net-zero timelines and could account for more than two-thirds of market share by 2030. Following an “S-curve” trajectory, already established by leading EV markets in northern Europe and China, EV sales will likely increase at least sixfold by 2030, to enjoy a market share of 62% to 86% of sales. By contrast, currently established projections see EVs reaching only around 40% market share by 2030, despite having been consistently revised higher to try and keep up with the exponential growth already underway. A first tipping point has been crossed: in leading markets, electric vehicles are already cheaper to own than fossil-fuelled cars. A second tipping point is imminent: in leading markets, electric vehicles will be cheaper to buy than fossil-fuelled cars within the next one to three years.

Harvesting Solar Power Five Times More Favored Than Burning Fossil Fuels, Glocalities

Citizens in all 21 countries that were surveyed massively gravitate towards energy from the sun instead of fossil fuels. While currently 77% of global energy consumption comes from fossil fuels, oil, coal, and natural gas, only 14% of the international population favors energy from fossil fuels. Simultaneously, solar energy is the most favored energy source, internationally, with 68% of respondents preferring solar energy. Nevertheless, currently, only 2% of global energy consumption originates from solar energy. The preference for solar energy is followed by wind energy (54%), hydropower (36%) and nuclear energy (24%).

Ready-to-Go Transmission Projects 2023, Zimmerman et al., Americans for a Clean Energy Grid

The authors identify 36 high-capacity transmission projects that could be ready to break ground in the near term and, if completed, would connect 187 gigawatts of renewable resources to the grid, create 3.3 million jobs, improve electric reliability, and lower electricity costs for consumers. Due to the many challenges that hinder transmission, the authors expect less than half of these projects will actually proceed to construction in the coming years without policy reforms that improve how transmission is permitted and paid for in the United States. While many of the projects are significant, they also represent just over 10% of the investment needed to cost-effectively build a clean and reliable grid. The country will need substantially more transmission investment to fully decarbonize the power system and strengthen the ties between regions that allow energy to flow freely where it is most needed.

Reducing the Risks of Climate Overshoot, Lamy et al., Climate Overshoot Commission

The likelihood of global warming exceeding the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is alarmingly high and continues to rise. Policymakers should urgently address the escalating risks of climate change, particularly those impacting vulnerable countries, by considering the full spectrum of approaches. Emissions reductions must be prioritized and accelerated. This requires an ambitious and orderly phasing out of fossil fuels, as well as a clear differentiation between the pace of phase-out in industrialized and the least industrialized countries. Efforts to increase protection from the impacts of a disrupted climate (“adaptation”) should be expanded, along with the international financing to support them, as well as new mechanisms to plan, measure, and anticipate at the national level and across critical sectors such as agriculture. Carbon dioxide removal techniques should be developed and deployed to help achieve net-zero – and, ultimately, net-negative – emissions, balancing the benefits of biological and industrial methods, and enabling them through smart policies and financing. Countries should adopt a moratorium on the deployment of solar radiation modification and large-scale outdoor experiments that would carry the risk of significant transboundary harm while expanding research and pursuing international governance dialogues.

Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region, Zachariah et al., World Weather Attribution

On September 3, 2023, torrential rain fell within a few hours in Spain, followed by very heavy rain and floods caused by the low-pressure system “Daniel” in Greece and Bulgaria between the 4th and the 7th of September, and devastating floods in Libya after very extreme rainfall during the 10th. All three individual rainfall events caused severe flooding, submerging settlements, leaving thousands homeless and killing at least four people in Bulgaria, six in Spain, seven in Türkiye, and 17 in Greece. Further, 3,958 casualties have been confirmed in the Libyan city of Derna alone, and an additional 170 fatalities elsewhere in the country, while more than 10,000 people are still missing after two major dams broke. Researchers from multiple countries collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall that led to the flooding. The authors are confident that climate change did make the events more likely: from theory, they know that an increase in rainfall intensity of around 10%, would be expected given current warming levels, so they could only report that there has been no change if there was a well-known dynamic process counteracting this effect, which there is not. Studies focussing on extreme rainfall with future warming also show an increase in heavy rainfall, rendering it probable that the observed increase in heavy rainfall is indeed a trend due to climate change. For these reasons, they do not give a central estimate of the influence of climate change, as in previous studies, instead giving an upper bound of the effect.

Gas Glut 2023: Global gas power expansion continues to thwart energy transition, Martos et al., Global Energy Monitor

The authors found that global oil- and gas-fired capacity in development increased 13% last year, even China and Southeast Asia experienced volatile price swings and hosted some of the lowest costs for green electricity. Global oil- and gas-fired power plants in development — projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — increased 13% last year to 783 gigawatts (GW) Nearly two-thirds of this capacity and cost is in Asia, where 514 GW at an estimated US$385 billion are in development, mainly in China and Southeast Asia If built, the existing global oil and gas fleet would grow by a third at an estimated cost of US$611 billion in capital expenditure.

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