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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2023

Posted on 14 September 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

In this week's government/NGO section we have a survey from IPSOS gauging experience of climate change in the day-to-day by persons in the US, One in four Americans say climate change will make it harder to live in their area. Many people struggle to separate their sensory perceptions from matters of metaphysics, with ideology strongly coloring their worldview. We live in a world that is quantitatively different than that our parents were born into, but we don't necessarily see that:

Perhaps because of the wide-reaching experience with extreme weather this summer, about one in four Americans say climate change will make it more difficult to live in their area, and most expect extreme weather to continue in the future. Notably, partisanship colors Americans’ experience with extreme weather and their views on climate change overall, with more Democrats reporting experiences with extreme weather and belief in the adverse effects of climate change than Republicans. 

The IPSOS survey tapped into consciousness of what it means to live in a warming world, and with increasingly frequency that means living through heatwaves. The meaning and import of terms varies; experts on weather understand heatwaves differently than laypeople or epidemiologists. In Climatic Change Sofia Boni et al. thoroughly explore the concept and meaning of "heatwave" and how impacts of heatwaves are perceived and processed in a variety of ways, all challenged by the non-stationarity of our moderm climate. It's good to get onto the same page with such matters, and What is a heat(wave)? An interdisciplinary perspective gets that job done.

Let alone addressing main urgencies, cooperation against a common enemy might have side-benefits. Via  Advances in Climate Change Research Cui et al. deliver a highly detailed assessment of respective coal generation plant inventory for two global superpowers, with an eye to coordinated retirement. A U.S.-China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway describes some low-hanging fruit that could be dragged down by two major actors working in concert, yieldingswift and deep emission reductions: 

Globally, the joint U.S.-China coal transition itself can lower overall energy-related CO2 emissions by about 9% in 2030 relative to 2020, and a catalytic effect from the possibility of other country taking compatible actions would increase the emission reductions to 15% by 2030.

In their opinion piece Proposing a 1.0°C climate target for a safer future in PLOS Climate, Breyer et al. provide a brief but well-grounded and compelling argument to rethink the safety of the globally agreed 1.5°C allowable amount of planetary surface temperature rise. They go on to identify components to drop that figure by 1/3rd, and in so doing they must hypothesize DACCS (direct air capture with carbon storage) on a massive scale. DACCS is the plaything of legacy energy interests and hence buffeted by bad ink and bad optics but stripping that aside, what about the math? That can and should be handled seperately, for calm consideration: 

To attain a 1.0°C climate target within acceptable certainty, about 40 GtCO2/a of CDR would be needed from the early 2060s onwards. While enormous, in that it would approximate current CO2 emissions, this amount of CDR using DACCS would require only 5–10% of global primary energy demand under two conditions: continued very rapid scaling of PV and strong energy efficiency gains of low-temperature DACCS by utilising heat pumps, while low-cost heat for DACCS may be also supplied by geothermal or solar thermal heat. Under these conditions, a 1.0°C world would become plausible in industrial, financial, and societal terms. Diverse CDR portfolios combining different natural climate solutions and sustainable technological solutions can enable the massive CDR needed for achieving a 1.0°C climate target by end-century facilitating safe climate conditions for civilisation.

Renewable energy deployment in Europe: Do politics matter?, Silva et al., Environment, Development & Sustainability. Spot the key unsupported conclusion in this arguably neoliberal-tinged analysis. 

Nobody with common sense likes being boxed into further tampering with Earth's climate system, but arguing over that without full information won't close the issue or make the option magically go away. Yue et al. publishing in Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science break some new ground and find a mixed bag, in Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering. The authors report that sea level wouldn't be affected equally on all coastlines with large employment of SAI (stratospheric aerosol injection), arguably complicating an already challenging decision space. Results hint at matters of equity and as well impacts on potentially important carbon feedback reservoirs. 

Unprecedented Historical Erosion of US Gulf Coast: A Consequence of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise?, Anderson et al., Earth's Future. Cutting to the chase: Yes. 

The ubiquitous shift toward increased shoreline erosion along the US Gulf Coast during the 20th century is most plausibly due to the historical acceleration of sea-level rise, currently about an order of magnitude faster than during the late Holocene. With the continued increase in the rate of sea-level rise, coastal populations, engineered shorelines, and use of dwindling sand resources along the US Gulf Coast, there is a critical need to adapt management practices to this new state of continuous landward retreat. Given the variable behavior of wave-dominated coasts during the late Holocene and modern times, coastal inundation models are poorly suited for predicting changes in wave-dominated coastal settings in coming decades. These models likely under-estimate the rate and magnitude of change.

149 articles in 65 journals by 952 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A strong high-temperature event in late-spring 2023 in Yunnan province, Southwest China: Characteristics and possible causes, Dong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107017

An asymmetric relationship between Tibetan Plateau surface temperature regimes and oceanic–atmospheric circulations, Bafitlhile & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8179

Causes of 2022 summer marine heatwave in the East China Seas, Hong-Jian et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.08.010

Contrasting Deep and Shallow Winter Warming over the Barents–Kara Seas on the Intraseasonal Time Scale, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0879.1

Doubling of surface oceanic meridional heat transport by non-symmetry of mesoscale eddies, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41294-7

Evaluation of multi-level upper ocean heat content and its relationship with intensity and translation speed of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, Albert & Bhaskaran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04641-8

Prevalent atmospheric and oceanic signals of the unprecedented heatwaves over the Yangtze River Valley in July–August 2022, Yin et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107018

Quantifying Global Warming Response of the Orographic Precipitation in a Typhoon Environment with Large-Eddy Simulations, Chen & Shi , Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0018.1

The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis, Karnauskas et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105551

Observations of climate change, effects

Coastal and regional marine heatwaves and cold spells in the northeastern Atlantic, Simon et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-1339-2023

Continental-scale trends of daily precipitation records in late 20th century decades and 21st century projections: An analysis of observations, reanalyses and CORDEX-CORE projections, Belleri et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8248

Detectable Anthropogenic Intensification of the Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events Over Global Land Areas, Pan et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003254

Impact of spring Tibetan Plateau snow cover on extreme precipitation in Pakistan in July and August 2022, Ma et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107007

Rainy Days in the Arctic, Boisvert et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0428.1

Rapid Decadal Acceleration of Sea Level Rise along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts during 2010–22 and Its Impact on Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge, Yin, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0670.1

Recent High Missouri River Basin Runoff Was Unlikely Caused by Climate Change, Hoell et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0158.1

State of the UK Climate 2022, Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8167

The 2022-like compound dry and hot extreme in the Northern Hemisphere: Extremeness, attribution, and projection, Meng et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107009

The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica, Casado et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01791-5

Variability and changes of the height and duration of snow cover on the G?sienicowa Glade (Tatras), Stanis?aw et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8249

Variation Trends of Asymmetrical Precipitable Water Vapor Outside the Tropical Cyclone Center Over the WNP and WSP Ocean, Yu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl103841

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A 5-km gridded product development of daily temperature and precipitation for Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan from 1981 to 2016, Ali et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.217

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States, Thomas et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105204

Helicopter-Based Ocean Observations Capture Broad Ocean Heat Intrusions Toward the Totten Ice Shelf, Nakayama et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl097864

Interpolating climate variables by using INLA and the SPDE approach, Fioravanti et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8240

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Altitudinal dependence of projected changes in occurrence of extreme events in the Great Alpine Region, Napoli et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8222

Characteristics of Rain-Snow Transitions Over the Canadian Rockies and their Changes in Warmer Climate Conditions, Thériault et al., Atmosphere 10.1080/07055900.2023.2251938

Cold wave intensity on the Iberian Peninsula: Future climate projections, Díaz-Poso et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107011

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations, Linke et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023

Future changes in atmospheric synoptic variability slow down ocean circulation and decrease primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Duteil & Park, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00459-3

Future projection of early fall and late spring frosts based on EC-earth models and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios over Iran plateau, Mesgari et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06155-y

Global Temperature Projections from a Statistical Energy Balance Model Using Multiple Sources of Historical Data, Bennedsen et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0460.1

Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2, Kolbe et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038926

Increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations, Nellikkattil et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00963-7

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea based on multimodel ensembles of CMIP6 projections, Hoseini et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8232

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projection of Future Heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta through CMIP6-WRF Dynamical Downscaling, Zuo et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Open Access 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0201.1

Soil moisture precipitation feedbacks in the Eastern European Alpine region in convection-permitting climate simulations, Truhetz & Mishra, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8234

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Developing Low-Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe, Gessner et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003628

Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modelling and prediction, Schneider et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01769-3

Improving the subseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate model, Srivastava et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8142

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0

Possible self-regulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-tropospheric temperatures and its connection to upper-level winds in reanalyses and Earth system models, Brunke et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04635-6

Reliability of simulating internal precipitation variability over multi-timescales using multiple global climate model large ensembles in China, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8210

Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Learning–Based Statistical Downscaling of Climatic Parameters, Nourani et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0057.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Area Projections for the 21st Century, Peng et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003573

Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea-Ice Reductions Drives Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Increases, Trusel et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0056.1

Closing Greenland's Mass Balance: Frontal Ablation of Every Greenlandic Glacier From 2000 to 2020, Kochtitzky et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104095

CRYO, Wright et al., Microscopy and Microanalysis Open Access pdf 10.1017/s1431927603440518

Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Area Projections for the 21st Century, Peng et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003573

Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea-Ice Reductions Drives Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Increases, Trusel et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0056.1

Closing Greenland's Mass Balance: Frontal Ablation of Every Greenlandic Glacier From 2000 to 2020, Kochtitzky et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104095

Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice Concentration in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean: Annual Cycle and Recent Changes, Aue & Rinke, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104657

Foehn Winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in Ice Changes, Francis et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023

Rapid Basal Channel Growth Beneath Greenland's Longest Floating Ice Shelf, Narkevic et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103226

Wind influences the onset of a seasonally sea-ice-free Arctic, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01699-0

Sea level & climate change

Unprecedented Historical Erosion of US Gulf Coast: A Consequence of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise?, Anderson et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003676

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A rapid onset of ocean acidification associated with the end-Permian mass extinction, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104130

Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions, Strandberg et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023

Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate-model study using pollen-based land-cover reconstructions, Strandberg et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023

Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Guo et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301954120

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Continental-scale climatic gradients of pathogenic microbial taxa in birds and bats, Xu et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06783

Ecological effects of offshore transport in the shelf sea and its response to climate warming, Shi et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104240

Elevation-dependent tree growth response to recent warming and drought on eastern Tibetan Plateau, Yin et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03542-z

Future climate change-related decreases in food quality may affect juvenile Chinook salmon growth and survival, Garzke et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106171

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration, Morten et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16891

Impact of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming on the Surface Phytoplankton Biomass at Two Significant Coastal Upwelling Zones in the Arabian Sea, Smitha et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101401

Joint effects of species traits and environmental preferences on range edge shifts of British birds, Thompson et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13752

Marine heatwaves on the rise: One of the strongest ever observed mass mortality event in temperate gorgonians, Estaque et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16931

Megafauna extinctions in the late-Quaternary are linked to human range expansion, not climate change, Lemoine et al., Anthropocene Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100403

Shifts in competitive structures can drive variation in species' phenology, Dumandan et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4160

Spatial and interannual variability of Antarctic sea ice bottom algal habitat, 2004–2019, Lim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020055

The cost of behavioural change, Armarego-Marriott, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01806-1

Tree canopy extent and height change in Europe, 2001–2021, quantified using Landsat data archive, Turubanova et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113797

Upper Bounds of Maximum Land Surface Temperatures in a Warming Climate and Limits to Plant Growth, Aminzadeh et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003755

Upslope migration is slower in insects that depend on metabolically demanding flight, Moore et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01794-2

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra, Rodenhizer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16936

Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature, Matthews et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5

Atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals the Amazon as a minor carbon source caused by fire emissions, with forest uptake offsetting about half of these emissions, Basso et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Drivers of soil organic carbon stock during tropical forest succession, Satdichanh et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14141

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance, Yang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023

Magnitude, trends, and variability of the global ocean carbon sink from 1985-2018, DeVries et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007780

Modeling of grassland biomass and evaluation of uncertainties caused by differences in frozen soil type on the Qinghai Plateau, Zhang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04620-z

Mycorrhizae enhance reactive minerals but reduce mineral-associated carbon, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16886

Reply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations, Liggio & Li, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40819-4

Resolving the carbon-climate feedback potential of wetland CO2 and CH4 fluxes in Alaska, Ma et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2022gb007524

Role of land cover in Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions, Holmberg et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01910-8

Simultaneous Production and Consumption of Soil N2O Creates Complex Effects on its Stable Isotope Composition, Amundson et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2022gb007536

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The impact of seasonality on the annual air-sea carbon flux and its interannual variability, Rustogi et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00378-3

Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions, Skeie et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00969-1

Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations, Fu & Legge Li, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40818-5

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET-CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison, McNicol et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000956

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CO2-Induced alterations due to thermal maturation in shale: Implications for CO2 utilization and storage, Onwumelu et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2243

Handling heat-stable salts in post-combustion CO2 capture: A detailed survey, Emori et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2242

Hemispherically asymmetric Hadley cell response to CO2 removal, Kim et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg1801

Synthesis of nanoengineered microporous activated carbon from Nerium Oleander fruit seeds for the adsorptive removal of carbon dioxide (CO2), Pandey et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03841-6

Decarbonization

A U.S.-China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway, Cui et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.005

Climate impact and energy use of structural battery composites in electrical vehicles—a comparative prospective life cycle assessment, Hermansson et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02202-9

Long-term optimal capacity expansion planning for an operating off-grid PV mini-grid in rural Africa under different demand evolution scenarios, Wassie & Ahlgren, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101305

Recent Advances with Biomass-Derived Carbon-Based Catalysts for the High-Efficiency Electrochemical Reduction of Oxygen to Hydrogen Peroxide, Wang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300128

Techno-economic analysis on prospects and implementation of employing radiative cooling technology across broader atmospheric conditions, Farooq et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101302

Geoengineering climate

Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering, Yue et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4

Aerosols

Modeling dust mineralogical composition: sensitivity to soil mineralogy atlases and their expected climate impacts, Gonçalves Ageitos et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-8623-2023

Climate change communications & cognition

Perceived national wealth increases support for structural climate policies, Klebl & Jetten, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102055

Worry about Climate Change of Outdoor Recreation Participants: A Case Study in Türkiye, Aslan et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0039.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Agricultural insurance as a climate risk adaptation strategy in developing countries: a case of Nigeria, Madaki et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2220672

Climate change in MATOPIBA region of Brazil: a study on climate extremes in agriculture, de Oliveira Aparecido et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04509-x

Does integrating climate change projection with agriculture policy improve agricultural adaptation and food security? Evidence from Bangladesh, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives, Kozicka et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40899-2

Measurement and Management of Value Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Supermarket Retailing, Mungkung & Nudchanate, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0012.1

Model-based scenarios for achieving net negative emissions in the food system, Almaraz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000181

Modeling of current and future distributions of Camellia sinensis in Türkiye under climate change, ?zmirli & Gül, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04627-6

Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa, Mubenga-Tshitaka et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100561

The Institutional Support Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing the effectiveness of institutions' climate risk management support-A case Study of farming communities in Pakatan, Abbas Khan et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100560

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan, Ahmed et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y

Has Arctic sea ice loss affected summer precipitation in North China?, Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8119

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Trend analysis of maximum rainfall series of standard durations in Turkey with innovative methods, Touhedi et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06085-9

Climate change and the circular economy

China’s bulk material loops can be closed but deep decarbonization requires demand reduction, Song et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01782-6

Policy recommendations to enhance circular economy of LIBs in an emerging economy, Gahlaut & Dwivedi, Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09941-y

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of policy-driven acidification and temperature targets, Avrutin et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03587-0

Curse to blessing: The carbon emissions trading system and resource-based cities' carbon mitigation, Wu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113796

Energy systems modelling for just transitions, Li et al., Energy Strategy Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.esr.2022.101015

Exploring the democracy-climate nexus: a review of correlations between democracy and climate policy performance, Lindvall & Karlsson, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2256697

Just transitions and resilience in contexts of conflict and fragility: the need for a transformative approach, McCandless & Faus Onbargi, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101360

Policies to reduce India's crude oil import dependence amidst clean energy transition, Mishra et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113804

Renewable energy deployment in Europe: Do politics matter?, Silva et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03839-0

The land and sea routes to 2030: a call for greater attention on all small islands in global environmental policy, Ortiz et al., npj Biodiversity Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44185-023-00023-5

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Advancing participatory backcasting for climate change adaptation planning using 10 cases from 3 continents, van der Voorn et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100559

An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making, Muccione et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06135-2

Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems, Liu et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01304-w

Contrasting Population Projections to Induce Divergent Estimates of Landslides Exposure Under Climate Change, Lin et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003741

Digging in? Migration preferences in communities affected by climate change — evidence from Bangladesh, Wiig et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02086-3

Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator, Döring & Hall, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01732-2

Linking climate change to urban planning through vulnerability assessment: The case of two cities at the Mexico-US border, Muñoz-Pizza et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101674

Living with climate and state fragility in a “chaotic paradise:” securitizing livelihoods in the Philippines’ Cotabato River Basin, Delina et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100558

Selected global flood preparation and response lessons: implications for more resilient Chinese Cities, Chan et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06102-x

Climate change impacts on human health

Considerations for occupational heat exposure: A scoping review, Cheveldayoff et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000202

Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis, Ma et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gh000760

Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia, Colón-González et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y

Climate change impacts on human culture

Impacts of climate change on dogsledding recreation and tourism in Arctic Sweden, Nilsson & Demiroglu, International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-023-02542-z

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Cloud type frequency over Poland (2003–2021) revealed by independent satellite-based (MODIS) and surface-based (SYNOP) observations, Wojciechowska et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8141

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

How to mitigate misinformation, Waldrop, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2314143120

Proposing a 1.0°C climate target for a safer future, Breyer et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000234

Small watersheds may play a disproportionate role in arctic land-ocean fluxes, Vonk et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39209-7

Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective, Hagenlocher et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003857

Taking stock of the implementation gap in climate policy, Fransen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01755-9

What is a heat(wave)? An interdisciplinary perspective, Boni et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03592-3

With the arrival of El Niño, prepare for stronger marine heatwaves, Hobday et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-023-02730-2

Book reviews

Climate change and political theory, Purdon, Global Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1162/glep_e_00309


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

One in four Americans say climate change will make it harder to live in their area, Ipsos

Following a summer filled with intense weather events from Alaska to Hawaii, most Americans say they have experienced some form of extreme weather in the past month, with extreme heat getting cited the most, according to a new USA Today/Ipsos poll on extreme weather. Additionally, a majority of respondents say that compared to 10 years ago, poor air quality or air pollution is getting more frequent or intense in the communities they live, up significantly from April 2023. Perhaps because of the wide-reaching experience with extreme weather this summer, about one in four Americans say climate change will make it more difficult to live in their area, and most expect extreme weather to continue in the future. Notably, partisanship colors Americans’ experience with extreme weather and their views on climate change overall, with more Democrats reporting experiences with extreme weather and belief in the adverse effects of climate change than Republicans.

Transportation Electrification in the Southeast,, Taylor et al., Atlas Public Policy and Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

The authors benchmarked progress on transportation electrification in six states in the Southeast including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Southeast continues to see growth across key electric vehicle (EV) measures. The challenge is to ensure state policies and investments foster a thriving EV market that supports manufacturer and supply chain expansion, ensures consumers have equitable access to EV charging and ownership, and enables light, medium- and heavy-duty fleet operators to electrify. For example, though Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee engage in electric transportation planning, and North Carolina has set ambitious transportation decarbonization targets, the Southeast policy landscape is not supportive of EV market growth.

System-level Impacts of Voluntary Carbon-free Electricity Procurement Strategies, Qingyu et al., Zenodo

The authors enhance a capacity expansion planning model to study the system-level impacts of carbon-free electricity procurement by voluntary actors in the western United States, accounting for changes in both system operations and installed capacity. They assess multiple proposed strategies for voluntary procurement of new, locally generated carbon-free electricity, including those that match a participating consumer's demand with carbon-free generation annually ("volumetric matching''), hourly ("temporal matching''), or aim to eliminate a consumer's emissions impact as measured via short-run marginal emissions accounting ("emissions matching''). They found that in the current U.S. policy environment, voluntary carbon-free electricity procurements made under volumetric or emissions-matching strategies have zero or near-zero long-run impact on system-level CO2 emissions. Carbon-free electricity procurements made under these strategies reduce the deployment of similar carbon-free resources by independent developers but have little impact on fossil-fired generation. By contrast, temporal matching drives significant reductions in system-level CO2 emissions by requiring the generation of carbon-free electricity even in hours when fossil-based resources would normally be preferred. Temporal matching also incentivizes procurement of advanced clean firm generation and long-duration storage technologies that would not otherwise see market uptake. Electricity cost premiums for voluntary participants are near-zero under volumetric and emissions-matching strategies and can exceed $20/MWh under temporal matching, but are reduced when a larger portfolio of advanced technologies is available for procurement. These outcomes are sensitive to changes in policy: while volumetric matching has near-zero impact under current federal and state policies, it is the most cost-effective means of incremental CO2 mitigation in a scenario with a binding system-wide clean electricity standard, although total emissions reductions remain modest.

Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake, United Nationas Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat

The synthesis report on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake is based on inputs received throughout the process and discussions held during each of the three meetings of the technical dialogue and serves as an overarching and factual resource that provides a comprehensive overview of discussions held during the technical dialogue, identifying key areas for further action to bridge gaps and addressing challenges and barriers in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. It provides an assessment of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and informs Parties about potential areas for updating and enhancing their action and support, as well as for enhancing international cooperation for climate action.

Remining for the energy transition. Potential and pitfalls for sourcing energy transition metals, Morrill et al., Transport & Environment and Earthworks

Governments and companies are increasingly exploring the option to use materials contained in operating, closed, or abandoned mine sites via remining. Remining uses mine waste as source material to extract minerals, metals, or other materials of economic value. The authors present policy recommendations for safe remining practices, as well as outline remining’s associated risks. The authors highlight the potential to leverage remining to meet some of the demand for metals and minerals. Preliminary data shows promising potential: in Europe for example remined cobalt could power more than 185,000 EVs. However, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the availability of metals at mine waste sites. As governments look to shift economies away from fossil fuels, remining presents unique opportunities to move towards a circular economy, as well as address legacy issues created by past mining projects. However, more information is needed to fully understand the potential of remining, and regulators must take proactive steps to develop best practices and safeguards for remining projects and to ensure these projects don’t further harm communities, ecosystems, and Indigenous Peoples’ rights.

Uncovering KKR's Environmental Responsibility Gap, Moore et al., Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, Global Energy Monitor, and The Private Equity Stakeholder project

The authors examine three case studies that shed light on the environmental record and community effects of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company (KKR) investments. The authors begin with a brief overview of the private equity industry’s business practices and the risks posed to investors from investments in fossil fuel companies. They then offer a critical examination of KKR’s “part-of-the-solution” claims and the stark contrasts between KKR’s significant efforts to portray itself as a responsible investor and its track record of exacerbating the climate crisis, accruing repeated environmental violations, and disregarding community demands. The authors provide a list of recommendations to encourage greater transparency, accountability, and responsible investment practices within the private equity industry. KKR should ensure that harmful environmental and community impacts of its past are remediated, and ensure a commitment to true climate standards going forward.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

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    For those who are not watching the hurricane season in the Atlantic ocean, Tropical Storm Nigel formed today.  It is epxected to become a hurricane tomorrow.  It is not expected to threaten any land areas.

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