Posted on 8 January 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

A Long-Term Shift in Flow Regimes over the Antarctic Peninsula, Guarino et al., Journal of Climate

We present consequences of Antarctic surface warming for the stability of the lower atmosphere since the 1950s. We show that the surface atmosphere over the Antarctic Peninsula has become less stable, and that this reduced stability favors the generation of atmospheric gravity waves from the Peninsula, one of the major sources of atmospheric waves on the planet. We provide a physically based explanation (i.e., a shift in flow regimes) for the increased gravity wave forcing that we find in an unprecedented set of reanalysis products, satellite observations, and model simulations, and that we present here for the first time. Gravity wave forcing changes can have profound ramifications for the global climate, from polar vortex strength to ozone depletion and midlatitude weather. 

The Evolving Decline of Landfast Sea Ice in Northern Alaska and Adjacent Waters: Results from an Updated Climatology, (preprint, ESS Open Archive) Mahoney & Einhorn

We present a new 27-year record of landfast sea ice extent in northern Alaska and adjacent waters, which uses ice chart data to extend a previous analysis based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. This new climatology provides updated information on the decline of landfast ice in a region of the Arctic that has seen extensive losses of sea ice in recent summers. By comparing our results with early satellite data analysis from the 1970s, we find that trends in the timing of landfast ice have been ongoing for at least 50 years. Over the period 1996-2023, the landfast season shortened by 19 days/decade in the Chukchi Sea and 13 days/decade in the Beaufort Sea, primarily due to later formation of landfast ice. Also, the time between onset of freezing air temperatures and landfast ice formation is increasing, which is consistent with a coastal ocean that takes longer to freeze. While it was previously reported that the typical annual maximum width of landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea declined by 13 km between periods 1970-76 and 1996-2008, we find this retreat has slowed with a decline of 3.3 km over the course of our dataset as few areas of extensive landfast remain to be lost. Conversely, landfast sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea had previously been found to have remained constant since the 1970s, but we find an average reduction of 2.5 km. We attribute this emergent phenomenon to a reduction in the number grounded ridges forming offshore.

Engaging the unengaged: Differential effects of AI-driven climate communication across audiences, Plechatá et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology

Despite the urgent need for widespread climate action, current communication approaches have a limited impact, especially on less engaged audiences. To address this issue, we examined the effectiveness of AI-driven climate communication in influencing pro-environmental intentions and intentions to adapt to climate change (Study 1; laboratory setting, N = 178), as well as participants’ likelihood of engaging with the communication material in the first place (Study 2; online setting, N = 295). In Study 1, both AI-driven and textual climate communication formats increased pro-environmental and adaptation intentions from pre- to post-intervention. Importantly, the effectiveness of the different communication formats depended on audience characteristics: the textual communication was more effective for highly climate-curious participants, while the AI-driven communication was more effective for individuals less curious about climate change. Study 2 further showed that AI-driven climate communication was perceived as more engaging than a comprehensive textual scientific climate report. This was particularly pronounced for participants with lower climate change curiosity and threat beliefs. We conclude that more experiential communication formats like AI-driven climate communication may help engage and impact previously unengaged audiences.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Deniers of the 119th Congress and the Second Trump Administration, Kat So, Center for American Progress

The author's analysis finds that the federal government is rife with officials who deny climate change in leadership positions within the executive branch, presidential Cabinet, and Congress. This analysis considers a person a climate denier if they have stated that they believe that climate change is not real or is a hoax, stated that the climate has always been changing as a result of natural factors and that today’s warming is merely a continuation of natural cycles; claimed that the science around climate change is not settled, including attempting to dismiss the science around carbon dioxide, or that they cannot speak to the issue because they are not scientists; claimed that while humans are contributing to a changing climate, they are not the main contributors; stated that increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as wildfires and hurricanes, are not related to climate change, or claimed that climate change impacts are beneficial to humans or positive for planetary health.

Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda, Tom Ellison, Council on Strategic Risks

Russia’s strategic interests in controlling domestic dissent, undermining NATO countries, and advancing its emissions-intensive economic model drive its information manipulation activities related to climate change and the environment. Russia deploys a variety of influence tools–ranging from state media, to social media manipulation, to domestic censorship, to witting and unwitting proxies–to advance these messages. Kremlin information manipulation intersects with climate issues in a variety of areas: undermining climate science, controlling domestic environmental activism, exploiting disasters in NATO countries, influencing the Arctic and African climate hotspots, slowing and shaping the green transition, and stoking climate polarization in Western democracies. Russian climate-related influence efforts capitalize on pre-existing grievances and divisions, often converging with far-right rhetoric, unhealthy digital ecosystems, and fossil fuel industry interests. Amid worsening climate impacts, rapid AI development, and weakened US pushback, subnational, European, and nongovernmental actors will be key to countering Russian information manipulation on climate change.

41 articles in 17 journals by 265 contributing authors

[Readers please note that as with the previous edition and due to circumstances beyond our control with an upstream publication database, this week's academic section is unusually slender. If experience is any guide, we'll see a reciprocal bulge in an upcoming edition as the database problem is corrected.]

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Long-Term Shift in Flow Regimes over the Antarctic Peninsula, Guarino et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0330.1

Barents Sea atlantification driven by a shift in atmospheric synoptic timescale, Hordoir et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6046335/v1

Explaining the Transient and Equilibrium Longwave Feedback with Moist Adiabatic Theory and Its Deviations, Feldl et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0228.1

Hydrographic Variability in the Central Ross Ice Shelf Cavity and the Implications for Ocean Circulation, Xiahou et al., 10.22541/essoar.175917306.62921777/v1

Quantifying the spatial extent and attenuation of lake thermal regulation at diurnal scales under extreme heat, Xing et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847

Reduced cooling in the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current: investigating mechanisms of change from 30 years of observations, Baumann et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2854

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Examining the Robustness of Weakened Orographic Influence on Precipitation in Downscaled Climate Projections Over the Western US, Siler et al., 10.22541/essoar.175766943.35815061/v1

State-Dependence of Polar Amplification in an Idealized GCM, Williams & Merlis, 10.22541/essoar.175370310.03302646/v1

Tropical cyclone intensification and extratropical transition under alternate climate conditions: a case study of Hurricane Ophelia (2017), Ribberink et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-218

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

GCM clouds and actual clouds as seen from different space lidars: towards a long-term assessment of cloud representation in GCMs using lidar simulators, Roussel et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3723

Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models, Romero-Prieto et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2691

Uncertainty in aerosol effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic and natural aerosol parameters in ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3, Bhatti et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2848

Cryosphere & climate change

A six-year circum-Antarctic icebergs dataset (2018–2023), Chen et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-51

The Evolving Decline of Landfast Sea Ice in Northern Alaska and Adjacent Waters: Results from an Updated Climatology, Mahoney & Einhorn, Open Access 10.22541/essoar.173939541.17906910/v1

Towards Bedmap Himalayas: a new airborne glacier thickness survey in Khumbu Himal, Nepal, Pritchard et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-519

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Ice sheet instability and meltwater events along the Svalbard–Barents Sea margin during the last 60,000 years, Lucchi et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105261

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A Global Atlas of Specific Leaf Area Under Climate Change, Chavdarov, JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES Open Access 10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00048

Climatic Variables as Drivers of Pterocarpus erinaceus (Fabaceae): Distribution and the Implications of Climate Change, Sari et al., 10.22541/au.175499476.65368958/v1

Future Climate and Land Use Change Will Equally Impact Global Terrestrial Vertebrate Diversity, Hari et al., 10.1101/2024.12.13.627895

Impacts of marine heatwaves on bivalves during reproduction, Zang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107810

Proactive Coral Reef Restoration Using Thermally Tolerant Corals in Hawai?i, Hoopai-Sylva et al., Open Access 10.1101/2025.03.28.646055

Projecting spatiotemporal bioclimatic niche dynamics of endemic Pyrenean plant species under climate change: how much will we lose?, Collette et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08067

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

CAMBIO: A Carbon Mass Balance Model for Undergraduates, Neshyba et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0069.1

Dredging and dumping impact coastal fluxes of sediment and organic carbon, Porz et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6005877/v1

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessment of CO₂ storage potential in global marine sediments based on machine learning methods, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105210

Reviews and syntheses: Carbon vs. cation based MRV of Enhanced Rock Weathering and the issue of soil organic carbon, Bijma et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2740

Decarbonization

A multi-criteria analysis framework for hydrogen carrier evaluation in large-scale intercontinental hydrogen exports, Yao et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115040

Geoengineering climate

Forcing Susceptibility and Climate Sensitivity to Midlatitude Marine Cloud Brightening, Hirasawa et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0337.1

Climate change communications & cognition

A registered report megastudy on the persuasiveness of the most-cited climate messages, Voelkel et al.,Nature Climate Change, 10.31235/osf.io/xwceg_v2

Engaging the unengaged: Differential effects of AI-driven climate communication across audiences, Plechatá et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102892

What’s capitalism – generational differentiation in the climate movement, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

The carbon footprint of the farming of edible brown alga Sargassum naozhouense, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107738

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing the coordination and consistency of the policy system for achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal based on text and network methods, Xu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.002

Evaluating the contribution of sustainable development goals to climate change mitigation in BRI countries, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

“It's time for the community to really get off the ground”: Insights of key actors on energy transition in Nunavik Inuit communities, Chagnon-Lessard et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104476

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Bridging the macro–micro divide through a new paradigm for climate resilience assessment in data-scarce regions, Katende, Open Access 10.31223/x57t64

How does the sponge city pilot policy affect the urban water system climate resilience: Quasi-experimental evidence from China, Yuan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102643

Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing exposure inequity to heatwaves between urban and rural populations across 18 Asian countries in a warmer climate, Zhang et al., Climate Risk Management 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100777

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey (2020–2024): Understanding Regional Attitudes towards Climate Change, Seah et al., Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute

Drawing on 7,654 responses from Southeast Asia Climate Outlook surveys conducted between 2020 to 2024 by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, this joint study by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) and the Lee Kuan Yew Centre for Innovative Cities (LKYCIC) at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) examines climate risk awareness, energy transition preferences, food security concerns, socio-economic divides in climate policy acceptance, and emerging expectations of climate leadership across Southeast Asia.

Climate and ecosystem service benefits of forests and trees for agriculture, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations

Forests and trees are powerful, often undervalued allies of agriculture. The authors synthesize the latest science on how forests and trees regulate climate, water and ecosystem functions that directly underpin agricultural performance. They examine their positive influence on temperature, rainfall patterns, water availability, soil fertility, pollination and pest management across multiple scales. Unlocking these benefits requires integrated landscape approaches, cross-sector governance, and policies that recognize forest conservation, restoration and sustainable use as strategic investments in food security, public health and climate resilience. Promoting forest–agriculture synergies offers a pathway toward more productive, sustainable and equitable agrifood systems

Modernizing Transmission Planning Integrating Silos to Deliver Multi-Driver, Multi-Value Outcomes, Rashwan et al., Energy Systems Integration Group

The authors address a central challenge: U.S. transmission planning remains fragmented across several planning areas including generator interconnection, load interconnection, reliability, economic, asset replacement, and public policy, tracks that have separate mandates and operate on misaligned timelines and with different assumptions. This siloed approach produces piecemeal fixes, repeated mitigations in the same transmission corridors, and slower, less predictable interconnection of generation and load just as demand rises, large loads concentrate, resources shift, and extreme weather increases system stress. The authors set out an integrative, broadened, deepened approach, which connects formerly siloed transmission planning tracks, uses shared planning futures, and makes possible the coordinated development and selection of projects to deliver multi-need, multi-value transmission portfolios aligned with FERC Order 1920.

Decoupling Net Zero from Climate Change? An analysis of UK newspaper coverage of the link, 2018-2024, James Painter and Will Vowell, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit

The authors assess whether there is a decoupling of net zero from climate change is occurring in parts of the UK media, whether intentionally or not.

Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda, Tom Ellison, Council on Strategic Risks

Russia’s strategic interests in controlling domestic dissent, undermining NATO countries, and advancing its emissions-intensive economic model drive its information manipulation activities related to climate change and the environment. Russia deploys a variety of influence tools–ranging from state media, to social media manipulation, to domestic censorship, to witting and unwitting proxies–to advance these messages. Kremlin information manipulation intersects with climate issues in a variety of areas: undermining climate science, controlling domestic environmental activism, exploiting disasters in NATO countries, influencing the Arctic and African climate hotspots, slowing and shaping the green transition, and stoking climate polarization in Western democracies. Russian climate-related influence efforts capitalize on pre-existing grievances and divisions, often converging with far-right rhetoric, unhealthy digital ecosystems, and fossil fuel industry interests. Amid worsening climate impacts, rapid AI development, and weakened US pushback, subnational, European, and nongovernmental actors will be key to countering Russian information manipulation on climate change.

When Cities Burn: Could the Los Angeles Fires Happen Here? (Australia), Climate Council of Australia

The authors outline how climate change played an instrumental role in supercharging the main factors that underpinned the Los Angeles, California, catastrophe and compare those conditions across Australia’s capital cities. They also explain why firefighters are increasingly facing fires they cannot stop; and what must be done to protect Australian lives, homes and communities as extreme fire weather intensifies. The shocking 2025 wildfires that ripped through Los Angeles neighborhoods in the middle of winter were supercharged by climate pollution. Many Australian characteristics that made the Los Angeles (LA) fires so destructive, and many of Australia's worst bushfires have also exhibited unstoppable fire behavior. 

Kin’s 2026 Homeownership Trends Report, Adam Morgan, Kin

Climate concerns are driving relocation decisions for many American homeowners. Nearly half (49%) of American homeowners are considering moving in 2026 due to climate-related concerns. Nearly all (93%) of American homeowners are bracing for extreme weather and expect it to damage their homes in the next three years due to a changing climate. 68% of American homeowners expect the frequency of extreme weather events in their area to increase in 2026 compared to last year.

Energy Transition Outlook Ireland, Wood Mackenzie, Pinergy

The authors offer a comprehensive perspective on Ireland’s energy transition and the critical role that electricity and renewables must now play in our country’s energy transformation. Ireland has committed to a legally binding net zero target by 2050. While the country is making reasonable progress, Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition outlook indicates immediate action is necessary to achieve this objective and interim goals. No sector is on track to meet its emissions objective, as energy related emissions are projected to fall by unfortunately only 35% by 2030, compared to 2018 levels. For context, the Climate Action Plan sets a target of 51% reduction in total national net emissions by 2030. To get back on track, the country must accelerate grid infrastructure upgrades and energy storage deployment to unlock renewables development, eliminate barriers to continued electric vehicle adoption, and enhance support for heat pumps and building electrification.

Climate Deniers of the 119th Congress and the Second Trump Administration, Kat So, Center for American Progress

The author's analysis finds that the federal government is rife with officials who deny climate change in leadership positions within the executive branch, presidential Cabinet, and Congress. This analysis considers a person a climate denier if they have stated that they believe that climate change is not real or is a hoax, stated that the climate has always been changing as a result of natural factors and that today’s warming is merely a continuation of natural cycles; claimed that the science around climate change is not settled, including attempting to dismiss the science around carbon dioxide, or that they cannot speak to the issue because they are not scientists; claimed that while humans are contributing to a changing climate, they are not the main contributors; stated that increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as wildfires and hurricanes, are not related to climate change, or claimed that climate change impacts are beneficial to humans or positive for planetary health.

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