Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2025
Posted on 11 December 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Detectability of Post-Net Zero Climate Changes and the Effects of Delay in Emissions Cessation, King et al., Earth's Future
There is growing interest in how the climate would change under net zero carbon dioxide emissions pathways as many nations aim to reach net zero in coming decades. In today's rapidly warming world, many changes in the climate are detectable, even in the presence of internal variability, but whether climate changes under net zero are expected to be detectable is less well understood. Here, we use a set of 1000-year-long net zero carbon dioxide emissions simulations branching from different points in the 21st century to examine detectability of large-scale, regional and local climate changes as time passes under net zero emissions. We find that even after net zero, there are continued detectable changes to climate for centuries. While local changes and changes in extremes are more challenging to detect, Southern Hemisphere warming and Northern Hemisphere cooling become detectable at many locations within a few centuries under net zero emissions. We also study how detectable delays in achieving emissions cessation are across climate indices. We find that for global mean surface temperature and other large-scale indices, such as Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent, the effects of an additional 5 years of high greenhouse gas emissions are detectable. Such delays in emissions cessation result in significantly different local temperatures for most of the planet, and most of the global population. The long simulations used here help with identifying local climate change signals. Multi-model frameworks will be useful to examine confidence in these changes and improve understanding of post-net zero climate changes.
From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Coulon et al., Nature Communications
Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise.
Declining number of northern hemisphere land-surface frozen days under global warming and thinner snowpacks, Hatami et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Freeze–thaw processes shape ecosystems, hydrology, and infrastructure across northern high latitudes. Here we use satellite-based observations from 1979–2021 across 47 northern hemisphere ecoregions to examine changes in the number of frozen land-surface days per year. We find widespread declines, with 70% of ecoregions showing significant reductions, primarily linked to rising air temperatures and thinning snowpacks. Causal analysis demonstrates that air temperature and snow depth exert consistent controls on the number of frozen days. A trend-informed assessment based on historical observations suggests a potential average loss of more than 30 frozen days per year by the end of the century, with the steepest decreases in Alaska, northern Canada, northern Europe, and eastern Russia. Scenario-based analysis indicates that each 1 °C increase in air temperature reduces frozen days by ~6-days, while each 1 cm decrease in snow depth leads to a ~ 3-day reduction. These shifts carry major ecological and socio-economic implications.
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change, Kaufhold et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Here we present Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, expected to occur under natural conditions around 50,000 years from now, while a doubling of current emissions (1000 PgC) would delay inception for another 50,000 years. Inception is generally expected within the next 200,000 years for emissions up to 5000 PgC. Our model results show that assumptions about the long-term balance of geological carbon sources and sinks has a strong impact on the timing of the next glacial inception, while millennial-scale variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation influences the exact timing. This work highlights the long-term impact of anthropogenic CO2 on climate.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Extreme Heat and the Shrinking Diurnal Range. A Global Evaluation of Oppressive Air Mass Character and Frequency, Kalkstein et al., Climate Resilience for All
As country leaders focus on avoiding breaching the +1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, nighttime temperatures in cities are soaring at a rate of as much as 10 times higher than daytime temperatures. The authors examine how nighttime temperatures are rising at alarming rates in cities across the globe. The authors found that cities are not only experiencing on average an extra day of extreme heat every six years, but also—even more alarmingly—nighttime temperatures are rising much more rapidly than daytime highs in a majority of the cities worldwide. Women are particularly vulnerable to nighttime heat. Physiological factors make them more sensitive to higher temperatures, and societal norms and inequalities amplify their risk. Often shouldering a greater burden of care for older relatives and the sick, it is usually a woman who stays awake when their family member cannot sleep, sacrificing her own rest and recovery, to care for them. And gender norms, or the threat of violence can keep women from sleeping outside or with windows open, making thermal relief even harder to find.
Extreme Heat, Gender and Health - A dialogue towards climate resilient adaptation, Kumar et al., Multiple
India's rapidly growing cities are becoming dangerous for pregnant women as extreme heat combines with inadequate housing and fragmented health systems to create life-threatening conditions. The Heat in Pregnancy – India (HiP-I) project brought together leading experts to examine this escalating crisis and identify urgent solutions. Policies must be tailored to local realities. India-specific research is necessary to understand the impact of heat on pregnancy, and early warning systems should incorporate humidity and nighttime temperatures, rather than focusing solely on peak daytime heat. Coordination across sectors is essential. Governance fragmentation leaves pregnant women in informal settlements without protection, while urban planning, health systems, water management, and housing policy continue to operate in silos. Breaking these silos is key to effective adaptation.
Highlights from the extreme heat and agriculture report, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization
The authors explore the impact of extreme heat on agricultural producers and on crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and forests worldwide. Drawing on recent scientific evidence and country case studies, they highlight the independent and compound risks posed by extreme heat, underscores the urgency of mitigation, and presents pathways to strengthen resilience and sustainability across agricultural sectors.
135 articles in 58 journals by 831 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Antarctic Bottom Water in a changing climate, Jacobs, Nature Reivews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-025-00750-2
Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate, Chambers et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y
The relative contribution of physical processes leading the May 2024 heat wave in Cuba using a novel temperature anomaly analysis, Pérez-Alarcón et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100827
Observations of climate change, effects
Brief communication: Tropical glaciers on Puncak Jaya (Irian Jaya/West Papua, Indonesia) close to extinction, Ibel et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-415
Declining number of northern hemisphere land-surface frozen days under global warming and thinner snowpacks, Hatami et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03059-6
In Situ Temperature Trends of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current South of South Africa, Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023030
The 2025 Blatten disaster in the Swiss Alps followed exceptional warming and highlights the vulnerability of people and heritage in glaciated landscapes, Büntgen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02994-8
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A Statistically Based Method to Estimate Long-Term Daily Air Temperature at High Elevations, Bongio et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70208
Evaluation of GOSAT-IM, NASA-GEOS and NOAA-CT terrestrial ecosystem and oceanic flux datasets using the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the seasonal cycle of tropospheric CO2, Krishnapriya et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121719
Integrating non-stationarity and uncertainty in design life levels based on climatological time series, Barbaux et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100807
Marine Heatwave Event Maps in the Baltic Sea (1982–2023): A Gridded Dataset from Satellite-Derived L4 SST, Bashiri et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-06251-7
Understanding Decision-Maker Needs for Extreme Event Attribution Science, Bourbon et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100842
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Climate change projections over mid-high latitudes Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM5 Simulations, TANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.001
Detectability of Post-Net Zero Climate Changes and the Effects of Delay in Emissions Cessation, King et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006918
Dissimilar global record-breaking heatwave exposure driven by divergent population projections within shared socioeconomic pathways, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100838
Energy-Consumption-Induced Anthropogenic Heat Release Intensifies Heatwaves and Wildfire Threats in North America: A CESM2-Based Projection for the Late 21st Century, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044290
Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance and future climate projections over the Genale dawa river basin, Ethiopia, Chanie, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-29498-x
Future Projections of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the MDR and Wider Caribbean Region: Utilising CMIP6 GCM Ensembles, Hibbert et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70206
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change, Kaufhold et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02867-0
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
CMIP6 models cannot capture long-term forced changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, Byrne et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-66839-w
CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities, Ruane et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-3408
Comparison of precipitation parameterizations in Regional Climate Model (RegCM5): a case study of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Keshta et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-9791-2025
Downscaling daily climate data with super-resolution and CMIP6 global climate models to predict the climate in China, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.007
Evaluating uncertainty in global wave storm characteristics using CMIP6-derived wave climate simulations with SWAN and WAVEWATCH III models, Kumar et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105214
Future Projections of Marine Heatwaves in the Northern Indian Ocean Using the HighResMIP Models: Role of Horizontal Resolution and Percentile Thresholds, Mishra et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70197
Neglecting vertical transport leads to underestimated soil carbon dynamics, Amundson et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01846-6
Toward Co-Designed Earth System Models: Reflecting End-User Priorities in Local Applications From a Modeler's Perspective, Cheng et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001921
Validation of climate mitigation pathways, Weigmann et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2284
Cryosphere & climate change
Arctic regional changes revealed by clustering of sea-ice observations, Simon et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-704
Brief communication: Tropical glaciers on Puncak Jaya (Irian Jaya/West Papua, Indonesia) close to extinction, Ibel et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-415
Effects of Sediment-Laden Subglacial Discharge on Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Seabed Evolution, Papapetros et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023422
From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Coulon et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
Mapping sea ice concentration using Nimbus-5 ESMR and local dynamical tie points, Tellefsen et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-660
Multi-model estimate of Antarctic ice-shelf basal mass budget and ocean drivers, Galton-Fenzi et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025
Observations of turbulent mixing in the Dotson Ice Shelf cavity, Richter et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-3341-2025
The glacial systems model (GSM) Version 25G, Tarasov et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-9565-2025
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Glacial-interglacial records of redox-sensitive proxies in the intermediate Southwest Pacific: Implications for changes in oxygenation, Hu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105178
Has rising bottom water temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum caused gas hydrate dissociation?, Cheng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105217
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate driven divergence of growth resilience of Picea crassifolia from semi-arid to semi-humid habitats, Guo et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126428
Climate warming reduces soil gaseous nitrogen losses in a temperate forest, Huang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2513401122
Contrasting climate oscillations impacts on phytoplankton in the western and eastern tropical Pacific, An et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65947-x
Delayed senescence end prolongs leaf senescence duration in temperate China, Lu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110938
Dramatic decline of Sargassum in the north Sargasso Sea since 2015, Zhang et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01863-5
Editorial: Indonesian mangrove ecology and the changing climate, Murdiyarso et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1718325
Effects of Future Climate Extreme Heat Events and Land Use Changes on Land Vertebrates, Vardi et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70625
ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate, Zhou et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66987-z
Equatorial upwelling of phosphorus drives Atlantic N2 fixation and Sargassum blooms, Jung et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01812-2
Fine-Grain Data Reveal Vulnerability of Biodiversity to Climate Change, Lu & Jetz, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70627
Flower–leaf sequence shapes plant phenological sensitivity to warming, Xia et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70210
Forest-savanna stability in India under human interventions and changing climate, Dubey et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03076-5
Functional traits and individual tree growth relationship weakens with stand development but strengthens with increasing temperature, Shan et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70182
MaxEnt Prediction of Seriphidium transiliense Habitats in China: Integrating Climate Change and Human Activity Effects, Li et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72641
Mesoamerican beliefs sculpted in jadeite, Manrique-Ortega et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01852-8
Rapid shifts in bryophyte phenology revealed by airborne eDNA, Bengtsson et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70180
Shifting optimal preseason length alters temperature effects on leaf senescence, Guo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110953
The impact of an unprecedented hotter drought on oak growth was related to climate of origin, Camarero et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1730405
The interacting effects of climate and land-cover change on bird communities in the United States, Thompson et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07949
Warming conditions reduce the impacts of an aquatic invasive macrophyte across a latitudinal gradient, Muthukrishnan & Kalinowski, Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70171
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Dynamics of China's forest carbon storage: the first 30 m annual aboveground biomass mapping from 1985 to 2023, Cai et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-6993-2025
Enhanced CO2 emissions driven by flooding in a simulation of palsa degradation, Laurent et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8852
Measurement report: Mobile measurements to estimate urban methane emissions in Tokyo, Umezawa et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-18015-2025
Neglecting vertical transport leads to underestimated soil carbon dynamics, Amundson et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01846-6
Permafrost Thaw Accelerates Old Soil Carbon Release, Outpacing New Plant Inputs During a 13-Year Tundra Warming Experiment, Lathrop et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70609
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Underestimated Carbon Losses as Dissolved Organic Carbon in Forested Headwater Streams, Liu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008684
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Reducing the large short-lived impact of methane emissions with temporary carbon removals, Venmans et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02511-x
Responsible research and innovation of carbon removal: strategies for field trials, Waller et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1658453
Temporary carbon dioxide removals to offset methane emissions, Venmans et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02487-8
Decarbonization
Advancements in solar power tower technology: innovations in optical systems and heliostat field design, Aslam et al., Journal of the Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences and Engineering 10.1007/s40430-025-06086-8
Can wind energy help West Virginia off its coal-mining addiction?, De Weerdt et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104478
Decarbonizing residential space heating with heat pumps in the United States, Shafiee & Schrag, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114997
Economies of scale matter: how refuelling infrastructure policy affects the viability of alternative fuel trucks, Pérez-Bravo et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114976
From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system, Schreyer et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z
Global carbon neutrality progress assessment and typology classification in 2025, LI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.003
Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67428-7
Structural lock-ins in tourism decarbonization and the alternative, Liu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02502-y
Unlocking geothermal potential in abandoned hydrocarbon and exploration wells: a sustainable energy solution, Ali Khan et al., Arabian Journal of Geosciences 10.1007/s12517-025-12393-0
Geoengineering climate
Carbonate System Site Selection Characteristics for Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in the US Northeast Shelf and Slope, Rheuban et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009063
Solar Geoengineering Strategies Based on Reinforcement Learning, Quan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044319
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Communication as Statecraft: A Content Analysis of Climate Change Communication from Caribbean Governments and Press, Anderson et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2597444
Recognizing climate change as global: Implications for environmental psychology research, Tam, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102856
The “Truth” About NGOs: How the Brazilian Media Frames the Attempt to Criminalize Socio-environmental Organizations, Salles et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2596623
Understanding Late Adolescents’ Moral Responsibility for Climate Change: The Role of Social-Ecological Factors, Worry, and Distancing, Martinsson et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102879
Understanding the strengths and limitations of community-based responses to misinformation, Vraga, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2524004122
When Experts Speak Louder: The Limited Influence of Climate Citizens’ Assemblies on Misperceptions, Suiter et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2586668
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Enhancing climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year climate warming, Wang et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088
Fencing the Flux: Seasonal Trends, Environmental Drivers, and Mitigation Opportunities of Methane Emissions From Farm Dams, Odebiri et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70637
Harvesting resilience: the role of social capital in driving adaptive behaviour among Iranian farmers, Yazdanpanah et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2592072
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Pest and Host Associations That Transcend Time: Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Grape Berry Moth (Paralobesia viteana) and Its Hosts Vitis riparia and Vitis labrusca in North America, Gómez?Llano et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.72612
Rooted in crisis, growing solutions: economic impacts and adaptive pathways for Fiji’s climate-threatened sugarcane industry, Khan & Yun, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1690723
The carbon footprint of the farming of edible brown alga Sargassum naozhouense, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107738
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Climate Change Likely to Intensify Storm-Driven Compound Flooding in an Exemplar UK Estuary, Lyddon et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005822
From climate change to dam construction: A multi-stressor analysis of global river water temperature change, Gao et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100778
Physical Predictand Drivers and Characteristics of Aridity Across East Africa, Ayugi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70212
Robust circulation changes in the tropics under a warming climate: a topical review, Thomas & Bala, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1713513
Spatiotemporal Changes of Drought Conditions Over the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region During the Recent Century: Insights for Climate Adaptation, Ebaju et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70217
Unlocking resilience: exploring climate dynamics in small-scale irrigation systems of Sissala West District of north-western Ghana, Susan et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1733615
Climate change economics
Balancing growth and decarbonization: Political economy dynamics in China's 2060 carbon neutrality strategy, Khan & Wang, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101897
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessment of climate awareness, policy development, and action across Nigerian states, Okereke et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1650172
Climate Change Research in Low- and Middle-Gross Domestic Product Countries: Producing Policy-Relevant Knowledge Amid Scarce Funding, Murray?Tortarolo, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009403
Climate commitments and democratic contradictions: India’s Panchamrit policy in comparative south Asian perspective, Thomas & Antony, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2596754
Drivers and barriers of public support for environmental policy: Insights into climate policy feasibility and efficiency, Areia & Tavares, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104489
Global Insights Into Consumption-Based Carbon Emission Accounting: A Systematic Review, Pan et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1111/ghg.70000
Just business? Rethinking the role of small and medium enterprise climate action through a just transition lens, Eadson et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104480
Relaunching the Italian energy transition: Are incumbent electric utilities moving from resistance to support?, Prontera et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104452
UNFCCC carbon trading could undermine global climate action, Lezak et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02517-5
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Adaptive labour: a typology of climate (im)mobilities and structured stillness in tourism contexts, Le, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2592260
Climate Change and Wildfire Resilience: Assessing Rural Community Wildfire Protection Plans in the Pacific Northwest, Steel & Wolters, Public Organization Review 10.1007/s11115-025-00969-z
Conceptualizing Meso-Level Organizations and Their Relations to Catalyze Transformative Climate Adaptation, Welch et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70034
Financial regulation for climate resilience: a comparative analysis across African economies, D'Orazio, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2598683
From City Wisdom to Corporate Action: Climate-Adaptive City Construction and Corporate Environmental Responsibility, Lei & Xu, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0136.1
Life after climate-related planned relocation: a review of well-being outcomes, Piggott-McKellar et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2592262
Projections of global road risk exposed to landslides under climate change, Duan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03073-8
The State of Climate Resilience and Water Governance in the City of Toronto: Advancing Adaptation at the Climate–Water Interface Through Baseline Assessment Research, Bassone?Quashie & Johns, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70025
“It's politics, not processes:” Challenges to climate adaptation planning in Tulsa, Oklahoma, VanBuskirk & Mullenbach, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102732
Climate change impacts on human health
Accelerated attainment of global air quality standards with disproportional health co-benefits under the 1.5 °C target, Xie et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67276-5
Climate Hazard Mortality: Diagnosing Trends and Outliers, Cael, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119218
Climate sensitivity is widely but unevenly spread across zoonotic diseases, Trebski et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2422851122
The impact of climate change induced extreme weather events on microbial dynamics and public health: an in-depth review on water quality and ecosystem resilience, Huang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1674490
“Heat is a danger to my health even though I said I am used to it”: Qualitative insights of workplace heat among community health workers and health promoters in Kenya, Maina et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000748
Climate change & geopolitics
Africa’s climate leadership and health resilience: insights from the 2nd Africa Climate Summit, Addis Ababa, 2025, Tahlil, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1706512
Emerging pathways in climate litigation: Transnational justice and the Global South, Varma et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103084
Other
Indigenous women-led climate crisis solutions from decolonial feminist perspectives in Western Canada, Chapola et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104272
The climate crisis and EU in the Anthropocene: May European Green Deal affect asbestos removal?, Wilk & Krówczy?ska, The Anthropocene Review Open Access 10.1177/20530196251399162
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Critical science for the next decade of climate risk management, Parsons et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770
The Indian Ocean disaster is a climate tragedy — and needs more attention, Rochmyaningsih, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03973-x
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Abyei, Seyuba et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The Abyei Administrative Area, a disputed territory that lies between Sudan and South Sudan, faces complex interconnected challenges. Communities in Abyei largely depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods such as cattle herding, farming and seasonal migration. Increased flooding and prolonged dry spells in recent years have reduced crop yields, affected livestock rearing and displaced households, which has deepened existing livelihood and security challenges. Limited basic services and poor infrastructure, combined with weak governance, constrain the coping capacities of local communities and increase their need for humanitarian assistance. Yet funding cuts and insecurity have led some humanitarian organizations to scale back operations, while the civil war in Sudan continues to increase humanitarian needs in Abyei. The territory’s disputed status further impedes long-term development planning to address interconnected challenges, including climate-related security risks.
Rising heat, rising risk : policy pathways for regional resilience (Asia/Pacific), Srivastava et al., The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
The sun’s rays strike the Earth without regard for national borders. In Asia and the Pacific, rising temperatures are impacting all, everywhere. Disaster risks are expanding and intensifying as temperatures rise with serious consequences not only for human health but also for socio-economic-environmental systems. The frequency and scale of weather events resulting from rising temperatures can range from extensive floods to intense storms, to prolonged drought, expanding desertification and giving rise to new corridors of sand and dust storms. In fact, the fastest growing climate hazards are from rising temperatures. The authors assess recent as well as long-term trends. Based on the latest projections, they distill cascading impacts for multiple types of infrastructure, and interrelated food, water and energy systems. They identify troubling impacts on health systems, labor productivity, livelihoods and human well-being, with vulnerable people among those disproportionately impacted by these projections.
Highlights from the extreme heat and agriculture report, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization
The authors explore the impact of extreme heat on agricultural producers and on crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and forests worldwide. Drawing on recent scientific evidence and country case studies, they highlight the independent and compound risks posed by extreme heat, underscores the urgency of mitigation, and presents pathways to strengthen resilience and sustainability across agricultural sectors.
The free degrees. How sustainable, passive-first cooling can save lives, money and food, Abdelaziz et al., United Nations Environment Program
The authors take a deep dive into one of the decade’s most urgent challenges: surging heat, soaring cooling demand, and stark inequalities in access. Building on the 2023 edition’s analysis of global sustainable cooling trends, the report provides the scientific foundation for the Global Cooling Pledge and charts pathways toward near-zero emissions from cooling.
Projected increase in cooling demand to 2050 in C40 cities, Christina Xiao and Honorine van den Broek d Obrenan, C40 Cities
As the global temperature rises, local cooling demand will rise with it. As cooling demand increases, inequities in access to cooling will also increase. This research, developed with Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) and Berkeley Earth, explores projected cooling demand in C40 cities up to 2050, compared with measured demand in 2020. Results will also be indicative of potential cooling demand for other cities in similar contexts and climates.
Smart Buys: High-Value Actions for Health Sector Adaptation, Rabie et al., The World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and KfW
Climate change is intensifying health risks worldwide, amplifying disease burdens, and exposing vulnerable populations to new and worsening threats, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The authors offer countries a set of options of adaptable, cost-beneficial actions to strengthen health sector adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change. They identify eight promising, high-value actions for health sector adaptation.
Extreme Heat, Gender and Health - A dialogue towards climate resilient adaptation, Kumar et al., Multiple
India's rapidly growing cities are becoming dangerous for pregnant women as extreme heat combines with inadequate housing and fragmented health systems to create life-threatening conditions. The Heat in Pregnancy – India (HiP-I) project brought together leading experts to examine this escalating crisis and identify urgent solutions. Policies must be tailored to local realities. India-specific research is necessary to understand the impact of heat on pregnancy, and early warning systems should incorporate humidity and nighttime temperatures, rather than focusing solely on peak daytime heat. Coordination across sectors is essential. Governance fragmentation leaves pregnant women in informal settlements without protection, while urban planning, health systems, water management, and housing policy continue to operate in silos. Breaking these silos is key to effective adaptation.
Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025. An Assessment of the Global System and Strategies for Transformative Change, Dillon et al., Pew Charitable Trusts
The authors draw on an improved information landscape to provide a deeper understanding of the environmental, economic, health and social impacts of plastic. They also explore the global plastic system’s influence on efforts to address some of the world’s greatest challenges. Their aim is to support and encourage decision makers as they respond to critical global issues, evaluate trade-offs and implement solutions.
Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market: CEO Guide to Growth in the Green Economy, Bayley et. al., World Economic Forum and the Boston Consulting Group
Despite recent headlines suggesting the climate transition is stalling, overall growth in green investments has not wavered. Worth over $5 trillion per year – the green economy is the world’s most dynamic growth sector after technology. Green revenues are growing twice as fast as conventional revenues on average and companies operating in these markets typically gain access to cheaper capital and often enjoy premium valuations on capital markets.
Flexible Data Centers: A Faster, More Affordable Path to Power, Brancucci et al., Camus, encoord, and Princeton ZERO Lab
Using real utility transmission models and system-level capacity analysis, this reveals how flexible grid connections and bring-your-own capacity can unlock faster, more affordable access to power. Designed for utilities, data center developers, regulators, and industry analysts, the authors offer the first repeatable blueprint for evaluating flexible data centers.
State of the Climate in the Arab Region 2024, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, League of Arab States, World Meteorological Organization
Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, threatening water availability and agriculture. Extreme events in 2024, including heatwaves and floods, caused over 300 reported deaths, with actual human and economic losses likely higher. Nearly 60% of Arab countries now operate multi-hazard early warning systems, above the global average, but still insufficient given the scale of risks. The authors emphasize water security as a top regional priority, as 15 of the world’s 20 most water-scarce countries are located in the Arab region. They review current policy frameworks, adaptation measures, and innovative solutions aimed at building long-term resilience.
Sustainable investment: plateauing or poised for growth?, FTSE Russell
Sustainable investment has faced continuing pressure over 2025, but most asset owners remain concerned about sustainability factors and are applying a wide range of strategies to address them. Asset owners are increasingly concerned about the risks posed by sustainability issues, particularly climate change: 85% cited it as a major concern. Climate remains the priority, however diversity and inclusion, and human capital are also rated as important. The percentage of assets owners implementing sustainable investment products is high at 73% and has been steady for a few years.
Climate Change Accountability Report 2025, CleanBC
The authors provide the most recent data on British Columbia's progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, along with projections on where the province could stand in 2030, based on historical data and energy-economy modelling. Although the current suite of climate policies does not put the Province on track to meet its 2030 targets, this year’s modelling results suggest that CleanBC is working to drive emissions down below where they would otherwise have been without CleanBC. There are early signs that the Province’s actual emission, as reported through the Provincial Inventory, are decreasing, i.e., trending in the same direction as the implemented policy scenario projections. This report includes progress across multiple areas.
Extreme Heat and the Shrinking Diurnal Range. A Global Evaluation of Oppressive Air Mass Character and Frequency, Kalkstein et al., Climate Resilience for All
As country leaders focus on avoiding breaching the +1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, nighttime temperatures in cities are soaring at a rate of as much as 10 times higher than daytime temperatures. The authors examine how nighttime temperatures are rising at alarming rates in cities across the globe. The authors found that cities are not only experiencing on average an extra day of extreme heat every six years, but also—even more alarmingly—nighttime temperatures are rising much more rapidly than daytime highs in a majority of the cities worldwide. Women are particularly vulnerable to nighttime heat. Physiological factors make them more sensitive to higher temperatures, and societal norms and inequalities amplify their risk. Often shouldering a greater burden of care for older relatives and the sick, it is usually a woman who stays awake when their family member cannot sleep, sacrificing her own rest and recovery, to care for them. And gender norms, or the threat of violence can keep women from sleeping outside or with windows open, making thermal relief even harder to find.
Cooling the Cloud. Water Utilities in a Data-Driven World, American Water Works Association
As AI and digital services expand, data centers are emerging as increasingly common and high-impact customers for water utilities. The authors provide a comprehensive overview of how data centers affect water utilities and communities, examining increased water demands and costs, infrastructure strain, and the need to assess alternative water supplies.
Land availability and land-use changes in Africa, Phillan Zamchiya and Charity Rusere, The Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa
The authors challenge one of the most persistent and harmful myths shaping Africa’s development agenda — the idea that the continent holds vast expanses of “unused” or “underutilized” land waiting to be transformed into industrial farms or carbon markets. The authors expose how this colonial-era narrative continues to justify large-scale land acquisitions, displacements, and ecological destruction in the name of progress. Drawing on extensive literature reviews, satellite data, and interviews with farmers in Zambia, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, the authors systematically dismantles five false assumptions that underpin the “land abundance” narrative.
Small Modular Distractors: Why a European SMR strategy hinders the energy transition, Climate Action Network Europe
Small modular reactors (SMR) are not a viable solution to decarbonizing our energy system and supporting a transition to net zero. The technology has not been demonstrated at any sort of scale, with great unknowns when it comes to design. The authors detail how SMR projects have been shown to be significantly delayed compared to initial estimates, are slower to construct than traditional nuclear, consistently over budget, more expensive than renewables, not economically fit to provide flexibility, not very small, deter funding away from realistic renewable solutions, produce more waste than traditional nuclear, and citizens have little trust in their governments to implement plans fairly. They are also planned under the assumption that the governments would take responsibility and invest in enabling infrastructure such as grids and nuclear storage facilities.
A future we choose. Why investing in Earth now can lead to a trillion-dollar benefit for all, Abiye et al., United Nations Environment Programme
The report is a product of 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries. It is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment ever carried out. The authors calls on all actors to acknowledge the urgency of the global environmental crises, build on progress made in recent decades, and collaborate in the co-design and implementation of integrated policies, strategies and actions to deliver a better future for all.
FLIP the Script. The Free, Local, Immediate, and Persuasive Co-Benefits of Climate Action, Clark et al., George Washington University's Climate and Health Institute
The authors present a new framework that highlights the Free, Local, Immediate, and Persuasive co-benefits of climate action. they offer practical guidance for policymakers, advocates, researchers, and journalists on how to apply the FLIP framework to accelerate meaningful climate progress. Through 22 global case studies, the authors “flip” the script on the notion that climate action is costly and its effects distant, demonstrating how its benefits can be felt locally and immediately. The case studies exemplify actions across 6 major emissions sectors—power, buildings, transport, forests & land, food & agriculture, and industry—showcasing the FLIP health, economic, social, and environmental co-benefits of real climate actions around the world.
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